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75 posters
Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
ALAMO- Posts : 7526
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Dr.Snufflebug- Posts : 1131
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- Post n°952
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
Dr.Snufflebug Mon Feb 06, 2023 1:59 pm
All road connections (supplies, reinforcements, evacuations) to/from Bakhmut/Artemovsk appear to be under Wagner fire control now. They simultaneously closed the remaining northern and western supply roads now.
So the city is effectively encircled. Of course, UA could try to fight its way through one last time, but heavy losses are guaranteed. Or they could try to sneak out on foot cross-country, which I suspect they will.
Or dig in and hope for a Mariupol scenario. But unlike Russian regular forces, Wagner doesn't bother with endless negotiations, the Pope, Hollywood celebs and stuff, as we saw in Soledar. They deliver ultimatums and act accordingly.
edit: Zelensky is apparently going to Brussels to beg.
So the city is effectively encircled. Of course, UA could try to fight its way through one last time, but heavy losses are guaranteed. Or they could try to sneak out on foot cross-country, which I suspect they will.
Or dig in and hope for a Mariupol scenario. But unlike Russian regular forces, Wagner doesn't bother with endless negotiations, the Pope, Hollywood celebs and stuff, as we saw in Soledar. They deliver ultimatums and act accordingly.
edit: Zelensky is apparently going to Brussels to beg.
Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:10 pm; edited 2 times in total
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thegopnik- Posts : 1831
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I think poles are going to be happy to be a part of Russia. Are any polish users here happy about it?
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Firebird- Posts : 1811
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Then Russia can declare Syria part of the Ru Fed. Then nuke Washington?
Infact there are 100s of unwanted US/GATO bases worldwide.
Russia could come up with any number of "explanations" for a "mystery attack" on them.
Or it could get Mary Poppins to send a balloon over the US with a late Xmas present.
Infact there are 100s of unwanted US/GATO bases worldwide.
Russia could come up with any number of "explanations" for a "mystery attack" on them.
Or it could get Mary Poppins to send a balloon over the US with a late Xmas present.
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billybatts91- Posts : 707
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- Post n°955
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
billybatts91 Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:49 pm
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thegopnik- Posts : 1831
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franco
franco- Posts : 7059
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Chaos within:
Media reports conflict in the Ukrainian government over possible reorganization of the Ministry of Defense, 02.06.2023.
Read from other sources that the UK wasn't happy also with Aleksei Reznikov leaving. Apparently consider him one of their people.
Media reports conflict in the Ukrainian government over possible reorganization of the Ministry of Defense, 02.06.2023.
Read from other sources that the UK wasn't happy also with Aleksei Reznikov leaving. Apparently consider him one of their people.
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littlerabbit- Posts : 237
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- Post n°958
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
littlerabbit Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:27 pm
Very interesting video. If this is true, the Liman front is falling appart.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tretter50001/status/1622696981834629120
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JohninMK- Posts : 15658
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From MoA
Slavyangrad Telegram Channel comments on WarTears estimate of Ukie losses...
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32323
Ukrainian casualties range from 0.96 million to 1.8 million, according to Mossad, US Command, Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam), New York Times (@nytimes)
> Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Ukrainian Tactics
> Moscow Kiev is sending poorly trained recruits, including convicts, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine to pave the way for more seasoned fighters, U.S. and allied officials say. - NYT*
Let's go into detail. Three and a half months ago, we published our mathematical model (https://wartears.org/en/posts/math-model/), to show how we estimate the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. All this time (and even before: the idea of such an estimation came to us back in June, shortly after the launch of the project), we were very curious about other estimation methods. To our disappointment, there weren't any.
And finally, a few days ago, CIT posted an article (https://notes.citeam.org/en-dispatch-feb-3-4), referring to another one by the New York Times, where they estimated the losses of Russian troops. Finally, we saw at least some method of calculating the casualties to put our hands on!
Yesterday, it turned out that our estimate of the number of people killed was confirmed by Mossad (https://t.me/wartearsorg/160), and, indirectly, by a retired US colonel (https://t.me/rybar/43319). We were curious as to what would happen if we were to plug our data and estimates of Ukrainian losses into the @CITeam methodology and estimate Ukrainian losses this way.
Here's what happened:
1. The number of dead - 180 thousand - we took from our estimate, which has already coincided with statements of officials and experts several times with good accuracy.
2. Next (quote from CIT) "we cautiously assume that the number of missing people can be from a third of those buried to an equal number," and so we get the number of missing people: - from 60 to 180 thousand KIA.
3. That is, the total number of dead and missing Ukrainian military personnel is from 240 to 360 thousand.
4. (CIT again) "To count the wounded, we use ratios from 1:3 to 1:4 to the dead," which gives us from 720 to 1,440 thousand wounded.
5. (And once again, CIT) "Thus, we estimate the losses of" the Ukrainian military to be between 960 and 1,800 thousand people.
Conclusion: According to the data from MOSSAD and the methodologies of CIT and the NYT, Ukraine has lost from 3 to 6% of its total population.
* Yes, we somewhat loosely tweaked the original title to match the data.
This is just a "half-joking" exercise, but we are hoping to soon deliver a proper detailed analysis and explanation on why such methodology should not be used. We want to seriously explain why such methods are flawed and what exactly their significant shortcomings are.
Tremendous Losses!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 6 2023 20:29 utc | 75
Slavyangrad Telegram Channel comments on WarTears estimate of Ukie losses...
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32323
Ukrainian casualties range from 0.96 million to 1.8 million, according to Mossad, US Command, Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam), New York Times (@nytimes)
> Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Ukrainian Tactics
> Moscow Kiev is sending poorly trained recruits, including convicts, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine to pave the way for more seasoned fighters, U.S. and allied officials say. - NYT*
Let's go into detail. Three and a half months ago, we published our mathematical model (https://wartears.org/en/posts/math-model/), to show how we estimate the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. All this time (and even before: the idea of such an estimation came to us back in June, shortly after the launch of the project), we were very curious about other estimation methods. To our disappointment, there weren't any.
And finally, a few days ago, CIT posted an article (https://notes.citeam.org/en-dispatch-feb-3-4), referring to another one by the New York Times, where they estimated the losses of Russian troops. Finally, we saw at least some method of calculating the casualties to put our hands on!
Yesterday, it turned out that our estimate of the number of people killed was confirmed by Mossad (https://t.me/wartearsorg/160), and, indirectly, by a retired US colonel (https://t.me/rybar/43319). We were curious as to what would happen if we were to plug our data and estimates of Ukrainian losses into the @CITeam methodology and estimate Ukrainian losses this way.
Here's what happened:
1. The number of dead - 180 thousand - we took from our estimate, which has already coincided with statements of officials and experts several times with good accuracy.
2. Next (quote from CIT) "we cautiously assume that the number of missing people can be from a third of those buried to an equal number," and so we get the number of missing people: - from 60 to 180 thousand KIA.
3. That is, the total number of dead and missing Ukrainian military personnel is from 240 to 360 thousand.
4. (CIT again) "To count the wounded, we use ratios from 1:3 to 1:4 to the dead," which gives us from 720 to 1,440 thousand wounded.
5. (And once again, CIT) "Thus, we estimate the losses of" the Ukrainian military to be between 960 and 1,800 thousand people.
Conclusion: According to the data from MOSSAD and the methodologies of CIT and the NYT, Ukraine has lost from 3 to 6% of its total population.
* Yes, we somewhat loosely tweaked the original title to match the data.
This is just a "half-joking" exercise, but we are hoping to soon deliver a proper detailed analysis and explanation on why such methodology should not be used. We want to seriously explain why such methods are flawed and what exactly their significant shortcomings are.
Tremendous Losses!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Feb 6 2023 20:29 utc | 75
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Airbornewolf- Posts : 1524
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- Post n°960
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
Airbornewolf Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:33 pm
RF Marine T-80BV uses ATGM's to destroy 2 ukrainian IFV's
RF troops in Marinka
LPR ghost unit drone bombs ukrainian trench
RF T-90Ms battling near Novoselovsky, LPR
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billybatts91- Posts : 707
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- Post n°961
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
billybatts91 Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:20 am
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ALAMO- Posts : 7526
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Only in Russian, so ...
https://t.me/SIL0VIKI/61526
The mental/physical condition of Ukrowehrmacht.
Troopers deny occupying positions, claiming that they have fought enough already.
No support, no reinforcements.
They are hungry, with frostbites.
So tired that they can't even crawl to the position.
Asking questions if there is anyone else left in the battalion, and the answer is no.
All fresh mobilized thrown to the positions are already dead.
The final is some officers left who are getting ready to go further only, as nobody else will.
https://t.me/SIL0VIKI/61526
The mental/physical condition of Ukrowehrmacht.
Troopers deny occupying positions, claiming that they have fought enough already.
No support, no reinforcements.
They are hungry, with frostbites.
So tired that they can't even crawl to the position.
Asking questions if there is anyone else left in the battalion, and the answer is no.
All fresh mobilized thrown to the positions are already dead.
The final is some officers left who are getting ready to go further only, as nobody else will.
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Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E- Posts : 737
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- Post n°963
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:09 am
@GeromanAT
#Russia #Ukraine #Bakhmut
RF have inflitrated the forest ares west of Ivanivske and heading towards Yahidne - if they reach Khromove from either side - the city is fully encircled.
Krasno Hora is still contested
#Russia #Ukraine #Bakhmut
RF have inflitrated the forest ares west of Ivanivske and heading towards Yahidne - if they reach Khromove from either side - the city is fully encircled.
Krasno Hora is still contested
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Hole- Posts : 11125
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This is the best insight in what kind of war the Kiev regime/combined west is conducting in 404.No support, no reinforcements.
For months there are videos with complaints from frontline fighters that there is close to zero
artillery support but in the meantime the regime found thousands of shells to hit Donetsk and
other civilian areas.
Terrorists!
In the last days there were some members of ALAMO´s zoo that dissed the VKS.
Doing nothing, terrible job...
Short reminder:
1. A lot of the cruise missiles destroying targets in the deep rear of 404 are launched by missile carriers of the VKS
2. Fighter jets are shoting down planes and destroying radars and other important targets as soon as they pop up
3. Ground attack aircraft are pounding enemy ground forces constantly
4. The attack helicopters have propably destroyed more armored vehicles than all european NATO armies (except Turkey) have combined
5. Recon drones are nearly everywhere (some of them belong to the Ground Forces)
6. Transport aircraft and helicopters may not so visible but they are working nonstop to bring in troops/supplies or evacuate wounded
What some people don´t get is that this is not one of the show wars that the americans and their minions are used to.
In this wars they bombed mostly undefended civilian targets so that some politician or officer could speak into a camera
that they destroyed x ammount of "targets" today.
In the end it´s cheaper to use 50 ATGM´s to destroy 50 vehicles instead of sending a Su-34 on a 2-hour mission to launch some
missiles or drop a few bombs.
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Hole- Posts : 11125
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Sources claim the dog did it.
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billybatts91- Posts : 707
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- Post n°966
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
billybatts91 Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:40 am
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ALAMO- Posts : 7526
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This is the best insight in what kind of war the Kiev regime/combined west is conducting in 404.
For months there are videos with complaints from frontline fighters that there is close to zero
artillery support but in the meantime the regime found thousands of shells to hit Donetsk and
other civilian areas.
Terrorists!
Oh, that is very mild of you.
Terrorists and criminals would be much, much better.
Who are much more effective in slaughtering their own people than anything else.
Have you spotted one thing lately?
In the Urowehrmacht obliterated positions, there are neither Javelins nor NLAWs.
I have watched one material yesterday, and there was ONE NLAW.
The only I have spotted for a long, long time.
Some AT4s, a really rare bird being CG ...
Where are those thousands of pieces that cleaned the NATO warehouses across the entire planet?
A really serious question : will a police in most of EU countries even dare to storm mafia foxholes now?
Is a French army capable to win a war with gangs in Marseille?
I haven't seen the Stugna either. Back in Autumn lots of those were still there - nor are gone.
Those poor chochol bastards are being thrown into the flames with AKMs from the 70s and TWO mags. Used to be four a few months ago.
The same story i being repeated over and over again by the POWs.
While most of the weapon provided has been already smuggled around the entire planet.
Those are fukin' murderers and criminals that should hang on a piano string, every single one of them.
For months there are videos with complaints from frontline fighters that there is close to zero
artillery support but in the meantime the regime found thousands of shells to hit Donetsk and
other civilian areas.
Terrorists!
Oh, that is very mild of you.
Terrorists and criminals would be much, much better.
Who are much more effective in slaughtering their own people than anything else.
Have you spotted one thing lately?
In the Urowehrmacht obliterated positions, there are neither Javelins nor NLAWs.
I have watched one material yesterday, and there was ONE NLAW.
The only I have spotted for a long, long time.
Some AT4s, a really rare bird being CG ...
Where are those thousands of pieces that cleaned the NATO warehouses across the entire planet?
A really serious question : will a police in most of EU countries even dare to storm mafia foxholes now?
Is a French army capable to win a war with gangs in Marseille?
I haven't seen the Stugna either. Back in Autumn lots of those were still there - nor are gone.
Those poor chochol bastards are being thrown into the flames with AKMs from the 70s and TWO mags. Used to be four a few months ago.
The same story i being repeated over and over again by the POWs.
While most of the weapon provided has been already smuggled around the entire planet.
Those are fukin' murderers and criminals that should hang on a piano string, every single one of them.
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Hole- Posts : 11125
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Russians found this a few days ago, somewhere around Bakhmut.
At the beginning of the SMO there were multiple pics like this on a daily basis.
Now they´re scarce.
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ALAMO- Posts : 7526
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yeah, and as we can see, mostly AT4s, some Spanish stuff.
A light weapon, in general.
RPG7 with its ammo layout is a much, much more potent weapon system than this all zoo combined..
A light weapon, in general.
RPG7 with its ammo layout is a much, much more potent weapon system than this all zoo combined..
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Nato vehicles are also nowhere on the front. The number of destroyed systems can be counted on your hands. It seems the real numbers they send to Ukraine is far smaller than the numbers seen on mainstream medias.
My opinion is they send mostly not working stuff to use ukraine as graveyard. Scrapping them is too expensive for westerners. It makes place for the new generations of vehicles that will need space for their own long time storage.
My opinion is they send mostly not working stuff to use ukraine as graveyard. Scrapping them is too expensive for westerners. It makes place for the new generations of vehicles that will need space for their own long time storage.
GarryB likes this post
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- Post n°971
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37
billybatts91 Tue Feb 07, 2023 8:37 am
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Hole- Posts : 11125
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Back to the SMO.
T-90M
T-90M
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The question is will there be a bigger offensive or not?
Rybat claims that Ukraine still has a lot of potential to be mobilized
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DerWolf- Posts : 204
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Ukraine is such a big country, of couse it has a lot of potential to mobilise.
Hole- Posts : 11125
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Hero of the Soviet Union Monk Kiprian (Burkov) lost both legs in Afghanistan and walks on prostheses. Now on the front line in the DPR.
Which level is that? 100+?
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