2023 Nigerien coup d'état

Niger going there own way.

This is a huge problem for the West and especially France.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
France is experiencing a significant decline in influence in Africa.

Colleagues at Thucydides' Trap have published a striking diagram showing how France is being pushed out of Africa. The stickers on the map indicate the countries from which Paris has been forced to withdraw over the past year and a half.

This decline can be attributed to France's own foreign policy mistakes, Africa's desire for independence from the West and sovereignty, as well as the increasing influence of Russia and China on the continent.

The recent coup in Niger is particularly noteworthy. Both the US and France have condemned it, which indicates that it is not in their favor.

It will be interesting to observe the fate of Niger's uranium mines. Before the coup, the French company Orano was engaged in uranium mining there. Now, we have to wait and see which companies will take up active development.

It's worth noting that Russia closely follows the uranium context in Kazakhstan, as it accounts for more than 40 per cent of the world's uranium production. This is also why Britain and the United States are strongly opposed to Russia's actions in Kazakhstan.

#Source
@Slavyangrad



Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
Macron declares readiness to defend French interests in Niger

If necessary, the President of France will decide on the protection of compatriots in the African state. This statement was made today by the press service of the Elysee Palace.

Macron's determination is due to the events in the Niger capital Niamey, where rebel forces overthrew the pro-French government the day before.

“Emmanuel Macron will not tolerate any attack against France and her interests. France will respond immediately and rigorously if its citizens are attacked,” the French authorities said in a statement.

"Resolute Macron" should first tame the Africans inside his own country, and only then look behind the curtain of the continent.

Holy shit, if this is true France is in deep energy trouble (50% of its NPP uranium comes from Niger) they will have to react, possibly militarily. Especially if Niger withdraws its central bank functions from Paris as well.

I would suggest that the timing of this tiger tail pull could be a terrible mistake.

This is not quite on the scale of what Qaddafi in Libya was going to do and see what happened to him. We will see what African solidarity and Russian (perhaps more accurately, Wagner) support will bring on the scene.

France attempting to intervene militarily in any way in Niger would be, as you put it, a 'tiger tail pull'.
Last thing Europe would want to get involved in at the moment and galvanize certainly most of Francophone Africa against them openly, along with many other countries on the continent who aren't keen to see European militaries involved anywhere in Africa again.

Which is why I don't think we'll see that happen.
I suspect the French will simply turn to the West's new found friends in Kazakhstan instead, who would be more than happy to supply them any uranium that Niger will refuse to supply. Not that Niger will necessarily refuse to supply them either mind you, business is business after all.

Half comes from Niger. And the rest comes from Kazakhstan and Russia. And guess who owns the Kazakhstan uranium mining operations. Try reading about "Uranium One".

Ah well then that's certainly a nice kick to the balls to them then

Still, don't see why Niger will all of a sudden decide to cut off supplies of Uranium to France. The new government in Niger might insist on renegotiating the agreements, but France will still get its Uranium.

If not, well then I guess there's always a color revolution attempt in Kazakhstan again to try and bring a more openly Russophobic regime to power there.

France will respond immediately 

Last time (Mali) French troops were brought in by russian planes. Won´t happen this time. 

If the French really do take military action, it will if anything take French resources, weapons and mercenaries away from the Ukrainian front.
Either way Russia will definitly benefit from this.

Its all China and Russia's fault, especially the latter showing that the US in not omnipotent. As in the school playground, as soon as someone stands up to the bully their power fades.

Expect more charter flights from Belarus to Africa

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
.
2m
In a remarkable display of sovereignty, African states are refusing to play the old colonial game with their former masters. Instead, they are asserting their independence and forging their own paths, aligning with China and Russia rather than with traditional Western powers like France, the EU, or the USA. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has become a catalyst for the unification of the global south under the auspices of BRICS, propelling Africa to new heights.

It is high time for genuine partnerships and mutually beneficial agreements, rejecting further exploitation and theft. What is truly astonishing is the Western media's apparent ignorance of these developments, as if they prefer to keep the public in the dark. Contrary to some expectations, the Ukraine conflict has not escalated into a global WW3 but has instead become a cold conflict with repercussions felt across the world beyond Ukraine's borders. The shifting geopolitical dynamics are reshaping the landscape, and it's imperative to acknowledge and understand the emerging realities.

According to Christoforou France is preparing airstrikes.
Germany is OK with it. Which is weird. They Scholz regime
is against nuclear energy but support France to keep the Uranium
imports going, propably the dirtiest part of the whole nuclear
energy sector.

A typical Scholz. 

Looks like some African states in the region are now threatening intervention.
While Burkino Faso and Mali are stating that any attack on Niger will be an attack on them.

If the coup was Russia's idea, then it miscalculated. Last thing the region needs is a massive military confrontation involving multiple countries and with one side backed by Russia/China and the other backed by the West. Such a conflict wont go anywhere or work to anyone's favour, it will just cause destruction. Russia also has no reason to priorize relations with one group of African countries at the cost of ruining them with others, or to be seen as having had a hand in such a mess

In this scenario Russia should step out in favour of a political solution that saves face and guarantees security for all concerned, but puts that deposed president back in power. Regrettable, but that's just how it is.

ALAMO wrote:I see the opposite.
This type of declaration can cool down some froggy heads. They have already denied plans of military intervention. Interestingly is the fact, that both Egypt and Algeria denied joining sanctions against Niger, with Algeria sending signals that they might join the show if someone will be fool enough to intervene.
We see the final end of the French colonial system, and that is for sure.

African countries themselves have to carry this crusade. If they punk out and start making stupid statements about intervening via the African Union or via that French controlled organization - then French rule won't be going anywhere and Russia can't help them or fight their battle for them
If however they organize and tell the West to back off in large enough numbers and isolate any local country unhappy with the results of the coup too, then of course Russia can assist with whatevers needed.

The people of Niger have spoken. They want a new leader. Now tell the west that there is a new reality in Niger and
that they have to live with it. Like the rest of the world had to do with Libya. Or Iraq.

Maybe time to send some Buk, Tor and Pantsir systems to Mali.
Manned by volunteers and locals, of course. 

Hole wrote:Maybe time to send some Buk, Tor and Pantsir systems to Mali.
Manned by volunteers and locals, of course. 

I would send some Mig-29s, mi-8s and Hinds, their airforce is paper thin.

Bit odd for such a large country.

Because the western colonial powers want it that way. Free reign in the air if they want to.

You can buy Pantsir on Aliexpress. Some say so.

What´s the chance of buying some MiG-31´s there?