Russian special military operation in Ukraine #19

Regular wrote:

Vann7 wrote:More evidence , of Russian airforce inadequate and outdated combat tactics , they still using those outdated anti armor weapons , subsonic missiles , that are verrrry slow and inadequate against moving targets. I have seen this misses  A  LOT  in the syrian war..  That A Ka-52 fire a missile at a terrorist
moving car and years or more later , when the manually guided missile reach the car , it miss.

Good example, but Russia does have Hermes, just not in the mass service yet. Also, lancet drones can be helicopter launched too

Good example?! I only see a bunch of lies, the missile he talks about is supersonic (mach 1.8 ), the occasion he describes did not end with a miss but with the vehicle destroyed as you can see here:
https://southfront.org/in-video-russian-ka-52-attack-helicopter-hunts-down-isis-terrorists-in-central-syria/
Not to mention the fact that he didn't present any evidence of "this misses A LOT in the Syrian war" because he hasn't seen anything, and is just pulling this information out of his own ass.

Belisarius wrote:
Good example?! I only see a bunch of lies, the missile he talks about is supersonic (mach 1.8 ), the occasion he describes did not end with a miss but with the vehicle destroyed as you can see here:
https://southfront.org/in-video-russian-ka-52-attack-helicopter-hunts-down-isis-terrorists-in-central-syria/
Not to mention the fact that he didn't present any evidence of "this misses A LOT in the Syrian war" because he hasn't seen anything, and is just pulling this information out of his own ass.

He is typical troll and constantly trying to diminish russian military successes.  
the Truth is that you almost can't find any real combat video of those NATO fancy system at all, except from military drills.
an example, you can find almost endless number of videos of Ka-52, Mi-35 and Mi-28 in combat action destroying armored vehicles, while you can find few Hellfire missiles combat videos and almost all against infantry or a car.

At the end of the day, Russia demonstrates that it has full spectrum of all modern combat system, most of which are the best in their class.
Maybe their combat drones are not good as western ones or because they are not being deployed in large number.

Regarding al mighty western weapons, just remember the stories how Javelin would be a game changer. We didn't see much of it....
More than 100 Switchblade drones were supplied to Ukraine and where is the result?

Ned86 wrote:At the end of the day, Russia demonstrates that it has full spectrum of all modern combat system, most of which are the best in their class.
Maybe their combat drones are not good as western ones or because they are not being deployed in large number.

Russia is as known a little late into UAV business, they need to saturate the armed forces with them and then the results will be qualitatively different, because it will be possible to keep wide fronts under constant surveillance and interdiction. Kronstadt is starting three shift work on the production of the Orion as we speak...

Arkanghelsk wrote: There are reports from the Kharkov region that Russian troops are moving to the northern outskirts of Kharkov.  The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine say that the fighting is taking place along the Belgorod-Kharkov road in the area where the villages of Kochubeevka and Dementievka are located.  From there to the Kharkov ring road no more than 13-14 km.  At the same time, strikes are being made on the enemy garrison in the Chuguev area, and the RF Armed Forces are advancing east of Kharkov.

The analyst Dima was correct

The Kharkov operation is taking place before Odessa

It will be :

Belogorovka

Seversk

Slavyansk

Kramatorsk

Bakhmut

And then Kharkov

Some dude from the russian government visited the liberated parts of Kharkov region in the last days, passports are given out and some russian bank opened offices = Russia will keep the region.

LMFS wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:They wanted light gun, at any cost, and traded robustness for it. It works for US, as it mostly relies on air power for fire support. Ukraine doesn't have that luxury.

Just creating a good robust gun was not enough to syphon premium dollars to the pockets of the MIC, they needed to pitch some "unique selling point" to the corrupt officials in charge of procurement. So they created an ultra expensive shitty product that breaks whenever used. They indeed better rely on air power, because with guns like this their artillery is clearly just for the show

But western media will tell you it´s "sophisticated". Just like the 60 year old M109.

Arkanghelsk wrote:https://youtu.be/BDLqEuXU6MY


**VSU is switching to a new tactical mode

Instead of defending, VSU will try to "hug" the SV of Russia - in other words hanging back did not work for Ukraine , they were decimated by rocket and artillery fire and lost the positions anyway

This won't change anything, except make the clashes more intense, and the Ukrainians will be annihilated faster

But it seems there is a growing desperation from political leadership, and so the military is advising to send VSU and territorial defense into head on attacks to pre empt the Russian advance to Seversk

So we will see the first "close attacks" by the Ukrainians, where they will wait for Russian army to approach some prepared positions and then charge at the front to force a breakdown in the advance

I do not believe they will be successful, but it is a desperate attempt to prevent donbass from being liberated

Charge with what? Toyotas? Even if they can find a few tanks a frontal attack will mean they will be annihilated even faster. The fortifications were the only reason for the "slow" progress.

Belisarius wrote:Lisichansk is under Russian control, info from Wagner
https://t.me/TheEternalUkrainian2/10504

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/lysichansk-is-under-control-of-the-russian-side.html#comments

Ned86 wrote:

Regarding al mighty western weapons, just remember the stories how Javelin would be a game changer. We didn't see much of it....
More than 100 Switchblade drones were supplied to Ukraine and where is the result?

They got 700 Switchblades.

Belisarius wrote:

Good example?! I only see a bunch of lies, the missile he talks about is supersonic (mach 1.8 ), the occasion he describes did not end with a miss but with the vehicle destroyed as you can see here:
https://southfront.org/in-video-russian-ka-52-attack-helicopter-hunts-down-isis-terrorists-in-central-syria/
Not to mention the fact that he didn't present any evidence of "this misses A LOT in the Syrian war" because he hasn't seen anything, and is just pulling this information out of his own ass.

I will admit, I didn't read his full wall of text.

I don't think I berated VKS, I said that all airforces would face the same issue.

Low-value opportunistic targets on the battlefield waste precision weapons. One can even say that ATGM is an overkill, especially wasting two of them on such target. These munitions were never designed to destoroy a moving cars going 60+ km/h. For such soft targets there is solution - cheap drones that can disable or destroy vehicles. Using brimstones makes even less sense.

New modification of Ka-52 was tested with UAV integration so it's not like the Syrian experience or new trends weren't addressed. Tanks, bunkers and etc. are not a problem. Easy targets that require powerful missiles and both Ataka and Vikhr are good for them. But Ukrainians are increasingly going light on vehicles and soon they will be riding technicals or civvie cars like they do in their recent retreats. And I think that helicopters are the perfect platform for suicide drone/loitering munitions as they have an advantage in detection and opportunities. Lancet-3 apparently can engage targets with no or minimal operator input so it shouldn't be hard for the gunner to designate multiple targets and let the auto-tracking do the work. Yes, it would be even slower than "subsonic" munitions, but fast enough to engage moving targets if used from heights (diving speeds are over 300 kmh), especially when anti-drone weaponry is at it's infancy.

Sanctions or not, Kronstadt expanded their production line during this conflict, and according to some Russian sources they were hiring people to work in the factory, 4 new shifts if I recall correctly. Who knows what they are producing. It will be interesting to see (if we will ever see that is, Russian side is very secret about weapons being used) Sorry if I come across as a fanboy of drones, but I saw a conflict where drones played a bigger role. Russian artillery is crushing Ukrainian troops thanks to cheap ass Orlan drones, I never imagined that such symbiosis can have evident results like that. Russian usage of drones is insane and there goes my opinion that "it won't be effective in conventional warfare". I was part of "drones are just a fad" crew, but this was based on expensive UCAVs. Even Igla/Stinger/Strela/Martel operators who should have an easy life countering them are one-time use, when they shoot down a drone they invite an artillery barrage on their perimeter.

Regarding al mighty western weapons, just remember the stories how Javelin would be a game changer. We didn't see much of it....
More than 100 Switchblade drones were supplied to Ukraine and where is the result?

I think there are waaaaay more switchblade than 100. They did deliver 500 launchers with 10x or more suicide drones each.

But then again, for bad dancer, even his own balls are in the way. I have a feeling that most of it end up captured, look at NLAWs. Give Russians these weapons and you might see different results. Russian suicide drones were filmed taking out artillery pieces and unit formations with little issues, not to mention how many of them were not filmed. We also seen Russians using Javelins against UA armor. If you actually want to hear how they perform, don't ask Ukrainians, but Russians.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1542976492807901185

caveat emptor wrote:
"Hug" would work better in large urban areaa and with experienced infantry. I'm not sure if it can work on current battlefield, where Seversk is biggest urban agglomeration and rest are villages and open terrain. Also, they are using mostly reservists now. They will get obliterated by helis.
As for Kharkov, there's nothing that points to imminent offensive. Neither they have manpower for it, in the area. They would have to attack from south first and cut supply lines. Kharkov is a huge city. Much bigger than Mariopol. I believe they will just work on" softening" of defences. Hence everyday strikes. If you look at it, they hit Nikolaev also every day and it is much easier target to take. That also might be next.
But let them first finish Donbas. There's still a lot to do.

Yes it is not a logical choice but the pace of defeat quickens,

Plus this is based on VSU own declarations

The whole line is collapsing at once

They must commit forces to battle or else they face a rout on many fronts

Yes it is open land, but still they must prevent a general collapse along the seversk artemovsk bakhmut line

As for Kharkov the disposition of forces is the same

7 to 9 BTGs for both sides , reports are flooding in about Russian movements to Stary Saltov and Chuihiev

Kharkov is the next major objective, either concurrent or after Donbass:


The RF Armed Forces inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv direction

It became known that the 130th battalion of the territorial defense of Kyiv in just a week of fighting in the Kharkov region lost 18 people killed.  The corresponding tearful and mournful post appeared on the official Facebook page of the militants.

Such high losses in just a week are a consequence of the successful actions of the RF Armed Forces in the Kharkov direction.  Rocket, artillery and air strikes are carried out daily, giving Ukrainian fighters no chance of survival.

VSU must issue an all out counterattack

The Russian advance is fast paced,  and they risk a collapse of the seversk artemovsk bakhmut line

If they wait in seversk, it will be finish within the week

The ground behind seversk is flat with little to protect the VSU

Russia can encircle seversk and subject it to massive bombardment

This next phase will progress faster than anyone expects

Blocking the road at belogorovka is naturally the optimal decision or gregorovka with spetsnaz commandos crossing the Seversky donets north of the village

Arkanghelsk wrote:The RF Armed Forces inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv direction

It became known that the 130th battalion of the territorial defense of Kyiv in just a week of fighting in the Kharkov region lost 18 people killed....

18 people in a week is nothing, that's one decent mortar strike, 2 or 3 men per day, it's a joke

If they are going to brag about "inflicting heavy losses" they need to move into triple digit number a day per location otherwise they should keep quiet in order to avoid looking like they are pussyfooting again

PapaDragon wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:The RF Armed Forces inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv direction

It became known that the 130th battalion of the territorial defense of Kyiv in just a week of fighting in the Kharkov region lost 18 people killed....

18 people in a week is nothing, that's one decent mortar strike, 2 or 3 men per day, it's a joke

If they are going to brag about "inflicting heavy losses" they need to move into triple digit number a day per location otherwise they should keep quiet in order to avoid looking like they are pussyfooting again

Understand the number of forces in Kharkov region, is small

Currently both sides have about 7 to 9 BTG in the area

So the intensity of clashes is lower

Still it points to general movement in Kharkov region

Tactical retreat from Sverodonetsk because Lisichansk is much easier to protect. That propaganda BS held how long? 2 days?

Arkanghelsk wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:The RF Armed Forces inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv direction

It became known that the 130th battalion of the territorial defense of Kyiv in just a week of fighting in the Kharkov region lost 18 people killed....

18 people in a week is nothing, that's one decent mortar strike, 2 or 3 men per day, it's a joke

If they are going to brag about "inflicting heavy losses" they need to move into triple digit number a day per location otherwise they should keep quiet in order to avoid looking like they are pussyfooting again

Understand the number of forces in Kharkov region, is small

Currently both sides have about 7 to 9 BTG in the area

So the intensity of clashes is lower

Still it points to general movement in Kharkov region

18 dead means usually another 50 wounded. If all BTG`s are effected the same way... Well, do the math. This are serious losses for a side that has only 70 year old men and womend form 18 - 50+ as reserves.

Currently this is a sideshow for the Russian Army. After the victory in Lisichansk the frontline there is much shorter, that frees some troops for other duties.

hey Vann what subsonic missiles are you talking about? old Shturm, Ataka, and Vikhr are all supersonic. Russia hasn't had a subsonic helicopter launched missile since the ancient Falanga missile, and Russia is not using that.

Hole wrote:Tactical retreat from Sverodonetsk because Lisichansk is much easier to protect. That propaganda BS held how long? 2 days?

The Mark of Zorro looks so beautiful on a map.  Just saying.  For those of you who are not from the United States, Zorro was something of a robin hood hero tale set in Mexico about a masked swordsman hero who gave the oligarchs and the corrrupt officials there a run for their money.  His calling card was slashing a Z on their clothes.

rather than commenting on the news of Lysichansk liberation, I wrote a retrospective and an analyisis pondering on its implications and the ongoing operations

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/07/02/parte-de-guerra-02-07-2022-liberacion-de-lisichansk/

I really hope Aiden aislin and Sean pinner aren't executed. In interviews, they seemed to be genuinely remorseful, and willing to provide valuable information about western involvement in Ukrainian units. They could be mini Pauluses, denouncing western support of the Ukraine national ideology instead of martyrs. It's actually a travesty that they're being executed while dozens of azov members are being exchanged.


Bbb-ut no exceptions you'll say. Well isn't exchanging fucking azov members an exception?

This is a pretty rough war scene but for me , zero sympathy.
https://t.me/c/1698707268/265420

Backman wrote:This is a pretty rough war scene but for me , zero sympathy.
https://t.me/c/1698707268/265420

It says

Message in a private group or channel.
This link will only work if you are a member. Message

Can you provide the video in some other way?

limb wrote:I really hope Aiden aislin and Sean pinner aren't executed. In interviews, they seemed to be genuinely remorseful, and willing to provide valuable information about western involvement in Ukrainian units. They could be mini Pauluses, denouncing western support of the Ukraine national ideology instead of martyrs.  It's actually a travesty that they're being executed while dozens of azov members are being exchanged.


Bbb-ut no exceptions you'll say. Well isn't exchanging fucking azov members an exception?

The thing is Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner are worth nothing, probably they are better dead than alive

At least with hohol nazis, the government can get Russian lives for them , which are the most precious and important thing

But Sean Pinner and Aiden Aslin are worth next to nothing- the west won't give anything for them, and Ukrainians would not trade Russians for westerners


And thats the point, if you fight for Ukraine, you get nothing back for it as a westerner, you get hung by LDNR if captured, shot in the back if you run away, or shot before being captured


It's funny how little value western lives are now


I guess never leave a man behind is a Russian concept , not an American one


Who would have thought

Werewolf wrote:

Can you provide the video in some other way?

I think this is the one
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/13330