Russia and economic war by the west

JohninMK wrote:Luke Gromen
@LukeGromen
·
8h
Russia's currency is nominally the RUB, but Russia's currency functionally is oil and gas, and this currency is rising against every other currency in the world.  

This seems like a subtle but important nuance many are ignoring but which gives Russia some unappreciated options.

That's a gross misrepresentation of the ruble.

Ruble isn't defined by its exports.

But I understand what he is trying to say.

We are seeing degraded western states (USA and their vassals) waging a total economic war on Russia, trying hard to achieve total isolation and destruction of the nation. What shall Russia do to overcome this hardship and eventually lead to be the victor, or at least cause an equal damage (the worse the better imo) to those racist Nazis?

Some unfriendly measures those "partners" took toward Russia:
- Arm Ukraine Nazis
- Ban, block, censor Russian media and spread fake news, disinformation
- Sanction everything Russian, remove/suspend membership
- Bully ordinary Russian
- etc.

Russia needs to completely cut off SWIFT. NATzO terrorists can't have their cake and eat it too. They should feel the pain
of their need for Russian energy and resources (e.g. vital components for IC manufacturing such as palladium). Russia does
not need SWIFT. SWIFT is used by NATzO to track financial transactions. It is just a stupid messaging system and not a
payment system.

Russia has already pulled the right response to the attack on the ruble. It imposed an 80% forex sale for rubles requirement for
exporters. This generates sustained demand for rubles. The 20% CBR rate hike is actually a smart move. It is needed for
the short term stabilization of the inflation spike from the forex drop. The spike is mostly psychological but is real. So damping
it early is mandatory. The short term pain on the domestic borrowing markets is a small price to pay. The borrowing can be
delayed by a year. Actually, it is not that Draconian since there are other financing schemes that the Russian government has
already deployed. That is, Russian companies can get government money at reasonable rates. If inflation is clamped, then
the government does not lose anything.

I would not call it economic war by west - more western economical blockade of Russia.

Sanctions will damage in general global economy as well as Russian and US/EU.

For Russia on long term it will be very difficult to counter all sanctions so apart of quick disruption there will be also real long term effects - slower economical growth, less international links, impact on tourism, banking, high-tech, military and even energy industry.
Also we should be aware that as situation escalates more in Ukraine sanctions will get more strong and bite more of Russian economy. However Russian economy will survive and sanctions will not force country to change its course.

For me right now is big question what will happen with Russian energy links with the west. In that area actually Russia has strong cards and any disruption there will really hurt west. Still signs are not good since there are indications that even that is on the table if war in Ukraine is not stopped quickly. Reason is very simple - there is not much what west can do against Russia other than sanctions and since there is no way that humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine can be justified - west has to react by something.

And for this forum those sanctions will mean even more slower acquisition of modern weaponry and new modern and sophisticated military products for Russia since development time and needed resources for it will increase substantially and priority would become stabilization of economy.

https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/7385

Follow the money: how Russia will bypass western economic warfare

Good article.

And for this forum those sanctions will mean even more slower acquisition of modern weaponry and new modern and sophisticated military products for Russia since development time and needed resources for it will increase substantially and priority would become stabilization of economy.

Of course... Russian weapons and equipment and Russian research and development all rely on the west... the Zircon was developed in Paris and it was 3D printed in Germany made out of materials that the Dutch developed from special cheese they produce from their asses.

Banning EU food imports did not cause massive starvation in Russia, but it did cause a massive boom in the food production industry that previously simply could not compete with cheap EU food with all their dirty little subsidies and government support.

Russian military equipment is already likely 99-100% Russian made or will have to be soon enough.

I believe Russia will stop trying to build bridges with the west and will start developing its own replacements for what the west provided, or find them in the rest of the world.

Most consumer goods it will easily get from China or make itself.... and ironically when all this shit cools down I rather suspect a few EU countries will do their very best to return to the Russian market.

They are not in the Russian market for fun or to help Russia out... they made investments and are making good returns, or they would not have bothered.

Next russian move will be to shit on western property rights/patents and so on.

I think that Russia should apply its own asymmetric sanctions on the West. We know that the US is behind this agitation and the EU are just US vassals. Remember Victoria Nuland's, "**** the EU". The US is doing this to undermine both European and Russian industry, prevent closer ties, and enrich its own MIC. This way the US remove the possibility of Europe getting out of its orbit and thus its own isolation against Eurasia.

Boeing has massive airplane production sitting to be delivered. Because of 737 MAX debacle and COVID-19. Their more modern aircraft like 787 and 777X are the ones which use the most Russian titanium export. I think Russia should selectively block titanium exports to Boeing and not to Airbus. And Russia should limit export of raw titanium exports, giving preference to sale of whole parts, so the titanium cannot be repurposed easily and be much more expensive.

Russia should try to recruit Boeing engineers in Moscow and Kiev (around 1000 on each site) to work on CR929 program and military civilian transport projects Il-112V, Il-276, and PAK-VTA. They should make a building in Moscow and put all the engineers in it working on military civilian transport projects. Make another building in Kiev, and put all those people working on CR929.

Russia could simply do a blanket ban where no foreign operated Boeing aircraft can fly over Russian airspace. Or severely limit the number of these aircraft. Or charge for their passage. Put a toll in place so to speak. This would require proper software support for Russian aircraft tracking. Inspection that they aren't bypassing the toll might be difficult. But something to consider. Perhaps rely on transponder code to identify aircraft make and type and make sure Boeing aircraft paid for its transit.

Russia should ban export of nuclear fuel to whole NATO and claim it is dual use. Russia should only sell fuel in rods to Russian design reactors in ze West. Once spent rods should be returned back to Russia. Russia should ban export of rare gases to Western semiconductor and semiconductor tools companies. They should ban the sale of sapphire crystal to select US companies which make silicon on sapphire chips for US MIC such as Peregrine Semiconductor.

Russia should pass similar laws to the ones China passed after US sanctions on semiconductors. i.e. tax exemptions for semiconductor companies in Russia. Tariff exemptions or cuts on imports of certain machine tools from China not manufactured in Russia. Russia should make centers of excellence for semiconductors around existing sites and energize the sector with purchases. Put tariffs on consumer electronics products on a sliding scale which increases with percentage of US content in them. Russia should give money for Russian chip designers to port their designs from Taiwanese and Japanese factories to Chinese ones. These dealings should be kept secret. And chips should be sent as wafers from China and packaged in Russia to disguise their factory of origin. Manufacture should be of chips up to 28nm. Russia should license this Chinese process and upgrade its fabrication facilities to build that 28nm fab the Russian industry has wanted for years with all Chinese tools when they become available.

Russia should stop enforcing copyright on all US movies and music. Not drop copyright. Just not enforce it. Russia should create NGO similar to Pirate Party in Russia and let it run BitTorrent server ala RuTorrent in .su domain.

Last but not least these sanctions should be coordinated in part with other members of the Eurasian Economic Union. Namely all the ones with regards to strategic materials or airline traffic.

Russia should demand at least part of their oil and gas exports to ze West be paid in gold or Yuan. All oil and gas trade in dollars should cease and be exchanged for, gold, Yuan, local currency, or Euros. Russia should make an online transaction platform for currency exchange. Companies like Gazprom and Rosneft should switch listings from London to Shanghai.

Putin has already said the Russian sanctions in response wont match exactly the sanctions the west imposes... giving him free reign to give them some real hurt.

If they allow Russia to use SWIFT only for gas and oil payments then Russia should completely withdraw from SWIFT.

If the US does not ban rare earth minerals from Russia... because they need them obviously... then...

Stopping the sale of raw materials and only selling finished parts or products is a good one, but Boeing engineers would be a happy hunting ground for the CIA to find a few patriots wanting to screw up a programme... let them go... train up your own.

Stop producing bitcointraitors and fudgefund managers and get back to producing engineers and scientists...

The european countries banning Russian airline overflights already give you the list of countries to ban from overflights of Russian airspace.

They wont need to ban western aircraft from Russian airlines as I suspect they wont get parts anyway.

Russia should demand at least part of their oil and gas exports to ze West be paid in gold or Yuan. All oil and gas trade in dollars should cease and be exchanged for, gold, Yuan, local currency, or Euros.

Not Euros... the EU has already tried to use their currency against Russia, it should now be treated like the US dollar.

Putin and his government are going to have some fun working out what buttons to push, which will be good for them as they are no doubt very stressed about the operation in the Ukraine. Every death probably hurts them more than us and except for the nazis on both sides too.

The ultimate game will likely to be separation from the US controlled west for the foreseeable future... does it make sense to stretch it out and led them adapt to the pain hit by hit... or cut it all off at once and really do some damage, while taking a bit more damage in return?

Russia is holding back major counter sanctions, I believe. Wondering what are those "nuclear" options on Putin's table.

And Russian cats slapped with sanctions
"Felines owned by Russians have been banned from international competitions as punishment for Moscow’s attack on Ukraine".

That's the limit.

Russia is waiting for NATzO and its pals to blow their full wad before slapping them silly.

It's funny watching Kanada trying to be the lead chihuahua in this doggie parade. Clown show country run by a retarded clown.

https://russtrat-ru.translate.goog/news/2-marta-2022-1930-9107?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Germany in the sanctions war with Russia will last no more than six months
An energy crisis comparable to the beginning of the 70s of the last century may break out, which “will throw the European economy back decades”

Well the thing is in economic and finance world - Russia will lose much more compared to West, there is no doubt about that. That is reason why it makes sense from western point to introduce it even if it will hurt their own economies too.

So far sanctions were used against smaller countries - like Cuba, North Korea or Venezuela.

Iran was one of the largest so far.

All in all results was never satisfactory or "successful", neither of those countries succumbed. But they did lost momentum and fall away from global economical development and their neighbors for example. So price was payed by ordinary population and their worsening income positions - so sanctions are very much problematic since they punish people that have nothing to do with root causes of dispute in reality.

So for Russia on long term there would be some symbolic consequences, like prestige, not be able to do smoothly international transactions etc... but they would be also political, Russia would be perceived as authoritarian, rogue state, one that is dangerous and that needs to be contained. On that front sanctions would gain some results since Putin will have to rely on his domestic power more than anything so administration and management of the country would be suppressing even more opposition. So some intellectuals and artists would leave the country and society would become more uniform and simple... if Russia is isolated very long.

rigoletto wrote:Germany in the sanctions war with Russia will last no more than six months

I think six months is overly optimistic on her part. I would guess three months. Perhaps even less when you consider they are storing gas for other countries.
Until recently the Yamal-LNG pipeline was still running in reverse from Germany to Poland.

kvs wrote:Russia is waiting for NATzO and its pals to blow their full wad before slapping them silly.

It's funny watching Kanada trying to be the lead chihuahua in this doggie parade.   Clown show country run by a retarded clown.

Cunuckold Land and U-Kronieland are soul mates then...both of their leaders are laughing stocks.

BP's 20% stake in Rossneft accounted for 65% of its earnings.

Retard is as retard does.

Impact of sanctions on Russian civil shipbuilding

March 3rd, 11:36 pm
The St. Petersburg newspaper Fontanka.ru published an article by Lev Godovannik “So far shock. After the sanctions, shipyards are calm only about icebreakers. Engines from China, electronics from Aurora, dollars and euros in suitcases, but there is a big question with processors. "Fontanka" found out the current prospects for Russian civil shipbuilding " .

The main supplies from the EU countries for the construction of our civilian ships are high-power engines and processors. The first can be tried to be replaced in China, the prospect of replacing the latter is not yet clear. Alexander Buyanov, Deputy General Director of the Central Research Institute of the Marine Fleet, spoke about this in more detail :

- Russian shipyards receive from Europe almost all marine engines for civil shipbuilding. These are diesel generators, to which there is practically no alternative. We produce analogues of low power, but when we talk about power from a megawatt, there are quite a few options.

Will it have to be created from scratch?

- Not only this. A striking feature of Russian manufacturers of marine equipment is the complete absence of modern service. The Russian manufacturer supplies some equipment to the shipyard, it is installed, but sooner or later something breaks. Here it turns out that the manufacturer does not provide any repairs or supply of spare parts, not only to the main ports of the world - to Russian ports! Their principle: if it's broken - bring it - we'll fix it. Any shipowner knows that it is impossible to imagine the equipment of, for example, the Finnish shipbuilding concern Wärtsilä without uninterrupted supplies of spare parts to most ports of the world. In Russia, now, apparently, there will be neither ship equipment of this company, nor its service.

— And what about the power equipment for nuclear icebreakers?

“Nuclear reactors, turbogenerators, electric motors and even shafts to which rotation is transmitted are made in Russia, there are no problems here – in the production of icebreakers we are practically independent of foreign manufacturers. But there is also a supply of components.

- And where do the engines on our ships come from?

- Mostly Finnish Wärtsilä, German MAN, in third place is Chinese WinGD.

- Can WinGD completely replace the first two, which, as I understand it, will not give us anything in the foreseeable future?

- I think yes. In fact, there are completely localized technologies of the Swiss Sulzer and Wärtsilä. They make large deliveries to the international market, WinGD engines are put on container ships and large bulk carriers.

- Now our shipbuilding will depend on China?

- I wouldn't put the question that way. Still, we are living the third day in the new conditions - we have to wait. Moreover, Russia is too large a segment of the global shipbuilding industry.

- Probably, there will be problems with the ship's electronics?

- On icebreakers, it is all domestic - from NPO Avrora. This electronics is of quite decent quality, but the question is in the volume and scale of supplies. The big question is whether Aurora will be able to deliver to all ships in Russia.

“But we don’t know how to make microchips."

- Do not know how. AMD and Intel refused to supply them, which will hit shipbuilding just like everyone else. After all, the ship control system is essentially the same personal computer. What could be the way out... honestly, I don't know, and my colleagues don't either. Now everyone is in shock. There are, of course, Russian Elbrus technologies that supply chips to the military and government agencies, but as far as I've heard, there are a lot of complaints.

- A lot depends on South Korea at the Zvezda plant built by Rosneft in Bolshoy Kamen. It looks like the Koreans will join in the refusal of supplies.

- It is sad. With their participation, Zvezda is building gas carriers and tankers of high ice class for Novatek and Rosneft projects in the Arctic. Based on these plans, forecasts are made for the production of gas and oil and the export of their derivatives. If there are no gas carriers and tankers, the chain will collapse.

There is still no full understanding of the scale of the impact of foreign sanctions on Russian shipbuilding. But the shipyards that are part of the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation will have to forget about currency accounts. Sergei Glandin, Head of Sanctions Law and Compliance Practice at Pen&Paper Bar Association, spoke about this :

— It is still too early to sum up the results of sanctions against Russian shipbuilding. Do you know the stages of a person's response to stress? Shock, denial, depression, bargaining, acceptance. We are now in the stage of shock, sanctions are just being introduced, it is not entirely clear what exactly they are, new sanctions will appear in a few more days. I think by the end of the week the current stage of this process will be completed, and we will come to the transition from depression to acceptance - then a lot will become clearer.

- The first sanctions against the main owner of Russian shipyards - the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation - appeared back in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea.

- Quite right, but now Promsvyazbank has undergone blocking sanctions, where most of the shipbuilding plants associated with the defense industry are serviced. Clients of this bank who have foreign currency accounts will not be able to use them. Promsvyazbank can now only work with rubles, and those who wish to operate in foreign currency will have to open accounts in international banking groups - in Raiffeisen or Uni-credit, for example.

Promsvyazbank serves nine large industrial enterprises in the region, one way or another connected with shipbuilding, including military ones:

Federal State Unitary Enterprise Morozov Plant
Federal State Unitary Enterprise "Krylovsky SSC"
JSC Baltiysky Zavod
PJSC "Vyborg Shipbuilding Plant"
JSC "KB Arsenal"
PJSC SZ Severnaya Verf
JSC Plant Kirov-Energomash
JSC "MZ Arsenal"
NWRC East Kazakhstan region "Almaz-Antey"

- Will USC enterprises be able to do this?

- Not anymore. This is only for those who did not fall under the sanctions.

— But in our country, all shipbuilding is either at USC or at Rosneft. Both are under sanctions.

- Rosneft is still under sectoral sanctions. She, for example, is prohibited from long-term borrowing with a maturity of more than 14 days. Other sanctions against Rosneft do not apply to shipbuilding, they relate to the development of gas and oil fields beyond the Arctic Circle. It is forbidden to supply equipment from the USA and the European Union there. And there are no blocking sanctions yet, which means that foreign currency accounts are working as usual.

- Did I understand you correctly: USC member enterprises cannot open foreign currency accounts anywhere at all?

— Quite right. They will be sent to any European or American bank.

- And what will happen to the money that they now have in foreign currency accounts?

— In foreign banks, all funds are blocked. They are, but the owners cannot manage them until the sanctions are over. And the owners of foreign currency accounts in the same Promsvyazbank will have to convert all the currency into rubles. Another option is to come and pick up suitcases of cash euros or dollars. They will not be able to make any other banking currency transactions. Any attempt at a foreign exchange transfer will result in the freezing of the corresponding amount by a US or European correspondent bank.

Lev Godovannik for Fontanka.ru

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4493162.html

"Annexation of Crimea".   Garbage journalist interview of a marginally informed "expert".

The usual whiny tone of all is lost, Russia does not know how to make chips and other liberast propaganda narrative points.

Complaints about Elbrus?  LOL.  Maybe about the software but not about the chip you lying sack of sh*t "expert".  

Tired of seeing this deliberate misinformation posing as journalism.

Elbrus and Baikal processors used in commercial applications were fabbed at Taiwanese TSMC. After the sanctions they will have to rely on existing chip stockpiles and I suspect these will be all kept for government (civil service) and not commercial use cases.

The Russian military never relied on chip imports in the first place but they might have issues with maintenance of fab equipment or sourcing supplies. The fab supplies not available in Russia proper can likely be sourced in China.

Elbrus and Baikal should not have continued their dependence on Taiwanese TSMC. Just consider what happened with Chinese Huawei and Phytium after US chip ban. They were naive to continue using those fabs. Chip companies in Russia like Crocus which already have some ties with Chinese semi industry will likely be the fastest ones to bounce back from sanctions.