Russian special military operation in Ukraine #33

Does anybody know if Russia actually attacked the facilities of the 2 Ukrainian NPPs, or were the forced to shutdown because of damage to the grid further away?

Building was sucessfully intercepted by NASAM

Erk wrote:Does anybody know if Russia actually attacked the facilities of the 2 Ukrainian NPPs, or were the forced to shutdown because of damage to the grid further away?

Connections to the grid were attacked. Contrary to western believe Russians don´t bomb NPPs.

JohninMK wrote:...   Due to attacks, water supplies are suspended throughout Kiev - Klitschko...

Now we're cooking  

Two things they learned in this operation is that they needed a very long range missile on their sukhois and that r-77-1 lacks range.

It pushed them to integrate r-37M as a standard weapon even for patrols which probably obliged them to increase its production. And we can be sure they spend a lot more effort into speeding up r-77M development to replace r-77-1 on production lines totally. I'm pretty sure sime of those air to air kills were done with the r-77M.

Apparently Russia knocked out 100% of the energy grid.

Apparently Russia knocked out 100% of the energy grid.

Why are they doing this?
I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet.

Back from my break and still no major offensive which some were insisting would start about two weeks ago now, nor does it look like there will be one.
Also no attacks on Dnieper crossings to cut supply lines,  so the logical conclusion would be that they are trying to force Kiev to the negotiating table through degradation of infrastructure as they failed to do so on the battlefield.

Well like the previous article hinted at, could be a form of blackmail in order to strong-arm negotiations out of the Ukraine, with the EU pressuring the Ukraine towards doing so

Although I don't see why Moscow is convinced it will work.

Depopulation is probably not an objective in of itself, unless Russia is really preparing for some mega offensive and the taking of multiple cities

But it should be kept in mind that power will always be redistributed to military and state needs first and foremost. Which means electric trains will be kept running and other infrastructure used by the military, unless you really do take out 100% of the power.
Hospitals, police stations, fire stations should have their own back-up generators. Albeit this can't be generalized for every clinic and so on.
Regardless with the power out, there goes out water filtration, water pumping, the sanitation system, and probably a lot of the gas heating system - so it's definitely a humanitarian catastrophe in the making. A lot of civilians are going to die over the winter if this keeps up, especially the elderly who have nowhere else to go anyway.

Serberus: For someone who doesn't like assumptions made you sure make an awful lot of assumptions.

Edit: added who I was communicating with.

Also no attacks on Dnieper crossings to cut supply lines, so the logical conclusion would be that they are trying to force Kiev to the negotiating table through degradation of infrastructure as they failed to do so on the battlefield.

Russia is digging in along the Dniepr for a protracted conflict, for now though it's probably in Russia's interests to keep the Ukraine's supply lines as long as possible, and to encourage them to go to the Donbass if anything

It should be assumed NATO is only going to get further involved, to whatever degree. The British are already promising some Sea Kings or whatever they are, and presumably the pilots to go with them. Lots of rumours about the Poles sending people.

It could well be Russia trying to force Kiev to negotiations, but more like a last-ditch effort at that. Because if it fails then it will have to be decided all on the battlefield indeed.

Three Seakings with one apparently already in Ukraine. Goodness only knows how they will keep them flying.

"Why are they doing this?
I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet."

Why are they doing this? Well, part of it is to create a refugee crisis. The Ukrainians have demonstrated to be very bad house guests whenever they've went to Europe and so having to spend tax dollars on them means that its difficult to keep social welfare programs and military spending going. So yeah, that is part of it. Another factor is to punish the EU. In a typical Bloomberg article with all the usual dishonest claims of Russia bombing maternity hospitals (every time that Russia does something that makes Ukraine howl it will be accused of hitting a maternity hospital, a school, a playground, etc) one can parse trhough and see the key points:


"Ukraine Blackouts Threaten Pipeline Bringing Gas to Europe

Russia Knocks Out the Power Keeping Millions of Ukrainians Warm

IMF Reaches Deal With Ukraine, Paving Way for Billions in Aid

Pro-Russia Group Claims Cyberattack on European Parliament

Russia’s Big Crude Oil Pipeline Via Ukraine Is Partly Halted

EU Set to Soften Russian Oil Price Cap Plan Before Approval"

for more on this and a whole lot of emotionally driven propagandistic drivel from bloomberg read here

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-latest-ukraine-enacts-emergency-144747521.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

However, pay very close attention to that top point. Ukrainian blackouts threaten gas to Europe. These strikes cripple Ukraine's military, they also put the screws on the EU. The EU had really really really hoped to Use Ukrainian energy and gas to help it keep up its suicidal sanctions against Russia. The ongoing "energy terrorism" is really tightening the screws on the EU cabal and making them howl.

As others have posted, driving refugees from Ukraine means less people the Russian army has to fight. It also means people lose faith in the regime. I am all but certain Ukrainian oligarchs and political elites either have heat and electricity in their palaces and mansions in Ukraine or are on their yachts and winter homes in the South of France, Florida, and the Caribbean where energy means nothing. The average Ukrainian? He might be fed a line of bull*** from his media but he can see that while his hovel has no electricity or heat or water, his oligarchs do. He has to wait hours in line for gas and may not get any. His ATMs do not have money, his electricity is shot to hell as Ukraine returns to the 19th century.

As for winter offensive, again its not even winter yet and Russia never said it would occupy Ukrainian territory. Its very cynical, cruel even (but as Sherman said "war is hell"), but if Ukraine is rendered uninhabitable and people flee then its a lot of empty real estate and not a country so lets say it joins NATO. Well, that's nice and all, but if there's nobody there to join and there is no infrastructure, and there is nobody in Ukraine to join a NATO army then its effectively demilitarized and made neutral. Russia does not have to fire one solitary shell or take one more step of land (apart from ideally finishing the job in Donetsk, taking the rest of Zaprozhiye, Kherson, and taking Odessa and ideally destroying all Ukrainian infrastructure east of the Dniepr) to win this war.

GaryB wrote:

It is pretty clear that Russia has realised that if the Ukrainian people don't suffer in this conflict then they will have no reason to even consider surrender and that is how this conflict will end... when factions in the Ukraine decide enough is enough... why are we fighting this proxy war for the US to sell gas to the EU?

That's what I thought, Russia is working on a multi part strategy to stop the EU sending man and machine to help the NATO proxy war.

By creating a refugee crisis, it drains the EU economy, combined with the self-inflicted sanctions of Russian energy products, it might just work in Russia's favor.

The way it was going, the Ukrainian people who are not conscripts, were living pretty much as normal, the war was just a news story on the TV.
But since the Ukrainian attack on the Crimea bridge, the war has come to touch every Ukrainian.

Perhaps allowing the Maidan coup in 2014, was not such a good idea after all.

Erk wrote:Why are they doing this?
I understand taking out specific targets such as the electric trains which transport the Ukrainian military, but I don't understand a blanket blackout.

Is it to drive the citizens out of Ukraine as refugees?

I don't see the point, unless it's supporting a military push, which there doesn't seem to be yet.

Ukraine is a Nazi state and it's citizens are supporters, instigators, enablers and perpetrators of Nazi ideology and war crimes

That's all the reason you need

@ TMA1
My conclusion was logical based on what has been going on lately and more importantly, just my opinion.

Also my fairly short post  literally included two factual statements (no major offensive and  dnieper crossings in tact) so you’re reaching hard to find something to cry about.  I can’t remember, was it you who predicted the great phantom offensive starting by mid Nov, that why you got triggered?

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - --
@GeromanAT
I did not make those arrows...



Does this come?

Felt free, found one after about 5 second of searching , posted on 31 Oct (see below) claiming offensive in fortnight,  so mid Nov
Confirms what i wrote earlier. Maybe learn to navigate your own forum before accusing people of making shit up.

Cheers mate.

Mon 31 Oct 2022, 09:07
by ucmvulcan
I will be revisiting this post as soon as the Soil in Ukraine hardens enough to allow for a winter offensive (approximately a fortnight).

No, I admit my estimation was incorrect. It was not meant as an insult, or maybe it was I can't remember and if it was well insulting people you don't know is frankly stupid so if there was insult intended on my part, please accept my apology. My take is this. There will probably a winter offensive as I cannot imagine why Russia would be almost daily denigrating infrastructure targets, bringing up and training over 300,000 new troops, and putting someone like Surovikin in charge of operations in Ukraine if there wasn't going to be an offensive. So I will qualify my remarks by saying I conjecture that there will be some sort of offensive this winter, but there may not be. Who knows, I don't have access to the minutes, operational orders, and briefings of the Russian high command. I only know what Putin says. At the start of this he said he had no territorial aims (and that explains why Russia has not really dug in and fought for any territory it took. So maybe those forces are just to dig in and protect the few territories he brought into union with Russia. Or, maybe there will be an offensive. I admit, I DON'T KNOW. Here's the thing though -and do not take this as an insult - neither do you. Cheers.

Not sure if posted yet. Medvedev tour of Russian missile factory:

SERBERUS, even though you are my countryman, you are really pathetic.
I thought there was salvation for you, but I see that there is not.
And what would you like, cities where a solid percentage of the population does not want to live in Russia, under Russia or with Russia ?
The Russians are JUST DOING WHAT THEY ARE DOING, that is destroying the energy and industrial sectors of Ukraine.
How long would YOU, hero, last without work, without electricity, without water ?
Do you think Ukroshitstans can do this forever ?

A good part of you on the forum only have cities in your head, while the Russian plan is (probably) what AMXXXL once wrote - those who don't like it must leave. What will happen to Lvov, Ternopol and Ivano-Frankovsk in the future and after the end of the conflict, I don't think it worries the Russians much, but I am convinced that they will not allow the NATO pact to go beyond the mentioned cities.
Only what Stalin annexed, Russia does not need at all, because it is an ulcer that needs to be removed.

I have already written several times and I will write again that about half (if not half then at least 30%) of the inhabitants of Kharkov, Odessa and Nikolaev, Zaporozhye will not want to live with Russia or under Russia.
Therefore, Kharkov would perhaps have less than 500,000 inhabitants in the future instead of one million, Odessa less than 500,000, while Nikolaev would fall even lower in percentage. Zaporozhye is already reported to have been abandoned by 40% of the population.
And since I am of the opinion that no one needs a half-empty city (the development of the city is not sustainable), I also think that the territories are not a priority either. I have never even heard a high-ranking Russian official write about Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaev, etc.
Such stories are here on the forum and on Telegram.
I am of the opinion that the Russians will not go in the direction of Odessa, but I am still not sure about Kharkov.
Odessa has a small percentage of Russians, and I would not include those who declare themselves Ukroshitstans into Russia.