The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Hannibal Barca wrote:Everything that I was predicting went wrong in this crisis

Yes. Your crystal ball needs some serious tuning.

My predictions (pessimism rulez):

US will fund Ukraine, not EU. Perhaps by IMF, but with far smoother rules than usual.
EU will take possession of the whole ukrainian GTS system, in spite of 3rd energy package. This will be the EU trophy for the victory.
Eastern partnership immediately.
Forget russian language, it's doomed.
Forget crimean autonomy. The local parlament will be dispossessed of any real power.


New problems resulting for:

South Stream is now in danger. And the related partnership with bulgaria, serbia, croatia and more.
Transnistria is sieged.
BSF in Sevastopol is in danger.
And many others, but now I'm too sad to continue.


At last, how will be the new Ukraine? Communist party will be banned as well as PoR. Probably a good outcome, because were both useless.
Will be the east able to reorganize itself in a new less corrupted party in order to protect their own interests (and assuming alliance with Russia is one of them)?
Difficult times ahead.

Yeah, I have some problems predicting human stupidity...
If everyone had reacted like he should Russia would control the situation EASILY.
I just don't want to believe that the tyrannical EU may survive even a day more due
to this morons. This stupid Ukrainians is to be blamed that reinforcing
the wrongdoing and suffering all over Europe!

Why Russia or any other party should control Ukraine? It's up to them to sort things out.
Only thing that Russia needs is to keep NATO presence out of Ukraine and with ethnic conflict in a making I doubt that NATO will step in.

Regular wrote:Why Russia or any other party should control Ukraine? It's up to them to sort things out.
Only thing that Russia needs is to keep NATO presence out of Ukraine and with ethnic conflict in a making I doubt that NATO will step in.

Wrong, the entire coup with Ukraine by USA is to isolate russia and surround it with more NATO bases. Don't history and examples of more than 130 other countries give you already enough proof of what USA really wants?
USA WILL do everything possible to harm and isolate or to play china against russia. The only reason why Russia is always invaded and threatned is because it is the richest country on earth holding half of worlds known resources and is the key point of anglo-zionistic end goal for world domination through resources.

Usually I am not for splitting anything, and I sure as hell am not for Russian intervention, but...why would a split be a grave mistake ?

Honestly?

The two halves hate each other. They are polarized as fuck. One side has clearly shown they will not tolerate the elected government to make its own decisions if they run contrary to West Ukrainian expectations.

Split up, then do whatever you please.
The issue of course is critical, and divided places like Kiev.

TR1 wrote:Usually I am not for splitting anything, and I sure as hell am not for Russian intervention, but...why would a split be a grave mistake ?

Honestly?

The two halves hate each other. They are polarized as fuck. One side has clearly shown they will not tolerate the elected government to make its own decisions if they run contrary to West Ukrainian expectations.

Split up, then do whatever you please.
The issue of course is critical, and divided places like Kiev.

Divide and controll, as crazy this western loving facists are they will be happily sign any treaty to install ABM shields or install any NATO base or anything that will hurt russia just to surve their russophobic joy, this retards need some serious hits against their skull untill they realize that they are RUSSIANS, how stupid facists are is facistzinating.

TR1 wrote:Usually I am not for splitting anything, and I sure as hell am not for Russian intervention, but...why would a split be a grave mistake ?

Honestly?

The two halves hate each other. They are polarized as fuck. One side has clearly shown they will not tolerate the elected government to make its own decisions if they run contrary to West Ukrainian expectations.

Split up, then do whatever you please.
The issue of course is critical, and divided places like Kiev.

Russia being passive led to the Yugoslavia crisis, when Yeltsin stayed quite and we saw the rise of Bosnian and Kosovo extremists who went out their way to finance extremists in Chechnya and Dagestan, if Ukraine undergoes balkinization guess what you'll find? The rise of Tartar extremists, and they'll find a way to cause a new crisis in in Russia, but guess where in Russia? Tartarstan will probably be the center of a new crisis, or at least you'll see a rise of extremist activity in Chechnya and Dagestan:

magnumcromagnon wrote:

TR1 wrote:Usually I am not for splitting anything, and I sure as hell am not for Russian intervention, but...why would a split be a grave mistake ?

Honestly?

The two halves hate each other. They are polarized as fuck. One side has clearly shown they will not tolerate the elected government to make its own decisions if they run contrary to West Ukrainian expectations.

Split up, then do whatever you please.
The issue of course is critical, and divided places like Kiev.

Russia being passive led to the Yugoslavia crisis, when Yeltsin stayed quite and we saw the rise of Bosnian and Kosovo extremists who went out their way to finance extremists in Chechnya and Dagestan, if Ukraine undergoes balkinization guess what you'll find? The rise of Tartar extremists, and they'll find a way to cause a new crisis in in Russia, but guess where in Russia? Tartarstan will probably be the center of a new crisis, or at least you'll see a rise of extremist activity in Chechnya and Dagestan:

Crimean Tatars are not the same people as the Tatars in Tatarstan. Two completely different peoples, the only thing they have in common is that they were both part of the Golden Horde 700 years ago.

And Yugoslavia crisis had nothing to do with Russia being passive.

Sorry, that was not Russia's business, and was a giant mess that was brewing for years.

Nobody from Ukraine is goign to cross into Russia and start bombing, relax.

Werewolf wrote:

TR1 wrote:Usually I am not for splitting anything, and I sure as hell am not for Russian intervention, but...why would a split be a grave mistake ?

Honestly?

The two halves hate each other. They are polarized as fuck. One side has clearly shown they will not tolerate the elected government to make its own decisions if they run contrary to West Ukrainian expectations.

Split up, then do whatever you please.
The issue of course is critical, and divided places like Kiev.

Divide and controll, as crazy this western loving facists are they will be happily sign any treaty to install ABM shields or install any NATO base or anything that will hurt russia just to surve their russophobic joy, this retards need some serious hits against their skull untill they realize that they are RUSSIANS, how stupid facists are is facistzinating.

How easily You guys throw fascist remarks. Fascistic protesters were the most active as they were preparing for this than regular people who got sick of corrupt power-hungry traitor.
What would have happened if Yelcin would have stayed in power for longer, Russians would've found themselves in similar situation. It's easy for them to talk now when Russia is not failed state ruled by idiot ex con.
From some Western Ukrainian people Eastern Ukrainians or Russians are seen as Nazis and fascists, a fifth column. It's kind of funny to see them to call each other same names.
They are what they are, Ukrainians and they were willing to die for it, so they have identity but so does other side of Ukraine and we have to take this into account.
They are too hotheaded to live in same country, one will dominate the other.

The CIA, European intelligence agencies, the US State Department, and multiple NGO fronts for those entities have been working in Ukraine for decades. They had the structure for this revolt all keyed up and ready to go for years. That being said, the success of it does depend on the passion and energy of the western Ukrainians to actually get out and fight. The crowds in Kiev were mostly young. If you watch video of pro-Russian protests the crowds are usually older. No Ukrainian under 30 has any real memory of ever living in a single state with Russia and their schooling for 20 years has painted Russia negatively. No eastern region of Ukraine will secede. Even in Kharkov, the pro-westerners are out in force intimidating the other side. Russia will not intervene in Crimea unless their forces are attacked and NATO/US has no desire to take that route.

Ukraine will eventually be brought into NATO. That's the whole idea. The EU and US will increase their support of Caucasian separatism followed by Tartar separatism, Bashkir, Circassian, ect. It is all open knowledge written about by Brzezinski who published a map of Russia in 1996 showing the country broken into 7 different regions.

The base goal is to remove Russia permanently as even a theoretical threat to "trans-Atlantic" hegemony. Russia is viewed as too large, controlling too many natural resources, and too militarily advanced to "let be".

I feel sorry for Putin. He is fundamentally dealing with a very weak hand. It was Gorbachev that really gave everything away. Had the USSR had a young effective leader in 1980 or 1985 (as China did in Deng) the future would have been different.

What country do you live your words seem anti Russian

Wow, things really went wrong over there.  

Well this thing still ain't over yet, and i am still sticking to my previous prediction, that eastern Ukraine will seek some sort of autonomy from there western counter parts and then reunification with the Russian Federation in order to establish long term economical, political and  militarial stability.  

Today is really one of the saddest day for us. I mean, for everyone Russia represent more than a country, although powerful and full of history.
Putin said during one of his long live session, responding to a reporter who asked about project A, B or C: "Russia is not a project, is a destiny". This sentence is astonishing but, for me, is the closest to my thinking and feeling. Well, today this destiny is much smaller, we have to admit. I recognize that the concept is something abstract, so I will accept the criticism of those who actually live in russia and have to deal with the everyday reality.

Dedicated to ukrainians, not the nazi worshippers of course, but to simple citizens who are on the receiving end of the history. Workers, farmers, miners, clerks...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfHpWwWu-qY

Written in Italy, 1991.

English translate

POOR COUNTRY

My poor country! Crushed under the abuses of power
By scoundrels who never heard of shame,
Who think they are mighty and are pleased by all they do;
And everything belongs to them.
Among our rulers how many utterly useless fools!
This country is devastated by sorrow...
But doesn't it disturb you just a little
To see all those cold bodies on the ground?

It will not change, it will not change...
No it will change, maybe it will change.

But how can we forgive the brutes of the football stadiums
And the hyenas of the press?
The peninsula of pigs is sinking into the muck.
I'm a bit ashamed, and it grieves me
To regard a man as a beast.
It will not change, it will not change..
Yes it will change you'll see it will change.

I'd like to hope that the world will return to a more normal state,
In which we can peacefully contemplate the sky and the flowers,
And never talk again of dictatorships,
If we could just have a bit more time for living..
Meanwhile Spring is coming in late.

Regular wrote:How easily You guys throw fascist remarks. Fascistic protesters were the most active as they were preparing for this than regular people who got sick of corrupt power-hungry traitor.
What would have happened if Yelcin would have stayed in power for longer, Russians would've found themselves in similar situation. It's easy for them to talk now when Russia is not failed state ruled by idiot ex con.

Holy fuck have you seen Yanukovich's house??
This is how he lives while, while some of his population are too poor to afford gas in the winter and burn anything they can find to keep warm
Some of this stuff rivals some of the smaller palaces of the Tsars



This is one of his many mansions. He has others in Kharkov, Donetsk it seems too, the Carpathian mountains, and another huge one under construction in the Crimea

And Viktor Pshonka - the now ex-prosecutor general. My god; this is just one of his houses. He has others. It's like everything is made of gold.

http://4ubuk.blogspot.se/2014/02/blog-post_23.html

Then again, Putin would probably put them all to shame Russia is the best!

If this had just been a protest against the absolute corruption of the Ukrainian leaders, the top officials, the Party of Regions, the oligarchs (including Timoshenko) and so on - without any of this Svoboda nazis, 'Pravy Sektor', pro-EU bullshit - then I would have been all for it

I laugh so hard at people who think Timoshenko is some Ukranian savior.

TR1 wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:Sad situation.

Anyways. Let's look about military programs and cooperation with Ukraine - what will be affected in case Ukraine's government decides to be anti-Russia.

- I believe engines for Kh-35 are now made in Russia. So no possible negative outcome there
- Helicopter engines: are they still being sourced fro Motor-Sich Ukraine?
- Russia will let the An-70 program die a natural death. The Il-76 will be the sole large Russian transport plane.
- The An-178 (Cargo version of the An-148) will no longer be interesting. Russia will opt for the Il-117V instead.
- The cargo transport version of the AN-140 will die before birth.

1.) Russia still uses massive amounts of engines from Motor-Sich. No way around it. The shift has been happening, but it is not complete, nor will it be for years.
However I would love to see it accelerated by these events.
2.) One can hope about An-70. Better just work with a foreign partner (hell even teh Chinese) on a replacement in the future.
3.) An-178 was dead anyways, the earlier optimism was just that.
4.) Regarding cruise missiles (tactical and strategic) that has been localized over the past decade. For obvious strategic reasons.
5.) One can hope regarding An-140. Further development of that plane really makes little sense.

I dont think Russians will take any drastic action no matter which Government is in Power ....As Vlad said we would give loans to Ukranian people and so was his promise of Cheap Gas.

Russians Understands Engaging Ukraine is more benefitial then Isolating them and worse Punishing them ....that would only hurt the Russian base in Ukraine.

I bet Russians would continue to buy An-70 and promote An-148/158 and buy them for their own self interest and keep the Industry in Eastern Ukraine its support base alive.

Yes cancelling An-140 makes sense as Russian have their own IL-112V program to support and An-140 has much less potential then the Russian program.

Russia would also support the An-124 program for its own reason as mentioned above.

Provide Cheap Gas and Loan but under IMF Guidance as Russian Finance Minister supported it yesterday for the loan part.

All in All I dont see Ukraine joining EUAA a bad thing for Russia its more bad for Ukraine Industry ....when things settle down they will realise that and when Russia introduces tarrif to stop its own economy getting hurt.

Austin wrote:

TR1 wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:Sad situation.

Anyways. Let's look about military programs and cooperation with Ukraine - what will be affected in case Ukraine's government decides to be anti-Russia.

- I believe engines for Kh-35 are now made in Russia. So no possible negative outcome there
- Helicopter engines: are they still being sourced fro Motor-Sich Ukraine?
- Russia will let the An-70 program die a natural death. The Il-76 will be the sole large Russian transport plane.
- The An-178 (Cargo version of the An-148) will no longer be interesting. Russia will opt for the Il-117V instead.
- The cargo transport version of the AN-140 will die before birth.

1.) Russia still uses massive amounts of engines from Motor-Sich. No way around it. The shift has been happening, but it is not complete, nor will it be for years.
However I would love to see it accelerated by these events.
2.) One can hope about An-70. Better just work with a foreign partner (hell even teh Chinese) on a replacement in the future.
3.) An-178 was dead anyways, the earlier optimism was just that.
4.) Regarding cruise missiles (tactical and strategic) that has been localized over the past decade. For obvious strategic reasons.
5.) One can hope regarding An-140. Further development of that plane really makes little sense.

I dont think Russians will take any drastic action no matter which Government is in Power ....As Vlad said we would give loans to Ukranian people and so was his promise of Cheap Gas.

Russians Understands Engaging Ukraine is more benefitial then Isolating them and worse Punishing them ....that would only hurt the Russian base in Ukraine.

I bet Russians would continue to buy An-70 and promote An-148/158 and buy them for their own self interest and keep the Industry in Eastern Ukraine its support base alive.

Yes cancelling An-140 makes sense as Russian have their own IL-112V program to support and An-140 has much less potential then the Russian program.

Russia would also support the An-124 program for its own reason as mentioned above.

Provide Cheap Gas and Loan but under IMF Guidance as Russian Finance Minister supported it yesterday for the loan part.

All in All I dont see Ukraine joining EUAA a bad thing for Russia its more bad for Ukraine Industry ....when things settle down they will realise that and when Russia introduces tarrif to stop its own economy getting hurt.

WTF? Russia's not going to Jack or Sh1t for this rabble here; that have taken over the organs of power and are beating or keeping hostage Regions and Communist MPs to vote their way.

That's not a government. Not a legitimate one.

Now,
when, or rather if - the Ukraine does get a legitimate government, as a result of elections - then Russia could tell them to fk off oficially   

But I don't know how likely that is - one Eastern region after the other is refusing the recognize the new authorities in Kiev, or are disobeying their orders (city of Sevastopol just elected a new mayor who will ignore Kiev, Lugansk declared that it doesn't recognize Kiev, Kharkov police are refusing to carry out instructions by the new head of the MVD). So we're a long way from compromises and negotiations. Rather - protracted civil conflict, maybe a few firefights, etc... and increasing political consciousness, rallies in the Eastern provinces - while increasing activities by armed bandits and mobs in the West and centre.
And the economy will collapse a long way before anything can be sorted out.

I mean look at this. Maidan fighters arrived in Lugansk (city right at the most Eastern tip of the Ukraine); with AKS-74s, firing them right in the centre of the city
Where the hell are the police? Sleeping?

This is my point - the so called pro-Russian Ukraine has no will for a fight, Can you imagine people from the Crimea going to Lvov with AKs to terrorize the downtown ? They wouldn't make it out alive. Here they act with complete impudence. There will be no partition. As Lukashenko said, "Russia had a chance to join with Belarussia and (in his words) probably we could regain Ukraine too, but Russia rejected it. It was Russia not us who did not want to rejoin as one nation."

Limonov also once stated that there an implicit agreement (or threat) between Russia and the West that Russia would never attempt to reincorporate its former Soviet territories. This is a red line. Remember all those Russian elite have their Swiss bank accounts, mansions in Europe, and like Putin send their kids to school in London or Italy.

My point is Mature Government behaves in Mature way.

Right now the Maidan fighter have the upper hand based on terrorising people but they dont represent the Majority of Ukraine people , certainly not proven by fair vote.

Russia needs to engage Ukranians for their own National Interest especially the Eastern Base where it has significant support.

Policy of Russians towards Ukrainians cant be a Switch On Switch off types based on who is on power.

The more Deep Russian Economic Engagement is with Ukraine the more leverage it will have with the Powers that be and more significantly the people.

I am sure Putin and his government will take a mature approach and it wont be a rash event based on some Maidan protesters.

calripson wrote:This is my point - the so called pro-Russian Ukraine has no will for a fight, Can you imagine people from the Crimea going to Lvov with AKs to terrorize the downtown ? They wouldn't make it out alive. Here they act with complete impudence. There will be no partition. As Lukashenko said, "Russia had a chance to join with Belarussia and (in his words) probably we could regain Ukraine too, but Russia rejected it. It was Russia not us who did not want to rejoin as one nation."

Limonov also once stated that there an implicit agreement (or threat) between Russia and the West that Russia would never attempt to reincorporate its former Soviet territories. This is a red line. Remember all those Russian elite have their Swiss bank accounts, mansions in Europe, and like Putin send their kids to school in London or Italy.

That's what I thought too, but Eastern Ukraine is waking up pretty quick

There was a huge rally in Odessa, and seperately from that a few hundred armed people turned up to give a beatdown to the Maidan activists
Huge rally in Sevastopol
Large rallies in Kharkov now, the Maidan activists are basically besieged in the city hall and are protected only by police, while a whole other mass of people are defending the Lenin monument.

Right now calls are going viral through social networks for the organisation of anti-Maidan militias in Kharkov, Donetsk, Krivoy Rog, Odessa, Zaporozhie, Lugansk, Simferopol, Sevastopol and Denpropetrovsk

Sh1t is going down, in other words. With the exception of Kherson and Nikolayev, these are all the major cities in Eastern Ukraine. Enjoy the show.

I think Russia would be seriously worried only of Ukraine joins NATO for the rest I dont see why Vlad should be worried.

ok the maidan and all is fine for the show of strength as long as its not violent and does not call for break up of Ukraine along East/West lines.

Hey guys, check this out:

"Ukraine needs 35 billion. dollars

Ukraine on Monday said it was urgent need 35 billion. U.S. dollars in financial assistance from foreign donors and asked the West over the next two weeks to convene an international conference to an agreement on a financial rescue plan for Kiev.

Interim Finance Minister Yuriy Kolobov its report stated that the planned volume of macro-economic assistance to Ukraine to be about 35 billion. U.S. dollars (25 billion. Euros or 88 billion. Dollars) by the end of next year."

http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/world/paviesintas-dar-vienas-vaizdo-irasas-sokiruoja-i-aktyvistus-saudziusiu-snaiperiu-amunicija.d?id=64105334#ixzz2uEmYfhJz

Freaking 35 billion USD??? Are they fu***ng insane?    

A good portion of the money will be pocketed by the Maidan Goon .....As services rendered for the coup   

And then IMF will put such a tough condition on Ukranian people that it would lead to another round of protest