Russian population

Mir wrote:@Azi

I still don't see anything remotely close to the figures you and Karl mention from Rosstat?

You say you know the numbers and that the stats from Worldometer's wrong? The stats you show below from Rosstats seems to indicate 1.7 which is the same as from Worldometer? Interesting!

miketheterrible wrote:
Check dates.

As well, statistics uses their calculation method based upon birth rates per year and the numbers rosstat provides in that. So depends on how they calculate it between them. Statistica uses same sources.  Rosstat hasn't done a census since 2010, it's presumed it's tough estimates all around.

I know here in Canada a census is done every couple of years. Russia hasn't done one in a long time.

Death rates will decline in near future since baby boomer era starts to die off naturally.  The Covid scare did no help though for even the people who want children.

flamming_python wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Invite several million Europeans, Americans to live in Russia, if necessary declare for them their own national districts within Siberian regions

I don't see that many westerners moving to Russia until Russia can offer at least similar or better salaries than the Western countries.

The only source that Russia realistically can get more population from is the FSU countries. And frankly I don't want to see Russia get any more Uzbeks or Tajiks or Azeris that it currently has.

The only lasting solution for Russia's demographic challenges is to somehow get ethnic Russian women to have more babies. Right now there are very small number of women in childbearing age in Russia due to collapsed birth rate in the 1990s.  Those bigger age groups born in the 1980s are passing their fertile years and the younger age groups born in the 1990s and early 2000s are very small in comparison. Because of this there are smaller and smaller number of potential mothers in Russia each year.

And with these women in those small age groups having very few children themselves we are witnessing Russian demographics falling off the cliff. The population fell by more than 700,000 people last year alone. This year the decline could be even bigger. We are going back to 1990s.

I can see a whole bunch of people from Europe and America running to Russia from the Globalhomo craziness and racial tensions. Mainly traditional and rural-minded people. Let them buy some cheap land in Siberia, off they go. Salaries are not a problem, neither is even the language, if their ambitions are just to have their own farmstead and be left to their own devices.

FSU countries are a constant source. If anything I'm kind of more worried about getting more Ukrainians as opposed to Uzbeks, Tajiks and Azeris; they could potentially try to sell out Russia much as they did their ancestral homeland. At the very least I know some Ukrainians here who have very anti-Putin views.

Imports can also happen from the student population as I mentioned. Russia at the moment is in something like 6th place worldwide by the amount of foreign students - albeit most of them are from FSU countries as well. This is set to expand over the next few years owing to massive investments into many huge new university campuses and so on.

And about raising fertility rates of Russian women - of course that is the main thing. Along with lowering mortality rates. I've already talked about how.

GarryB wrote:Over population is a problem in itself... it is only a matter of time before issues like pollution including the enormous mass of rubbish and sewerage in the worlds oceans become the big next problem and part of the solution for that problem and also the effects on the worlds food supply and the worlds fresh water supply will be population reduction.

When farms were mainly run with manual labour then large families made sense... especially when the mortality rate was high, but these days the majority of people in the west living in cities... most more than 70%, so the need for big families has gone and in fact children are a financial burden on a couple.

Pretty soon the addition of artificial beings is going to massively complicate things... having one kid to look after you in your old age makes sense, but having one probably means a spoiled brat who doens't want to give up years of their life looking after you... or what if they get hit by a bus and killed, so having a couple of kids might seem a better choice, but there are no guarantees.

The days when robots start to take over... and I don't mean sci fi robots that you can't tell are not human, but a simpler robot that can carry things and hold things and measure things... in many ways electric scooters for old people give them mobility and are a type of robot assistant already.

The Japanese are so advanced with such robots because of their aging population...

An ageing population and an educated one seems to create a situation where people start living more isolated lives... they can't rape or murder you through your phone...

jhelb wrote:Germany had record number of births this year. But guess what ...most of these kids were born to colored immigrants like Africans and Asians.

This is not something that should be tolerated in Russia. Already cities after cities across Russia are being filled up by Central Asians. These immigrants tend to have very high birth rate.

miketheterrible wrote:I think Russia's population will stagnate. Not grow but not decline.  It will mostly grow due to migrants coming in. While its been mostly post Soviet states, we may see an inflow from non former Soviet states whom are more interested in Russia's mix of concervative and liberal values while not being insane like it is here in the west

Regular wrote:Azeris, tadjiks and Ukrainians shouldn't be welcome in Russia at all. I know they do dirtiest and low paid jobs mostly, but they bring so much crime and their own country problems in a baggage with them. Especially Ukrainians. Even the ones who hate Russia come there to work and with their presence alone they pose a national threat.

Also, no Euros or Americans, they will bring their disgusting globohomo with them, even the ones running away from it are tainted. Even political dissidents there are just different shade of GH. Not to mention that westerners have terrible genes (inbred brits, irish and southern Americans), they are not suited to cold weather, their health is compromised by GMO and fast foods. To be honest, it would be burden and enormous security risk to keep them. Imagine how easy it would be for CIA to infiltrate there or use NATO/EU/USA pressure to bully Russia by claiming that their rights are infringed and etc.

Plenty of Russians live abroad that are pro-Russia, not just liberals. Also, I know plenty of liberals who as the time went changed their thinking (it seems that allegiances change with the age and maturity and it seems that homesickness is a special thing for Russians) I think Russia should create a Russian card that would help expats to come back, give them some social support and it would be much cheaper than moulding some westerner fed on McDonalds grub to acclimatise to Russia too.

And to raise the fertility - Russia needs to ban all non-health/rape related abortions and then promote anti-alcohol campaigns. Culture of drinking is still quite bad and still can be improved.

par far wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I think Russia's population will stagnate. Not grow but not decline.  It will mostly grow due to migrants coming in. While its been mostly post Soviet states, we may see an inflow from non former Soviet states whom are more interested in Russia's mix of concervative and liberal values while not being insane like it is here in the west

I hope to god that Russia stays away from immigrants( I read on the Stalker Zone, that when Russia locked down and closed the borders and sent most of immigrants home), that the crime rate in Russia went down. And I think the government saw this.

I think the Russian population will increase because the Russian government has made so many positive changes in helping raising families. The free hot meals in schools, tax breaks for large families(I like what Hungary is doing, if you have 3 or more children, you pay little taxes), support for single mothers and fathers and various other things, on top of what was already in place.

I hope things are taken a little further and parents that 3 or more children are given discount on flying inside Russia, this way the large families can have vacations and Russian tourism will get a boost and it encourages people to have large families.

China has the best immigration policy, it is amazing, how fast they can get their own people to have babies and it is amazing how fast they can lock things up immigration wise.

The west is justing going down the toilet, maybe it is meant to be this way.

kvs wrote:

par far wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I think Russia's population will stagnate. Not grow but not decline.  It will mostly grow due to migrants coming in. While its been mostly post Soviet states, we may see an inflow from non former Soviet states whom are more interested in Russia's mix of concervative and liberal values while not being insane like it is here in the west

I hope to god that Russia stays away from immigrants( I read on the Stalker Zone, that when Russia locked down and closed the borders and sent most of immigrants home), that the crime rate in Russia went down. And I think the government saw this.

I think the Russian population will increase because the Russian government has made so many positive changes in helping raising families. The free hot meals in schools, tax breaks for large families(I like what Hungary is doing, if you have 3 or more children, you pay little taxes), support for single mothers and fathers and various other things, on top of what was already in place.

I hope things are taken a little further and parents that 3 or more children are given discount on flying inside Russia, this way the large families can have vacations and Russian tourism will get a boost and it encourages people to have large families.

China has the best immigration policy, it is amazing, how fast they can get their own people to have babies and it is amazing how fast they can lock things up immigration wise.

The west is justing going down the toilet, maybe it is meant to be this way.

The TFR increase between 2000 and 2020 was the direct result of the improvement of living conditions in Russia.   It was not driven
by immigrants or Muslims or some other trope.    The drop over the last year is directly related to Covid-19.  The TFR is the only thing
I would look at since the mortality variations mean nothing.   Longevity in Russia has gone up since the 1990s.   Men live 70 years on
average after living only 58 years in the mid-late 1990s.   The longevity progression is clear and is also driven by improving conditions.
So the death rate will drop off while the birth rate will not.    Ideally a TFR of over 2 is needed, but 1.82 was moving towards 2 and
I think it will resume this trend.  

I think Hungarian style tax breaks for young families are needed.   Crank up the taxes on corporations and resource exports to offset
any income tax reductions.

ALAMO wrote:
Russia uses several targeted tools to benefit families with children, the most important being maternity capital.
The thing is played in lots of countries, the only thing that amazes in Russia, is its value.
It was started in 2007, with 250k RUB for every second child, and raised on a yearly basis. In 2020, however, a big change was applied to the program, and every single child gets this payment, too, totaling 466k RUB and rising, plus there was additional payment for any next one. This year, it is 5.5k EUR for the first, and additional 1.9k EUR for second one, and any that follows.
Maternity leave is an obvious thing for all civilized countries, so probably need to be explained to Muricans only
When you register the fact of pregnancy, there is a one-time additional benefit.
There is a monthly regular child benefit for the first 18 months.
There are special assets applied to any child that starts education.
There are special assets applied to any family with children to pay the interests of the mortgage loan.
Russia is a social welfare country, with tools and assets applied to improve the quality of living for all its citizens.
And this is a general approach that Putin underlines each and any time when talking about government policy.

ALAMO wrote:We should consider the logic behind big families first.
It was all about manpower. The biggest families were in the countryside because farming required all hands possible.
A secondary cause is religion, with its influence on sexual life and sexual manners, anticonception etc.
Both causes are more or less gone. The countryside population relocated to the cities, so the pressure for manpower was decreased either.
The sexual revolution put an end to church domination in people's bedrooms.

Depopulated villages is in fact an effect, not a cause. In all the advanced world, people had a tendency to relocate to bigger centers. There are empty villages all over any country in Europe, not yet Russia. Take a look at Italy's struggling to repopulate some areas. They are selling countryside homes for 1 euro, in Toscany, only to encourage people to live there. I saw that villages, full of old, decomposing homes. Just the same is in Spain, Germany ... on the Rugia Island who is left, is a pensioner. Sassnitz lost half of its population since the reunification of Germany.

You are probably right, that we may witness some changes here, due to the pandemic influence on people's lives. Maybe there will be a revival of simple country living, less focused on material matters? Maybe people will decide to live in wooden barns, like in Murica, instead of building multiple generations' brick&concrete houses?

The housing issue is an extremely crucial factor in this decision-making process. But only one of them.
The 4-day working week would be a huge difference here.
So is the accessibility to the kindergartens, schools etc. I saw a documentary about the school living of the Yakutia tribes, and it was a quite an interesting to experience. Kids are picked up on Mondays, sometimes by a helicopter , and located for a working week in dormitories. On Fridays afternoon, flying back to their homes and yurtas.

The stability of the system is one of the very important factors, too. In well-educated societies, people do consider several factors before making a decision.

Every single issue here, is a number in equation. As we may see, this equation has not been solved yet in all rich&well-being countries.

ALAMO wrote:To be honest, betting on immigration is not a bad solution to start with.
Russia has a quite deep reservoir to dig in - it is a Russian-speaking minority from ex-SU states.
I guess that would be 50+ mln people potential.
Of course, they are not all interested in immigration, but if you apply an effective campaign, it can be an easier goal than changing the family structure.

When I was doing research for immigrant labor, I was surprised by two factors. The first one, the fact that Russia is the biggest immigrant labor market in Europe, surpassing Germany by approx. 20%. The second one, how hard it was to find the data. It would be actually impossible for someone, who does not speak Russian. It is being done by purpose. To admit that more migrants run the Russian economy than in Germany is a blow to the political narration. "Russia produces nothing", so they obviously can't need a 12+ mln immigrant labor, do they?
This immigrant work power is another possibility, but there is a hatch. Most of them are people from *stan republics, who barely integrate. Only some of them are smart enough to educate the Russian system, while the waste majority are OK with taking less paid, harder jobs that require no other skills rather than manual ones.

Russia is playing that quite smart I must say.
New immigration law requests living in the areas once influenced by Russia, speaking Russian, and knowledge of Russian cultural code. That is literally the whole of the Soviet Union, plus most of Poland if one is to be precise.
Now, they are taking active measures with fighting illegal immigration, and diasporas - as the diaspora existence alone proves, that they don't want to integrate into the society.
That should form an interim solution either.
If you combine that with the political stabilization, improving economy, social welfare country as Putin defined it, the scale of progress, educational&health issues ... Russia would be really the last European country to be worried about.

flamming_python wrote:

So Russia has to focus on its existing population and figuring out why its and European birth rates in general, have decreased so much.

Mir wrote:BTW - what is the position regarding non-Russian speaking people wanting to move to Russia?

flamming_python wrote:

Also, once you get citizenship, you can invite some of your family members to the country. That's another way of getting into the country, have a relative who's a Russian citizen or marry a Russian citizen.

flamming_python wrote:

Citizens of some non-Russian speaking countries (e.g. Cuba) are eligible to stay in Russia for quite a long period of time (I think 3 months) on just a tourist/visit visa, which is enough time to basically find employment in a specialist sector and then have the company help you get a work permit. Or just go across the border to another country when the visa period is up, and then come back in on a fresh visa. Lately I've been meeting some Cubans here in St. Petersburg who are emigrating from a bad economic situation at home. One guy is trying to join his family across the border in Finland.

For citizens of the rest of the world, you'll probably have find work at a Russian company first and then apply for a work permit, or start doing business in the country or with the country and have that be your springboard.

There's a YouTube channel of an Australian family who moved to Russia and were helped out by the governor of Novosibirsk region to get permanent residency. However in their case the family has been coming to Russia for 10 years already to take part in construction work and other projects, so they already knew some of the language and had some previous documents already.

For young people the best bet is to study at a Russian university. If you attain a 'red diploma' at the end of your studies (an honour's degree essentially; you'll have to get A's and B's in every single subject in every single term), then you are eligible to apply for permanent residency and should be granted it assuming you haven't gotten into any trouble during your student years there. Permanent residency is something you'll always have, so at that point you're free to come and go and do whatever you want in the country, and then apply for citizenship if you continue to live there for 2-3 more years.
Those are quite hard to achieve though. For all the other students who get blue diplomas, you can still apply for temporary residency, and find a job which will allow you to stay in the country.
Generally the process is temporary residency -> permanent residency -> citizenship

Also, once you get citizenship, you can invite some of your family members to the country. That's another way of getting into the country, have a relative who's a Russian citizen or marry a Russian citizen.