Russia-Pakistan New Dawn

* Russo-Pakistan relations a history of ups and downs

* Energy concerns vital to both

* Islamic militancy a common enemy

By Augustine Anthony

ISLAMABAD, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov arrives in Islamabad for a two-day bilateral counter-terrorism summit starting on Monday, as Moscow seeks to deepen ties with Islamabad.

While the Russians and Pakistanis are being tight-lipped over the discussions, here are some questions and answers about the state of ties between the old Cold War foes, now facing a common threat from Islamist militancy.

WHAT ARE THE UPS AND DOWNS OF PAKISTAN-RUSSIA TIES?

Pakistan and Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) were on opposite sides during the Cold War, when Pakistan allied with the United States the Soviet Union backed Pakistan's main rival, India.

The two were bitter enemies in the 1980s when Pakistan supported mujahideen guerrillas battling Soviet troops in Afghanistan. The Soviets were eventually forced to withdraw after 10-year occupation.

Moscow and Islamabad remained rivals during the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. Russia, along with Iran and India, backed the then Northern Alliance against the Taliban, who were recognised only by Pakistan and two other Muslim countries.

But ties have warmed since a 2003 visit by Pakistan's then military president, Pervez Musharraf -- the first by a Pakistani leader in 30 years. In recent years, Russia has pursued a more pragmatic foreign policy and sought closer ties with Pakistan.

But Moscow has been careful not to harm relations with Pakistan's traditional foe India, a major arms client.

WHAT ARE RUSSIA'S INTERESTS IN PAKISTAN?

Russia is concerned about Pakistan as a source of Islamist militancy and potential nuclear proliferation. It suspects that Muslim extremists in Pakistani sanctuaries on the Afghan border have links with militants from the North Caucasus and other Muslim Russian regions. Pakistan, therefore, could be an important plank in any Russian strategy to stem a the spread of militancy into and across ex-Soviet Central Asia.

One of Russia's specific concerns is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, an al Qaeda ally that has found sanctuary for years in Pakistan's tribal regions. It is one of the leading Islamist militant groups in Central Asia.

Russia is also jockeying for more regional influence ahead of an eventual departure, or at least drawdown, of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan. It needs better relations with Pakistan, seen as an important player in any Afghan settlement, because of its influence over senior Taliban leaders.

Security talks with Pakistan would also likely include cooperation against drug-trafficking, originating in Afghanistan and routed through Pakistan and Iran and on to markets in the Balkans and Europe. An increasing flow of Afghan heroin has contributed to a rise in HIV cases in Russia.

IS PAKISTAN A MARKET FOR RUSSIAN WEAPONS?

No one has yet said anything about any weapons sales to Pakistan being under consideration at the summit, but Russia aggressively seeks to boost arms sales abroad and has participated in defence exhibitions in Pakistan in the past.

Pakistan has relied heavily on the United States and China for much of its defence needs, but would like to diversify its suppliers. Any arms sales would require delicate diplomacy, however. Russia is a big supplier of weapons and a key ally to rival India.

Pakistan and India have fought three full-scale wars since independence in 1947.

WHAT ABOUT ENERGY INTERESTS?

Russia is interested in participating in a proposed gas pipeline leading from ex-Soviet Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan. Turkmenistan is trying to diversity export routes, long dominated by Russia, and has been cool to the idea of Russian involvement.

Moscow has in the past shown interest in a $7.6 billion gas pipeline project for export of Iranian natural gas to Pakistan, saying gas monopoly Gazprom was ready to help implement and finance the pipeline, expected to be completed by 2015. (Additional reporting by Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Editing by Chris Allbritton and Alex Richardson) (For more Reuters coverage of Pakistan, see: Pakistan | Reuters.com) (If you have a query or comment about this story, send an e-mail to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)

Q+A-Russian-Pakistan rivalry giving way to cooperation? - AlertNet

Well Russia is cooperating with NATO and the US, so why not Pakistan... where there is mutual benefits to such cooperation.

And of course India is looking more to the US for material though so far this is in areas where Russia was not able to compete... like the new Posiden aircraft where the Russians really don't have a fully operational replacement for their Il-38s ready and in production, and of course with the Il-76 no yet back in production and the An-70 still not being built they have spent ridiculous amounts of money on C-17s.

It Gives me great pleasure to announce the fact that pakistan's chief of military staff had paid a visit to the russian federation , a key player in pakistani politics and relations , moreover it is believed that strategic relations were discussed between the two countries.

First and Foremost i'd like to say that i am indeed a muslim , with Uzbek Pakistani and Kazakhstani roots , i know what the popular impression of pakistan is portrayed by the western media however it is not so , it is infact a rising and developing country , that has a very popular SCO/CSTO and russia sentiment that is slowly growing with time , And Pakistan is one of the nations that doesn't relate the Russian Federation to the soviet union , this opportunity has given a rise for a potential of new relations , in my personal view i do not support chechen independence , and im very sure that chechnya was infact a long arm project of the CIA circulating the fact that the CIA have been using the mujahedeen to train terrorist groups to aide in this unholy mission for long , Central Asia and the Middle east those of us who are true people the portrayers of truth and not western slave have and will always continue to support russia ,I've seen the west demean russia as racist intolerant and indifferent but i doubt this , for a country who's very national anthem states fraternity and brotherhood of multi ethnic people russia is a spyre for equality and peace , and Mother Russia truly deserves to be the queen of russia , for they have always supported their allies when the world was against them , Iran and Syria are examples of russian greatness in my eyes and the russian army , the spetsnaz are unmatched , Pakistan's politicians are unpopular and hated by the people , they are american puppets as with every middle eastern dictatorship , and there is no doubting the fact we too are an oppressed country , while others seek to go elsewhere my dream is to support russia , and in my efforts i've formed a popular sentiment and youth movement for Central asian Pakistani and Russo Chinese relationship and realizations.

I still believe russia is a super power and a good one , Vladimir Putin is a politician that i think the world should look up to a brilliant mind , we are no longer ready to become NATO dogs we want peace between ourselves and india this is the youth the new generation of pakistani's that have let out silent cheers from their homes as russia and pakistan dawned on new relations , We thank Russia for maintaining the security of all eastern nations from the tyranny of NATO , we thank their people for their unending support and fraternity , we thank them for not stereo typing us on popular sentiment , i hope this works out and pakistan joins the SCO , and i hope for a great future between our countries one that may form several benefits not only military but economic educational and commercial , This Message approves as a thanking for russia , we hope that we will not make the stupid mistakes of the cold war that our leaders will be smart enough to realize your role , Thank you Russia for granting this opportunity we shall be faithful and endearing comrades hopefully till the end of time

Спасибо товарищи, мы всегда будем поддерживать вас

روس شکریہ

The recent "resumption" in relations is definitely interesting- there is surely untapped economic and military cooperation between the two nations.

The whole SCO and Russian/Chinese alliance building in the region is an intriguing counterweight to boring old NATO .

It is good for Russia to have good relations with other countries, and good relations with Russia would also be good for Pakistan I believe.

A prolonged period of peace and trade in the region would be good for all countries involved.

George1 wrote:This might led India to a more close relationship with US however

Pakistan and India can work towards a peaceful relationship their opposition is and always will be history , now is the time for a young generation to rise and both india and pakistan's youth are dedicated to peace , they have a more France-Germany sort of relationship in the coming , besides why would the attack one another both countries have nuclear weapons and there's no reason for both India and Pakistan to fight , if one is accepted both will be i think the CSTO/SCO will resolve this matter , peace and diplomacy is a long process and Pakistan and India are working hand in hand to make it so , India could turn to the US but it's definitely not joining NATO in any circumstance .. hence Pakistan and India are extremely peace viable it's just a basic cultural and religious opposition that's fading away ,

This is 2012 not British India ,

Pakistan would be stupid for doing this to gain support against India , neither Pakistan or India will fight it would trigger an instant world war and in the end they'll both suffer , same happend with the Iran Iraq war , Iran's being suppressed Iraq is suppressed they don't want to get America involved in this , if russia supports pakistan than NATO would have just lost all it's major supply routes to afghanistan , in that case they could withdraw as early as late 2013.

Lets face it afghanistan was a failed war everything they did was a failure

Russia actually invaded for a purpose it was supporting a revolution

the americans wasted thousands of billions of dollars , had about 10,000 troops killed for no reason , and settled in countries that are still unstable and they are struggling to control ..

and they did it all for one man , that they didn't even need to invade a country for to kill ..

Pakistan is sick and tired of being a puppet state , it needs liberation and Russia is salvation to a country like that , China usually doesn't attack directly , but Russia has a strength factor , and when the Bear tells you to back off .. well there's nothing much a bald eagle can do ..

Russia and China have successfully stabilized many areas they can stabilize pakistan with ease , and bring peace to that region , where russia and china go security usually follows.

Better than NATO bombs..

and neither India nor Pakistan want NATO bombs ..

Ah we get all sorts in this forum don't we
It's becoming more and more like that bar in Mos Eisley

ahh people r so innocent that they really beleave that usa or russian would bring peace .. have u heard about the great game ? here is a link
to the pakistani who started the thread

Code:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9TpbDjbEug

no 2 countries love each other in this world .they just follow thier countries intrest . there is a russian intrest in pakistan russia doesnt want the tapi pipeline to continue.however russia is ready to finiance a new pipeline frome iran to india

This might led India to a more close relationship with US however

Sure, it might, but then India has always tried to diversify its sources for weapons, and at the moment appears to be looking at US contracts it would not previously have considered (or been offered).

The reality is that Russia and India have a good relationship, but it is hardly exclusive.

Russia sells to China, and if things improve with Pakistan it might start selling products to Pakistan too.

Better relations wont hurt India and to be honest better relations between Pakistan and India would be better for both countries and the region.

Cooperation on terrorism and drug trafficking should be good for the region.

As for selling military equipment to Pakistan...India seems to want better relations with the US and how much military equipment has the US sold to Pakistan?

GarryB wrote:Cooperation on terrorism and drug trafficking should be good for the region.

Terrorism and drug trafficking are the only two exports from Pakistan. It helps Pakistan earn billions.Why will Pakistan co-operate with Russia and shoot itself in the foot?

GarryB wrote:As for selling military equipment to Pakistan...India seems to want better relations with the US and how much military equipment has the US sold to Pakistan?

But that's not true. Over a third of Russia's arms export goes to India.

Last year(2013) India purchased $4.7 billion worth of arms from Russia, which is a 50 per cent jump from the 2012 figure.  This figure does not include Russian arms sales to Afghanistan that is financed by India.

http://sputniknews.com/military/20140206/187259759/Russia-Sold-47Bln-in-Arms-to-India-in-2013.html

The corresponding figure for US arms sale to India in 2013 was $2.1 billion.

Re better relations with the US,  neither has Russia said that it wants a hostile relation with the US.

Close to 2.5 million Indians work in the US. The remit billions of dollars back home which the Indian Government uses for a variety of purposes including purchasing arms from Russia. So, it is not in India's interest to destroy its relation with the US or any other country where India can export its services (mostly people).

As any other sovereign nation, Russia is free to sell arms to any country, including Pakistan(Russia sold around $22 million worth of arms to Pakistan last year).

However, every single country surrounding Pakistan is its enemy, viz, India, Iran and Afghanistan. More importantly these countries also purchase arms from Russia. So going forward they will pressurize Russia not to sell arms to Pakistan, especially those arms which they have already bought or plans to buy from Moscow.

Terrorism and drug trafficking are the only two exports from Pakistan. It helps Pakistan earn billions.Why will Pakistan co-operate with Russia and shoot itself in the foot?

We will see... the US was full of promises about resets and cooperation, but drugs in Afghanistan became a booming industry/

Pakistan is now offering cooperation, Russia would be stupid to ignore such an offer.

If it doesn't work out they can say they at least tried.

But that's not true. Over a third of Russia's arms export goes to India.

I didn't say anything to the contrary of that...

Re better relations with the US, neither has Russia said that it wants a hostile relation with the US.

It is pretty clear that the US does not want a partner in Russia, it wants a resource rich vassal... and as long as Yeltsin is not there and Putin is that isn't going to happen.

As any other sovereign nation, Russia is free to sell arms to any country, including Pakistan(Russia sold around $22 million worth of arms to Pakistan last year).

So what you are saying is that India has economic ties with the US and has every right to have those ties and that Russia has the right to sell equipment to Pakistan too... so what is the problem?

India does not seem that interested in several types of Russian equipment.. why shouldn't Russia sell those items to Pakistan?

Pakistani Ka-52s? Pakistani S-400s? China can buy them too.

Obviously Russia will keep in mind that India is a good customer and likely would not sell just anything to Pakistan.

India should also be aware that before these problems in the Ukraine there were lots of ties with the EU and US, but events led to many of those ties being cut... specifically from one end.

GarryB wrote:
Pakistan is now offering cooperation, Russia would be stupid to ignore such an offer.

Pakistan is also offering co-operation to Chechen militants as long as they act against Moscow.

Consequently, they will hand over Chechen militants to Russia in return for favors like arms and monetary incentives.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-birth-of-chechen-muslim-radicals/

Sounds more like blackmailing than co-operation.

GarryB wrote:India does not seem that interested in several types of Russian equipment..

Obviously India is not paying $4.7 billion for just ONE type of Russian equipment.

GarryB wrote:why shouldn't Russia sell those items to Pakistan?

Of course Russia can and it is. Last year itself Russia sold $22 million worth of arms to Pakistan, including Mi-17 gunships.

GarryB wrote:Pakistani Ka-52s?

   

Unlikely. They already have Apache's which the US gives them for free.

GarryB wrote:Pakistani S-400s?

Doubtful. They have signed a deal with China last month for the LY 80E and are negotiating for the sale of the HQ-9.  

GarryB wrote: China can buy them too.

It does not matter whether China buys or Pakistan. Whosoever buys will pass on the technology to the other, at least China will ask a price for it. For example, the Pakistani JF-17 is powered by RD 93 turbofan engine.

TAILPIECE : From one of India's most renowned Defense journalist



https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/510335059493019649

Sounds more like blackmailing than co-operation.

The difference between blackmailing and cooperation is that with cooperation both sides get something they want... blackmailing is generally one side getting benefit based on threats.

If cooperation get Russia access to some Chechen terrorists or even information that helps them get their hands on them why wouldn't they consider cooperation... the result would be separating Pakistan from the enemies of Russia, which would reduce their capacity to do Russia harm too.

Obviously it wont defeat the chechen opposition but it should weaken it.

Obviously India is not paying $4.7 billion for just ONE type of Russian equipment.

I don't follow what you mean.

What I was trying to say was that if India is interested in Apache helicopters and not interested in Mi-28NEs then why should India care if Russia offers Havocs to Pakistan?

If India don't want them, why should they care if they are sold to Pakistan?

Unlikely. They already have Apache's which the US gives them for free.

How long is the US going to be giving handouts for free to Pakistan?

Doubtful. They have signed a deal with China last month for the LY 80E and are negotiating for the sale of the HQ-9.

Just an example... India doesn't seem interested in most Russian SAM systems and seems to prefer to design their own. I would think it would be very unlikely that the Russians would sell Pakistan S-400, or even S-300. My point.... again... is that if India doesn't want a Russian technology why should the Russians decide to not sell it to anyone else?

the companies that make the products likely invest time and money to sell their products to India... if they are not successful should they just shrivel up and die?

It does not matter whether China buys or Pakistan. Whosoever buys will pass on the technology to the other, at least China will ask a price for it. For example, the Pakistani JF-17 is powered by RD 93 turbofan engine.

The RD93s in JF-17s are Russian made, so whether it is for domestic Chinese use or Pakistani use Russia is selling the product and making some money.

Regarding the JV quote, you have already said Russia is free to sell to anyone it wants, and I agree, except of course any product developed through a JV with India where India would get a say as to who can buy or not. Generally when selling to India or China the former gets pretty much the best the Russians will sell to any ally, while China tends to get not quite such access... the Su-30MKI and Su-30MKK are an example. If China wants MiG-29K2s it would get 8.2 ton thrust engines instead of more developed 9 ton thrust engines as an example that would be sold to India.

A Pakistani newspaper has reported that Russia has agreed to supply Pakistan with Mi-28 helicopter gunships and 48 MI-35 helicopters.

Interesting. Makes sense for Pakistan as both aircraft can use a lot of the same equipment and systems and their designs can be unified to a significant degree.

Both are rugged useful aircraft, with improved capabilities.

[quote="George1"]This might led India to a more close relationship with US however[/quote]
They( INDIA) already have gone but can not leave Russia to black mail western countries n their weapons spares.

India and Pakistan will next year become full members of SCO, what mean they will be allies in the same organization. Being a member of SCO alliance logically mean you have good relations with Russia and China. Maybe this membership will also help Pakistan and India to solve their conflict.

Sadly just being in an alliance together does not solve the problems one country has with another... look at Turkey and Greece.

I would like to see Pakistan and India being on much friendlier terms, but it is just too easy to hate and to take offense rather than to understand and forgive.

The sad thing is they are all the same people separated by lines on a map and their choice of religion... not that much different than if one group liked Pepsi and the other liked Coca Cola.

Terrible waste of time and money and energy really.