The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

sepheronx wrote:

zino wrote:I have to say, I'm a bit scared. What the hell is going on? Crimea didn't seem in danger. Maybe it's all to give hope to the east, but it would be risky, right?
Here in Italy the shitstorm has started. All the media is screaming of "soviet invasion" (not kidding) of Ukraine. Even the state owned news channel speaks in that way. Nobody, politicians, journalists or anchorman, is prepared on this subject. Ignorance is complete. And surprise: in 2008 Russia attacked Georgia. No hope for justice here.

No hope for justice in what?  In 2008, Georgia attacked Russians.  This is a different case and I am not entirely pleased that Russia has men in Crimea for this.

I was referring to rewriting history. As I mentioned above I share your concern

Werewolf wrote:

What you think about that?

Pre planned drills

So there will be storming of naval base tonight. West at least could send some equipment to them, I think it wont be enough weapons for volunteers and reservists.

"Oligarchs appointed heads of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk administrations"
http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=485229

Any hope of getting rid of those scumbags? They are the worst obstacle for Russia in the east.
Do you think Russia can/wants do something to change the political situation in the east?

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_03/BBC-makes-report-about-Nazi-militants-in-Kiev-7684/

Britain and America were made to look very stupid when their voters decided it was clear they were looking to support Al Qaeda type groups in Syria.

The BBC running this article suggests there may be another embarrassed climbdown, when the truth of Neo Nazis running the coup attempts start to emerge and become accepted more in the West.

To say Yanukovich "abdicated power" (as that clown Obama said) is offensive in the extreme really.

My big question is how well Russia can seal off the Ukraine's EU borders. ANd neutralise military units quickly and easily.

TR1 wrote:

Nobody has been hurt or killed yet.  

How do you think this is going to end?  

From the White House:

WH wrote:Readout of the President's Calls with Prime Minister Cameron, President Komorowski, and Chancellor Merkel

President Obama spoke separately this afternoon with Prime Minister Cameron of the United Kingdom, President Komorowski of Poland, and Chancellor Merkel of Germany.  The leaders expressed their grave concern over Russia’s clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law and a threat to international peace and security.  The leaders stressed that dialogue between Ukraine and Russia should start immediately, with international facilitation as appropriate.

The leaders affirmed the importance of unity within the international community in support of international law and their support for the Government of Ukraine, including its territorial integrity and its efforts to move forward with elections in May so that the Ukrainian people can continue to determine their own future in this historic hour.  The leaders also pledged to work together on a package of multilateral and bilateral financial assistance to help Ukraine as it pursues urgently needed reforms to stabilize its economy.  The leaders agreed to continue to coordinate closely, including bilaterally, and through appropriate international organizations.

The President reaffirmed the United States’ longstanding and continuing commitment to security and democracy in Eastern Europe.

WhiteHouse.gov

Seems things are getting a diplomatic turn.
Good news if you ask me...but...one never knows.

And from the UN:

UN wrote: Following the Security Council's consultations and given the developments on the ground in Ukraine, the Secretary-General is dispatching Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson to the country this evening.

While in Ukraine, the Deputy Secretary-General will be personally apprised of the facts on the ground and will subsequently brief the Secretary-General on the next steps the United Nations could take to support the de-escalation of the situation.

UN.org

Vladimir79 wrote:

TR1 wrote:

Nobody has been hurt or killed yet.  

How do you think this is going to end?  

I don't think Russia gives fuck-all about the rest of the Ukraine.

Crimea is the limit IMO.

TR1 wrote:I don't think Russia gives fuck-all about the rest of the Ukraine.
Crimea is the limit IMO.

That's kinda hard to comprehend.
To make such a risky move over only the Crimea, I mean.
I'm still in the dark on the 'reason why' of all this...

IMO it is completely unthinkable for Russia to just separate Crimea from the rest and return home.

First, one way or an other they were already controlling Crimea for any practical purpose.

Second and by far the most important without Crimea the remaining Russian population in Ukraine will fall below a critical lever.

Third, just taking Crimea will cause an anti-Russia notion to the country and a further suffering to the remaining minorities, Ukrainians will then step to NATO and bring everything in.

Obviously this is not the answer to the puzzle    Creating confusion is a right sign. The more people are confused the better your execution is.

macedonian wrote:

TR1 wrote:I don't think Russia gives fuck-all about the rest of the Ukraine.
Crimea is the limit IMO.

That's kinda hard to comprehend.
To make such a risky move over only the Crimea, I mean.
I'm still in the dark on the 'reason why' of all this...

Hey, there are many Putin supporters here, maybe they can illustrate his genius .

Should have just stood and watched from the sidelines. Would have been much better for Russia IMO.

Our grand strategists had to know how Europe would respond. Should have just pushed for Crimean referendum.

Hannibal Barca wrote:IMO it is completely unthinkable for Russia to just separate Crimea from the rest and return home.

First, one way or an other they were already controlling Crimea for any practical purpose.

Second and by far the most important without Crimea the remaining Russian population in Ukraine will fall below a critical lever.

Third, just taking Crimea will cause an anti-Russia notion to the country and a further suffering to the remaining minorities, Ukrainians will then step to NATO and bring everything in.

Obviously this is not the answer to the puzzle    Creating confusion is a right sign. The more people are confused the better your execution is.

This time I agree.
I think the goal is to change the structure of the state. A federal state, with extensive autonomy (especially financial) to the east and the guarantee of the overall neutrality. The purpose of the troops is to put pressure and they are helping to give hope to the Russian-speaking people. But they must wake up or all will be useless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P6eo8IXOkM

What is he saying here? Is that before the supposed heart attack?

Well, now that the troops are there and the west has shown their ugly heads again regarding Russia (they condemn Russia over Crimea even though its peaceful right now, while they do not condemn USA on their actions in half the world). So they are gonna get kicked out of G8 (lol, what a useless board anyway) and more finger wagging going on, so at this point, even if Russia backs out, it will all still stand. Russia should dump the WTO and just go their own direction entirely.

I am still worried about Economic Sanctions and how it will impact.

I expect the Superjet and MS-21 program will be impacted.

Rouble will go on free fall requiring intervention from CB leading to burning of precious Forex.

Russia economy in bad state will get impacted.

Russian Assets abroad will be frozen and so will any investement from West.

Is that a worthy trade off ?

Austin wrote:I am still worried about Economic Sanctions and how it will impact.

I expect the Superjet and MS-21 program will be impacted.

Rouble will go on free fall requiring intervention from CB leading to burning of precious Forex.

Russia economy in bad state will get impacted.

Russian Assets abroad will be frozen and so will any investement from West.

Is that a worthy trade off ?

Do you even know what your talking about?

I have questions for you:

How would Rouble fall?  Who controls Rouble?

Which assets will be frozen?  How will it actually effect Russia?

In what bad state are you talking about?

And how will it affect Superjet and MS21?  Parts?  Then it backs up the point that you cannot have a jet using all foreign parts.

Austin, You are smarter than this.  What can US actually do?

Putin and the rest of Russia knows better than any of us armchair generals, and you think he didn't think about this before acting? Remember Georgia? So much for the threats from US right? What was the outcome again? Oh yeah. And there was actual death in that conflict.

I say this actually falls under Putin's and Medvedev's previous plans on manufacturing as best what they can.  Because if sanctions do happen, then Russia would be forced to fund their own industries that make the equivelent equipment.  Already, PS-90A3 engines run under their own due to US sanctions on Iran as an example.  This will even go as far as increase funding for development of domestic microprocessor technologies as it will probably end up being harder to obtain Intel or AMD based products in the future for Russian industries.  As well, due to probably making it hard to bring in products from other countries (which would go against WTO by blacklisting or even sanctioning companies), will bring more funding to domestic consumption.

Russia is also a massive country which has a huge market base.  No real companies will pull back, especially with all that funding going on.  Austin, you were obviously wrong about FDI, which actually saw a raise (when you blamed lack of investments being the reason for economic issues), so what makes you think you are right now?

But here is the best part. Iran got hit by sanctions, what good has that done? Nothing. Russia on the other hand, has far more industries dealing with heavy industrial equipment. Actually, in that sense, domestic consumption of these goods are already really high, and export is mainly CIS countries. Then there is the fact that Belarus and Kazakhstan falls under the Customs Union, obtaining the equipment through them will be fairly easy, since there is no tarrifs between these countries. Then there is the fact that Russia has the ability to supply itself. Yeah, the products may not be as good as the german or french equivelent, but after more funding and time, it can. As well, Germany and France has so much investments in Russia, its unbelieveable.

Now tell me Austin. What is it that US has in Russia? Ford? and maybe a few plants. Thats it. Majority of the rest is European, Asian or Russian itself. Sorry to break your heart, but US has almost no assets in Russia, and this has been pointed out for quite some time.

Question I have: where is the outrage of USA invading Iraq? People seem to be pointing similarities of Russia to Hitler Germany in taking Austria. So where is the comparison of Hitler Germany to USA in Poland vs Iraq?

Russian PM Medvedev views on FB

Russia's not ready to develop relations with people who illegally seized power

MOSCOW, March 03, 7:05 /ITAR-TASS/. Russia is ready to develop relations with Ukraine, but not with the group of people who seized power in breach of the Constitution and other laws of the State, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his page in Facebook.

"My attitude is as follows: Russia is prepared to develop comprehensive respectful relations with fraternal Ukraine. Mutually beneficial and effective ones. However, Ukraine to us is not just a group of people who, upon spilling blood at maidan, seized power in violation of the Constitution and other laws of their State. We perceive Ukraine it its aggregate as a country inhabited by diverse people. Ukrainians, Russians, Tatars, Jews, and people of other nationalities living in accord," the Russian Head of Government wrote.

"Yes, the prestige of President (Viktor) Yanukovich is almost negligible but this does not nullify the fact that under the Constitution of Ukraine he is (still) the legitimate Head of State. If he is guilty before Ukraine carry out a procedure of impeachment in accordance with Ukraine's Constitution (Article 111) and put him on trial. All the rest is arbitrariness. A seizure of power. And this means that such a procedure will be utterly unstable and will end with a new coup, and a new bloodshed," Medvedev maintains.

"Russia needs a strong and stable Ukraine. Predictable and economically reliable partner. And not a poor relative who who keeps begging with an outstretched hand. The latter-day Ukrainian rulers were told about all this on Sunday," the RF Prime Minister emphasized.

Russia has some keys they can turn as well:

Blocking the Afghan route for NATO
Increasing prices of oil/gas
further investments and trade with Iran
further investments and trade, as well as bolstering Venezuela and Cuba
Seek further trade and investments with China - Trade oil/gas for certain industrial equipment that is needed as replacement
Tie roubles to something, and not keep it free floating (in USSR times, Rouble stayed strong regardless of sanctions, due to it being tied to various things).
Further build up military as well push investments in Pakistan, to bring them out of US sphere
Look to improve relations with Iraq and Egypt even more - to push Russian products to these countries.

There are lots of options it seems.

In case of westerneconomic measures against Russia, western companies wil suffer hardest because they are highly reliant on exports to Russia. They also have so much invested in Russia: think of all the car factories for example.
The west (particularly Europe) is too exposed. They can not go much beyond bitching, complaining and condemning. Let them go ahead and cancel the G8 Meeting in Sochi, who cares.

sepheronx wrote:
Now tell me Austin.  What is it that US has in Russia?  Ford? and maybe a few plants.  Thats it.  Majority of the rest is European, Asian or Russian itself.  Sorry to break your heart, but US has almost no assets in Russia, and this has been pointed out for quite some time.

The problem is the Oil Money for Russia is routed through bank and most of the times its through US banks.

Even if its not US , it could be EU Bank .........so US can freeze these like they did for Iran.

Although I hope things dont go this far .....it will be bad for Russian Economy

Austin wrote:

sepheronx wrote:
Now tell me Austin.  What is it that US has in Russia?  Ford? and maybe a few plants.  Thats it.  Majority of the rest is European, Asian or Russian itself.  Sorry to break your heart, but US has almost no assets in Russia, and this has been pointed out for quite some time.

The problem is the Oil Money for Russia is routed through bank and most of the times its through US banks.

Even if its not US , it could be EU Bank .........so US can freeze these like they did for Iran.

Although I hope things dont go this far .....it will be bad for Russian Economy

If that is the case, then that opens up the market for Russian oil to other groups, who may bypass US banks. I am willing to bet that Russia will be likely to sell its oil/gas in things like Yuan or Peso or the like instead of USD. And this is where things get hazy when dealing with USA.

TheArmenian wrote:In case of westerneconomic measures against Russia, western companies wil suffer hardest because they are highly reliant on exports to Russia. They also have so much invested in Russia: think of all the car factories for example.
The west (particularly Europe) is too exposed. They can not go much beyond bitching, complaining and condemning. Let them go ahead and cancel the G8 Meeting in Sochi, who cares.

Exactly.

France has something like $40B or so invested in Russia.  Germany, same thing.  All those plants, all those manufacturing facilities, all those service locations, all those products they rely to sell to Russia and China.  IF that all goes down the tube, a huge % of Europes exports goes down the drain and they will be hurt economically.  Already it was mentioned that Europe is not quite ball on the same economic sanctions that US is thinking.  Since US has no push/pull in Russia, they have to rely on Europe.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/ukraine-crisis-eu-idUSL6N0LZ0R120140302