NumbersThere are significant disagreements among the authors
regarding the size of the mobilization resource of Ukraine.We will place various estimates of the number of Ukraine's mobilization resource in ascending order of numbers.
For example, the commander of the Viking group of the Western Military District believes that the mobilization reserve of Ukraine is no more than half a million people (1).
Military analyst Vladislav Shurygin estimates the mobilization potential of Ukraine at 2 million people (2). The newspaper "Version" calls a higher figure of 4 million people (3). General Netkachev defines Ukraine's mobilization resource as no less than 5 million people (4).
According to Rostislav Antonov (5), the male population of Ukraine aged 20-65 is 6.2 million, but no more than 2 million can be conscripted.
The LostArmour analytical agency calculated the mobilization resource in the territories controlled by Kyiv at the end of 2021 as 9 million men aged 18-59.
A similar figure is 9 million people, but at the end of 2022, Mikhail Moshkin, a columnist for the Vzglyad newspaper, also gives (6).
Sergei Koldin believes that the mobilization resource of Ukraine is even higher - up to 10 million people (7).
There are still many estimates of the size of Ukraine's mobilization resource circulating on the Internet, but they all fit into this numerical alignment.
Thus, estimates of Ukraine's mobilization resource fluctuate in a fairly wide range: from half a million to 10 million people (i.e., 20 times more).
Therefore, we will try to determine the approximate mobilization resource of Ukraine on the basis of statistics.
General remarksThe only population census in the years of Ukraine's independence was conducted in 2001, but for more than 20 years, its data has clearly become outdated and therefore can no longer be used for calculation.
The following figures are largely estimates and therefore have a certain error.
Initial basis
To begin with, let's determine the uppermost limit of Ukraine's mobilization resource.
According to the most recent data from the Ukrainian Statistical Office (
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as of January 1, 2022, the number of men aged 18 to 54 throughout Ukraine (according to the Ukrstat note, without Crimea, but with Lugansk and Donetsk regions) was 10,312,873 people.That is, the maximum upper figure of the mobilization resource of Ukraine is 10.3 million people (in fact, less than the mobilization resource of the LPR and DPR, but we will take this into account below).
Liberated areasDuring the NMD,
4 regions were liberated: Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. The number of men aged 18 to 54 years according to the same source (
was: Lugansk region - 511,360, Donetsk - 974,875, Zaporozhye - 404,890, Kherson - 251,362 people, in the amount of 2,142,487 people.
In other words, the mobilization resource of the liberated regions is 2.1 million people.
Subtracting this figure from the total mobilization resource of all Ukraine, we get 8,170,386 people.
In other words, the mobilization resource of Ukraine in the territories controlled by Kyiv is 8.2 million people.
MigrationNow it is necessary to take into account the forced migration from Ukraine during the NWO.
According to Kommersant, citing the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees,
as of January 2023, the total number of refugees from Ukraine amounted to 7,915,287 people, of which 2,852,395 went to Russia (9).With some certainty, it can be assumed that residents of regions controlled by the Russian army moved to Russia.
At that time, 5,062,892 people, i.e. 5.1 million people, left the territories controlled by Kyiv.The question arises, what was the percentage of men in military age. According to The Guardian newspaper, as of April 2022, 90% of migrants from Ukraine were women and children (10).
Unfortunately, the author could not find other data on the age and sex composition of migrants from Ukraine. Considering that The Guardian wrote about migrants to Europe, and the fact that Ukraine has banned military-age men from leaving the country since the beginning of the NWO, it seems quite likely that of the 5.1 million migrants mentioned above, only 10% were of military age. .
It follows that 506,289 people of military age left the territories controlled by Kyiv.
Thus, the mobilization resource of Ukraine in the territories controlled by Kyiv, taking into account migration, is 7,664,097 people, i.e. 7.7 million people.
There is another less reliable method: according to Nina Yuzhanina (11), a member of the Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy (11), a total of 4.6 million people of working age have left Ukraine, of which 3.2 million are women, just outside Ukraine left 1.4 million men of working age.
If all these figures are attributed to the territories under the control of Kyiv, then the mobilization resource will be 6.8 million people.
Combat losses
The most difficult parameter to evaluate.
A wide variety of loss figures are circulating on the Internet, so the author tried to look for the highest figures. Judging by the search, Life edition estimates the highest loss of the Ukrainian army: 450-500 thousand losses for the entire time of the NWO (12).
Subtracting these figures, we get that the mobilization resource of Ukraine at the moment is 7.2 million people, of which 1 million people, according to Zelensky, have already been mobilized.
In other words, Ukraine can theoretically carry out another 6 million mobilizations.
According to the second method, we get 6.3 million people, 1 million mobilized and the theoretical possibility of carrying out another 5 million mobilizations.
Thus, we can conclude that the mobilization resource of Ukraine, taking into account the errors of the methodology, is in the range of 6–8 million people with a higher probability of the upper figure, that is, most likely, the upper estimates of the number of the mobilization resource of Ukraine are closer to the truth (of course, the question arises how many of this number will actually be mobilized, but this cannot be determined by statistical data).
True, it is worth recalling that, according to the statement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Russia's mobilization resource is 25 million people and specifically at least three times more than the Ukrainian one.
PS
An interesting detail: if, according to Ukrstat, the number of men aged 18 to 54 in Ukraine as of January 1, 2022 was 10,312,873 people, then of them in the south and east of Ukraine - 4,466,883 people (43.3%), in the central and northern part of the country - 3,188,806 people (30.9%), and in Western Ukraine - 2,657,184 people (25.8%). That is, without the Russian-speaking southeast from Kharkov to Odessa, the mobilization resource of Ukraine would have been almost 2 times less, and if Western Ukraine had been initially separated into a separate state without Kiev with adjacent regions, then 4 times.
ApplicationThe distribution of regions of Ukraine by the number of men aged 18–54 is as follows.
South-East of Ukraine: Donetsk region - 974,875 people, Zaporozhye region - 404,890 people, Luhansk region - 511,360 people, Kherson region - 251,362 people, Dnipropetrovsk region - 768,486 people, Mykolaiv region - 275,880 people, Odessa region - 601,305 people, Kharkiv region - 678,725 people.
Center and North of Ukraine:Vinnitsa region - 373,550 people, Zhytomyr region - 297,874 people, Kiev region - 437,766 people, Kirovohrad region - 222,396 people, Poltava region - 340,356 people, Sumy region - 257,339 people, Cherkasy region - 286,508 people, Chernihiv region region - 234,350 people, Kiev - 738,667 people.
Western Ukraine: Volyn region - 257,975 people, Transcarpathian region - 325,260 people, Ivano-Frankivsk region - 349,556 people, Lviv region - 638,460 people, Rivne region - 289,429 people, Ternopil region - 261,411 people, Khmelnytsky region - 305,365 people, Chernivtsi region - 229,728 people.
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