The Situation in the Ukraine. #5

macedonian wrote:Don't want to derail the thread any further than I already did, but I'll say this,

In order for the divide and conquer game to be successful - there are a few prerequisites that first need to be fulfilled:

1. An ignorant population that doesn't see through the game and its own assigned role of mere cannon fodder in it;
2. A very strong inferiority complex that can either results in [false] nationalism or in defeatism;
3. False grandeur (usually historical romanticism);
4. Poverty and laziness of the populace;
5. Historical hatred between nations (see points 1,2 and 3 here also)
6. Ethnic and/or Religious differences that can easily be exploited (see points 1, 2, 3, and 5 here also)

So as much as I'd like to pin all the blame on Uncle Sam (and I do think that the "New American Empire", [which closely mimics the Roman Empire btw], is playing the game of Divide Et Impera in Europe), one has to be honest and confess that Europe is quite a fertile ground for the said game, and will continue to be such, as long as points 1,2,3,4,5, and 6 are a reality. The EU is a part of this problem too, it's presented as an "Elitist Club" to poorer nations, while the richer nations' oligarchs literally pillage their national wealth and resources. Such is the sad reality in this European continent.

dont blame the people beeing pathetic , when their leader announces  their death sentance..
I wonder what will remain of Putin after that.
No one will refer on Crimea.. and everybody will refer t the lossof Donbass and Odessa

Is an irony that most of the Ukrainians that are Pro Russia ..are also pro Communism..
and or pro Heavy social programs..So in essence they will vote against Putin and Medveden if they annexed.
And align more with other parties.. but this have no impact at all in Russia policy in Ukraine.. They need to increase the
CHristian Population in the Caucasus to counter the Muslins menace and the 5 millions eastern Ukraine could in theory
become a quick solution . However Russia economy cannot sustain such population they will try to negotiate for DOnetsk and Lugansk
Regions as Part of Ukraine but with full autonomy.

arpakola wrote:

macedonian wrote:Don't want to derail the thread any further than I already did, but I'll say this,

In order for the divide and conquer game to be successful - there are a few prerequisites that first need to be fulfilled:

1. An ignorant population that doesn't see through the game and its own assigned role of mere cannon fodder in it;
2. A very strong inferiority complex that can either results in [false] nationalism or in defeatism;
3. False grandeur (usually historical romanticism);
4. Poverty and laziness of the populace;
5. Historical hatred between nations (see points 1,2 and 3 here also)
6. Ethnic and/or Religious differences that can easily be exploited (see points 1, 2, 3, and 5 here also)

So as much as I'd like to pin all the blame on Uncle Sam (and I do think that the "New American Empire", [which closely mimics the Roman Empire btw], is playing the game of Divide Et Impera in Europe), one has to be honest and confess that Europe is quite a fertile ground for the said game, and will continue to be such, as long as points 1,2,3,4,5, and 6 are a reality. The EU is a part of this problem too, it's presented as an "Elitist Club" to poorer nations, while the richer nations' oligarchs literally pillage their national wealth and resources. Such is the sad reality in this European continent.

dont blame the people beeing pathetic , when their leader announces  their death sentance..
I wonder what will remain of Putin after that.
No one will refer on Crimea.. and everybody will refer t the lossof Donbass and Odessa

Yes, I agree.
Though, on the other hand, the people always get the leaders that they deserve.
But as much as I liked Putin for bringing Russia back from the edge of the abyss, I now wonder how he will be remembered...

I don't understand where you people get these silly notions about the situation in Ukraine   Yeah sure they can join EU/NATO (hell will freeze over before it happens IMO) but without the SE regions.

Another week has gone by and the regime forces still haven't managed to retake anything. They claimed they've taken Krasnij Liman but all they took was a checkpoint in a outer suburb (I believe it's called Caricin) and have been pushed back since with losses. Their own intelligence is telling the president that   they have to finish this operation soon or the fighting will spread west, as they believe the rebels are training a force of 10-15000 fighters in the rear. They've thrown just about everything they've got at the rebels and are running out of serviceable equipment. Their airforce has suffered significant losses and now has to fly high making their targeting ineffective.

They don't trust their own Army and have to rely on right wing and private militias. Yes they can shell from a distance, but how do you expect such a force to take and hold major urban centres    

.....

Regarding the arrest of Ponomarjev, it hasn't been confirmed. But Strelkov has ordered the arrest of a mayor of a town in the Donetsk region (the husband of the ex mayor of Slavjansk who turned pro regime) and several other officials who were moles for the Kiev regime. Apparently they'll be taken to the frontline in Semenovka to dig trenches.

.....

This is what Russia expects will happen in Ukraine...

According to Glazyev, financial capabilities of Donbas will allow the region to avoid a sharp decline in living standards that the rest of Ukraine will see.

“According to our estimates, production in Ukraine will slump by at least 10 percent, and the hryvna [Ukraine’s national currency] will weaken at least by half. On the back of increasing tariffs and decreasing social benefits, freezing of budgetary workers’ salaries, Ukraine is prone to see its living standards decline by half,” Glazyev said.

At the same time the president’s aide stressed that Donbas can potentially increase its living standards by half, and become the most prosperous region of the new Ukraine.

Donets Basin Has Potential to Set Autonomous Financial System

......

Nice prize. Captured Mandate-B1E jammers being driven away from the seized Topaz plant



More info: http://topaz.dn.ua/ru/product_mandat.html

.

Don't celebrate too early.. Kiev still can receive free weapons and endless wave of mercenaries from NATO ,until no Jail in europe or Ukraine have anyone left. And then you have NATO drones..and more precision artillery and They can send attack drones and make a living nightmare of Independence forces..Im quite surprised the Rebels have not been wiped already.. Maybe there is a couple of hundred Russian Special fighting in Donetsk after all.

They have been using air power with unguided weapons and artillery... of course they haven't hit the armed fighters and mostly just hit civilians in the area... there is a reason why western police snipers don't use MLRS... very effective weapon of war, but not so good for winning hearts and minds.

Cyberspec wrote:I don't understand where you people get these silly notions about the situation in Ukraine   Yeah sure they can join EU/NATO (hell will freeze over before it happens IMO) but without the SE regions.

Another week has gone by and the regime forces still haven't managed to retake anything. They claimed they've taken Krasnij Liman but all they took was a checkpoint in a outer suburb (I believe it's called Caricin) and have been pushed back since with losses. Their own intelligence is telling the president that   they have to finish this operation soon or the fighting will spread west, as they believe the rebels are training a force of 10-15000 fighters in the rear. They've thrown just about everything they've got at the rebels and are running out of serviceable equipment. Their airforce has suffered significant losses and now has to fly high making their targeting ineffective.

They don't trust their own Army and have to rely on right wing and private militias. Yes they can shell from a distance, but how do you expect such a force to take and hold major urban centres    

.....
.....

This is what Russia expects will happen in Ukraine...

According to Glazyev, financial capabilities of Donbas will allow the region to avoid a sharp decline in living standards that the rest of Ukraine will see.

“According to our estimates, production in Ukraine will slump by at least 10 percent, and the hryvna [Ukraine’s national currency] will weaken at least by half. On the back of increasing tariffs and decreasing social benefits, freezing of budgetary workers’ salaries, Ukraine is prone to see its living standards decline by half,” Glazyev said.

At the same time the president’s aide stressed that Donbas can potentially increase its living standards by half, and become the most prosperous region of the new Ukraine.

Donets Basin Has Potential to Set Autonomous Financial System

......


More info: http://topaz.dn.ua/ru/product_mandat.html

.

Hope you are right

Cyberspec wrote:I don't understand where you people get these silly notions about the situation in Ukraine   Yeah sure they can join EU/NATO (hell will freeze over before it happens IMO) but without the SE regions.

Another week has gone by and the regime forces still haven't managed to retake anything. They claimed they've taken Krasnij Liman but all they took was a checkpoint in a outer suburb (I believe it's called Caricin) and have been pushed back since with losses. Their own intelligence is telling the president that   they have to finish this operation soon or the fighting will spread west, as they believe the rebels are training a force of 10-15000 fighters in the rear. They've thrown just about everything they've got at the rebels and are running out of serviceable equipment. Their airforce has suffered significant losses and now has to fly high making their targeting ineffective.

They don't trust their own Army and have to rely on right wing and private militias. Yes they can shell from a distance, but how do you expect such a force to take and hold major urban centres    

.....

Regarding the arrest of Ponomarjev, it hasn't been confirmed. But Strelkov has ordered the arrest of a mayor of a town in the Donetsk region (the husband of the ex mayor of Slavjansk who turned pro regime) and several other officials who were moles for the Kiev regime. Apparently they'll be taken to the frontline in Semenovka to dig trenches.

.....

This is what Russia expects will happen in Ukraine...

According to Glazyev, financial capabilities of Donbas will allow the region to avoid a sharp decline in living standards that the rest of Ukraine will see.

“According to our estimates, production in Ukraine will slump by at least 10 percent, and the hryvna [Ukraine’s national currency] will weaken at least by half. On the back of increasing tariffs and decreasing social benefits, freezing of budgetary workers’ salaries, Ukraine is prone to see its living standards decline by half,” Glazyev said.

At the same time the president’s aide stressed that Donbas can potentially increase its living standards by half, and become the most prosperous region of the new Ukraine.

Donets Basin Has Potential to Set Autonomous Financial System

......

Nice prize. Captured Mandate-B1E jammers being driven away from the seized Topaz plant



More info: http://topaz.dn.ua/ru/product_mandat.html

.

One important aspect related to the statements made by Glazyev is that, Glazyev is part of the Russian "admin". One of the laws of physics state that when the Russian "admin" makes a pronouncement, that pronouncement is a done deal as it relates to the human destiny. So I think this is one of the clearest announcements made concerning the immediate future of Ukraine.

I am not making any linkage between this statement and the long-term plans though, as the long term plans would dovetail with the plans for the remainder of the "world war".

arpakola wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:I don't understand where you people get these silly notions about the situation in Ukraine   Yeah sure they can join EU/NATO (hell will freeze over before it happens IMO) but without the SE regions.

Another week has gone by and the regime forces still haven't managed to retake anything. They claimed they've taken Krasnij Liman but all they took was a checkpoint in a outer suburb (I believe it's called Caricin) and have been pushed back since with losses. Their own intelligence is telling the president that   they have to finish this operation soon or the fighting will spread west, as they believe the rebels are training a force of 10-15000 fighters in the rear. They've thrown just about everything they've got at the rebels and are running out of serviceable equipment. Their airforce has suffered significant losses and now has to fly high making their targeting ineffective.

They don't trust their own Army and have to rely on right wing and private militias. Yes they can shell from a distance, but how do you expect such a force to take and hold major urban centres    

.....
.....

This is what Russia expects will happen in Ukraine...

According to Glazyev, financial capabilities of Donbas will allow the region to avoid a sharp decline in living standards that the rest of Ukraine will see.

“According to our estimates, production in Ukraine will slump by at least 10 percent, and the hryvna [Ukraine’s national currency] will weaken at least by half. On the back of increasing tariffs and decreasing social benefits, freezing of budgetary workers’ salaries, Ukraine is prone to see its living standards decline by half,” Glazyev said.

At the same time the president’s aide stressed that Donbas can potentially increase its living standards by half, and become the most prosperous region of the new Ukraine.

Donets Basin Has Potential to Set Autonomous Financial System

......


More info: http://topaz.dn.ua/ru/product_mandat.html

.

Hope you are right

This isn't even the half of it, by November the austerity measures will be heavily enforced. Compare Greece with Ukraine, before the EU/IMF imposed austerity then compare Greece afterwards, and now look at Ukraine which still hasn't even imposed IMF austerity and Ukraine's situation is actually worse than Greece post-austerity. Ukraine's current situation is 3 times worse than Greece post-austerity, and 6 times worse than Greece pre-austerity, once the IMF transformation is complete Euro-Maidan will become Iron-Maidan, and the Western Ukrainian dreams will be completely crushed once they find out their parents and grandparents pensions have been slashed in half, when they have no pre-natal care for their pregnant mothers, when natural gas subsidies are slashed in half and gas doubles in price while they're currency loses 50% of it's value (gas price will rise 4 fold), after all that Porkyshenko may be remembered for having his severed head stuck on a spear and his body twisting on a roasting spit! Louis Porkyshenko the 16th!

Italian communist came to Donetsk to fight

(from the fight of IRA (not direct parallel but never the less..)> http://garizo.blogspot.gr/2011/03/1-1981-30-bobby-sands.html
but similarities are increasing ..



======================
Also an information on the margin ... Bulgaria has political stabilty problems (caused by the temporary  rejection of South stream )

An interesting read:

Dispatching B-2 Stealth Bombers to Europe
Obama’s Attempt at Intimidating Russia
by MIKE WHITNEY

CounterPunch wrote:
...
On Thursday, the day before Poroshenko was sworn in, “President Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron set a deadline for Russia to comply with its demands or face harsher economic sanctions that would be imposed by members of the G-7. Once again, the threat of new sanctions was largely ignored by the western media but was reported in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Here’s an excerpt from the article:

   “To avoid even harsher sanctions.. Putin must meet three conditions: Recognize Petro Poroshenko’s election as the new leader in Kiev; stop arms from crossing the border; and cease support for pro-Russian separatist groups concentrated in eastern Ukraine.

   “If these things don’t happen, then sectoral sanctions will follow…”

   Obama said the G-7 leaders unanimously agree with the steps Cameron outlined.” (Haaretz)

The United States is ratcheting up the pressure in order to widen the conflict and force Russian president Vladimir Putin to meet their demands. It’s clear that the threat of sanctions, Poroshenko’s belligerent rhetoric, and the steady buildup of military assets and troops in the region, that Obama and Co. still think they can draw Putin into the conflict and make him look like a dangerous aggressor who can’t be trusted by his EU partners. Fortunately, Putin has not fallen into the trap. He’s resisted the temptation to send in the tanks to put an end to the violence in Donetsk, Lugansk and Slavyansk. This has undermined Washington’s plan to deploy NATO to Russia’s western border, assert control over the “bridgehead” between Europe and Asia, and stop the further economic integration between Russia and the EU. So far, Putin has out-witted his adversaries at every turn, but there are still big challenges ahead, particularly the new threats from Poroshenko.
...

Read the whole thing here

And another one...
I don't speak German, and Google Translate is shyte, but I think I got the gist of what the article is about, and I must say that I'm very impressed.
Don't know how how credible this source is, but it's quoting various military experts.

NATO expressed behind closed doors excited about the warfare of the Russians in Ukraine: Moscow practicing the perfect blend of a modern use. Small groups, anonymous fighters, utmost discipline and cyber war. When Nato you look with envy on the Russian skills. Western military observers even speak a "masterful" style of modern warfare, as the FT reported.

"I was impressed. This excellent approach This was a precise and perfectly calibrated operation (...) -. Silent but deadly effective, "the FT quoted the British military expert Jonathan Eyal. The West was unprepared from the outset, so the estimate of the Director of International Studies at the Royal United Services Institute.

Western experts are particularly taken from the Russians variants wealth: "In the Crimea there was a skillful concentration of forces. In the eastern Ukraine, there are more specialized units. There is a small number - a very small number, "said a senior NATO officer to the Financial Times. The mercenaries would do their job and disappear very quickly again. Then the field was left to the militias. Examples of this approach are about six-man groups that are equipped with expensive Russian device. You deceive sniper rifles of the type WSS Wintorez and be dressed like special forces. They were observed as they supported the rebels.

Play a special role in the agents of the Russian export and domestic intelligence SWR and FSB. Dive as civilians. NATO, gluabt but to have them identified by their area of ​​application, their body language and behavior. Still, there is only circumstantial evidence. But: "For Russia, the Ukraine is an internal affair," said Nigel Inkster, former number two in the British MI6.

Read the whole thing:
In German
In English (Google Translate)

I highly recommend this article.

Vann7 wrote:

Don't celebrate too early.. Kiev still can receive free weapons and endless wave of mercenaries from NATO ,until no Jail in europe or Ukraine have anyone left.   

I'm not celebrating....just tentatively optimistic.

And then you have NATO drones..and more precision artillery and They can send attack drones and make a living nightmare of Independence forces..

Yeah sure   

I heard they're getting this next week...

Im quite surprised the Rebels have not been wiped already..

Because the only force capable of wiping them out is the regular Ukr. Army, which is basically a non functioning entity atm. The oligarchs have to offer reward money for their pilots to fly combat missions for fuk's sake

....

Reinforcements at Gorlovka...said to have crossed the border yesterday


...

And some " Kremlin Propaganda" regarding the Lugansk airstrike on June 2

Cyberspec wrote:I don't understand where you people get these silly notions about the situation in Ukraine   Yeah sure they can join EU/NATO (hell will freeze over before it happens IMO) but without the SE regions.

Another week has gone by and the regime forces still haven't managed to retake anything. They claimed they've taken Krasnij Liman but all they took was a checkpoint in a outer suburb (I believe it's called Caricin) and have been pushed back since with losses. Their own intelligence is telling the president that   they have to finish this operation soon or the fighting will spread west, as they believe the rebels are training a force of 10-15000 fighters in the rear. They've thrown just about everything they've got at the rebels and are running out of serviceable equipment. Their airforce has suffered significant losses and now has to fly high making their targeting ineffective.

They don't trust their own Army and have to rely on right wing and private militias. Yes they can shell from a distance, but how do you expect such a force to take and hold major urban centres    

.....

Regarding the arrest of Ponomarjev, it hasn't been confirmed. But Strelkov has ordered the arrest of a mayor of a town in the Donetsk region (the husband of the ex mayor of Slavjansk who turned pro regime) and several other officials who were moles for the Kiev regime. Apparently they'll be taken to the frontline in Semenovka to dig trenches.

.....

This is what Russia expects will happen in Ukraine...

According to Glazyev, financial capabilities of Donbas will allow the region to avoid a sharp decline in living standards that the rest of Ukraine will see.

“According to our estimates, production in Ukraine will slump by at least 10 percent, and the hryvna [Ukraine’s national currency] will weaken at least by half. On the back of increasing tariffs and decreasing social benefits, freezing of budgetary workers’ salaries, Ukraine is prone to see its living standards decline by half,” Glazyev said.

At the same time the president’s aide stressed that Donbas can potentially increase its living standards by half, and become the most prosperous region of the new Ukraine.

Donets Basin Has Potential to Set Autonomous Financial System

......

Nice prize. Captured Mandate-B1E jammers being driven away from the seized Topaz plant



More info: http://topaz.dn.ua/ru/product_mandat.html

.

I managed to build a trustworthy intelligence on the spot and they more or less agree with your assessment.
Actually they are even more positive. And I speak about people who live there and have their families and fortunes meaning that they can't jerk off, they are pretty serious when talking
and we are not talking about Russians who are, lets say, subjective but Greeks who are a little more distant after all.
Anyway, result always tell who is right and who is wrong.

Mak and Arapakola,

interesting stuff...thanks.

Hanibal wrote:Anyway, result always tell who is right and who is wrong.

Off course

....

They are besieging a tank base at Artemovsk. Surrender negotiations have failed and there's been a firefight during which the brigade commander was wounded. As you can see from the pictures, there's quite an arsenal inside

  www.bmpd.livejournal.com/883942.html

Cyberspec wrote:Mak and Arapakola,

interesting stuff...thanks.

Hanibal wrote:Anyway, result always tell who is right and who is wrong.

Off course

....

They are besieging a tank base at Artemovsk. Surrender negotiations have failed and there's been a firefight during which the brigade commander was wounded. As you can see from the pictures, there's quite an arsenal inside

  www.bmpd.livejournal.com/883942.html

How can so many tanks and armor be in a Donetsk Base?
I though the Rebels had the full control of Donetsk ,and only Slavyanks and krama being contested.. Now suddenly they have all the time
under their noses a base in their territory with Tanks with armored vehicles base that show up from the Nothing.. whats going on here?

=======================

Vann7 wrote:


How can so many tanks and armor be in a Donetsk Base?
I though the Rebels had the full control of Donetsk ,and only Slavyanks and krama being contested.. Now suddenly they have all the time
under their noses a base in their territory with  Tanks with armored vehicles base that show up from the Nothing..  whats going on here?  

It's a town near Slavjansk and Kramatorsk. It's a major armor depot where they kept conserved equipment. If it falls it will be a major boost equipment wise.

....

3 scumbags who took part in the Odessa masacre have been assasinated....a hunt has been declared on the rest of them (the ones that have been ID'd from footage)

http://www.imperiya.by/news.html?id=134906

Cyberspec wrote:
3 scumbags who took part in the Odessa masacre have been assasinated....a hunt has been declared on the rest of them (the ones that have been ID'd from footage)

http://www.imperiya.by/news.html?id=134906

You know the Russians had announced that the scumbags would be punished.

  http://en.itar-tass.com/world/735708

I believe that earlier they had made a similar announcement about the scumbags who were responsible for the Odessa crimes.

By the way, what's the name of the successor to SMERSH?

Cyberspec wrote:....

3 scumbags who took part in the Odessa masacre have been assasinated....a hunt has been declared on the rest of them (the ones that have been ID'd from footage)

http://www.imperiya.by/news.html?id=134906

Excellent news! Good riddance!
This is what I suggested times and times again here. Now the rest of that scum is probably sh/tting bricks!
<humble>Putin finally read this forum and took my advice!</humble> 

Good news coming from Odessa. Perhaps pro-Russian will grip on some action against maidanut Gov and seize control over city in next weeks?

I hope that DNR will capture tankbase, but they will need to protect themselves from air coverage, at least manpad squads some distance to the base to take on incoming air threats.

Those T-72 and T-80 should be priority now.

Seems Crimea flights are in great demand. Tourism will be booming this year.
Crimea in demand as Aeroflot adds two more daily flights
Aeroflot’s low-cost subsidiary Dobrolyot will carry 200,000, bringing a combined airline total of between 650,000 and 700,000 passengers this year, three times more than in 2013

Fighting continues in Donbass.
Fighting between self-defence units and Ukraine troops outside Donetsk continues
Three armored vehicles and five buses with Ukrainian soldiers had arrived to the site, the source notes

Tass

That story from Odessa could well be a фейк BTW. At the very least, it's a pretty old story, well over a month old.

There was an anti-Maidan activist who appeared in a vid a month ago that claimed that all the stories about revenge attacks are rubbish, etc...

fragmachine wrote:Good news coming from Odessa. Perhaps pro-Russian will grip on some action against maidanut Gov and seize control over city in next weeks?

I hope that DNR will capture tankbase, but they will need to protect themselves from air coverage, at least manpad squads some distance to the base to take on incoming air threats.

Those T-72 and T-80 should be priority now.

If the Odessa Druzhina rises up then they'll be able to count on some assistance from Pridnestrovie; supplies, volunteers, weapons, etc... and unlike Russia the Pridnestrovians don't give a shit about any Western sanctions.

macedonian wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:....

3 scumbags who took part in the Odessa masacre have been assasinated....a hunt has been declared on the rest of them (the ones that have been ID'd from footage)

http://www.imperiya.by/news.html?id=134906

Excellent news! Good riddance!
This is what I suggested times and times again here. Now the rest of that scum is probably sh/tting bricks!
<humble>Putin finally read this forum and took my advice!</humble> 

The "action" has to be transfered to LVOV.
That will be the turning point . When they fell that they have to protect THEIR home. This is when they will stop thinking tours to Donbass