Russia and economic war by the west #2

kvs wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

kvs wrote:Who is Elvira Sakhipzadovna?  The head of the CBR is Elvira Nabiullina.

Otchestvo.  Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin...

It is patronizing to use "otechestvo" instead of the last name.   So my point stands.

Patronizing?

It's literally the Russian formal means of address

The equivalent of Mr., Mrs.

So instead of Mrs. Naibullina in Russian she would be refereed to as Elvira Sakhipzadovna

Sujoy wrote:With easy visas, Biden seeks to lure Russia’s top scientists to US.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-seeks-to-rob-putin-of-his-top-scientists-with-visa-lure

Would have checked out the article



But hah, what a shame

They ought to do something about their cancellation and censorship of Russia's population, else how are its scientists supposed to know that they're invited?

GunshipDemocracy wrote:One thing that is unclear to me why CBR is not printing more Rubles as Ruble gets too strong? anyone - with monetary background can explain?

Decreasing the rate until now made more sense. If I was the Russian Central Bank I would also print a bit more money and buy more precious metals. I think they are still undervalued.

The reason the RCB chose to release capital controls instead of printing more money is because of their mindset really. They really want to have a fully convertible currency it seems. Otherwise why stop the requirement for exporters to sell their foreign currency and remove limits on bank transfers? The Chinese have really severe limits on bank transfers abroad precisely to prevent capital outflows and keep capital inside China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/biden-seeks-to-rob-putin-of-his-top-scientists-with-visa-lure

This is old news really. The Russian government can counter it by granting those peoples exemptions from conscription, preferred house loans, and starting new research labs if they want to.

Biden Seeks to Rob Putin of His Top Scientists With Visa Lure

Proposal would waive certain visa requirements for Russians U.S. enticing experts in semiconductors, cybersecurity, space

April 29

The Biden administration has a plan to rob Vladimir Putin of some of his best innovators by waiving some visa requirements for highly educated Russians who want to come to the U.S., according to people familiar with the strategy.

One proposal, which the White House included in its latest supplemental request to Congress, is to drop the rule that Russian professionals applying for an employment-based visa must have a current employer.

It would apply to Russian citizens who have earned master’s or doctoral degrees in science, technology, engineering or mathematics in the U.S. or abroad, the proposal states.

A spokesman for the National Security Council confirmed that the effort is meant to weaken Putin’s high-tech resources in the near term and undercut Russia’s innovation base over the long run -- as well as benefit the U.S. economy and national security.

Specifically, the Biden administration wants to make it easier for top-tier Russians with experience with semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing, advanced computing, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, missile propulsion technologies and other specialized scientific areas to move to the U.S.

Biden administration officials have said they’ve seen significant numbers of high-skilled technology workers flee Russia because of limited financial opportunities from the sanctions the U.S. and allies have imposed after Putin’s invasion on Ukraine.

The provision would expire in four years. There would be no changes to the vetting process, fees or other rules in the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Russian professionals began leaving the country after the invasion began on Feb. 24.

Konstantin Sonin a economist at the University of Chicago tweeted on March 7 “that more than 200,000 people fled Russia during the last 10 days. The tragic exodus not seen for a century.”

An Interfax report, citing an estimate from the Russian Association for Electronic Communications, said that between 70,000 and 100,000 information technology specialists might try to emigrate in April.

The U.S. and some of its Group of Seven allies have also in recent weeks discussed giving protected status to Russian scientists, including those working at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research.

CERN, which runs the largest particle physics laboratory, suspended most of its work with Russia after the war began.

its all Putin's fault !

"However, his speech came hours after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a grim report showing that consumer prices soared 8.6% in May from 12 months earlier, the highest rate of inflation since 1981. Food and gasoline prices rose by significantly more than 8.6%, with gas increasing by nearly 50% since last year, and reaching record highs in June.

Biden attempted to blame Putin for these costs in particular.

“Today’s inflation report confirms what Americans already know. Putin’s price hike is hitting America hard,” he declared. Insisting that the US job market is “the strongest it’s been since World War II,” Biden repeated “we’ve never seen anything like Putin’s tax on food and gas."

translation:
we have mid-term elections in November 2022
so the war has to go on in Ukraine until at least then ...

... so the EU is in for 1x very long and cold winter ....
being a subservient colony has its downsides

lancelot wrote:At this point the rate is already below inflation. I do not think there is much slack to cut it down further.

The government just needs to come up with a program to increase funding for import substitution.
Measures like the tax exemption for IT corporations they announced are a step in the right direction.

Tjat's I guess in making. Large transport infrastructure projects - steel, concrete work + increased productivity. South corridor afaik is to be restarted. Same with It (for info sec is already in place ) and civil aviation. I just wonder how machine building but looks like soon we'll learn

Gazputin wrote:its all Putin's fault !

but I would expect no less!

I remember an old Russian cartoon.  In the living room comes papa and sees a big pile of fresh shit. His son points to a dog, the dog to a cat, the cat to a parrot and the parrot - that's Putin      

"However, his speech came hours after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a grim report showing that consumer prices soared 8.6% in May from 12 months earlier, the highest rate of inflation since 1981. Food and gasoline prices rose by significantly more than 8.6%, with gas increasing by nearly 50% since last year, and reaching record highs in June.

Biden attempted to blame Putin for these costs in particular.

“Today’s inflation report confirms what Americans already know. Putin’s price hike is hitting America hard,” he declared. Insisting that the US job market is “the strongest it’s been since World War II,” Biden repeated “we’ve never seen anything like Putin’s tax on food and gas."

That's amazing that country with apparently 3% of worlds GDP and non existent economy (collapse after Soviet Union then collapse of collapsed during Obama and the again the last very collapse of collapse) can put tax on the USA

GunshipDemocracy wrote:That's amazing that country with apparently 3% of worlds GDP and non existent economy (collapse after Soviet Union then collapse of collapsed during Obama and the again the last very collapse of collapse) can put tax on the USA

Biden assumes that most of the U.S population are blithering idiots and unfortunately, he's correct. The parrots will chant "Putin price hike" and continue to pay $5-10 a gallon for fuel.

lancelot wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/biden-seeks-to-rob-putin-of-his-top-scientists-with-visa-lure

This is old news really. The Russian government can counter it by granting those peoples exemptions from conscription, preferred house loans, and starting new research labs if they want to.

Biden Seeks to Rob Putin of His Top Scientists With Visa Lure

Proposal would waive certain visa requirements for Russians U.S. enticing experts in semiconductors, cybersecurity, space

April 29

The Biden administration has a plan to rob Vladimir Putin of some of his best innovators by waiving some visa requirements for highly educated Russians who want to come to the U.S., according to people familiar with the strategy.

One proposal, which the White House included in its latest supplemental request to Congress, is to drop the rule that Russian professionals applying for an employment-based visa must have a current employer.

It would apply to Russian citizens who have earned master’s or doctoral degrees in science, technology, engineering or mathematics in the U.S. or abroad, the proposal states.

A spokesman for the National Security Council confirmed that the effort is meant to weaken Putin’s high-tech resources in the near term and undercut Russia’s innovation base over the long run -- as well as benefit the U.S. economy and national security.

Specifically, the Biden administration wants to make it easier for top-tier Russians with experience with semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing, advanced computing, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, missile propulsion technologies and other specialized scientific areas to move to the U.S.

Biden administration officials have said they’ve seen significant numbers of high-skilled technology workers flee Russia because of limited financial opportunities from the sanctions the U.S. and allies have imposed after Putin’s invasion on Ukraine.

The provision would expire in four years. There would be no changes to the vetting process, fees or other rules in the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Russian professionals began leaving the country after the invasion began on Feb. 24.

Konstantin Sonin a economist at the University of Chicago tweeted on March 7 “that more than 200,000 people fled Russia during the last 10 days. The tragic exodus not seen for a century.”

An Interfax report, citing an estimate from the Russian Association for Electronic Communications, said that between 70,000 and 100,000 information technology specialists might try to emigrate in April.

The U.S. and some of its Group of Seven allies have also in recent weeks discussed giving protected status to Russian scientists, including those working at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research.

CERN, which runs the largest particle physics laboratory, suspended most of its work with Russia after the war began.

The US has never understood with all its propaganda about the brain-drain of Russia, predicting that by the 2010s-2020s Russia would have no scientists left - that all those Russian scientists are the product of the Soviet and now Russian education system, and that's where Russia's strength lies. While some emigrate, the country is continuously producing more

And 50% of Russian parents at least according to one survey, want their kids to study STEM fields in university. It's a huge tradition. Add to that the high representation of women in these fields in Russia as well.

To counteract any Western efforts, Russia must not only entice more of its own graduates to stay, but also do two things:
1). Increase the amount of foreign students studying in Russia
2). Entice more foreign students to work in Russia after graduation too

Over the last years a lot of progress has been made on 1), to the point where Russia is the 5th or 6th largest destination for foreign students in the world at the moment, but has been growing faster than its competition at least until the COVID period when everyone's rate of increase dropped drastically. A lot of new university campuses are being built, modern facilities, smaller institutes sometimes merged into larger ones, and progress has been made in increasing Russian university ratings.
Now with the cancellation of Russia by the West, the rating efforts will likely be for nought, and the withdrawal from the Bologna process will likely create some difficulties. If Russian university diplomas are no longer accredited, this will decrease the attraction for foreign students, even those from 3rd world countries, some of which use Russia as a stepping stone to get a cheaper education before then working in Europe or America.

Basically all this has to be worked on with other BRICS members. Likely the bulk of foreign students will still continue to come, because Russia since the USSR days has always primarily worked directly with other national governments to receive students, and invited those students who come to Russia to gain an education or specialty demanded back home, which leads me on to 2).
Russia has started to focus some attention on 2). in recent years, by making it easier for foreign students to legalize working in Russia after graduation via temporary residency, and introducing a scheme whereby those students who attain Red diplomas (highest honors), are eligible for permanent residency if they apply for it. But generally speaking a lot more work has to be done in this field. As mentioned, Russia tends to attract those students who are encouraged to study in Russia by their governments, sometimes with their tuition paid for - and then return home after graduation. This has been changing over the last decade towards more private students, but many of them preferred to work in the West after graduation - an avenue which might now close for graduates from Russian institutes.
The main success in regards to 2) has been for students from the former USSR. They continue to stay in Russia in large numbers after graduation, and to be fair - continue to form the majority of Russia's foreign students as well. However Russia needs to focus on retaining talent from countries further abroad too, whose proportion in Russia's foreign student pool has been increasing.

The Inflation Crisis Is Worse Than Admitted – Will Interest Rates Go To Record Highs?, by Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge, 11.06.2022.

Inflation is not a new problem in the US; there has been a steady expansion of price inflation and a devaluation of the dollar ever since the Federal Reserve was officially made operational in 1916. This inflation is easily observed by comparing the prices of commodities and necessities from a few decades ago to today.

The median cost of a home in 1960 was around $11,900, which is the equivalent of $98,000 today. In the year 2000, the median home price rose to $170,000. Today, the average sale price for a home is over $400,000 dollars. Inflation apologists will argue that wages are keeping up with prices; this is simply not true and has not been true for a long time.

In today's terms, a certain measure of home price increases involve artificial demand created by massive conglomerates like Blackstone buying up distressed properties. We can also place some blame on the huge migration of Americans out of blue states like New York and California during the pandemic lockdowns. However, prices were rising exponentially in many markets well before covid.

Americans have been dealing with higher prices and stagnant wages for some time now. This is often hidden or obscured by creative government accounting and the way inflation is communicated to the public through CPI numbers. This is especially true after the inflationary crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s under the Carter Administration and Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.

It's important to understand that CPI today is NOT an accurate reflection of true inflation overall, and this is because the methods used by the Fed and other institutions to calculate inflation changed after the 1970s event. Not surprisingly, CPI was adjusted to show a diminished inflation threat. If you can't hide the price increases, you can at least lie about the gravity of those increases.

Today, the official CPI print from the Fed came in much hotter than expected at 8.6%. For market investors hoping for a lower print and more Fed stimulus, the dream is dead, or it should be treated as such. There is very little chance that the central bankers will reverse course in the midst of the largest inflationary crisis since the 1970s. What they aren't telling you, though, is that REAL inflation is much worse that what the CPI shows us.

By the 1990s the Fed and the government had effectively upended the traditional calculation methods for inflation and, ever since, the CPI has been subdued. If we look at numbers from Shadowstats, which uses the same calculation methods that were used in the 1980s, we can see that CPI is actually closer to 17%. This makes much more sense given the dramatic increases in food and energy prices, as well as home and rent costs just in the past two years. The 1970's crisis peaked at around 14.5%.

It's also important to note that the crisis of the 1970s was the product of a decade long decline in the US economy. The real trigger event happened in 1971 when Richard Nixon fully removed the US dollar from the gold standard. It was not long after in 1973 that CPI rose to around 8%. By 1980 inflation was officially at 14%. Volcker and the Fed responded by dramatically increasing interest rates to a record high of 15.8% by 1981.

Recession hit hard and unemployment grew to 10%. High inflation followed by high interest rates also made manufacturing in the US difficult and likely helped to precipitate the exodus of factories from America to Asia.

The difference between the 1970's crisis and today's crisis is that we are facing far worse conditions. Our crisis started around 2008 after the credit bubble collapse, which facilitated an endless stream of bailouts and stimulus packages. The Federal Reserve has printed or created tens of trillions of dollars over the course of the past 14 years.

The official US national debt has tripled in that time. In 2020 alone, the Fed created over $6 trillion from thin air and injected it directly into the economy through covid relief checks and PPP loans. Unemployment is low, for now, but this is a fleeting condition created by covid stimulus. Joblessness will likely skyrocket over the next year now that covid checks are spent and the average consumer has maxed out their credit cards.

If the Fed takes the same actions as they did in the 1970s, then it is likely that interest rates will be aggressively hiked within the next couple of years to levels even beyond those seen in 1981. The current planned pace of rate increases by the Fed will do nothing to stall rising inflation, and they know this is a fact though they will not admit it to the public until it's too late. Inflation will continue to climb well beyond current CPI. They will have to hike to the point of extreme economic pain, and this may still not stop rising prices.

Obviously, interest rates anywhere beyond 2%-3% will lead to a stock market crash, because stocks are highly dependent on corporate buybacks fueled by cheap loans. The central bank has yet to even begin true rate hikes and already we are seeing stocks decline in response to the mere prospect that the easy money train is over.

Recession is a commonly used word in the media for what we are facing, but this is a softball term that misrepresents reality. It's more accurate to say that the party is over – The deflationary crisis we should have dealt with in 2008 will return with a vengeance, but this time we have the added inflationary pressures caused by years of fiat money printing. In other words, it's a stagflationary disaster that needs to be taken far more seriously in the mainstream than it currently is.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-crisis-worse-admitted-will-interest-rates-go-record-highs

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-crisis-worse-admitted-will-interest-rates-go-record-highs

Talking about inflation in the 1970s and early 80s without a single reference to the oil price surge after the OPEC
embargo and the Iranian revolution takes the cake for ideologically driven BS. Going off the gold standard would
only matter if the Fed started to crank the printing presses. But that is not what happened in the early 1970s.
The inflation was due to oil prices going up by a large factor. The inflation period ended in the 1980s when the oil
price crashed. It was the North Sea oil plays that rescued the UK from its stagflationary toilet. The Saudis started to dump
oil on the market in 1985 to destroy the USSR.



The 2008 global recession was closely linked to the surge in oil prices. The article is correct about the fixing of the CPI
to hide the inflation. Inflation was high in 2008 even if officially it wasn't. The situation today is so bad that even the
fixed CPI can't hide. Note that the current oil price is not reflecting the supply issues. Turdope banned Russian oil and
processed fuel imports so Kanada is enjoying the high diesel and gasoline prices. The US is slightly better but it sabotaged
Russian fuel and oil supplies with the attack on insurance and actual bans on imports. The EU-tards are part of this
idiot parade.

No. The US dollar was rapidly collapsing in value and that was why Nixon had the US go off the gold standard. Just think about it if the USD was worth more than gold why did the other countries want the gold. The US had gone into massive debt in the 1960s. Vietnam War, Space Race, nuclear buildup, Great Society programs, etc. Then in December 1971 OPEC announced they would be pricing oil in gold instead of dollars.

lancelot wrote:No. The US dollar was rapidly collapsing in value and that was why Nixon had the US go off the gold standard. Just think about it if the USD was worth more than gold why did the other countries want the gold. The US had gone into massive debt in the 1960s. Vietnam War, Space Race, nuclear buildup, Great Society programs, etc. Then in December 1971 OPEC announced they would be pricing oil in gold instead of dollars.

There was no equivalent of QE in the 1970s. Fobbing off the prime economic input called energy is inane.
Volker's tools to control inflation by upping interest rates actually proves my point. Back in the 1970s
there was nowhere near the amount of debt that we have today.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

The US M2 shows no evidence of any surge in the 1970s.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/is-america-the-real-victim-of-anti-russia-sanctions

This article is one of the few I have ever seen adjusting for services sector fluff when discussing PPP GDP.

Ignore the boiler plate BS about Russian "atrocity" in Ukraine. The Kiev regime is an atrocity and has been
conducting mass murder of civilians in the Donbass since 2014.

The US market collapsed amid rising inflation and tightening of the Fed's policy, 13.06.2022.

Regulators plan to raise interest rates due to accelerated inflation. The markets of the USA, Europe and Asia are falling.

US stock markets opened lower. The S&P 500 broad market index fell 2.43% to 3805.95 as of 4:30 pm Moscow time. The NASDAQ Composite fell 3% to 11,008.10. The Dow Jones fell 2.01% to 30,762.04 points. This is evidenced by trading data.

Markets in Europe and Asia are also declining. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.82% to 415.02. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 3.39% to 21,067.58 points, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 3.01% to 26,987.44 points. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 1.17% to 4189.35.

Pressure on the quotes was exerted by the report on inflation growth in May: consumer prices (CPI index) in the US rose by 8.6% in annual terms against the projected 8.3%, according to the country's Department of Labor. This is the highest growth rate since December 1981. Inflation accelerated from 8.3% in April. Core inflation (excluding growth in food and energy prices) amounted to 6% (experts expected it to slow down to 5.9%).

The acceleration of inflation in May causes investors to fear that due to rising prices, the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will maintain the pace of rate hikes until September. Moreover, some market participants believe that the Fed may raise rates by 75 basis points at once if inflationary pressures do not ease. The last time the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points at once was in November 1994. The next Fed meeting will be held on June 15, 2022.

https://quote.rbc.ru/news/article/62a720829a79476698d9ad27.

You have got to be kidding me!

owais.usmani wrote:

https://twitter.com/DagnyTaggart369/status/1536642312322879488

You have got to be kidding me!

They can still pour beer into barrels, pumpkins, leather bags and pottery

If they need empty containers to pour their beer into, they can use their politician's heads.

This is typical US. So much for their talk about not needing Russian energy.

https://www.rt.com/business/557161-us-energy-transactions-russian-banks/

The US Treasury Department on Tuesday issued a general license authorizing energy-related transactions with sanctioned Russian banks until December. The previous permit was due to expire on June 24.

According to the document, published on the department’s website, transactions will be allowed with Vnesheconombank, Otkritie, Sovcombank, Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, and the Central Bank of Russia.

“For the purposes of this general license, the term ‘related to energy’ means the extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum,” the statement reads.

This includes crude oil, lease condensates, unfinished oils, natural gas liquids, petroleum products, natural gas, or other products capable of producing energy, it states.

Also included in this category is coal, wood, or agricultural products used to manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources.

Washington has imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest banks, freezing any assets “touching the US financial system” and prohibiting Americans from conducting business with them.

It turns out they can't stop the supposed "only" 5% imports of oil they did. But the rest of the world must stop buying Russian energy obviously. These retards just punched a huge hole in their own SWIFT sanctions. If I was Putin, I would force these idiots to pay with SPFS.

lancelot wrote:It turns out they can't stop the supposed "only" 5% imports of oil they did. But the rest of the world must stop buying Russian energy obviously. These retards just punched a huge hole in their own SWIFT sanctions. If I was Putin, I would force these idiots to pay with SPFS.

I think now would be a good time for counter-sanctions, let the US live without Russian energy.

Make them pay in rubles for fertiliser and energy... refuse to accept US dollars because they are toxic and can be seized at any time as the US government has proven.

Let them learn using a power tool as a weapon can break the tool and so it becomes useless as a weapon and as a tool for control...