Russian special military operation in Ukraine #55

The fat lady is singing and they thought they could pull a superplay in the last second of the game but the score is 200 to 10 and even if they did manage to score it is still a lost game.

They thought if they could send in HATO troops to fill the role of rear area troops then those rear area troops could be sent to the front line.

The irony is that those rear area troops likely fought very hard to get and keep the jobs they have and have no interest in going anywhere near the front line... they are likely taking bribes and making a very good income in their roles and being thrown into the furnace of the front line will burn all the money in their pockets.

The new terrorism tactics will appeal to nazis, but most western citizens have experienced such mindless violence and I suspect most will be disgusted by this new tactic.. and also the fear that Putin might respond in kind will mean western security will have to be boosted too.

It is an act of desperation and it will just make the conditions of Kievs surrender worse and the terms with the west worse for kiev and the west.

Russia has been given more reason to increase ammo production and also more importantly to use more ammo to destroy the beast.

sepheronx wrote:I admit I am wrong.

But I find it also interesting though that 600K troops are just...sitting there doing nothing.  With that many forces against what Ukraine has, they could roll over remainder of Ukraine rather easily.  And only around 40K dead or injured, Russian forces are massive in the area.  What exactly are they waiting for? especially in Kharkov?

Well Zelensky also said Ukraine has about 800K troops right now around the entire country, which is believable, given their non-stop mobilization.

And I guess they are all on the main line of contact.

I have a pretty hard time believing that even if they had 50,000 troops north of Kharkov, that they would let Ukraine over the border or let them keep hitting Belgorod.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was like 2 brigades in Belarus and then 3 between Sumy and Kharkov.

START precise the number of missile carriers and their type.
Tu-95M was made in two variants - MS6 and MS16.
MS6 carried one internal revolver launcher for 6 Ch-55 missiles.
MS16 can carry 16 pcs of cruise missiles, 6 in bay and 10 externally, in 2x3 and 4x1 configuration.
Tu-160 carries 12 pcs on two revolver launchers.
New modification of Tu-95MSM is being observed with 4x2 external configuration, which would suggest that new standard for modernized pieces is 14 missiles.
Considering that Russia has about 80 strategic bombers at the moment, they can quite easily unleash a 1000-missile salvo in one flow.
The biggest war since Korea is carried out by Russia as extended maneuvers. Nothing more.

Edit : and in the heat of Krokus event, we have almost missed probably the biggest attempt to attack Crimea, carried with the help of dozens of drones, S-200 missiles, Neptunes, Storm Shadows, WD160 decoys, HARMS ...
All they have left. Up to 15 Ukro planes involved.
They have tried to hit two 775 ships.
One was probably slightly damaged by missile debris, as in both cases those were probably shoot down.
The only clear hit was at Black Sea Fleet command historical building, which is empty at the moment.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces unofficially report the arrival of new Zircon missiles.

Several missiles covered a distance of 580 km from Crimea to Kyiv in 3 minutes, which allows us to estimate the speed of the missiles as 11,600 km/h, Ukrainian public monitoring reports.

t.me/ForeignAgentIntel

Multiple hits across all Kiev.
Explosions started just after sirens, which indicates hypersonic missiles in use - probably P-800.
A wing of Mykhaila Boichuka St, 32 building was completely demolished.
Formally it is an art institute, but there are different businesses and activities at the same address.
Some rumors that civil defense was using it for operational headquater.
Tons of fully equipped and armed military personnel clearly visible at the location.

Two Patriot systems reportedly hit at Zhuliany airport.

An interesting part comes from Ukrainian reports.
Missiels were supposedly launched from Crimea and covered the >600 km distance in ... 3 min.

Almost twelve thousand km/h ...

BREAKING: Explosions Rock Kiev Two Minutes After Raid Alarms Sound

Initial reports indicate that "Zircon" missiles may have been deployed.

Targets reportedly included the Patriot systems at Zhuliany Airport, with unconfirmed reports suggesting that the building of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine was also hit.

Developing...

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1772187779557994697

Kiev's Zhulyany airport has been cleared of two Patriot air defense systems

From there, missiles often flew into the homes of peaceful Kiev citizens. Our Russian air force has corrected this misunderstanding. Don't thank us.

That means those troops have been rotated through Ukraine

Same happened in Syria. Nearly all russian pilots made a tour to get some combat experience.
That doesn´t mean that Russia used 1.000+ aircraft in that country. 

The biggest war since Korea is carried out by Russia as extended maneuvers.

Otherwise they would have send only 3 or 4 planes for that strike.
Combat experience for the flight and ground crews.

which indicates hypersonic missiles in use - probably P-800.

P-800 is just supersonic.

As others have said, Russia has had 600,000 troops in the combat zone but they rotate them through. It gives the troops valuable experience in combat (and allows them to be more effective in training new troops) and also keeps them well rested. A parallel of the Russian Army was seen in the air war in WWII where Japan and Germany (at least until 1943 had the best pilots and planes). However, Germany and especially Japan had a major problem. Their best pilots flew until they died and while their initally waves of pilots were elite, they had a terrible track record of training replacements. The Americans? We had pilots who were good enough (not as elite as the Luftwaffe and IJNAF and IJAAF, but good enough to accomplish the mission and come home alive) and while the Germans and Japanese pilots flew until they died, The Americans flew until they did so many missions and then they would return to the states, instruct new pilots in their techniques and then over time they'd cycoe back into the theater.

Russia's army is doing similar. They are learning how to fight and defeat NATO standard trained forces using NATO weapons. In a direct war with NATO, this will be invaluable experience. It also explains why Russia is minimizing the use of new technologies in this war (and has no problems using Iranian and North Korean weapons, some built on license). Russian troops are learning how to defeat NATO's state ofnthe art and is collecting all sorts of intelligence about these weapons, and they are minimizing NATO's ability to collect similar intel.

Lastly, lets talk about logistics. Artillery may be the king of battle, but logistics is the tyrant. As a modern combat force, Russia has to have a very large logistics tail. Food, fuel, hospitals, recovery and repair, truck to get supplies to the front and the wounded troops and damaged equipment back to the rear. So if Russia has 600,000 troops in theater, its possible, that's probably an effective combat force of only about 150,000 as you need at least 4 or 5 support personnel for every soldier you have in combat. Most conscript forces are probably not dumped at the front without training like the western corporate state controlled press likes to say. These are probably troops mainly doing reservist type work freeijg up more treops for the front. If we are going to see a drive on the Dniepr, Putin will need to call up about 3 or 4 times as many troops. So I think the plan is still to liberate Kherson, Zaprozhiye, Donetsk, and Lugansk completely and then dig new defense lines and let the meat come to Russia. As combat has shown Ukraine doesn't have all that much in terms of logistics. They are the ones sending meat in full frontal assault human wave assaults and getting mowed down.

Will Putin do a call up and finish the war? He might but we are not yet there. Part of the reason however, is he is still getting enough troops experience to train that mucy larger force.

It looks like script has been reloaded too early

Kyiv Post wrote less than an hour after attack started, that it was targeting SBU high-rank officials.

Putin will need to call up about 3 or 4 times as many troops. 

The number of troops depends on the number of enemy fighters.
There is no need for extra troops if your opponent has barely any fighters left over.

The British army use to work on the ratio of 3 to 1 so for example if we were facing a an enemy platoon they would send a company into to attack it. Obviously we never had such things as drones back then which is definitely a useful tool.

Last night Russia supposedly raised a huge bunch of bombers (well, ALCM carriers to be precise, as that's what Tu-95 and 160 are these days), but ultimately didn't launch anything.

Today came a surprise attack with hypersonics, out of the blue. Then it was quiet for a while.

Now it seems like a big strike is ongoing again though.

A particular strategy seems quite evident here. Raise the alarm first, observe what happens, then...

They have used this method multiple times.
Cheap Gerans are unleashed on targets, and Uko choice is to pass them all through or try to do anything.
And there are Iskanders and Tsirkons waiting for revealed emissions ...

in Lvov there were 3 waves of attack on airport according to TG (Gonzo? Cassad?) First gerans and kh-555/101 . Then some hit some were destroyed then Kinzahl (SBU/Nato personnel) then some time some rescue teams start evec and helping then again kiznahl in the same place...

Arkanghelsk wrote:
Macron wouldn't be shitting his pants over 100k troops

Rusian land forces numbers don't add up for a very long time.
And this gap is only getting higher and higher.
At the moment, there is a serious concern where are about half a mln men, heading steadily north of it.

There is a dumb answer and a smart answer.
The other is, they rotate.
Just take a look where is the Chechen Rosgvardia.
All over the place, including Belgorod region.

Which is the most striking difference between Russkie and Ukrs.
The others don't have this privilege, for a very long time.
They don't have time for training, that is why a cannon fodder is being poured into cattle and melts faster than they can restock the meat.
They really need 30-40k men a month, only to keep the numbers.
This is a rate of the freshly recruited rookies being burnt out.
And the number overall has nothing to do with Cocainsky's bullshit about a "million-strong army".
I can bet a golden rubel to a nut, that the overall number is <600k including all the structures.
There is only one reason why Russkie are proceeding so slow, and it is a politically motivated neglect for tricolor-covered coffins.
They will just keep this meat grinder running, as long as needed.

in short the new record in distance to take down Ukros...

В кадре кстати Orsis-СТ20 под калибр .375 CheyTac, с такой же винтовки побили рекорд Лобаевского "Сумрака" и поразили цель на дистанции в 5117м.

Below pic os Orsis ST-20



In the frame, by the way, Orsis-ST20 for .375 CheyTac caliber, with the same rifle they broke the record of Lobaevsky’s “Twilight” and hit the target at a distance of 5117m.

https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/154457