The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

Flagship Victory wrote:The problem right now is that the EU holds all the cards. The EU does not need to buy gas from Russia because it has alternative energy sources like nuclear, wind. Russia needs to keep selling gas to the EU because gas sale is Russia's biggest income and Putin's biggest income. If NAF does break Minsk and goes on the offensive to take a town like Marinka, then the EU will stop buying gas from Russia. This is why, as long as Putin is president, NAF will not be allowed to go on the offensive.

Therein lies the problem.

The people of Donbas have two choices. One, they can stay there and take the shelling and no one will come to their help. Or, two, they can pack up and move to Russia and start a new life.

PapaDragon wrote:^^^ Love the black uniforms those cops are rockin' . They got some awesome Hugo Boss vibe right there...

Flagship Victory wrote:The problem right now is that the EU holds all the cards. The EU does not need to buy gas from Russia because it has alternative energy sources like nuclear, wind. Russia needs to keep selling gas to the EU because gas sale is Russia's biggest income and Putin's biggest income. If NAF does break Minsk and goes on the offensive to take a town like Marinka, then the EU will stop buying gas from Russia. This is why, as long as Putin is president, NAF will not be allowed to go on the offensive.

Therein lies the problem.

The people of Donbas have two choices. One, they can stay there and take the shelling and no one will come to their help. Or, two, they can pack up and move to Russia and start a new life.

TheMedvedova wrote:Militia at the forefront of the DNR - Ukraine

whir wrote:

Graham Phillips wrote:When Graham Met Texas

BKP wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:^^^ Love the black uniforms those cops are rockin' . They got some awesome Hugo Boss vibe right there...

Hugo Boss indeed, sieg heil! Er, I mean... sweet, homie!

chinggis wrote:What Pushilin say "War within hour" is hard word Khepesh, very hard word. I can not understand what happen to you today, why you have so dark thoughts today? What I see, is: "War within hour" is, in my interpretation, everything is ready and all what is waiting is some minor spark which will ignite a black powder. What will be soon, when you have so many retarded monkeys who run around with matches, you can not wait to long that powder keg will catch spark and explode. DNR and LNR can not now make any move, they are not finish with training troops with new equipment and learning new tactics. Ukraine, is in the same position too. DNR and LNR learn something from experience before some weeks, when they catch Marinka and pull back.
If Ukraine army can not hold a ground around a small city and they have plenty of time to make and finish on time ground works and defensive position, and we are speaking about small scale attack without big guns in supporting assault, then they are on the road to failure. It is hard to predict when, where and how will be new attack and what will be it is goal. To me, goal will be to came on administrative borders of DNR and LNR, with some big and small encirclements of Ukraine troops. It will cost Ukraine some big money, but it will not be final blow, war will be lasting some more time.
And believe me, I know very well how is situation in Donbas, how you counting incoming shells and jumping from the ground when they explode around your shelter. It is hard for civilians, but terror is not producing same effect in different country's . Slavic peoples have higher threshold then some other groups. And I fear that to much.

auslander wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:I do not agree with papa that Russia is not a super power. Sure the US may have a more powerful navy, but Russia's land forces sure is a whole lot more powerful. The point is, Russia is acting too soft as the world's biggest country. Russia should at least, AT LEAST, accept Donbas request and send peacekeepers to Donbas to stop the ethnic cleansing. I think even a weak country like Cambodia would have done that if ethnic Cambodians are massacred in a neighboring country.

To the best of my knowledge DNR and LNR have not asked for 'peace keepers', it is the ukes who want them. Novorossiya has stated more than once that no mention of peace keepers was in the Minsk agreements and the ukes want them only on the RF-Novorossiya border to give the ukes defacto control of the borders. No one from either side has ever mentioned 'peace keepers' on or around the areas of conflict.

If you have informations to refute this then please post links to same.

auslander wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:The problem right now is that the EU holds all the cards. The EU does not need to buy gas from Russia because it has alternative energy sources like nuclear, wind. Russia needs to keep selling gas to the EU because gas sale is Russia's biggest income and Putin's biggest income. If NAF does break Minsk and goes on the offensive to take a town like Marinka, then the EU will stop buying gas from Russia. This is why, as long as Putin is president, NAF will not be allowed to go on the offensive.

Therein lies the problem.

The people of Donbas have two choices. One, they can stay there and take the shelling and no one will come to their help. Or, two, they can pack up and move to Russia and start a new life.

Either you are a 14 year old with no real knowledge of EU and RF economics and politics or you are a very clever lad. I opt for 'clever lad', you and your clones. EU has to have RF gas, period, EU has no other viable alternative. If NAF goes on the offensive they will take a bit more than Marinka. That being said, you have now won the coveted Sophia Ignore Trophy. Who is Sophia? Look at my avatar. She reads people instantly and she has looked and found you lacking.

2SPOOKY4U wrote:

BKP wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:^^^ Love the black uniforms those cops are rockin' . They got some awesome Hugo Boss vibe right there...

Hugo Boss indeed, sieg heil! Er, I mean... sweet, homie!

Not going to lie, ze Germans had the best uniform and aesthetic, symbols were downright fearsome as well.


Very glad to see protests against Saakashvili, I wonder if Russia could write off a small portion of Ukraine's debt in exchange for him getting a nice place in Kamchatka.

Would be funny to see his face stepping off the plane and Putin/Medvedev greeting him.

Flagship Victory wrote:The EU does not need Russian gas. If you look at what the EU has been doing over the past decade or so, you would know the EU has pretty much completely transitioned away from gas. The EU itself is very warm because of the Gulf Stream. Berlin is routinely at least 6 C throughout the winter. No need for gas. Denmark already completely uses wind for energy. Well over half of Germany's energy is now provided by wind. Britain, France hardly imports any gas from Russia. Once Germany transitions to wind, then the EU will stop buying gas from Russia. There would be no need.

Khepesh wrote:Pushilin means that the general situation is such that the countdown to war is now very short, for instance no endless worthless debates in UN etc. In terms of readiness of the opposing armies to fight, then effectively both are ready and all that stops war is fear of moving first and showing hand. Tho primarily it is the lack of permission, and this is for both sides. It is also necessary for ukrops to move first, we all know this, they know this, but maybe are not sufficiently clever to avoid a trap, to not even realise it is a trap before it is too late. On the training, once the recruit has learned what he must do, drive tank, lay artillery piece, operate radio, etc etc, and then the unit training takes place, company then battalion level, there is a limit to what can be acheived and there is no further reason not to fight, if you have not been attacked first. It is not like with spetsnaz having to keep fully on top of game with very specialist skills, and the best training for war is war and both sides have more than sufficient men already blooded. I would say that both sides are better trained for war at this moment than any army at begining of either world war. btw, was commenting as a raccoon on this affair since September 2013, before even maidan, and on Crimea and Novorossiya being Russian for a long time before that. Some of my posts are gloomy because I know a shit situation when I see it and will not bury head in the sand of the instruction manual Surkov or the fantasies of Kurginyan.

whir wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:The EU does not need Russian gas. If you look at what the EU has been doing over the past decade or so, you would know the EU has pretty much completely transitioned away from gas. The EU itself is very warm because of the Gulf Stream. Berlin is routinely at least 6 C throughout the winter. No need for gas. Denmark already completely uses wind for energy. Well over half of Germany's energy is now provided by wind. Britain, France hardly imports any gas from Russia. Once Germany transitions to wind, then the EU will stop buying gas from Russia. There would be no need.

You keep talking about gas but the real dependency comes mainly from Russian oil.

Flagship Victory wrote:

whir wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:The EU does not need Russian gas. If you look at what the EU has been doing over the past decade or so, you would know the EU has pretty much completely transitioned away from gas. The EU itself is very warm because of the Gulf Stream. Berlin is routinely at least 6 C throughout the winter. No need for gas. Denmark already completely uses wind for energy. Well over half of Germany's energy is now provided by wind. Britain, France hardly imports any gas from Russia. Once Germany transitions to wind, then the EU will stop buying gas from Russia. There would be no need.

You keep talking about gas but the real dependency comes mainly from Russian oil.

Maybe, but the EU has very strict carbon regulations and the EU is very fast transitioning away from oil, gas. The EU is building wind farms like crazy, on land, in the sea. Electric cars. The point is, the day is coming soon when the EU no longer buys any carbon based fuels from Russia.

Already, it is the EU who is in the driver's seat, taking initiatives. Russia cannot even effectively react. It is the EU which is slapping sanctions on Russia, ordering Maidan to shell Donbas. Russia is able to counter by putting a food import ban on the EU, which worked to a certain degree by scaring the EU into stop slapping one sanction after another on Russia with impunity. But, Russia cannot go on the initiative because Russia depends too much on selling gas and oil to the EU while the EU is willing to stop importing fuels from Russia, thus the EU gets its way of shelling Donbas but Russia cannot do anything to help Donbas or counter EU. Why? Because the EU is building wind farms absolutely like crazy. Had Putin see those wind farms popping up in Germany, he would have been able to put Russia in a more advantageous position now. He did not see.

Flagship Victory wrote:
Now comes the interesting part. When the pipeling to China is completed by 2020 or so, Russia will no longer need to sell gas to the EU and transition to China.

I have a feeling we haven't seen the last about Crimea. The west won't stop until Crimea is back in Maidan Ukraine. So we can also expect a sudden full scale attack on Crimea by US trained and armed Ukrainian troops. This is going to get a whole lot uglier before it gets any better.

Another interesting thing to note is that the US underestimated the resolve of Donbas resistance. The US expected Donbas would roll over and submit. This has not happened. So the US's plan also has not worked after putting Maidan into place.

OminousSpudd wrote:Windfarms and most of these renewable energy schemes are a joke. http://joannenova.com.au/2015/06/forget-momentum-for-renewables-five-of-the-g7-nations-increased-their-coal-use/

Simply, the power output compared to conventional methods is not even close, while outlay costs are hideously more.

As for stationing Russian peacekeepers in Ukraine. You say they wouldn't dare attack them. How do you know this? Even the OSCE have come under fire multiple times. Kiev just needs a reason to motivate its zombified population into total war with its Eastern half, clear undeniable Russian involvement would be that motivation and NATO would happily oblige them with the weapons required. No, Russia is not going to put troops on the ground in Ukraine, not officially. You think NATO hasn't moved in on Ukraine because they're all bluster? No, they haven't moved in because their propaganda isn't strong enough to cover a move like that without backlash on the homefront. All they need is for Russia to make one "wrong" move and it's game on. This isn't even mentioning Russia's pivot to Asia where it is trying to present the best face possible (and succeeding on a monumental scale), something they don't want to throw away by being seen as breaching another country's supposed sovereignty.

Here is what you don't realise Flagship: Russia is winning the global war and time is on their side in every respect. People are dying in the Donbas, yes, Russia could immediately stop the bloodshed with a no-holds-barred onslaught all the way to Kiev yes, but it would be incredibly temporary, with the end result being loss of life on a scale not seen since World War II (aka WW3 if you couldn't tell). Why win a battle and lose the war?
You may regard loss of life in Eastern Ukraine at the hands of the junta and Russia's "inaction" (or Putin's, since you seem to blame everything on him like a bloody Western propaganda piece) as immoral, (even though they send innumerable tonnes of aid and have opened their borders to the people of the LPR/DPR) but the reality is that when the Empire falls, regional conflicts such as this will be moot. You can call Russia cynical and callous all you like, but in reality Russia is fighting a war on a far grander scale than just Ukraine, with many more lives at stake.