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France suspended arms exports to Turkey
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3815650.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3815650.html
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60 posters
Turkey relations with US and NATO
Poll
Are they leaving the US' influence?
- [ 9 ]
[29%]
- [ 5 ]
- [16%]
- [ 13 ]
- [42%]
- [ 4 ]
- [13%]
Total Votes: 31
George1- Posts : 18520
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Join date : 2011-12-23
Location : Greece
JohninMK- Posts : 15640
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Join date : 2015-06-16
Location : England
It takes a long time to extricate a key supplier out of a huge project like the F-35. Looks like 4-5 years in this case.
MiddleEastWatch
@MiddleEastWatc1
·
14h
Bloomberg on Pentagon officials: Turkey will continue manufacturing parts for American F35 fighters until 2022.
MiddleEastWatch
@MiddleEastWatc1
·
14h
Bloomberg on Pentagon officials: Turkey will continue manufacturing parts for American F35 fighters until 2022.
GarryB- Posts : 40541
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The funny thing is that if it was Ukrainian engines for Russian ships the Ukraine would immediately stop sending parts or completed engines to Russia even if they were already paid for... if Turkey did that then it is pretty clear they think they can start making their own parts by 2022 so they want Turkish components until then... which would mean if Turkey wanted to they could refuse to supply those wings and perhaps talk to Russia about signing Sukhoi up to the National Combat Aircraft Project with TAI and HAVELSAN.
They could probably get a plane that costs less than 40 million to make so sell them at 75 million each to a select group of other countries...
They could probably get a plane that costs less than 40 million to make so sell them at 75 million each to a select group of other countries...
JohninMK- Posts : 15640
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Its not wings Garry, the key big part Turkey makes is the center section of the fuselage, hence the long time to replicate the tooling. By continuing to supply they are showing that they really don't want to piss the US off badly. Imagine the reaction if they shut down the F-35 line for a couple of years!
Isos- Posts : 11602
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They don't care about pissing off US.
Producing the part means lot of incomes and they keep the technology for their own 5th geberation project. And they don't have to give back the money for 100 f-35. Turkey wins on that.
Actually if they decided to stop the production US would be in a bad situation and would have to renegociate with Turkey and sell them the f35. Restructuring the production lines is costly. The delays would have impacts on the already signed contracts with foreign countries because in contracts you always have a line about date delivery so if not respected l&m would have to pay penalities and the jets would be even more expensive than they are. So they would have to renegociates contracts with pretty much everyone.
IMO l&m paid some officials a lot to make them keep producing the parts.
Producing the part means lot of incomes and they keep the technology for their own 5th geberation project. And they don't have to give back the money for 100 f-35. Turkey wins on that.
Actually if they decided to stop the production US would be in a bad situation and would have to renegociate with Turkey and sell them the f35. Restructuring the production lines is costly. The delays would have impacts on the already signed contracts with foreign countries because in contracts you always have a line about date delivery so if not respected l&m would have to pay penalities and the jets would be even more expensive than they are. So they would have to renegociates contracts with pretty much everyone.
IMO l&m paid some officials a lot to make them keep producing the parts.
GarryB- Posts : 40541
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the Turks of course would not benefit enough from just cutting them off and they are probably owed a lot of money for aircraft already paid for, but it is a useful threat to make if they need a lever.
A four year gap in F-35 production might be an opportunity for L&M to catch up on all the problems with the aircraft and try to get some fixed instead of just pissing around.
The loss of sales of 100 aircraft and a change in production for remaining aircraft to a different maker is already going to cost them a lot of money and make more countries reconsider how many they are buying.
It becomes a catch 22 situation ironically... say you have 100 ordered and have agreed to a price but have not paid for them (we are talking billions of dollars so they likely will pay for them in batches to spread to cost over several years budgets) then if they demand another 10-20% in price for those aircraft it puts you in a bad situation. First of all that is several extra billion dollars that have to come from somewhere. Second most countries will baulk at the new price per aircraft.... these are already very expensive and now they just got more expensive... normal knee jerk reaction is to say... do we really need 100 planes... could you manage with 60 instead...
But the huge irony is that you get a better price when you buy in bulk so when buying 100 planes they might have been 120 million each and with the extra ten percent 135 million each so 100 planes would have been 12 billion and then 13.5 billion because of the loss of 100 sales to Turkey and new production for important components... but cutting the purchase down to 60 planes wont decrease the cost by 40% like they hope it would because if you only buy 60 of them then you probably pay 160 million per aircraft, so 60 planes will cost 9.6 billion.
Yes, you don't have to spend as much and it is cheaper, but it is also more expensive for the planes you do get... you are paying more per plane and the spare parts and support contract will likely become more expensive too.
I think Turkey should be happy to be out of it really... I don't think an F-16 with all the stuff that actually works in the F-35 would be worse and it would be much cheaper and faster and cheaper to operate and able to carry a lot more ordinance... and they already have them...
A four year gap in F-35 production might be an opportunity for L&M to catch up on all the problems with the aircraft and try to get some fixed instead of just pissing around.
The loss of sales of 100 aircraft and a change in production for remaining aircraft to a different maker is already going to cost them a lot of money and make more countries reconsider how many they are buying.
It becomes a catch 22 situation ironically... say you have 100 ordered and have agreed to a price but have not paid for them (we are talking billions of dollars so they likely will pay for them in batches to spread to cost over several years budgets) then if they demand another 10-20% in price for those aircraft it puts you in a bad situation. First of all that is several extra billion dollars that have to come from somewhere. Second most countries will baulk at the new price per aircraft.... these are already very expensive and now they just got more expensive... normal knee jerk reaction is to say... do we really need 100 planes... could you manage with 60 instead...
But the huge irony is that you get a better price when you buy in bulk so when buying 100 planes they might have been 120 million each and with the extra ten percent 135 million each so 100 planes would have been 12 billion and then 13.5 billion because of the loss of 100 sales to Turkey and new production for important components... but cutting the purchase down to 60 planes wont decrease the cost by 40% like they hope it would because if you only buy 60 of them then you probably pay 160 million per aircraft, so 60 planes will cost 9.6 billion.
Yes, you don't have to spend as much and it is cheaper, but it is also more expensive for the planes you do get... you are paying more per plane and the spare parts and support contract will likely become more expensive too.
I think Turkey should be happy to be out of it really... I don't think an F-16 with all the stuff that actually works in the F-35 would be worse and it would be much cheaper and faster and cheaper to operate and able to carry a lot more ordinance... and they already have them...
George1- Posts : 18520
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Great!
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-turkey-target-each-other-nato-meeting/
US and Turkey target each other in NATO meeting
Verbal clash during foreign affairs ministerial overshadows report on how alliance should adapt for 2030.
Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slammed Turkey during a virtual meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Tuesday, accusing Ankara of stoking tensions with fellow allies in the Mediterranean and of giving a gift to the Kremlin by purchasing a Russian-made anti-aircraft system.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu fired back, accusing Pompeo of phoning European allies and urging them to gang up on Turkey, of siding blindly with Greece in regional conflicts, and of refusing to sell Ankara U.S.-made Patriot anti-aircraft weapons.
Çavuşoğlu also accused the U.S. of backing Kurdish “terrorist organizations” in Syria, while Turkey fought the Islamic State, and insisted that the U.S. and France had worsened a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by backing Armenia in a war that Azerbaijan won with Turkish military support.
The sharp clash over videoconference, confirmed by multiple allied delegations, came as Pompeo was attending what was likely his last NATO foreign affairs ministerial on behalf of President Donald Trump — a meeting that was intended to focus primarily on a new report about how NATO should adapt for the next decade. Some diplomats speculated that Pompeo was using his last meeting to inflame tensions that could make life difficult for the incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden.
The new report, by an outside group of experts, was commissioned after French President Emmanuel Macron complained last year about conflicts among allies, including Turkey, saying the alliance was experiencing “brain death.” The report urges allies to “pledge themselves to a code of good conduct” and “consider establishing a Centre of Excellence for Democratic Resilience dedicated to providing support to individual allies.”
Several allies backed up Pompeo by speaking out against Turkey, including French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who denounced Ankara’s behavior and said cohesion within the alliance would be impossible to achieve if Turkey mimicked Russia’s aggressive interventionism.
By the end of the meeting, it was clear that Turkey was virtually isolated among the alliance’s 30 members. A renewed call by Çavuşoğlu for NATO to take a role in Libya’s civil war was rejected by the other allies, who have accused Turkey of exacerbating the conflict by sending weapons and mercenaries to support the Government of National Accord based in Tripoli.
After Çavuşoğlu accused Pompeo and the U.S. of taking a maximalist position in favor of Greece regarding conflicts in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias hit back, saying if the Greek position is maximalist, “so is international law.”
Turkey has been at fierce odds with other allies for years, but has also proven the most militarily assertive NATO member, and particularly adept at achieving its objectives with hard power.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan interceded not just in Libya, but also in Syria, where he and Russian President Vladimir Putin largely fashioned the outcome that has kept Bashar al-Assad in power. Most dramatically, Turkey helped Azerbaijan achieve victory in its three-decade conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, with Baku reclaiming swaths of territory.
According to NATO diplomats, Çavuşoğlu had a mixed message on Germany, praising Berlin for acting as an “honest broker” in trying to mediate the conflicts in the Mediterranean but also accusing the Germans of “piracy” over an incident in which German naval forces intercepted and boarded a Turkish ship suspected of trafficking weapons. The Germans were acting under an EU-led arms control mission.
At a news conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sidestepped a question about the sharp exchange between Pompeo and Çavuşoğlu, and instead noted that a NATO “deconfliction mechanism” had helped to ease the conflict between Athens and Ankara.
“We have seen that the deconfliction mechanism has helped to reduce the risk of incidents and accidents,” between the Greek and Turkish militaries, Stoltenberg said. But he added, “it is not solving the underlying main problem.”
That, he said, would depend on a German-led mediation effort, and “the political will of Greece and Turkey.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-turkey-target-each-other-nato-meeting/
ahmedfire- Posts : 2366
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The United States Sanctions Turkey Under CAATSA 231
Today, the United States is imposing sanctions on the Republic of Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) pursuant to Section 231 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for knowingly engaging in a significant transaction with Rosoboronexport, Russia’s main arms export entity, by procuring the S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The sanctions include a ban on all U.S. export licenses and authorizations to SSB and an asset freeze and visa restrictions on Dr. Ismail Demir, SSB’s president, and other SSB officers.
The United States made clear to Turkey at the highest levels and on numerous occasions that its purchase of the S-400 system would endanger the security of U.S. military technology and personnel and provide substantial funds to Russia’s defense sector, as well as Russian access to the Turkish armed forces and defense industry. Turkey nevertheless decided to move ahead with the procurement and testing of the S-400, despite the availability of alternative, NATO-interoperable systems to meet its defense requirements. This decision resulted in Turkey’s suspension and pending removal from the global F-35 Joint Strike Fighter partnership.
Today’s action sends a clear signal that the United States will fully implement CAATSA Section 231 and will not tolerate significant transactions with Russia’s defense and intelligence sectors. I also urge Turkey to resolve the S-400 problem immediately in coordination with the United States. Turkey is a valued Ally and an important regional security partner for the United States, and we seek to continue our decades-long history of productive defense-sector cooperation by removing the obstacle of Turkey’s S-400 possession as soon as possible.
https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/
GarryB, George1, flamming_python, lyle6 and Backman like this post
GarryB- Posts : 40541
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Arrogant Americans thinking Turkey has to follow US policy and US law and do only what pleases the US... Turkey is not allowed to make its own decisions or cooperate with countries the US does not approve of.
I am no expert on Turkey, but how could they possibly comply now without having to hand their testicles to the US too...
France should start negotiations with Russia to buy S-400...
I am no expert on Turkey, but how could they possibly comply now without having to hand their testicles to the US too...
France should start negotiations with Russia to buy S-400...
Backman- Posts : 2706
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Good. The bigger the caatsa club gets, the sooner everyone else will start signing up for the alternatives. Turkey can sign up for Russia's payment system. Russia has already sent the invite.
The Russian government is also in talks to expand SPFS to developing countries such as Turkey and Iran.[6] Owing to its limitations, the SPFS system is seen as a last resort, rather than as a replacement for the SWIFT network.[1] Since 2019 many agreements were reached to link SPFS to other countries payment systems in China, India, Iran, as well as the countries inside the EAEU who are planning to use SPFS directly. SPFS accounts now around 15% of all internal trafficking inside Russia.
China really should have built a parallel system 25 years ago. What where they thinking
The Russian government is also in talks to expand SPFS to developing countries such as Turkey and Iran.[6] Owing to its limitations, the SPFS system is seen as a last resort, rather than as a replacement for the SWIFT network.[1] Since 2019 many agreements were reached to link SPFS to other countries payment systems in China, India, Iran, as well as the countries inside the EAEU who are planning to use SPFS directly. SPFS accounts now around 15% of all internal trafficking inside Russia.
China really should have built a parallel system 25 years ago. What where they thinking
George1- Posts : 18520
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GarryB, lyle6 and Backman like this post
KoTeMoRe- Posts : 4212
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George1 wrote:
Huehuehue, Let's see how far they go with their 8 billion USD budget....
ahmedfire- Posts : 2366
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Most of the Turkish military products are heavily dependent on US/EU technologies .
Germany also stopped it's support to the Turkish tank ,the project has stopped and now Turkey is seeking for the Ukrainian help .
Germany also stopped it's support to the Turkish tank ,the project has stopped and now Turkey is seeking for the Ukrainian help .
Isos- Posts : 11602
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Once they are left with no militray US will invade them. Corona crisis will destroy their economy and they will need a new war.
Erdogan better sell Bosphorus to Russia in exchange of protection.
Erdogan better sell Bosphorus to Russia in exchange of protection.
ahmedfire- Posts : 2366
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Garmin is a US company that provided some Turkish drones with mechanical and communication parts and munitions.
magnumcromagnon- Posts : 8138
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It's amazing, Turkey can invade/wage war with 4 or 5 countries simultaneously and nothing happens. Buy some Russian gear and all hell breaks loose! The current world order is truly rotten to the core!
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ahmedfire- Posts : 2366
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More details
https://www.state.gov/caatsa-section-231-imposition-of-sanctions-on-turkish-presidency-of-defense-industries/
The Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of Treasury, has selected the following sanctions from CAATSA Section 235, as implemented by Executive Order (E.O.) 13849, to impose on SSB:
a prohibition on granting specific U.S. export licenses and authorizations for any goods or technology transferred to SSB (Section 235(a)(2));
a prohibition on loans or credits by U.S. financial institutions to SSB totaling more than $10 million in any 12-month period (Section 235(a)(3));
a ban on U.S. Export-Import Bank assistance for exports to SSB (Section 235(a)(1));
a requirement for the United States to oppose loans benefitting SSB by international financial institutions (Section 235(a)(4)); and
imposition of full blocking sanctions and visa restrictions (Section 235(a)(7), (,8,), (9), (11), and (12)) on Dr. Ismail Demir, president of SSB; Faruk Yigit, SSB’s vice president; Serhat Gencoglu, Head of SSB’s Department of Air Defense and Space; and Mustafa Alper Deniz, Program Manager for SSB’s Regional Air Defense Systems Directorate.
https://www.state.gov/caatsa-section-231-imposition-of-sanctions-on-turkish-presidency-of-defense-industries/
GarryB- Posts : 40541
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China really should have built a parallel system 25 years ago. What where they thinking
It is a real dicotomy though... it is like people complaining that Russia kept using Antonov and Motor Sich products and that left them vulnerable to when the Ukraine cut them off in 2014... but really if Russia had spent money and replaced them much early they would have effectively pushed Ukraine away, but the money they spent replacing what the Ukraine made was spent on other things that were a higher priority and by openly cutting off the Ukraine earlier meant western countries could have cut Russia off earlier so less technology like new thermal imager technology transfer etc etc would have caused problems in other areas.
Very simply if China had built a SWIFT like system 25 years ago the west would have greatly reduced or stopped investment in China 25 years ago because it would be clear they were preparing to jump ship.
Russia didn't ditch the dollar till the US forced them to.
Russia and China are not trying to destroy the US, but they do react when the US uses its dollar and its control of the SWIFT system as a weapon... this is not an attack, this is Russia and China defending themselves... and Turkey is doing the same... the US would not sell Patriot to Turkey so Turkey bought S-400 and now the US is complaining that Turkey didn't buy Patriot instead of S-400.
Most of the Turkish military products are heavily dependent on US/EU technologies .
Germany also stopped it's support to the Turkish tank ,the project has stopped and now Turkey is seeking for the Ukrainian help .
The arrogant Americans think if they cut them off they will collapse and come crawling back and accept much harsher terms...
Turkey could easily replace those awful Black Hawk helicopters with Mi-38s... KRET makes aircraft navigation systems and avionics...
Once they are left with no militray US will invade them. Corona crisis will destroy their economy and they will need a new war.
Erdogan better sell Bosphorus to Russia in exchange of protection.
Russia can sell Sputnik V vaccine to Turkey and they can make it locally... Russia likely does not want the Bosphorus... and I doubt Erdogan would sell it even if they did.
It's amazing, Turkey can invade/wage war with 4 or 5 countries simultaneously and nothing happens. Buy some Russian gear and all hell breaks loose! The current world order is truly rotten to the core!
You can be a bastard, but you have to be our bastard if you want to avoid criticism...
More details
Sounds like a Russian trade delegation needs to go to Turkey and talk Turkey... so to speak...
GarryB- Posts : 40541
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Ironic that the US wants to cook this turkey for Xmas....
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PapaDragon- Posts : 13472
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ahmedfire wrote:Most of the Turkish military products are heavily dependent on US/EU technologies .
Germany also stopped it's support to the Turkish tank ,the project has stopped and now Turkey is seeking for the Ukrainian help .
They should ask North Korea for help, they will get better results
ahmedfire likes this post
GarryB- Posts : 40541
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It is ironic that by seeking help from the Ukraine they still pander to the US by supporting one of its experiments... frankensteins monster needs money and business too.
If Turkey really wanted to get back at the US they should look at Russian and Chinese and also North Korean but also Iranian companies too.
There is a whole world of technology out there and the US and EU is not the centre of the universe when it comes to who makes the best...
At least with cooperation with North Korea they are less likely to have their invested money stolen...
If Turkey really wanted to get back at the US they should look at Russian and Chinese and also North Korean but also Iranian companies too.
There is a whole world of technology out there and the US and EU is not the centre of the universe when it comes to who makes the best...
At least with cooperation with North Korea they are less likely to have their invested money stolen...
lyle6- Posts : 2587
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Couldn't have happened to a nicer country. Get fucked T*rks.
There is no T*rkish tank - the Altay is a Korean tank modified to use a manual loader because T*rks apparently can't figure out an AL. Not that the base design is any good, mind you as the very first thing the Poles have done when they received the Korean proposal is to apply heavy armor upgrades to the turret and hull. The tank also comes with no powerpack options for export because the Koreans couldn't hack one even despite near 20 years in development and the Germans are not really interested in supporting a competitor with their components even before sanctions. Their only choice is the Ukrainian engine and transmission but these have never been installed in any series vehicle, ever. Given how unreliable in service T-84s are I don't even think the Ukrainians have the capability to refine their newer designs anymore. The T*rks are going to be stuck indefinitely with a 65 ton paperweight and there is not much they can do about it.
ahmedfire wrote:Most of the Turkish military products are heavily dependent on US/EU technologies .
Germany also stopped it's support to the Turkish tank ,the project has stopped and now Turkey is seeking for the Ukrainian help .
There is no T*rkish tank - the Altay is a Korean tank modified to use a manual loader because T*rks apparently can't figure out an AL. Not that the base design is any good, mind you as the very first thing the Poles have done when they received the Korean proposal is to apply heavy armor upgrades to the turret and hull. The tank also comes with no powerpack options for export because the Koreans couldn't hack one even despite near 20 years in development and the Germans are not really interested in supporting a competitor with their components even before sanctions. Their only choice is the Ukrainian engine and transmission but these have never been installed in any series vehicle, ever. Given how unreliable in service T-84s are I don't even think the Ukrainians have the capability to refine their newer designs anymore. The T*rks are going to be stuck indefinitely with a 65 ton paperweight and there is not much they can do about it.
flamming_python- Posts : 9547
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lyle6 wrote:Couldn't have happened to a nicer country. Get fucked T*rks.ahmedfire wrote:Most of the Turkish military products are heavily dependent on US/EU technologies .
Germany also stopped it's support to the Turkish tank ,the project has stopped and now Turkey is seeking for the Ukrainian help .
There is no T*rkish tank - the Altay is a Korean tank modified to use a manual loader because T*rks apparently can't figure out an AL. Not that the base design is any good, mind you as the very first thing the Poles have done when they received the Korean proposal is to apply heavy armor upgrades to the turret and hull. The tank also comes with no powerpack options for export because the Koreans couldn't hack one even despite near 20 years in development and the Germans are not really interested in supporting a competitor with their components even before sanctions. Their only choice is the Ukrainian engine and transmission but these have never been installed in any series vehicle, ever. Given how unreliable in service T-84s are I don't even think the Ukrainians have the capability to refine their newer designs anymore. The T*rks are going to be stuck indefinitely with a 65 ton paperweight and there is not much they can do about it.
No point in playing moral arbiter in a world with no morals to speak off, where the only standard followed is rule of the mighty and powerful
A prime opportunity for Russia to step in and offer the Turks co-operation in weaving off NATO tech dependence.
I suspect Erdogan has rather overplayed his hand here. His position was a lot stronger when he could still balance between NATO and Russia and intervene in every neighbour under the sun
If NATO takes a hard-line with Turkey now, they'll be reduced to a B-grade actor dependent on Russian joint-projects and Chinese finance; while Egypt, Syria and other neighbouring countries get an equal amount of co-operation from Moscow to keep the Turks in line.
lyle6- Posts : 2587
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flamming_python wrote:
No point in playing moral arbiter in a world with no morals to speak off, where the only standard followed is rule of the mighty and powerful
A prime opportunity for Russia to step in and offer the Turks co-operation in weaving off NATO tech dependence.
I suspect Erdogan has rather overplayed his hand here. His position was a lot stronger when he could still balance between NATO and Russia and intervene in every neighbour under the sun
If NATO takes a hard-line with Turkey now, they'll be reduced to a B-grade actor dependent on Russian joint-projects and Chinese finance; while Egypt, Syria and other neighbouring countries get an equal amount of co-operation from Moscow to keep the Turks in line.
Its not about policing morals, its simply refusing to enable Turkey with its grand ambitions, ambitions that run counter to Russia and everyone else in the general neighborhood's interest.
Just because the West has grown tired of Turkey doesn't mean Russia has to take Turkey in. Leave them to hang like Ukraine and watch as they implode within.
GarryB- Posts : 40541
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The thing is that we keep hearing about these grand amibitions from Erdogan to restore their empire... but we also keep hearing of the ambitions of Putin to restore the Soviet empire... which if also true shows how incompetent he is because he has had multiple opportunities to absorb former soviet states that he has openly turned down.
There are other explanations for his actions... in fact in both cases that don't require the sort of imperial thinking that goes on continuously in the west... but that is never mentioned.
It makes me think the west is again projecting its own imperial agenda on its perceived opponents in the form of Erdogan and Putin...
There are other explanations for his actions... in fact in both cases that don't require the sort of imperial thinking that goes on continuously in the west... but that is never mentioned.
It makes me think the west is again projecting its own imperial agenda on its perceived opponents in the form of Erdogan and Putin...