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    Russian Economy General News: #13

    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Sep 04, 2024 10:35 pm

    The Ministry of Economic Development reported on the slowdown of inflation in Russia, 09.04.2024.

    Ministry of Economic Development: Inflation in Russia slowed to 8.87% as of September 2.

    MOSCOW, September 4 — RIA Novosti. Inflation in Russia slowed to 8.87% year-on-year from 9.01% a week earlier, according to the Ministry of Economic Development's review "On the Current Price Situation."

    "During the period from August 27 to September 2, 2024, prices decreased (-0.02%)," the document says.

    Thus, food products became cheaper by 0.01%, in the non-food sector the price growth slowed to 0.08%. Electrical and household appliances began to become cheaper faster (-0.94%). At the same time, the growth rates of prices for medical products and construction materials amounted to 0.51% and 0.30%, respectively.

    Tourist services are becoming cheaper against the backdrop of the end of the holiday season, including a reduction in prices for domestic flights (by 8.85%) and sanatorium services (by 2.96%).

    Rosstat noted that weekly deflation in Russia is being recorded for the first time since the end of February 2023.

    As Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin emphasized at the end of August , the key rate remains the main instrument for influencing inflation, but the economy has become less sensitive to its changes. In this regard, the regulator did not rule out a sharper increase in the rate.

    The day before, the Central Bank's Research and Forecasting Department issued a bulletin noting that annual inflation likely peaked in July. Analysts point out that returning inflation to the target of four percent next year requires tighter monetary conditions than in the first half of 2024.

    https://ria.ru/20240904/inflyatsiya-1970621562.html

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    franco
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    Post  franco Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:14 pm

    Growing political and economic instability in the world forces private investors and countries to buy physical gold to reduce the vulnerability of their assets to all sorts of negative factors. Buying precious metals is one of the ways to diversify a portfolio of reserves and capital, which allows you to reduce and sometimes even completely eliminate inflation risks. Of course, it is difficult to make money on gold, but it is a guarantee that if a global collapse occurs on the stock exchanges tomorrow, you will not become a beggar.

    Currently, Russia is the leader in increasing gold reserves in state reserves on the planet. Over 10 years, the Russian Federation has increased its volumes in its storage facilities by 1,298 tons. China is in second place, having increased its reserves by 1,181 tons. Turkey is in third place, having increased its reserves by 424 tons. Other countries are lagging behind significantly.

    As for Russia's position among the largest holders of gold reserves, here too the Russian Federation is among the leaders. In first place, which is quite controversial, is the United States, which allegedly has 8,133 tons of gold. However, no one has seen this gold for many decades. Therefore, Washington asks to take its word for it as a "gentleman."

    In second place is Germany - 3,351 tons. In third place is Italy - 2,452 tons. In fourth place is France - 2,437 tons. In fifth place is Russia - 2,336 tons. In sixth place is China - 2,264 tons.

    We remind you that from 2020 to 2023, against the backdrop of rising inflation in the world, the cost of gold increased by 40%. Many experts consider investments in it very promising.

    Gold will ultimately determine the financial position of the world's countries after the collapse of the global financial system. But the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves, which it has always presented as a factor in the stability of the national currency, are a fake and a way to withdraw national income from the economy in order to "dry it up." Plus, this is a good income for selected Central Bank employees. – Russian political scientist and military expert Alexey Zhivov, author of the Dostoevsky Club project, wrote on his Telegram channel on September 4.

    https://topcor-ru.translate.goog/51254-rf-stala-liderom-desjatiletija-po-naraschivaniju-obemov-zolota-v-gosrezervah.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

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    Post  ALAMO Thu Sep 05, 2024 3:26 pm

    A must watch I guess.

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/122099

    This is how Malesian PM sees the Russian position in the world order.

    Seems that the provocation with MH17 didn't end up well ...

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Sep 06, 2024 11:55 am

    Too big.

    Telegram... not as good as it could be as usual.

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    Post  kvs Fri Sep 06, 2024 12:21 pm

    Germany's gold reserves are a hypothetical number. They kept their gold "safe" in the USA and now want it back but the USA is only trickling it
    back to them as if it really does not have it. If the USA really had 8133 tons of gold it would not be acting this way.

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    Post  franco Fri Sep 06, 2024 9:09 pm

    The Ministry of Economic Development has prepared a forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2025 and the planning period 2026-2027, as well as revised estimates for 2024. According to the ministry's data, which was reviewed by Izvestia on September 6, the dollar will cost 91.2 rubles on average in 2024, 96.5 rubles in 2025.
    At the same time, it is expected that in 2026 the US currency will trade for an average of 100 rubles, and in 2027 - 103.2 rubles.

    In addition, the ministry provided a forecast for the cost of Russian oil and Brent. Thus, it is assumed that the average price of Russian export oil in 2025 may be at the level of $69.7 per barrel, in 2026 - $ 66, in 2027 — $65.5. The cost of Brent in 2025 is projected to average around $81.7 per barrel. After that, it is expected to decrease: in 2026 - $77, in 2027 — $ 74.5.
    "By the end of the year, the exchange rate may decrease to 93-95 rubles per dollar"

    Earlier, on August 14, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told Izvestia that by mid—September, the dollar could rise to 93-94 rubles, the euro to 102-103 rubles, and the yuan to 13.2–13.5 rubles. In her opinion, until September 13 — before the date of the meeting of the Board of directors of the Bank of Russia on the key rate — the ruble may gradually become cheaper against world reserve currencies. At the same time, she clarified that the level of 85-95 rubles per dollar is quite acceptable to exporters, the budget, and the population, therefore, although fluctuations in the ruble look sharp, they do not go beyond the "optimal" corridor.

    https://iz.ru/1755143/2024-09-06/minek-sprognoziroval-v-2025-godu-srednii-kurs-dollara-na-urovne-965-rublia?main_click

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    franco
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    Post  franco Fri Sep 06, 2024 9:15 pm

    The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has prepared a forecast of the socio-economic development of the country for 2025 and the planning period 2026-2027, as well as revised estimates for 2024. Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 3.9% in 2024, according to data from the Ministry of Economic Development, which was reviewed by Izvestia on September 6. 2.8% was previously forecast.

    The Ministry also raised expectations for 2025-2027. So, in 2025, Russia's GDP will grow by 2.5%, in 2026 — by 2.6%, in 2027 — by 2.8%.

    On the eve of the Russian President Vladimir Putin at the plenary session of the IX Eastern Economic Forum said that the growth of gross domestic product by the end of 2024 could exceed last year's 3.4%. He stressed that this is the main indicator of the state of the economy. At the same time, the head of state noted the sustainability of its development.

    Prior to that, on August 30, the head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov, in an interview with the Rossiya 24 TV channel, said that Russia's GDP growth rate would reach 3.9% by the end of 2024. The minister also stressed that the Russian economy is developing at a faster pace than the authorities and experts predicted, and incomes are growing above plan this year.

    Balance of strengths: the share of developing countries in global GDP will exceed 60% by 2026. Note: 26% in 1992. The world is a changing...



    https://iz.ru/1755161/2024-09-06/minekonomrazvitiia-povysilo-prognoz-rosta-vvp-rf-v-2024-godu-do-39?main_click

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    Post  franco Fri Sep 06, 2024 9:29 pm

    In August, the overall deficit of the federal budget of the Russian Federation decreased sevenfold compared to July levels. This follows from the data published by the Ministry of Finance, which concerns preliminary figures on the execution of the federal budget for eight months of the year.

    Treasury revenues increased by 35.5%, reaching 23 trillion rubles against 17 trillion a year earlier. Expenditures also increased, but more moderately - by 22.2%. Thus, the federal budget deficit amounted to only 331 billion rubles. For comparison: in 2023, for the same period, the figure was 2.13 trillion.

    Improved financial stability was ensured by both oil and gas and non-oil and gas sources of revenue. Excise taxes on hydrocarbons and other similar charges brought in 7.55 trillion rubles over eight months. The growth was 56.2%. It seems that price ceilings and sanctions against the shadow fleet are not achieving the desired result. Budget revenues from other sources increased by 27.3% and amounted to 15.47 trillion rubles.

    The situation in Russia has noticeably improved in just one month. By the end of July, the fiscal deficit was one trillion rubles higher than it is now.

    https://topcor-ru.translate.goog/51293-deficit-bjudzheta-rf-znachitelno-sokratilsja.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

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    Post  Kiko Wed Sep 11, 2024 7:59 pm

    Rosatom signs an agreement with Bolivia for the construction of a lithium carbonate production plant, 09.11.2024.

    The Russian company Rosatom has signed an agreement with Bolivia for the construction of a lithium carbonate production plant.

    Previously, the Russian company Uranium One Group signed a contract for the development of a direct lithium extraction industrial plant in the Salar de Uyuni, in the department of Potosi (south), confirmed the president of Bolivian Lithium Deposits (YLB), Omar Alarcón, at an event in La Paz.

    "For YLB, the first contract signing for the lithium extraction plant is a satisfaction. We entered into a strategic alliance with Uranium One Group to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate," he said.

    Subsequently, the representative of Uranium One Group, Larisa Lysova, said that the agreement with YLB is strategic and that the Russian company has enough technology and experience to exploit lithium in the country.

    "Today, when Bolivia aims to multiply the national lithium industry, it is extremely important to opt for the best engineering solutions, advanced technologies and experience of reliable partners. Together we are moving towards this goal, shoulder to shoulder, structuring our long-term collaboration," Lysova said.

    The plant, which will be located in the municipality of Llipi, south of the Salar de Uyuni, in the department of Potosi (south), is expected to come into operation in the second half of 2025, according to Rosatom. It will have an annual production capacity of 14,000 metric tons, in a scalable way.

    The investment by Uranium One Group will reach 970 million dollars.

    The Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology will allow to reduce production times and the average lithium recovery is higher, by about 80%, unlike the evaporation pool technology (20%) that was used before.

    Uranium One Group is a subsidiary of Rosatom, one of the largest companies in the world, dedicated to the exploitation of minerals for the energy area.

    The signing of the contract took place within the framework of the investment agreement agreed in 2023 between YLB and Uranium One Group.

    Yandex Translate from Spanish.

    https://noticiaslatam.lat/20240911/rosatom-firma-acuerdo-con-bolivia-para-la-construccion-de-planta-de-produccion-de-carbonato-de-1157443099.html

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Sep 15, 2024 2:33 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:Military industry took a lot of qualified workers from the rest of the industry and drove salary growth higher. In any case, they had relative workforce shortage even before that. Once the war stops this wage growth will cool off and economy will slow down, as well. With it, inflation will falter and CBR will be able  to cut rates substantially.
    For the future, they either need to start a massive retraining of workforce to accommodate growing manufacturing and industrial sectors or to find a pool of qualified workforce, as Central Asian stans can't provide those.
    Main issue is where will they find those workers. I'm not sure that countries of the global South can provide much of those.

    From Russia's own foreign student population, which is at some 300-400k now and rising every year. Half of them are from other ex-Soviet countries, and the other half tend to know Russian well enough by the time they graduate, the only issue is offering them good conditions and competitive salaries. It's no tragedy if they return back to their own countries of course, but many of them have a mind on emigrating to the West anyway with their Russian education, particularly when it comes to medical professionals - and why should Russia allow the West the fruits of its own labour, in that case? Better to entice them to work in Russia instead, if said graduates plan on working abroad anyway.

    It hasn't been much reported but Putin put an accent on increasing the amount of students sent to Russia in his recent meetings with foreign leaders. For example with the president-elect of Indonesia a couple months ago. And also when Putin visited Mongolia a couple weeks ago, with the Mongolian president. This of course is no accident.

    There are a bunch of branches of Russian universities and institutes abroad too, with the greatest amount in Central Asia. Their graduates can also be offered work in Russia in those industries where there is a demand for specialists.

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    d_taddei2
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    Post  d_taddei2 Tue Sep 24, 2024 6:37 pm

    🇲🇱🇧🇫🇳🇪🇷🇺 Russia in satellite deal with West African governments

    Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have announced a deal with Russia which will see them acquire telecoms and surveillance satellites.

    The three West African countries have been combating Islamist insurgencies for years and have turned to Russia for military support.

    Ministers from the three countries met officials from Russia’s aerospace agency Roscosmos in Mali’s capital, Bamako, on Monday, to discuss the agreement.

    The technology will boost border surveillance and national security in all three countries, says Mali’s Finance Minister, Alousséni Sanou, adding that it would enable secure communications.

    Sanou also said the satellites would help them to monitor and respond to floods, droughts, fires and other emergencies.

    It is also expected to provide internet and telephone services in inaccessible and underdeveloped areas within the Sahel.

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    Post  Kiko Tue Sep 24, 2024 7:27 pm

    Russian GDP up 4.4% in 7M 2024 — PM Mishustin, 09.24.2024.

    According to the Russian Prime Minister, this is more than two times higher than last year’s level.

    MOSCOW, September 24. /TASS/. Russia’s GDP grew by 4.4% in the first seven months of this year, which is more than two times higher than last year, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a government meeting.

    "According to preliminary estimate by the Economic Development Ministry, GDP grew by 4.4% in seven months of this year, which is more than two times higher than last year’s level," he said.

    Positive dynamics was reached due to branches of the real sector, Mishustin noted. "Branches of the real sector were the main drivers. This is first of all manufacturing where output grew by 8.6% in seven months," he said.

    "Growth of capital investment closely approached 11% in the first half of the year," the prime minister said, adding that "the unemployment level has drooped to all-time lows equaling 2.4% this June."

    https://tass.com/economy/1847083

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    Post  Kiko Tue Sep 24, 2024 9:30 pm

    Reshetnikov announced a slowdown in inflation in Russia after its peak in July, 09.24.2024.

    Inflation in Russia has begun to gradually slow down after peaking in July of this year. This was stated by the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov on September 24.

    “Inflation has begun to slow down after peaking in early July,” he said during a government meeting.

    According to the minister, average annual inflation will continue to slow down by 2025, and in 2026, according to forecasts, it will be able to reach the target level.

    Earlier, on September 13, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate to 19% per annum, and this is the highest value since April 2022. According to the regulator, the increase in domestic demand significantly exceeds the ability to expand the supply of goods and services, and the growth in prices in August, adjusted for seasonality, reached 7.6% on an annualized basis.

    Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin said on August 11 that the regulator could raise the key rate to 20% or more if it still has doubts that inflation is slowing down. This process, according to the deputy head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, is happening gradually , and it will take time for the updated interest rates to affect inflation.

    https://iz.ru/1764207/2024-09-24/reshetnikov-zaiavil-o-zamedlenii-infliatcii-v-rf-posle-pika-ee-rosta-v-iiule

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    Post  Arrow Tue Sep 24, 2024 9:33 pm

    Russian GDP up 4.4% in 7M 2024 — PM Mishustin, 0 wrote:

    Impressive result for this we are talking about the most sanctioned country in the world. Almost 5% economic growth incredible.

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    Post  lyle6 Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:15 am

    How much of that in space marine 2 sales? Razz
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    Post  GarryB Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:22 am

    Not just sanctions, but also the much vaunted western soft power hammering away at it for the last few decades/centuries, trying to demonise and isolate and humiliate... and yet they are respected in all sorts of places.

    Interesting that the western powers that defeated the Soviets and their Warsaw pact allies have not been able to defeat Russia despite most of her Soviet allies and all her Warsaw Pact allies jumping ship and changing teams... almost like many of them are more burden than bonus...

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    Post  franco Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:32 pm


    Russia’s state debt is expected to grow marginally and reach 18% of gross domestic product (GDP) as the government continues to borrow funds to plug a budget gap, the finance ministry said on Tuesday.

    According to the draft budget, state borrowing will amount to 4.8 trillion rubles ($51.5 billion) next year, 5.1 trillion ($54.9 billion) in 2026, and 5.3 trillion ($57 billion) in 2027. By the end of 2027, public debt will grow to 18% of GDP from 15% of GDP in 2023, the report said.

    The overall fiscal deficit is expected to stand at 1% of GDP annually (-0.5% of GDP in 2025, -0.9% of GDP in 2026, and -1.1% of GDP in 2027), according to preliminary estimates.

    The ministry pointed out that, even with the slight increase, the national debt remains at an “economically safe” level of below 20% of GDP, placing Russia among the countries with the lowest level of state arrears.

    By comparison, the UK’s national debt recently hit 100% of the country’s annual economic output. State debt in the US exceeds 120% of GDP, while in Japan it stands at a record 260%.

    Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov emphasized that the upcoming budget will focus on social support, defense, as well as on achieving leadership in technology. He also noted that over 3 trillion rubles ($32.3 billion) annually will be allocated to provide support for Russia’s regions.

    According to economists, Russia’s public debt growth remains moderate due to a low budget deficit, as the country continues to invest in major projects and industries despite unprecedented sanctions pressure from the West.

    https://www.rt.com/business/604640-russia-state-debt-grows-slightly/

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    Post  Kiko Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:56 pm

    Putin orders preparation of plan for promotion of Russian brands, 09.25.2024.

    Putin: As many buyers as possible should know about the products of Russian enterprises.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed the government and the Russian Export Center (REC) to prepare a plan to promote Russian brands abroad. He announced his instruction on September 25 at a meeting of the State Council Presidium on the issue of export development.

    "I ask the government and the Russian Export Center to prepare a plan of joint actions on this matter. I will add that Russian goods, primarily industrial goods with high added value, should not only be recognizable, but also accessible to foreign buyers," the head of state said.

    Putin noted that in some cases, finished, including high-tech, Russian goods are known in narrow segments. At the same time, domestic enterprises are ready to produce a large range of high-quality, competitive and environmentally friendly products, the Russian leader added.

    The President pointed out the need to promote these products responsibly and professionally so that as many potential buyers as possible know about them. He called for using all channels for this, including digital ones.

    Earlier, on December 14, 2023, Putin reported during the "Year Results" that the share of Russian brands on the domestic market had grown by 30% by that time. Then he called for every possible promotion of regional brands in order to diversify the offer and make it more attractive to the consumer.

    In June last year, the head of state called for the creation of a targeted policy of the Russian Federation to promote domestic brands and emphasized that more of its own brands should appear in Russia . In September 2023, Putin also expressed confidence that Russian brands will develop at a good pace.

    https://iz.ru/1764608/2024-09-25/putin-poruchil-podgotovit-plan-prodvizheniia-rossiiskikh-brendov

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:07 pm

    d_taddei2 wrote:🇲🇱🇧🇫🇳🇪🇷🇺 Russia in satellite deal with West African governments

    Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have announced a deal with Russia which will see them acquire telecoms and surveillance satellites.



    Those 3 countries only have 3mln km2 reaa and have fast growing population and population is well aware of "friendlies of US troops international aid programmes" . This is the way to go gentlemen!

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:27 pm

    Kiko wrote:"adding that "the unemployment level has drooped to all-time lows equaling 2.4% this June."

    That is very dangerous, such levels of inflation precipitate inflation spirals as the labour market dries up and employers start to rapidly try to outbid each other for the remaining competent workers. Sounds like a good deal for the prospective employees but what ends up happening is that price inflation revs up to match the growing salaries, and some companies won't be able to afford the rapidly growing salaries and will go out of business.

    And instead of solving this Russia has been busy booting all migrants out as of late and fanning nationalism to make sure more don't come. Good going.
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    Post  Broski Thu Sep 26, 2024 3:07 pm

    flamming_python wrote:And instead of solving this Russia has been busy booting all migrants out as of late and fanning nationalism to make sure more don't come. Good going.

    If Russia needs a mass influx of migrants to make up for shortages in the labour pool, North Korea exists. The odds of them coming to Russia and committing rape, murder and terrorist attacks is significantly lower than a central stanner, and unlike the Chinese, you won't have to worry about North Koreans taking over whole swaths of Russian industries using their economic might (they have none). I bet you anything the average Russian, if forced to choose, would rather 1 million North Koreans than 1 million Turkmens and Tajiks.
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    Post  lancelot Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:52 pm

    Russia just needs to do like the Gulf countries do and make temporary work visas which do not allow those workers to settle in Russia proper. The idea that just anyone can settle in Russia by living there for a set amount of time, regardless if you have needed high-end skills or can speak the language, needs to go away. It is as simple as that.

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    Post  GarryB Fri Sep 27, 2024 8:28 am

    Part of the solution is also automation and efficiency... even in medicine where a doctor can perform surgery remotely via VR and robots and does not have to travel around the country or around the world to help people.

    Many jobs simply don't require the best of the best, and in fact an ability to turn your brain off and just do the job can be a skill in itself.

    I mean shifting 20kg bags of cement from a conveyor belt onto a pallet is hard heavy work... a robot that can do it 24/7 with only the occasional break can free up half a dozen men per belt that can do other things.

    Heavy work and dangerous work should be replaced by machinery first for obvious reasons, but there are plenty of different jobs that can be replaced or simplified so almost anyone can do them because they are no longer actually doing the work... they are monitoring a machine that is doing the work.

    Lots of very essential jobs in modern society are not highly skilled but are essential.
    higurashihougi
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    Post  higurashihougi Fri Sep 27, 2024 2:55 pm

    Actually you do need highly skilled crews in the factory to handle the machine. For example when the robot broke down and it is not that a medical surgeon can heal it, but we need a technician.

    In the advent of IT applications in medical and biology, the bioinformaticians are highly demanded, as not all biologists can make code and professional coders do not have the need for biology.

    And the jobs of the "monitoring the machines" is not always easy. For example in the emerge of AI assistant like Chat GPT or Dall-E the supervisors need a very broad knowledge of their professions, for example the Dall-E supervisor needs to understand a high diverse of art schools and a chatGPT supervisor needs to understand many type of code languages, so that they can instruct the AI to create a lot of different products to be competitive.

    Automaton and application of machines always coupled with labour shedding effect and structural unemployment, which is a tough nut to crack in the current model of profit-driven business that are inherently hostile to government coordination efforts.

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    Post  lyle6 Fri Sep 27, 2024 3:08 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    That is very dangerous, such levels of inflation precipitate inflation spirals as the labour market dries up and employers start to rapidly try to outbid each other for the remaining competent workers. Sounds like a good deal for the prospective employees but what ends up happening is that price inflation revs up to match the growing salaries, and some companies won't be able to afford the rapidly growing salaries and will go out of business.
    As they should. Their fault for not being competitive enough to remain solvent in an evolving labor market. Never mind them, others will fill their place.

    flamming_python wrote:
    And instead of solving this Russia has been busy booting all migrants out as of late and fanning nationalism to make sure more don't come. Good going.
    One just needs to look at the US and see the results of such "help". People working three jobs, just to make rent and groceries. Razz

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