Russian special military operation in Ukraine #40

The offensive will vn huge i think given the gear that ukr has recived and given the massive mobilisation. This offensive might decide the outcome of the war.

The war is already decided and always has been, unless NATO decides to come in and herald an unimaginable shitfest.

Depending on how this Ukrainian offensive goes however, the war can be shortened potentially for the Russian side. Worst outcome might be, if they decide not in fact to go ahead with it.

Was the Mig 31 there to escort the Su-24?

What type of Su-24 was it... they have electronic intelligence gathering Su-24MPs that might have been there to electronically examine those F-35s...

I doubt that. Camouflaging a tank column makes sense, especially when NATO is using PGMs to hit these columns.

No level of camouflage will help in some cases... vehicles driving down a road for instance... or a vehicle disguised as a bush in the middle of an open field.

I think it was a Greek commander that commented after one HATO exercise that it would be easy to wipe out his attacking force... just shoot all the bushes...

US released the drone video. Pretty clear to me that Su-27 harrassed it.

Approaching Russian territory with its transponder turned off means it is a threat to air traffic.... even more so because the airspace of Crimea is contested airspace if you believe the US it is Ukrainian airspace and as such is a war zone.

The US lost lots of aircraft testing Soviet airspace... this one didn't have any people in it... so it would be like blowing up pipes but with less environmental damage...

It indeed looks like the propellor was clipped by the SU27, in the second pass. One of the blades was bend on the tip, you can see it in the last frames. I don't see a serious disturbance in the flight path though; the MQ-9 stays surprisingly stable but maybe this caused a serious balance issue in the propellor.

The US has said publicly they see Crimea as Ukrainian territory and are supplying Kiev with all sorts of weapons and equipment including drones, with no transponder going Russia has no way of knowing if this is a US drone or a Kiev suicide drone... ramming it makes sense.

It would take a few days for things to go through the clearance process, as multiple people and departments need to give the ok, you can't just go "This is okay now, release it"

It just takes a person near the top to say release it and it will be released.

That was not intentional, and afik the pilot of the chinese plane died.

The Western air forces all have a long history of flying places they are not welcome and their map reading and ability to stay in international airspace is rather poor.

Would say it is “ the last throw of dice “

It is going to be a massive clumsy charge by Zulu warriors against machine guns, artillery, and air power.

Last Orc offensives succeeded by Starlink communications and HATO recon finding areas in the front line very thinly defended where they sent large numbers of barely trained conscripts to burn up Russian ammo and keep their guns busy with the follow up better trained guys moved forward as the Russian forces retreated.

This time around the Russians have more troops and more artillery and air power that is rather more ready for such things...

We have seen how quickly the Russian forces have adapted and changed force structures and tactics and the Orcs have been talking about the big Spring offensive for quite some time.

RF UR-77 clears out ukrainian fortification near Kremmenaya

Wow... that was clever... normally a UR-77 launches a rocket like an AT-3 that drags out a great big long explosive charge in front of the vehicle... normally the charge is attached to a line and the line is pulled to straighten the line charge which is then detonated to blow a 6-7m wide clear path through a minefield for other vehicles to drive through, but they just sent it like a massive artillery shot at a ground position and blew it up... awesome.

Next time a Global Hawk is over the Black Sea, they should send a Tu-160 at max speed over the thing. If it's too high, a squadron of MiG-31s.

Just close the airspace as not safe for international air traffic because it is a war zone and the Kiev side uses drones to attack Russian targets so any drones spotted in the area with transponders turned off are justified targets.

I would like to see the Russian footage of the drone encounter from the SU-27s perspective.

I doubt the Russians will bother to release any footage, that drone is not longer a problem...

If you look at the two videos provided you can see the second one where the collision supposedly occurs the Flanker is turning and is not flying straight to do a fly past which suggests to me that the drone is turning too... otherwise the flanker could simply fly up from behind and fly past.

I know the US is planning to phase out the RQ-4 but I am sure that the Black Sea is not part of that plan.

A very interesting flight.


OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
3h
After circling over the Ionian Sea for almost an hour “FORTE10” appears to be continuing with its Mission now heading towards the Black Sea.

It is a war zone and the US openly admits it is openly helping Russias enemy and Kiev has already said it would attack Russia including Crimea so anything, drones, manned aircraft or anything that is HATO or Kiev owned should expect to get shot down with no apology needed... just basic common sense.

US said it was OK with Kiev attacking Russian territory including Crimea and is offering Kiev new gear all the time...

These US drones are able to be armed and the intercepting aircraft can deal with such intruders as they see fit as far as I am concerned...

For all Russia knows these drones might be controlled from Kiev.

Interesting thread attempting to geo locate the Reaper.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1636551035039744001

GeoConfirmed
@GeoConfirmed
·
8h
Very rough estimation of the flight path.

We know which directions the drone was flying in for each encounter. And we know how to orientate relative to the mountains, so this is a very rough flight path. (without knowing the distance to the shoreline.)

They received 10% of what they had a year ago. Even western MSM admits now that nearly all combat-ready, experienced troops are gone.
With close to zero air support, air defence or artillery. Embarassed

Sending men into the fire under that circumstance should be considered as a war crime, openly speaking.
It is a death dance of a falling regime thirsty of blood that can be compared only with the nazi final madness in Spring 1945.

"It just takes a person near the top to say release it and it will be released."

Not how declassifying stuff works at all, at least in the US. Even if the president says to release it still takes a few days to go through the steps.

This might be blatant ignorance on your end but its 100 percent wrong never the less