Russian special military operation in Ukraine #41

Russia wouldn't want a Vietnam ending

To lose the war, to be able to say they killed "many more soldiers"

That's a recipe for defeat

Casualty count according to Mediazona and BBC

So we have been right generally about casualties

What's interesting is for pro Ukrainian and western count , even though they say it's low ,

They're analysts and intelligence is combing VK and other Russian media to see for postings on losses

This is what they could muster

In reality the count could be lower , if this includes Wagner and LDNR losses

But shocking to see Russia has taken almost no losses

Here mediazona even confirms that this count includes inmate losses

I think they are underreporting the inmates to keep the number of official RU losses higher

I think it's closer to 7k inmates, 7k LDNR 4-5k RU army

What we see here is a chart depicting Tanker, Artillery, and Pilot losses heading to the November battle of bakhmut timeline,

We see it drop as Bakhmut begins, confirming the army has disappeared , while wagner and inmate losses surge as Bakhmut begins:




It proves the Russian army is lurking behind the line

Which is why the west probably doesn't want to let Zelensky start his own offensive or even use the Leopards

Considering if Zelensky uses his last forces, and leaves the Russian army a clear path to Dnieper -

But what it shows is why the ammo consumption drops in November from around 50,000-60,000 per day to 10,000 per day around the time when Prigozhin starts whining about ammo

I think that Surovikin, which later was credited with Bakhmut strategy by Prigozhin, slowed consumption and rate of advance to stockpile ammo and equipment for when the army comes out of hibernation I will show another post with ammo production from both sides

We have western media report on ammo shortages



We have Shoigu, Medvedev and Putin visiting assorted factories, and we are confirmed ammo will increase 8x by end of 2023


Meanwhile Lockheed is only making 10k a year, of GMLRS, meaning if they are exporting GMLRS, and providing to US forces their own stocks, Ukraine likely can fire off 3-4 salvo a day at best... which speaks for itself


Lockheed says by 2024 theyl ramp up to 14,000, but this is still a small number, it's even more worrying for Ukraine that US will only be able to produce 98k shells for 155mm a month, by 2028...

This means if Russia returns to even HALF of the stated 8x production, given that current production is 3.5 million shells a year , we have 12 million shells produced, while US by 2028 will be making 1.2 million shells by 2028...

There is just no way to win against Russia in a kinetic conflict , let alone escalating the conflict

Then you look at FAB500 UPMC production:yury Ignat from Ukrainian Air Force says Su35 and Su34 is blowing Avdeyevka , Kharkov, Sumy with FAB500 at a rate of 20 gliding FABS a day

Fighterbomber says UMPC outfit for FAB will increase to 300 a day, meaning usage can increase

But if current VKS sorties are 200 a day average, and most are drone/recon/or non strike missions, then the amount of fixed wing aircraft able to deliver these UMPC needs to increase, another selling point for Mig35

More FAB launchers are needed, and pilots as well

Finally: given the industrial and casualty disparity between Russia and Ukraine/NATO

this shows why US does not want to give F16 or M1Abrams to Ukraine- the US has 3500 M1abrams in storage, and over 1000 F16 in reserve or active use - they can easily give Ukraine 500 tanks and 100 F16

Why they do not? Because Milley and likely CIA already gamed the war. They can't win in escalation - if you game the numbers Russia wins every time

The only way west can win, is to keep the conflict at low simmer. Not that the strategy will work, but its their best shot

Keep it low and slow,  draining Putins political points, and score cheap shots by terror attacks on the bridge, Low level journalists and bloggers like Fomin and Dugina, just under the threshold of provoking a massive response

But enough to damage the Kremlin and divide society

It's smart, and realistically the only way they have a chance , but it won't work

Because by the same token, the low boil suits Putin as well - granted security is noticeable, and although there is no war in Russia or even noticed, the measures are becoming more visible to society

But ultimately by this strategy Putin has insulated the Russian economy from large shocks, prevented radical fluctuations in the economic recovery, and generally runs a conflict without economic strain

I think for all parties, For west and Ukraine (out of self preservation) a low boil with terror attacks suits them, and for Russia this gentleman's war with slow grind of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians for 18k RU army/inmates/wagner/LDNR is acceptable

For Putin even more so, as the west won't get to face China with its industrial capacity bottlenecked on Ukraine

In short, No matter the pace of the war,  Russia will win every outcome  - for the west its a choice to be made

Lose now, or lose later - and that choice will be dependent on how their elites choose to break the news to their own populations of how the hegemony ended

Mediazona reports 110 killed which is probably overstated anyway

But the real shocker is how the figure dropped to 1 killed in all of January- March

So UMPC really made a difference

Even given that, I'd say the numbers are good and slide down after the Ukrainian air defense basically disappeared as an integrated system

The VKS is basically flying 200 median sorties a day , with 1 loss in 3 months

Check the disclosure in the bottom of military pilots bar graph

It states 110

Casualty count according to Mediazona and BBC wrote:

Same source says 157k irretrievable losses for Russia. So what is that based on?