nomadski Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:16 pm
So most here agree that the war is not at a point of stalemate . I used the term , with the meaning in mind of a static frontline . This aspect seems the most important in military terms . If two sides manage to destroy various amounts of hard and soft targets , yet the frontlines remain static , then neither can say that they have won . Winning in war is ultimately a matter of gaining territory . The side that looses territory , looses the war . New borders are decided , when no side can make territorial gains .
For armies that are national and local in character , or organic with strong grass roots support , then loss of territory , together with fertile agricultural land and factories and an available local population to serve in the Army , brings about a loss in power . For armies that are not local or national , are proxy forces , then there is less impact on relative force strengths . In this case , territorial loss by them will not quickly diminish or defeat them .
The loss of manpower will probably affect both types equally . Cause confusion and disorganization at the frontlines . If the details of losses published are correct , then the Ukrainian loss of at least 300,000 dead and at least three times as many injured and unable to return to fighting , is a significant loss . This should by now have allowed for Russia to make constant advances and territorial gains , as and when a Ukrainian front collapses .
Yet we do not see this . Are Russians waiting until the entire Ukrainian male population is turned into fertiliser , before they walk gently across , holding umbrellas to ward off , the Sun and the rain ? Are there no tactical advantages to be gained , by holding territory ? River Estuaries ? Mountain passes ? Factories ? Rail and Road ? No war is fought in this way !
To my mind , the problem is not that the numbers of Ukrainian losses are wrong , or that Russia lacks in weapons . I think , it is to do with a state of mind , a kind of thinking that delays action . A lack of urgency , or even willingness to even take low casualties ?