Russian special military operation in Ukraine #50

Big_Gazza wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Ukraine's manpower is not depleted

Still believing fairy tales?  You must be busy writing your Christmas list to Santa as well. Better get it done quickly as the elves are slow to carry mail to the North Pole and the old man is busy making gifts in his workshop...

Your emotionally fueled response does nothing but show your lack of understanding, Ukraine isn't out of men and far from it. If they where at such a breaking point, you would be able to see russians take any gains, but they are still bogged down and will be for months.

So cry me a river, that the reality outside of the words you type on this forum is different.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

I have no idea where you are getting your information from but the sources are bad, no one within any real position of power in the US Gov is calling for a Minsk 3, I would know if they are

Ukraine's manpower is not depleted

They are fully depleted

That is the main worry right now

The TIME magazine article with Zelensky was meant to show the divide between two camps in Ukraine to the American elite

One backs Zelensky, and the TIME article devoted itself to showing this camp, although the article itself was unflattering, it painted this picture of a kind of desperate man, one who has become a liability to the west itself

On the other hand, Oleksiy Arestovich, and Valeriy Zaluzhny are postulated as some kind of anti heroes to the western audience

Both of their tones are conciliatory and favor some kind of freezing of the conflict

The voices of both Arestovich and Zaluzhny, highlight a total depletion of manpower

In fact the main argument for Minsk 3 is the lack of manpower to stave off Russian advances across the front

France 24, NBC, ABC, and PBS have jumped on the gravy train:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/ukraine-official-says-cant-properly-154209789.html

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231104-we-re-losing-ukrainians-reel-from-war-chief-s-stalemate-warning

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/western-officials-suggest-ukraine-consider-peace-talks-russia-2023-11%3famp

All the media outlets are saying the incontrovertible truth: Ukrainian manpower is depleted and peace talks must be made in the interim

Now a power dispute is breaking out as Zelensky censures his general Staff and privately berates the biden administration sources who are continuing to talk of defeat, and manpower shortages :

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/04/world/europe/zelensky-rebuke-general-zaluzhny.html

For Russia, the concern is simple, these divisions and cracks in the Ukrainian elite, do in fact signal that Ukraine has been attrited into a strategic level defeat

But now, how does Russia exact maximum profits? By keeping the war going

Minsk 3 will be offered by the west, and the Ukrainians favored by Zaluzhny, and Arestovich as they try to rescue what they can

But Russia will probably back Zelensky, and give him intel through back channels to keep him alive, or prevent any assassination or change of power, which could bring a peace deal to the table

It's better to fight Ukraine as it is now, depleted of equipment and manpower, then to allow the west to give them time to recover and rearm

A strategic defeat has been inflicted, and if Russia can keep Ukraine on this path, it will recuperate its sphere of influence to project into Europe

US officials are concerned that Ukraine is running out of troops and have hinted at peace talks with Russia, report says

Western officials have suggested Ukraine consider peace negotiations with Russia, a report says.

US officials fear that Ukraine is running out of troops, while Russia seems to have an endless supply.

They are also concerned about continuing to send aid, especially as focus shifts to the Israel-Hamas war.

Western officials have begun broaching the topic of holding peace negotiations with Russia with the Ukrainian government, a report says.

The conversations have included broadly considering what Ukraine might need to give up to secure a deal, one current senior US official and one former senior US official familiar with the discussions told NBC News.

These discussions have begun because of growing fears among US and European officials that the war has reached a stalemate and that it will be won by whoever can hold out the longest, the officials told the outlet.

Ukraine's long-anticipated counteroffensive began five months ago and has achieved negligible gains.

"Manpower is at the top of the administration's concerns right now," one source said.

While the US and allies can provide Ukraine with weapons, "if they don't have competent forces to use them, it doesn't do a lot of good," they said.
------

The rest of the article is cope, they say 200k Ukrainians dead and then use 300k Russians as a backup to the true claims of Ukrainian manpower having been eroded into dust

But notice all this flurry of messaging coming after the op-ed penned by Zaluzhny

Indeed the west is making a play here to freeze the conflict

US officials can mean anything, so thats here-say at best. It's not identifying who they are or could be hence chances are its bogus or is someone so low down the totem pole, anyone who has an actually say will not give a shit about their opinion.

Unless you give names nothing can be taken seriously.

As for the manpower argument, these are relying upon more here-say from third party sources which don't make them reliable.

Infact if even half of such claim was true, Russia would have been at Odessa by now.

There is one easy way to tell how much truth such claims contain. "What is the situation on the ground?"

Ukraine still have reserves, they have the ability to switch out weakened divisions with full ones to refresh those divisions etc.

So no, Ukraine isn't out of men, if they whereas Russia would not have stated "we are prepared to fight for ten more years"

As Ukraine would have been able to be finished off this year.

Never trust information on the web, always take it with a grain of salt.

Sure if russia keeps fighting, eventually yeah, Ukraine will run out of men, but that day ain't today.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:US officials can mean anything, so thats here-say at best. It's not identifying who they are or could be hence chances are its bogus or is someone so low down the totem pole, anyone who has an actually say will not give a shit about their opinion.

Unless you give names nothing can be taken seriously.

As for the manpower argument, these are relying upon more here-say from third party sources which don't make them reliable.

Infact if even half of such claim was true, Russia would have been at Odessa by now.

There is one easy way to tell how much truth such claims contain. "What is the situation on the ground?"

Ukraine still have reserves, they have the ability to switch out weakened divisions with full ones to refresh those divisions etc.

So no, Ukraine isn't out of men, if they whereas Russia would not have stated "we are prepared to fight for ten more years"

As Ukraine would have been able to be finished off this year.

Never trust information on the web, always take it with a grain of salt

It is a point, made in general

About the state of the Ukrainian army

And they are both US and Ukrainian ones btw

Of course such sources will be unnamed, the risks involved pose political threats to every single party involved, including US and Ukrainian politicians as well as European ones as we saw Fico upset the establishment recently

But on the Ukrainian side we talk about the Army General chief of staff, which unequivocally stated that his manpower reserves were depleted

These are not voices in the corner anymore, or coming from some bozos on a forum

This is the tone of the political establishment, for whom the media expressed that the war was being won, and now who's opinion have categorically changed

Well watch Avdeyevka, as that falls towards the end of winter, we will see the remaining action shift to the last parts of Donetsk

Shoigu gave 2025 as the end of the SMO, well we could exactly see that timeline unfold, if they can maintain Zelensky and the pro war Ukainians , who are suicidal but fully suit the interests of Russia

There are already news articles about Zelensky questioning what Trump has to offer and the US elections are held in November 2024 and i think it takes 2 months until that elected president enters office to even start making changes. So I guess Zelensky is confident enough by 2025 to have enough manpower and resources to atleast hold off the russians from entering kiev. They are running out of manpower but what is the amount of manpower they have left? I wonder what Trump will agree on to what Russia's own peace plan would be which I am assuming the Russian general public wants the entirety of Ukraine for this amount of sacrifices.

Arkanghelsk wrote:The latest reports from NBC show that Ukrainian manpower is now fully depleted

All major US propaganda news sources from TIME, NBC, ABC, PBS are all going against Zelensky

Even France24 said Ukraine is out of manpower and they should make peace

I see US is taking sides with Arestovich and Zaluzhny to try to push a Minsk 3 deal

There are those in Moscow who would jump at the opportunity

Right now there should be the utmost done to preserve Zelenskys life, and to keep the war going

The west is going to want to get rid of him and freeze the war, Russia should not allow them to impose conditions especially when it is they who have lost the war

Yes and no.


Only in Poland there are currently at least around 500 000 adult Ukrainian males capable of bearing arms, and they tend to be of the pro-Banderist variety.

That does not include more of them in the other countries they fled to, and does not include the ethnic Ukrainians from Poland who have Polish citizenship, who tend to be very nationalist.


http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html



Question is are they willing to fight for their Banderist dream?

Much as it would be better than paedos like Biden, I think its unlikely Trump will win.
Too many Mexicans and the like flooding into America. The country has demographically changed. And halfwits think oligarchs like Bezos, Soros and the like are looking after the masses with their puppets in the Dumborat Party.

There's plenty of lowlives in the Reptilepublican Party too.

Trump or Kennedy could promise Russia a neutral Pukraine (along with Alaska and California) but an American political promise isn't worth shit. RUssia simply has to take what is Russia's and be strong enough to prevent future atrocities (eg coups in Kazakstan, Belarus, Baltic Nazism etc).

America doesn't do deals. It just gets frightened out of acting maliciously.
That is the ONLY way the nuclear treaties etc worked.

thegopnik wrote:There are already news articles about Zelensky questioning what Trump has to offer and the US elections are held in November 2024 and i think it takes 2 months until that elected president enters office to even start making changes. So I guess Zelensky is confident enough by 2025 to have enough manpower and resources to atleast hold off the russians from entering kiev. They are running out of manpower but what is the amount of manpower they have left? I wonder what Trump will agree on to what Russia's own peace plan would be which I am assuming the Russian general public wants the entirety of Ukraine for this amount of sacrifices.

The plan is not to move on Kiev as of yet, more things must be achieved:

1. Establish and hold a land bridge to Crimea - accomplished

2. Invade and dismantle the Donbass defensive system - in progress

3. Chase them from Donbass across the open steppe, across the left bank, and isolate them as they disperse - will commence after spring according to many analysts

4. Force a 2nd battle for Kiev - end of 2024

5. Move into the right bank of Ukraine - 2025

More or less this is the plan for the MOD and General Staff which Shoigu himself confirmed, the SMO was projected to achieve its goals in 2025

As the winter campaign to damage the electrification stations goes on - it will be less likely the average citizen of Ukraine will keep supporting fighting on unfavorable terms, and thus far we have not seen an insurgency in the south, so we have no reason to believe there will be much resistance once the Ukrainian military collapses in the donbass

Afzalov by the way was appointed as commander of the VKS for this precise campaign, after Surovikin, was promoted, or relieved (depending on what version you believe)

I do believe that what I called for, will be implemented by the VKS, not necessarily wide spread destruction of civilians as we see in Gaza

But certainly,  harsh measures to begin maneuver warfare against Ukrainian defenses, as Ukraine transitions into a stationary defense, and begins rebuilding its defenses after the collapse of the Kramatorsk agglomeration, and the Seversk cauldron

They will build new defenses, in the spirit of our own departed Surovikin

Lacking the concrete of Donetsk, you will see greater reliance on trench diggers, mining vehicles, and ATGM, as well as sector wide artillery in the spirit of WW1

The only problem for them, is that Russia will have why they did not - aviation, and a commander which understands combined warfare from aviation perspective,  he was of course an Aerospace officer,  not an army  general like Surovikin

Noone in the VKS liked to be under Armageddon, even if you don't read about it, the greatest insult was to have the Air and Space forces under some infantry officer

Notice even the VKS operations have improved from perspective of data integration (A50U + S400)

(30 + planes downed in one week)

Arkanghelsk wrote:The latest reports from NBC show that Ukrainian manpower is now fully depleted

Sorry, not true. Yet.
I have mentioned before, 25-year-olds are not even mobilized. Ukraine lifting restrictions for military-age men to leave the country, providing they will pay also doesn't show this.
If we are talking about quality manpower, then yes. Those ideologically motivated are a dying breed. Wait till they start calling in kids who are way less motivated and capable.



Food for some doomers, 3 SS/Scalp hits on Karakurt. Some eggsperts should rather wait before writting essays. Ayden especially who did 180... He said that shit wasn't even hit, now it's destroyed. We will see what Russia will do with it in a few months. It doesn't mean it's scrapped. FFS. Just wait before talking.

To TMA1....

Greetings to you my American friend.
The only part of Christianity that is standing on solid legs is Central and Latin America, everything else is sinking.
And I know that Western Europe and the white population in the USA do not like Latin America because it is not as "pure" and white as their countries are.
The fact that in the USA they write that their population is constantly increasing is a fact, but to the detriment of the white population.
Western Europe is at least on paper Christian, although decadence and debauchery have been present for decades.
Eastern Europe is not in that story, although the demographic picture is not good in that part of Europe either.
There are many "unresolved" border conflicts in Eastern Europe, and the culprits are the Westerners who do not care about the Poles or the Russians, but those Westerners would like to see as many Slavs die in mutual wars for the sake of Western interests.

I still think, maybe I'm wrong, that the biggest resource of a country is its population. That is why I gave the example of Nigeria.
One of the reasons I think so is the example of Kosovo, where we Serbs became a larger and larger minority after the Second World War.
The West used it to steal Kosovo from Serbia, although the same was not recognized by countries such as Russia, China and India. And I am sure that the migration of people from Africa to Europe will be bigger and bigger in the future.

I can and am on Russia's side, but Russia's biggest problem is demography. That is why I have already written a couple of times that the future is neither in the West nor in Russia, but in Asia. My head spins when I go to the skyscrapercity forum and see that Russians give English names to new projects as well. Is this normal at a time when Russians are again portrayed in the West as subhumans ? I don't think so.

Picture of the small missile ship "Askold"
The damage is undoubtedly great

Arrow wrote:

If Russia absorbed part of Ukraine and Belarus, they would have an additional 20 million people. So they would number over 170 millions.

The Russians don't need that shit anymore !
We Serbs have seen for 30+ years that the Ukroshitstans are not "brothers" with the Russians.
Some Russians do not see it even now.
I wrote and I don't want to go back to that topic, but the USSR and that hideous inferior bastard Lenin, who indirectly created that monstrous state, are to blame for all of that.

Regular wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:The latest reports from NBC show that Ukrainian manpower is now fully depleted

Sorry, not true. Yet.
I have mentioned before, 25-year-olds are not even mobilized. Ukraine lifting restrictions for military-age men to leave the country, providing they will pay also doesn't show this.
If we are talking about quality manpower, then yes. Those ideologically motivated are a dying breed. Wait till they start calling in kids who are way less motivated and capable.



Food for some doomers, 3 SS/Scalp hits on Karakurt. Some eggsperts should rather wait before writting essays. Ayden especially who did 180... He said that shit wasn't even hit, now it's destroyed. We will see what Russia will do with it in a few months. It doesn't mean it's scrapped. FFS. Just wait before talking.

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/17216000737111659

Ship still standing. Missiles missed the ship and only damaged it by hitting close to it.

Podlodka77 wrote:

Arrow wrote:

If Russia absorbed part of Ukraine and Belarus, they would have an additional 20 million people. So they would number over 170 millions.

The Russians don't need that shit anymore !
We Serbs have seen for 30+ years that the Ukroshitstans are not "brothers" with the Russians.
Some Russians do not see it even now.
I wrote and I don't want to go back to that topic, but the USSR and that hideous inferior bastard Lenin, who indirectly created that monstrous state, are to blame for all of that.

Its very clear that half the former Pukraine considers itself Russian. Same thing with most of Belarus. And about 1/3rd of Kazakstan or more should belong to Russia if u check out the recent history.

These people shouldn't be terrorised by the likes of McCain, Nuland, Banderites and similar vermin.

They are part of Russia, and most of them are on land that's been Russian for the past 1100 yrs.

And plenty of the Russophobes can be fixed. Or their children can. Just see how Chechens have seen the light and are now heroically fighting for Russia vs the Banderites.

I'm no idea why you have such a bizarre view against these people. Been watching too much EU controlled media?

Isos wrote:

Ship still standing. Missiles missed the ship and only damaged it by hitting close to it.

Yes, ship still floats, but the pictures of damage shows that 3rd was actually a hit. The one that caused visual damage in video.

Ayden wrote:Satellite images didn’t show any of the damage that can be seen in this video. The ship is destroyed. https://t.co/4NHx6AvLIY pic.twitter.com/LwJVhpsvRF

— ayden (@squatsons) November 6, 2023

I have no clue if it's destroyed or not, Ayden is not damage assesor of BSN.

But yeah, you can see the pattern what they are targeting.

To Firebird...

And where is that half of Ukroshitstans that supports Russia ?
If it were as you write, then there would be a civil war in Ukroshitstan, but it is not so.
Firebird, be realistic and realize for once that your story has no basis.


and something about "Askold"
The command bridge and probably all the electronic equipment on the ship was destroyed.
Everything below the waterline is probably intact including the engines.
It seems to me that the part with the UKSK launcher is also intact. In short, at least half of the money invested in construction will probably need to be reinvested.
Although I know some still praise these ships (as well as project 21631) I find them useless and better to invest in the Iskander-K.
No sonar and no anti-submarine component, just one fucking Pantsir and 8 missiles in UKSK.
Let them learn to build frigates and then let them talk about the navy.
I am afraid that Russia will have more losses like this because the West will also try with the F-16 to attack the Black Sea Fleet, whose biggest enemy is the closed swamp called Black Sea.

Reporting on the different battles taking place on the Donbass Front:

https://1rodina-ru.translate.goog/article/donbasskiy-front-posyolok-spornoe-na-severskom-napravlenii-pod-kontrolem-vs-rossii?utm_source=warfiles.ru&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Reporting on the different battles taking place along the Southern Front:

https://1rodina-ru.translate.goog/article/yuzhnyy-front-morpekhi-vs-rf-byut-vsu-na-dnepre?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

If I were Russia, I would transfer all project 636.3 submarines and project 11356R frigates temporarily either to the Baltic or to the Mediterranean, while I would transfer the small missile ships (projects 21631 and 22800) to the Caspian Sea.
Some may think that this is a cowardly act, but it is also the only way to save those ships and submarines.

Although I see that no one is writing about it, I am convinced that the West (USA) will use the F-16 aircraft precisely as a strike platform against the Black Sea Fleet, military installations in Crimea and in the border areas between Ukroshitstan and Russia.
The reputation of the already weak Russian navy is really bad. The Russians also contributed to this with their recklessness regarding the cruiser whose name I will not mention, the Saki airport, the overhaul of the submarine "Rostov" in the zone that was often exposed to attacks, and "Askold" proved that they learned nothing. Novorossiysk is the next goal of the West and the US, and I am sure of that.
The USA will give Ukroshitstan JASSM-ER if needed, and then Novorossiysk is not far either.