Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

flamming_python wrote:

GarryB wrote:I was scorned because he is an expert in the field... but even before the conflict you could see the little anti Russian barbs in his work that revealed him to be a hater.

I was evident in most western books on the Soviet Union during the cold war too.

The most hillarious thing I found is that when you search for HI Sutton, Google gives you the answer 'internet personality'

Not author, not naval expert, or military historian - but internet personality. Like pick whatever your favourite YouTuber is internet personality

And that goes for all of them

yeah Russian subs are so HUGE because they cannot miniaturize, USS carriers are so massive, because only the USA can afford such large capable ships (targets). lol.

So most here agree that the war is not at a point of stalemate . I used the term , with the meaning in mind of a static frontline . This aspect seems the most important in military terms . If two sides manage to destroy various amounts of hard and soft targets , yet the frontlines remain static , then neither can say that they have won . Winning in war is ultimately  a matter of gaining territory . The side that looses territory , looses the war . New borders are decided , when no side can make territorial gains .

For armies that are national and local in character , or organic with strong grass roots support , then loss of territory , together with fertile agricultural land and factories and an available local population to serve in the Army , brings about a loss in power . For armies that are not local or national , are proxy forces , then there is less impact on relative force strengths . In this case , territorial loss by them will not quickly diminish or defeat them .

The loss of manpower will probably affect both types equally . Cause confusion and disorganization at the frontlines . If the details of losses published are correct , then the Ukrainian loss of at least 300,000 dead and at least three times as many injured and unable to return to fighting , is a significant loss . This should by now have allowed for Russia to make constant advances and territorial gains , as and when a Ukrainian front collapses .

Yet we do not see this . Are Russians waiting until the entire Ukrainian male population is turned into fertiliser , before they walk gently across , holding umbrellas to ward off , the Sun and the rain ? Are there no tactical advantages to be gained , by holding territory ? River Estuaries ? Mountain passes ? Factories ? Rail and Road ? No war is fought in this way !

To my mind , the problem is not that the numbers of Ukrainian losses are wrong , or that Russia lacks in weapons . I think ,  it is to do with a state of mind , a kind of thinking that delays action . A lack of urgency , or even willingness to even take low casualties ?

Lukashenko was claiming recently that NATO forces are ready to cross into the Ukraine at any moment, and that when Russia breaks the front line, the Polish army will advance into the Ukraine

This is probably the thinking behind Russian moves and has been from the start. They want to have every possible advantage in the eventuality of NATO entering the conflict and Russia ending up in a conventional war with them. And certainly reducing the Ukrainian military and the Ukraine's capability to sustain a war-effort before anything like that happens would be exactly such an advantage. As then it would just be the incoming NATO armies that Russia will have to worry about. Other advantages include ramping up their military industries, ammo production, international partnerships first and preparing their population for a wider conflict but this has all been done by now.

If that is their thinking , then they are wrong . Russia will not win a conventional war against Ukraine + NATO . Russia , if it keeps up with offensives to liberate the Russian populations , through conventional war , has a chance to win . Putting all effort into Ukraine , forgetting all other borders and fronts . Any other attack by NATO , direct or indirect , in Ukraine or elsewhere , is answered by Nukes . A conventional war between Russia and NATO , even in Ukraine , will last at best 24 hours , before it turns Nuclear anyway .

Here is an insightful analysis about the recent events. The first few minutes are about the attack on Crimea.

While the Ukrainian strike on the dry dock in Crimea is wildly overblown, it isn't true that the submarine they hit was old. The Rostov-on-Don submarine entered the fleet in 2014 and is a modernized 636.3 submarine. i.e. a Kilo with upgraded electronics. While the Kilo design itself might be claimed to be obsolete at this point, the Lada still has not entered service and even that seems to lack either AIP or Lithium-ion batteries.

lancelot wrote:While the Ukrainian strike on the dry dock in Crimea is wildly overblown, it isn't true that the submarine they hit was old. The Rostov-on-Don submarine entered the fleet in 2014 and is a modernized 636.3 submarine. i.e. a Kilo with upgraded electronics. While the Kilo design itself might be claimed to be obsolete at this point, the Lada still has not entered service and even that seems to lack either AIP or Lithium-ion batteries.

What are you smoking ? 2014 isn't old.

Those subs were playing with nato anti-sub forces in Med sea.

It also fires kalibr.

It's a huge loss. But looking at the pics it seem only the front was destroyed so it can always be repaired if they put money.

PhSt wrote:

It's a huge loss. But looking at the pics it seem only the front was destroyed so it can always be repaired if they put money.

Russia needs to set a procurement policy that any lost unit in this SMO will be replaced with 3 more units of the same class.

As dumb as their red lines...

They should act like they were in a fucking war and protect the bordering areas. Infiltration in Belgorod, Awacs overflown by drones in Belorussia, drone attack on unprotected Tupolevs not far from Ukraine, letting those ships in the open...

They diserved every loss they had with their dumb attitude.

Isos wrote:

lancelot wrote: it isn't true that the submarine they hit was old. .

What are you smoking ? 2014 isn't old.

.

that's exactly what he said

My bad. Sorry. The answer can be directed to the ones above saying it's old.

Hole wrote:

Seems that the brightest minds of the western shitstream are not sure yet if one may use the sea to hide a submarine.

It´s a well known fact that the Brits are hiding their subs in the scottish highlands. 

actually right next to our largest city Glasgow, they are not wanted here

PhSt wrote:...Because of Finland's entry into NATO, Russia needs to take over ALL of Ukraine. Rusify the population and make it a permanent part of Russia.

Not viable and failed once before already

They need territory not population, it's harmful and redundant

Get rid of them and be done with it, they have been delaying the inevitable since 1946

flamming_python wrote:Lukashenko was claiming recently that NATO forces are ready to cross into the Ukraine at any moment, and that when Russia breaks the front line, the Polish army will advance into the Ukraine

This is probably the thinking behind Russian moves and has been from the start. They want to have every possible advantage in the eventuality of NATO entering the conflict and Russia ending up in a conventional war with them. And certainly reducing the Ukrainian military and the Ukraine's capability to sustain a war-effort before anything like that happens would be exactly such an advantage. As then it would just be the incoming NATO armies that Russia will have to worry about. Other advantages include ramping up their military industries, ammo production, international partnerships first and preparing their population for a wider conflict but this has all been done by now.

This is EXACTLY what you want to happen

Let them come in and light them up

Preferably with nukes, two stupid taboos torched with one stone

Peace and security guaranteed for decades, maybe even a century

Isos wrote:...What are you smoking ? 2014 isn't old.

Those subs were playing with nato anti-sub forces in Med sea.

It also fires kalibr.

It's a huge loss. But looking at the pics it seem only the front was destroyed so it can always be repaired if they put money.

They did nothing important since the war started and Med has been closed off anyway

Order new one, tell the shipyard to make it snappy and tell the Navy to shut the f*ck up with complaints and take what they are given

PhSt wrote:

Another good reason why Ukrainian cities needs to get firebombed. These machines will be hosted in civilian buildings with the hope that Russia will not hit them. Powerplants needs to be leveled too to deprive the Nazis of heat for the winter. The Special Extermination Operation should aim for more Ukrainian and NATO casualties.

If these printers really can do this there's no way in hell USA would be giving them away

But it wouldn't be the first time US gov did something stupid

Plus it would change nothing, just keep killing 404s and ignore distractions, they had cratering birthrate even before the war

Only way Russia loses this is if they choose to

I was laughing at this until i saw the 100km-200km range claims.

It is a war of wills now as much as anything else. Problem is young boys are paying the price for these power games. Neocons/neolibs must lose. This is what I do not understand about pro Ukraine idiots. If they can force a peer nation to change its government and essentially dismantle it, they will do it to China and everyone else.

Russia has all the capabilities to succeed. They are in a tough spot and I do not envy them. But now they must fight or falter. With psychos like ours in power I fear that we may be targeted directly after this conflict. All enemies of the regime. And then the world will watch and see if we resist or falter.

PapaDragon wrote:

Isos wrote:...What are you smoking ? 2014 isn't old.

Those subs were playing with nato anti-sub forces in Med sea.

It also fires kalibr.

It's a huge loss. But looking at the pics it seem only the front was destroyed so it can always be repaired if they put money.

They did nothing important since the war started and Med has been closed off anyway

Order new one, tell the shipyard to make it snappy and tell the Navy to shut the f*ck up with complaints and take what they are given

the subs have been launching cruise missiles and if you think about it, its the best platform for element of surprise. No one can observe where the sub is until the missiles are in the air.

thegopnik wrote:I was laughing at this until i saw the 100km-200km range claims.

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1703080949213503761

They could have made a HIMARS ripoff without the hassle of copying the whole truck (unless the truck is the only thing that this has in common with HIMARS?)


Also, I'm loving the Hunger Games vibe in the background, they have arena and flags and everything

May the odds be ever in your favor