Russian Economy General News: #13

Russia became the country with the lowest unemployment in June, 08.04.2024.

In June, Russia became the country with the lowest unemployment among the largest economies.

MOSCOW, August 4 — RIA Novosti. According to the results of June, Russia became the country with the lowest unemployment among the world's largest economies, according to RIA Novosti's analysis of the latest data from the G20 countries.

As Rosstat reported this week , in June the unemployment rate hit a new historical low and amounted to 2.4 percent.

The rate is slightly higher in Japan , where unemployment fell to 2.5 percent in the first month of summer, compared to 2.6 in May. In Mexico, it rose from 2.6 to 2.8 percent, while in South Korea, it has remained at 2.8 percent for the fourth month in a row.

In the rest of the G20 countries, the rate is above three percent. The situation is most acute in South Africa , where unemployment has not fallen below 30 percent for the fourth year.

Unemployment fell or remained unchanged in most major economies in June. The situation improved most in Spain , where it fell to 11.27 percent in the second quarter, compared with 12.29 percent in the first. In Russia, the rate fell by 0.2 percentage points over the month, as did Brazil , where unemployment fell to a multi-year low of 6.9 percent.

In some countries, unemployment increased: by 0.1 percentage points in the United States (4.1 percent), Germany (six percent), Italy (seven percent), and Australia (4.1 percent). In Canada , the rate increased from 6.2 to 6.4 percent, and Mexican unemployment also increased by the same amount. The biggest increase was seen in India , where the rate jumped from seven to 9.2 percent in a month.

https://ria.ru/20240804/rossija-1963943360.html

Schadenfreude:

Russia has every chance to escape the economic apocalypse, by Victoria Nikiforova for RiaNovosti. 08.07.2024.

The August heat and the collapse of Asian markets is a combination that will make Russians shudder for the rest of their lives. This is how the 1998 crisis began, which led to Russia's default, the collapse of the ruble, and numerous bankruptcies. Nothing worse has probably happened to us.

"Black Monday" on August 5th initially caused an unpleasant déjà vu. The Japanese stock exchange crashed to a record low, followed by Asian stock markets, then a red tsunami engulfed Europe and reached the US : the Nasdaq index fell by 17 percent.

Western business publications became worried: "Investors are panicking, going into cash." "The recession is going like clockwork." "There hasn't been such a collapse since 1987." However, in Russia, meanwhile, absolutely nothing was happening.

Nobody ran to the exchange offices or ATMs. Volatility on the Moscow Exchange was reduced to 2.5 percent. The ruble, as if in mockery, gained a little more against the dollar. Russians continued to fry on the beaches and drink smoothies en masse. In fact, no one even noticed this notorious "Black Monday" in our country.

August 2024 is as different from August 1998 as heaven from earth. If someone had told us then that we would not care a damn about the crises of our Western partners, no one would have believed it. But a truly sovereign economy should be exactly that stable. Of course, we ourselves have been following this path since 2014. However, sanctions from our "partners" also helped significantly - they allowed us to jump off the ship of fools in time, which was about to hit the iceberg of the global crisis.

Yesterday, shares on Western stock exchanges rebounded, but it is too early to rejoice. The investor fear index is only growing. Everyone understands perfectly well that the attraction of unprecedented generosity, which has been going on since 2020, when trillions were poured into the economies of leading Western countries, is about to end.

The reason for "Black Monday" is said to be poor employment statistics in the US. But a much more important reason for the panic selling was the catastrophic collapse of Intel shares and the news that legendary investor Warren Buffett dumped almost half of his Apple shares and went into cash - today his investment company Berkshire Hathaway prefers to hold $277 billion in cash. This is a record - and it in itself suggests that large investors have battened down all the hatches in anticipation of the storm.

A quarter of a century ago, at the height of the dot-com crisis, Buffett was also remarkably timely in dumping Internet stocks, so his gut feeling (or his insider knowledge) cannot be trusted. Earlier this year, just before he began his massive stock sales, the famous investor warned that "when the economic shocks happen, and they will happen," his company would try to "put out the fires."

The expectation that the US will face extreme economic turbulence in the fall has long been commonplace in America . All that remains is to assign blame. Democratic media outlets claim that "a second Trump term will lead to an economic catastrophe." And Trump himself called "Black Monday" "Kamala Crash."

However, no matter who comes to the White House, Trump or Harris, or even both at once, new market collapses are inevitable. The chronology of the previous American crisis, the Great Recession of 2007-2008, shows that the Federal Reserve stubbornly raised the key rate on the eve of the crisis - that is, it acted exactly as it has recently.

Now the Fed is under pressure from business to lower the rate, but they are afraid to do so: no one can imagine what this lowering will lead to. The US has never been in such a deep economic hole in history.

The dollar is devaluing before our eyes, its weakening is being spurred on by unusually high inflation, and if the rate is lowered, the buck will become even cheaper. The unprecedentedly huge national debt requires about a trillion dollars a year just to service it - this is more than all the country's military expenditures.

The world is undergoing de-dollarization, which former Fed Chair Janet Yellen openly laments . Huge bubbles have inflated in the real estate and stock markets. They show that the amount of fictitious money in the American economy is several times, or even an order of magnitude, greater than real assets. And this imbalance can only be resolved through a major economic crisis - or through a world war, in which the extra money will simply burn up.

By the way, the situation is similar for our European partners - they are forced to drag along in Washington's train and, if necessary, fall into the financial abyss with it.

The situation on Western stock markets is exactly like the situation in Voronya Slobodka: "The house was doomed. It could not help but burn down. And indeed, at twelve o'clock at night it burst into flames, set on fire at six ends at once."

Russia, with its energy and food security, has every chance to slip past this global fire and even warm its hands on it. It is not for nothing that the Chinese comrades say that "crisis is an opportunity." One of the significant bonuses will be that the West, struggling in the grip of an economic catastrophe, will have neither the strength nor the means left for Ukraine - truly, there is no time for fat, just to survive.

https://ria.ru/20240807/apokalipsis-1964512761.html

Russians are eating a record amount of meat, 08.08.2024.

In 2023, Russians' consumption of meat and meat products set a new historical record, reaching an average of 98 kg per person. At the same time, Russian consumers began to eat less bread and sweets, according to Rosstat data.

In 2023, average consumption of meat and meat products per consumer in Russia reached 98.2 kg (a new record), which is 4.2% more than in 2022. In previous years, the growth dynamics were more modest: in 2021–2022, consumption of meat and meat products was about 94 kg per year, in 2019–2020 — 91–92 kg (growth no higher than 2% per year). Such data are presented in a new Rosstat report on food consumption in Russian households, studied by RBC.

The average consumption of meat and meat products in Russia has been steadily growing since the 2000s, and compared to the mid-1990s, the Russian consumer now eats 85% more meat, according to Rosstat data (although the data is not directly comparable due to improvements in the methodology). In 2023, a Russian consumed an average of 2.86 thousand rubles worth of meat and meat products per month — 9.7% more than in 2022. At the same time, consumer prices for meat and poultry in 2023 (December compared to December of the previous year) increased by 16% in Russia, and for meat products — by 11%. Livestock and poultry production in the country increased by 2.2% in 2023 (after growing by 3.5% in 2022), according to Rosstat data.

The data are based on a sample survey of household budgets. It covers 48.3 thousand households (quarterly), and at the end of the year, data on food consumption are compiled. When forming the results of the observation, its results are extended to all private households in the country and to the entire population living in them (excluding the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions).

Consumption is understood as the amount of food purchased during the survey period, as well as food eaten for which the household did not pay (received as a gift, as payment for work, or using products of its own production, self-preparation). Eating outside the home (in particular, in restaurants and cafes) is not taken into account. The accounting methodology has changed periodically, including in 2005 and 2021.

At the same time, in 2023, Russians increased their consumption of vegetables and melons to a record level — by 2.5% compared to 2022, to an average of 106.6 kg per person. At the same time, according to Rosstat, average prices for vegetables increased by 26% in 2023. Potato consumption also increased — by 4.5%, to almost 55 kg (despite the fact that before this, at least since 2018, annual potato consumption had been declining). Consumption of fish and fish products increased to 23 kg (from just under 22 kg a year earlier).

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/09/08/2024/66b4b9919a7947473323a075

Has anyone tried to put together in one place a list of all industries where Russia occupies a significant part of world production?

Let's see if in the near future Russia can hold the place of Europe in the supply of dairy products to China, now that they are engaging in a trade war:

Russia will conquer the whole world, by Victoria Nikiforova for RiaNovosti. 08.23.2024.

Economists have been advising Russia to get off the oil and gas needle for many years. Let's clarify the metaphor: it is rather the consumers of our hydrocarbons who are on the needle. The withdrawal syndrome is accompanied by a wild economic breakdown - for the last two years, everyone could see how Europe, led by Germany, has been writhing in convulsions.

However, dependence on hydrocarbon exports also carries some risks for Russia itself. Prices here are extremely volatile, and the Americans have recently moved to direct sabotage in the competitive struggle, such as the explosion at the Nord Streams. The very real coming recession will reduce hydrocarbon prices, and the Russian economy will have to fight this unpleasant phenomenon.

Our real task is to get consumers all over the world hooked on our other needle. This wealth is right under our noses, but we seem not to see it. Thanks to the runners from SVO - only they managed to open our eyes.

What do the fair-faced knights of Upper Lars miss most of all abroad? That's right: cottage cheese and buckwheat, the most delicious Russian cheeses and hundreds of varieties of ham. Farm milk with foam and ryazhenka with its unique aroma. Magical Russian bread - with yeast or with dough, with candied fruit or with caraway seeds, and if you wish, without yeast, without sugar and even without gluten, if it comes to that.

Luxurious butter with a classic nutty flavour. Lingonberry jam and kumquat jam, as well as apricot jam with lemons and rose petal jam.

Our ice cream is made from real milk and cream, using the classic recipe that was used to make that Soviet ice cream. You remember that urban legend - Churchill saw Muscovites eating ice cream on the street at -30 and said: "This people is invincible."

I spent two paragraphs, but I didn't even list a hundredth of the assortment of a regular farmer's market in any Russian city. It's as if we don't notice a simple and obvious fact. Our products are made according to simple, time-tested recipes, and because of this they are extremely natural, extremely healthy and at the same time amazingly cheap. From them you can easily make "diet table number one" and "table number two", "table number one hundred", and they will please both healthy and sick people, and the tiniest children.

In Western countries, a farm product implies a markup of several times, or even an order of magnitude. And nothing - they buy, take a hundred grams of jamon, cut into transparent slices, and 150 grams of Roquefort for the family, savor it little by little, stretching out the pleasure.

In eastern countries, where there is total overpopulation, they have established the production of very cheap products, but there are many questions about their quality and taste. The consumers there are afraid to eat all this and, having barely become a little rich, they start buying imported products - this is much less harmful to health.

That is, in terms of price-quality ratio, Russian food beats its competitors like Mike Tyson, except he doesn't bite off their ears. All that remains is to convey this to consumers around the world.

People can reduce their gas and oil consumption in difficult times, but they always want to drink and eat. And you can't fool the body - it gets used to the taste of a natural product and literally gets hooked on it. For example, Russians have a very hard time switching to an American menu, because everything there is stuffed with sweeteners, food additives and other chemicals. And the Chinese often do not like their own, local products, because they are afraid of the abundance of the same additives, at least the infamous glutamate.

Therefore, in parallel with oil and gas pipelines, we should lay our own product pipelines abroad. Our lemonades are much healthier and tastier than the entire line of Coca-Cola. Our cheeses are quite capable of competing with the best European varieties. Our meat products such as boiled pork, ham, and hams are generally world-class delicacies, next to which the same jamon is oversalted and over-advertised nonsense.

Oh, and let's not forget about our wine - Crimea and the south of Russia offer simply wonderful options. It's not about "going to Tula with your samovar" and trying to export our chardonnay to France. But our wine would be a hit in countries like China: in terms of "price-quality" it is much better than its South American or Australian competitors.

Yes, we have many strong competitors on this path - the USA, Brazil, and European countries. For example, we have excellent chocolate, but in terms of its export we are only in tenth place in the world: the leader of the list - Germany - sends five times more to other countries, tiny Belgium - three and a half.

Our food exports need promotion, government support, and a powerful PR campaign. This is not just frontal advertising, it should also be delicacy festivals, movies, and sponsorship of events. Here it is worth following the example of competitors, even the same Coca-Cola - the guys are simply champions in self-praise. A separate interesting task is to help individual masters sell their jams and preserves, canned goods and delicacies for export.

But the eyes are afraid, but the hands are doing: after all, once upon a time our legendary hydrocarbon export began with a single pipeline, "Druzhba". Our product pipeline will undoubtedly start working, and the world consumer will become hooked on our "tasty and healthy food" - how happy Comrade Mikoyan would be.

https://ria.ru/20240823/rossiya-1967817505.html

The unemployment rate reported by Rosstat conforms to the ILO standard. Kanada and other western cuntries report some BS number that has been historically
several times smaller. The article above does not make a distinction and compares the 3% from U-rope which is the BS "official" number. The ILO unemployment
rate for U-rope is over 6%.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Unemployment_statistics

SIMPLICIUS Ѱ
@simpatico771

The war in Ukraine is creating a new middle class in Russia. Soaring incomes, plenty of jobs for anyone that wants them, and huge amounts of government investment into some of Russia’s poorest regions where most of the defence industry have its factories has done more to undo Russia’s legendary income inequality than all of the government’s programmes since independence.

Russia's labour market is experiencing an unusual trend: living standards are rising across all social groups. Ironically, the war has been good for Russia and sanctions and a showdown with the US have made it stronger.

Real wages continue to exceed inflation rates. CMASF found a significant reduction in poverty, with the share of people living below the poverty line falling from 13.5% in 2016 to 8.5% in 2023 – significantly less than almost all EU countries.

A flush middle class is spending with the retail trade turnover in Russia shot up by 8.8% y/y during the first six months of 2024 to $299.3bln according to Rosstat.

Despite Western sanctions and hostilities in Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing significant growth and sustainable development. Vladimir Putin noted, in particular, an increase in the country's GDP by 4.6%.

In addition, the president reported growth in the manufacturing industry by 8% and foreign trade turnover by 8.8%. Unemployment is at a record low of just 2.4%. At the same time, from January to May of this year, wages increased by an average of 10%.

The leader of the Russian Federation emphasized that two thirds of revenues to the Russian budget were received from non-oil and gas sources.

At the same time, Putin believes that for the further development of positive processes, it is necessary to develop domestic digital platforms and infrastructure elements. Financial processes play an important role in this: the Central Bank was forced to increase the interest rate, but in June the volume of loans issued increased by 20%.

Analysts believe that in such a situation consumer demand will increase. At the same time, one of the main tasks of the government is to reduce inflation.

Meanwhile, an important role in continuing the positive track of development of the Russian economy is the end of the Ukrainian conflict in favor of Moscow.

Successful completion of the SVO is the main condition for the implementation of long-term development plans for Russia until 2030 – Vladimir Putin noted.

https://topcor-ru.translate.goog/50917-putin-jekonomika-rossii-prodolzhaet-rasti-vvp-uvelichilsja-na-46.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Some Clown wrote:Russia’s legendary income inequality

What utter BS.   Income inequality over the last 30 years (and obviously before) has been vastly smaller than the USA.   The USA has the worst income inequality of
any country on the planet.   That includes all the banana republics.    Russians in the poor regions were not eating garbage scraps.   Their real quality of life was
higher than regions of the USA such as Appalachia.

JohninMK post above

The GDP numbers are BS.

Russia challenges Italy's pasta power, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 08.29.2024.

Russia, as a world leader in wheat exports, is simultaneously increasing exports of processed wheat products. Supplies of Russian flour have been growing for four years now, and now it is the turn of pasta products to take off. The profitability of their exports is several times higher than the profitability of wheat exports.

Russia is the world leader in wheat exports, but in recent years it has begun to actively develop exports of processed grain products in parallel. For several years now, Russia has been increasing its flour exports, and now it has begun to increase exports of even more deeply processed products – pasta.

In the first seven months of 2024, pasta exports from Russia increased by 20% to 65 thousand tons, the federal center "Agroexport" of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation reports. Last year, exports also grew: for the whole year, they increased by 8% to 118 thousand tons. This year, the result is expected to be higher. Moreover, the trend towards growth in pasta exports from Russia is expected in the next at least six years. The Ministry of Agriculture expects Russian pasta exports to grow to 200 thousand tons by 2030.

On a global scale, Russia's position is still small. Russia currently occupies 12th place with a share of 1.5%, but we are clearly striving to take a larger share. In total, 7.8 million tons of pasta were supplied to the world last year. The world leaders in export are Italy, Turkey and China.

Russia has no equal in the world in wheat exports. We are also making great progress in flour exports. Deliveries here have been growing for four years in a row. In the first seven months of 2024, Russia supplied more than 740 thousand tons of wheat and wheat-rye flour. This is 38% more than a year earlier. Our flour is purchased by Afghanistan, China and Iraq. These are the top three importers of domestic flour.

By 2030, Russia may increase flour exports to 1.7 million tons, Agroexport calculated. Supplies can be expanded by developing new markets in neighboring countries, Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Africa.

However, the profitability of exporting processed products is higher than that of raw materials.

"Pasta is several times more expensive than the wheat used in its production. For Russia, this ratio is 2.5 times, and for leading wheat exporters - 4.4 times. This price gap is further confirmation of the growth potential of Russian exports," says Denis Ternovsky, leading researcher at the Center for Agro-Food Policy of the IPEI of the Presidential Academy.

However, the volumes of wheat and pasta exports are, of course, very incomparable. "The export of pasta is practically invisible against the background of wheat exports both in Russia and among large grain exporters. In value terms, it is 0.3% and 1.2%, and in physical terms - 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively," notes Ternovsky.

These figures, according to him, show that Russia lags behind other countries with grain resources both in the physical volume of supplies and in the price of exported products. Therefore, it is logical to expect a multiple increase in the export of pasta from Russia. In addition, the growth of pasta supplies can be facilitated by export duties on grain, since raw materials are cheaper for Russian processors than for competitors on the world market, Ternovsky adds.

Increasing the export of both flour and pasta is much more difficult than grain exports, including because these markets are very competitive, and it is difficult for new players to break through. In addition, wheat is much cheaper to transport than pasta.

However, increasing supplies of finished products, and not just raw materials, is extremely important for the country's economy as a whole. "Increasing exports of pasta contribute to the growth of non-raw material, non-energy exports. This is beneficial both for companies that increase business sustainability and gain new sales markets, and for the state, which receives growth in industrial production, a decrease in unemployment, and an increase in the share of taxes in the budget," says Anastasia Prikladova, associate professor of the International Business Department at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

However, the growth of pasta exports from Russia is beneficial not only for business and the state, but also for the Russian grain market itself. "Higher demand for wheat within Russia will expand the room for maneuver for Russian grain exporters. They will be able to redistribute commodity flows from foreign markets to domestic ones when world prices for wheat fall or the Russian government restricts exports," says Prikladova.

Currently, the largest volume of pasta from Russia is purchased by Kazakhstan, Belarus and Turkmenistan. They account for slightly more than half of all exports in physical terms. Where else can Russian pasta be sold?

"The geographic factor is important in the supply of pasta to the world market, with the exception of Italy with its history of production and brands. It is much more expensive to transport pasta than wheat, and the volume of supplies is affected by the distance between the exporter and importer, as well as the presence of common land borders. Therefore, we can expect an increase in supplies from Russian regions beyond the Urals to Asian countries, as well as from the European part of the country to the Middle East," says Ternovsky.

One of the largest producers of pasta in Russia, the company Makfa, with the support of the Russian Export Center, began cooperating with major distributors in Saudi Arabia and Iran last year.

The company's main production site is located in Chelyabinsk, which has come to be considered the pasta capital of Russia. The company's plans for 2024 include increasing exports by as much as four times.

Depending on the types of pasta, potential sales markets will also differ, Prikladova notes. For example, suppliers of pasta made from durum wheat may compete with Italian producers in the markets of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Brazil and other countries of the Middle East and Latin America. At the same time, suppliers of instant noodles may expand their business to the Asian and African regions, the expert believes.

https://vz.ru/economy/2024/8/29/1284349.html

The Russian economy is growing at a faster pace than projected, with GDP expected to soar 3.9% this year, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced on Friday.

Siluanov told TV channel Russia-24 that GDP growth in the first half of the year amounted to 4.7%, which is “a very good figure.”

“We see investments growing, at around 8%, real disposable incomes of the population are also increasing,” the minister stated.

“The estimates for the dynamics of the economy for this year are also higher than we initially included in our forecasts … Last year, the figure was 3.6%, it was high, and this year we will exceed it,” he said.

Budget revenues are growing above last year’s level, having increased by 4.7 trillion rubles ($52 billion) to date, according to Siluanov. He attributed the jump to the growth of oil and gas revenues and to income from the domestic economy.

The country’s budget deficit is expected to be at about 1.1% of GDP by the end of 2024, according to the minister.

The budget will receive around $30 billion in 2025 from changes in the tax system, which will be directed to priority tasks, he also said.

In its April forecast, the Russian Economic Development Ministry predicted growth of 2.8% for 2024. The projection is expected to be revised in early September.

The World Bank has previously raised its growth forecast for the Russian economy, saying GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 1.4% in 2025. This is an upward revision from its previous projection of 2.2% and 1.1% growth, respectively. The World Bank said that Russian economic growth has defied Western sanctions.

The International Monetary Fund said in April it expects the Russian economy to grow faster than all advanced economies in 2024.

https://www.rt.com/business/603324-russian-economic-growth-siluanov/