Russian special military operation in Ukraine #12

A new Ukrainian missile attack in Russia

https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1514727570964729857

Ukraine was close to developing its own Iskander equivalent prior to the start of the war. Since western Ukraine is mostly untouched, they may have hasten completion of the SRBM rather than relying on old Tochka-U's. We'll see.

Regular wrote:I don't understand few things in this operation.

Why this time of the year was chosen when troop movement is road-bound most of the time?

Why Russia didn't start with a bombing campaign and let their strategic aviation from the leash?

Russia barely does anything to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization attempts and I believe with 1000+ sorties per day Russia could have ended Ukrainian efforts short. It would be highly demoralizing and even if it would bring destruction, most of it will be in the western parts.

What was the point of the Northern advance? It was noted many times that they will have to retreat due to troop shortages, not only Strelkov said that.

These things I don't understand and it does look like political decisions rather than what military would want.

1. Maskirovka, military deception. I did not expect an invasion when it happened because of Rasputitsa. I thought maybe a war in May or June, not in Feb or March.

2. Hearts and minds, bombing Ukraine into the stone age, aka a complete leveling of all civilian and military infrastructure, is not going to win over hearts and minds.

3. I think there was a terrible miscalculation that all the Russians would have to do is show up and the war would end. I think this is why there is talk in the western media, again always be skeptical, of Putin considering a shakeup in his intel agencies. In other words, Moscow was planning for a short war and thought that the fighting would be over before mobilization would impact the war

4. The northern approach? Again, that was meant to accomplish two things. First, demoralize Ukraine's leadership and maybe cause capitulation of the whole country in hours. Second, to allow for maskirovka. by attacking on multiple axis, you may spread your forces thin in some salients but you also force the opponent to ask, at least for a bit, which axis are you delivering your main blow against? Third, tie down large amounts of Ukrainian forces so they can't be used against in Donbass and near Crimea. I don't think there was ever a plan for long term occupation of northern Ukraine, and merely invading along the northern axis makes Ukrainian leadership have to keep troops in force to protect the way to Kiev from Belarus

The worst thing Russia did, IMVHO, was not planning for a long war. They expected what the United States expected in Iraq in 2003. Namely to be greeted with flowers and parades as liberators. When you plan for short wars instead of long wars of attrition it does not bode well for you.

Again, if I were to redo this thing. I launch airstrikes against Ukraine's leadership, railroad and road junctions, obliterate airfileds, military bases, ammo dumps, fuel stockpiles, and government and infrastructure assets. I also go in with no less than 400,000 troops and I encircle and take out Kiev and take their leadership captive before I do anything else. Then I focus on denazifying the Donbass, and protecting the Crimea. This war is over in days instead of something that will now probably last years or even decades.

Belisarius wrote:

Regular wrote:
What was the point of the Northern advance? It was noted many times that they will have to retreat due to troop shortages, not only Strelkov said that.

Scott Ritter assumes the northern advance was a "feint"

https://youtu.be/w5RKNoIhE40

https://youtu.be/SN7o-ThhFfY

No it was a political plan gone wrong

Tsarev went to Bucha, bunch of others. Recon went into Kharkov. Russian force made it to the crest of Krivoj Rog.
All failed to achieve anything there. After Russia pulled out of Bucha, people judged too friendly to Russia were murdered there, including 1-2 politicians.

Basically nearly the whole Ukrainian elite betrayed Russia. It was Medvechuk among others who convinced the leadership of the idea that they would switch to the Russian side if Russia goes in, and agreements were made with various elites.

In practice only Kherson, Berdyansk, Melitopol switched, Energodar reluctantly, and some villages in the Kharkov region

Belisarius wrote::olodymyr :elenskyy?

Ukraine today has banned the symbols Z and V.
https://t.me/inessas100/1123

Because banning something makes it disappear...

Many reports incoming that Kiev is being hammered tonight! Other cities in Ukraine too.

The Russian Air Force and Army still have many gifts to give out tonight!

Hearts and minds, bombing Ukraine into the stone age, aka a complete leveling of all civilian and military infrastructure, is not going to win over hearts and minds.

Negative, It will give a strong message to Russia's enemies that Russia is prepared to EXTERMINATE them if push comes to shove.

Okay ladies don't get your panties in a knot....

The reality is that Ukraine is a well thought out and planned trap for Russia by the US and NATO.

It is designed to weaken Russia economically, politically and militarily.

Ukraine acts as a "rope a dope" for the Russian forces to beat on while wearing themselves out.

Putin and the leadership where aware of this going in, hence the fact they dragged it out so long. But at the end they had to sacrifice the Donbas and back down to the West, a road that could only lead to Russia having to submit completely to the West.

Russia suffers heavier casualties and equipment losses in direct ratio to the speed that they move forward. The Russian army is trained for a high tempo attack and for which the US based their planning to have the Ukrainians inflict the most damage.

They have adjusted to counter this but there will be losses and provocations... relax, dig out the popcorn and your favorite drink. This may take some time.

ucmvulcan wrote:
The worst thing Russia did, IMVHO, was not planning for a long war.  They expected what the United States expected in Iraq in 2003. Namely to be greeted with flowers and parades as liberators.  When you plan for short wars instead of long wars of attrition it does not bode well for you.  

Again, if I were to redo this thing.  I launch airstrikes against Ukraine's leadership, railroad and road junctions, obliterate airfileds, military bases, ammo dumps, fuel stockpiles, and government and infrastructure assets.  I also go in with no less than 400,000 troops and I encircle and take out Kiev and take their leadership captive before I do anything else.  Then I focus on denazifying the Donbass, and protecting the Crimea.  This war is over in days instead of something that will now probably last years or even decades.  

Russia did plan for a long war; it started to take out defense industries, repair plants, ammo dumps, fuel depots quite early.
Well certainly after day 3 when it became clear plan A wasn't working as planned.

No-one goes into a war with just one scenario in mind. Hope for a quick war is a different thing. You hope for a quick war, but prepare for a protracted one.

Trouble is when plan B fails, then plan C, and you're onto WW3.
Now Russia did prepare for that, you can tell by its nuclear capabilities. But to allow things to get to that stage, you really do have to try..

Sad to see the news about Москва after waking up. Its a big loss for sentimental and prideful reasons but in the end the loss of one fairly old ship, even a “flagship” , will not effect the outcome of the war.
Heads up
Z

Azi wrote:Many reports incoming that Kiev is being hammered tonight! Other cities in Ukraine too.

The Russian Air Force and Army still have many gifts to give out tonight!

I demand several dozen FOABs dropped on all major Ukropistan cities and turn the entire occupied territories into a steaming pile of Amerinazi dung.

Azi wrote:Many reports incoming that Kiev is being hammered tonight! Other cities in Ukraine too.

The Russian Air Force and Army still have many gifts to give out tonight!

Ukraine has already lost tens of thousands of troops, obviously.

What do airstrikes and MLRS attacks mean? Are there troops on the ground to come in and take territory after the strikes?

Ukraine has 10+ million fighting-aged men, and who knows how many are brainwashed into fighting (certainly 5+ million).

Firebird wrote:I think people need to calm down about the Moskva.
It seems the storm, a fire and ordnance accident caused the problem.Far far bigger ships than the Moskva sink in merchant navy quite often.

Let alone an old ship thats being worked harder in this environment.

Russia has many other vessels to call upon without having the hassle of the Montreux Convention re Istanbul. It has plenty of modern frigates and corvettes, all very powerful and capable. From the Black Sea Fleet AND the Caspian Flotilla.
It also has land bridges from Kherson and Crimea and Nikolaev for the Odessa area.
Banderastanis would be stupid to move substantial numbers about because of Russia's vast air superiority.

Sadly things happen in war. But thankfully human casualties were pretty low. And there is not a very significant loss. Meanwhile the Banderascum are haemorraging huge losses every day. People need to RELAX!

Has the Moskva fired a shot in this conflict?
I was under the impression that it carried huge anti-ship missiles, which are not appropriate for a land war.

zorobabel wrote:

Azi wrote:Many reports incoming that Kiev is being hammered tonight! Other cities in Ukraine too.

The Russian Air Force and Army still have many gifts to give out tonight!

Ukraine has already lost tens of thousands of troops, obviously.

What do airstrikes and MLRS attacks mean? Are there troops on the ground to come in and take territory after the strikes?

Ukraine has 10+ million fighting-aged men, and who knows how many are brainwashed into fighting (certainly 5+ million).

To eliminate strategic targets. Parts of Kiev are without power...the first time Russia has attacked civilian infrastructure that the military also relies on. It is similar in other cities. I would say that the entire Ukrainian leadership is now also a legitimate target...so no more holiday trips by European politicians to Kiev!

Azi wrote:To eliminate strategic targets. Parts of Kiev are without power...the first time Russia has attacked civilian infrastructure that the military also relies on. It is similar in other cities. I would say that the entire Ukrainian leadership is now also a legitimate target...so no more holiday trips by European politicians to Kiev!

Good.

Would love to see an operation that can actually encircle Kiev. Also taking control of the border with Poland to cut off the constant flow of light and heavy weaponry from the West.

franco wrote:

They have adjusted to counter this but there will be losses and provocations... relax, dig out the popcorn and your favorite drink. This may take some time.

I just want to drink some vodka after following this and I don't even drink. It's cool and all until our Russian lads from this forum will be mobilized, there's a chance for that happening too. Just want to say, that heated arguments and reactions are very valid. There's so much at stake.

Regular wrote:

franco wrote:

They have adjusted to counter this but there will be losses and provocations... relax, dig out the popcorn and your favorite drink. This may take some time.

I just want to drink some vodka after following this and I don't even drink. It's cool and all until our Russian lads from this forum will be mobilized, there's a chance for that happening too. Just want to say, that heated arguments and reactions are very valid. There's so much at stake.

It will happen now I suspect.

But it can get yet worse than that

Basically the principle is the same for everyone. All cool until the war comes to your own yard

NATO was involved in targeting the Moskva and that's why the US tried to play it down and say the ship is still working. So they can accuse Russia of sinking it themselves

Because they know what it means. The Moskva was a major component of Russian strike power in the Black Sea, and nuclear deterrant as well as it can be armed with tactical nucleaf warheads.
Without it Russia's position is weakened significantly and it has to take decisive action to secure the entire Ukrainian coast.

Belisarius wrote::olodymyr :elenskyy?

Ukraine today has banned the symbols Z and V.
https://t.me/inessas100/1123

Well, now I know where to send all my ZZ Top cds to. . . .

I feel nervous , watching these assholes run this shitshow has me nervous and boiling

Arkanghelsk wrote:I feel nervous , watching these assholes run this shitshow has me nervous and boiling

Yeah well

It's Showtime now

I wouldn't have started the war. Not like this. I still stick to this position. But whatever, the momentum of events is going only in one direction and I don't think even the leaders at the top can stop it at this stage.

This forum needs to be cleaned up.
Let the crybaby go to F16 net or something similar.
Tired of repeating the same thing.
And they continue, and continue, bringing any rumor from the networks: that if they sank a ship, that if they dismissed such a Russian leader, that Russia will not run out of ammunition, that everything is poorly planned.
No evidence is provided, there is no serious and well-founded debate.
And it goes from one rumor to another.
Let's be honest: there are quite a few who work for the enemy.
Anyway, what is said here is not going to change much what happens on the front lines.

This is a 1917-1919 crisis situation

You can call the Ukraine situation and wider in the ex-USSR a civil war. But we don't have a civil war in the heartland - that's an advantage

- We face a larger and more united West by a considerable margin. Germany has no revolution of its own, no civil war in Finland
- Serbia like back then has become a creature of Versailles. If it can be reached, that will change
- Hungary back then was an ally under Bela Kun but it didn't last for too long, we couldn't reach them and might not be able to now either
- Greece and Bulgaria look to be souring towards NATO rapidly but their NATO regimes will attempt to hold on
- China is on our side and will keep Japan/America out and help our economy, this is a nice change
- Friendly regimes in Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar will keep the West checked in South-East Asia but this area is of little consequence to us for the moment
- Iran will keep Turkey out, but Turkey back then had its own war to be busy with, so no real change. When taking into account Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, we have more friends in the Middle East than we did before. They can create difficulties for the interventionists
- Saudi and UAE oil colonies of Britain are defiant, but they may be brought in line. It depends on China's actions.
- India is independent this time, but it's not going to get involved except through trade. Which is something at least.
- South America like back then is peripheral, but it is potentially more ready to act; we will see with Venezuela and its partners
- We have a worse position in the Ukraine, a better one in Central Asia, about the same in the Caucasus, Moldova and Baltic states
- The situation with Africa and other parts of Asia are merely marginally better than when they were European colonies. They will trade with us at least initially, but that might change. We have some footholds in Africa at least, as does China. This helps a little with trade and gives problems for the interventionists in securing resources.

Back then we won through mass mobilization, idealogical zeal, and the interventionists being exhausted from WW1 and having their own issues at home at the same time

Idealogical zeal is weaker today, but it's there, as people understand the West is attempting to crush us and we don't want their system
Economic wartime mobilization is only at the begining stages, but needs to be ramped up
Military mobilization will need to be Initiated sooner or later to some extent. The West has a lot more to lose from Russia going rogue this time round than 100 years ago, they will intervene more decisively

Russia has been through worse crisis than this, and many times. Our heartland is secure. But we do need a mental shift.

- Moskva did her 40 years in service. It was due for retirement soon.
- Lately, it was not venturing out of the Black Sea - not even to the Mediterranean.
- It died in battle- an honorable death. Rest in Piece. Chapter closed.
- The next Moskva will probably be a Yasen-M class nuclear sub.

Now the silver lining in the tragedy.
- The surviving crew is the asset here. They are trained specialists who will go on the newer ships that are in constructions.
- The Russian fleet always had difficulty forming ship crews and making them go through the long process of training them.
- Now, with the Moskva crew, there are a few hundred ready crews members.

As for Moskva's role in the operation:
- Her Vulkan anti-ship missiles are useless in this war.
- Her S-300 missiles. Meh... no 404 aircraft has flown over the sea
- She has no Kalibr.
- Her ASW helicopter is of no use against 404's ghost submarine fleet.
- Apart from her 130mm artillery, there is not much use of her weaponry

The 2 Adm. Gorshkov class frigates (Essen and Makarov) currently in the Black Sea are far better suited for this operation:
- Operates Kalibr
- Modern Shtil missile is more than enough against 404 air threats
-  Smaller and more economical

These 2 frigates and other supporting ships plus air superiority fighters are more than enough to carry amphibious operations in Odessa region.

Turkey can turn around tomorrow and let the NATO fleet in

What then?

We need all the ships we can get and we just lost our biggest one

It's a crisis and we need to secure the Black Sea coast, all of it.