Russia and economic war by the west #3

At SPIEF, they announced the replacement of Western servers and software with Russian counterparts, by Oleg Kapranov for Rossiyskaia Gazeta. 06.18.2023.

The last day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)-2023 was marked by a number of high-profile statements made by Maksut Shadayev, head of the Ministry of Digital Development. The official attended an IT breakfast with industry participants, where they discussed the development of the digital sphere, and the Rossiyskaya Gazeta stand, where he answered editorial questions.

On Saturday, Shadayev announced that on June 12, President Vladimir Putin signed an order obliging companies to import-substitute entire sectors that previously used foreign software by January 1, 2025. "If earlier there was a requirement only for critical information infrastructure (CII) objects, now there are mandatory requirements for different classes: operating systems, office suites, office applications, DBMS, virtualization tools. In this sense, KPI is tough. And it will definitely give additional demand" - said Shadayev.

The news became something of a sensation. There were talks about the preparation of such instructions, but in general, without specifics and deadlines. Later, the minister, in a conversation with reporters, added news. In Russia, they may begin to transfer royalties from Russian video and music platforms, applications for e-books to authors recognized by the Russian Ministry of Justice as foreign agents to a special account. "Such a decision is proposed to be taken on foreign agents who have already been brought to administrative responsibility for fakes about the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," Shadayev specified. A ban may also be introduced on the placement of advertisements by Russian advertisers with such authors.

The Ministry of Digital Development and the Ministry of Industry and Trade are discussing a ban on the parallel import of servers, smartphones from unfriendly countries, as there are analogues

But that's not all. “We are now discussing with the Ministry of Industry and Trade a ban on the parallel import of heavy computer equipment - I mean servers and storage systems - from unfriendly countries, these are HP, IBM and so on. And also a ban on the parallel import of smartphones, Samsung and LG mobile devices. Because there are Chinese counterparts, which are in no way inferior. At the same time, the ban on Apple equipment, in particular the iPhone, is not discussed," Shadayev said.

The logic is clear. Heavy hardware is assembled by our manufacturers such as Yadro. A number of others are also moving there, for example Aquarius. And they make equipment that is adequate in quality and prices, and their work and investments are frankly hampered by supplies through third parties of equipment, often from unfriendly countries.

In the same logic, the statement of the deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Vasily Shpak, which he made in an interview with RG. According to Shpak, the "point system" recently introduced in the country, which allows determining the level of production and, accordingly, deciding on the admission of equipment for public procurement, is planned to be extended to ATMs, printers and computer peripherals. He noted that with the help of this system, domestic companies get access to preferences that contribute to the accelerated development of production in Russia.

No less important topic is data leaks . “We are still talking in rough numbers, but there are about 200 million records about Russians that have been leaked to the network since the beginning of 2023. We are now conducting checks on them,” said Milos Wagner, deputy head of Roskomnadzor, on the sidelines of SPIEF. He recalled that last year 600 million records about Russians were leaked to the network, that is, the scale is getting smaller. The department supports the introduction of criminal liability for illegal data collection.

https://rg.ru/2023/06/18/podnazhat-na-knopki.html

Posted on another thread but relevant to this one too:

More widespread than I thought... this video mentions Murmansk and Kaliningrad where foreign owners hid their ownership and did not invest any money into the ports they controlled but just took money out... well it seems now that the Russian government is going to earn a lot more money from its ports now the foreign leeches have been burned off and their ports can grow and develop.

Pod complains about the state of Russian ship building... I wonder what sort of rot in in there that the Russian government can clean out too?

The damage done by the comprador Yeltsin regime was huge. The whole privatization process was corrupt and installed rotten owners
in key industries and companies. It also opened up Russia for rotten "investment" by parasite "investors". Purging this rot is not trivial
if you want to maintain economic activity and not have shock contractions like in the 1990s. Putin has been cleaning house for 24 years
and thanks to NATzO's Ukraine spasm the job is in its final stages. We are now seeing a viable purge of the parasites. There will still
be trash left but at a more normal level.

We have seen the growth and development of Russia these past two decades and that was with these worms feeding off their ports and who knows what other industries they infest.

Growth might not massively increase, but at least the funds being generated by these ports will now be going to the state pot which can then be spent on improvements and growth in Russia instead of spending sprees for snotty little bitches in America whose granddad was a Russian Oligarch who sends them 23 million a year in profits from a port they stole...

Hope they are going through all the cold war businesses that survive and generate money and make sure that money is not going offshore... fortunately western actions blocking Russian access to SWIFT means it is probably much harder for western criminals to get stolen money out of Russia in any form other than Rubles or Yuan... this seizing funds and nationalising property is backfiring on the west now isn't it.

Undoing the damage of the 1990s...

Japan shooting itself in the foot:

Another rare earth metals company...

And Uranium...



And fish:

The heroes of the new Russian economy are invisible and reserved, by Pavel Veshaev (financial expert at Opora Rossii, FinHelp CEO) for VZGLYAD. 06.28.2023.

Enterprises with revenues of 800 million rubles. up to 2 billion rubles there are almost 18 thousand per year. It is they who are now patching up the gaping wounds in the fabric of economic relations, which "dear Western partners" inflicted on us with all their foolishness.

Import substitution in Russia is a strange beast. Either it exists or it doesn't. We do not have a realistic view of ourselves and our capabilities in securing our own industrial and commodity sovereignty. Sometimes we doubt ourselves, not noticing the obvious achievements of the national economy, sometimes we boast passionately, denying the problem areas of economic development. How are things really?

The figures and forecasts of economic growth give cause for cautious optimism. In 2022, the fall in GDP was almost 1% less than the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development predicted. The federal budget deficit against the backdrop of reduced revenues from commodity exports and significant defense spending is projected at only 2-3%. Russia's external debt-to-GDP ratio is at an exceptionally healthy level of 16.6% in 2022.

Why is it worth being careful with winning reports against the background of such indicators? Yes, just for reasons - so as not to jinx it.

The heroes of the new economic reality are hard to notice and remember. They are restrained, businesslike, inexpressive. These are the owners of medium-sized businesses, enterprises with annual revenues from 1 to 10 billion rubles. Strong "billionaires", the Russian self-made class. Experience in business - from 15 to 30 years, age - from 35 to 50+, working hours per week - 24/7, clothing style - plain casual, past economic crises and upheavals - two or three at least. They don’t drink smoothies in co-working spaces, they don’t fly business jets, they don’t give yachts to mistresses, they don’t curse the government, they don’t scold the “deep people”, they don’t offend employees. They pay taxes, cooperate with state corporations, open new production facilities, and reinvest profits into development.

There are many such businessmen in Russia. Only enterprises with revenues of 800 million rubles. up to 2 billion rubles per year, there are 17,970, according to the Federal Tax Service. It is they who are now patching up the gaping wounds in the fabric of economic relations, which "dear Western partners" inflicted on us with all their foolishness. It is they who provide that maneuverable field of parallel imports and practical import substitution, which gives us all a calm, comfortable life. We still have everything: cosmetics, clothes, furniture, toys, stationery, smartphones, and household appliances. Much better in terms of price-quality ratio than in the period when popular Western brands were present.

However, the main battle is unfolding in the field of b2b deliveries, invisible and imperceptible to the average consumer, when different business entities supply each other with machines, components, and materials. Electric meters for construction sites, polymer harnesses for the wounded in combat conditions, measuring instruments for hot shops, special fasteners for mounting ventilated facades... Despite the firmly rooted myth that the entire Russian industry collapsed in the post-Soviet privatization era, much has been since then it has "grown" and stood on its feet. But the circulatory system of connections between the reanimated and newly rebuilt plants and factories was restored more slowly.

Now, when by the will of fate we are finally forced to seek internal resources, it turned out that a lot of things already exist in the country or can be easily done. But to overcome the dispersion of technologies, components, materials in different parts of our country, together with the information and marketing loneliness of separate factories, only people with an engineering streak, technical competence, organizational dexterity and business tenacity can overcome. Preferably - included in the current political and economic context. A classical engineer, technologist, production worker cannot be used to solve such non-banal tasks. Only mature entrepreneurs possess such talents, and business maturity just begins with at least a billion in annual revenue.

Why are such business knights “without fear and reproach” not yet too rapidly storming new markets?

First, the overall economic, geopolitical, and personnel situation has just stabilized. Many entrepreneurs are still taking a breath after the spring shock of 2022. It took at least a year to keep their companies afloat. We need to take a breath.

Secondly, there is a certain hierarchy of business needs. First, what is impossible to do without is corrected, then what works for the future. First, import shifting is worked out, most often - western imports are replaced by eastern ones (China, Korea, the CIS countries from Central Asia and the Caucasus). Then you can work on full-fledged import substitution, setting up your own production of the necessary goods, equipment, materials within the country. And only when the new product has taken place, paid off, settled down, it makes sense to think about its international distribution.

Thirdly, even the most experienced and fearless entrepreneurs do not remember such complex, changeable, unpredictably problematic business circumstances for a long time. The friendliest countries at any time can refuse any element of basic infrastructure - banking, transport, visas. It has become the norm to cancel agreements with Russian business, Russian owners for any reason and without explanation. Situations when a Western manufacturer refuses to send an order after receiving the full amount of the advance payment happen more and more often. Approved theft from Russian business is becoming a hallmark of the new Protestant ethic. Business is like a steeplechase.

We all need to be patient, roll up our sleeves and just work in the direction where it is possible and appropriate. Russian import substitution is still in its infancy, and the export-offensive of non-commodity goods has not even begun yet. There is no need to shake the country's self-esteem by comparing the level of industrial and commodity autonomy in unfavorable foreshortenings. There will be a day - there will be food. Another year will pass and things will get better.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2023/6/28/1218617.html

"Nous autres, civilisations, nous savons maintenant que nous sommes mortelles (...). Et nous voyons maintenant que l'abîme de l'histoire est assez grand pour tout le monde" (We, other civilizations, we know that now we are mortal (...) And we now see that the abyss of history is large enough for everybody" (Paul Valéry, The Crisis of the Spirit).

We are ready for competition with the West – Putin, 06.30.2023.

No domination lasts forever, the Russian president has said.

No types of monopoly or domination are eternal, and Russia is ready to compete with the West, President Vladimir Putin told an audience in Moscow on Thursday.

Russian companies are ready to compete, they only need help with promoting their businesses, Putin told the ‘Strong Ideas for a New Time’ forum, organized by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI).

“Our companies and teams are ready for competition and many of them have already proven this. Talking about monopoly, I meant the Western competitors, of course, which had secured a monopoly in many sectors of the Russian market,” the president explained.

According to Putin, Russian companies can establish their presence in the global market step by step, starting with the markets of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and BRICS nations.

The world has not collapsed because of the sanctions, according to the president. The restrictions imposed on Moscow by the West have opened up new areas of development for Russian companies, he added.

Russian entrepreneurs filed more than 43,000 trademark registration applications in the first five months of this year, Putin noted, praising domestic businesses.

I can see that some really interesting new things have emerged. It’s a treat to watch, and hopefully not just to watch but also to wear and use.”

Putin called for the creation of an economy that produces its own modern goods, services, and technology instead of consuming foreign, imported products.

He stressed the importance of helping domestic producers to promote their products, so that Russia will have brands that are well known both within the country and globally.

Putin blasted companies that left Russia as a result of Ukraine-related sanctions. He accused some foreign brands of “turning the exit from the Russian market into a PR campaign,” and expressed doubt that these PR strategies will be of any benefit to them.

The ‘Strong Ideas for a New Time’ forum is a two-day event taking place at the World Trade Center in Moscow. It aims to identify and support initiatives and projects that will make a meaningful contribution to strengthening Russia’s sovereignty and achieving national goals by 2030.

https://www.rt.com/business/578911-putin-russia-west-competition/

Douglas McGregor, a former adviser to former US President Donald Trump, expressed his views on Russia.


We made wrong assumptions about Russia, just like every other country in the world. Initially, we all believed that the economy of this country was backward, that due to our sanctions it would collapse to smithereens. We also thought that they did not have a real scientific and technical base, but in the end it turned out that their factories work day and night, increasing the production of ammunition, missiles and various weapons. We also counted on the fact that no one would side with Russia, and the country itself would be in international isolation. However, in practice, everything turned out exactly the opposite: it all turned against us, because it is the Europeans and I who are essentially driving ourselves into ever greater isolation.

– said the American retired military man.

Meanwhile, according to McGregor, the Russian president miscalculated when he believed that he still had friends in the West, realizing in the end that he was gravely mistaken.


https://topwar-ru.translate.goog/220720-byvshij-sovetnik-trampa-my-schitali-chto-u-rossii-net-nauchno-tehnicheskoj-bazy-a-ee-zavody-rabotajut-dnem-i-nochju.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

An analogue of ZARA Home and H&M Home will open in Russia in autumn, 07.05.2023.

Russian brand Redecoro: an analogue of ZARA Home and H&M Home will open in Russia in autumn.

The Russian analogue of Zara Home and H&M Home will open in Russia in autumn. Anastasia Kondakova, managing partner of the Redecoro brand, told about this on Wednesday, July 5.

"By the end of 2023, we will open two offline and one online store in Moscow. The first one is 370 sq. m will appear in the fall in the shopping center "Metropolis", - she told TASS.

As Kondakova clarified, up to 50 chain stores will appear in Russia and the CIS in the next couple of years.

The managing partner said that in autumn the chain will introduce the first line of home decor, textiles, tableware, kitchen and bathroom products. She noted that when creating the collection, the designers focused on the Scandinavian and ethnic style, minimalism and eco-style.

“It is important to note that we do not copy the products of departed brands, but develop our own lines. Diversification of suppliers and a large number of partners help us not to depend on the political, economic, epidemiological situation in the world,” Kondakova added.

The features of the brand will be manufacturability and digitalization. The cost of production will be at the level of the middle price segment.

The Swedish brand H&M announced the planned closure of stores and the termination of activities in the Russian Federation on July 18 last year. On December 5, the retailer's press service told Izvestia that all the company's stores had stopped working in Russia. There were 172 in total.

The Spanish company Inditex also closed retail outlets in Russia in 2022. On October 25, it became known that Inditex agreed to sell its business in the Russian Federation to the Lebanese group of companies Daher, which later created local brands specifically for Russians . So, instead of Zara , Pull & Bear , Stradivarius, Bershka, Maag, Ecru, Dub and Vilet stores began to open in the country this spring.

https://iz.ru/1539648/2023-07-05/v-rossii-oseniu-otkroetsia-analog-zara-home-i-hm-home

Export loading: Russian manufacturers are increasing the supply of products abroad, by Vera Kuzmina for Izvestia. 07.08.2023.

The countries of the CIS, Africa and Georgia will increase purchases of meat, butter and canned food from our country.

Against the backdrop of a decline in exports in some industries, domestic producers of meat, butter and canned food are increasing supplies abroad. Several companies told Izvestia that in 2023 they will increase exports to the CIS countries, Africa and Georgia. Exit to new countries is also being considered: Angola, China and Mongolia. The Ministry of Industry and Trade noted that domestic products are in demand due to their reliability and competitive pricing.

Strengthening exports

Russian manufacturers of a wide range of food products are increasing export deliveries of their goods to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, African countries and others.

The Efko company (brands Sloboda, Altero and Hi!) will increase the volume of deliveries abroad in 2023 by almost 1.5 times in physical terms , its representative said. The company's export geography covers about 50 countries on three continents, including North America, Africa and Eurasia , he added.

— The most demanded product categories are vegetable oils, meal, specialized fats, as well as consumer products . In some regions, we have achieved good results: for example, in the countries of the Caucasus, the share of our mayonnaises on the market exceeds 30% , - said the representative of the Efko company.

According to the results of 2023, the volume of export deliveries by the enterprises of the Prodo group will increase by 20% , Ivan Dragan, director of sales and logistics of the company, told Izvestiya. Prodo enterprises - Omsk Bacon and Klinsky Meat Processing Plant - already supply sausages, semi-finished products, meat delicacies to Kazakhstan, the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and the United Arab Emirates . Two other enterprises will also be exported this year, he added.

— Sibirskaya Poultry Farm plans to start export deliveries, primarily to Kazakhstan , at the end of summer. It is supposed to supply about 50 trade names: cutlets, minced meat and other semi-finished products , - said Ivan Dragan.

In the second half of 2023, Tyumen Broiler will also start shipping products abroad, he added. It is planned to supply broiler chicken by-products, sausages, sausages, meat delicacies, semi-finished products and others to Kazakhstan and Belarus.

In the future, the company's enterprises plan to expand the list of countries for export , Ivan Dragan noted. According to him, the markets of China and Mongolia are of interest .

— Cherkizovo Group delivers to more than 20 countries. An interesting direction for the company now is the markets of the African continent . We already export products to Ghana, Congo, Benin and Equatorial Guinea. There were also one-off shipments to Angola . Now we are conducting commercial negotiations on prices and terms of delivery to this country, - the press service of the Cherkizovo group reported.

According to the manufacturer, the volume of exports in 2022 exceeded 100 thousand tons. This year, these volumes will grow by about 10% more . Cherkizovo will increase deliveries to neighboring countries (the Customs Union and the CIS), the company's press service reported.

Cherkizovo supplies halal chicken and turkey meat to the Middle East countries, chicken, turkey, pork products, as well as sausages to Asian markets and the CIS countries . Chicken and turkey are also delivered to Africa and Serbia. And in China, chicken feet are very popular , they account for a significant share of exports to this country.

“China is attractive due to high prices for our products and large order volumes,” said Mikhail Burmistrov, General Director of INFOLine-Analytics.

Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Agriculture and the Russian Export Centre.

Help export

In connection with the sanctions pressure against our country in 2022, the government of the Russian Federation has accelerated and simplified the procedures for obtaining support by exporters, as well as introduced relaxations on obligations to achieve results in the provision of subsidies , Izvestia was told in the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

— Domestic products are well known abroad and are in great demand due to their reliability, competitive pricing and responsible after-sales service . This, among other things, allows us to expand the list of those countries and companies that are increasingly turning to Russian suppliers. Among them are Morocco, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and many others , the department added.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the leading export industries are enterprises of the metallurgical, chemical, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries, as well as mechanical engineering . The main importers of Russian industrial exports are China, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Belarus and others.

The development of the export direction is an opportunity to expand sales markets, diversify economic risks and, ultimately, increase the company's competitiveness , said a Prodo representative.

Until recently, the execution of all necessary documents for export deliveries was the main obstacle to entering foreign markets . However, these issues have become easier to solve for Russian business in recent years ,” he said.

According to a source in the industry, the risks for Russian exporters are related to prices - the cost of basic types of food raw materials (grain, oil) and, accordingly, the finished product is decreasing . Negative price dynamics is also observed on world markets , the expert noted. “We are interested in friendly countries. The main Russian partners were China, Turkey , the Middle East, and now the positions in these markets will be strengthened ,” he concluded.

https://iz.ru/1540880/vera-kuzmina/eksportnaia-zagruzka-proizvoditeli-rf-narashchivaiut-postavki-produktov-za-rubezh

Side benefit to Russia

It is even better than that... China is restricting who can buy its rare earth minerals, but it is banning the US and pro US countries, not Russia, and China still wants to sell REMs so Russia can buy them and sell them on the open market if they want at huge markup prices (what China and India are doing with oil and gas with Russia) and keep their own resources for when they need them.

The US has REMS but started buying from China because they were cheaper... dirty and dangerous to extract so why not let Chinese workers do the hard work and keep US resources in the ground for if they need them. (ie when they can't get them from anywhere else).

The American companies Mondelez, Mars and PepsiCo showed rapid sales growth in Russia last year.

Should mention that on pro western websites to get them to protest their products until they leave the Russian market... then Russian companies can take their place....

I personally hate Mondelez... they own Cadbury and closed down the factory here in Dunedin... the factory had been upgraded and was making a good profit but they thought they could make more money by closing it down and firing about 500 people and moving production to Australia. It was making money but they thought they could make the same amount with less costs by closing it and selling the land.

Never buy Cadbury products any more myself... even when on special.

Greedy

Hahaha... yes, when the west steals Russian assets then Russia can seize western assets including Mondelez and Mars and PepsiCo assets and hand them over to Russian owners to start production of Russian products and keep the profits in Russia.

Also western sanctions against the most rich Russians means they are investing in the Russian economy rather than building things in the west that might get stolen... so this has been really good for Putin... a British Soccer team might have been owned by a Russian but there was nothing Russian about them and the money they generated did not go to Russia either, so that was an own goal too...

The irony is that most Russian billionaires in the west hate Putin so steal everything they have... an apt punishment for taking the money you earned or stole in Russia to the west...

Putin issues warning about US banking system, 07.11.2023.

Negative trends are mounting in the American financial sector, according to the Russian president.

The increase in Russian banking sector's sovereignty and independence has been quite timely, given the negative trends that are growing globally, specifically in the US banking system, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated.

Putin was meeting with Andrey Kostin, the CEO of Russia’s second-largest bank, VTB, who assured the president that the country’s banking sector was secure.

“Regarding anti-Russia sanctions, we have probably become somewhat immune because of them, and we have enhanced our sovereignty in this field,” Kostin told the Russian leader in the Kremlin on Tuesday.

“Look at what is now happening in the United States. This is virtually the largest financial and banking crisis since 2008, and it is already spreading to Europe,” the top Russian banker noted, adding “that sanctions against Russia are a double-edged sword.”

By imposing economic restrictions against Moscow, the West has “demolished the global trade system and caused an inflation surge,” while its attempts to resolve this problem with the use of standard methods devalued bank assets, Kostin pointed out.

The Russian banking sector is feeling “quite safe,” the VTB chief executive maintained, adding that he believes there won’t be any problems, “although we incurred certain losses last year when our property was simply taken away from us.”

Putin, who has previously cited economic sovereignty as the country's top priority, agreed with Kostin, saying: “Perhaps what you have said about raising the level of independence and sovereignty is rather timely, considering greater negative trends in the US banking system.”

The Russian president had earlier stated that the country’s economy was successfully withstanding outside pressure, warning that Western sanctions would have a boomerang effect.

https://www.rt.com/business/579558-putin-us-banking-system-warning/

The American economy is worrisome, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 07.12.2023.

Economists urge not to be deceived by the US economy.

Unlike the Russian banking sector, the largest banking crisis since 2008 is gaining momentum in the United States and is already spreading to Europe, VTB CEO Andrey Kostin said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the US economy is growing, even large Western banks warn that this should not be deceived. What are the reasons for concern in the American economy?

“You look at what is happening now in the United States: in fact, the biggest financial banking crisis since 2008, and it is already spreading to Europe,” Kostin said. At the same time, he stressed that, unlike the American and European ones, the Russian banking sector feels secure and is not connected with the crisis processes in the West.

“The rise in inflation in the post-COVID period led to an increase in base interest rates in the world, which negatively affected bank balance sheets. Western banks have existed for almost 15 years in a low interest rate environment, so the current cycle of tightening monetary policy in the US and the eurozone looks like a test of strength. The sale of assets from the balance sheets of central banks also deprives credit institutions of potential investment income, worsens the conditions of the financial market as a whole,” says Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

The spread of the problem in American banks to Europe is quite logical, given the integration of the financial systems of the Old and New Worlds. “Banks tend to carry out external activities, so it is sometimes difficult to identify a particular bank as “American” or “European”. In Europe, the cycle of tightening monetary policy is still far from its end, so the banking problems in the region will only intensify,” says Evstifeev.

While the US economy is not in recession, however, many economists do not exclude it in the near future. So, Bank of America advises not to flatter yourself with the fact that the US economy is now growing. Enough to worry about to consider a moderate US recession starting in the first half of 2024 as the base case, according to the bank. One reason is the credit crunch.

The bank notes that the aggressive tightening of the Fed has led to the fact that banks have become less willing to issue loans. The growth of consumer and business loans slowed down. Morgan Stanley noted that banks have tightened lending more than ever in history. Additional rate hikes will increase stress on US banks, triggering further tightening of lending conditions. This will eventually have a negative impact on investment, employment and spending, economists at Bank of America say.

Another problem that could bring the American economy to a crisis is the delinquency in payments on loans, in particular student loans. Joe Biden refused to forgive student loans after a three-year gap in payments. In early autumn, Americans will have to resume payments on these loans, not everyone will be able to do this, hence the high risk of delinquency that Bank of America economists are waiting for. The consequences could extend to delinquent credit card debt, where more and more borrowers are already delinquent.

Finally, the third problem of the American economy is a clear slowdown in GDP growth. In the first quarter, the US economy grew by 2%. However, there will be a slowdown further, and at the end of the year, GDP will grow by only 1.3%. The labor market looks resilient, but the number of jobs is growing mainly in the service sector with low wages, which leads to a decrease in labor productivity, the bank explains.

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, who predicted the 2008 crisis, also said in April that a banking crisis in the United States could cause a recession in the country's economy.

And the well-known French economist Jacques Attali said in early July that the global financial crisis could happen literally in August. He made such a statement in a conversation with Russian pranksters Vladimir Kuznetsov (Vovan) and Alexei Stolyarov (Lexus), which they conducted on behalf of former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.

“The worst-case scenario is the collapse of Deutsche Bank, followed by a crisis in the American financial system. A real crisis that will lead to a reduction in lending and a recession in the global economy. And this will create problems with the help of Ukraine,” Attali said.

According to Attali, "the United States should not have raised the refinancing rate, since this measure led to a crisis."

Another indicator pointing to the risks of a recession is real sales in industry and trade, which turned out to be negative in January-March, says Alina Poptsova, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

“There are usually two to three quarters between the increase in the base interest rate and its impact on the economy, so negative effects may still appear by the end of this year,” Evstifeev notes.

“We do not believe that a recession in the US is out of the question: the most rapid rate hike in the last three decades with a time lag will have a dampening effect on economic activity in the coming quarters. The Bloomberg Consensus Forecast indicates that the probability of a recession in the US economy in the next 12 months is 65%, with the rate above the 60% level since September 2022. We also tend to view the likelihood of a recession as high. Our own model indicates a 56% chance of an economic downturn in the next six months, which can be considered a high value,” concludes Poptsova.

https://vz.ru/economy/2023/7/12/1220609.html

Its not gonna be a recession, its going to be stagflation.
The interst rates is not whats out of control, its the inflation.

Jesus Christ, where the hell this "recession" gonna come from??
The US is bailing out the banks on day 1, they are not gonna let another 2008 happen.

Ruble beating ‘toxic’ Western currencies in export payments – central bank, 07.12.2023.

The share of the dollar and euro in settlements has continued to drop, the Bank of Russia says.

The share of the ruble in Russia’s foreign trade operations continues to grow on a monthly basis, data from the Bank of Russia released on Monday showed.

According to the calculations, 39% of payments for Russian export deliveries in May were made in the national currency, along with 30% for imports. The share of “toxic” currencies, the US dollar and euro, has meanwhile declined in exports and imports to 33% and 35% respectively, the regulator said.

Along with the increase in the ruble’s share, the “weight” of the Chinese yuan in Russia’s foreign trade operations has also been on the rise. It reached 25% in exports in May compared to 23% in April, and remained at 31% in imports. In value terms, monthly export revenues in yuan increased from $7.4 billion to $8.4 billion, and from $8 billion to $8.1 billion in import payments.

Russia actively began to replace the dollar and euro in foreign trade last year amid Western sanctions imposed over the conflict with Ukraine. Russia has since dramatically reduced the number of bank accounts and transactions between companies and financial institutions involving Western currencies. Prior to the conflict, the share of the US dollar and euro in Russia’s settlements was around 90%.

The Russian Finance Ministry said last month it expects the share of Western currencies in Russia’s trade to drop further to 10-15% by the end of the year.

According to official figures, as of June, the share of the ruble in settlements between Russia and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) had reached 75%, while over 80% of settlements between Russia and China were made in either rubles or yuan.

https://www.rt.com/business/579525-ruble-exports-western-currencies/