Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

Ukraine isn't full of troops. Most of their army, soldiers abd equipement, is on the front, once you crush the front there won't be that much resistance behind it. They will just roll over the countryside and encircle the cities.

Your numbers frankly speaking aren't even accurate and are built of mere assumptions that you agree with, so before you say I cannot do math. Get your numbers right

You are too illiterate to even understand what is being told to you.  
I have instructed you twice already with all the numbers, calculated MUCH in Ukro favor actually, but it doesn't help you in getting a point.
The thing is getting ridiculous, as there must be some mental issue behind  

But again, for those who might have missed the numbers.

43 mln pre-2014, yet it is just a rush calculation based on the existing data that didn't consider the millions of Ukrainians already working abroad being counted either.
Those were mostly productive age male population.

Now we turn the higher gear.

Minus Crimea 2.5 mln

Minus LDNR calculated at approx. 7 mln

Some f them are reported to migrate to Ukraine or other places (including Russia), but the number is not higher than some 1.5mln. So no matter how we count that, we talk 8.5mln population gone.

Here is statistical survey for the Ukrainian migration made official by the Polish National Bank.





We can clearly see the difference in the structure.

In sole 2014, Polish business requested 370k job permits for Ukrainians, and in 2015 - 760k. We talk JOB PERMITS only. And they were coming at the same rate in the following years...

This data structure will be much same for any immigration country, that is Hungary, Germany OR Russia, being the biggest destination for Ukrainan refugees.

In total, the number of Ulrainians who left before 24Feb22 is calculated at approx. 7 mln.

Some sources give a higher number.

After 24Feb22, newly incorporated territories brought at least another 2.5 mln depopulation for the Ukrostate.

And NEW wave of refugees.
ONLY IN EUROPE 8 MILLION new refugees have been registered. Some get back indeed. But some left after that.
The number for Russia and Belarus is 2.9 MLN more.

It is not a fukin rocket science, but UNHCR official data.

https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

The overall picture leaves a wasteland where are hardly ANY Ukrainians left, as we talk 43 - 8,5 - 7,0 - 2,5 - 8 - 2,9...

Dude, that makes LESS THAN 15 MLN people "left".

The data is so incredible, that I feel an issue to believe in it - the cause is that some Ukrainians did return.
But it does not change the situation much.
It is a shadow of the state that existed pre-2014, and I can't even find a word to describe what is it if we consider the 1993 peak of 53!!! MLN Ukrainians left after the "genocide the Russkie unleashed on them in the Soviet Union".

The Soviet Union mass mobilisation of 1942 brought 6% of the population. SIX. In a country where average age was 15+ years lower, and the average family size was DOUBLE to today's standard.

No way yo will get the point if explained for the third time, but the others surely will.

Reaching Dnepr at all flow would be much helpful in that

Some 500-700k a month in one factory only

This Doneck based one is cited to have 300k a month.

And both are a fraction of places where Russkie can produce ammo NOW.

Not "in two years".

@Firebird

Even if NATzO is trying to bait Russia into Poland and whatnot, it is going to fail. Russia has no interest in pacifying former Warsaw Pact
lunatic states. Let Washington wipe their dirty asses.

It looks like the cunning plan for NATzO is to move into western Ukraine using Polish forces, with some support. The US is sending 700
Abrams tanks to Poland and I agree with The Duran analysis that it is possible that all the Leopard prattle is for a NATzO force and not
for the Kiev regime army in the east. So we are looking at around 1000 tanks which is substantial for a NATzO force with trained operators
and other necessary resources.

So I believe that there will be a rush for Odessa at some stage in the first half of this year. NATzO does not want Russia to cut off rump
Ukria from the Black Sea. It does not want Russia to reconnect with Transnistria and become a Danube Treaty state.

It is now apparent that NATzO has written off Elensky's regime and is staging the purge to have a government that accepts partition.
Elensky's regime was delusional about keep all of Lenin's and Khruschev's gifted territory.

zorobabel wrote:

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1617939704854507523?s=20&t=DRDSQPNgYTLnrmzJHXbDVA

lol

Didn't take long. Cucks will be cucks I guess

Unlikely Putin would have done so by now otherwise, but an unwillingness to deploy more troops in large numbers does suggest, Russia had no plans to take all of Ukraine which would be a massive mistake but hey, that's their call.

With their current numbers they will not be able to reach Odessa for example and if you fail to take Odessa then you wasted a golden opportunity you will not get a second chance at and it would be a massive mistake

Why would he have done so by now?

The previous mobilization was carried out from the end of September.
If we assume that those mobilized men won't be kept for more than half a year give or take (which is a somewhat generous assumption I will admit, but fits in with the MoDs 6-month contracts and the Wagner duration of service for convict volunteers too), then the next wave of mobilization will be on track to take place next month, if we assume that mobilized men will have to refreshed and trained for at least a month before replacing the ones going home (and most will have to be trained for longer).

That's pretty much what I assumed will happen all along
The only point against this is that Putin about a month ago cast cold water on the idea of extra mobilizations.

In which I'm guessing that the plan is to finish this war within the next few months. Maybe agreeing to split the Ukraine with NATO.
This fits into all these rumours of a Russian grand offensive, and with what's going on now in Zelensky's government - with all these resignations and cloak & dagger maneuvering.

But equally it may be that Putin simply hoped that NATO won't escalate again, but now that it's making clear that it will, he will order more mobilization waves as needed.
I don't see total mobilization taking place though. Because the Russian govt. is mindful of the home front and the need for a functioning civilian economy and stabilization of living standards, batting price inflation of goods, etc...
If the home front and economy holds, Russia can outlast NATO involvement or willingness for involvement in this war.

Who said it was sound foreign policy. 8 trillion IS a joke when you are spending other peoples money to enrich your MIC. Don't you get it? Its OUR money they are spending. They could afford to lose in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria AND Ukraine. Its not existential to them. Are they fucking themselves in the longer run? Very likely. They have never been ones to think to far ahead as the extent of their strategic thinking is one presidential term. They are like a heavily armed child. I don't mind and evolution in the global order, but a US collapse may be bad for everyone so be careful what you wish for. I would prefer a gradual evolution where others rise up and the US becomes more insular and of course the death of the Neocons and "American exceptionalism" would be a breath of fresh air. Chaos is bad for everyone.

I think everyone would have preferred an evolution of America, and an evolution in the global order, and everyone with a clue had high hopes for Trump to make it happen.
But that's not what happened. Trump is the Gorbachev that was put in house arrest and then removed from office by the hardliners in 1991. While this war is one they did everything to engineer themselves, and once it broke out, put absolutely everything on the line for it. And so this is where and how they will be defeated, and it won't be pretty. Whether the US itself literally collapses as a country like the USSR did though - I doubt it.

Just a reminder. Putin called for the partion of Ukr multiple times. He sees no point on taking the western part.

So that's roughly 20 leo 2 and 20 Abrams. So much drama for that ?

Just a reminder. Putin called for the partion of Ukr multiple times. He sees no point on taking the western part.

He may have hinted at it or called for it, but there is no guarantee that this is what he'll get.

Why, in fact, would Poland want some Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk and the rest of these places as part of Poland? To have more Ukrainian nationalists within its borders?

If NATO sends an expeditionary force to West Ukraine, then I can only imagine that they are going for a very temporary armistice at most, to arm up and train a new Ukrainian army, that will be sent on the offensive yet again.
This is why the massive shipment amount of hardware that has been announced, even transferring active-duty NATO equipment. It's an emergency measure, meant to re-equip the Ukrainians as quickly as possible while securing a buffer-zone that Russia can't cross into, but that possibly where missiles and aircraft can fly out from against it, and on the background of all this NATO defense industries will re-equipping their own armies.

And this is also why the US, Poland are preparing allegedly, to enter with their own forces - to ward off Russia spoiling these plans. If there was a plan for the permanent partition of the Ukraine with tacit acquiescence by both sides, then all these measures will not be necessary, nor the resistance of Germany's political and military class over sending its Leo 2s, nor Milley's recent provocative statements about the need to militarily defeat Russia, and so on.
Then there is the issue of Romania preparing to participate in these plans too. Romania is not next to Western Ukraine, it's next to Odessa. Allowing NATO to take Odessa means the encirclement of Pridnestrovie and the Russian garrison there. Also unacceptable.

Russia would have to be incredibly foolish to run this risk and allow these plans to be implemented, not unless NATO is very transparent with it and provides it all necessary guarantees that it's ready to freeze the conflict for good. Russia for sure doesn't need Western Ukraine, but it needs even less for it to be used a place d'armes against it.
I hope Putin has not been sliding back into wishful thinking, when he said that no more mobilization is needed.