Russian special military operation in Ukraine #41

Mass usage of gliding bombs gains momentum, but let's keep in mind one thing.
Those are effective because the Ukr AD ceased to exist.
A gliding bomb is a relatively big, slow-moving target, that does not maneuver. Corrections are not maneuvering, these are being carried with small flight path deviations. The thing would have been an easy prey for Tunguska, Pancyr or Tor.
But Ukrs don't have them, even a wreckage of Osa is a rare bird today.
So before anyone will get into Wunderwaffe mode, as half of Russkie TG is doing now, please keep that in mind.
The very same medicine applied to the Russkie, would bring close to zero effect.
But I guess that NATO planners have a hard nut to crack, as almost no NATO army is covered against that threat in another way rather shooting it down with $1mln a piece of sophisticated mid-tier AD missiles.
On the other hand, they face a reality when can be hit by tens of precision delivered warheads on pair with Iskander ones, at a fraction of the cost of it, and from a range that makes their AD ineffective against the carriers.

To be specific, the total loss of Ukraine's S-300 batteries opened a massive engagement gap beyond 40 km. Now every maverick can fly high and fast lobbing gliding bombs with no fear.

But that's not all, as Russian wild weasels with their Kh-31 actually outranges any existing hohol AD. The surviving hohol AD are then presented with a difficult choice: intercept the glide bombs and be posthumous heroes, or let them pass and possibly eat a bullet anyway.

What makes me wondering, if Russkie have multiple slot pylons for it?
They have used a MBD racks for as many as 6 bombs each, bud those were limited for FAB100 if I remember correctly




In theory, a plane like Su-34 could be capable of carrying 14 pcs of such bombs in 500kg scale.
That would be a fukin monster - considering a lack of close-range support, a whole MIM-104 battery won't be able to take down a salvo of two planes.

Post Mir Today at 8:39 am

BTW the Grom-2 missile system is for the most part based on the Iskander and probably have similar flight characteristics. Not too many AD systems would be able to intercept these missiles but the S-300/400 seems to have little trouble doing so.

That is because the Soviets were known to resolve the problems created on their own.
If they had a system capable of doing something, that would mean they have countermeasures along with it.
That is why some of the systems are so bloody overkill considering the real threat presented by the perspective opponents.

Hunting for Leopards

except that would make sense if it was making Russia weaker, which it isn't.

It is also going out to the rest of the world looking for trade ties and friendship ties outside of the west which is now totally cut off.

Some western countries might restore ties after this but I am not sure Russia will want to restore ties with many of them because they are currently showing their true colours.

Things are not going back to the way they were and Russia is going to expand its trade and ties to the rest of the world to grow and develop and will not rush back to the west for partnerships... that ship has sailed.

BTW just saw John Wick IV and the subtitles claim he is from Belarus, but even I heard the word Ruskie when they were saying it...

When Russia wins a lot of countries are going to question the ability of HATO to defend Europe from an angry Bear.... and maybe question whether HATO should be led from Washington or if maybe the non European countries should be kicked out and turn it into a real European self defence force that it was supposed to be.

you really think anyone in the western loony group thinks defeating Ukraine is a big deal?" Didn't Medvedev say they could take Kiev in 1 week?

Didn't Madeline Allbright say the US could defeat Serbia in three days over the conflict in Kosovo?

They could easily take Kiev in a week... destroy all power generation capacity, destroy all the grain storage and tractors and trucks in the country and a mass migration from the country will start... after a week nuke the place flat.

But there is no way Putin would sign off on that... that is the actions and claims of a fool... being the monster the west is claiming Russia is... the US is trying to describe Russia as being just like them and failing... Russia should not change to be like the US now.

So now with 2 more new NATO members and a much expanded NATO border with Russia, what is Russia gonna do about it."

Finland is no real threat, they are scared and the west has fooled them or blackmailed them into joining... I rather suspect they got the message from Washington that you are either with us or you are with the Russians and you will either trade with us or trade with Russia and we will sanction you too.

Finland made a choice, and they will bear the results... trade will essentially stop which will hurt local Russian businesses too but they will manage.

Winning a difficult and costly victory against Ukraine is a win for the West and it encourages Western adventurism as the West is not really hurt by the defeat of Ukraine.

Losing Ukraine will be a crushing defeat for HATO in Europe... and coming after running out of Afghanistan with their tails between their legs, this new humiliation might lead some members to question why they are members and what it is even for... and the costs are going to be crippling, including all the ongoing costs to rebuild their own conventional military power too, which ironically is wasted energy because fighting HATO Russia will be using nukes.

Its just a destroyed buffer state that Russia will have to spend BILLIONS to rebuild with potential rebellions in the West and Kiev.

Some parts wont join Russia and will remain neutral... they don't need any money spent on them.

problem with this one is it preserves the govt that claims Donbas and Crimea and cannot lead to a sustainable peace.

What makes you think there is not going to be a decapping strike on the Kiev government?

They will have pro Russian people in Kiev watching and waiting for their chance to get rid of political rivals and get more moderate people into positions of power... for a neutral state.

If you leave it, it will be in a state of war with Russia and NATO will supply it with increasingly more powerful weapons to strike deeper into Russia. So the west can just use Russia/Ukraine as a testing ground for western weapons indefinitely. How is that a good scenario?

Russia has been nice so far... left the power largely on, allowed crops to be gathered and stored and shipped, allowed civilian transport to continue despite the fact that it is being used to shift weapons and ammo and fuel to the front line too... once they have the territory they want a decapitating strike on Kiev to eliminate the nazis and Zelenskies and then really hit them hard by taking out the power generation and food and all transport moving from east to west of the country and letting traffic going to the west go, and destroying anything heading east.

If Russia doesn't take the decision to make strategic strikes on all the refineries in Ukraine, all the bridges and govt buildings, then it is going to be the same long slog that it is now.

The inevitable result of western escalation.... but when...

The S-300/400 does not seem to have Mid-course intercept capability, they intercept only at Terminal phase.

If it is only operating at 15km altitude it could intercept it from launch to impact.

Upgraded S-300s can engage targets moving rather faster than that.

That is because the Soviets were known to resolve the problems created on their own.

Indeed, for their ships they didn't develop air defence systems to stop large numbers of subsonic missiles that are the threat the west poses, they developed their air defence to stop their own weapons... which is why Soviet ships were so heavily equipped with air defence missiles and guns.