The Situation in the Ukraine. #5

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

macedonian wrote:

arpakola wrote:

macedonian wrote:Putin hails Poroshenko's 'positive thinking' on settling crisis after D-Day meeting

RT wrote:Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s president-elect Petro Poroshenko have briefly spoken on the sidelines of the D-Day anniversary celebrations in Normandy. They called for both sides to "stop violence and military actions" in eastern Ukraine.

Both leaders “have spoken for a prompt end to bloodshed in southeast Ukraine as well as for an end to military actions from both sides – from the side of the Ukrainian armed forces and the supporters of federalization of Ukraine,” said Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov.

RT

WTF?!!

Putin might as well say: "We don't really care how many Russians you kill, or have killed...It's not like they are same as us or anything..."
If Putin isn't trolling (or seriously threatened by the west with nuclear strikes) I don't know how else to regard this other than COWARDLINESS от Владимир Владимирович Pussyn!!! The man I once held in high regard is a mere shadow of the man I thought him to be...To say that I'm disappointed doesn't really cover it! The man better have said this while having his own plans of turning the situation in Russia's favor!!!

   

Let's wait for  say a month
The enemy is at the other side of atlandic.

Donbass is the new Russia. After all

I hope you're right.
I really do. I'm dumbfounded by Russia's actions in all of this. Or non-actions rather.

No different from Russian actions before "22 June 1941" or before ... or before ...

For more than a week or two after the "June 22nd event", "Stalin" was "arguing" that nothing had happened ...

I understand the feelings, but if Russia makes a Crimea-like move here, then by induction what would their next move is to be? What would their move following their next move is to be?

If they wanted to make all of those moves now, why would the Russians expel Ukraine and ... from Russia to begin with?

Don't search for the answers in the popular "explanations" of all of these phenomena; there can never be any truth in those popular "explanations"; all of those are prole-feed. You need to be mathematical about these things.

It would all happen, but not now.

Problem is that Russian diplomacy is so complex that ending up confusing even their own people that exert the policies!
Being direct may not be the best way according to traditional diplomacy (I disagree I have my own theory anyway) but twisting for the sake of it is certainly not better.
Russia IS an untrustworthy country that can have no serious allies. To ally with someone you need to understand him and rely upon him, Russia is not such,
don't know the reason, can't be a sound explanation anyway but until this change Russia will be destined to be isolated and harassed and this was one of the main reasons
why lost cold war 1 as well.

You know for a while now i have been wanting to comment on this issue of Russia's/Putin's lack of support for the Pro-Russian rebels, and all i can think of was a book i ones read.
It goes like this:

A capable young commander who was recently promoted to his new rank and commanding a cavalry unit, was watching the infantry that went in getting mowed done by enemy chariots for an excessive amount of time and continuously asks if the general had issued the order for the to move out to assist, after his patience ran out he assumed that something was wrong with there signal system and was preparing move his unit out, but was stopped by the more experienced fellow officers, and the officer said, did you come here to safe some foot soldiers or did you come here to beat the enemy.

And that's pretty much how i see it.  

So, what do you guys think?

Regular wrote:Vlad showing his true colors. Disgrace. 

So Russia IS helping.. the rebels.. not directly but still are helping them.

They let Ukr plane cross the border and bomb the shit out of rebels. Russian borderguards helped injured Ukrainian colleagues at Marlinovka battle and even disarmed remaining rebels. 

Russia cannot directly do anything that it could look they helping the Rebels..
So you really believe Russia will do things ,that will help nazis to kill Russians?
Russian Borderguards simply cannot do anything to intervene UNTIL they given the order.
Russia main goal is for the violence to end so that they are not forced to Invade..

NATO goals is to force Russia TO INVADE ,to damage their economy and to begin their false flag operation and campaing
of discredit against Russia. To brainwash ukrainians even more that Russia is the source of their problems and their enemy.

The question should be ,you really think the Rebels will be able to infiltrate trucks in Ukraine from
Russia if there was no help from the Russian Border Patrols? So neither Russia wants violence ,but neither Russia
wants the Ukraine army to wipe the Rebels and all end killed.. Including the ones who led the revolution. Russia
is even pushing for humanitarian corridors to save the leaders of the Rebellion or any civilian who desire to leave.
Since the Border guards have orders of no interference ,they cannot Directly help any side or take any side.
From where the Rebels get so many manpads? Russia help the rebels indirectly ,but the help is only good enough
for them to defend cities ,not to continue expanding and taking more Ukraine territory.. Because unfortunately
For the Rebels ,the support in other cities ,people participation is catastrophic .. in Mariupol only 50 grandmas were defending
a building.. how can Russia help them if Ukrainians not even show in rallies or take control of cities..  Had there been Millions
and millions of rallies in all South and eastern cities ,will a total participation of people.. things will have been different. And Russia either sending more help or invading.. but if people activism is very very poor .catastrophic ,and they expect Russia to come to their rescue
without them doing nothing .there is nothing Russia can do.. other than weapons here and there for self defense.

Had there been a consistent 50,000 - 100,000 people rallies every day non stop on each city ,from Odessa to Kharkiv ,
it will have been impossible for Kiev to use its army ,effectively and isolate the Rebels to a small zone..and already they raised
and army to defend themselves.. see? Russia invasion not even will have been needed. Point is.. If people want Independence they need
to fight for it. It will be a terrible mistake for Russia to invade a city where half the people do not want them there. Russia Economy cannot
handle the annexation of Donetsk and Lugansk.. it will be unwise for Putin to take territory that later could also Rebel against them.. see?
If for example their quality of life have not improved. Putin will try to convince Donetsk and Lugansk to remain withing Ukraine while he
negotiate for full autonomy for them.. Russia only interest is security for Russians in the Rebel zones.

Had Russia been more integrated with Euro Asia ,and not dependent of the EU ,things could have been a lot different and they simply
say to Hell with the EU or USA.  and simply Invade and take Ukraine ,and will had a stronger economy to support their invasion. But Russia
for now wants to avoid , giving any pretext to Obama ,to blackmail the EU more and force them to cut all trade relations with RUssia.


So the way to see things is from a LONG TERM point of view. Ukraine have a debt of USD $3.5 billions ,thats a lot of money ,who is going to
pay for that if they invade and disband Ukraine now? wouldn't be better that Ukraine pay all their debts before invading using american money to pay their debt?   

In the long term ,Ukraine will be bankrupt ,give them a year or two or at most 3 years. once near everyone is without a job ,and Ukrainians
discover that joining the EU made things much WORSE ,and did NOT turned their streets in Gold ,or gave them any prosperitiy they were promised , and do not improve their quality of life.. then.. only then.. is when the REAL REVOLUTION will start. And even the Nazis will plead Russia to take them back. All those PRO-EU political parties will vanish ,after they See by experience that joining the EU was a catastrophic mistake and that the IMF loans are killing them. By that time is when Russia can easily take Ukraine , and without firing
a single shot.    So for now the  only thing that could force Russia to invade Ukraine are purely humanitarian reasons and nothing else.
and their indirect help to rebels only goal is to keep the Nazis away from the the Pro Russian zones.

So putin policy in Ukraine is. better wait a little more and take all Ukraine ,than to invade now and take only 2 regions ,but having a never ending proxy war against them fueled by NATO. With all Ukraine media blaming Russia for their economy problems. and not the EU.

AlfaT8 wrote:You know for a while now i have been wanting to comment on this issue of Russia's/Putin's lack of support for the Pro-Russian rebels, and all i can think of was a book i ones read.
It goes like this:

A capable young commander who was recently promoted to his new rank and commanding a cavalry unit, was watching the infantry that went in getting mowed done by enemy chariots for an excessive amount of time and continuously asks if the general had issued the order for the to move out to assist, after his patience ran out he assumed that something was wrong with there signal system and was preparing move his unit out, but was stopped by the more experienced fellow officers, and the officer said, did you come here to safe some foot soldiers or did you come here to beat the enemy.

And that's pretty much how i see it.  

So, what do you guys think?

Yes I think this is accurate. Russia will not act just yet (this whole drama is far from over and Russia can, and will act later).

It is looking to de-escelate the situation for now, giving the impression that what this is what it's going for.
Which it is - if such a de-escalation were to happen in the only conceivable way it could - the Ukraine cancels its ATO and moves to negotiate with the rebels, with the end result being a Federalized Ukraine.
But that's not going to happen. It's obvious to everyone that Kiev has no such intentions by now.
Therefore, the aim of Putin meeting with Poroshenko, and exclaiming the same things that Lavrov did following the Geneva conference - of both sides mutually disarming (Putin also called for Poroshenko to stop the punitive operation immediately at the same speech) - is not to implement that plan. Everyone knows that it's unrealistic, and that Kiev will not withdraw its military forces. This is just a war of words and diplomacy.

Moscow will fulfill all of its obligations. Kiev won't.
Then this will maybe repeat a couple of times. And you will see how European opinions turn.

What you guys are missing is that this battle is not about Russia vs. the West.

It's about Russia vs. the US - in terms of who will be able to isolate who. The US has had a huge initial advantage due to Russia's seizure of the Crimea and the EU-sympathetic Maidan movement winning out.
But Russia's not giving up the fight - it's willing to wait a while, while the casualties ramp up. It's cynical of course, but then NATO also needed its casualties in Bosnia and Albania - before it started the bombing campaign, Russia also needed an invasion from Chechnya and the bombing of the Moscow apartments, before it launched a new invasion of Chechnya in 1999.

It's all very cynical, but this is the way such things work.
It took the US 6 months of 'prepping' its population, pro-war propaganda, etc... before it was ready to invade Iraq. During that same time-frame, the US was busy actually laying the military groundwork and logistics, battle-plans, etc... too

In just the same way, Russia will have to do the same work for intervention into the Ukraine. Russia's also waiting for the public opinion of the Ukraine's population itself to begin to turn anti-war - which is another critical point.
This will also be hastened by the Ukraine's coming economic collapse - which again, needs some more time to take its full effect.
But I will tell you this - I'm convinced that we are on the road to intervention. About half-way there, maybe a little less. Overall time-frame is 6 months give or take. Unless Poroshenko miraculously agrees to federalization, Russian language official status and military-economic neutrality - this is where we're going. Nothing else is acceptable to Russia; Crimea is not the goal - it's simply the foothold to achieve a larger objective.

There are so many factors at work. Hannibal paints it too simplistically. In the modern globalized world - where there are such a huge glut of factors at work due to the inter-connectivity of everything; such diplomatic strategies are exactly what's needed.
And they are hardly exclusive to Russia.

Just look at this... recent news..

Pentagon to send military advisers to Ukraine

Obama said that the US was providing additional $5 million aid for "the provision of body armor, night vision goggles
and additional communications equipment."

It should be clear for anyone that the Exceptional americans what they want is war.. but that Ukrainians do the fight for them.
The Neocons Thugs at the white house will lose BIG TIME ,and major defeat ,if there peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia happens.
So they will try to sabotage any kind of good relations possible between Ukraine and Russia..  If Russia invade now ,will make more easier
for them , to provoke both sides to endlessly fight. With CIA snipers shooting at both Ukraine army soldiers but also Russian soldiers.
NATO pilots could be recruited to fly Ukrainian Combat jets and drops bombs in kiev killing civilians and later Ukrainian NATO media blame Russia for it.

The Criminals Neocons MAfia simply want endless war between Ukraine and Russia ,and Putin patience is aiming at doing the opposite ,
to demonstrate Kiev that they are interested to improve their relations and solve all differences with diplomacy.

http://rt.com/news/164324-usa-military-advisers-ukraine/

So the Future of Ukraine will depend heavily if Poroshenko manage to see ,whats going on ,and understand the games being played
against them.His own life will be in Danger in Big danger if the exceptional western elite believe Poroshonko will negotiate with Russia for peace. It also however can depend if Ukrainians see that too..  That Obama only interest in their nation is to see their blood filling the streets while fighting Russia. The Nobel Peace Price Obomination  leader can be defeated with all his legions of demons..It all depends of awareness of Ukranians about whats going on in their nation and why they fight and for who really they are fighting. This is the reason 90% of the Syrians remained largely united..with Assad. Took like 2 years the Syrian Government to educate all its citizens ,of what was really going on. And that Assad was supportive of a more democratic nation.They all believed the CNN Lies ,that the Syrian army was killing civilians women and children. And just like in Kiev.. there was Snipers shooting in rallies at both sides. Look for example in the next video
how Mossad Sweedish Snipers were caught shooting at anti-Government protest in TUnisia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN3tp8Jw3DA


Thats how NATO operates ,to provoke wars. Will be very hard for Ukrainians to wake up ,while all their media is controlled by NATO. So factual Media will also will play a huge role in countering western propaganda of what happens in Ukraine and the awakening of Ukrainians.

Some posters here are way to emotional    Which is sort of understandable under the circumstances (I'm guilty of it too sometimes)

IMO, Russia won't intervene because that is EXACTLY what the other side wants. They are escalating the provocations lately but they haven't yet started mass shelling of cities even though they could quite easily flatten smaller cities and towns like Slavyansk, KL and so on.

If serious talks happen (which I doubt), like F. Python wrote they would have to accept the realities on the ground and accept the rebels as a negotiating partner.

If the fighting continues, then I would expect Russia to play on the humanitarian card (they've already announced it). In practice that should mean an increase of supplies to the rebels so that they can organise a proper fighting force and increase it's size from a few thousand to a few tens of thousands. And you can't have such a force without proper logistics.....IMO, that's why they're clearing the border posts on the Russian border.

....

A shaky video of the An-30 shootdown



From a different angle from TV Zvezda

  http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201406061920-pjzk.htm

Some Kiev propaganda



...

Destroyed Ukr. vehicles being moved from the front lines

Putin to french media. 30 minute interview about Russia relations with europe. Ukraine, and U.S.



i love his remark about placing further contracts among the EU weapon industry.

the EU millitary-industrial machine already sells radar-tech, aircraft engines, ship technology and missile weaponry to China. to the great frustration of the U.S. ...not to mention the latest deal of fighter-aircraft with Brazil.

Thales, Rheinmetall and Siemens already expressed (and  in some cases committed) to modernising the Russian millitary. the U.S insisted France sold the Carriers to NATO. but Hollande insists those carriers get delivered to Russia regardless. saying jobs, money and contract obligations are "more valuable".

and meanwhile Estonia, greece, Czechs and Slovakia are all protesting NATO in their own way.

Ukr. media reporting that their aircraft were targeted by Russian aircraft during the Marinovka crossing fight...

Ukrainian pilots performed combat missions at the checkpoint "Marinovka" under the aim of Russian aircraft.

"During the fight at the checkpoint" Marinovka "with Ukrainian aircraft was raised by Russian aviation and our pilot reported that while carrying out combat missions he was constantly in sight of two Russian aircraft," - said Chumak.

"Modern aircraft are equipped with systems that notify that the aircraft is targeted by enemy cannon or  missiles," - he added.

  http://www.unian.net/politics/926269-vo-vremya-boya-v-marinovke-ukrainskogo-pilota-vzyali-na-pritsel-dva-samoleta-rf-deputat.html

Airbornewolf wrote:Putin to french media. 30 minute interview about Russia relations with europe. Ukraine, and U.S.



i love his remark about placing further contracts among the EU weapon industry.

the EU millitary-industrial machine already sells radar-tech, aircraft engines, ship technology and missile weaponry to China. to the great frustration of the U.S. ...not to mention the latest deal of fighter-aircraft with Brazil.

Thales, Rheinmetall and Siemens already expressed (and  in some cases committed) to modernising the Russian millitary. the U.S insisted France sold the Carriers to NATO. but Hollande insists those carriers get delivered to Russia regardless. saying jobs, money and contract obligations are "more valuable".

and meanwhile Estonia, greece, Czechs and Slovakia are all protesting NATO in their own way.  

What kind of further contracts? Will be nice that Putin ,just to annoy The US Neocon Senate.. that Russia order
now with Spain 1x Juan Carlos I ,aircraft carrier warship



But also order also a dozen attack drones from germany and a license to build them and also order several dozens spike
missiles with israel and that later putin makes jokes about Obama Sanctions..  

edit..
Apparently the Rebels now control one border checkpoint between Ukraine and Russia..
Ukraine: Anti-Kiev forces control Dovzhansky border with Russia

flamming_python wrote:

Yes I think this is accurate. Russia will not act just yet (this whole drama is far from over and Russia can, and will act later).

It is looking to de-escelate the situation for now, giving the impression that what this is what it's going for.
Which it is - if such a de-escalation were to happen in the only conceivable way it could - the Ukraine cancels its ATO and moves to negotiate with the rebels, with the end result being a Federalized Ukraine.

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.
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Good post FP. I gave you my vote.

To our posters who are disappointed for not seeing Russian tanks (with Putin on top of one of course) rolling into Ukraine:
Just bring some beer and popcorn, this thing is faaaaaaaaar from over (unless Poroshenko accepts immediate outright federalization etc.).
The article below will shed the light to you all. I strongly recommend you all to read it:

Karabakhization of Eastern Ukraine as Russia Embraces China
 

The Ukrainian people have spoken (!), and it's obvious they don't know what they are talking about. The much anticipated presidential election in Ukraine, in which according to international sources only sixty percent of the eligible population participated in the voting process, saw the election of the "Chocolate King", a billionaire and a former Yanukovych official. Ukraine has thus gone a full circle and is back where it started, with an oligarch at the helm - but without the Crimean peninsula, without peace, without political stability, without financial stability, without economic stability, without large swathes of eastern Ukraine. What we have seen in Ukraine in recent months is typical, Western style democracy at work. Ukrainians have gone out of their way to prove to us all that the worst thing a developing society needs is Western style democracy. And the funniest part? The new president elect, although an outspoken advocate of EU integration, has nevertheless proposed to maintain ties with Moscow (he does after all have significant business interests in Russia) and keep Ukraine out of NATO. No wonder President Putin seemed somewhat conciliatory in recent weeks.
 

But Ukraine today is a broken nation and the so-called Chocolate King will prove to be a figurehead, a puppet who's strings will be pulled from afar. For the time being, Western powers will be the ones ultimately calling the shots in Kiev - as Moscow will be calling the shots in the east and south. Ukraine, like Syria, has thus become an unwitting proxy in the geostrategic struggle taking place between the world's two most powerful superpowers. Nevertheless, regardless of the political situation in Kiev, the Russian-backed grassroots insurgency in eastern and southern Ukraine has now firmly taken root. This movement will not stop for too much blood has already been spilled. 

Karabakhization

Bloody clashes between pro-Russian Ukrainians and regime supporters in recent weeks have only served to harden the resolve on both sides of the political spectrum. Due to the particularly cruel deaths of dozens of civilians in Odessa several weeks ago and the on going military raids by the junta in Kiev in which civilians are being killed, a permanent wedge is being placed between east and west. Fear, hate and an urge for revenge are some of the psychological factors driving people into action throughout the region. Ethnic and ideological divisions in Ukraine have reached their point-of-no-return. This conflict has the potential to go on for many years - and Russian officials, understandably, seem content.
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Rest of article is here: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.ae/

flamming_python wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:You know for a while now i have been wanting to comment on this issue of Russia's/Putin's lack of support for the Pro-Russian rebels, and all i can think of was a book i ones read.
It goes like this:

A capable young commander who was recently promoted to his new rank and commanding a cavalry unit, was watching the infantry that went in getting mowed done by enemy chariots for an excessive amount of time and continuously asks if the general had issued the order for the to move out to assist, after his patience ran out he assumed that something was wrong with there signal system and was preparing move his unit out, but was stopped by the more experienced fellow officers, and the officer said, did you come here to safe some foot soldiers or did you come here to beat the enemy.

And that's pretty much how i see it.  

So, what do you guys think?

Yes I think this is accurate. Russia will not act just yet (this whole drama is far from over and Russia can, and will act later).

It is looking to de-escelate the situation for now, giving the impression that what this is what it's going for.
Which it is - if such a de-escalation were to happen in the only conceivable way it could - the Ukraine cancels its ATO and moves to negotiate with the rebels, with the end result being a Federalized Ukraine.
But that's not going to happen. It's obvious to everyone that Kiev has no such intentions by now.
Therefore, the aim of Putin meeting with Poroshenko, and exclaiming the same things that Lavrov did following the Geneva conference - of both sides mutually disarming (Putin also called for Poroshenko to stop the punitive operation immediately at the same speech) - is not to implement that plan. Everyone knows that it's unrealistic, and that Kiev will not withdraw its military forces. This is just a war of words and diplomacy.

Moscow will fulfill all of its obligations. Kiev won't.
Then this will maybe repeat a couple of times. And you will see how European opinions turn.

What you guys are missing is that this battle is not about Russia vs. the West.

It's about Russia vs. the US - in terms of who will be able to isolate who. The US has had a huge initial advantage due to Russia's seizure of the Crimea and the EU-sympathetic Maidan movement winning out.
But Russia's not giving up the fight - it's willing to wait a while, while the casualties ramp up. It's cynical of course, but then NATO also needed its casualties in Bosnia and Albania - before it started the bombing campaign, Russia also needed an invasion from Chechnya and the bombing of the Moscow apartments, before it launched a new invasion of Chechnya in 1999.

It's all very cynical, but this is the way such things work.
It took the US 6 months of 'prepping' its population, pro-war propaganda, etc... before it was ready to invade Iraq. During that same time-frame, the US was busy actually laying the military groundwork and logistics, battle-plans, etc... too

In just the same way, Russia will have to do the same work for intervention into the Ukraine. Russia's also waiting for the public opinion of the Ukraine's population itself to begin to turn anti-war - which is another critical point.
This will also be hastened by the Ukraine's coming economic collapse - which again, needs some more time to take its full effect.
But I will tell you this - I'm convinced that we are on the road to intervention. About half-way there, maybe a little less. Overall time-frame is 6 months give or take. Unless Poroshenko miraculously agrees to federalization, Russian language official status and military-economic neutrality - this is where we're going. Nothing else is acceptable to Russia; Crimea is not the goal - it's simply the foothold to achieve a larger objective.

There are so many factors at work. Hannibal paints it too simplistically. In the modern globalized world - where there are such a huge glut of factors at work due to the inter-connectivity of everything; such diplomatic strategies are exactly what's needed.
And they are hardly exclusive to Russia.

  What you guys are missing is that this battle is not about Russia vs. the West.

I think  that Russian politics missing the point.
Yes  the battle is that Protestand west is against all non catholic slavic nations and against Balkans. The opinion that  Clavs and Balkan are 2nd class humans compared to them is a very deep rooted opinion , and that has been proved historicaly in many ocations. Of course now european nations see that they can have relations and benifits with Russia , but...
Russian girls .. will be suspected as potensial hookers .. or capable cleaning stairs  or doing some baby siting at the most.
Russian tycoons .. are never called like that in the west .. but they are called  Oligarhs .. or Russia mafia people.
And dont be fooled, this is not a remain from the cold war.. just go back in the history  and you  will see .

Russia .. missing this point has FAILED to  mobilise the russian opinion , for readyness for confrontation  with the west ,  but west EU included has very well mobilised its own population (with NGOs also)  against Russia. The loss (so fa) of the Ukraine indicates   just that. A minority from LVOV  captured Ukraine.. while Russia was sleeping on the pilow of western cooperation. Perhaps the Ukranian lesson is a very good lesson for russian conception of what happens with EU.

and an other thing..
Time passing .. and if RUSSIA does not give a VERY clear message of practical support to the DONBASS people, they way things may go .. is not what U describe , i.e. mobilasation of the people against KIEV /EU.. but in turn .. even those voted for independance.. may well turn to EU and KIEV ( if they see them as potensial winers) and then Ukraine will be a total loss for RUSSIA.

That loss will not only affect the local security issues, but will have effect to the total external policies of Russia , nobody will count on them.. because who wants as a friend and ally the one that cannot protect its own people.
The international discrace will be Total.

what is left from the An30 downed

arpakola wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:You know for a while now i have been wanting to comment on this issue of Russia's/Putin's lack of support for the Pro-Russian rebels, and all i can think of was a book i ones read.
It goes like this:

A capable young commander who was recently promoted to his new rank and commanding a cavalry unit, was watching the infantry that went in getting mowed done by enemy chariots for an excessive amount of time and continuously asks if the general had issued the order for the to move out to assist, after his patience ran out he assumed that something was wrong with there signal system and was preparing move his unit out, but was stopped by the more experienced fellow officers, and the officer said, did you come here to safe some foot soldiers or did you come here to beat the enemy.

And that's pretty much how i see it.  

So, what do you guys think?

Yes I think this is accurate. Russia will not act just yet (this whole drama is far from over and Russia can, and will act later).

It is looking to de-escelate the situation for now, giving the impression that what this is what it's going for.
Which it is - if such a de-escalation were to happen in the only conceivable way it could - the Ukraine cancels its ATO and moves to negotiate with the rebels, with the end result being a Federalized Ukraine.
But that's not going to happen. It's obvious to everyone that Kiev has no such intentions by now.
Therefore, the aim of Putin meeting with Poroshenko, and exclaiming the same things that Lavrov did following the Geneva conference - of both sides mutually disarming (Putin also called for Poroshenko to stop the punitive operation immediately at the same speech) - is not to implement that plan. Everyone knows that it's unrealistic, and that Kiev will not withdraw its military forces. This is just a war of words and diplomacy.

Moscow will fulfill all of its obligations. Kiev won't.
Then this will maybe repeat a couple of times. And you will see how European opinions turn.

What you guys are missing is that this battle is not about Russia vs. the West.

It's about Russia vs. the US - in terms of who will be able to isolate who. The US has had a huge initial advantage due to Russia's seizure of the Crimea and the EU-sympathetic Maidan movement winning out.
But Russia's not giving up the fight - it's willing to wait a while, while the casualties ramp up. It's cynical of course, but then NATO also needed its casualties in Bosnia and Albania - before it started the bombing campaign, Russia also needed an invasion from Chechnya and the bombing of the Moscow apartments, before it launched a new invasion of Chechnya in 1999.

It's all very cynical, but this is the way such things work.
It took the US 6 months of 'prepping' its population, pro-war propaganda, etc... before it was ready to invade Iraq. During that same time-frame, the US was busy actually laying the military groundwork and logistics, battle-plans, etc... too

In just the same way, Russia will have to do the same work for intervention into the Ukraine. Russia's also waiting for the public opinion of the Ukraine's population itself to begin to turn anti-war - which is another critical point.
This will also be hastened by the Ukraine's coming economic collapse - which again, needs some more time to take its full effect.
But I will tell you this - I'm convinced that we are on the road to intervention. About half-way there, maybe a little less. Overall time-frame is 6 months give or take. Unless Poroshenko miraculously agrees to federalization, Russian language official status and military-economic neutrality - this is where we're going. Nothing else is acceptable to Russia; Crimea is not the goal - it's simply the foothold to achieve a larger objective.

There are so many factors at work. Hannibal paints it too simplistically. In the modern globalized world - where there are such a huge glut of factors at work due to the inter-connectivity of everything; such diplomatic strategies are exactly what's needed.
And they are hardly exclusive to Russia.

  What you guys are missing is that this battle is not about Russia vs. the West.

I think  that Russian politics missing the point.
Yes  the battle is that Protestand west is against all non catholic slavic nations and against Balkans. The opinion that  Clavs and Balkan are 2nd class humans compared to them is a very deep rooted opinion , and that has been proved historicaly in many ocations. Of course now european nations see that they can have relations and benifits with Russia , but...
Russian girls .. will be suspected as potensial hookers .. or capable cleaning stairs  or doing some baby siting at the most.
Russian tycoons .. are never called like that in the west .. but they are called  Oligarhs .. or Russia mafia people.
And dont be fooled, this is not a remain from the cold war.. just go back in the history  and you  will see .

Russia .. missing this point has FAILED to  mobilise the russian opinion , for readyness for confrontation  with the west ,  but west EU included has very well mobilised its own population (with NGOs also)  against Russia. The loss (so fa) of the Ukraine indicates   just that. A minority from LVOV  captured Ukraine.. while Russia was sleeping on the pilow of western cooperation. Perhaps the Ukranian lesson is a very good lesson for russian conception of what happens with EU.

and an other thing..
Time passing .. and if RUSSIA does not give a VERY clear message of practical support to the DONBASS people, they way things may go .. is not what U describe , i.e. mobilasation of the people against KIEV /EU.. but in turn .. even those voted for independance.. may well turn to EU and KIEV ( if they see them as potensial winers) and then Ukraine will be a total loss for RUSSIA.

That loss will not only affect the local security issues, but will have effect to the total external policies of Russia , nobody will count on them.. because who wants as a friend and ally the one that cannot protect its own people.
The international discrace will be Total.

I agree.  Too many Russian members are blind.  They do not understand that regardless what Russia does, they are the bad guys.  Might as well be the bad guys and obtain allies, rather than be the bad guys and lose some (as they are now).  Belarus will be next on NATO agenda.

It is best if Russia does act.  US is pushing for more sanctions against Russia (EU included) even though Russia talked down the rebels.  So regardless of what Russia does, they will be viewed as the enemy.  This is prime opportunity to show not only Russian's, but others that they are not to be messed with, and that US/EU has pushed their limits.  There is so much prime material can be found on Youtube alone about the aggression of Kiev and west, yet they are not using it.  No one outside will care what we post here.  People need to be aware of what is happening, and Putin sitting around is not going to do him any good.

Reason why I think Belarus is next is the constant media propaganda regarding about the "last dictator in europe" and how he is apparently dismantling the economy and people are starving, even though Belarus is doing better than a lot of European countries. So of course, media is pushing against them too right now.

After that, its Russia. And once they have Russia, they will try to split the country up and dismantle it.

Do not wait for any major change at all with Poroshenko.. In the ceremony where he sign as President he talks about Dialogue ,but calls terrorist the Separatist.. and do not recognize the DOnetsk referendum. He is calling for elections in Donet and Lugansk regions. In other words ,Poroshenko plans is to overthrow the authority of the actual leaders of Donetsk elected by the people. By luring people into a new election ,totally ignoring the independence that they already supported. Unless his speech is only aimed to fool the west ,about his hardline stance against the east.. i do not see any improvement at all.. other than military one. Because kiev can easily demand that for the election to be leigitimate Kiev police need to be present securing the event.. So the election proposed by poroshenko could be a trojan horse.

IF you ask me ,the People at kiev cannot be trusted ,they consistently again and again fooled anyone who to a negotiation with them.
Thats how they came to power.  We will see .. what will happen but i suspect that the only way the Rebels will be listened and taken seriously
is that they take full control of all Donetsk and all lugansk ,all the way to the border check points to Russia. And that they will see that
is better to negotiate for a full autonomy and recognize the actual leaders as legitimate than the continuation of the war.

TheArmenian wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Yes I think this is accurate. Russia will not act just yet (this whole drama is far from over and Russia can, and will act later).

It is looking to de-escelate the situation for now, giving the impression that what this is what it's going for.
Which it is - if such a de-escalation were to happen in the only conceivable way it could - the Ukraine cancels its ATO and moves to negotiate with the rebels, with the end result being a Federalized Ukraine.

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Good post FP. I gave you my vote.

To our posters who are disappointed for not seeing Russian tanks (with Putin on top of one of course) rolling into Ukraine:
Just bring some beer and popcorn, this thing is faaaaaaaaar from over (unless Poroshenko accepts immediate outright federalization etc.).
The article below will shed the light to you all. I strongly recommend you all to read it:

Karabakhization of Eastern Ukraine as Russia Embraces China
 

The Ukrainian people have spoken (!), and it's obvious they don't know what they are talking about. The much anticipated presidential election in Ukraine, in which according to international sources only sixty percent of the eligible population participated in the voting process, saw the election of the "Chocolate King", a billionaire and a former Yanukovych official. Ukraine has thus gone a full circle and is back where it started, with an oligarch at the helm - but without the Crimean peninsula, without peace, without political stability, without financial stability, without economic stability, without large swathes of eastern Ukraine. What we have seen in Ukraine in recent months is typical, Western style democracy at work. Ukrainians have gone out of their way to prove to us all that the worst thing a developing society needs is Western style democracy. And the funniest part? The new president elect, although an outspoken advocate of EU integration, has nevertheless proposed to maintain ties with Moscow (he does after all have significant business interests in Russia) and keep Ukraine out of NATO. No wonder President Putin seemed somewhat conciliatory in recent weeks.
 

[b]But Ukraine today is a broken nation and the so-called Chocolate King will prove to be a figurehead, a puppet who's strings will be pulled from afar.
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Rest of article is here: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.ae/

epic article..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ++++++++++++++++++++++

http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.ae

Yes good article.. Middle east is moving towards Russia , Egypt ,Syria ,IRAN ,IRAQ . and the you have Russia flirting with Bahrain and UAE..
and they happy about having closer relations.. And the unthinkable.. Qatar reconsidering his view about Russia ,as a potential ally ,because US ,want to destroy Russia economy by making natural Gas very cheap ,but that will destroy Qatar economy too. And they are in discussions for the creation of a Natural Gas front in the world.. with Russia in the group.. to maintain the world control of Gas prices.

And about Armenia ..there is nothing to worry.. Armenians hate Turkey with passion and they will never ally with USA ,specially not after the Syrian war ,that their own Armenians people have been killed and kicked from their houses thanks to Obama supply of weapons to Terrorist.
The only pivots Russia needs to deal is Ukraine and perhaps to maintain India in their side too..

EU lost its foreign policy sovereignty to US – Marine Le Pen to RT

RT Marine Le Pen wrote:The EU has lost control of its foreign policy to Washington, France's National Front leader Marine Le Pen told RT, calling the bloc's diplomacy a “catastrophe” in which no independent voice of reason could be heard.

“The European Union's diplomacy is a catastrophe,” Le Pen told RT'sSophie Shevardnadze in an exclusive interview to be broadcast Monday. “The EU speaks out on foreign affairs either to create problems, or to make them worse.”

Where Ukraine is concerned, Le Pen believes that Europe had no right to blackmail the country into breaking up its historical and cultural ties to Russia.

“When offering a partnership agreement to Ukraine – which would mean breaking off of its allied relations with Russia – the EU has clearly set blackmail in motion. And that can't help but fuel dissent inside the country,” Le Pen told RT, adding that “pouring oil onto the fire” could lead to an increasing risk of a civil war.

“The EU has been doing nothing but making the situation worse using threats, blackmail and sanctions, which, as we can see now, clearly do not encourage anyone to sit at the negotiation table in order to come up with a peaceful and reasonable solution to the conflict.”

RT

I really want to bring to attention a post made by an mp.net member vis-a-vis the situation in Ukraine, and its similarity to that in Yugoslavia.
This is (obviously) not my post, I'm just copycatting from this guy, but I feel exactly the same way he does.
Especially since I've lived through the clusterfcuk that were the civil wars in Yugoslavia. Fortunately Macedonia was not a part of those, but I've got relatives and friends from Serbia that have felt the consequences of the said wars in a great way (don't want to get into it).


Anyway, here's what he wrote:

Serb member over at mp.net wrote:There are several similarities to the war in Bosnia, during the war, Serbia in an attempt to please western powers even imposed sanction on Serbs to the west of its borders, than got UN observers to supervise border crossings. West didn't change its mind about the sanctions against Serbia itself, it increased "aid" which included weapons/logistics/intel etc etc to the enemies, later on NATO started bombing Serb positions in Bosnia. At the end of 95, Serbs were to weak to resist in Croatia and withdrew east in massive columns, Serbs in Bosnia fared better and managed to hold onto more than half the territory they had during the war, but still many had to abandon their homes. Scenes of people digging up graves of their loved ones and taking them with them were horrible. 4 years later NATO bombed Serbia itself for three months, basically destroying the country. I am not suggesting anybody is going to bomb Russia, but, there will be columns heading east if Putin doesn't get tough with Kiev, even if it means domestic pain.

Anyway, pay less attention to words. More to actions.

So far the FSB border guard have been doing a pretty poor job of preventing truck-loads of armed volunteers from crossing the Russo-Ukrainian border.
Intentionally? Yes I do believe so.

If Putin acts to stem this flow, without Poroshenko agreeing to enter negotiations with the DNR/LNR and start talking about federalization, Russian language status, etc... then Putin really is a traitor, w/o a doubt.

But it's too early too tell for now.

flamming_python wrote:Anyway, pay less attention to words. More to actions.

So far the FSB border guard have been doing a pretty poor job of preventing truck-loads of armed volunteers from crossing the Russo-Ukrainian border.
Intentionally? Yes I do believe so.

If Putin acts to stem this flow, without Poroshenko agreeing to enter negotiations with the DNR/LNR and start talking about federalization, Russian language status, etc... then Putin really is a traitor, w/o a doubt.

But it's too early too tell for now.

You might be right FP. Lord knows I hope you are.
One of the Croatian members here once wrote a saying, we have the same one (must be that all Balkan nations have the same one): "Кој се изгорел од млеко и на јогурт дува", which roughly translated would be: "One that burnt himself on [hot] milk, is now blowing when drinking yogurt too", which would summarize how I really feel on this situation. When they attacked Serbia, I was in London. There were MASSIVE protests there, and I took a part in them. Nothing was reported in the media. A TOTAL blackout it was! They bombed Serbia, and later on brought about a more Pro-Western government. It was obvious that people were duped that their standard of living would be much greater "within a few years only" in merely a few years. As it is quite obvious now. They've repeated the same pattern here in Macedonia with their support to the Albanian "freedom fighters". All of a sudden Mujaheddin from the ME started to appear here, something that we NEVER witnessed before, and all courtesy of Uncle Sam...

1. When they attacked Iraq later on, I kept saying to people: "Iraq is not Serbia! They are a force NOT to be reckoned with"! Turned out I was wrong. I felt really bad on how the empire could bring down a country on obviously false pretenses while obviously disregarding international law!

2. Later on it was Libya! Same pattern! I said to people the same thing: "Just you wait, Gaddafi has some serious weapons. No way the empire can bring him down. Plus, the majority of people like him, it seems". I was proven wrong once again!

3. When talk about Syria started, it was pretty obvious to me that 'they'll use every single trick in the book to make Syria a non-entity. They succeeded there too. Syria is just a shadow of the country it used to be. Syria now is a threat to no one. At least to none of its neighbors (two neighbors in particular).

So, you see why I'm being sometimes a pessimist. It should be quite obvious by now on how much of a Russophile I am. It's just that I've been burned a bit too many times, and now I "blow on yogurt too"...

Having said that, I'M STILL AN OPTIMIST THAT RUSSIA WILL WIN THIS! Hope dies last, they say!
But just like every other human being, I'm guided not only by rational thinking, but also by fears and other emotions too. And this US sponsored game sometimes brings the emotional side of me. I hope you understand.

macedonian wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Anyway, pay less attention to words. More to actions.

So far the FSB border guard have been doing a pretty poor job of preventing truck-loads of armed volunteers from crossing the Russo-Ukrainian border.
Intentionally? Yes I do believe so.

If Putin acts to stem this flow, without Poroshenko agreeing to enter negotiations with the DNR/LNR and start talking about federalization, Russian language status, etc... then Putin really is a traitor, w/o a doubt.

But it's too early too tell for now.

You might be right FP. Lord knows I hope you are.
One of the Croatian members here once wrote a saying, we have the same one (must be that all Balkan nations have the same one): "Кој се изгорел од млеко и на јогурт дува", which roughly translated would be: "One that burnt himself on [hot] milk, is now blowing when drinking yogurt too", which would summarize how I really feel on this situation. When they attacked Serbia, I was in London. There were MASSIVE protests there, and I took a part in them. Nothing was reported in the media. A TOTAL blackout it was! They bombed Serbia, and later on brought about a more Pro-Western government. It was obvious that people were duped that their standard of living would be much greater "within a few years only" in merely a few years. As it is quite obvious now. They've repeated the same pattern here in Macedonia with their support to the Albanian "freedom fighters". All of a sudden Mujaheddin from the ME started to appear here, something that we NEVER witnessed before, and all courtesy of Uncle Sam...

1. When they attacked Iraq later on, I kept saying to people: "Iraq is not Serbia! They are a force NOT to be reckoned with"! Turned out I was wrong. I felt really bad on how the empire could bring down a country on obviously false pretenses while obviously disregarding international law!

2. Later on it was Libya! Same pattern! I said to people the same thing: "Just you wait, Gaddafi has some serious weapons. No way the empire can bring him down. Plus, the majority of people like him, it seems". I was proven wrong once again!

3. When talk about Syria started, it was pretty obvious to me that 'they'll use every single trick in the book to make Syria a non-entity. They succeeded there too. Syria is just a shadow of the country it used to be. Syria now is a threat to no one. At least to none of its neighbors (two neighbors in particular).

So, you see why I'm being sometimes a pessimist. It should be quite obvious by now on how much of a Russophile I am. It's just that I've been burned a bit too many times, and now I "blow on yogurt too"...

Having said that, I'M STILL AN OPTIMIST THAT RUSSIA WILL WIN THIS! Hope dies last, they say!
But just like every other human being, I'm guided not only by rational thinking, but also by fears and other emotions too. And this US sponsored game sometimes brings the emotional side of me. I hope you understand.

If Putin loose east Ukraine then he is politically dead.  Inside and outside.  I guess he knows that. And because leaders are. Remembered. By their last actions.. He will be remembered as chicken ruled by the interest of some Russian poroshenkos

The guy collapsed from sunstrok

I think you all make to harsh criticism against Putin. He already show, that he can strike quickly and suddenly as well that he can wait, when it is needed. It's not only about Ukraine, it's about US empire. You forgot few very important things. At the beginning of Olympic games in Sochi, there was very important meeting between Putin and president of China Xi Jinping and they have long discus. US impose a new cold war against both, Russia and China and do everything, that BRICS group could not be successful. Russia and China have a common strategy against US, which means, first target is US Dollar and US economy. The fall of US economy also means the fall of US military might. This strategy need both China and Russia wait with any war or confrontation, until their money bomb work against USD and US economy and sanctions against Russia push this process in motion. That is exactly why US want to push Russia in war in Ukraine, that this strike against US economy could not work because of war. This is a difference. US want war now, Russia and China could go in war later, when US economy goes down and China become the largest economy on Earth. Putin coordinate his moves with Xi Jinping and this process is now becoming global.

There is also one interesting thing. I read some rumors, but could be true, that Saudi Arabia find out, that Saudi gold reserves in London were stolen (and most probably sold) and this make a change in mind in Saudi Arabia and they now don't see the West as friendly as before. What could indicate, that this could be real is some changes in KSA politics. There was no terrorist attacks in Sochi Olympic games and now KSA pay for Egypt's and Pakistan's weapons deals with Russia. KSA is not exactly a Russian friend, but it was China who talk with Saudis and after big Russia-China gas deal, there were some indications, that Saudi Arabia could also start selling its oil in Juans. Process also go in direction, that all BRICS members will make payments in national currencies and not through London or New York financial centers, but through their BRICS banks and financial centers as Shanghai and Beijing. This will be a major blow for US Dollar and US economy.

A big process is now happening in behind, so it is good for Russia to wait for some time with Ukraine. This process could last for few years, but after it, Ukraine will be on silver plate and West will not be able to do anything.

medo wrote:I think you all make to harsh criticism against Putin. He already show, that he can strike quickly and suddenly as well that he can wait, when it is needed. It's not only about Ukraine, it's about US empire. You forgot few very important things. At the beginning of Olympic games in Sochi, there was very important meeting between Putin and president of China Xi Jinping and they have long discus. US impose a new cold war against both, Russia and China and do everything, that BRICS group could not be successful. Russia and China have a common strategy against US, which means, first target is US Dollar and US economy. The fall of US economy also means the fall of US military might. This strategy need both China and Russia wait with any war or confrontation, until their money bomb work against USD and US economy and sanctions against Russia push this process in motion. That is exactly why US want to push Russia in war in Ukraine, that this strike against US economy could not work because of war. This is a difference. US want war now, Russia and China could go in war later, when US economy goes down and China become the largest economy on Earth. Putin coordinate his moves with Xi Jinping and this process is now becoming global.

There is also one interesting thing. I read some rumors, but could be true, that Saudi Arabia find out, that Saudi gold reserves in London were stolen (and most probably sold) and this make a change in mind in Saudi Arabia and they now don't see the West as friendly as before. What could indicate, that this could be real is some changes in KSA politics. There was no terrorist attacks in Sochi Olympic games and now KSA pay for Egypt's and Pakistan's weapons deals with Russia. KSA is not exactly a Russian friend, but it was China who talk with Saudis and after big Russia-China gas deal, there were some indications, that Saudi Arabia could also start selling its oil in Juans. Process also go in direction, that all BRICS members will make payments in national currencies and not through London or New York financial centers, but through their BRICS banks and financial centers as Shanghai and Beijing. This will be a major blow for US Dollar and US economy.

A big process is now happening in behind, so it is good for Russia to wait for some time with Ukraine. This process could last for few years, but after it, Ukraine will be on silver plate and West will not be able to do anything.

Medo bratu, kaj sem rekel to FP, I say to you as well: I honestly hope that you're right!
I've explained all of my doubts in my previous post, no need to repeat them here. As I've explained why I feel the way I do.