Russian special military operation in Ukraine #44

Sprinter
@Sprinter99880
·
45m
French President Macron confirmed for the first time that the SAMP/T air defense system is already deployed and functioning in Ukraine.

In February, France and Italy jointly agreed to transfer the SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine and purchase 700 Aster-30 missiles for it.

Germany has about 20,000 NATO artillery shells of 155 mm caliber left.

Although, according to NATO requirements, 230 thousand units should be accumulated in the reserves of the Bundeswehr until 2031, Spiegel writes. According to the publication, the German Defense Ministry plans to make bulk purchases of shells to make up for their shortage.

Tonight's smile

Sprinter
@Sprinter99880
·
2h
Extremely realistic models of Russian air defense systems were again seen on American railways. Plush models of the 9A331 combat vehicle 9K331 Tor-M1 air defense system and the 5N63S command post from the S-300PS air defense system got into the frame

Meanwhile, the US still can't find any evidence to pin the dam on Russia. Says it all really as to who did it, again.

Sprinter
@Sprinter99880
·
3h
U.S. does not yet draw conclusions about who is guilty of destroying the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station - White House


Meanwhile

Edit : Kamov on flight with tail teared off.

I remember reading a story about armour testing with the Ka-50 where a Ka-50 was flown by remote control out onto a firing range and a ZSU-23-4 opened up on it and fired a burst of 200 shells at the helicopter. The report said the tail was blown off the aircraft but otherwise the aircraft was able to fly and managed to fly back to base and land safely by remote.

The armour and flat windscreens on the Ka-50 are armoured to stop 23mm HEI rounds at any distance, but of course the curved screens on the Ka-52 are not armoured which is a weakness most other helicopters share.

Will be extracting OT material from this thread shortly...

1. Did it land safely in Russian territory?

It should have... it does not require a tail to fly...

All the signs are there. Kiev is already confiscating civilian vehicles and the soldiers in the field wants to end this madness. The end is near.
The Russian counter offensive should be a walk in the park - if they decide to go on the offensive. Even the West is getting tired of this.

Agree but I would never treat it like a walk in the park, they are nasty bastards and I would treat them with respect right up until their last breath and they are dead.

JohninMK wrote:Sprinter
@Sprinter99880
·
2h
Extremely realistic models of Russian air defense systems were again seen on American railways. Plush models of the 9A331 combat vehicle 9K331 Tor-M1 air defense system and the 5N63S command post from the S-300PS air defense system got into the frame

I guarantee you that the cost of each decoy will be higher than the cost of a Lancet should one be used to take out the decoy.

JohninMK wrote:Shame on them, spoiling our fun

ayden
@squatsons
·
7h
Reports about the transfer of Israeli Merkava tanks to Ukraine do not correspond to reality, RIA Novosti was told by the Israeli Defense Ministry

I was looking forward to a big steaming bowl of irony should the Zionists have been stupid enough to provide Merkava tanks to Ukropi Nazis. That would have been a 1st class clown-world event

No, I have been arguing with a relative who backs Ukraine. I have been trying to tell him he is just parroting lies.  The Forbes article was his latest claim.  I hadn't heard that one in a while so I thought I'd ask.  Its good to know his claim is yet more BS like all the rest

Track down a video of LMUR in operation... it uses a very high quality IIR sensor to find and attack targets and has a two way digital datalink so the crew in the launch aircraft can view the scene the missile sees in flight in real time and choose a target for the missile to hit or let it choose its target automatically.

Every single use of the missile destroys the IIR sensor so they have to be cheap and they have to be mass produced, and the quality shown in the videos is excellent...

They started licence producing French thermal imagers which were the best available and were better quality than many in use in most HATO countries at the time or since.

The grainy videos we see ATM from helicopter attacks with missiles is either because the video has been degraded on purpose or the engagements are at 10km or more and digital zoom is being used to get a better view of what is happening ( at the cost of resolution of the image).

It's a Russian tank. No sign of Ukraine operating any vanilla T-55s, only the M-55S, and this is not one of them.

The story is that they rigged it for remote control and loaded it up with explosives and sent it towards enemy lines... obviously they will use an old model tank for that, no matter what side it came from...

Hole wrote:Unconfirmed Reports:

The Russian Army has advanced 2 km in the direction of Kupyansk. A fierce battle is underway, the enemy is retreating. Our troops are almost on the outskirts of the city.

Slavyangrad


-1 Kirpi

Those wheels are miniscule

Who the hell designs these things?

Removed some OT stuff and rather than split it up into different threads it is all going to the talking bollocks thread

Here is the link

Further off topic comments go there please and keep this threat for topics about the conflict or related to it.

The decoys , I doubt , will all be made of steel . Although they are carried by rail , this is more to do with it's dimensions than weight . Building entirely steel decoy very costly and heavy , transporting it a difficult task , without an engine . True a heat source can mimic engine for IR sensors . But 3D radar on UAV can detect internal structure and compare to library or magnetometers on UAV can detect large steel structure at ranges of 10 meters . Easy for UAV to fly past , before target hit , to save ammo . Regarding detection of troops at night , you can use powerful torch suspended from UAV , behind enemy lines , detection by simple viewing by naked eye . UAV far enough to avoid small arms fire . Me thinks ! Looks like the Ukrs can not Cope -yansk with Russian offensives !



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhip1a7taPQ&pp=ygUbV29ybGQncyBta3N0IHBvd2VyZnVsIHRvcmNo

Patriot is "extraordinary" Kiev has no electricity again..

Power outages confirmed in Kiev

"At 7:47 a.m., four high-voltage substations of DTEK Kiev Electric Grids were de-energized. Without electricity, there were residents of Podil and Obolon and partly of Troyeshchyna.

Power engineers promptly switched customers to backup power sources and returned power to all houses at 8:12. The causes of the accident are being investigated," DTEK said in a statement.

Recall that Shahids were shot down in the vicinity of Kiev this night.

-Ukrainian channel Strana (https://t.me/stranaua/110647)

Zin Note: So the Geraniums were shot down, but managed to damage the energy grid ?
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51508


* “Americans are showing a surprising appetite for direct military intervention in Mexico to wage war against the smuggling cartels that are pumping drugs and illegal immigrants into the U.S.”
https://t.me/intelslava/49017

If you are talking about those vehicles see in the US, the TOR system could be one of many the Ukrainians already had, and most of the other vehicles they had or might have captured will be there to be examined... the whole idea of a decoy is to make them cheap and simple and those are way to detailed to be decoys.

Most targets on the battlefield can be covered in bits of plants and camouflaged so decoys don't need to be that precise... just dimensionally right.

The vast majority of drones don't have radar and the ones that do won't have X ray performance to see internal components of metal vehicle even from up very close.

Recon isn't that amazing.

A heat source to fake the presence of an engine could be a small electric battery and an electric heater or just a gas heater.

UAVs watching enemy troops at night wont use torches... it would just be a bullet magnet that all the troops on the ground will open fire on or hide behind something so they are not lit up by the light which would also hide them from the UAV making using the torch redundant and also counter productive... especially if it has a thermal camera which would not benefit from the light from a torch anyway because thermal imagers can't detect visible light.

Fortunately Russia seems to know what it is doing and the Orcs are getting more and more desperate and more and more stupid.

As the Kiev forces get weaker there will likely come a point where despair becomes widespread and their lines start to collapse with enemy troops either surrendering or leaving their positions and falling back against orders... when that starts then Russian forces should probably start moving forwards to take positions they are abandoning, bypassing areas with enemy that still want to fight and surrounding them and just waiting them out... surround areas and negotiate their surrender enmass in groups rather than fighting for towns and populated areas... hopefully they wont even have to fight for most places and just deal with small pockets of the hard core nutters... as they move forward friendly civilians can be put into office and organise referendums for the locals to decide their future... the 250km range of Storm Shadows means regions that have voted to become part of the Russian Federation need a 250km buffer zone beyond them of neutral territory so they can be safe from enemy attacks the way the Donbass and Lugansk never was for the last better part of a decade... that buffer zone can then have referendums regarding its future which will not include the EU or HATO or any ties with Europe, they can join the RF or they can be neutral... till the Russian forces get to international borders... enemy fire from those states would be a declaration of war against Russia for which Russia can deal rather more harshly because these regions are not occupied Russian regions... they are declared enemy of Russia EU and HATO states where they don't need to care about civilians or being gentle.

Has anybody entertained the idea that those highly detailed mockups could be used for "training" targeting systems? AI-powered target recognition perhaps?

Because making mockups/decoys in the U.S. and shipping them over to UA sounds like an awfully roundabout way of doing it. Any decent sized workshop in nextdoor Poland could provide those, faster and cheaper.

GarryB wrote:If you are talking about those vehicles see in the US, the TOR system could be one of many the Ukrainians already had, and most of the other vehicles they had or might have captured will be there to be examined... the whole idea of a decoy is to make them cheap and simple and those are way to detailed to be decoys.
Most targets on the battlefield can be covered in bits of plants and camouflaged so decoys don't need to be that precise... just dimensionally right.
The vast majority of drones don't have radar and the ones that do won't have X ray performance to see internal components of metal vehicle even from up very close.
Recon isn't that amazing.
A heat source to fake the presence of an engine could be a small electric battery and an electric heater or just a gas heater.

Dummies were used with a great effect back in 1999. Usually it was good enough to make a shape alike, add some wave reflector, and heat source to fool most of the targeting devices.
A need of more complex and detailed pieces came along with an increasing resolution of recon tools, all kinds of them. You can scan the area with radar beam precise enough to find if that is a steel crate or a steel box similar to tank.
Ruskie fooled Javelins by attaching a wood lodge with iron pot filled with burning wood/coal at the end.

A large-scale purge is under way in Ukraine's foreign ministries and agencies to identify employees disloyal to Kiev, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has said.

Against this background, there is a growing trend for representatives of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Defence Ministry and special services not to return to Kiev, with many of them remaining in the host country and becoming refugees, the agency said.

In this regard, the FIS appealed to employees of Ukrainian government agencies abroad, suggesting that they come to Moscow and promising that they will be guaranteed security in Russian territory.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51513



TCC staff in Zaporozhye have had a bad time handing out summonses...
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51514

Numbers

There are significant disagreements among the authors regarding the size of the mobilization resource of Ukraine.

We will place various estimates of the number of Ukraine's mobilization resource in ascending order of numbers.

For example, the commander of the Viking group of the Western Military District believes that the mobilization reserve of Ukraine is no more than half a million people (1).

Military analyst Vladislav Shurygin estimates the mobilization potential of Ukraine at 2 million people (2). The newspaper "Version" calls a higher figure of 4 million people (3). General Netkachev defines Ukraine's mobilization resource as no less than 5 million people (4).

According to Rostislav Antonov (5), the male population of Ukraine aged 20-65 is 6.2 million, but no more than 2 million can be conscripted.

The LostArmour analytical agency calculated the mobilization resource in the territories controlled by Kyiv at the end of 2021 as 9 million men aged 18-59.

A similar figure is 9 million people, but at the end of 2022, Mikhail Moshkin, a columnist for the Vzglyad newspaper, also gives (6).

Sergei Koldin believes that the mobilization resource of Ukraine is even higher - up to 10 million people (7).

There are still many estimates of the size of Ukraine's mobilization resource circulating on the Internet, but they all fit into this numerical alignment.

Thus, estimates of Ukraine's mobilization resource fluctuate in a fairly wide range: from half a million to 10 million people (i.e., 20 times more).

Therefore, we will try to determine the approximate mobilization resource of Ukraine on the basis of statistics.

General remarks

The only population census in the years of Ukraine's independence was conducted in 2001, but for more than 20 years, its data has clearly become outdated and therefore can no longer be used for calculation.

The following figures are largely estimates and therefore have a certain error.

Initial basis

To begin with, let's determine the uppermost limit of Ukraine's mobilization resource.

According to the most recent data from the Ukrainian Statistical Office (, as of January 1, 2022, the number of men aged 18 to 54 throughout Ukraine (according to the Ukrstat note, without Crimea, but with Lugansk and Donetsk regions) was 10,312,873 people.

That is, the maximum upper figure of the mobilization resource of Ukraine is 10.3 million people (in fact, less than the mobilization resource of the LPR and DPR, but we will take this into account below).

Liberated areas

During the NMD, 4 regions were liberated: Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. The number of men aged 18 to 54 years according to the same source ( was: Lugansk region - 511,360, Donetsk - 974,875, Zaporozhye - 404,890, Kherson - 251,362 people, in the amount of 2,142,487 people.

In other words, the mobilization resource of the liberated regions is 2.1 million people.

Subtracting this figure from the total mobilization resource of all Ukraine, we get 8,170,386 people.

In other words, the mobilization resource of Ukraine in the territories controlled by Kyiv is 8.2 million people.

Migration

Now it is necessary to take into account the forced migration from Ukraine during the NWO.

According to Kommersant, citing the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, as of January 2023, the total number of refugees from Ukraine amounted to 7,915,287 people, of which 2,852,395 went to Russia (9).

With some certainty, it can be assumed that residents of regions controlled by the Russian army moved to Russia. At that time, 5,062,892 people, i.e. 5.1 million people, left the territories controlled by Kyiv.

The question arises, what was the percentage of men in military age. According to The Guardian newspaper, as of April 2022, 90% of migrants from Ukraine were women and children (10).

Unfortunately, the author could not find other data on the age and sex composition of migrants from Ukraine. Considering that The Guardian wrote about migrants to Europe, and the fact that Ukraine has banned military-age men from leaving the country since the beginning of the NWO, it seems quite likely that of the 5.1 million migrants mentioned above, only 10% were of military age. .

It follows that 506,289 people of military age left the territories controlled by Kyiv.

Thus, the mobilization resource of Ukraine in the territories controlled by Kyiv, taking into account migration, is 7,664,097 people, i.e. 7.7 million people.

There is another less reliable method: according to Nina Yuzhanina (11), a member of the Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy (11), a total of 4.6 million people of working age have left Ukraine, of which 3.2 million are women, just outside Ukraine left 1.4 million men of working age.

If all these figures are attributed to the territories under the control of Kyiv, then the mobilization resource will be 6.8 million people.

Combat losses

The most difficult parameter to evaluate.

A wide variety of loss figures are circulating on the Internet, so the author tried to look for the highest figures. Judging by the search, Life edition estimates the highest loss of the Ukrainian army: 450-500 thousand losses for the entire time of the NWO (12).

Subtracting these figures, we get that the mobilization resource of Ukraine at the moment is 7.2 million people, of which 1 million people, according to Zelensky, have already been mobilized.

In other words, Ukraine can theoretically carry out another 6 million mobilizations.

According to the second method, we get 6.3 million people, 1 million mobilized and the theoretical possibility of carrying out another 5 million mobilizations.

Thus, we can conclude that the mobilization resource of Ukraine, taking into account the errors of the methodology, is in the range of 6–8 million people with a higher probability of the upper figure, that is, most likely, the upper estimates of the number of the mobilization resource of Ukraine are closer to the truth (of course, the question arises how many of this number will actually be mobilized, but this cannot be determined by statistical data).

True, it is worth recalling that, according to the statement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Russia's mobilization resource is 25 million people and specifically at least three times more than the Ukrainian one.

PS

An interesting detail: if, according to Ukrstat, the number of men aged 18 to 54 in Ukraine as of January 1, 2022 was 10,312,873 people, then of them in the south and east of Ukraine - 4,466,883 people (43.3%), in the central and northern part of the country - 3,188,806 people (30.9%), and in Western Ukraine - 2,657,184 people (25.8%). That is, without the Russian-speaking southeast from Kharkov to Odessa, the mobilization resource of Ukraine would have been almost 2 times less, and if Western Ukraine had been initially separated into a separate state without Kiev with adjacent regions, then 4 times.

Application

The distribution of regions of Ukraine by the number of men aged 18–54 is as follows.

South-East of Ukraine: Donetsk region - 974,875 people, Zaporozhye region - 404,890 people, Luhansk region - 511,360 people, Kherson region - 251,362 people, Dnipropetrovsk region - 768,486 people, Mykolaiv region - 275,880 people, Odessa region - 601,305 people, Kharkiv region - 678,725 people.

Center and North of Ukraine:Vinnitsa region - 373,550 people, Zhytomyr region - 297,874 people, Kiev region - 437,766 people, Kirovohrad region - 222,396 people, Poltava region - 340,356 people, Sumy region - 257,339 people, Cherkasy region - 286,508 people, Chernihiv region region - 234,350 people, Kiev - 738,667 people.

Western Ukraine: Volyn region - 257,975 people, Transcarpathian region - 325,260 people, Ivano-Frankivsk region - 349,556 people, Lviv region - 638,460 people, Rivne region - 289,429 people, Ternopil region - 261,411 people, Khmelnytsky region - 305,365 people, Chernivtsi region - 229,728 people.

https://topwar-ru.translate.goog/219378-andrej-loginov-ocenka-mobilizacionnogo-resursa-ukrainy.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Since 4 June, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have launched 263 attacks on Russian positions, all of them have been repelled - Shoigu

Kiev continues to attempt attacks in the southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions with elite formations trained by NATO specialists, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu has said.

He also noted that the use of HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles outside the special operations area would mean a full-fledged involvement of the US and the UK in the conflict.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51516

Very difficult to estimate Banderastan's mobilisation potential. Eurostat will have its own spin and biases.
10m or so popln has joined RUssia. 10 to 12m has left for Russia or the EU. Some of that figure will be from Russian liberated areas.

The Pukraine's remaining population is prob 19 to 23m. And was prob 40m before the Crimea and parts of Donbass were part liberated.

I'd reckon 170k to 200k are dead. Maybe another 180k are v much incapacitated. Another 100k are incap til the war's end. The actual figures could be way higher though.

How many could the Pukraine draw from?  As a rule, 10m males left. Exclude young kids and older, weaker males. THat  prob leaves a pool of 5m of approx mobilisation age including those already dead.

But the next question is, surely many mobilisation age males left the Ukraine either during or before the special op. Given that there was a war going on since 2014.

Additionally, how many of that mobilisation pool can be used as infantry and how many are needed for support functions or other economic uses. The Pukraine also has to train these troops without further collapsing its own economy.

One year ago, the Pukraine troops looked like civilians on their first day in uniform. Now the troops look either very young, or well past "prime age". That suggests further shortages.

The CIA reckoned 2009 Ukraine could raise 7m males fit for military service.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_global_manpower_fit_for_military_service
Assuming the population of the Pukraine is now half of that, it would translate to 3.5m males.
Given how many will be needed for non infantry eg civil roles, that means the Pukraine is seriously fucked up... in so many ways.

I also wonder how Russia could support  a pro Russian Peoples Resistance in the Banderite occupied territories.

With over 500k of that 3.5m gone, the question is now, what proportion of those males can the Pukraine have as infantry and how many are needed for other functions.
Then... how many women could be used as frontline troops, because the Americans would love a load of that shit being pushed down people;s throats.

I reckon the Pukraine will run out of equipment and infrastructure and trained staff before cannon fodder.
Surely when the current army is incapacitated, that would be it for the Pukraine as a mass army.

My concern is how can Russia somehow protect the pro Russian part of the Pukraine from forced mobilisation.

"Mobilization potential" means all males from 18 to 54 living there.
But for practical reasons you can´t mobilize all males.
No more electricity.
No more clean water.
No more waste management.
No more repairs of roads, railways...
No production of most stuff.
Mobilizing all males would mean you got a big army (with questionable combat potential) but
no functioning state to support it.

Applying any type of social structure studied pre-2009 for survey is useless.
404 faced a mass body draining for a whole the time after.
A soon as the craziness with the "colorful revolution" started, tons of Ukrainians voted with their own feet.
This country has a damaged social structure well before 2014 coup, and the things didn't get better after.

First, my educated guess is that there are no 19-23 mln people left there, but <18mln.
Second, those 18 mln social structure is pensioners heavy and old.
Third, there are much more than the assumed 170-200k dead, the only question is if it is double that or more.
Some Ukrainians I have spoken to claim that the real numbers are even more terrifying.

Lvov digs up graves of soldiers killed in past wars to make room for the recently fallen - NYT

City authorities have begun exhuming unnamed graves of soldiers who were buried as far back as World War I, young men who died at the beginning of the last century, in cemeteries, the publication writes.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51518



* A captured Ukrainian soldier: "Someone is earning medals for himself, and people are running out, there are no people left".
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51519


* 12:54 The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to pull their personnel to the border with Russia. Their locations are calculated and destroyed by Western Military District artillery.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51520

* 13:05 Sumy region 20.06 11:45 (Moscow time)
Arrival at the enemy position in the south of Sumy region.
The fighters report that our Tornado-S has fired off a 300mm guided missile.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/51521

H I Sutton
@CovertShores
***UPDATE***
Here-> http://hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones-Evolution.html


Overview of the evolution of #Ukraine’s maritime drones (USVs) and the Russian copies. With time, we can piece this together.

Perhaps when the war is over we can have a more complete report, but this is how it seems based on #OSINT
7:09 AM · Jun 20, 2023
·
70.8K
Views

NSFW warning for dead troops

RF forces assault Ukrainian strongholds in the marinka region



Edit 1: added TOS-1A bombardment

RF forces bombard Ukrainian forces with TOS-1A in the Avdiivka region