Russia and economic war by the west #3

GarryB wrote:Restoring the Baltic states to the Russian Federation would be like going to the hospital and asking for the contents of the boils you had lanced a few years ago injected back into your blood stream to cause more boils and infections and damage to your body.

Forget the Baltics, the entire Russian Federation is better off without them, they were a drain on the resources and energy of the country and contributed less than was put in to them.

Besides they earned money as a rail hub and shipping location a few hundred kms closer to the destination than the shipyards and ports near St Petersberg, so they were redundant anyway... and took funding and trade traffic from Russian ports.

They want to get rid of their Russian population, so help them... make it easier for Russian speakers to get Russian citizenship...

Eventually perhaps Russia can build a wall between itself and the EU/HATO and Russia can finally protect its blood from the leeches on the other side of the wall.

Russia can contest the third place with the US through overt and covert operations to dismantle the US economy.

Russia should ignore the west and its bullshit and just look after its own interests and the interests and growth and development of its own country and also of the countries it trades and cooperates with.

The west is going to have to deal with some hard times ahead and that might include a few bank collapses and perhaps even a few race riots, and their incompetence will of course mean more dangerous virus issues for the future, but of course the west will blame China and Russia and anyone else but itself for its problems and that is just fine too... if that helps them sleep at night who cares.

The west used to be the voice of the international community... it thought... but as it becomes clear to everyone it is the voice of extremists in the US then more and more people are becoming alienated from those messages... even people in the west... but as you probably know you can't not believe the TV stations because any station that might give you a different view has been banned... the BBC claimed to give you news from every different angle, but really what they do is give you the views you are allowed to have... otherwise you are a Putin puppet.

Garry you said a similar thing about Russia ignoring the Ukraine and its Russian 50% (who have been there for many generations).
You forgot the Baltics too have a high proportion of Russians, a fair number of neutrals. AND a high number of NATO controlled Nazi/Fascist vermin. Additionally, the Baltics are strategically a pain up the arsehole for Russia, not least in terms of isolating Kaliningrad and as a launch pad vs other parts of Russia.

The bottom line is the Baltics are a problem that needs sorting one way or the other.
Maybe the Baltics shouldnt be reintroduced to Russia. But having them NATO controlled is far far worse than any other solution.

Garry you said a similar thing about Russia ignoring the Ukraine and its Russian 50% (who have been there for many generations).

I very much did, you are correct and for the price of four new regions of happy Russians, Russia has had to pay the price of perhaps 30,000 dead Russian soldiers, which is a high price and would not be acceptable if it was Syria, but as Russia didn't get a choice and the alternative was letting Kiev strike first and then have Russia react it is rather likely Kiev might have gotten in a few serious blows before the Russians could push them back so I rather doubt they would be better off than Russia is now in terms of soldiers killed.

Now that the conflict has started and is contained with just fighting Ukraine and some volunteers it makes sense for Russia to finish the job and eliminate the threat that Ukraine as a country posed to Russia.

Attacking the Baltic states adds directly to Russias problems and makes a solution harder to achieve and will likely make things more costly.

The US certainly wont likely want to send in troops but they might say they will transfer nuclear weapons to its Baltic Allies and they can "defend themselves" as and how they please to try to say... well you can't use nukes against us because we didn't use them against you...

They love that deniability BS they use when the CIA or Blackwater openly commits crimes around the world... it is amazing that is tolerated...

Saddam should have created his own group and called them the CIA and let them do anything they liked in other countries with a huge budget and they can kill anyone and destroy anything... but it is not Iraq... it is the CIA... no accountability.

You forgot the Baltics too have a high proportion of Russians, a fair number of neutrals. AND a high number of NATO controlled Nazi/Fascist vermin.

I didn't forget that at all... I am banking on that... as those regions turn to shit because there wont be more EU money to make everything look good and their stupid policies of blaming Russia and Russians for everything should be alienating those Russian citizens they have... Russia should offer them land and citizenship... they are an ex Soviet state so they should be eligible... if they want to move to Russia then great... if they want to stay and be victimised by their colonial overlords, well that is their choice. Offer apartments and pensions for those that are retired and proper healthcare etc, and jobs for the younger people.... there are a lot of job vacancies in Russia that can't be filled because there are not enough able bodied workers with the right skills... a bit of training and off they can go.

They could do Youtube videos showing the people going through the process and how it is turning out for them...

Additionally, the Baltics are strategically a pain up the arsehole for Russia, not least in terms of isolating Kaliningrad and as a launch pad vs other parts of Russia.

Kaliningrad is what it is... an island surrounded by hostile countries... they need to modify their existence to cope with that.  Modify industry and business in Kaliningrad to make them more self sufficient, so only a minimum of material and resources need to move to and from mainland Russia via boat or aircraft. I would say nationalise the pipelines NSI and NSII and convert one to deliver gas to Kaliningrad and the other to be a pumping station to send containers with goods in them or oil or something else that they can put on ships to send to the world or use domestically and pump to neighbours who behave or pay a high enough price for....

The bottom line is the Baltics are a problem that needs sorting one way or the other.

I disagree... they have made their bed... let them enjoy the lumps and wet patches... when the US collapses or starts looking inwards at its own problems rather than out trying to control the world the Europeans are going to realise the rest of the world does not really like them very much... and only because they are colonial thieving bastards... when the rest of the world joins BRICS and starts trading amongst themselves without the west as the middle man the west is going to be sidelined.

I also watched a recent interesting science report about sea currents and they think as early as 2025 that the warm water current that make Europes climate so much warmer than it should be is going to change and things are going to become rather more difficult... presumably meaning Asia and Alaska might get a bit warmer too... all these things are going to have an impact.

They started the ball rolling by cutting ties with Russia and Russia is not only surviving... it is developing and blooming... and Europe is starting to realise how important Russian cheap resources were to its well being and income... and now an African country has decided not to subsidise France any more I rather suspect other countries are going to follow suit and looking to other countries for partnerships and cooperation and development and growth.... when trade between the EU and Russia stops the countries that made money by being in the middle are going to become empty and useless... Europe is not going to use Baltic ports for anything and if Russia does not use them then no one will... the great trade route through Russia from Asia to Europe and back wont go to Europe any more... it could be going down through the Caspian and Iran to India and Africa, or maybe through Turkey and Syria to Africa, but I am pretty sure Russia wont be helping it get to Europe nor for European goods to get to China... because Europe is likely to collapse too and wont be making anything... all their companies will move to the US or China or India so they will have to pay Russia to get their goods delivered to Europe...

Ukraine has resources that pro Russian people live around and on, so accepting them in to the Russian Federation makes sense... it is worth pumping money in there to fix things and remove unexploded ordinance and rehabilitate people, because they are essentially Russians.

The Baltics on the other hand are rail lines and ports and a large portion of nazis who hate Russia and Russians.

The rail lines will be the wrong gauge and the ports are run down and redundant because Russian ports can essentially do the same work without needing to convert to foreign currency  for Russophobes.

Maybe the Baltics shouldnt be reintroduced to Russia. But having them NATO controlled is far far worse than any other solution.

I would say the opposite... it is hilarious... because the baltics essentially stick into Russian territory with Kaliningrad behind and Russia in front and a difficult gap between them... you can't fill the Baltics with huge powerful forces because they can be cut off and slaughtered and when you don't put massive forces in there the locals think you wont be able to defend them from a massive attack... which is essentially true.

I would put the Baltics in the same basket as Poland and Finland and most other HATO states... don't worry about the civilians... just nuke the US bases first, local military bases second and then capital and large population centres next... ie no intention of occupation or invasion... they are threats... you don't capture or occupy a threat, you eliminate it.

(To be clear I am not suggesting these places are attacked by Russia, I am just pointing out that these are threats rather than places with lots of Russians that need to be rescued like parts of the Ukraine. If HATO starts something or there is an attack or invasion like HATO troops start moving towards Kaliningrad or Ukrainian territory without Russian agreement then Russia needs to respond to the Threat, and as I say above you respond differently to threats than you do to hostage situations...)

(Obviously you check to see where Alamo and other members are and you bomb around them)...

Losses of European companies in the Russian market were estimated at 100 billion euros, by Olga Nikitina for VZGLYAD. 08.07.2023.

FT: European companies have lost at least 100 billion euros in the Russian market since the start of the NWO.
Direct losses of European companies in the Russian market since the start of the special operation have amounted to at least 100 billion euros, British media write after analyzing the statements of the largest companies in the Old World over the past year and a half.

The Financial Times article says that 176 European companies during this period experienced "asset impairment", incurring costs related to the exchange rate, as well as one-time expenses for the sale and reorganization of the Russian segment of their business. At the same time, the analysis does not take into account indirect macroeconomic factors, for example, the increased cost of energy resources and other products against the backdrop of Western sanctions, TASS reports.

At the same time, FT experts, recalling the decisions of the Russian leadership on the Danone and Baltika companies, suggested that European business "was in for even more pain ahead."

Meanwhile, according to the Kyiv School of Economics, half of the 1,900 firms owned by European enterprises continue to operate in Russia.

According to the FT's calculations, oil and gas companies suffered the most losses after leaving the Russian market. Thus, the publication estimates the total losses of BP, Shell and TotalEnergies at 40.6 billion euros. At the same time, it is noted that as a result of the global increase in prices for energy resources, these companies did not experience financial difficulties, having received a total profit of 95 billion euros at the end of last year.

The losses of companies engaged in industry, including in the automotive industry, in Russia were estimated at 13.6 billion euros. Financial corporations and banks recorded €17.5 billion in write-offs and other expenses.

Earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Western companies do not want to leave the Russian market, they know that the Russian economy will remain part of the global economy.

https://vz.ru/news/2023/8/7/1224625.html

Stealing down payments leads to the loss of assets and property in Russia for a German company...

It is their idea of business and it seems countries around the world are getting sick of it... including, but not only in Africa.

Are they going to grow up and learn the lesson or are they going to double down and try to punish those that call out their theft and double standards... so far their track records regarding sanctions has been that they apply sanctions and then appear genuinely shocked that the sanctioned party responds with sanctions of their own in return. Eventually when sanctions don't work they draw the conclusion that they need more sanctions.

They think they are judge jury and executioner and when they impose sanctions it is right and just and the fair thing to do to get the victim into line... but when the victim responds with sanctions of their own then that is not fair and WTO and other international organisations have to get involved then...

It is like a parent trying to punish their child who is now a grown up... don't think they wont hit you back... especially when you are in the wrong.

How long before the west realises it is wrong... it might take economic collapse and economic and political isolation before they realise... or they may never realise.

They are dragging their feet moving back to Russia, so they will be paying tax in both countries...

Russia regained its stock market, by Dmitry Skvortsov for VZGLYAD. 08.09.2023.

Private investors have become important players in domestic financial markets.

The Russian stock market is setting records, and we are talking not only about company quotes. The number of private investors on the Moscow Exchange has exceeded the three million threshold for the first time since February 2022. There are a number of other signs that the Russian economy has successfully adjusted to living in isolation from the financial markets of the collective West.

The sanctions imposed against Russia after the start of the events in Ukraine were directed primarily against the financial sector of the economy. According to the plan of their initiators, having destabilized the financial sector, the sanctions were supposed to bring the entire Russian economy to the brink of destruction.

But Russia is not America. And the Russian real sector turned out to be not so dependent on the banking system and the financial market. The banking sector was able to stabilize and prevent a mass collapse of banks. Although, in general, the Russian financial markets needed more time to adapt than the enterprises of the real sector.

How it was before SVO

Prior to the start of the CBO, large Russian companies borrowed money on international markets (whether it was a bank loan or the placement of corporate bonds). And private Russian investors were happy to invest in foreign securities.

The global financial market, fueled by dollar issuance, grew and provided rich opportunities for private investment. And for corporate issuers, access to the global market meant the possibility of raising borrowed funds at a lower rate.

The Russian financial market in these conditions relied primarily on the funds of foreign investors. The shares of Russian companies were traded mainly by foreigners, who could simultaneously operate with much larger amounts of money than domestic investors. In fact, the Russian stock market did not belong to Russia.

American shenanigans

Under these conditions, a quick and peaceful "divorce" seemed impossible. And the sanctions against the Russians led to the blocking of Russian investors' funds in foreign infrastructure in the amount of 5.7 trillion rubles ($81.5 billion). In addition, the assets of large Russian companies were seized abroad for a much larger amount.

In American logic, all this should have led to the collapse of both the financial and real sectors of the Russian economy. It should have, but it didn't.

State orders and public investment have pushed production growth. In 2022, this growth largely offset the damage done to the Russian economy by Western sanctions and the disruption of traditional supply chains.

Recently, the World Bank published its calculations of the GDP of countries at purchasing power parity for 2022. And it turned out that Russia, under sanctions, rose from sixth to fifth place in the ranking, overtaking Germany and not much behind Japan. If we compare the World Bank data on Russia for 2021 and 2022, it turns out that Russia's GDP under sanctions increased from $4.785 trillion to $5.327 trillion. Which means an increase of 11.3% per year.

These are somewhat strange figures, given that Rosstat published its data in April this year, which recorded a decline in the Russian economy in 2022. According to Rosstat, Russian GDP in 2022 amounted to 153.4 trillion rubles and decreased by 2.1% compared to 2021.

A reasonable explanation for this discrepancy is the impact of unreported inflation in the US. And this is not only about the possibility of direct manipulation of data in the interests of the government.

In the American economy, a large share is occupied by financial services and high-tech manufacturing. And there is one important point here. Progress, for example, in processors makes comparing inflation in their production a non-trivial task. If the new generation of processors (for simplicity) is twice as productive, and the cost of the computer in dollars remains the same, in terms of inflation, there is a price reduction of 50%. And this is without taking into account the fact that the processors of the previous generation, as they are already obsolete, are sold at a discount, further increasing the effect of the supposedly “price reduction”.

It is difficult to accurately account for the influence of such factors. It is necessary to delve into the intricacies of pricing in many industries that use processors and other rapidly advancing components. But this effect reduces overall inflation, offsetting price increases in other sectors of the US economy.

And this growth is evident. Thus, the peak of gasoline prices in the United States was reached in July 2022, and by the end of 2022 prices returned to those of January 2021, but the annual weighted average prices for motor fuel were 35% higher in 2022 than in 2021 . The final value of inflation in the United States for 2022 was 6.5%, although there is a strong suspicion that in reality - without the above statistical tricks - it would be much higher.

Records of private owners

One way or another, the Russian economy feels more confident than the economies of many countries of the collective West. And this is already beginning to influence the behavior of Russian investors.

According to the Moscow Exchange, the activity of private investors in July for the first time since February 2022 exceeded the three millionth threshold. In July 2023, transactions on the Moscow Exchange were made by 3.06 million people. At the same time, on July 31, transactions were concluded by 1.34 million private investors during the day, while the average daily activity of private investors in 2022 was 625 thousand people.

The total number of individuals with brokerage accounts on the Moscow Exchange reached 26.39 million (+433 thousand people in July). And the number of brokerage accounts they own reached 44.9 million (+910 thousand accounts in July).

Of course, the increase in the number of individual investors on the Moscow Exchange is dictated by various factors. These are the difficulties of investing in foreign markets under sanctions. And no one gives guarantees that the sanctions will not be tightened.

In addition, Western financial markets are not doing well. The major U.S. stock market indices (DowJones, NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite, and S&P500) have yet to reach their November 2021 highs.

But now the Russian stock market is developing based on its own internal logic. It no longer depends on changes in quotas for certain emerging markets for large funds, which in the past caused capital outflows and inflows that strongly affect the fall or rise in quotes.

Now the Russian stock market depends solely on the policy of the Russian financial authorities and the performance of the Russian companies themselves. And besides, the mood of ordinary investors is beginning to have a greater influence on the situation on the stock exchange. In July, the share of individuals in the volume of trades in shares was 78.9%, in the volume of trades in bonds - 35.4%, on the spot currency market - 17.7%, on the derivatives market - 68.2%. Thus, the Russians actually returned the domestic stock market to Russia.

So far, the money of Russian investors cannot yet become a driver of economic growth. Large companies have to focus on public investment and bank lending. The volume of investments of private investors in the bond market in July amounted to only 76.9 billion rubles, in the stock market - 9.2 billion rubles. This is not much in relation to the needs of enterprises. But this is organic growth for the stock market itself and an opportunity for Russian investors to multiply their funds within and for the benefit of their own country.

https://vz.ru/economy/2023/8/9/1224667.html

It will be interesting to look at the comments Nabiulina makes about further interest rate hikes, if ruble weakness persists. Otoh, it looks like oil might be headed for $90+ or even $100.

Yeah, there is plenty of rot in Russia. These companies need to be threatened with extreme legal sanctions if they don't comply. They can take a loss if
it is so hard for them to leave offshore racket havens.

You might enjoy this:

Who will replace Microsoft in Russia, by Andrey Rezchikov for VZGLYAD. 08.10.2023.

How Microsoft's departure from Russia will affect domestic users.

Microsoft will stop renewing licenses for Russian companies from September 30th. The reason given was the inability to receive payments to a local bank account. This became known immediately after the Foreign Ministry announced the anti-Russian activities of Microsoft. Why did the American company take such a step and what consequences will it lead to for Russian users?

The American corporation Microsoft  has announced that after September 30 it will not renew the licenses of Russian companies. This follows from the Microsoft Online Services technical support letter. According to the Windows and Office developer, the company can no longer accept payments to a local bank account as a payment method for Microsoft services in Russia.

Information about this appeared after the statements of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, who  said that Microsoft has tarnished its reputation with anti-Russian rhetoric and concrete steps to the detriment of the Russian Federation. According to him, since the beginning of the special operation, Microsoft has been providing various support to Ukraine under the pretext of strengthening its cyber defence.

This spring, the media  reported  on Microsoft's attempts to maintain a presence in the Russian market and continue cooperation with companies that did not fall under US sanctions. That is why the corporation did not close the Russian legal entity and tried to find opportunities to continue supporting the software and updating it.

In April, Microsoft agreed to pay nearly three million dollars to settle a dispute over violations of U.S. sanctions on Cuba, Iran, Syria and Russia. Since February of this year, Microsoft has also stopped selling licensed copies of the Windows operating system (OS) on the official website. But the OS is available from third-party retailers and on physical media.

“American software developers are actively helping the Armed Forces. Cisco provided its services and equipment. Elon Musk donated Starlink satellite communication terminals to Ukraine. Microsoft has thousands of programs that our adversary can use for free,”  said  German Klimenko, former adviser to the President of Russia on Internet development programs, founder of Liveinternet and MediaMetrics.

“At the moment, Microsoft is not directly acting against Russia, but such risks exist. For example, our users' data may be passed on to third parties. Also, the corporation is able to restrict access to its servers,” the interlocutor emphasized.

Klymenko considers the most effective response to be the replacement of Microsoft services with domestic developments. “This is a difficult task, but it is being gradually completed. Today, several Russian operating systems based on Linux are being developed, and their own version of the office suite is also being created,” the expert said.

Urvan Parfentiev, coordinator of the Safe Internet Center, agrees with this position. According to him, in some cases, Russian programs have an interface as close as possible to Microsoft software, so operators and users can master domestic developments without additional training.

The process of switching to Russian software itself, as the expert recalled, has been going on since the 2010s and “especially accelerated with the start of a special military operation, when the use of many Western software products, including mail services, became highly risky for Russian citizens.”

“In general, Microsoft's decision does not break out of the trend of gradual withdrawal of foreign companies from the Russian market. Microsoft is the brightest member of the proprietary software family - they sell their products for money. Therefore, here the company demonstrates the logic “run out of money - run out of product,” notes Parfentiev. However, Parfentiev admits that the company has become a victim of the sanctions policy of certain political circles in the United States and the European Union that has no economic logic.

“Obviously, earlier Microsoft tried by some means to unofficially stay on the Russian market, had some opportunity to make payments. But due to the rising hysteria in the US, Microsoft's ability to cooperate with Russia seems to have become risky,” the source explained.

Against this background, Russia is actively replacing a number of software products.

“A lot of work has been done in state-owned companies, organizations and institutions to switch to Russian analogues of software. There are no other options, because we have not made a decision to use foreign software products without a license,” explained Anna Dupan, Director of the Institute for Legal Regulation Problems at the Higher School of Economics.

At the same time, for ordinary users, for example, Windows, “there will be no particular problem,” because it is paid for once upon purchase. However, from September 30, the OS may begin to report periodically about the inability to download updates, Parfentiev admits. “From a security point of view, there may be questions about how Defender works on Windows. And here it is advisable to rely on anti-virus programs of Russian origin,” he adds.

On the other hand, Microsoft's decision could negatively impact some private companies, Dupan warns. Among the Russian business, there is still a demand for Microsoft products, which are supplied in boxed versions through parallel imports.

“I think Microsoft products will be used as long as possible. Ordinary users, small businesses that need to purchase a license will be forced to come up with workarounds and, most likely, spend more money,” she predicts.

https://vz.ru/society/2023/8/10/1225179.html

The chutzpah monkeys in the US and the rest of NATzO are going to have to learn the hard way that Russian generosity was never
evidence of weakness.

They now know there is no good will created by being nice, in fact to coin a phrase... give an inch and they will take a mile.

But now Russia realises that foreign investment wasn't a good thing... foreign investment is rich foreigners spending money to develop things in your country but they don't do it to be nice or for charity or to help Russia out, they do it so they can extract incoming from your economy and that will be designed to be ongoing so they are going to get rather a lot more money out than they ever put in.

Equally the example of Microsoft is very good because it means alternatives need to be found which creates competition for Microsoft and Apple and Amazon and other big powerful American companies.... them screwing Russia means Russia is forced to create an alternative that is not run by greedy monsters only interested in profit and nothing else. The rest of the world would like alternatives too...

To be fair the discounts on raw materials to a good reliable customer that treats you with respect and doesn't screw you around like the EU did is OK, it helps to keep the market and a cheaper product is more attractive inside the customer country so lower prices means more volume and Russia could certainly meet any volume needed.

But the discounts only led to contempt and didn't change the underlying basic hatred that the European leadership have for Russia, so cutting them off completely is in Russian interests.

The discounts to India and China were always temporary so they could create and organise infrastructure and trade routes for the product and still make a good profit selling on to European customers.

Well now the trade lines are set up and the product is getting to these new customers in large volumes so the discount comes off and those Indian and Chinese partners can start passing on the real costs of the product to their customers in the west and the rest of the world.

BTW I did read an article about US LNG ships that were going to Europe but the price was $300 per thousand cubic metre, but the price for the same product was $390 in Asia, so some ships changed course and sailed for Asia while a few just dropped anchor and waited for the price to go up.

This time of the year under long term contracts it would be 160 to 180 dollars per thousand cubic metre for the summer time...

Saw a video about Nord Stream and the Germans are talking about what it will take to repair the pipes and how long before they can be operating again... estimates are 6 months to a year once it is agreed on what sort of gas prices it will be. They said themselves it is unlikely to happen before the conflict in the Ukraine ends, but Russian sources said the price for gas to hostile countries is unlikely to go back to what it was.

Pretty clear from the article above it was foreign owners who thought doing business with western customers would be easier with large discounts... well now they are being eliminated from the equation perhaps Russia can make more money from unfriendly countries so they can give more discounts to countries who would benefit from a discount and not stab Russia in the back over it all.

Selling gas cheap to a third world country will promote the installation of extensive infrastructure so it can be widely used. Selling cheap gas to China will help them expand their gas use so dirtier sources of energy like coal can be reduced or even eliminated.

Of course some sort of very high temperature furnace could be developed that extracts the carbon from the emissions so it can be used as a clean fuel and a source of solid carbon for carbon fibre and also carbon nanotube uses.

We bet on when Russia will overtake Japan in PPP GDP?