Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

nomadski wrote:
Kherson is no different to other recent tactical withdrawals by Russia . The only difference is that by moving troops behind the River , then defence becomes far cheaper and easier , compared to say other places . And also Kherson is a Russian city , only if Russians allow it to be a city . I am sure now that without civilians , it can turn into a deadly ground and scorched Earth for the other side , devoid of real value . That only leaves the territory lost around the city . But since this area is on the other side of the River , then capturing and maintaining it , over long term , becomes very expensive . Much cheaper to build new Kherson on the Russian side , than defend old Kherson , on the other side .

Since the initial success of SMO , the Ukrs side did manage to gather forces and mount counter- offensives , as I predicted . But these forces were larger and better armed and motivated , than planners had initially predicted . Then the decision was made to increase forces , and this is not yet complete . Once all forces are in place and they start to fight , only then we can say how successful they were . So until this happens , we have to put up with the current situation .

I doubt very much , if Ukrs will be able to fight in the longer term . Their cities will be devoid of population and turned into refugees . The armed forces still hiding in them , can then be destroyed , without killing civilians . They can not carry on with manufacture and industry , without mains electricity , using small generators . Water and food will be in short supply . They will depend completely on outsiders and supplies . But the war they wage , will be on their turf . They will always be on the defensive , with diminishing numbers .....

NATO and the Nazis will sacrifice Ukraine for their own ends . They will not seek peace . Peace for the Nazis  is an acute disease , without a cure . And for NATO , peace is a chronic condition , ultimately leading to death . So Ukraine will be no more . It's people absorbed within EU . The western region a ruin , inhabited by a motley crew of mercenaries and die-hard Nazis , firing the odd missile into the Eastern region . And the East , will turn into a fortress , in a new frontier region .

billybatts91 wrote:Can't win a war if you keep retreating. I hope a winter counter-offensive is in the works.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1590811191710187521

dionis wrote:Russia can't resupply its troops with heavy equipment (and whatever else) one way, but it can get them back over the river the other way without leaving Ukraine with another arsenal to take over? Smells like 90% bullshit.

This shitshow is going to turn into one giant frontline from Zaporozhye to Svatove unless Russia tries something a little more daring - maybe it will once the obvious lack of manpower is fixed in a month or so.

JohninMK wrote:Andrei Medvedev writes:

   If we look at Kherson, this is the case. The units defending the city had not rested and regrouped since February. The losses in equipment in the units were very significant and they were not made up for in time. Personnel losses were compensated only with the beginning of mobilization, but at the same time it is necessary to understand that the quality of mobilization training, I will say carefully, sometimes was very poor and did not meet the standards of modern warfare. How, why, because of what, and who is guilty—this is a separate topic for conversation.

   And it is impossible to say that we, here, in TG channels, did not speak about problems with logistics of the Kherson grouping, especially after the destruction of the Antonov bridge. Or about the situation with equipment. How the 126th Brigade received pickup trucks from PMC Wagner, and why this happened, has been discussed by many of my colleagues.

   That said, all the logistical and supply problems did not affect the bravery of the fighters. The units of the 22nd Army Corps, the Rosgvardia, and the 49th Army showed an example of incredible heroism, resilience, and courage.

 

Azi wrote:
Russia has always sought recognition, influence and admiration in the European family and this will not go away overnight. The Russian elites are too western, they will certainly have difficulty accepting a loss of quality of life. You could see it in the traitors who fled before the mobilization. There are only a few, but unfortunately these few have good jobs and a relatively large amount of influence.

Putin's ideas and thoughts are good and he is a great man, but the population is not ready for a war in Ukraine. They can only be mobilized en masse if Russia is attacked on a broad front, this indirect and subliminal attack via Ukronazis goes unnoticed by most Russians. It's a hybrid war by NATO against Russia and most people are too dumb to get it. Most Russians will be happy again to buy IPhones, visit Starbucks and vacation in the EU...the rich will be cruising around in their luxury yachts and so on...Unfortunately, that is the sad truth!

RWA podcast wrote:The Russian forces on the right bank were pretty numerous, I’ve seen estimates between 20 and 30 thousand. The Kremlin is deathly afraid of casualties. They are risk-averse to a point that is actively damaging the military campaign.

I’m pretty sure that there was some kind of report from the military that there’s a 1% or 5% or 10% or 50% or whatever chance that a large Russian force could be pressed against the Dnieper with no possibility of supply, leading to encirclement & defeat

I believe that this is also the reason for a lack of serious offensives. For that, you'd have to just send people forward & accept one or another degree of large losses. The Ukrainians don't care & are ready to fight until the biological extermination of fighting-aged men.

Russian society & more importantly the Kremlin are not ready for this. Mass death of soldiers, like I've said before, is, in the eyes of the Kremlin, the biggest threat to political stability in Russia. They believe that huge casualties are worse than strategic defeats.

This is why RU forces are leaving Kherson & this is why there are currently no large-scale offensives. Add to that the risk of a UKR winter offensive reaching the outskirts of Kherson & the fact that only 1/6 of the mobilized are ready to join the war, they decided to do... this.

As for a judgement of this decision, I don't know the probability of the "nightmare scenario" happening. Having seen the Kremlin's actions before, I'd guess a very low chance would have been enough to convince them that it's better to retreat.

Considering that both Prigozhin and Kadyrov have publicly approved of this (as opposed to their reaction to the Kharkov disaster), I believe this decision was highly questionable but likely not 100% the wrong move

caveat emptor wrote:

Serberus wrote:Not hard to hold something that is not under attack.
Judging by the comments being made now by several Russian officials about willingness to negotiate, that agreement mentioned a day or so ago , or capitulation to be more precise, which included giving up Kherson and paying for restoration while keeping the meagre territories still in Russian hands, may not be so far fetched after all.
Anyway stay sane, till next time

It's interesting to see how this will impact morale of Russian army and society as well as its standing among allies.
 
Поготово ми морамо да се замислимо. Ако се овако тргује са руским земљама не желим ни да помислим како би ми прошли. Туђим курцем је лако глогиње млатити.

Azi wrote:

limb wrote:

What about offense? Where can russia attack now? And I dont mean a local attack to take a few hundred meters.

PapaDragon wrote:

No f*cking deals, none! Erase that word from dictionary

Carry on

mnztr wrote:

Resupplying under current conditions and under full attack from Ukraine are very different things. They blow the dam. Rain Himars rockets on the pontoon bridges and attack at the same time and you are in a fight for your life. If Ukraine tries to a occupy Kherson it will be at a high price.

JohninMK wrote:Andrei Medvedev writes:

   Since last night, I've been asked several dozen times:

   "What kind of a betrayal is this? What negotiations are going on and what have we exchanged Kherson for? Is this a negotiated deal? Why haven't we turned the city into a fortified stronghold? At what level have we got traitors?" And so on.

   This shows that people do not believe politicians, the military, the official statements—and let's face it, there are reasons for this lack of trust. If we are at war, we are at war, not making Istanbul deals.

   I have already written that for all of us, for people, it is not deprivation that scares us. But if it turns out to have been all in vain. That is the main horror. But that's not the case now.

   I should say that these questions show that even in the ninth month of the war people still cannot accept the reality as it is.

   If we look at Kherson, this is the case. The units defending the city had not rested and regrouped since February. The losses in equipment in the units were very significant and they were not made up for in time. Personnel losses were compensated only with the beginning of mobilization, but at the same time it is necessary to understand that the quality of mobilization training, I will say carefully, sometimes was very poor and did not meet the standards of modern warfare. How, why, because of what, and who is guilty—this is a separate topic for conversation.

   And it is impossible to say that we, here, in TG channels, did not speak about problems with logistics of the Kherson grouping, especially after the destruction of the Antonov bridge. Or about the situation with equipment. How the 126th Brigade received pickup trucks from PMC Wagner, and why this happened, has been discussed by many of my colleagues.

   That said, all the logistical and supply problems did not affect the bravery of the fighters. The units of the 22nd Army Corps, the Rosgvardia, and the 49th Army showed an example of incredible heroism, resilience, and courage.

   How did the attempted summer breakthrough to Kherson by the Ukrainian army end? They are still counting the losses. Did you know that some units destroyed enemy equipment only with the help of ATGMs? There was nothing else. But the Russian soldiers stood their ground to the death. Even now, as they were leaving their positions, they caught the Ukrainian army in firing bags a couple of times. Again, without having the right amount of equipment.

   Need I tell you further? In short, the sooner we get rid of the illusion that everything is fine with us, that we are ready for everything, the better for us. The path to victory lies through truth.

   If they had started to turn Kherson into a fortification, say, in June, it would be a different story today.

   If they had started replenishing the troops in the summer, the picture would be different now too. If only... But it is what it is. The result of mistakes and deceit.

   Surovikin was quite honest yesterday about what is going on.

   I would venture to guess how things would have ended in the case of the battle for Kherson. Ours would have held the city, perhaps for several months. At the cost of heavy casualties. Among the population as well. Among the mobilised (and are those on the home front ready for that?). In short, a mirror image of Mariupol. Further on, I don't rule out that we could see a picture of the surrender of the remnants of the garrison. Maybe not. But it looks like there was such a risk.

   About the deal.  Who made a deal with whom? At G20 we will be represented rather nominally, the USA give the Ukrainians money for the war as much as they can swallow, the position of Kiev is clear: “Russians surrender,” Europe in general does what Washington says and prepares for the blackouts in winter.

   It was a hard day yesterday. But this is the stage of a long journey.  There are years of confrontation ahead. There will be losses and victories.

   But what have we decided? Are we giving up yet? Do we run on the last scooter to Tbilisi and Alma-Ata?

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19536

   If we stay, maybe we should stop reflecting and worrying? Can we start working? Let's help the front further, since we are not giving up.

   To win, we must first abandon our pride and stop thinking that we are doing just fine. We must learn to recognize reality and cast aside unnecessary illusions. We must get in the mood for a long, hard day's work. The state, too, must change. To win, we have to change the economy, destroy the bureaucracy. And yes, name the culprits and punish them.

   Yesterday we left a Russian city behind. That hurt. The more painful the lesson, the faster the learning. Has everyone realised how serious everything is and that there's nowhere to retreat?

   Victory won't come easy. But there are no options other than to win.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19537

Azi wrote:Twitter RWA podcast

RWA podcast wrote:The Russian forces on the right bank were pretty numerous, I’ve seen estimates between 20 and 30 thousand. The Kremlin is deathly afraid of casualties. They are risk-averse to a point that is actively damaging the military campaign.

I’m pretty sure that there was some kind of report from the military that there’s a 1% or 5% or 10% or 50% or whatever chance that a large Russian force could be pressed against the Dnieper with no possibility of supply, leading to encirclement & defeat

I believe that this is also the reason for a lack of serious offensives. For that, you'd have to just send people forward & accept one or another degree of large losses. The Ukrainians don't care & are ready to fight until the biological extermination of fighting-aged men.

Russian society & more importantly the Kremlin are not ready for this. Mass death of soldiers, like I've said before, is, in the eyes of the Kremlin, the biggest threat to political stability in Russia. They believe that huge casualties are worse than strategic defeats.

This is why RU forces are leaving Kherson & this is why there are currently no large-scale offensives. Add to that the risk of a UKR winter offensive reaching the outskirts of Kherson & the fact that only 1/6 of the mobilized are ready to join the war, they decided to do... this.

As for a judgement of this decision, I don't know the probability of the "nightmare scenario" happening. Having seen the Kremlin's actions before, I'd guess a very low chance would have been enough to convince them that it's better to retreat.

Considering that both Prigozhin and Kadyrov have publicly approved of this (as opposed to their reaction to the Kharkov disaster), I believe this decision was highly questionable but likely not 100% the wrong move

This is absolute corecct! That's the reason for EVERYTHING we have seen thus so far!

That is the reason for missing deep strikes with air force!

That is the reason for no amphibic operations with the black sea fleet against Odessa at the beinning of the war!

That is the reason for not defending cities like Liman or Kupiansk against Ukronazis...cities are normally wonderful to defend but with losses!

The Kremlin want to wage a war but won't pay the costs. The currency in every war is blood and the costs in every war is blood for territory!

And that is the reason why we will see more likely a peace deal or a truce and frozen conflict than a offensive next year. The reason for the retreats are not the generals...they doing just their job, the reason lies in the Kremlin. The generals in Russia are professionals and know what they're doing, but they're not given a free hand.

Thank God Putin isn't Zelenskiy and he doesn't throw soldiers into the meat grinder, but he risks NOTHING.

ALAMO wrote:Well, you said a thing and deny it it the same line  
And I agree
The point is that Russkie do want a long&prolonged war now.
They didn't want it back in the Spring.
Russkie wanted a regime change operation based on a rapid advance, claiming lots of ground, sending a message, and expecting regime collapse&bend for negotiations.
Didn't happen.
Due to tons of reasons, nazification level is one of them.
The secret police's role is indisputable.
NATO direct influence, the fact that Anglosaxons de facto rule&command the remaining rotting body of the Ukropistan plays the role either ...
Ethnic cleansing made 2014+ is a factor too.
Now things turned. Not even "now", a few months back.
Now it is a meat grinder.
Ukro meat is to be grinded, with the available NATO stocks along.

dionis wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Resupplying under current conditions and under full attack from Ukraine are very different things. They blow the dam. Rain Himars rockets on the pontoon bridges and attack at the same time and you are in a fight for your life. If Ukraine tries to a occupy Kherson it will be at a high price.

They have no ability to blow the dam beyond an on-the-spot explosive rigging operation. That would mean completely overwhelming all Russian forces at BOTH banks of the dam, with the left bank being an impossibility.

Manpower wins wars - sweat and blood. Not fancy toys. Ukraine is showing this now. The USSR showed this in the GPW. If Russia couldn't ferry or airlift over thousands of the mobilized men over a river over last 2 weeks and/or the next 8 weeks, then we deserve the worst outcome in this war. Odessa looks like a dream now.

Regular wrote:No need to worry much about T-90. Ukrainians have captured T-90s near Kharkov.

Regular wrote:
It’s  just a mediocre and flawed tank that is about to be replaced by brand new modern and up to date T-14, nothing NATO doesn’t know about oldie already. Technically speaking, on paper, Oplot is better tank than any T-72 derivative apart from T-90AM. And thanks to lazy TCs, Ukrs have more functioning T-90s than Oplots. Means nothing in the bigger picture

flamming_python wrote:

And who is negotiating with the USA? Russian officials just stated the other day that they require negotiations directly with the Ukraine, not with the USA over the Ukraine.

[

Maybe making the enemy think it is a trap is the trap, so when they don't fall for the trap and do not attack then they fall for the trap and hold their positions till Russia is ready to move when the ground gets hard.

They explained their logic and it makes sense... whether you like it or not.

mnztr wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

And who is negotiating with the USA? Russian officials just stated the other day that they require negotiations directly with the Ukraine, not with the USA over the Ukraine.

[

Everyone knows this is horseshit. Even before the war they were talking directly with the US. Not even with the EU or NATO.  They were making progress with Ukraine and the US kyboshed it. So pointless taking to anyone else other then the USA.