The Situation in the Ukraine. #14

Erk wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:The difference in Donetsk when the Ukrainians aren't shelling - January, May -

Is it still snowing there, or is that very old footage?

No, he spliced footage together: 1. what was happening in Winter, which is awful. I believe that's what was happening before the big debaltsevo (spelling) .
push. He just now came back into Eastern Ukraine/Donetsk, so 2. posted what it's like the day he came back, which was a day or two ago.

Khepesh wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:S-300 train with 5 vehicles reported in village near Mariupol - completly unverified as to time and place

(Is this what was moved from Odessa?) (& is the Kiev side? or ??)

This is Odessa and same unit that was in seen in Odessa last October. This was probably filmed on 20 May.

Thank you!!

sepheronx wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:EU and Ukraine plan joint anti-corruption team

http://trove.com/a/EU-and-Ukraine-plan-joint-anti-corruption-team.fcIKQ?utm_campaign=hosted&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=sns

Hopefully they will arrest the President then.  I mean, after the open evidence of his mansion and destroying a historical site and all.

EU is becoming a major joke.

It struck me as EU does not trust the persons in Ukraine that they are dealing with. lol

Khepesh wrote:I read all the posts about Russia not invading Ukraine because it is a trap, and agree. The few posts I have made about VSN tanks being on lawn of Mariinsky palace by end of September should be seen in the first place as VSN tanks, not Russian, and in the second place as simply a little provocation.

However, what is not mentioned is what happens in the event of a VSN victory on the battlefield. Without making a very long post about this, I will just say that when ukrops forces in the south are destroyed and they cannot then hold the northern front and cover the huge gap from Donetsk to Zaporozhia, and they must cover that as they cannot presume VSN will stop at Mariupol, even tho they probably will, and they by necessity begin to withdraw, perhaps not leaving any forces south of the Donets, what will happen in Kiev? What if there is a civil war or military coup in Kiev and the country collapses in real chaos, who stops this? I believe this is a serious possibility and that Russia must be prepared to invade Ukraine, not in the sense of a war of conquest, but to restore order. Playing clever games of chess to avoid upsetting the "partners" when all Ukraine burns will not be so clever. You see, this is not so easy, for while Russia will not let DNR/LNR loose, the very fact of surviving the ukrops offensive when it comes may well precipitate events that spiral rapidly out of control and upset everything. I am sure thought is given to this in Moscow, and Kiev and Washington, but it seems not so much on the networks.

If, or when, ukrops forces in the south are destroyed , don't you know, there will be panic in Western Ukraine. Who knows what the ultra-Nationalists, if any left, would do...

Khepesh wrote:Boris Rozhin has posted second part of very detailed analysis of murder of Mozgovoi. I'm sure some people will read all of what he says, but for those who do not want to read everything, or anything, as I know some do not like him, a very brief summary. He presents a number of possibilities over both posts and looks at the pros and cons. It is complicated so what I write could be seen as not a 100% accurate assesment of what Rozhin has written, but I'm cutting it down to absolute minimum. In general his, what I would call preliminary conclusion, is similar to my post about this yesterday, that in military technical terms it was not these clowns called "shadows", but real proffesionals and with inside help, treason. And he was killed to ultimately protect "normal" and crimminal business interests that span across Ukraine, Lugansk and Russia, and that killing Mozgovoi will also create divisions within LNR as many will blame Plotnitsky and thrash about and throw manure everywhere. I'm sure many have already seen the firestorm about this in Russian networks and the divisions it has caused, even among people who had until now been "singing from same hymnsheet". However, Rozhin does not point the finger at Plotnitsky, but agrees that he should go because he is not capable and is a liability.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2198800.html
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2199171.html

Similar, Marat Musin is saying that it is not necessarily Dremov who could be eliminated next, but Zakharchenko, and he also points finger at crimminal business interests, in many places....
What Musin says about this affair
http://www.anna-news.info/node/35360

And what he says about Rozhin's assesment, and he also replicates it, so only need to read the first paragraph
http://www.anna-news.info/node/35380

Reading all of what Rozhin and Musin have written and it is very clear that when they talk of "crimminal business", they are not talking about some "ordinary" gangsters, but about the oligarchs and politicians.

What business interests are they protecting? drugs? stealing cars? moving people across borders? ???

THE OLIGARCHIC DEMOCRACY
THE INFLUENCE OF BUSINESS GROUPS
ON UKRAINIAN POLITICS


http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_42_en.pdf

I haven't read all this, but my goodness, just starting out reading it, it seems "maidan" , the coup, was just Oligarchs versus Oligarchs. Certain oligarchs taking power away from Yanukovych, with help from the EU and the USA.
If that's true, then that explains things to me...

Cowboy's daughter wrote:THE OLIGARCHIC DEMOCRACY
THE INFLUENCE OF BUSINESS GROUPS
ON UKRAINIAN POLITICS


http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_42_en.pdf

I haven't read all this, but my goodness, just starting out reading it, it seems "maidan" , the coup, was just Oligarchs versus Oligarchs. Certain oligarchs taking power away from Yanukovych, with help from the EU and the USA.
If that's true, then that explains things to me...

Poroshenko and Kolomosky both have US passports. .
AND both visited USA before Madian

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Boris Rozhin has posted second part of very detailed analysis of murder of Mozgovoi. I'm sure some people will read all of what he says, but for those who do not want to read everything, or anything, as I know some do not like him, a very brief summary. He presents a number of possibilities over both posts and looks at the pros and cons. It is complicated so what I write could be seen as not a 100% accurate assesment of what Rozhin has written, but I'm cutting it down to absolute minimum. In general his, what I would call preliminary conclusion, is similar to my post about this yesterday, that in military technical terms it was not these clowns called "shadows", but real proffesionals and with inside help, treason. And he was killed to ultimately protect "normal" and crimminal business interests that span across Ukraine, Lugansk and Russia, and that killing Mozgovoi will also create divisions within LNR as many will blame Plotnitsky and thrash about and throw manure everywhere. I'm sure many have already seen the firestorm about this in Russian networks and the divisions it has caused, even among people who had until now been "singing from same hymnsheet". However, Rozhin does not point the finger at Plotnitsky, but agrees that he should go because he is not capable and is a liability.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2198800.html
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2199171.html

Similar, Marat Musin is saying that it is not necessarily Dremov who could be eliminated next, but Zakharchenko, and he also points finger at crimminal business interests, in many places....
What Musin says about this affair
http://www.anna-news.info/node/35360

And what he says about Rozhin's assesment, and he also replicates it, so only need to read the first paragraph
http://www.anna-news.info/node/35380

Reading all of what Rozhin and Musin have written and it is very clear that when they talk of "crimminal business", they are not talking about some "ordinary" gangsters, but about the oligarchs and politicians.

What business interests are they protecting? drugs? stealing cars? moving people across borders?  ???

The first two, plus coal plus anything where there is profit. Lugansk was very corrupt at all levels of crimminality and spiders trapped many unwary people in their webs, even schools, and anymore is unpleasant to say....

Edit: It is not to say that people of Lugansk are immoral crimminals, they are not, but that minority of people who in any society are crimminal, were allowed to continue their activities because the state itself at the highest level and it's apparatchiks was crimminal.

A quote from Strelkov about Mozgovoi and the latest from Shirokino.

Only one comment:
Anyone who defends the heroically-professional actions of ukrop DRGs are divided into two categories:

1. Naive people

2. Trolls working from Surkov's training manual.

According to the latest data from Shirokino:

The positions of the Republican Guard DNR undergo fierce shelling from heavy artillery and mortars. Large losses and return artillery fire is prohibited.

Shows how complicated and divisive the death of Mozgovoi has become, as Strelkov is attacked for this by people who once saw him as a "god", and others who did not like him now agree with him. Ukrops laugh....

Khepesh wrote:A quote from Strelkov about Mozgovoi and the latest from Shirokino.

Only one comment:
Anyone who defends the heroically-professional actions of ukrop DRGs are divided into two categories:

1. Naive people

2. Trolls working from Surkov's training manual.

According to the latest data from Shirokino:

The positions of the Republican Guard DNR undergo fierce shelling from heavy artillery and mortars. Large losses and return artillery fire is prohibited.

Shows how complicated and divisive the death of Mozgovoi has become, as Strelkov is attacked for this by people who once saw him as a "god", and others who did not like him now agree with him. Ukrops laugh....

So the DNR is being shelled in Shirokino (with large losses) and they are not allowed to shoot back? Why? Let me guess: Moscow wants the DNR to respect the Minsk agreement and not upset it's western partners?

I have already spent too much time to follow this war rooting for Novorossiya. If they don't want to fight they deserve to be defeated. The ukrops are more deserving winners since they actually want to defeat the enemy.

I understand the frustration of people like Monarchist who have followed the war a lot more emotionally than I have.

See here is how I see things are going down in LNR and DNR.

You have UAF which are in a piss poor condition right now, just dug in and shelling on command from their HQ. Many are 'veterans' and some just want revenge for their fallen.
You have UA Volunteer battalions that are better equipped than the UAF, work almost like paid henchmen for the UA Oligarchs.
Then you have the Polish Mercs, American and Swedish Advisors and trainers that are trying to 'help' fight Russian backed separatists (They are RUSSIANS lol)
Some days ago, some unspecified group of personnel with western silenced weapons raided a Right Sector FOB and killed a bunch of them. It was there on TASS.

On this side, we have 2 sides. LNR and DNR. We cant call it Novorossiya simply because that plan was abandoned. The only time Novorossiya fought as one was in Debaltsevo.
In DNR, we have the well know Battalions Vostok, Somali, Sparta. DNR is led by Zarachenko. But all of them have been 'integrated' now.
In LNR, we had many battalions, Batman (RRG), Prizrak, Diesel, and the Cossacks (which have time and again been accused of fleeing but from the intel i have, they have been fighting to the last man, last ukrop that is)
LNR is led by Igor Polotensky (AKA Carpenter), i am sorry if i didnt spell it right, i dont know.

So starting 2015, January, we have had :
Assassination of Alexander Bednov, Commander Batman - Ambushed along with his bodyguards, weapons used included a BTR
Assassination of Evgeny Ishchenko - Mayor LNR, after he accused Carpenter of foul play.
Attempt on the life of Alexie Mozgovoi - same location, 2 mines, IEDs - they dont use proper weapons at all but improvised weaponry that does point to unprofessional assailants.
Attempt on the life of Givi - He managed to shoot the guys sent to shoot him
Assassination of Aleksie Mozgovoi
Now completely unrelated : Attempt on the life of Nataliya Polsinkiya.
I think she has been targeted twice already, by criminal elements, improvised weaponry both times.

A number of Anti-Ukrop personalities in UA were recently assassinated, and death of some was concluded as 'suicide' while it didnt even make sense.

Now there are MANY theories, thanks to Batman allowing NeoNazis under his command, his death went untold. But Like Mozgovoi he was a man of principles. Ex-UA Special Ops.
Countless theories come up, Kremlin wants them dead, local drug lords want them dead, UA wants them dead (lol but yeah its a story), Corrupt Bureaucrats want them dead.

Now one story that NEVER comes up is : Some months ago, in LNR, the militia captured RU Spetsnaz who were in contact with UA forces as well as the militia, playing both sides - so to speak.
This did in fact happen. One can now understand why Igor Strelkov left the region so early in the game, he realized what was going to happen.

Now to conclude what is happening :
Both sides are being played against each other, profits are being made, civilians are the one that are at loss, on both sides. Its like any war.
The sooner people realize this is happening, the better it is. US is filling UA with Nuclear fuel rods that wont work, all the monetary aid UA is getting is being diverted to buying old, shit tier weapons from UK, and other NATO partners. Examples being Saxon APC, the ADS they just received etc. As for Novorossiya, its complicated. At times rumors about ONR (Odessa Narodnya Respublike), KNR (Kharkov), MNR (Mariupol) have come up but nothing solid has taken place. With all these assassinations, corruption allegations, rumor mills, I cant figure out if its an attempt to spoil Putin's image or to establish a HUGE crime syndicate in the region. Because the conditions are befitting for both. I have not spoken about the civilian opinion on either sides because at times it seems they just dont care at all, Maidanites being an exception. Ofcourse, losses of loved ones does stir emotions but the many people i talked to on either sides are indifferent about the whole thing.

All criticism is welcome, this is just my view on how things are right now in the region.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:THE OLIGARCHIC DEMOCRACY
THE INFLUENCE OF BUSINESS GROUPS
ON UKRAINIAN POLITICS


http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_42_en.pdf

I haven't read all this, but my goodness, just starting out reading it, it seems "maidan" , the coup, was just Oligarchs versus Oligarchs. Certain oligarchs taking power away from Yanukovych, with help from the EU and the USA.
If that's true, then that explains things to me...

I beg to differ. Yanukovych is no oligarch, never has been one. Yanukovych is a politician through and through. Correct me if I'm wrong, Yanukovych never operated any business. Poroshenko on the other hand is a true oligarch.

As for Maidan, it is a CIA project to establish US military bases in eastern Ukraine and park Abrams tanks right on Russia's border. Ukraine joining NATO is not an objective of the Maidan project. It could be a bonus, but it is not necessary.

sepheronx wrote:How much are losses for DNR forces being shelled right now? And if they cant return fire, how are Ukrops dying?

NAF is allowed to return fire with small arms and hopefully also with 82 mm mortars. NAF is not allowed to use any arms whose caliber is above 100 mm. I think it is sufficient. Dragunov is 7.62 mm caliber and can drop a man from 800 meters away. Using small arms will minimize collateral casualities on civilians.  1 Maidan soldier was KIA yesterday, so NAF is able to inflict losses on Maidan using only small arms.

According to this a troop column with Uragan MLRS  has crossed into Ukraine from Russia. If correct then something larger than usual might be cooking. (if this report is even true, it is Reuters after all...)

Ukrops will claim invasion!!!1!! but I would go with Russia responding to recent "bending of rules" from UAF. No reason not to preempt whatever BS Ukraine might be pulling.
Like I said before, they have been trying to "sneak in" results by gradually increasing intensity of shelling and pretending to be victims while doing it, just like during winter.

http://www.military-informant.com/news/9032-zhurnalist-reuters-sfotografiroval-ogromnuyu-rossijskuyu-voennuyu-kolonu-na-granitse-s-ukrainoj.html

sepheronx wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

sepheronx wrote:How much are losses for DNR forces being shelled right now? And if they cant return fire, how are Ukrops dying?

NAF is allowed to return fire with small arms and hopefully also with 82 mm mortars. NAF is not allowed to use any arms whose caliber is above 100 mm. I think it is sufficient. Dragunov is 7.62 mm caliber and can drop a man from 400 meters away. Using small arms will minimize collateral casualities on civilians.  1 Maidan soldier was KIA yesterday, so NAF is able to inflict losses on Maidan using only small arms.

If they are still using mortars to deal with the Ukrops, good.

Not exactly sure if NAF is allowed to use mortars, but so far they are allowed to use 7.62 mm Dragunov rifles which is good. At least NAF does not have to fight back with knives. There was a talk sometime back this month of removing arms under 100 mm caliber from NAF. If that happens, then NAF will have to fight back with knives.

But so far because Maidan is allowed to use heavy artillery whereas NAF is not allowed, it is likely 10 NAF soldiers killed for every Maidan soldier killed.

sepheronx wrote:How much are losses for DNR forces being shelled right now? And if they cant return fire, how are Ukrops dying?

It is possible that a full on assault by ukrops on Shirokino is underway. It's difficult to see clearly and may simply be yet more "trolling" by them.

Report by locals of shelling in Donetsk Kievsky district within the last hour. Also the sound of heavy artillery from the north, and Voice of Sevastopol are now reporting heavy artillery fire on VSN positions near Avdeevka.

It ramps up, not yet IT, but I think day by day more and more and it will soon be the usual litany of reports of shelling from Kievsky, Kirovsky, Kuibishevsky, Petrovsky just as it was last summer and January.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:THE OLIGARCHIC DEMOCRACY
THE INFLUENCE OF BUSINESS GROUPS
ON UKRAINIAN POLITICS


http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_42_en.pdf

I haven't read all this, but my goodness, just starting out reading it, it seems "maidan" , the coup, was just Oligarchs versus Oligarchs. Certain oligarchs taking power away from Yanukovych, with help from the EU and the USA.
If that's true, then that explains things to me...

There quite some peepz on MP.net that were banned for that one. That means they spoke the truth.

Akula971 wrote:You have UAF which are in a piss poor condition right now, just dug in and shelling on command from their HQ. Many are 'veterans' and some just want revenge for their fallen.

Many of those veterans are piss poor and need the money, conscripts that are so poor that can't afford to pay the needed bribes to avoid being drafted also need the money.

Akula971 wrote:You have UA Volunteer battalions that are better equipped than the UAF, work almost like paid henchmen for the UA Oligarchs.
Then you have the Polish Mercs, American and Swedish Advisors and trainers that are trying to 'help' fight Russian backed separatists (They are RUSSIANS lol)

Ideological tools are precious power assets when your power depends on them, it's not a coincidence that the National Guard and the Volunteer Battalions are the ones receiving the training and the gadgets instead of the Army.

Akula971 wrote:Some days ago, some unspecified group of personnel with western silenced weapons raided a Right Sector FOB and killed a bunch of them. It was there on TASS.

It had the Oligarch Private Army™ all over it.

Akula971 wrote:On this side, we have 2 sides. LNR and DNR. We cant call it Novorossiya simply because that plan was abandoned. The only time Novorossiya fought as one was in Debaltsevo.

Most political activists are either in jail or hiding, obviously the project had to be put on hold until a new strategy emerges.

Akula971 wrote:In DNR, we have the well know Battalions Vostok, Somali, Sparta. DNR is led by Zarachenko. But all of them have been 'integrated' now.
In LNR, we had many battalions, Batman (RRG), Prizrak, Diesel, and the Cossacks (which have time and again been accused of fleeing but from the intel i have, they have been fighting to the last man, last ukrop that is)
LNR is led by Igor Polotensky (AKA Carpenter), i am sorry if i didn't spell it right, i don't know.

The creation of centralised structures was more easy in Donetsk because it was less fractured and more organised (read less lawless) from the start than Lugansk, in part thanks to Rinat Akhmetov and it's power grip on the region that continues even today.

Akula971 wrote:So starting 2015, January, we have had :
Assassination of Alexander Bednov, Commander Batman - Ambushed along with his bodyguards, weapons used included a BTR
Assassination of Evgeny Ishchenko - Mayor LNR, after he accused Carpenter of foul play.
Attempt on the life of Alexie Mozgovoi - same location, 2 mines, IEDs - they dont use proper weapons at all but improvised weaponry that does point to unprofessional assailants.
Attempt on the life of Givi - He managed to shoot the guys sent to shoot him
Assassination of Aleksie Mozgovoi
Now completely unrelated : Attempt on the life of Nataliya Polsinkiya.
I think she has been targeted twice already, by criminal elements, improvised weaponry both times.

I can't comment on every case since I don't know the details of every one.

Akula971 wrote:A number of Anti-Ukrop personalities in UA were recently assassinated, and death of some was concluded as 'suicide' while it didn't even make sense.

Political crimes as a result of Kiev power plays.

Akula971 wrote:Now there are MANY theories, thanks to Batman allowing NeoNazis under his command, his death went untold. But Like Mozgovoi he was a man of principles. Ex-UA Special Ops.
Countless theories come up, Kremlin wants them dead, local drug lords want them dead, UA wants them dead (lol but yeah its a story), Corrupt Bureaucrats want them dead.

Donbass was a very corrupt place even before Maidan with many power plays, personal grievances, criminal syndicates, oligarchs, unresolved scores, conflicting interests, etc. Local militias are a lucrative business but at the same time have spoiled many lucrative businesses for people in the region and outside of it.

Akula971 wrote:Now one story that NEVER comes up is : Some months ago, in LNR, the militia captured RU Spetsnaz who were in contact with UA forces as well as the militia, playing both sides - so to speak.
This did in fact happen. One can now understand why Igor Strelkov left the region so early in the game, he realized what was going to happen.

Strelkov understood that he was an outsider for local caciques to deal with them effectively.

Akula971 wrote:Now to conclude what is happening :
Both sides are being played against each other, profits are being made, civilians are the one that are at loss, on both sides. Its like any war.

This conflict is not a typical war because one side can't alienate the other side's population.

Akula971 wrote:The sooner people realize this is happening, the better it is. US is filling UA with Nuclear fuel rods that wont work, all the monetary aid UA is getting is being diverted to buying old, shit tier weapons from UK, and other NATO partners. Examples being Saxon APC, the ADS they just received etc. As for Novorossiya, its complicated. At times rumors about ONR (Odessa Narodnya Respublike), KNR (Kharkov), MNR (Mariupol) have come up but nothing solid has taken place. With all these assassinations, corruption allegations, rumor mills, I cant figure out if its an attempt to spoil Putin's image or to establish a HUGE crime syndicate in the region. Because the conditions are befitting for both. I have not spoken about the civilian opinion on either sides because at times it seems they just dont care at all, Maidanites being an exception. Ofcourse, losses of loved ones does stir emotions but the many people i talked to on either sides are indifferent about the whole thing.

Ukraine is 90's Russia but worse in all things imaginables. The reason behind the apparent indifference is that people have learnt to live like that for too long to care about it.

Posting in this thread as well as it covers both Novorossiya and Transnistria.

Possibility that a move may be made on Transnistria to see what reaction from Russia, and if weak, then the operation against Novorossiya will be launched. The S-300 battery seen in the recent video had been moved a little along the coast east of Odessa, possibly to give an earlier shoot down ability on any Russian air assistance from Sevastopol. Reports from Odessa locals in the last 30 minutes of ukrops helicopter movements.

Khepesh wrote:Posting in this thread as well as it covers both Novorossiya and Transnistria.

Possibility that a move may be made on Transnistria to see what reaction from Russia, and if weak, then the operation against Novorossiya will be launched. The S-300 battery seen in the recent video had been moved a little along the coast east of Odessa, possibly to give an earlier shoot down ability on any Russian air assistance from Sevastopol. Reports from Odessa locals in the last 30 minutes of ukrops helicopter movements.

Moldova's government can't take Transdniester by their own means and Ukraine has no manpower to spare in such adventure without risking a bloody nose and triggering violent protests by Moldovan opposition against the frail coalition in power since their take on the issue is dialog instead of force, not to mention the possible ramifications in Southern Ukraine because the blockade is not kosher.

Kiev have been moving that rusted battery around Odessa every time they expect a new cargo vessel full of gift boxes.

Khepesh wrote:Posting in this thread as well as it covers both Novorossiya and Transnistria.

Possibility that a move may be made on Transnistria to see what reaction from Russia, and if weak, then the operation against Novorossiya will be launched. The S-300 battery seen in the recent video had been moved a little along the coast east of Odessa, possibly to give an earlier shoot down ability on any Russian air assistance from Sevastopol. Reports from Odessa locals in the last 30 minutes of ukrops helicopter movements.

Is this an independent assessment or did this come from a source? That is quite an interesting theory on the major military presence in Odessa, much better than the "preparing for a Russian invasion from Krim or Transnistria" excuse that was implied by Ukrop propaganda multiple times before.

Anyhow, openly downing a Russian military aircraft is one of the best ways to give Russia a reason to attack. I am doubtful Ukraine would follow through with this idea seeing that Poroshenko's superiors in the West want to give Russia a very good reason to flatten Ukraine seeing as Ukraine has always backtracked when it openly provoked Russia (see all the border incidents from the BMP to all the artillery strikes last summer). Not to mention it is an incredibly risky move, the Hohols are counting on Russia not engaging them, but if Russia returns fire (in a case like this I am almost confident they will) the Ukrainian army would not last a week.

whir wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Posting in this thread as well as it covers both Novorossiya and Transnistria.

Possibility that a move may be made on Transnistria to see what reaction from Russia, and if weak, then the operation against Novorossiya will be launched. The S-300 battery seen in the recent video had been moved a little along the coast east of Odessa, possibly to give an earlier shoot down ability on any Russian air assistance from Sevastopol. Reports from Odessa locals in the last 30 minutes of ukrops helicopter movements.

Moldova's government can't take Transdniester by their own means and Ukraine has no manpower to spare in such adventure without risking a bloody nose and triggering violent protests by Moldovan opposition against the frail coalition in power since their take on the issue is dialog instead of force, not to mention the possible ramifications in Southern Ukraine because the blockade is not kosher.

Kiev have been moving that rusted battery around Odessa every time they expect a new cargo vessel full of gift boxes.

A move against, not necessarily an invasion. As Transnistria is seen as simply a Russian enclave there would not be any serious noises from the west. I'm aware of the complications, but these situations will not remain in stasis forever and I think in the current political climate people will see opportunities.