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Firebird wrote:There seems to be a bit of a fundamental shift with Russia's policy towards the CIS.
The old approach was to simply develop the Eurasian Union, with key players on-side and coaxing more non-committal members in. The prob with the Eurasian Union is that its vulnerable to outside forces ie crooked rats like Uncle Sham. Just look at Belarus, Kazakstan, Armenia etc.
The new approach, as mentioned by Putin is more about "de Communisation" ie looking at what was Russia before some of the idiocies of the USSR. So we're now seeing parts of the former Ukraine looking to rejoin Russia. Likewise with Belarus after Lukashenko.
It's still the same strategy minus the massive bomb Russia's enemies exploded in Ukraine which made Russia change its policy towards Ukraine. The Ukraine war wasn't a war of choice (technically speaking), and thus is neither absorbing Ukraine territories or its people. The Russians leadership has made it abundantly clear they prefer to rather stop the SMO than continue it if Ukraine were to agree to Russia's "peace terms". That's to say Ukraine would continue to exist, having jurisdiction over Russians with some made up nationality as is "Ukranians". The SMO isn't truly about righting the wrongs of the Soviet times. A byproduct of the SMO aligns with such an ideal and is fed to the sheeple as such to garner sympathy and consent.
With Kazakstan, Krushchev had the moronic idea of giving away a chunk of Russian land to the Kazak SSR. And post Communism, ethnic Russians fled Kazakstan. Furthermore, back in Imperial Russia, Kazakstan was part of Russia itself.
Evidently demonic forces from Washington are looking to do a "Pukraine" with Kazakstan at some point.
Washington sees enemy vulnerabilities and seeks to exploit them for maximum damage. It's not their problem Russia had idiots as leaders for close to a century making retarded strategic decisions. Russia is their enemy, a roadblock to the sustainment of the "rules-based liberal order". Thus in their view there are only two options for dealing with Russia: 1: Weaken Russia and force Russia to capitulate and become an insignificant junior partner that knows its place in the pecking order or 2: If that fails...destroy them short of a nuclear war between the two (regime change/cold war paradigm collapse).
It's just business.
Russia can face the challenge or cry about it and lose... either way they got no choice. It's either that or well... even the 90's will fall short.
Existential is indeed the right word.
To me, the solution is to absorb atleast a chunk of the current Kazakstan into Russia proper. And the rest of it could be headed up by a no-nonsense character.
Thats not about "empire building". Its simply looking at the identity of Kazakstan, what is best for it, preventing bloodshed and enhancing prosperity and a good quality of life. Because the Devil aka Uncle Sham will promise one thing, but only bring misery and lies.
Hell will freeze over before the Kazakh elite give a single inch of land back to Russia voluntarily. Land will have to be retaken by force, as always, aka war. The Russian idiots should have thought twice before giving the Kazakh clans their own keys to a kingdom. Now you figure out the obvious to anyone that wasn't an idiot in 1990... they don't want to give anything back (not the Georgians, the Ukranians, the Kazakhs etc). It's theirs period! Not lent or borrowed from Russia, it's their land! (in their view of course). The Kazakh elite decide what is best for them, not the Kremlin. There lies Russia's security vulnerabilities and issues managing foreign elite obedience.
This is one of the many reasons why you see such unease with the Kazakh elite, and why, uncharacteristic of allies, this elite has been negatively vocal about the SMO. As if to say "Don't even dare to do what you're doing with Ukraine to us under any excuse". And of course Russia would have reason, knowing full well what the recent color revolution attempt in Kazakhstan was all about... meaning; a big chunk of the Kazakh elite was ready to jump ship (were the coup to have succeeded). What comes after a successful coup attempt is pretty clear... don't look further than Ukraine. The Kazakh elite know it well, as do the Russian elite. The Kremlin can keep appearances but it must be fuming, as they should, this ain't no joke.
To the Kazakh elite it's pretty clear they don't want to be subjected to a regime where the wrath of Russia is only kept at bay provided Kazakhstan's relationship with Russia's enemies is minimal. What if in the distant future the Chinese become one of Russia's main geopolitical rivals and the Kazakh chose to side with the Chinese? Do the Kazakh elite want to forever be subjected to a conditional relationship where Russia dictates their behavior and the limits of their foreign policy engagement? Hell NO! Do they want to be always tied to Russia's ship? Even if it sinks? Hell NO!
Thus as you can see the bilateral relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan under a cold war regime is HIGH Maintenance, with time bombs built-in that need just the right trigger to be pressed by Russia's rivals for them to go off. The SMO in Ukraine is free catnip that the empire (and it lackies - mainly Britain/Turkey) is and will be using in Kazakhstan to gain influence, gain new well placed high profile assets, as well as to poison the well as much as possible to amplify the seeds of distrust. This will work great with the opportunistically corrupt, treasonous bad faith actors who often hide behind nationalism to achieve power. God knows the millions the U.S and company have invested in NGO's and business deals in Kazakhstan are not for nothing. As I've said, the current color revolution attempt in Kazakhstan is but a trial run... more will come. The empire will look at the board, see what failed, what succeeded, and re-arrange their pawns, wait opportunistically for the right time and trigger and go at it again. It's how this works. That is not to say the empire is eventually bound to succeed. With proactive preventive work, both from Russia and responsible Kazakh leadership it's possible to get rid/neutralize/keep the filth at bay. Plus there are many other variables that can take the empire's eye off Kazakhstan for extended periods of time (engagements in the chessboard elsewhere). There is no greater success story that could attest to good preventive work than than stable politics and development in Kazakhstan over say, 2 decades from now since the first color revolution incident. Anything short of that however will point to serious problems with the clean up response and policies thereafter.
Hopefully Russia can be very proactive with all this. Esp given that it can now weather any sanctions storms created by Uncle Sham. A Russia with much of the Ukraine, Belarus and the better parts of Kazakstan could be pretty powerful AND unified on the World stage. Other former Soviet areas could very likely then be re-attracted by the softest of power plays.
Russia is in no position to do anything right now with regards to Kazakhstan except lend a hand and hope their assets and sympathizers in Kazakhstan can keep the ship afloat, right the ship, keeping their competition at bay. Looking as inoffensive and as friendly as possible being key. But once Ukraine is over, if Russia is not proactive elsewhere...well, don't cry about the consequences of sitting on your laurels. If I were a Kremlin strategic thinker, I would be drawing a new map of Kazakhstan right about now with detailed war plans just in case... you should never get caught with your pants down (should Russia get outplayed again by CIA/MI6 and company like in Ukraine + the Chinese on the distant horizon being a potential threat).
Last edited by ATLASCUB on Wed Jul 13, 2022 3:52 am; edited 4 times in total
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