The Situation in the Ukraine. #14

Khepesh wrote:A move against, not necessarily an invasion. As Transnistria is seen as simply a Russian enclave there would not be any serious noises from the west. I'm aware of the complications, but these situations will not remain in stasis forever and I think in the current political climate people will see opportunities.

Chisinau is in a very difficult position right now to take the bait.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:.......................................
Anyhow, openly downing a Russian military aircraft is one of the best ways to give Russia a reason to attack. I am doubtful Ukraine would follow through with this idea seeing that Poroshenko's superiors in the West want to give Russia a very good reason to flatten Ukraine seeing as Ukraine has always backtracked when it openly provoked Russia (see all the border incidents from the BMP to all the artillery strikes last summer). Not to mention it is an incredibly risky move, the Hohols are counting on Russia not engaging them, but if Russia returns fire (in a case like this I am almost confident they will) the Ukrainian army would not last a week.

This reminds me of one day early last summer. About 9am (my local time) Porky showed up on news and started ranting about "Russian army invading OMG!!!" and how "Ukrainians must defend homeland".

Couple of hours later main news was that UKR soldiers were deserting their posts en masse and running away.

About 4pm Porky was on the news again saying that Russia is not really invading and urged discipline.

In the evening he was on again reporting how "situation on the front has stabilized".

Everyone here had a good laugh that day.    


So yeah, you are right, UAF would have about a week in "vs Russia" scenario before they have no more soldiers left alive. And this would all be done long before most Russian grunts would even cross the border.

Funny how everyone thinks that RU army would fight with tanks and infantry when they have entire air-force, navy and unholy amount of cruise missiles on speed-dial.  

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Posting in this thread as well as it covers both Novorossiya and Transnistria.

Possibility that a move may be made on Transnistria to see what reaction from Russia, and if weak, then the operation against Novorossiya will be launched. The S-300 battery seen in the recent video had been moved a little along the coast east of Odessa, possibly to give an earlier shoot down ability on any Russian air assistance from Sevastopol. Reports from Odessa locals in the last 30 minutes of ukrops helicopter movements.

Is this an independent assessment or did this come from a source? That is quite an interesting theory on the major military presence in Odessa, much better than the "preparing for a Russian invasion from Krim or Transnistria" excuse that was implied by Ukrop propaganda multiple times before.

Anyhow, openly downing a Russian military aircraft is one of the best ways to give Russia a reason to attack. I am doubtful Ukraine would follow through with this idea seeing that Poroshenko's superiors in the West want to give Russia a very good reason to flatten Ukraine seeing as Ukraine has always backtracked when it openly provoked Russia (see all the border incidents from the BMP to all the artillery strikes last summer). Not to mention it is an incredibly risky move, the Hohols are counting on Russia not engaging them, but if Russia returns fire (in a case like this I am almost confident they will) the Ukrainian army would not last a week.

I added information from three sources, one was Dmitry Steshin, which promted me to make the post, and from two sources in Odessa, one posted openly, the other not. Likely it is all just smoke amd mirrors as usual, but it does no harm to keep track of these things as sometimes they become the reality. Remember last August that people laughed when I posted about Novoazovsk and said it was impossible.... But no, I don't think there will be an invasion of Transnistria, yet.

Edit: I noticed that da dzi is also writing about Transnistria. He says that simply the blockade is a "Rubicon" and that we must respond here and now and that the response should be a surprise to the western "partners".

whir wrote:

Khepesh wrote:A move against, not necessarily an invasion. As Transnistria is seen as simply a Russian enclave there would not be any serious noises from the west. I'm aware of the complications, but these situations will not remain in stasis forever and I think in the current political climate people will see opportunities.

Chisinau is in a very difficult position right now to take the bait.

Transdnistria is a colossal booby trap that only Kiev is dumb enough to tamper with, but I don't think that they will actually be allowed (by anyone) to do anything other than to make some media noise.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:THE OLIGARCHIC DEMOCRACY
THE INFLUENCE OF BUSINESS GROUPS
ON UKRAINIAN POLITICS


http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_42_en.pdf

I haven't read all this, but my goodness, just starting out reading it, it seems "maidan" , the coup, was just Oligarchs versus Oligarchs. Certain oligarchs taking power away from Yanukovych, with help from the EU and the USA.
If that's true, then that explains things to me...

Channeling regime change through people like oligarchs is a standard US method of covert operation. It works well, all oligarchs care about is money, and the US can print as much as they need to get the regime change done.

Karl Haushofer wrote:So the DNR is being shelled in Shirokino (with large losses) and they are not allowed to shoot back? Why? Let me guess: Moscow wants the DNR to respect the Minsk agreement and not upset it's western partners?

I have already spent too much time to follow this war rooting for Novorossiya. If they don't want to fight they deserve to be defeated. The ukrops are more deserving winners since they actually want to defeat the enemy.

I understand the frustration of people like Monarchist who have followed the war a lot more emotionally than I have.

Simply put, appeasement. The west demands Novorossiya falls before sanctions lifted. When that happens, the west will demand Crimea be returned to Ukraine before sanctions lifted. When that happens, the West will demand Russia compensate Ukraine 500 trillion US dollars before sanctions lifted. When that happens, the west will demand Russia be split up into pieces like what happened to Yugoslavia before sanctions lifted. When that happens, sanctions will still be there. Appeasement won't work. Given them an inch, and they'll take a mile. Russia should have learned by now. The west cannot be trusted. Expanding NATO to Russia's border after promising not to do so if the USSR split up.

Twitters are abuzz with Donetsk being heavily shelled right now. Something big is definitely happening.

Maidan seeks election to UN security council in a few months.

http://uatoday.tv/news/ukraine-to-seek-election-to-un-security-council-in-autumn-429368.html

Maidan received 4 billion USD from its funders. 2.5 billion from IMF and 1.5 billion from the EU. This is enough to pay the 3 billion USD owed to Russia.

http://english.pravda.ru/news/business/25-05-2015/130709-ukraine-0/

You know, IMF is the authority. If IMF really cares about Maidan, IMF would have sent 500 trillion USD to Maidan by computer and that would be enough to pay off all of Maidan's debt.

sepheronx wrote:People of Transnistria to Ask Putin for Protection From External Threat

On what Khepesh was saying.

The Transnistria thing is going to get ugly if a war start there.. Russia will have no way to help them.. no way.. because is a land locked territory.. they are just 150,000 people. And is plain stupid Russia did not fixed that problem already.. And because Moldova is not ruled by Nazis.
and ethnic russians not threatened there their lives.. as is the case in Ukraine..then is not worth of sending an army.. The best Russia can do is make it costly to Moldova if they start a war..
Cancel any trade with them ,and send back to moldova the 500,000 moldovan citizens working in Russia. But starting a war for Transnistria is not worth of it.. Too few people ,and their lives are not at risk as the case of Donetsk and Lugansk.. Russia image as reliable partner however will be destroyed because will not be helping them.. In short you never go to a war ,you don't have an exit strategy.. or that the possibility of making things worse are real.

Russia instead should offer all people in transnistria to live in Russia..

When it comes to Ukraine.. their goal is to provoke Russia into a war.. is all they want..
The sanctions on Russia will have to be lifted in Summer or extended and this is why they need a war. Also kiev needs a war with Russia ,and later claim Russia started it... in order to get unity
in the nation.. and end the unrest.

kvs wrote:Russia should call an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and demand a stop.   NATO won't be
able to use the excuse that Russia instigated "the violence" (a favourite western MSM Pavlovian phrase).
Churkin should make clear that Russia will deploy missile and air force assets to stop the assault.    Let's
see the NATO UN ambassadors squirm and try to paint it as Russian aggression.   Transnistria has been
quite for far too long to invoke some fable about "policing operations against Russian terrorists".   It will
be clear to the world that there is naked aggression involved.   Only Moldova could in principle stage an
assault to "restore its territorial integrity" (even though after the ICJ ruling on Kosovo this is no longer a
legal excuse).   Ukraine has no justification for any attack on Transnistria.  

Transnistria is not part of the Russian Federation, it doesn't even have a Russian majority. How could Putin justify intervention?

For me is quite possible (but not 100% sure) that Kerry visit to Russia was a diversion..
to sign a symbolic peace.. and distance from the war ,that kiev was given the green light
to start.

Before Lybia was bombed by NATO, there was a honeymoon between Obama ,clinton with Gadaffi.. for about 6 months.. with visits to their country and "REset" button relations..
the same they did in Syria.. Kerry visit Syria ,and MANY US congress legislators too..and finally Hillary clinton.. before the protest started. to try to convince Assad to break relations with Russia and IRAN and make peace with israel ,and become a puppet state in change of protection.
he said he cannot be friend of Israel for its criminal war against palestinians.. that it goes against
its principles. The next day the protest in all Syria began.. in 2011.

Whatever it is.. im sure.. that before any major world war start against Russia.. the Americans will not be anywhere close the front line.. and will distance from the conflict ,that they created. they will try do distance from the conflict and order its allies to do the dirty job of fueling the violence against Russia.

This is done to avoid being retaliated by Russia ,and force them to be in the front line and not allow them to get away.

Moscow is preparing for active defense in Transnistria

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/05/russian-defense-source-us-intelligence.html


It seems that US and kiev will be forcing Russia to invade Ukraine airspace and shut down the S-300s to provide support for Tansnistria.. If a major attack against Russians happens in transnistria , and Europe does nothing ,Russia should give the green light to Donetsk and Lugansk to start the offensive and capture all the regions from Donetsk and Lugansk..
in this case Russia airforce could provide support from the air to them.. Something tells me
Ukraine will end wiped really bad.. if Poroshenko lose more territory to the separatist.. and
rout ukraine army.. his future is sealed.. he will not survive in control of kiev..

So Russia should not declare war against Ukraine.. simply can defend its positions saying they
were forced to use precision strikes against the artillery that was illegally bombing civilians in Donetsk and lugansk..that their goal is only to stop kiev attacks on Lugansk and Donetsk.. and that they still will backup MINSK-2 agreement .

For Russia it will be important to be seen as only defending civilians and not interested
in changing any borders or territory . Because western media will be claiming Russia agression and invasion. Public Opinion is really important ..because its what will make the difference between a major war to start or not..

Just watched a domentary on the Great Patriotic War. I think, the current generation, do not realize how much their grandparents generation sacrificed for the strong Russia they inherit today. I think, today's Russian people should not be afraid of war, conflict, they should embrace it. Only through war and conflict can a nation become strong. If Ukraine wants a war, then let Ukraine have it. If the US want a war, then let the US have it. The Russian people can demonstrate to the whole world, that bullying of the Russian nation has no chance of success at Russia's own backyard.

kvs wrote:Russia should call an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and demand a stop. NATO won't be
able to use the excuse that Russia instigated "the violence" (a favourite western MSM Pavlovian phrase).
Churkin should make clear that Russia will deploy missile and air force assets to stop the assault. Let's
see the NATO UN ambassadors squirm and try to paint it as Russian aggression. Transnistria has been
quite for far too long to invoke some fable about "policing operations against Russian terrorists". It will
be clear to the world that there is naked aggression involved. Only Moldova could in principle stage an
assault to "restore its territorial integrity" (even though after the ICJ ruling on Kosovo this is no longer a
legal excuse). Ukraine has no justification for any attack on Transnistria.

What assault? Is there an assault on Donetsk?

Flagship Victory wrote:Just watched a domentary on the Great Patriotic War. I think, the current generation, do not realize how much their grandparents generation sacrificed for the strong Russia they inherit today. I think, today's Russian people should not be afraid of war, conflict, they should embrace it. Only through war and conflict can a nation become strong. If Ukraine wants a war, then let Ukraine have it. If the US want a war, then let the US have it. The Russian people can demonstrate to the whole world, that bullying of the Russian nation has no chance of success at Russia's own backyard.

maybe you should also watch a documentary about WW1 and learn about how things go horribly wrong when you get into a war you're not ready for.

HeNeArKrXeRn_ wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Just watched a domentary on the Great Patriotic War. I think, the current generation, do not realize how much their grandparents generation sacrificed for the strong Russia they inherit today. I think, today's Russian people should not be afraid of war, conflict, they should embrace it. Only through war and conflict can a nation become strong. If Ukraine wants a war, then let Ukraine have it. If the US want a war, then let the US have it. The Russian people can demonstrate to the whole world, that bullying of the Russian nation has no chance of success at Russia's own backyard.

maybe you should also watch a documentary about WW1 and learn about how things go horribly wrong when you get into a war you're not ready for.

WW1 was a battle between royal families, heck, between cousins. The British king and the German emperor were first cousins. WW2 was a battle between nations, a whole different ball game from WW1. If Ukrainians think they can bully ethnic Russians on Russia's border, then they got another thing coming.

Russia lost WW1 and won WW2, even though Russia sacrificed far more in WW2 compared to in WW1, because Russia did not fight a just war in WW1 and fought a just war in WW2. Defending ethnic Russians on Russia's border, in my books that would be fighting a just war that Russia would not lose.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:THE OLIGARCHIC DEMOCRACY
THE INFLUENCE OF BUSINESS GROUPS
ON UKRAINIAN POLITICS


http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_42_en.pdf

I haven't read all this, but my goodness, just starting out reading it, it seems "maidan" , the coup, was just Oligarchs versus Oligarchs. Certain oligarchs taking power away from Yanukovych, with help from the EU and the USA.
If that's true, then that explains things to me...

There quite some peepz on MP.net that were banned for that one. That means they spoke the truth.

Wow.

Ukraine Makes Amnesia the Law of the Land Poroshenko wants his nation to forget its role in Nazi atrocities


http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121880/new-laws-ukraine-make-it-illegal-bring-its-ugly-past?utm_content=buffer53e5f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Ukrainian servicemen may desert army positions - Ukrainian army report says

http://tass.ru/en/world/796684

MOSCOW, May 25 /TASS/. Military and psychological readiness of the Ukrainian army group in Donbas is low; the local population’s discontent is growing and the army command fears that soldiers will desert their positions in case military hostilities restart. These facts were revealed by an inspection commission of the Ukrainian army in a report which the reconnaissance of the Donetsk People’s Republic intercepted on Monday. "Seventy percent of Ukrainian servicemen do not have the outfit necessary for waging military hostilities. Most of them are absolutely unprepared for fulfilling the assigned military tasks in defensive or offensive operations as well as for fighting in populated localities. Commanders are incompetent in fulfilling their line of duty," the Donetsk news agency quoted the report as saying. "Low morale and the poor psychological state of Ukrainian servicemen lead to growing alcohol consumption and violation of military discipline. It is confirmed by the Ukraine Interior Ministry’s statistics and an increasing number of crimes against civilians committed by servicemen," the Ukrainian army inspection group said in conclusion. At the same time, the population of the Kiev government-controlled part of Donbas is getting growingly discontented with the presence of Ukrainian army units. "Troopers in separate army units will not fulfill the assigned tasks if no additional coercive measures are used. There is a threat that entire units may desert their positions," the report said. The reconnaissance of the Donetsk People’s Republic reported huge concentrated of Ukrainian troops in Donbas. The Ukrainian army has up to 45,000 troopers, up to 380 tanks and about 3,500 various weapons in the demilitarized zone, including about a thousand artillery guns and multiple rocket launcher systems, Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the Defense Ministry of the Donetsk People’s Republic, said. wrote:

Pushilin: DPR hopes for meaningful talks with Kiev government representatives on June 2

http://tass.ru/en/world/796663



entire article at link

Donetsk’s suburb comes under mortar fire

http://tass.ru/en/world/796657

MOSCOW, May 25. /TASS/. A Donetsk suburb came under mortar fire on Monday evening. One shell exploded near a children’s playing ground, the Donetsk News Agency said. "Donetsk’s Kievsky district was shelled from mortars at about 18:00 local time. Luckily, there was no serious damage," the news agency quoted the district’s head Valentin Levchenko as saying. He said three shells had hit the area with one exploding a couple of metres off a playing ground. Local residents said children had managed to hide in a shelter.
The Minsk accords were signed on February 12, 2015 after 14-hour negotiations between the leaders of Normandy Four (Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko) in the Belarusian capital city of Minsk. Concurrently, Minsk hosted a meeting of the Contact Group on Ukrainian settlement. A 13-point Package of Measures on implementation of the September 2014 Minsk agreements in particular included an agreement on cessation of fire from February 15, withdrawal of heavy armaments, as well as measures on long-term political settlement of the situation in Ukraine, including establishment of working subgroups as priority tasks. wrote:

LATEST COMBAT REPORTS FROM DONBASS – 24 MAY 2015
May 25, 2015

https://ukdissident.wordpress.com/2015/05/25/latest-combat-reports-from-donbass-24-may-2015/

UPDATE 19:00 Local Time: Heavy fighting reported at Avdiivka, Mariupol, Shyrokyne, Konstantinovka and Chermalyk. Ukrainian Army using heavy artillery, mortars and Armoured Personnel Carriers — Militia Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 19:00 Local Time: Heavy fighting started at Dzerzhinsk and Skotovatay — Militia Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 19:00 Local Time: A huge explosion was heard today in the Leninsky district of Donetsk, reported by the residents of Donetsk. Doors and windows were rattled by the explosion some miles away— Militia, Resident Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 15:30 Local Time: Fighting continues at Gorlovka, Spartak, Pesky, Donetsk City (2 to 3 districts and at Donetsk Airport, Sahanka, Shyrokyne, and Marinka — Militia, Resident Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 15:00 Local Time: Over the past few hours one Ukrainian soldier was killed-in-action at Shyrokyne and one Donetsk Militia soldier was seriously wounded — Militia Source — Not Official Confirmed

UPDATE 15:00 Local Time: Fighting in Donbass continues. At Shyrokyne heavy combat in progress between infantry units of the Ukrainian Army and the Donetsk Militia. Mortar exchanges in progress — Militia Source — Confirmed


LATEST COMBAT REPORTS FROM DONBASS – 25 MAY 2015
May 25, 2015

LINK has NSFW photo

https://ukdissident.wordpress.com/2015/05/25/latest-combat-reports-from-donbass-25-may-2015/

The latest intelligence from Donbass shows definite combat indicators in preparation for full-scale battle operations led by NATO

UPDATE 23:00 LT: Drones sighted over Donetsk City spotting for Ukrainian artillery batteries. Donetsk Militia trying to shoot down UAVs

UPDATE 22:00 Local Time: Avdiivka under intense fire by Ukrainian Forces using heavy artillery, 122mm and 80mm mortars — Militia Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 22:00 Local Time: Combat in progress near Shyrokyne between Ukrainian Army and the Donetsk Militia — Militia Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 22:00 Local Time: Fighting at Kyivskyi District. Ukrainian Army shelled the Kyivskyi District with mortars — Militia, Resident Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 14:00 Local Time: Ukrainian Army moved new BM-21 GRAD and BM-30 Smerch to the frontline — Militia Source — Official Confirmed

UPDATE 13:30 Local Time: Heavy combat in progress near Happiness. One Militia soldier killed-in-action by Ukrainian Army — Militia Source — Not Official Confirmed

UPDATE 13:00 Local Time: Combat in progress at Pesky, Butovka Mine and Avdiivka. Ukrainian Army using heavy artillery 122mm and 152mm – Militia responding to this attack by returning fire on enemy artillery batteries . Ukrainian Forces mounting ceasless attack with heavy artillery — Militia Source — Confirmed

UPDATE 13:00 Local Time: Fighting continues across Donbass. Yesterday at Shyrokyne, one Ukrainian soldier was killed-in-action and two more seriously wounded — Militia Source — Confirmed

Ukraine Watch ‏@UkrWatchTower 12h12 hours ago

Ukraine observers imformed OSCE of barbaric shelling of Avdiivka coke plant, hit by 77 shells



If shelling of a coke plant is "barbaric", what is shelling of innocent civilians in Donbass????

On the scales of God for eternity, I do believe one human life is worth more than a million coke plants.

How about the shelling of water, electricity, homes, schools, hospitals, gas lines, infrastructure in Donbass by Kiev government???

photo of "barbaric shelling" of coke plant

Cowboy's daughter wrote: Ukraine Makes Amnesia the Law of the Land Poroshenko wants his nation to forget its role in Nazi atrocities

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121880/new-laws-ukraine-make-it-illegal-bring-its-ugly-past?utm_content=buffer53e5f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Well actually Hitler was first supported and embraced by the West as a tool to counter Russia. And then we have Taliban and Bin Laden, and ISIS, all were fed by the West to counter Russia or pro-Russia regime. And now we have the corrputed scums in Kyiv.

I cannot imagine how many more scumbags will be fed and supported by the Western oligarcgh, as a tool to counter Russia and "protect" the "democracy" ?