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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    flamming_python
    flamming_python


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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:41 am

    Rodinazombie wrote:
    whir wrote:
    Tак Точно wrote:06.06.15 Kiev. Thousands of people demand the resignation of Poroshenko and authorities

    Meh.

    Its all well and good that are are protesting against the government because of how shitty their lives have become, but i dont see a single word of complaint about that same government murdering their countrymen a few hundred miles away.

    They make me sick.


    Fits with an observation I read not long ago; that Kievians are more and more sick of their government, but continue to show little remorse for their government's actions in the Donbass or sympathy with the people there.
    Hatred of Russians overcomes all barriers apparently.

    Personally I don't care about their reasons, I care only that dissent is rising and about how soon the govenrment can be overthrown; so that the war can stop and the Donbass can be free.
    The Kievans and the rest of the Ukraine can keep their hatred and bile; at the end of the day they'll be the ones facing the fallout from the continued collapse of their own economy and even more political anarchy; their reasons and opinions are ultimately not important, the stage is already set.

    I know plenty of good Kievians BTW. I hope they'll have enough sense to leave the country; if they need my help I'll give it.
    Erk
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    Post  Erk Sun Jun 07, 2015 2:30 am

    flamming_python wrote:

    Fits with an observation I read not long ago; that Kievians are more and more sick of their government, but continue to show little remorse for their government's actions in the Donbass or sympathy with the people there.
    Hatred of Russians overcomes all barriers apparently.

    Personally I don't care about their reasons, I care only that dissent is rising and about how soon the govenrment can be overthrown; so that the war can stop and the Donbass can be free.
    The Kievans and the rest of the Ukraine can keep their hatred and bile; at the end of the day they'll be the ones facing the fallout from the continued collapse of their own economy and even more political anarchy; their reasons and opinions are ultimately not important, the stage is already set.

    I know plenty of good Kievians BTW. I hope they'll have enough sense to leave the country; if they need my help I'll give it.

    They are leaving the country in droves, it's not the war in Donbass that's causing it either, it's the economic collapse, Kiev are doing their best to blame it on Russia, but spending on war instead of pensions is inexcusable to people who grew up with respect for socialism. Right wing greed has destroyed the country.

    OminousSpudd
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    Post  OminousSpudd Sun Jun 07, 2015 2:41 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:

    Meh.

    Its all well and good that are are protesting against the government because of how shitty their lives have become, but i dont see a single word of complaint about that same government murdering their countrymen a few hundred miles away.

    They make me sick.


    Fits with an observation I read not long ago; that Kievians are more and more sick of their government, but continue to show little remorse for their government's actions in the Donbass or sympathy with the people there.
    Hatred of Russians overcomes all barriers apparently.

    Personally I don't care about their reasons, I care only that dissent is rising and about how soon the govenrment can be overthrown; so that the war can stop and the Donbass can be free.
    The Kievans and the rest of the Ukraine can keep their hatred and bile; at the end of the day they'll be the ones facing the fallout from the continued collapse of their own economy and even more political anarchy; their reasons and opinions are ultimately not important, the stage is already set.

    I know plenty of good Kievians BTW. I hope they'll have enough sense to leave the country; if they need my help I'll give it.

    The most sickening issue is their apparent refusal to see who destroyed their country. They can blame their government all day, but will blatantly ignore the real instigators until it kills them, literally. In saying this, the sheer volume of propaganda that is being shoved down their throats by their national news is apparently quite legendary, and outside of that they have the Western Press joining in chorus. Essentially caught between a rock and a hard place. unshaven

    As for them and them alone facing the fallout of a destroyed Ukraine... I have to disagree. If we see Ukraine turn into a Libya (especially if the fledgeling Novorossiya disintegrates) then it means there is a failed state and criminal safe haven leaking not only into Europe, but also into Russia. Russia has more than had it's fill of neighbouring extremists, a failed Ukraine is not exactly what they need at this moment in time, especially with things going so well economically. A lot of Eastern Europe (particularly the Balkans) would probably implode rather dramatically. Considering faction wars are already a thing, what with Kolomoisky and the rest, I wouldn't be the least surprised if any semblance of order or government control disappeared almost entirely when the race to acquire the last of the country's wealth goes live. Wild dogs with a bone.      

    On the other hand if Novorossiya doesn't fall apart, then the situation could play out better than any of us hoped for. Novorossiya becomes the buffer against failed Ukraine, Europe bears the brunt of the fallout which would likely put pressure on the corresponding governments and in turn stress relations with the US.

    ... I'll er, show myself out. yes sir


    Last edited by OminousSpudd on Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:02 am; edited 1 time in total
    Big_Gazza
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    Post  Big_Gazza Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:25 am

    Neutrality wrote:Not a single word about this in our press. It's not important to report how pissed people are with Poroshenko's policies. Hell, the brutal beatdown of the LGBT march today wasn't even covered. It only counts when Russia doesn't allow it Laughing

    Hell, can you imagine the OUTRAGE if a fudge-packer/rug-muncher Shame March was disrupted in Moscow and the marchers were bashed by right-wing nationalist types? The headlines would be "Putin bashes Gays", and the commentary sections would be full of the frenzied blatherings of Russophobes like Masha Gessen or Alexander Motyl.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:34 am

    OminousSpudd wrote:.
    ......................................

    Well thank you for calling us Balkan Boys western Europeans. lol1  I think that may have upset some western Europeans in the proces though...

    Novorossia will not fall, after last August and January we can say that with decent amount of certainty.

    Ukraine as a failed state is very harmful for Europe but for Russia it's actually beneficial. If that place implodes then kaviar munchers will have no problems with remaking that place according to their needs with no military involment and with very low financial investment to boot. russia
    OminousSpudd
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    Post  OminousSpudd Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:58 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:.
    ......................................

    Well thank you for calling us Balkan Boys western Europeans. lol1  I think that may have upset some western Europeans in the proces though...

    Novorossia will not fall, after last August and January we can say that with decent amount of certainty.

    Ukraine as a failed state is very harmful for Europe but for Russia it's actually beneficial. If that place implodes then kaviar munchers will have no problems with remaking that place according to their needs with no military involment and with very low financial investment to boot. russia

    My mistake. *Eastern Europe.
    BKP
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    Post  BKP Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:42 am

    Vann7 wrote:People should take a loot at history.. of US undercover wars and interventionism..
    against Soviets..

    In the next report.. shows How in Public American Government was demanding the soviets
    to Leave Afganistan.. while at the same time undercovertly ,they were doing sabotage against
    soviets to keep them in Afganistan..  

    And also explain how before the soviets Invaded Afganistan..
    Americans had a plan to provoke Soviets Invading it..

    In other words the US government provoked Soviets ,into a war with afganistan and later
    to maintan them there Inside afganistan..and not leave..through Attacks on Soviet Union territory by muslins..

    So the invasion helps american propaganda and narrative to demonize Russia.. while keeping them inside Afganistan helps to drain their economy.. and this is exactly what they are now trying to do in Ukraine..  Soviets Invaded Afganistan in response of US undercover attacks from there to soviet territories.

    Said in other words.. The american government was in front of Cameras and media
    condemning Russia invasion.. but behind the cameras they were celebrating and cheering
    Russia invasion and using their money to keep Soviets pinned down in Afganistan ,to drain their economy.

    http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20150602/1022855357.html

    And this is exactly what they are doing in Ukraine.. to create a new attrition war ,with NATO
    fighting RUssia to the last ukrainian and arming them. But they really miscalculated and it did not happened.  Putin actually Reversed the roles.. and is now Americans and Europe the ones paying the bigger price for maintaining Ukraine economy while they continue a war..  

    US and Kiev (at orders of americans).. have been intentionally provoking Russia to invade Ukraine. . Because this will help US and anglozionist allies in their demonization propaganda
    of RUssia.. with the help of **fabricated massacres and warcrimes reports**  against Ukrainians that will be blamed on Russia. exactly as the Malasyan plane was blamed on Putin.. but failed to convince for the reason of Russia open ,generous and almost friendly Aptitude towards Ukraine..
    So this is why people believed Putin sold the rebels.. but is diplomacy tactics to protect Russia from allowing United States to take full advantage of the ukrainian conflict . to demonize Russia.


    So in that report you will see how this Old tactics of creating a trap for Russia ,are being Re-Used again in Ukraine..  If Russia invade as Americans really hope to see..Russia will be pushed
    to continue invading beyond Donetsk and Lugansk.. easily by genocide of Ethnic Russians in other cities.. done by the CIANazis.. And this will also help in the propaganda of NATO media to demonize Russia. and create a united front in europe against "Russia agression".

    Fortunately Putin is more clever and have done things undercover.. and even signed a peace deal ,that essentially looks likes a major betray of the Rebels.. is a master piece Agreement that puts the Ball in Urkraine to do Reforms if they want to retake Donetsk and Lugansk.  The Donetsk and Lugansk ministers knowing that Ukraine will NOT do reforms ..agree to run with the game.  Very Happy

    Unfortunately is not perfect decision ,because Ukraine continues shelling and killing civilians..
    But if Putin is now forced to invade.. it will be more harder for Obama and its government to
    run its propaganda.  Russia can simply use for a small time its airforce. Push the ukies 20 to 30km farther from rebels cities.

    When it comes to Tansmitia is more complicate Russia could be forced to invade to invade odessa but the good news is that it looks like Russia already was expecting that move..and
    had a plan. and that people in Odessa will receive Russia with open arms.

    For me the biggest problem is Ukraine Nuclear reactors.. Russia and the Rebels needs to stay away of it..as far from possible.. because any accident will be blamed on Russia and Rebels..
    and Kiev controlling 100% of the information in media that Ukrainians see is not going to help.

    This is why i think.. that even if Russia invade ,it will have to be temporary short time only to restore order and then leave as soon as possible..and demand kiev to start reforms. and not allow the Rebels to go far beyond their controlled zones.. Until Kiev collapse.. and or
    the entire country start a rebelion and Russia is welcome to interfere by most ukrainians.

    The conflict in Marinika i really think the Rebels only intention was to destroy the Ukies artillery and punish them and beat and later ordered to retreat to maintain the Minsk-2 agreement open.
    Is a city too close to Mariupol and from there they can be blamed of shelling civilians as before.



    Agree, especially with the part I bolded, and I've said as much before. IMO, Moscow's strategy is the correct one. It is the one that is most likely to lead to eventual (significant) de-nazification of Ukraine.

    I believe this because the ideological sickness that has now manifested its natural consequences in Ukraine first incubated for decades, at least. After enough Ukrainians have lived with those consequences for a sufficient length of time their attitudes will start to change at a fundamental level.

    This is unfortunate but necessary; if the Russians had just immediately moved in and imposed their own order, that natural process would not work its way through. Instead, much of the animosity could and would be shifted to those portrayed as "invaders" oppressing Ukrainian choice (again). Well, let them have their choice and live with it. Moscow seems to be betting this thesis will generate a real and lasting antithesis.

    The way I see it, the hard part of the strategy is that some of the people to whom we are most sympathetic are going to die in the meantime. However, it was sadly unavoidable that people were going to die regardless. It takes emotional discipline to never forget this fact and stick to the strategy. This is why I'm glad that Putin and his team are in charge as opposed to someone like, well, me, for instance. I'm too much of a hothead, and would likely have played right into the neocon trap that was set. I think what you posted identifies that trap very accurately.

    P.S., Thanks to those who finally +1'd me. I was starting to think I'd be stuck at "1" forever. cheers
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    Post  whir Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:16 am

    TASS wrote:9 civilians, 35 militias killed in DPR over past week — human rights ombudsman
    World June 05, 21:53 UTC+3

    Earlier on Friday, DPR defence ministry spokesman Eduard Basurin said twenty servicemen had been killed and 99 more had been wounded in hostilities in the town of Maryinka

    MOSCOW, June 5. /TASS/. As many as 44 people, both militias and civilians, have been killed in shelling in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over past week, the DPR human rights ombudsperson said in a report issued on Friday.

    "In a period from May 30 to June 5, 2015, nine civilians and 35 servicement have beek killed in combat operations," the document said. As many as 48 civilians and 29 militias have been hospitalized with wounds.

    Earlier on Friday, DPR defence ministry spokesman Eduard Basurin said twenty servicemen had been killed and 99 more had been wounded in hostilities in the town of Maryinka. Meanwhile, DPR head Alexander Zakharchenko said Ukraine’s losses in manpower had exceeded 400 servicemen, more than 1,000 had been wounded.

    High-intensity battlefield involving Ukrainian troops and militias was reported in Maryinka near Donetsk on Wednesday. According to the spokesman for defence ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Eduard Basurin, "it was a large-scale provocation by Ukrainian troops" aimed at diverting attention from preparations for a large-scale operation in the Luhansk region.

    The 13-point Package of Measures on implementation of the September 2014 Minsk agreements included an agreement on cessation of fire from February 15, withdrawal of heavy armaments, as well as measures on long-term political settlement of the situation in Ukraine, including enforcement of a special self-rule status for certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Continue reading.

    TASS wrote:Ukraine troops shelling DPR village after OSCE observers leave, says local official
    World June 05, 19:55 UTC+3

    According to the republic’s defense ministry, Ukrainian troops have violated truce 46 times over the past 24 hours

    MOSCOW, June 5. /TASS/. Ukrainian troops have resumed the shelling of Telmanovo district of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic shortly after observers from the OSCE mission left, the head of the regional administration, Sergey Ivanov, reports.

    According to Ivanov, they used heavy weaponry to shell the settlement of Grigoryevskoye. "Nobody has been injured as of yet," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying.

    He said residents of a neighborhood remained without electricity supply.

    In earlier reports, Ivanov said a four-year-old boy was killed and four civilians were wounded in the shelling overnight to June 5.

    According to the republic’s defense ministry, Ukrainian troops have violated truce 46 times over the past 24 hours.

    They used multiple rocket launcher systems three times, and heavy artillery was used 21 times. A ministry official said 16 DPR settlements had been damaged in the shelling. Continue reading.

    Sputnik wrote:International Monitors Report Explosions in East Ukraine's Donetsk
    EUROPE 02:25 07.06.2015(updated 02:54 07.06.2015)

    OSCE monitors reported numerous explosions at and around the Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine, pointing to violations of the existing ceasefire between the army and militias.

    MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) on Saturday reported numerous explosions at and around the Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine, pointing to violations of the existing ceasefire between the army and militias, their latest report said.
    The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine said that on Friday "the SMM observed a total of 88 explosions, most of which were part of an exchange of fire…"

    According to monitors, government troops deployed near the international airport, northwest of Donetsk, exchanged fire with local self-defense forces stationed immediately to the east of the airport.

    "The SMM assessed that the weapons being fired were artillery over 100mm," the report said. This came despite the existing ceasefire deal that had both warring parties withdraw their heavy weapons from the line of contact. Continue reading.

    wrote:Putin’s Secret Warriors: Russian Soldiers Sent to Fight in Ukraine
    BY MAKSYMILIAN CZUPERSKI , JOHN HERBST , ALINA POLYAKOVA , AND DAMON WILSON 6/6/15 AT 11:04 AM

    Extracted from the Atlantic Council report Hiding In Plain Sight: Putin’s War In Ukraine.

    On March 2, 2015, U.S. Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges estimated that 12,000 Russian soldiers, including “military advisers, weapons operators and combat troops,” are active in eastern Ukraine.

    There have been hundreds, likely thousands, of Russian citizens who have voluntarily crossed the border into Ukraine on their own accord. Putin has confirmed this, and many eager Russians even filled out online applications to join the separatist ranks—that is how easy it is to become a separatist fighter in Ukraine.

    The Russian military is sending its soldiers across the border to mix with Russian-instigated separatist forces in Ukraine. Once in eastern Ukraine, these soldiers are no longer considered Russian; rather they are told to refer to themselves as “local defense forces,” aiding the separatist soldiers with additional manpower and Russian equipment.

    The Russian government denies that regular Russian soldiers are fighting and dying throughout eastern Ukraine. However, the presence of Russian soldiers on Ukrainian territory has become undeniable following the steady stream of coffins returning to Russia under the label “Cargo 200.”

    A series of exposé reports from local Russian news outlets, and a number of cases in which Russian soldiers accidentally revealed their presence in Ukraine on social media, confirm that the regular Russian military is active in Ukraine. Both Western and Russian journalists have uncovered the troubling details of active Russian soldiers who have died or suffered serious injuries in Ukraine.

    These reports include not only eye-witness accounts and photographs of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but also interviews with the grief-stricken parents whose sons died fighting among the so-called local separatists in eastern Ukraine.

    Russian soldiers enter Ukraine from nearby border camps. As described in numerous interviews with Russian soldiers who have fought in Ukraine, commanders will order soldiers to conceal the identifying features of military vehicles, remove insignia from uniforms and finally travel across the border to join separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.

    There are also reports of Russian soldiers quitting the Russian army out of fear of being sent to fight in Ukraine under pressure from commanding officers.

    Despite an orchestrated campaign from the Russian government, the coffins arriving from Ukraine cannot be hidden. The following incidents have been confirmed through investigative journalism by independent Russian and Western media outlets: Continue reading.

    Bloomberg wrote:Ukraine Conflict Senior Mediator Resigns as Truce Crumbles
    by Henry MeyerAndy HoffmanJosh Wingrove June 6, 2015 — 4:54 PM CEST Updated on June 6, 2015 — 6:42 PM CEST

    The senior international mediator in Ukraine quit as fighting worsened in the more than one year-old conflict between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian forces.

    Heidi Tagliavini, a Swiss diplomat who played a key role in negotiating a February cease-fire and peace deal, has decided to resign as special envoy of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Switzerland’s Foreign Ministry said Saturday.

    The resignation came as Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper pledged officers and funding to bolster the Ukrainian police force during a visit to Kiev, in his country’s latest show of support for Ukraine in its standoff with Russia.

    “Tagliavini’s resignation reflects her growing frustration and is another sign that the peace process is basically dead,” Joerg Forbrig, a senior program director at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. in Berlin, said by telephone. “The expectation is we will see an escalation this summer.” Continue reading.

    Vox Populi Evo wrote:Captured Ukr. Recon. Operative: Ukr Army was the first to open fire on Marinka | ENG DE SUBS

    Vox Populi Evo wrote:Battle for Mar'inka. Injury of "Pyatnashka" brigade fighter, June 3rd | Eng Subs

    Дивись Інфо wrote:Poroshenko - x @ Lo - AC rally in Lviv

    A Red Rover wrote:Donbas Dispatch #14: Mozgovoy's assassination

    24 Канал wrote:A resident of Zaporozhye went to work to paint couples ...
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    Post  Rodinazombie Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:56 am



    If it were up to me, russia would have attacked ukraine after the odessa fire last year, or at the latest when they started shelling civilians in slavyansk, so, as you say, its a good job its not me in the kremlin either.

    What we all desire for ukraine, is for them to go through a process like germany went through at the end of the war. A complete and utter destruction of their ideology and to make them pay for their crimes, to rub their faces in the dirt of their actions and force them to come to terms with what they and their government have done.

    Thats only possible however if there is a consensus amongst the major players, ie usa eu and russia, if russia tries to do that alone the ukrainians will reject it and see it as further suppression and aggression from the russians, their ideology wont die because there are other major players giving voice to 'their truth'. Russia can go in and kill everyone who screams 'slava ukraine' but that wont kill the idea, it will return.

    Ukraine needs to heal itself, nobody can do that for it. As ive said before though, i still think russias line is too soft on ukraine.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:08 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:
    whir wrote:
    Tак Точно wrote:06.06.15 Kiev. Thousands of people demand the resignation of Poroshenko and authorities

    Meh.

    Its all well and good that are are protesting against the government because of how shitty their lives have become, but i dont see a single word of complaint about that same government murdering their countrymen a few hundred miles away.

    They make me sick.


    Fits with an observation I read not long ago; that Kievians are more and more sick of their government, but continue to show little remorse for their government's actions in the Donbass or sympathy with the people there.
    Hatred of Russians overcomes all barriers apparently.

    Personally I don't care about their reasons, I care only that dissent is rising and about how soon the govenrment can be overthrown; so that the war can stop and the Donbass can be free.
    The Kievans and the rest of the Ukraine can keep their hatred and bile; at the end of the day they'll be the ones facing the fallout from the continued collapse of their own economy and even more political anarchy; their reasons and opinions are ultimately not important, the stage is already set.

    I know plenty of good Kievians BTW. I hope they'll have enough sense to leave the country; if they need my help I'll give it.

    In all my travels the friendliest people i met were in ukraine, they are (were) a wonderful people, it pains me to see how their society has become ill and normal decent people become so full of hatred. Dont forget these people were so full of hate long before russia actually did anything.

    Whilst I have no sympathy for those marching in kiev, I certainly feel happy that the dissent is rising, im very surprised that the numbers are so large already, and thats only going to rise. Its going to be interesting to see how they react one poroshenko inevitably uses force against them and the west turns the other cheek.

    How will they feel when they realise all that western support during maidan was nothing to do with helping them at all?

    Its going to be fascinating.




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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:14 am

    Rodinazombie wrote:

    If it were up to me, russia would have attacked ukraine after the odessa fire last year, or at the latest when they started shelling civilians in slavyansk, so, as you say, its a good job its not me in the kremlin either.

    What we all desire for ukraine, is for them to go through a process like germany went through at the end of the war. A complete and utter destruction of their ideology and to make them pay for their crimes, to rub their faces in the dirt of their actions and force them to come to terms with what they and their government have done.

    Thats only possible however if there is a consensus amongst the major players, ie usa eu and russia, if russia tries to do that alone the ukrainians will reject it and see it as further suppression and aggression from the russians, their ideology wont die because there are other major players giving voice to 'their truth'. Russia can go in and kill everyone who screams 'slava ukraine' but that wont kill the idea, it will return.

    Ukraine needs to heal itself, nobody can do that for it. As ive said before though, i still think russias line is too soft on ukraine.
    And what if this "healing" never happens? What if Ukraine remains as a hostile country for Russia for decades, even centuries?

    Too many of you talk about the future collapse of fascist ideology in Ukraine as a certainty. For me it is a real possibility that this collapse will never happen. Even if the economy collapses the country could still be held together, especially with some financial help from the West.

    The only certain way for this fascist ideology to collapse is that the majority of the Ukrainians rise against it (violently if needed). However, there are several problems with this scenario:
    1. The majority of the Ukrainians are now anti-Russian. Even if they protest against the regime it would be for economical reasons, not because of the war or the anti-Russian nature of the regime.
    2. Even if the current regime would fall, it would probably not be replaced with a Russian-friendly government but with another fascist regime.
    3. Fragmentation of Ukraine will not be allowed in any circumstances. People could be allowed to protest against economic realities in places like Kharkov and Odessa, but if they start to protest against the war or for the secessionist movement they will simply be imprisoned or killed.
    4. The Kiev regime will hold the monopoly of violence for itself and the right-wing fascist groups like the Right Sector. Any pro-Russian or anti-war movement will be denied access to any weapons (in fact such groups or movements will be destroyed in any means possible).
    5. Since an armed rebellion is the only way to change the political course of Ukraine this change can only happen if 1. there are enough such people in Ukraine who are able to organize and 2. there is someone (Russia, NAF) who can supply them with weapons from outside. In the current conditions I don't see this as a possibility, since Russia will not do it and Novorossiyans are in a survival mode trying to defend their small slice of territory.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:22 am

    BKP wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:People should take a loot at history.. of US undercover wars and interventionism..
    against Soviets..

    In the next report.. shows How in Public American Government was demanding the soviets
    to Leave Afganistan.. while at the same time undercovertly ,they were doing sabotage against
    soviets to keep them in Afganistan..

    And also explain how before the soviets Invaded Afganistan..
    Americans had a plan to provoke Soviets Invading it..

    In other words the US government provoked Soviets ,into a war with afganistan and later
    to maintan them there Inside afganistan..and not leave..through Attacks on Soviet Union territory by muslins..

    So the invasion helps american propaganda and narrative to demonize Russia.. while keeping them inside Afganistan helps to drain their economy.. and this is exactly what they are now trying to do in Ukraine.. Soviets Invaded Afganistan in response of US undercover attacks from there to soviet territories.

    Said in other words.. The american government was in front of Cameras and media
    condemning Russia invasion.. but behind the cameras they were celebrating and cheering
    Russia invasion and using their money to keep Soviets pinned down in Afganistan ,to drain their economy.

    http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20150602/1022855357.html

    And this is exactly what they are doing in Ukraine.. to create a new attrition war ,with NATO
    fighting RUssia to the last ukrainian and arming them. But they really miscalculated and it did not happened. Putin actually Reversed the roles.. and is now Americans and Europe the ones paying the bigger price for maintaining Ukraine economy while they continue a war..

    US and Kiev (at orders of americans).. have been intentionally provoking Russia to invade Ukraine. . Because this will help US and anglozionist allies in their demonization propaganda
    of RUssia.. with the help of **fabricated massacres and warcrimes reports** against Ukrainians that will be blamed on Russia. exactly as the Malasyan plane was blamed on Putin.. but failed to convince for the reason of Russia open ,generous and almost friendly Aptitude towards Ukraine..
    So this is why people believed Putin sold the rebels.. but is diplomacy tactics to protect Russia from allowing United States to take full advantage of the ukrainian conflict . to demonize Russia.


    So in that report you will see how this Old tactics of creating a trap for Russia ,are being Re-Used again in Ukraine.. If Russia invade as Americans really hope to see..Russia will be pushed
    to continue invading beyond Donetsk and Lugansk.. easily by genocide of Ethnic Russians in other cities.. done by the CIANazis.. And this will also help in the propaganda of NATO media to demonize Russia. and create a united front in europe against "Russia agression".

    Fortunately Putin is more clever and have done things undercover.. and even signed a peace deal ,that essentially looks likes a major betray of the Rebels.. is a master piece Agreement that puts the Ball in Urkraine to do Reforms if they want to retake Donetsk and Lugansk. The Donetsk and Lugansk ministers knowing that Ukraine will NOT do reforms ..agree to run with the game. Very Happy

    Unfortunately is not perfect decision ,because Ukraine continues shelling and killing civilians..
    But if Putin is now forced to invade.. it will be more harder for Obama and its government to
    run its propaganda. Russia can simply use for a small time its airforce. Push the ukies 20 to 30km farther from rebels cities.

    When it comes to Tansmitia is more complicate Russia could be forced to invade to invade odessa but the good news is that it looks like Russia already was expecting that move..and
    had a plan. and that people in Odessa will receive Russia with open arms.

    For me the biggest problem is Ukraine Nuclear reactors.. Russia and the Rebels needs to stay away of it..as far from possible.. because any accident will be blamed on Russia and Rebels..
    and Kiev controlling 100% of the information in media that Ukrainians see is not going to help.

    This is why i think.. that even if Russia invade ,it will have to be temporary short time only to restore order and then leave as soon as possible..and demand kiev to start reforms. and not allow the Rebels to go far beyond their controlled zones.. Until Kiev collapse.. and or
    the entire country start a rebelion and Russia is welcome to interfere by most ukrainians.

    The conflict in Marinika i really think the Rebels only intention was to destroy the Ukies artillery and punish them and beat and later ordered to retreat to maintain the Minsk-2 agreement open.
    Is a city too close to Mariupol and from there they can be blamed of shelling civilians as before.



    Agree, especially with the part I bolded, and I've said as much before. IMO, Moscow's strategy is the correct one. It is the one that is most likely to lead to eventual (significant) de-nazification of Ukraine.

    I believe this because the ideological sickness that has now manifested its natural consequences in Ukraine first incubated for decades, at least. After enough Ukrainians have lived with those consequences for a sufficient length of time their attitudes will start to change at a fundamental level.

    This is unfortunate but necessary; if the Russians had just immediately moved in and imposed their own order, that natural process would not work its way through. Instead, much of the animosity could and would be shifted to those portrayed as "invaders" oppressing Ukrainian choice (again). Well, let them have their choice and live with it. Moscow seems to be betting this thesis will generate a real and lasting antithesis.

    The way I see it, the hard part of the strategy is that some of the people to whom we are most sympathetic are going to die in the meantime. However, it was sadly unavoidable that people were going to die regardless. It takes emotional discipline to never forget this fact and stick to the strategy. This is why I'm glad that Putin and his team are in charge as opposed to someone like, well, me, for instance. I'm too much of a hothead, and would likely have played right into the neocon trap that was set. I think what you posted identifies that trap very accurately.

    P.S., Thanks to those who finally +1'd me. I was starting to think I'd be stuck at "1" forever. cheers

    It is the correct strategy, but the main thing is not de-Nazificiation of the Ukraine (not our problem), but avoiding avoiding our own commitment into this war while the US/EU foot the bill, and avoiding becoming an 'invader' that the Ukrainian government can use to rally its people with (although it's still trying to do just that).

    Rodinazombie wrote:

    If it were up to me, russia would have attacked ukraine after the odessa fire last year, or at the latest when they started shelling civilians in slavyansk, so, as you say, its a good job its not me in the kremlin either.

    What we all desire for ukraine, is for them to go through a process like germany went through at the end of the war. A complete and utter destruction of their ideology and to make them pay for their crimes, to rub their faces in the dirt of their actions and force them to come to terms with what they and their government have done.

    Thats only possible however if there is a consensus amongst the major players, ie usa eu and russia, if russia tries to do that alone the ukrainians will reject it and see it as further suppression and aggression from the russians, their ideology wont die because there are other major players giving voice to 'their truth'. Russia can go in and kill everyone who screams 'slava ukraine' but that wont kill the idea, it will return.

    Ukraine needs to heal itself, nobody can do that for it. As ive said before though, i still think russias line is too soft on ukraine.

    Nope, nope, don't care.

    Don't care about the Ukraine's bloody illness or its Nazi problem or anything else. Their country, not mine.

    Why cure it? Just so the Ukraine can again become a burden to subsidize for Russia, with our funds feeding more nationalism in the shadows?
    Or perhaps it would care to restart the same game of trying to sit on 2 chairs at once; which will make it more than useless for any Russian interests.

    At this point there is nothing left in the Ukraine for Russia. There were/are industries, but they're older and rustier with each passing year; give them another 2-3 years and they will go extinct; meanwhile Russia has already started investment into its own capacities and ridding of all dependence will be completed in at most; 4-5 years time. Why should we go back to the Ukraine after that?
    The country is fraught only with problems, and sure-fire ways of losing money. It's like a Afghanistan in that sense
    I would much rather the West keep it, honestly, and let it be a burdon onto them.

    I don't think it will become a totally failed state, it does have some cohesion. But if banditry and so on becomes an issue on Russian borders; than it's always possible to just take over that wall that the Ukrs have been building, would serve the purpose fine; along with helicopter patrols, border guards, etc...

    The only thing I care about is stopping the war. Kharkov, Odessa, etc... can stay in the Ukraine - no-one's going to bail them out nor should they; consenquences of their own inaction.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 14 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Karl Haushofer Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:39 am

    Let me demonstrate a bit further.

    Let's assume that the Ukrainian economy collapses. Millions of people lose their jobs. There are even mini-famines in the poorest parts of the country. Ukrainian poor live as bad as Indian poor.

    People would be angry. They would protest against the horrible economic situation and bad living standards. There would be mass protests and demands for resignations of the government. Some of these protests could even turn violent (but personally I don't believe that the regime would fall because they - unlike Yanukovich - would use brutal violence against any such attempts).

    But what would Russia gain from this? Russia needs a change of a political course and a change of ideology in Ukraine. Would these upheavals and sufferings of regular Ukrainians do it? No. Would mass protests do it? No. They would not do it, because people would not be protesting for the change of policy or ideology, but for better living standards.

    For Russia to be able to change the political course and ideology of Ukraine without military intervention it would need years and years of soft-power work inside Ukraine with its NGO's who would be competent and allowed to work inside Ukraine. This is what the West did. They entered Ukraine with their NGO's right after the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. They did their work well. But Russia doesn't have any such NGO's and even if it had them they would not be allowed to enter Ukraine.

    I don't claim to be any smarter than Vladimir Putin is, but this is the way I see things. If Putin thinks that he can simply "wait it out" for Ukraine to collapse and Russia is able to "pick up the peaces" I think he is dead wrong.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 14 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Regular Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:58 am

    I think there is even more danger for Poro than it was for Yanuk. First of all, nationalist groups already tasted blood, they have access to weapons. Second - there is no Berkut to manage any bigger riots. Third, there is distrust of him among army. Good luck using them to disperse crowds.
    I think we will see more violence, but in unified Ukraine. Eventually that could lead to western part kf Ukraine being separatist too. They were actually first separatists who denounced Yanuks rule before Maidan went batshit crazy.
    How will this affect Russia, I don't know. It's up to Europe to glue Ukraine financily now.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 14 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Karl Haushofer Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:03 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    BKP wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:People should take a loot at history.. of US undercover wars and interventionism..
    against Soviets..

    In the next report.. shows How in Public American Government was demanding the soviets
    to Leave Afganistan.. while at the same time undercovertly ,they were doing sabotage against
    soviets to keep them in Afganistan..  

    And also explain how before the soviets Invaded Afganistan..
    Americans had a plan to provoke Soviets Invading it..

    In other words the US government provoked Soviets ,into a war with afganistan and later
    to maintan them there Inside afganistan..and not leave..through Attacks on Soviet Union territory by muslins..

    So the invasion helps american propaganda and narrative to demonize Russia.. while keeping them inside Afganistan helps to drain their economy.. and this is exactly what they are now trying to do in Ukraine..  Soviets Invaded Afganistan in response of US undercover attacks from there to soviet territories.

    Said in other words.. The american government was in front of Cameras and media
    condemning Russia invasion.. but behind the cameras they were celebrating and cheering
    Russia invasion and using their money to keep Soviets pinned down in Afganistan ,to drain their economy.

    http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20150602/1022855357.html

    And this is exactly what they are doing in Ukraine.. to create a new attrition war ,with NATO
    fighting RUssia to the last ukrainian and arming them. But they really miscalculated and it did not happened.  Putin actually Reversed the roles.. and is now Americans and Europe the ones paying the bigger price for maintaining Ukraine economy while they continue a war..  

    US and Kiev (at orders of americans).. have been intentionally provoking Russia to invade Ukraine. . Because this will help US and anglozionist allies in their demonization propaganda
    of RUssia.. with the help of **fabricated massacres and warcrimes reports**  against Ukrainians that will be blamed on Russia. exactly as the Malasyan plane was blamed on Putin.. but failed to convince for the reason of Russia open ,generous and almost friendly Aptitude towards Ukraine..
    So this is why people believed Putin sold the rebels.. but is diplomacy tactics to protect Russia from allowing United States to take full advantage of the ukrainian conflict . to demonize Russia.


    So in that report you will see how this Old tactics of creating a trap for Russia ,are being Re-Used again in Ukraine..  If Russia invade as Americans really hope to see..Russia will be pushed
    to continue invading beyond Donetsk and Lugansk.. easily by genocide of Ethnic Russians in other cities.. done by the CIANazis.. And this will also help in the propaganda of NATO media to demonize Russia. and create a united front in europe against "Russia agression".

    Fortunately Putin is more clever and have done things undercover.. and even signed a peace deal ,that essentially looks likes a major betray of the Rebels.. is a master piece Agreement that puts the Ball in Urkraine to do Reforms if they want to retake Donetsk and Lugansk.  The Donetsk and Lugansk ministers knowing that Ukraine will NOT do reforms ..agree to run with the game.  Very Happy

    Unfortunately is not perfect decision ,because Ukraine continues shelling and killing civilians..
    But if Putin is now forced to invade.. it will be more harder for Obama and its government to
    run its propaganda.  Russia can simply use for a small time its airforce. Push the ukies 20 to 30km farther from rebels cities.

    When it comes to Tansmitia is more complicate Russia could be forced to invade to invade odessa but the good news is that it looks like Russia already was expecting that move..and
    had a plan. and that people in Odessa will receive Russia with open arms.

    For me the biggest problem is Ukraine Nuclear reactors.. Russia and the Rebels needs to stay away of it..as far from possible.. because any accident will be blamed on Russia and Rebels..
    and Kiev controlling 100% of the information in media that Ukrainians see is not going to help.

    This is why i think.. that even if Russia invade ,it will have to be temporary short time only to restore order and then leave as soon as possible..and demand kiev to start reforms. and not allow the Rebels to go far beyond their controlled zones.. Until Kiev collapse.. and or
    the entire country start a rebelion and Russia is welcome to interfere by most ukrainians.

    The conflict in Marinika i really think the Rebels only intention was to destroy the Ukies artillery and punish them and beat and later ordered to retreat to maintain the Minsk-2 agreement open.
    Is a city too close to Mariupol and from there they can be blamed of shelling civilians as before.



    Agree, especially with the part I bolded, and I've said as much before. IMO, Moscow's strategy is the correct one. It is the one that is most likely to lead to eventual (significant) de-nazification of Ukraine.

    I believe this because the ideological sickness that has now manifested its natural consequences in Ukraine first incubated for decades, at least. After enough Ukrainians have lived with those consequences for a sufficient length of time their attitudes will start to change at a fundamental level.

    This is unfortunate but necessary; if the Russians had just immediately moved in and imposed their own order, that natural process would not work its way through. Instead, much of the animosity could and would be shifted to those portrayed as "invaders" oppressing Ukrainian choice (again). Well, let them have their choice and live with it. Moscow seems to be betting this thesis will generate a real and lasting antithesis.

    The way I see it, the hard part of the strategy is that some of the people to whom we are most sympathetic are going to die in the meantime. However, it was sadly unavoidable that people were going to die regardless. It takes emotional discipline to never forget this fact and stick to the strategy. This is why I'm glad that Putin and his team are in charge as opposed to someone like, well, me, for instance. I'm too much of a hothead, and would likely have played right into the neocon trap that was set. I think what you posted identifies that trap very accurately.

    P.S., Thanks to those who finally +1'd me. I was starting to think I'd be stuck at "1" forever. cheers

    It is the correct strategy, but the main thing is not de-Nazificiation of the Ukraine (not our problem), but avoiding avoiding our own commitment into this war while the US/EU foot the bill, and avoiding becoming an 'invader' that the Ukrainian government can use to rally its people with (although it's still trying to do just that).

    Rodinazombie wrote:

    If it were up to me, russia would have attacked ukraine after the odessa fire last year, or at the latest when they started shelling civilians in slavyansk, so, as you say, its a good job its not me in the kremlin either.

    What we all desire for ukraine, is for them to go through a process like germany went through at the end of the war. A complete and utter destruction of their ideology and to make them pay for their crimes, to rub their faces in the dirt of their actions and force them to come to terms with what they and their government have done.

    Thats only possible however if there is a consensus amongst the major players, ie usa eu and russia, if russia tries to do that alone the ukrainians will reject it and see it as further suppression and aggression from the russians, their ideology wont die because there are other major players giving voice to 'their truth'. Russia can go in and kill everyone who screams 'slava ukraine' but that wont kill the idea, it will return.

    Ukraine needs to heal itself, nobody can do that for it. As ive said before though, i still think russias line is too soft on ukraine.

    Nope, nope, don't care.

    Don't care about the Ukraine's bloody illness or its Nazi problem or anything else. Their country, not mine.

    Why cure it? Just so the Ukraine can again become a burden to subsidize for Russia, with our funds feeding more nationalism in the shadows?
    Or perhaps it would care to restart the same game of trying to sit on 2 chairs at once; which will make it more than useless for any Russian interests.

    At this point there is nothing left in the Ukraine for Russia. There were/are industries, but they're older and rustier with each passing year; give them another 2-3 years and they will go extinct; meanwhile Russia has already started investment into its own capacities and ridding of all dependence will be completed in at most; 4-5 years time. Why should we go back to the Ukraine after that?
    The country is fraught only with problems, and sure-fire ways of losing money. It's like a Afghanistan in that sense
    I would much rather the West keep it, honestly, and let it be a burdon onto them.

    I don't think it will become a totally failed state, it does have some cohesion. But if banditry and so on becomes an issue on Russian borders; than it's always possible to just take over that wall that the Ukrs have been building, would serve the purpose fine; along with helicopter patrols, border guards, etc...

    The only thing I care about is stopping the war. Kharkov, Odessa, etc... can stay in the Ukraine - no-one's going to bail them out nor should they; consenquences of their own inaction.

    I mostly agree with this but there is one thing you did not mention, possible NATO military bases in Ukraine. Can Russia afford NATO presence in Kharkov or even Donetsk (if Novorossiya falls)?
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 14 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  flamming_python Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:21 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    BKP wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:People should take a loot at history.. of US undercover wars and interventionism..
    against Soviets..

    In the next report.. shows How in Public American Government was demanding the soviets
    to Leave Afganistan.. while at the same time undercovertly ,they were doing sabotage against
    soviets to keep them in Afganistan..  

    And also explain how before the soviets Invaded Afganistan..
    Americans had a plan to provoke Soviets Invading it..

    In other words the US government provoked Soviets ,into a war with afganistan and later
    to maintan them there Inside afganistan..and not leave..through Attacks on Soviet Union territory by muslins..

    So the invasion helps american propaganda and narrative to demonize Russia.. while keeping them inside Afganistan helps to drain their economy.. and this is exactly what they are now trying to do in Ukraine..  Soviets Invaded Afganistan in response of US undercover attacks from there to soviet territories.

    Said in other words.. The american government was in front of Cameras and media
    condemning Russia invasion.. but behind the cameras they were celebrating and cheering
    Russia invasion and using their money to keep Soviets pinned down in Afganistan ,to drain their economy.

    http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20150602/1022855357.html

    And this is exactly what they are doing in Ukraine.. to create a new attrition war ,with NATO
    fighting RUssia to the last ukrainian and arming them. But they really miscalculated and it did not happened.  Putin actually Reversed the roles.. and is now Americans and Europe the ones paying the bigger price for maintaining Ukraine economy while they continue a war..  

    US and Kiev (at orders of americans).. have been intentionally provoking Russia to invade Ukraine. . Because this will help US and anglozionist allies in their demonization propaganda
    of RUssia.. with the help of **fabricated massacres and warcrimes reports**  against Ukrainians that will be blamed on Russia. exactly as the Malasyan plane was blamed on Putin.. but failed to convince for the reason of Russia open ,generous and almost friendly Aptitude towards Ukraine..
    So this is why people believed Putin sold the rebels.. but is diplomacy tactics to protect Russia from allowing United States to take full advantage of the ukrainian conflict . to demonize Russia.


    So in that report you will see how this Old tactics of creating a trap for Russia ,are being Re-Used again in Ukraine..  If Russia invade as Americans really hope to see..Russia will be pushed
    to continue invading beyond Donetsk and Lugansk.. easily by genocide of Ethnic Russians in other cities.. done by the CIANazis.. And this will also help in the propaganda of NATO media to demonize Russia. and create a united front in europe against "Russia agression".

    Fortunately Putin is more clever and have done things undercover.. and even signed a peace deal ,that essentially looks likes a major betray of the Rebels.. is a master piece Agreement that puts the Ball in Urkraine to do Reforms if they want to retake Donetsk and Lugansk.  The Donetsk and Lugansk ministers knowing that Ukraine will NOT do reforms ..agree to run with the game.  Very Happy

    Unfortunately is not perfect decision ,because Ukraine continues shelling and killing civilians..
    But if Putin is now forced to invade.. it will be more harder for Obama and its government to
    run its propaganda.  Russia can simply use for a small time its airforce. Push the ukies 20 to 30km farther from rebels cities.

    When it comes to Tansmitia is more complicate Russia could be forced to invade to invade odessa but the good news is that it looks like Russia already was expecting that move..and
    had a plan. and that people in Odessa will receive Russia with open arms.

    For me the biggest problem is Ukraine Nuclear reactors.. Russia and the Rebels needs to stay away of it..as far from possible.. because any accident will be blamed on Russia and Rebels..
    and Kiev controlling 100% of the information in media that Ukrainians see is not going to help.

    This is why i think.. that even if Russia invade ,it will have to be temporary short time only to restore order and then leave as soon as possible..and demand kiev to start reforms. and not allow the Rebels to go far beyond their controlled zones.. Until Kiev collapse.. and or
    the entire country start a rebelion and Russia is welcome to interfere by most ukrainians.

    The conflict in Marinika i really think the Rebels only intention was to destroy the Ukies artillery and punish them and beat and later ordered to retreat to maintain the Minsk-2 agreement open.
    Is a city too close to Mariupol and from there they can be blamed of shelling civilians as before.



    Agree, especially with the part I bolded, and I've said as much before. IMO, Moscow's strategy is the correct one. It is the one that is most likely to lead to eventual (significant) de-nazification of Ukraine.

    I believe this because the ideological sickness that has now manifested its natural consequences in Ukraine first incubated for decades, at least. After enough Ukrainians have lived with those consequences for a sufficient length of time their attitudes will start to change at a fundamental level.

    This is unfortunate but necessary; if the Russians had just immediately moved in and imposed their own order, that natural process would not work its way through. Instead, much of the animosity could and would be shifted to those portrayed as "invaders" oppressing Ukrainian choice (again). Well, let them have their choice and live with it. Moscow seems to be betting this thesis will generate a real and lasting antithesis.

    The way I see it, the hard part of the strategy is that some of the people to whom we are most sympathetic are going to die in the meantime. However, it was sadly unavoidable that people were going to die regardless. It takes emotional discipline to never forget this fact and stick to the strategy. This is why I'm glad that Putin and his team are in charge as opposed to someone like, well, me, for instance. I'm too much of a hothead, and would likely have played right into the neocon trap that was set. I think what you posted identifies that trap very accurately.

    P.S., Thanks to those who finally +1'd me. I was starting to think I'd be stuck at "1" forever. cheers

    It is the correct strategy, but the main thing is not de-Nazificiation of the Ukraine (not our problem), but avoiding avoiding our own commitment into this war while the US/EU foot the bill, and avoiding becoming an 'invader' that the Ukrainian government can use to rally its people with (although it's still trying to do just that).

    Rodinazombie wrote:

    If it were up to me, russia would have attacked ukraine after the odessa fire last year, or at the latest when they started shelling civilians in slavyansk, so, as you say, its a good job its not me in the kremlin either.

    What we all desire for ukraine, is for them to go through a process like germany went through at the end of the war. A complete and utter destruction of their ideology and to make them pay for their crimes, to rub their faces in the dirt of their actions and force them to come to terms with what they and their government have done.

    Thats only possible however if there is a consensus amongst the major players, ie usa eu and russia, if russia tries to do that alone the ukrainians will reject it and see it as further suppression and aggression from the russians, their ideology wont die because there are other major players giving voice to 'their truth'. Russia can go in and kill everyone who screams 'slava ukraine' but that wont kill the idea, it will return.

    Ukraine needs to heal itself, nobody can do that for it. As ive said before though, i still think russias line is too soft on ukraine.

    Nope, nope, don't care.

    Don't care about the Ukraine's bloody illness or its Nazi problem or anything else. Their country, not mine.

    Why cure it? Just so the Ukraine can again become a burden to subsidize for Russia, with our funds feeding more nationalism in the shadows?
    Or perhaps it would care to restart the same game of trying to sit on 2 chairs at once; which will make it more than useless for any Russian interests.

    At this point there is nothing left in the Ukraine for Russia. There were/are industries, but they're older and rustier with each passing year; give them another 2-3 years and they will go extinct; meanwhile Russia has already started investment into its own capacities and ridding of all dependence will be completed in at most; 4-5 years time. Why should we go back to the Ukraine after that?
    The country is fraught only with problems, and sure-fire ways of losing money. It's like a Afghanistan in that sense
    I would much rather the West keep it, honestly, and let it be a burdon onto them.

    I don't think it will become a totally failed state, it does have some cohesion. But if banditry and so on becomes an issue on Russian borders; than it's always possible to just take over that wall that the Ukrs have been building, would serve the purpose fine; along with helicopter patrols, border guards, etc...

    The only thing I care about is stopping the war. Kharkov, Odessa, etc... can stay in the Ukraine - no-one's going to bail them out nor should they; consenquences of their own inaction.

    I mostly agree with this but there is one thing you did not mention, possible NATO military bases in Ukraine. Can Russia afford NATO presence in Kharkov or even Donetsk (if Novorossiya falls)?

    First of all - Novorussia will not fall; Russia has made that quite clear.

    Secondly, the bigger question you should be asking - can NATO afford a presense in Kharkov (and so on)?
    Like I said, the country is like Afghanistan. They will have to deal with increasing instability in the Ukraine, continuing to have to prop it up with their own funds (albeit they will probably manage to rob enough assets and natural resources to make it worthwhile), an increasingly desperate population and an increasingly hostile one in Eastern Ukraine, that certainly won't welcome NATO bases; which may eventually provide the impetus for the development of a proper partisan movement, with attacks on NATO soldiers and so on.

    The US and pals would risk embroiling themselves in a low-intensity war; and if Russia needs to - it can always turn up the flames.

    No, it is totally not worth it for NATO. Not in Eastern Ukraine. Probably not even in Central Ukraine, which will also grow to resent their would-be-but-not-really-benefactors after a year or two of poverty, political chaos and general misery; and may chose to take it out on NATO personnel seeing as how Russia is too far away.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 14 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  flamming_python Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:30 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Let me demonstrate a bit further.

    Let's assume that the Ukrainian economy collapses. Millions of people lose their jobs. There are even mini-famines in the poorest parts of the country. Ukrainian poor live as bad as Indian poor.

    People would be angry. They would protest against the horrible economic situation and bad living standards. There would be mass protests and demands for resignations of the government. Some of these protests could even turn violent (but personally I don't believe that the regime would fall because they - unlike Yanukovich - would use brutal violence against any such attempts).

    But what would Russia gain from this? Russia needs a change of a political course and a change of ideology in Ukraine. Would these upheavals and sufferings of regular Ukrainians do it? No. Would mass protests do it? No. They would not do it, because people would not be protesting for the change of policy or ideology, but for better living standards.

    Mass-unpopularity of the government, economic poverty, etc... and ideological change frequently go hand in hand.
    When the government completely discredits itself before its people and proves incapable of running the country; its ideology tends to be discredited along with it.

    There were no Western NGOs in the 80s USSR, yet that didn't prevent the state and its ideology along with it from collapsing in disgrace from the discontent of its own people, after at least 5 years of rising internal conflicts and a collapsing economy.

    In the Ukraine this hasn't happened yet and won't happen for some years (not that I care, mind you), you're right that the coming protests will probably just lead to more nationalist hard-liners.
    But in the long run it will happen, Ukrainian nationalism is capable of nothing good for the country, it's having its run now, very unsuccessfully and will be even more unsuccessful as time passes by, and eventually everyone will just have to stare the facts in the face and decide how to move on - and they will.
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    Post  Neutrality Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:49 pm

    The solution to destroying the current Ukrainian ideology is a hard and simple one at the same time. Hard because it won't be easy to overthrow the current regime but it will be simple to remove that same ideology after the first happens. Let me explain it.

    Who nurtured the current neo-fascist ideology? The right wing groups and today's government. Poroshenko hasn't done anything to crack down on these guys so in my books he's supporting their ideology. When Poroshenko and his government are successfully overthrown, I put it in bold on purpose, then the removal/destruction of today's ideology will go hand in hand. By successfully I mean that Poroshenko must be brought to justice after he's overthrown. Something like the Nuremberg Trials. Fueling internal fascism, massively brainwashing and misleading of the Ukrainian population, prolonging a civil war without legal basis and last but not least, allowing foreigners to rule the country. Moscow should put this trial into a global spotlight. The entire ideology will die with its creators just like nazism died with its leaders.

    Alot of effort will be needed not to allow Poroshenko and his family to flee the country. It's not impossible though. Look at what happened to Mursi in Egypt. Led the coup, "democratically" elected and removed by his own army and put to trial. This is what's in store for Poroshenko. Let's all cross our fingers and hope it happens for the benefit of Ukraine's future.
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    Post  whir Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:50 pm

    flamming_python wrote:There were no Western NGOs in the 80s USSR, yet that didn't prevent the state and its ideology along with it from collapsing in disgrace from the discontent of its own people, after at least 5 years of rising internal conflicts and a collapsing economy.
    But there was something called radio that used to spread and foster all kinds of beautiful ideas like "you could have a much bigger salary with unemployment" or the mythical Marshal Plan 2.0.
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    Post  whir Sun Jun 07, 2015 1:18 pm

    Последние Новости Новороссий wrote:Marinka Adjustment 2015
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Sun Jun 07, 2015 2:12 pm

    whir wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:There were no Western NGOs in the 80s USSR, yet that didn't prevent the state and its ideology along with it from collapsing in disgrace from the discontent of its own people, after at least 5 years of rising internal conflicts and a collapsing economy.
    But there was something called radio that used to spread and foster all kinds of beautiful ideas like "you could have a much bigger salary with unemployment" or the mythical Marshal Plan 2.0.

    Western propaganda would not have been convincing if the system of the USSR had worked better or at least had had better counter-propaganda.
    Unfortunately, the Soviet Union was so focused on being a global superpower that it lost at home.
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    Post  calripson Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:46 pm

    Maybe there were no NGO's but I bet there were plenty of Swiss bank accounts.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:56 pm

    This isn't based on anything except my belief that God is the one who causes nations to rise and fall. If I look at USA track record, my country has been involved in one failure after another, since Viet Nam. If I look at Russia's track record, it has prospered, & not had one failure after another.. So, for no other reason than that, I really think Ukraine will not be a "success" for the USA. Just my humble opinion..
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    Post  Regular Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:00 pm

    Well Russia had plenty of failures as most of big countries/empires. US never had nothing close to fall like Russia experienced. Remember fall of Tsarism and fall of Communism. How Russia remained one country is still a mystery to me.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:21 pm

    Failure does not equal to disaster. Britain,Russia, France, Japan, China, Germany, etc all suffered failures at some point. Bigger issue is whether or not wisdom is acquired from one.

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