Russian special military operation in Ukraine #17

https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-were-going-down/

Fighting has supposedly reached Raigorodok, a mere 5-6km from Slavyansk (!)

I sincerely hope that these criminal bastards receive a painful death. It will create panic among the foreign hired thugs in Ukraine who are still hoping to kill some Russians. Fear is the only language they understand. So let them have nightmares of ruthless Russian-MAONGOL hordes coming after them. They would tremble in fear whenever Russians approach towards their position.

https://www.rt.com/news/556221-mercenaries-ukraine-death-penalty/

Hinex1988 wrote:In addition, 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile have been intercepted near Svatovo, Donetsk People's Republic, and 7 Smerch rockets have been shot down near Sukhaya Kamenka, Kharkov Region, and Golaya Pristan, Kherson Region.

Must be true. Ergo, no pictures of this shoot down was released by the Russian defense ministry.

RTN wrote:

Hinex1988 wrote:In addition, 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile have been intercepted near Svatovo, Donetsk People's Republic, and 7 Smerch rockets have been shot down near Sukhaya Kamenka, Kharkov Region, and Golaya Pristan, Kherson Region.

Must be true. Ergo, no pictures of this shoot down was released by the Russian defense ministry.

One of the running themes throughout this is that Russia is rather tight-lipped and publishes little in the way of PR. Their briefings are concise and boringly to the point and not much dwelling is done on it. Just plain text, on to the next.

Days, sometimes even weeks after a particular briefing, things confirming it start trickling in. Less so now though, as Ukraine for two months have threatened with prison or KGB torture dungeons anyone confirming strikes etc with photos/video.

Still, stuff typically trickles in eventually.

UA briefings on the other hand come from a parallell universe. It's beyond parody sometimes, Baghdad Bob-ish for sure. They routinely exaggerate Russian losses by a factor of ten (!) and if even half of the things they claim were true the war certainly wouldn't be going the way it evidently is. Still, they're the #1 resource for most of western media, together with that Arestovich dude.

Nobody commented about a ceasefire . Well , perhaps not a great idea now that Donetsk is about to be liberated . A ceasefire now , kills the momentum , making the restarting of  the juggernaut , more difficult . But still the UA , suggested withdrawal from Donetsk , and  it is an idea ! The UA withdraw , then ceasefire , then Ukraine export wheat . Nobody dies of hunger . Perhaps talks start , but even if not , no problem . Everybody freezes movements and supply . External observers .


I saw on TV , Russia manufactures chips . Iran also manufactures chips . Maybe not latest version , but still useful enough .  Ukraine can not stop a marine assault of Odessa . It can be taken by Sea . Using marine landing . This can not be stopped by anti- ship missiles . Too many small Boats . Ukraine better negotiate withdrawal from Odessa , in return for transit rights for goods and use of ports , shipping .

A resettlement programme for ethnic Russians or Ukrainians should be arranged , in conflict areas , to save their lives . Minorities can be helped into majority areas , by state aid or house exchanges . Businesses can be moved too . Equivalent land can be provided for lost land .


https://www.rbth.com/science_and_tech/2016/08/16/the-rebirth-of-russias-microelectronics-industry_621421

Alexander Mercouris said on his show he got info that Russia is producing 30-50 Kaliber missiles a day. WOW. Even at 30 (I assume 7 days a week since its war time rates) that is 11K missiles a year. So I assume Russia is preparing for the worst at this point. A direct confrontation with the west. I assume all their other missiles are also at max production rates, so their output must be staggering. I don't see any evidence the west has engaged war production rates and all they have done is depleted their arsenals to supply Ukraine. There was a contract issued to replace Stinger missiles in the US, but how long will that take? 12-18 months?

A lot of people claim cruise missile are expensive, but when you really break it down, its not that expensive vs a bombing mission. After all its a bomb with wings a simple engine and fuel tank. Fighters cost 20-30K/hour so 4 hours, 120K + guided bomb 4-10K min and you are at 125K. How much is a set of wings, a simple turbine and guidance computer?

mnztr wrote:Alexander Mercouris said on his show he got info that Russia is producing 30-50 Kaliber missiles a day. WOW. Even at 30 (I assume 7 days a week since its war time rates) that is 11K missiles a year. So I assume Russia is preparing for the worst at this point. A direct confrontation with the west. I assume all their other missiles are also at max production rates, so their output must be staggering. I don't see any evidence the west has engaged war production rates and all they have done is depleted their arsenals to supply Ukraine. There was a contract issued to replace Stinger missiles in the US, but how long will that take? 12-18 months?

A lot of people claim cruise missile are expensive, but when you really break it down, its not that expensive vs a bombing mission. After all its a bomb with wings a simple engine and fuel tank. Fighters cost 20-30K/hour so 4 hours, 120K + guided bomb 4-10K min and you are at 125K. How much is a set of wings, a simple turbine and guidance computer?

I doubt 30+ a day, but it could be close. I have seen indications elsewhere (eg on some Russian forums they have shown that certain relevant companies were hiring people en masse to fill in the double or even triple shifts) that production of some gadgets has been ramped up like crazy (CMs and UCAVs...)

And yeah, regarding your calculation you are absolutely correct. Can't vouch for the specific numbers, but it's definitely somewhere along those lines. Add to that the risk of losing a pilot. Pilots aren't cheap.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Why is everyone in Kherson wearing winter clothing?  Is Kherson in Narnia or something?

Khersons local babushki just doing their thing at the central market two days (not two+ months) ago:



Most prices in hryvnia/griven (ГН), still. Took about a year for Crimea to fully ruble-ize back again to its roots so that's not too strange. Russian, their native language, rules tho.

Why would you risk taking Odessa by sea ,they can attack from land. An opposed amphibious landing is costly and dangerous. It would be much better if they stayed off shore while the land attack happened. Once that is underway sail 50 KM up the coast, take the resort town there and establish a logistics hub as well as attack from the west.

nomadski wrote:
 Ukraine can not stop a marine assault of Odessa . It can be taken by Sea . Using marine landing . This can not be stopped by anti- ship missiles . Too many small Boats . Ukraine better negotiate withdrawal from Odessa , in return for transit rights for goods and use of ports , shipping .

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

mnztr wrote:Alexander Mercouris said on his show he got info that Russia is producing 30-50 Kaliber missiles a day. WOW. Even at 30 (I assume 7 days a week since its war time rates) that is 11K missiles a year. So I assume Russia is preparing for the worst at this point. A direct confrontation with the west. I assume all their other missiles are also at max production rates, so their output must be staggering. I don't see any evidence the west has engaged war production rates and all they have done is depleted their arsenals to supply Ukraine. There was a contract issued to replace Stinger missiles in the US, but how long will that take? 12-18 months?

A lot of people claim cruise missile are expensive, but when you really break it down, its not that expensive vs a bombing mission. After all its a bomb with wings a simple engine and fuel tank. Fighters cost 20-30K/hour so 4 hours, 120K + guided bomb 4-10K min and you are at 125K. How much is a set of wings, a simple turbine and guidance computer?

I doubt 30+ a day, but it could be close. I have seen indications elsewhere (eg on some Russian forums they have shown that certain relevant companies were hiring people en masse to fill in the double or even triple shifts) that production of some gadgets has been ramped up like crazy (CMs and UCAVs...)

And yeah, regarding your calculation you are absolutely correct. Can't vouch for the specific numbers, but it's definitely somewhere along those lines. Add to that the risk of losing a pilot. Pilots aren't cheap.

Your doubts are misplaced. It is clear that Russia is playing for keeps so it needs to be able to produce thousands of missiles in a short period of time.
NATzO can attack at any moment. Also, if factories can make 30, then they can make 60 with marginal effort. If they had real bottlenecks, then they
would not be able to produce even 30. The effort to produce a single unit falls off with volume and is not constant.

We could only guess how much territory the Ukraine will cede by the time 'elensky and his AngloZionist handlers are done fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

My guess is Russia will reach the Polish border and "Evacuate" the Banderites and NATO Mercenaries to the nearest graveyard.

mnztr wrote:Alexander Mercouris said on his show he got info that Russia is producing 30-50 Kaliber missiles a day. WOW. Even at 30 (I assume 7 days a week since its war time rates) that is 11K missiles a year. So I assume Russia is preparing for the worst at this point. A direct confrontation with the west....

Nah, that's what nukes are for

They just developed a taste for contactless warfare after Syria, that is all

Serberus wrote:US vassal regime of Australia’s donation to Ukraine, the tin can “Bushmaster” has had its first confirmed case of denazification.

I'm more interested in seeing close up images ofdozens of m777s, FH70s, Caesars and PzH2000s destroyed or captured. Who cares about jeeps.

Also if the Russian government declares a ceasefire and mission accomplished after it completely breaks through in the Donbass, this is would be disgusting and a repeat of the winter war. Right when the Russians were on their way to Helsinki and nothing was stopping them, the Finns sued for peace, the Russians accepted and Finland has declared the war as a victory since then, because they didn't turn communist. For Russia's sake, I hope Putin doesnt entertain any talks of peace for neutrality, since this gives Ukraine the ability to declare propaganda victory of not being dismembered. Finlandization failed once, it will fail twice. All it creates ais a temporarily neutral state which spreads russophobic dehumanizing propaganda.

Broski wrote:We could only guess how much territory the Ukraine will cede by the time 'elensky and his AngloZionist handlers are done fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

My guess is Russia will reach the Polish border and "Evacuate" the Banderites and NATO Mercenaries to the nearest graveyard.

Judging solely from where Russia is concentrating its forces, and considering Putin is not committing a lot more troops for major pushes, it seems that the goal is to drive out the Ukrainians from the Donbass completely and that the land bridge to Crimea will be kept. Now the situation could change, but other than to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea it seems that Russia may be close to achieving its occupation objectives of this war, but alas, I am just a guy who sits in his study and reads David Glantz, Richard Overy, John Erickson and the memoirs of Zhukov, Konev, and other Soviet generals so I do not know what is in the mind of Putin and the Russian military and political leadership and I do not pretend to think I do.

Kiko wrote:With today's VVP talks with Scholz and Macron, he might just potentially driven a slight wedge over up till now West's unified diplomatic positions.

No to ceasefire, yes to prolonged talks. Each day that passes with Allied territorial gains renders Zelensky's masters Blinken and Nuland positions untenable and unacceptable.

I don't buy it

The West is unified on Russia and this is just the good cop bad cop act

Biden even 1-2 months ago had reportedly already accepted that Russia had no choice but to win the war, and that means he was looking for a way out of the situation. Because his plan to orchestrate this unsustainable war that would bleed Russia was countered and largely failed.

So here come France and Germany with some phony peace initiative, to save face, to spin it all as a Ukrainian victory afterwards, and most importantly to keep the Maidan regime in power
If they wanted peace, they had the chance to pressure Kiev into following the Minsk agreements right up until the very last day, as we all remember
Or even prevent Kiev from going back on its preliminary agreements in the Istanbul talks. But neither Scholz, nor Macron nor anyone else didn't do that either.

But now it's as Medvedev says - no possibility of any sort of peace deal that would serve to the Western unilateral order. The West literally just attempted to destroy Russia via the Ukraine, kill its soldiers, topple its authorities and give the Ukraine weapons to attack Russian soil. I'm sorry, that's quite the escalation. Russia should be providing ICBMs to Iran and North Korea and Venezuela, not trying to etch out a deal with some Scholz and Macron. I understand it's likely just a manuever, that Moscow knows Kiev will reject - but it still evokes bewilderment

limb wrote:

Serberus wrote:US vassal regime of Australia’s donation to Ukraine, the tin can “Bushmaster” has had its first confirmed case of denazification.

I'm more interested in seeing close up images ofdozens of m777s, FH70s, Caesars and PzH2000s destroyed or captured. Who cares about jeeps.

Also if the Russian government declares a ceasefire and mission accomplished after it completely breaks through in the Donbass, this is would be disgusting and a repeat of the winter war. Right when the Russians were on their way to Helsinki and nothing was stopping them, the Finns sued for peace, the Russians accepted and Finland has declared the war as a victory since then, because they didn't turn communist. For Russia's sake, I hope Putin doesnt entertain any talks of peace for neutrality, since this gives Ukraine the ability to declare propaganda victory of not being dismembered. Finlandization failed once, it will fail twice. All it creates ais a temporarily neutral state which spreads russophobic dehumanizing propaganda.

Where would you get such images from, if they're getting wrecked behind Ukrainian front-lines?

And they're certainly not going to ruin morale and show-up their masters by photographing destroyed NATO tech
They might even go as far as carting the wreckage out, who knows.

But fair enough, it's really up to Russia to show such footage. The Ukrainians have UAVs recording their footage and are publishing it all the time, nothing to stop Russia doing the same thing.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Broski wrote:We could only guess how much territory the Ukraine will cede by the time 'elensky and his AngloZionist handlers are done fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

My guess is Russia will reach the Polish border and "Evacuate" the Banderites and NATO Mercenaries to the nearest graveyard.

Judging solely from where Russia is concentrating its forces, and considering Putin is not committing a lot more troops for major pushes, it seems that the goal is to drive out the Ukrainians from the Donbass completely and that the land bridge to Crimea will be kept.  Now the situation could change, but other than to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea it seems that Russia may be close to achieving its occupation objectives of this war, but alas, I am just a guy who sits in his study and reads David Glantz, Richard Overy, John Erickson and the memoirs of Zhukov, Konev, and other Soviet generals so I do not know what is in the mind of Putin and the Russian military and political leadership and I do not pretend to think I do.

Any conclusion of the war that doesnt take at least all regions of novorossiya is akin to finlandization, and all finlandization brings is a mostly intact state full of rabidly russophobic brainwashed masses. Chernigov, poltava and sumy must be taken too, because they're historically russian cities.,

From Charly:

The Russian Navy losses 3 months into the conflict:

Sunk
Cruiser Moskva: sunk (still unknown cause)
Large Landing ship Saratov (burnt and sunk at Berdyansk pier)
Small Serna Class landing ship 9sunk at Sanke Island)

Damaged
5 Raptor class assault boats