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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #13

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    Nikander


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    Post  Nikander Sun May 17, 2015 8:05 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Nikander wrote:Ukraine and the West would gladly let Russia take Donbass. It's not their first choice but if that's what Russia wanted the deal would be quickly made. Most of Russian population would in that situation vanish from Ukraine, and it would be easy to make of the country the most fascist and russophobe place in the world. Putin knows this and that's why he will never recognize Donbass as independent or make it part of Russia. At least not in the present form. If one day Novorossiya becomes independent or joins Russia it will happen with much bigger territory under it's control, you can be sure about that. This game has just begun and nothing is lost. At present Russia loses if they let rebels be overrun or if current territory controlled by rebels becomes independent of Ukraine. On the other hand West and their puppets in Kiev lose if Donbass is part of Ukraine but has an autonomy, meaning if Minsk is implemented. They know that they will lose if it's implemented so it will not be implemented unless situation on the ground forces them to do it. So war will most likely continue sooner or later.

    About Nato bases in Ukraine, again it will never happen in Ukraine as we know it know. Maybe it happens in much smaller Ukraine,  that will have much smaller border with Russia but in Ukraine as it is it will never happen. If Russia senses that things are going in that way they will send the army to Kiev no matter the cost, I have no doubt about that. So this talk about bases and that East won't have any say is not really serious talk. If they won't have any say than what's stopping the West and Kiev from implementing the Minsk deal? Well, because they know that pro Russian Donbass with an autonomy would be like an antivenom spreading all over Ukraine and blocking their poison of hate to take root. Russia is playing the long game, trying to get what it wants without taking big risks or breaking with the West. For Russia and Russians everywhere the best solution would be for Donbass to have autonomy and be part of Ukraine. Ideally that can be achieved peacefully but most likely it will have to be achieved by force with victory in battles until something breaks in Ukrainian society, their ruling class and today's rulers will then be deposed. When hopefully that happens Russia will achieve a complete victory in Ukraine and it would have a much better situation than before all this happened. She would have gained Crimea, Donbass would have an autonomy, the rest of Ukraine would be sick of West and full of disappointment and they wouldn't be able to organize new Maidan  for decades
    because of it if ever.

    Donbas is not a small piece of land. About as big as each of the Baltic states. Ukraine would never give up territory. Even if Donbas is razed to the ground, Ukraine will never give up Donbas. Tom Cruise has a good line in the 1992 movie Far and Away when he said land is the most valuable thing in the world, no one will give you land. Indeed, humanity has fought over land over hundreds of thousands of years. You'd imagine Putin is foolish for not wanting Donbas when the people of Donbas wanted to join Russia in May 2014.

    There are already American troops in Ukraine. The US knows, with US troops in Ukraine, Russia won't dare to invade Ukraine because Russia won't fight a war with the US. Therefore, once the US starts putting military bases in Ukraine, then it's pretty much guaranteed Ukraine would join NATO.


    They would not gave it up formally just like they didn't with Crimea, but really they would because of the reasons I've mentioned before. It's not small piece of land but it's small piece of Ukraine, and they would sacrificed it for neo-Nazi russophobe Ukraine without Russians, with Nato bases. Putin is not foolish, he didn't want Donbass because in it's present form it doesn't do any good for Russia or for people of Donbass for the reasons I also mentioned. Whatever happens this Ukraine crisis will not end with present situation because it doesn't do any good for anybody.
    American troops were in Georgia in 2008. also, in fact they were dying there and Russia did invade there, so no US don't know what are you saying. With or without so called instructors there Russia will invade if will have to and US won't do shit because it's them that won't fight war with Russia. They will get their reward in complete enslavement of Europe but they will not fight Russia in her backyard. And bases are coming after joining Nato and not before. If they start putting them before then again Russian army will be in Kiev.
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    Post  BKP Sun May 17, 2015 8:09 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:I think the annihilation of the Ukrainians near Illovaisk was the proper Russian response for that move.

    No it wasn't. Donbas resistance deserves more credit than they are given. Afterall, Ukraine inherited huge piles of Soviet arms, and so did Donbas. If Russian regular troops were involved, Kiev would have fallen, not just Illovaisk.

    Exactly. People here are clinging to hopes and possibilities. but are not seeing what is happening. Kiev still goes ahead and kills people, donbass in dire need of assistance in goods/equipment, and Kiev foaming at mouth anti Russian stance allows them to kill innocense around the country with impunity, and they get to survive longer to do that, by getting cheap gas from Russia, as well as Russia not demanding their money back. So effectively, Russia is aiding kiev in their murders like US is.

    Do you know how much Russia is presently charging Ukraine for gas, and what market value should be based on the price charged to other countries?
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sun May 17, 2015 8:10 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Cowboy's daughter wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    You are sadly mistaken.  Ukraine was lost in 1991 and not on Putin's watch.

    1) Putin had no way of stopping the brainwashing of a whole generation by Ukraine's corrupt oligarch mass media.
    This brainwashing is central to the whole crisis.

    2) Russia was and still is in no position to use force to impose its will.   This is a critical point too.   Washington is
    so cocky because it knows that the cards are stacked in its favour.  If Russia sends troops to the Donbas it will
    be a major NATO propaganda victory and will put Russia on the defensive for a long time.   The maggots in Washington
    will screech about Russian invasions and aggressions for decades.   Currently, they sound like idiots when they try
    to push this propaganda line and are slowly losing the propaganda war around the world and even at home.

    3) You break it, you buy it.   By sending forces into Ukraine Russia will "own" Ukraine's problems.   The Kiev regime
    will have a major gift "validating" all of its lies and getting all the brainwashed Ukr sheep to herd more tightly around it.
    Instead it is now sinking together with the ship called Ukraine.   The economic and hence political collapse of Ukraine
    is the only tool Russia has and it is the best tool by far.  It will sour brainwashed Ukrs on the propaganda they consume
    24/7 and wake some of them up.   No Russian invasion could hope to achieve this and in fact would achieve the opposite.

    4) All the talk of Russia doing nothing is BS.   Russia has enabled the Donbas rebels to survive and secure themselves.
    This is a major achievement.  The 10,000 volunteers, supply lines and big power political support (e.g. you don't see
    any NATO air campaign as you saw in Kosovo and Libya) is to be applauded.   Given the constraints on Russia it is an
    big achievement.   Russia can only help to the extent that it can and not to fantasy dreams of internet forum members.
    It has nothing to be ashamed of.

    Reading this, I have a question. I hope it makes sense. I agree, a frozen conflict is in Russia's favor. & if Ukraine, etc can not win militarily, at what point does the ATO (if it does) tip over the edge, and cost Kiev government more than it's "Partners" are willing to pay (in whatever terms)?? What would be the tipping point where they would be willing to cut Donbass area loose, and forget controlling their border with Russia? or will that never happen??

    I would not say a frozen conflict is in Russia's favour.  It's hands are tied and it can only hope that an economic collapse of
    Ukraine precipitates true regime change.   Ukraine's GDP has fallen by 17.6% officially for the 1st quarter of 2015.   In spite
    of all the hater trash talk from western Ukraine, the east was a major part of Ukraine's GDP.  Donetsk and Lugansk by themselves
    accounted for 25.6% of Ukraine's exports.  The Kiev regime cut off vital trade with Russia.   Russia needs to milk this action
    for all it is worth.   NATO is not going to fill the gap in the near or medium term.  

    Thank you for your reply.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 8:18 pm

    BKP wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:I think the annihilation of the Ukrainians near Illovaisk was the proper Russian response for that move.

    No it wasn't. Donbas resistance deserves more credit than they are given. Afterall, Ukraine inherited huge piles of Soviet arms, and so did Donbas. If Russian regular troops were involved, Kiev would have fallen, not just Illovaisk.

    Exactly. People here are clinging to hopes and possibilities. but are not seeing what is happening. Kiev still goes ahead and kills people, donbass in dire need of assistance in goods/equipment, and Kiev foaming at mouth anti Russian stance allows them to kill innocense around the country with impunity, and they get to survive longer to do that, by getting cheap gas from Russia, as well as Russia not demanding their money back. So effectively, Russia is aiding kiev in their murders like US is.

    Do you know how much Russia is presently charging Ukraine for gas, and what market value should be based on the price charged to other countries?

    $260 some odd for 1000 cubic meters of gas to Ukraine. I believe to other parts of Europe, it is in the $300 range.
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    Post  Nikander Sun May 17, 2015 8:28 pm

    The amount of garbage that's been written today by Flagship Victory and sepheronx in unbelievable. Putin not helping Donbass when all he's been doing is helping, Putin will send army to crush rebels, Putin weak, stupid, Medvedev is better! This is hilarious stuff Very Happy I'm pretty sure that Flagship guy is a paid troll. Think about it: he want's Putin overthrown, he's calling for protests in Russia, he's spreading lies and panic constantly about pretty much everything. Sadly sepheronx is playing this silly game, and my advice for you is to stop because you are saying some crazy shit.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 8:33 pm

    Nikander wrote:The amount of garbage that's been written today by Flagship Victory and sepheronx in unbelievable. Putin not helping Donbass when all he's been doing is helping, Putin will send army to crush rebels, Putin weak, stupid, Medvedev is better! This is hilarious stuff Very Happy I'm pretty sure that Flagship guy is a paid troll. Think about it: he want's Putin overthrown, he's calling for protests in Russia, he's spreading lies and panic constantly about pretty much everything. Sadly sepheronx is playing this silly game, and my advice for you is to stop because you are saying some crazy shit.

    OK, let us get some facts straight:
    - Putin agreed to give gas at $100 cubic meter discount.
    - Putin not officially helping Donbass
    - Most equipment has been handed via donations from oligarches and average people to buy gear.
    - War still ongoing
    - Signing Minsk agreements that are being violated by Kiev more than once, and it helps Kiev re arm.
    - Not demanding their investment money back (not calling in Kievs debt)
    - Handing over the head of Ghost over to Ukrainian authorities
    - Not acting when your own civillians got killed by Ukrainian military shells hit your territory.

    Should I go on? Calling other people silly when these facts are well known and documentes, vs speculations, gives the truth a whole new meaning.
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    Post  Neutrality Sun May 17, 2015 8:39 pm

    sepheronx wrote:

    OK, let us get some facts straight:
    - Putin agreed to give gas at $100 cubic meter discount.
    - Putin not officially helping Donbass
    - Most equipment has been handed via donations from oligarches and average people to buy gear.
    - War still ongoing
    - Signing Minsk agreements that are being violated by Kiev more than once, and it helps Kiev re arm.
    - Not demanding their investment money back (not calling in Kievs debt)
    - Handing over the head of Ghost over to Ukrainian authorities
    - Not acting when your own civillians got killed by Ukrainian military shells hit your territory.

    Should I go on? Calling other people silly when these facts are well known and documentes, vs speculations, gives the truth a whole new meaning.

    Half of what you summed up is subjective and highly suggestive. They are not calling in Kiev's debt because it's not time yet. About the gas price, it's better to ask for a lower price which is reasonable for both parties. Now they send in tranches of 20-40 million dollars nicely on time. Otherwise these idiots will shit a brick and don't pay at all. Money speaks loudest in this conflict and Moscow has Kiev ,financially wise, by the balls.


    Last edited by Neutrality on Sun May 17, 2015 8:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 8:42 pm

    No, when you cant pay your bills, you get cut off. So effectively, Ukraine should have been cut off, but instead, Russia allowed contract to be overwritten and they now sell it at a discount. That is keeping kiev alive. Debt was supposed to be dealt with last year, and this year, Ukraine went past debt agreement on how much debt they can collect from IMF, which of course kiev broke and Russia once again did not call in the debt.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun May 17, 2015 8:43 pm

    Ukraine may nor may not join NATO. That's not the point of the story. The US already has troops in Ukraine training Ukrainian troops. Even if Ukraine is not a NATO state, the US can nevertheless put lots of military bases in Ukraine and park Abrams tanks right on Russia's border. The point of the story is, who takes the initiative. And right now it's not Putin, who does not have Russian troops in Ukraine like the US has US troops in Ukraine.
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    Post  Neutrality Sun May 17, 2015 8:45 pm

    sepheronx wrote:No, when you cant pay your bills, you get cut off. So effectively, Ukraine should have been cut off, but instead, Russia allowed contract to be overwritten and they now sell it at a discount. That is keeping kiev alive. Debt was supposed to be dealt with last year, and this year, Ukraine went past debt agreement on how much debt they can collect from IMF, which of course kiev broke and Russia once again did not call in the debt.

    If they had cut off the gas completely, Kiev would simply steal gas that was meant for Europe (transit gas) and Moscow wouldn't be able to do anything at all. Let's hope Turkish Stream is on schedule and is finished on time so Moscow can get rid off this fucking headache for good.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 8:47 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:Ukraine may nor may not join NATO. That's not the point of the story. The US already has troops in Ukraine training Ukrainian troops. Even if Ukraine is not a NATO state, the US can nevertheless put lots of military bases in Ukraine and park Abrams tanks right on Russia's border. The point of the story is, who takes the initiative. And right now it's not Putin, who does not have Russian troops in Ukraine like the US has US troops in Ukraine.

    Which, goes COMPLETELY counter of what MINSK 2 agreements are - No foreign troops in Ukraine. But how come Russia has not DEMANDED for them to leave? UK, US and Canada broke the agreement, and not a peep. Ukraine attacks and provokes Donbass, not a peep. But if they start defending themselves, the international community blames Russia and Putin. So why in the flying F, is Putin being a worthless idiot, not demanding, internationally, for these troops to be gone? I would state "they leave or we assist Donbass". So that the ball is in US court.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 8:49 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:No, when you cant pay your bills, you get cut off. So effectively, Ukraine should have been cut off, but instead, Russia allowed contract to be overwritten and they now sell it at a discount. That is keeping kiev alive. Debt was supposed to be dealt with last year, and this year, Ukraine went past debt agreement on how much debt they can collect from IMF, which of course kiev broke and Russia once again did not call in the debt.

    If they had cut off the gas completely, Kiev would simply steal gas that was meant for Europe (transit gas) and Moscow wouldn't be able to do anything at all. Let's hope Turkish Stream is on schedule and is finished on time so Moscow can get rid off this fucking headache for good.

    Nope, they cut europe too. Europe created the mess in Ukraine. Russia cut them off before. Do it again. Europe will need it so they would turn their attention to Kiev. Or get it from Germany via Nord Stream.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun May 17, 2015 8:54 pm

    It is important to remember that the US orchestrated Maidan to kill 2 birds with 1 stone, namely Russia and the EU. The EU did not sanction Russia until after the MH17 incident. Care to guess who did that too? The US wants the EU and Russia to sanction each other to oblivion. The sanction won't stop until Putin gives back Crimea and detroys Novorossiya at which point Ukraine can join NATO. If Putin does not, then fine, sanction continues, and the US can still put military bases in Ukraine and park Abrams tanks right on Russia's border. It's called, damned if you do, damned if you don't. What a Face
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sun May 17, 2015 8:55 pm

    Nikander wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Nikander wrote:Ukraine and the West would gladly let Russia take Donbass. It's not their first choice but if that's what Russia wanted the deal would be quickly made. Most of Russian population would in that situation vanish from Ukraine, and it would be easy to make of the country the most fascist and russophobe place in the world. Putin knows this and that's why he will never recognize Donbass as independent or make it part of Russia. At least not in the present form. If one day Novorossiya becomes independent or joins Russia it will happen with much bigger territory under it's control, you can be sure about that. This game has just begun and nothing is lost. At present Russia loses if they let rebels be overrun or if current territory controlled by rebels becomes independent of Ukraine. On the other hand West and their puppets in Kiev lose if Donbass is part of Ukraine but has an autonomy, meaning if Minsk is implemented. They know that they will lose if it's implemented so it will not be implemented unless situation on the ground forces them to do it. So war will most likely continue sooner or later.

    About Nato bases in Ukraine, again it will never happen in Ukraine as we know it know. Maybe it happens in much smaller Ukraine,  that will have much smaller border with Russia but in Ukraine as it is it will never happen. If Russia senses that things are going in that way they will send the army to Kiev no matter the cost, I have no doubt about that. So this talk about bases and that East won't have any say is not really serious talk. If they won't have any say than what's stopping the West and Kiev from implementing the Minsk deal? Well, because they know that pro Russian Donbass with an autonomy would be like an antivenom spreading all over Ukraine and blocking their poison of hate to take root. Russia is playing the long game, trying to get what it wants without taking big risks or breaking with the West. For Russia and Russians everywhere the best solution would be for Donbass to have autonomy and be part of Ukraine. Ideally that can be achieved peacefully but most likely it will have to be achieved by force with victory in battles until something breaks in Ukrainian society, their ruling class and today's rulers will then be deposed. When hopefully that happens Russia will achieve a complete victory in Ukraine and it would have a much better situation than before all this happened. She would have gained Crimea, Donbass would have an autonomy, the rest of Ukraine would be sick of West and full of disappointment and they wouldn't be able to organize new Maidan  for decades
    because of it if ever.

    Donbas is not a small piece of land. About as big as each of the Baltic states. Ukraine would never give up territory. Even if Donbas is razed to the ground, Ukraine will never give up Donbas. Tom Cruise has a good line in the 1992 movie Far and Away when he said land is the most valuable thing in the world, no one will give you land. Indeed, humanity has fought over land over hundreds of thousands of years. You'd imagine Putin is foolish for not wanting Donbas when the people of Donbas wanted to join Russia in May 2014.

    There are already American troops in Ukraine. The US knows, with US troops in Ukraine, Russia won't dare to invade Ukraine because Russia won't fight a war with the US. Therefore, once the US starts putting military bases in Ukraine, then it's pretty much guaranteed Ukraine would join NATO.


    They would not gave it up formally just like they didn't with Crimea, but really they would because of the reasons I've mentioned before. It's not small piece of land but it's small piece of Ukraine, and they would sacrificed it for neo-Nazi russophobe Ukraine without Russians, with Nato bases. Putin is not foolish, he didn't want Donbass because in it's present form it doesn't do any good for Russia or for people of Donbass for the reasons I also mentioned. Whatever happens this Ukraine crisis will not end with present situation because it doesn't do any good for anybody.
    American troops were in Georgia in 2008. also, in fact they were dying there and Russia did invade there, so no US don't know what are you saying. With or without so called instructors there Russia will invade if will have to and US won't do shit because it's them that won't fight war with Russia. They will get their reward in complete enslavement of Europe but they will not fight Russia in her backyard. And bases are coming after joining Nato and not before. If they start putting them before then again Russian army will be in Kiev.

    I don't know how it will shake out, but I pretty much agree with what you've said.

    One other thing, imho, Donbass couldn't let Kiev government shell them forever, but when they "fought back", they gained more territory.& more equipment.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 8:59 pm

    Cowboy's daughter wrote:
    Nikander wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Nikander wrote:Ukraine and the West would gladly let Russia take Donbass. It's not their first choice but if that's what Russia wanted the deal would be quickly made. Most of Russian population would in that situation vanish from Ukraine, and it would be easy to make of the country the most fascist and russophobe place in the world. Putin knows this and that's why he will never recognize Donbass as independent or make it part of Russia. At least not in the present form. If one day Novorossiya becomes independent or joins Russia it will happen with much bigger territory under it's control, you can be sure about that. This game has just begun and nothing is lost. At present Russia loses if they let rebels be overrun or if current territory controlled by rebels becomes independent of Ukraine. On the other hand West and their puppets in Kiev lose if Donbass is part of Ukraine but has an autonomy, meaning if Minsk is implemented. They know that they will lose if it's implemented so it will not be implemented unless situation on the ground forces them to do it. So war will most likely continue sooner or later.

    About Nato bases in Ukraine, again it will never happen in Ukraine as we know it know. Maybe it happens in much smaller Ukraine,  that will have much smaller border with Russia but in Ukraine as it is it will never happen. If Russia senses that things are going in that way they will send the army to Kiev no matter the cost, I have no doubt about that. So this talk about bases and that East won't have any say is not really serious talk. If they won't have any say than what's stopping the West and Kiev from implementing the Minsk deal? Well, because they know that pro Russian Donbass with an autonomy would be like an antivenom spreading all over Ukraine and blocking their poison of hate to take root. Russia is playing the long game, trying to get what it wants without taking big risks or breaking with the West. For Russia and Russians everywhere the best solution would be for Donbass to have autonomy and be part of Ukraine. Ideally that can be achieved peacefully but most likely it will have to be achieved by force with victory in battles until something breaks in Ukrainian society, their ruling class and today's rulers will then be deposed. When hopefully that happens Russia will achieve a complete victory in Ukraine and it would have a much better situation than before all this happened. She would have gained Crimea, Donbass would have an autonomy, the rest of Ukraine would be sick of West and full of disappointment and they wouldn't be able to organize new Maidan  for decades
    because of it if ever.

    Donbas is not a small piece of land. About as big as each of the Baltic states. Ukraine would never give up territory. Even if Donbas is razed to the ground, Ukraine will never give up Donbas. Tom Cruise has a good line in the 1992 movie Far and Away when he said land is the most valuable thing in the world, no one will give you land. Indeed, humanity has fought over land over hundreds of thousands of years. You'd imagine Putin is foolish for not wanting Donbas when the people of Donbas wanted to join Russia in May 2014.

    There are already American troops in Ukraine. The US knows, with US troops in Ukraine, Russia won't dare to invade Ukraine because Russia won't fight a war with the US. Therefore, once the US starts putting military bases in Ukraine, then it's pretty much guaranteed Ukraine would join NATO.


    They would not gave it up formally just like they didn't with Crimea, but really they would because of the reasons I've mentioned before. It's not small piece of land but it's small piece of Ukraine, and they would sacrificed it for neo-Nazi russophobe Ukraine without Russians, with Nato bases. Putin is not foolish, he didn't want Donbass because in it's present form it doesn't do any good for Russia or for people of Donbass for the reasons I also mentioned. Whatever happens this Ukraine crisis will not end with present situation because it doesn't do any good for anybody.
    American troops were in Georgia in 2008. also, in fact they were dying there and Russia did invade there, so no US don't know what are you saying. With or without so called instructors there Russia will invade if will have to and US won't do shit because it's them that won't fight war with Russia. They will get their reward in complete enslavement of Europe but they will not fight Russia in her backyard. And bases are coming after joining Nato and not before. If they start putting them before then again Russian army will be in Kiev.

    I don't know how it will shake out, but I pretty much agree with what you've said.

    One other thing, imho, Donbass couldn't let Kiev government shell them forever, but when they "fought back", they gained more territory.& more equipment.

    Well, I can tell you there are already US, Canadian and UK troops in Ukraine and Russia didnt do squat as it is. My prediction is, Ukaine will end up with US bases and Russia will bitch and whine, wondering how did this happen, all the while Ukrainians will want more Russians dead.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun May 17, 2015 9:03 pm

    Cowboy's daughter wrote:One other thing, imho, Donbass couldn't let Kiev government shell them forever, but when they "fought back", they gained more territory.& more equipment.

    Putin should use Novorossiya as a tool to restore democracy in Ukraine rather than see Novorossiya as a liablility that is the cause of all these sanctions placed on Russia.

    At the end of the day, the key is taking the initiative. Strelkov took the initiative in Crimea, so today there are no US warships docked in Sevastopol. The US took the initiative placing US troops in Ukraine, so Ukraine is now a military base of the US. Even today, Strelkov is seen by the Kremlin as a vigilante who threatens Putin's power.

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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 9:15 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Cowboy's daughter wrote:One other thing, imho, Donbass couldn't let Kiev government shell them forever, but when they "fought back", they gained more territory.& more equipment.

    Putin should use Novorossiya as a tool to restore democracy in Ukraine rather than see Novorossiya as a liablility that is the cause of all these sanctions placed on Russia.

    At the end of the day, the key is taking the initiative. Strelkov took the initiative in Crimea, so today there are no US warships docked in Sevastopol. The US took the initiative placing US troops in Ukraine, so Ukraine is now a military base of the US. Even today, Strelkov is seen by the Kremlin as a vigilante who threatens Putin's power.


    And hopefully Strelkov has popular support, because Putin does and wont get trumped. Although, I heard Strelkov was gonna run as an opposition, is this true?

    Anyway, what is done is done. Russia screwed up. Now they got a massive enemy at their border that will eventually host US ABM shield, thousands of troops, Ships in Odessa and tanks in Lviv.
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    Post  Nikander Sun May 17, 2015 9:16 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Nikander wrote:The amount of garbage that's been written today by Flagship Victory and sepheronx in unbelievable. Putin not helping Donbass when all he's been doing is helping, Putin will send army to crush rebels, Putin weak, stupid, Medvedev is better! This is hilarious stuff Very Happy I'm pretty sure that Flagship guy is a paid troll. Think about it: he want's Putin overthrown, he's calling for protests in Russia, he's spreading lies and panic constantly about pretty much everything. Sadly sepheronx is playing this silly game, and my advice for you is to stop because you are saying some crazy shit.

    OK, let us get some facts straight:
    - Putin agreed to give gas at $100 cubic meter discount.
    - Putin not officially helping Donbass
    - Most equipment has been handed via donations from oligarches and average people to buy gear.
    - War still ongoing
    - Signing Minsk agreements that are being violated by Kiev more than once, and it helps Kiev re arm.
    - Not demanding their investment money back (not calling in Kievs debt)
    - Handing over the head of Ghost over to Ukrainian authorities
    - Not acting when your own civillians got killed by Ukrainian military shells hit your territory.

    Should I go on? Calling other people silly when these facts are well known and documentes, vs speculations, gives the truth a whole new meaning.

    - Do you remember that Crimea depends for water and electricity on Ukraine still, so don't you think that discount has something to do with that?
    - But he is helping, why should he help officially for you to be happy? The important thing is to help and he is helping. Without Russia Donbass would fall apart in a matter of days, days believe me. Srpska krajina existed for 4 years, when Serbia backed off and stopped helping it was overrun in days and 300000 people ran from their homes. That future awaits Donbass people if Russia stops helping. But it's not gonna happen because Russia is helping and it will continue to do so.
    - That's what you say, do you have some proof for that? From wherever the equipment is coming Putin must give his blessing, and believe me from the videos that I have seen the state has benn helping big time.
    - Minsk agreements helps Donbass to re arm also, to heal, to get their things in order, to strengthen their institutions. They also show to the world that it's Ukraine that don't want peace so if war again starts Russia will act differently knowing that they've given every chance to Ukraine and West to end this peacefully.
    - They are demanding their investment money back and are saying constantly that they will not take part in restructuring of Kiev dept
    - What happened with that guy from Ghost we don't know for sure so I woudn't make definitive conclusions
    - They didn't act because the point of those provocations was for Russia to invade. And guess what, when they understood that Russia won't bite they stopped with the shelling.

    You need to understand that Russia can't play the game that West plays because they hold more power currently. That means that their game is much more complicated, longer and that sometimes some humiliations may come along the way. In that moment you can't react emotionally but bite your tongue and countinue playing your game. That's exactly what's Putin been doing. You on the other hand have been reacting to emotionally just like Strelkov has, so both of you guys would be terrible leaders of state but maybe great soldiers Wink
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    Post  Khepesh Sun May 17, 2015 9:18 pm

    We can, and do, hypothesize endlessly, but I think often forget or even ignore what the players say. Zakharchenko says something and is ignored as either a "Putin puppet" or a "lightweight" out of his depth. What he says outweighs anything any of us say on these forums. He has stated several times that he will liberate all of DNR, and when he says this we should understand that LNR is also meant. This is not bravado or "running off at mouth", it is a serious message. Poroshenko understands this and it is why soon he will roll the dice one more time to try and achieve victory. He will fail and I think he knows he will fail. There was back in middle ages the practice of showing enemies of the state/church the "instruments of torture" in order to terrify them so much that they confess. Even cursory attention to some bloggers who are in Donbass and it is clear these "instruments of torture" have been shown, and more than once, to Kiev. Yes, this is an admission of, stuff, meh, it is clear to anybody. But it clearly shows that Novorossiya is not going to be merged. That this subject causes at times rancorous debate even among supporters of Novorossiya is, in a way good, for it means it will certainly be causing anguish and turmoil in Kiev, no matter what face they present. For us it is a matter of presenting a stone face and a stone wall to enemies, it is a matter of holding nerve. I'll remind again of what yurasumy has written, that it is not perhaps a matter of there being a big Novorossiya, but of there being a Novoukraine when the crooks and banderas are driven from Kiev. Donbass is not "seperatist", it is Kiev, captured by enemies, that has seperated itself from the people. Polemic over Smile
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun May 17, 2015 9:21 pm

    Nikander wrote:- Do you remember that Crimea depends for water and electricity on Ukraine still, so don't you think that discount has something to do with that?
    - But he is helping, why should he help officially for you to be happy? The important thing is to help and he is helping. Without Russia Donbass would fall apart in a matter of days, days believe me. Srpska krajina existed for 4 years, when Serbia backed off and stopped helping it was overrun in days and 300000 people ran from their homes. That future awaits Donbass people if Russia stops helping. But it's not gonna happen because Russia is helping and it will continue to do so.
    - That's what you say, do you have some proof for that? From wherever the equipment is coming Putin must give his blessing, and believe me from the videos that I have seen the state has benn helping big time.
    - Minsk agreements helps Donbass to re arm also, to heal, to get their things in order, to strengthen their institutions. They also show to the world that it's Ukraine that don't want peace so if war again starts Russia will act differently knowing that they've given every chance to Ukraine and West to end this peacefully.
    - They are demanding their investment money back and are saying constantly that they will not take part in restructuring of Kiev dept
    - What happened with that guy from Ghost we don't know for sure so I woudn't make definitive conclusions
    - They didn't act because the point of those provocations was for Russia to invade. And guess what, when they understood that Russia won't bite they stopped with the shelling.

    You need to understand that Russia can't play the game that West plays because they hold more power currently. That means that their game is much more complicated, longer and that sometimes some humiliations may come along the way. In that moment you can't react emotionally but bite your tongue and countinue playing your game. That's exactly what's Putin been doing. You on the other hand have been reacting to emotionally just like Strelkov has, so both of you guys would be terrible leaders of state but maybe great soldiers Wink

    Ukraine is way bigger than Novorossiya. Minsk 2 works in Ukraine's favor. For every man NAF gains, UAF gains 10, plus UAF gets military aid from the US, e.g. Barrett rifles, Humvees and soon TOWs. I suspect the US will train a massive Ukrianian force and destroy Novorossiya like how the US trained and armed FSA which is on the verge of destroying Syria. If Putin continues to refuse to help Novorossiya like he refused to help Syria, then both Syria and Novorossiya would be destroyed by US trained and armed forces.


    Last edited by Flagship Victory on Sun May 17, 2015 9:25 pm; edited 2 times in total
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    Post  Guest Sun May 17, 2015 9:22 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:I'm sure military intelligence is being exchanged as well.

    In the west where I live, no proof means nada. You can guess speculate all you want, but it means nada. As far as evidence all, Putin has not aided NAF in any way.

    It's top secret for a reason, if you and I saw something official about its existance then the GRU wouldn't be doing its job very well.

    I can only hope that is true, that they are assisting novorussia. But with helping Kiev survive so they can keep up the attacks and killing people, gives me the indication that is false and that Novorussia is on their own while Putin assists Kiev. If they really did care, they would have told kiev to pay normal market price or go find it elsewhere and not try to help kiev stay afloat.
    Russia has been supporting Novorossiya almost going back to the fall of Slavyansk now. I'm not sure why some of you bother denying it or refuse to believe it. It is the politicians' job to deny it not y'alls.

    Remember back when Slavyansk fell and both the DNR and the LNR were on the verge to of being surrounded? Apart from Strelkov, all the other commanders of the NAF seemed very incompetent as they were losing almost every fight to the Kiev Regime. Seemingly out of nowhere, the rebels rallied and were able to pin the UAF in a cauldron against the Russian border.

    Or think back to the famed "Northern Wind" campaign involved the "NAF" pushing down from their front all the way down to the Azov Sea and the UAF being routed and nearly destroyed at Iloviask all in basically a weeks time. There have been very little times in history were an outgunned and an outnumbered rebel force have been able to make gains like that. Not to mention that T-72 were confirmed to be a T-72B3 in Iloviask, but losing one tank when inflicting thousands of loses on the Hohols without air or artillery support is very impressive and it speaks to the the combat prowess of the Russian army. Ever since then, the NAF has never been able to make gains as large. With that intensity, the NAF could reach Kharkov within a week as well.

    Going off from direct help from thr Russian Forces, there have been videos of Russian equipment in the country of Novorossiya. A notable example recently has been the Pantsir S-1s, shortly after the Pantsirs showed up we stopped hearing about Tochka strikes from the Ukraines. The NAF has also acquired Russian counter-artillery radars which they let the OSCE monitors look at during the final stages of the battle for Dontesk Airport. Considering the wide range of backgrounds of the rebel fighters, they need some kind of training ranging from relatively simple infantry tactics to tank and special operations training, I am willing to bet that there are Spetsnaz officers and other specialists serving as advisors.
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    Post  BKP Sun May 17, 2015 9:23 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    BKP wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:I think the annihilation of the Ukrainians near Illovaisk was the proper Russian response for that move.

    No it wasn't. Donbas resistance deserves more credit than they are given. Afterall, Ukraine inherited huge piles of Soviet arms, and so did Donbas. If Russian regular troops were involved, Kiev would have fallen, not just Illovaisk.

    Exactly. People here are clinging to hopes and possibilities. but are not seeing what is happening. Kiev still goes ahead and kills people, donbass in dire need of assistance in goods/equipment, and Kiev foaming at mouth anti Russian stance allows them to kill innocense around the country with impunity, and they get to survive longer to do that, by getting cheap gas from Russia, as well as Russia not demanding their money back. So effectively, Russia is aiding kiev in their murders like US is.

    Do you know how much Russia is presently charging Ukraine for gas, and what market value should be based on the price charged to other countries?

    $260 some odd for 1000 cubic meters of gas to Ukraine. I believe to other parts of Europe, it is in the $300 range.

    Yeah, a bit of a discount, perhaps. I admit I don't understand it. There must be a strategy behind it, but I don't know what it is. I personally have thought that Russia should insist on full-market price.

    But, in general, I feel Russia's approach in regard to Ukraine has been good. I do not think Russia should go in, guns blazing. That would be needlessly expensive in every regard, especially in terms of bad publicity.

    Putin is giving the Kiev crazies all the rope they need to hang themselves, and they're surely doing it. Ukrainian living standards are declining rapidly. BS and propaganda can't paper over that bleak reality forever. As the failed recruitment drives have shown, much of the population is already disengaged from Kiev.

    Crimea was a good move; It saved Russia's warm water port and BSF. Russia should now intensively develop that area so it can serve as a direct, positive example of what it means to be with Russia. It can be a stark, edifying contrast with life lived in US corporate and Banderist serfdom. Kiev and Washington are wary of this possibility.

    I also agree that it's best for DPR, LPR and any other oblast to demonstrate to the world its own desire for independence from what Kiev currently represents. If Russia does it for them, it can be too easily spun as coercion and occupation. Recall that the West attempted this same spin in regard to Crimea in the beginning, even though the assertion was preposterous on its face. Russia is providing both military and non-military material aid, as well as political support. This should be sufficient, and so far it has been. Morale in the Donbass is good, far better than in Ukraine. Let the example that sets do its work.  

    I think Putin is playing the game well so far. Russia is itself still recovering and trying to maintain its momentum. The cost of direct involvement in a major conflict is not in its interest. It needs to play it smart, not impulsively.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun May 17, 2015 9:26 pm

    Ukraine says captured 2 Russian officers. Another propaganda IMO.

    http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-two-russian-soldiers-captured-east-174358341.html

    BKP wrote:I think Putin is playing the game well so far. Russia is itself still recovering and trying to maintain its momentum. The cost of direct involvement in a major conflict is not in its interest. It needs to play it smart, not impulsively.

    I beg to differ. Russia is facing the biggest crisis. One has to be decisive, act fast. Once the US starts building military bases in Ukraine, then it's all over. A major Ukrainian offensive against Novorossiya is coming very soon. The US is training and arming a huge Ukrainian force. And it's all overt, not covert. If Putin does not act, then what happened to Syria losing Idlib will be what happens to Novorossiya.


    Last edited by Flagship Victory on Sun May 17, 2015 9:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 17, 2015 9:32 pm

    I hope you guys are right. I also hope Novorussian forces have recieved newer equipment as well as economic assistance. Crimea is moving along well, with new water pipes in the area carrying water from Russia (now they need to build a desalination plant if they want more fresh water) and hopefully soon solve the electricity issue. But ultimately, Putin could be providing more help. There was a story not long ago on Saker about aid shipments have dwindled and the aid didnt go where they were supposed to, so hopefully it were just some bad cases and not all like this.
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    Post  whir Sun May 17, 2015 9:36 pm

    TASS wrote:Nuland to discuss implementation of Minsk accords in Moscow
    World May 17, 2:48 updated at: May 17, 3:33 UTC+3
    She will also discuss bilateral issues with Russian officials and meet with civil society representatives

    WASHINGTON, May 17. /TASS/. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland will visit Moscow on May 17-18 to discuss with Russia’s representatives the implementation of the Minsk agreements, says a statement released by the U.S. Department of State on Saturday.
    Nuland is expected to meet with senior Russian government officials to discuss the next steps aimed at implementing the Minsk agreements following her visit to Kiev on May 14-16 and also the meetings held by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in Sochi.
    She will also discuss bilateral issues with Russian officials and meet with civil society representatives, the U.S. Department of State says. Continue reading.

    TASS wrote:Ukraine’s Poroshenko says important to regain control over border with Russia
    World May 17, 1:10 UTC+3

    KIEV, May 16. /TASS/. Ukraine’s President Pyotr Poroshenko has underscored at a meeting with the country’s representatives at the subgroups of the Contact Group on resolving the Ukraine conflict that to regain control along the whole border with Russia is of crucial importance, the presidential press service said on Saturday.
    "Addressing Ukraine’s representative at the security subgroup, Yevgeny Marchuk, Pyotr Poroshenko underlined the importance of regaining control over uncontrolled sections on the Ukrainian-Russian border," the statement said.
    At the same time, the meeting attended also by Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk and Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Alexander Turchinov confirmed adherence to implementation of the Minsk agreements.
    Besides, the meeting focused on efforts coordinated with international organisations and aimed at easing supplies of humanitarian aid to Donbass in compliance with all international procedures. Continue reading.

    TASS wrote:Vandals smash Zhukov memorial plaque in Kiev
    World May 17, 2:53 UTC+3
    All participants in the incident were taken to the district police department

    MOSCOW, May 17. /TASS/. A memorial plaque installed in the Ukrainian capital Kiev in honor of legendary Soviet military commander Marshal Georgy Zhukov has been broken by a group of vandals, the press service of the Kiev Interior Ministry Department said.
    "On Saturday, young people wearing masks smashed a memorial plaque in honor of Marshal Georgy Zhukov. All participants in the incident were taken to the district police department," the press service report says. "The group comprises residents of Kiev and the Kiev region. They are students aged between 14 and 18." In all, 14 people were detained, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said.
    Meanwhile, Verkhovna Rada’s deputy from the Ukraine’s Radical Party Igor Moseychuk famous for his involvement in several scandals interfered with the work of the law enforcers. The lawmaker wrote about this on the Facebook page. "Police detained activists. I had to lecture the cops on de-communization," he wrote, calling Zhukov a "Ukrainophobe". Continue reading.

    TASS via Google Translate wrote:Киевские силовики взяли в плен на территории ЛНР двух сотрудников народной милиции
    Kiev security forces captured in the territory of the LC two employees of the militia
    International Panorama May 17, 20:07 UTC + 3

    Currently, the fate of the prisoners is unknown

    MOSCOW, May 17. / TASS /. Kiev security forces captured in the territory of the People's Republic proclaimed Lugansk (LC) two members of the militia. This May 17 first deputy commander of the police LC Sergei Kozlov.

    "Yesterday (May 16) at about 13:00, going line of demarcation, the Seversky Donets River, in the area east of the village Happiness sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the enemy attacked the observation post separate reconnaissance battalion of the People's Militia" - quoted him as saying LuganskInformTsentr.

    According to him, during the ensuing fight, "two soldiers - Yerofeyev Evgeny and Alexander A. Alexandrov - were injured and taken prisoner Ukrainian saboteurs."

    Currently, the fate of the prisoners is unknown. For their release, together with the leadership of the LC command of the militia "decided to create a group to negotiate the exchange of military data."

    Kozlov also called for representatives of the OSCE monitoring mission to pay attention to this incident and recalled the need to respect the agreements Minsk. "We call on the Ukrainian side to give up provocations and to adhere strictly to the agreements Minsk", - summed up the deputy commander of the people's militia. Continue reading.

    Леонид Маслов wrote:A lost soul from GRU

    @EgoRZemtsoV via Google Translate wrote:Through the city of Mariupol Melitopol towards drove colon MLRS "Hurricane" 5 pieces and it should have 4 like these Zielke:
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #13 - Page 31 J5uurb

    Veterans Today wrote:NEO – Nazi Kamikazes Trained by NATO in Ukraine
    Posted by Jim W. Dean, Managing Editor on May 14, 2015

    National Socialists consider pacifism a disease of the spirit -- part of a dying people & cowardly individuals


    … by Konrad Stachnio, … with New Eastern Outlook, Moscow

    [ Editor’s note: America is moving on from the CIA and Gulf State proxies training terrorists to deployment in full military structure units. Stage two of this is being rolled out, where our troops are being ordered to train terrorist units that have been brought under the immunity of Kiev’s government and military command, and yet are able to “freelance” when they choose. Konrad Stachnio has it laid out below.

    If we had a union for servicemen and women, they could have taken the US command to court; but alas, the concept of unions for military people to protect them from being exploited and abused is something whose time has come. Laugh all you want. I am dead serious.

    That we are firmly in the state-sponsored terror business is an open secret for anyone who wants to know. All of our civil and military structures have failed to challenge having our American ideals stained this way. The Donbass people have stained their land with the blood of their victims killed by these Ukrainian Nationalist vipers, who routinely violate the Minsk ceasefire with apparent immunity.

    Americans have a long history of getting snookered on these distant military-adventure scams, where no one takes responsibility for the disasters created. The Vietnam war protests and the takedown of the Lyndon Johnson juggernaut were the highpoint of that era, and were led by the Vietnam Vets who survived being sacrificed on the Cold War altar. Continue reading.

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