The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

JohninMK wrote:

auslander wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Dforce wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Dforce wrote:

auslander wrote:You can do almost anything you want with the people as long as you keep them well fed and warm in winter. One of the two is now suspect. This winter is going to be interesting for the ukes. Hunger and cold breeds revolution.

I seem to recall the exact same line from some before last winter, but nothing happened.

But that is not what I was curious about, I want to talk about Sergey Nikolayevich Petrovsky. What is your take on "khmury", how involved was he in the uprising in the East? What are his political motives? What is his relations to Strelkov?

Well that isn't exactly fair to say when there were many numerous protests in Kiev throughout winter. Sure none of them gained any momentum but they did happen even if largely ignored by media.

As for the upcoming winter, the situation in Ukraine hasn't gotten any better. If you look at some Cowboy Daughter's posts, bread lines, which were last prevalent around the 90's, are increasing fast even outside the ATO zone.

Quite true, but the situation is even worse in the Donbass republics, would you not agree? Is the risk of uprisings even greater there, or is it mostly a case of wishful thinking from either side?

People in Donbass understand why their situation is bad, they are getting bombarded with impunity and Kiev has setup up a blockade. People on the other side of the conflict zone, that is the rest of Ukraine, are seeing their standard(s) of living fade away and they are not living in a conflict zone. Do the math and find out who's going to riot sooner.

I see no indication that there will be any revolt in Novorossiya against their government. The people are not happy about the continuous and ongoing daily and nightly bombardments but we get the feeling the citizens of Novorossiya will persevere. Too much of their blood has been spilled, to many of their relatives and friends have died under the Uke guns, too many factories, businesses, infrastructure and homes have been destroyed for anyone to give up now.

This winter should be different to last on the food and heat front, on both prices and supply, if only as it is possible that there will be no fighting (it might have happened) and both sides will have had more experience of the new, reduced state of Ukraine.

The biggest impact in the west will be prices of both which are now higher and by winter will be higher still, especially on power as part of the IMF conditions, whilst wages are frozen. With no IMF pressure on east prices and more integration with Russia there should be less price pressure. I suspect that, in the absence of proper fighting, a significant section of the east's manpower and resources is currently going into agriculture. Has anyone heard of soldiers doing farming?

Supply on both sides will be tight, we don't know what will happen with gas except that both sides have dramatically reduced their consumption, on food there should be enough, especially on local products but imports will be an issue.

What we don't know is what the effect of increased levels of corruption in the supply chains will have along with reduced expectations by the people.

As to who is going to riot sooner that is easy and nothing to do with maths. It is all down to strength in belief in one's cause. Now, as a simple indication of that, which side has the mainly volunteer army drawn from a smaller population?

I think many children and (pregnant) women, pensioners and people with a handicap will spend their time in safety (in Russia most likely). Ofcourse there will always will be those who refuse to abandon their homes and that only shows the will of these people to fight and survive. Leningrad survived in the most severe conditions with the bare minimum. I'm sure Donbass will hold out with "better" odds.

"Neutrality
I think many children and (pregnant) women, pensioners and people with a handicap will spend their time in safety (in Russia most likely). Ofcourse there will always will be those who refuse to abandon their homes and that only shows the will of these people to fight and survive. Leningrad survived in the most severe conditions with the bare minimum. I'm sure Donbass will hold out with "better" odds."

I think you are correct. Much of Novorossiya gets their gas from Rostov now and if I'm not mistaken electric is being or has been changed over also, at least for some areas. The problem this winter will be the same as last winter if the orcs are still in position, they will shoot for the boiler houses, the electric and water substations and the main water service and heating hot water feed pipes. Some of the people will winter in Russia, most will persevere. They've been through a very tough year so far and I don't see them giving up, if anything with each passing day they are more resistant to Kiev and more men are coming to the colors.

Neutrality wrote:
Already making friends I see. May I remind you that this is not MP.net? We're actually civil people here and we don't throw insults like that. Clever tongue-in-cheek by the way, truly shows your mental age.

Did you read the post I commented? What would you define it as?

And what do you mean by tongue-in-cheek; Petrovsky called himself "Plokhoy Soldat" on that forum, did he not? If that offends you I can use “khmury” as he used as profile pic and in Chechyna if that is better? Here is that one:

izvestia.ru/news/274721 (I am not allowed to post links yet)

Neutrality wrote:

People in Donbass understand why their situation is bad, they are getting bombarded with impunity and Kiev has setup up a blockade. People on the other side of the conflict zone, that is the rest of Ukraine, are seeing their standard(s) of living fade away and they are not living in a conflict zone. Do the math and find out who's going to riot sooner.

Kiev are using the conflict in the east as a cover story for the economic woes they created in the rest of Ukraine. As you say, many Ukrainians will eventually riot because the propaganda stories from Kiev are generally so absurd that they are very easy to disprove. That's also why Kiev have to resort to extreme censorship, and revisionism,  else their facade would collapse in no time if they didn't continuously paint over the truth.

Dforce wrote:

Neutrality wrote:
Already making friends I see. May I remind you that this is not MP.net? We're actually civil people here and we don't throw insults like that. Clever tongue-in-cheek by the way, truly shows your mental age.

Did you read the post I commented? What would you define it as?

And what do you mean by tongue-in-cheek; Petrovsky called himself "Plokhoy Soldat" on that forum, did he not? If that offends you I can use “khmury” as he used as profile pic and in Chechyna if that is better? Here is that one:

izvestia.ru/news/274721 (I am not allowed to post links yet)

I'm talking about your way of speaking by raising questions which are apparently humurous to you only . Girkin has already disappeared from the war so I have no idea what you're so hard on about. If you're so dead set on the history of this whole conflict then why don't you start raising questions about Kiev unwilling to investigate the circumstances of February 2014? What about Odessa in May last year, anything official from Kiev yet? So every time you point fingers in the name of your Kiev heroes then just understand who you're defending here.

Kiev closed Ukraine for the French MPs who have visited Crimea. Let's see how the French government likes that.

Neutrality wrote:

I'm talking about your way of speaking by raising questions which are apparently humurous to you only . Girkin has already disappeared from the war so I have no idea what you're so hard on about. If you're so dead set on the history of this whole conflict then why don't you start raising questions about Kiev unwilling to investigate the circumstances of February 2014? What about Odessa in May last year, anything official from Kiev yet? So every time you point fingers in the name of your Kiev heroes then just understand who you're defending here.

I did also not talk about the liberation of the Crimea, the Moon landings, Euro 2012, and, in fact, about Strelkov. I was talking about Petrovsky and his relations to Strelkov, and the reason for this is my interest in this character. If you read my posts instead of assuming this and that you might see what I am talking about

if you think I have "been pointing fingers in the name of Kiev heroes" you maybe will be so kind to direct me to that post so I can explain myself? That has not been my intentions at all, I just wanted to find out more about Petrovsky.

Dforce wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

I'm talking about your way of speaking by raising questions which are apparently humurous to you only . Girkin has already disappeared from the war so I have no idea what you're so hard on about. If you're so dead set on the history of this whole conflict then why don't you start raising questions about Kiev unwilling to investigate the circumstances of February 2014? What about Odessa in May last year, anything official from Kiev yet? So every time you point fingers in the name of your Kiev heroes then just understand who you're defending here.

I did also not talk about the liberation of the Crimea, the Moon landings, Euro 2012, and, in fact, about Strelkov. I was talking about Petrovsky and his relations to Strelkov, and the reason for this is my interest in this character. If you read my posts instead of assuming this and that you might see what I am talking about

if you think I have "been pointing fingers in the name of Kiev heroes" you maybe will be so kind to direct me to that post so I can explain myself? That has not been my intentions at all, I just wanted to find out more about Petrovsky.

Reading MP.net member's circle jerk, including you, told me enough about your stance.

Neutrality wrote:Kiev closed Ukraine for the French MPs who have visited Crimea. Let's see how the French government likes that.

I doubt France will say a word.

Speaking of France, I was told that our boys are beginning to take our equipment out of the Sevastopol and the Vladivostok. Methinks this means France is ready to write the check.

franco wrote:Apparently not all Ukrainian Canadians support Kiev;
http://russia-insider.com/en/ukrainian-canadian-scholar-west-does-not-want-conflict-ukraine-resolved/ri8934

He is not alone. While this article is not directly about the present crisis, it is about how the UPA/OUN diaspora are in denial about their involvement in war crimes. The author, John-Paul Himka, is of course attacked by apologists for the UPA/OUN diaspora in north America. http://www.yorku.ca/soi/_Vol_5_1/_HTML/Himka.html


Edit: While on the subject of Canadian Ukranians I have "stolen" this info from another forum, but used a different photo. Anyway, this photo is of the spokesman for the OSCE mission in Kiev. He is Michael Bociurkiw. His father, Bogdan Bociurkiw, was born in Galicia and was a supporter of the fascist Bandera. Such impartiality in OSCE.....

[quote="gregoire"]

Regular wrote:

I don't get this. So called "whites" call themselves cracker and redneck all the time? Or whats the russian equivalent, vatnik?
Try respecting others. It's refreshing.

Vatnik is nothing to do with the race. It's a slang of a word coined for Russian lowlifes who were typically wearing padded jackets. Similar to bomzh (homeless), but vatnik is targeted specifically at Russians.

To be honest only Russian slang for white person would be belosnezhka - snow white. But it comes from movies, no one would call anyone like that. But I know like 10 words how to describe black, asians and etc.By the way N word in Russian language is not ethnic slur.
And respect has to be deserved, just my opinion. Being black or white doesn't make me want not to treat person like shit.

Back on topic,
Good news for Russia - Ukrainians living and working in Russia will have to obey to new regulations

Pardon for using this source

Regular wrote:

gregoire wrote:

Regular wrote:

I don't get this. So called "whites" call themselves cracker and redneck all the time? Or whats the russian equivalent, vatnik?
Try respecting others. It's refreshing.

Vatnik is nothing to do with the race. It's a slang of a word coined for Russian lowlifes who were typically wearing padded jackets. Similar to bomzh (homeless), but vatnik is targeted specifically at Russians.

To be honest only Russian slang for white person would be belosnezhka - snow white. But it comes from movies, no one would call anyone like that. But I know like 10 words how to describe black, asians and etc.By the way N word in Russian language is not ethnic slur.
And respect has to be deserved, just my opinion. Being black or white doesn't make me want not to treat person like shit.

Back on topic,
Good news for Russia - Ukrainians living and working in Russia will have to obey to new regulations

Pardon for using this source

Neger isn#t even an insult towards blacks, it is what they are and they call themselfs like that and their countries have names Nigeria and Niger, it is the west that has perversed this name to an insult and slang for something "inferior" and russians do not have such commercialized abuse of this words.

Dforce wrote:

auslander wrote:You can do almost anything you want with the people as long as you keep them well fed and warm in winter. One of the two is now suspect. This winter is going to be interesting for the ukes. Hunger and cold breeds revolution.

I seem to recall the exact same line from some before last winter, but nothing happened.

But that is not what I was curious about, I want to talk about Sergey Nikolayevich Petrovsky. What is your take on "khmury", how involved was he in the uprising in the East? What are his political motives? What is his relations to Strelkov?

You  have more in common with some members here than you think Big D and that is belief that this war will last only couple of years or less. As always, you could not be more wrong.

Winter 2014 was extremely hard for ukrops with little food, heat or money.

Winter 2015 will be much harder with lot less food, heat or money.

Winter 2016 will be even harder with even less food, heat or money.

Winter 2017 will be harder still, with even less food, heat or money.

Winter 2018 will be even harder......... oh, heck you see where I'm going with this, just rinse and repeat until late 2020's.

You see, changing government in Kiev has not been in the interest of Russia for quite some time now. Much more desired outcome now is total societal collapse in Ukraine.

When that objective is achieved (and there is no need to rush it) then what was once Ukraine will be easily controled, demilitarized, partitioned and remade into something that will be Ukraine in name only but will be in reality very loose and harmless confederacy.

And best of all (for Russia, at least) dragging this on for decade or more will solve couple of additional problems. It will make former Ukraine extremely cheap to manage since average ukrop will by then learn to live without trivial stuff like clean water, quality or even average food, heat, housing, education, healthcare, infrastructure, decent life expectancy, etc.... You know, Gucci stuff...

Other sweet side effect is that it will make controll of that place very cheap and simple because there will be plenty of locals (hell, there are plenty of them now) to outsource this to in exchange for guns and some trivial amount of cash. Good times...

Also all those things will greatly be helped by rapidly shrinking Ukrainian population.

West is already bored with Ukraine... they will be even more bored several years from now.

In the end Ukraine will be, as they say in South Park, fractured but whole.

A while back dude named Robert Mugabe said ''I will not let my country become another Ukraine''
Not a good sign...

We have just started second year of this great adventure (dare I call it, saga). We have many years ahead so buckle up Big D we'll be here for quite a while.  

Dforce wrote:

auslander wrote:You can do almost anything you want with the people as long as you keep them well fed and warm in winter. One of the two is now suspect. This winter is going to be interesting for the ukes. Hunger and cold breeds revolution.

I seem to recall the exact same line from some before last winter, but nothing happened.

But that is not what I was curious about, I want to talk about Sergey Nikolayevich Petrovsky. What is your take on "khmury", how involved was he in the uprising in the East? What are his political motives? What is his relations to Strelkov?

You need to look up the link you posted on the other forum, your post #5129 from yesterday at 02:00PM, 24.07.2015. Don't worry, you don't have to bother going in and editing that post, I've screen shot it. I've also got the link just in case the screen shot doesn't hold. If anyone wants it and doesn't want to go the themess to get it, just PM me. I won't post that drivel here.

auslander wrote:
You need to look up the link you posted on the other forum, your post #5129 from yesterday at 02:00PM, 24.07.2015. Don't worry, you don't have to bother going in and editing that post, I've screen shot it. I've also got the link just in case the screen shot doesn't hold. If anyone wants it and doesn't want to go the themess to get it, just PM me. I won't post that drivel here.

Yes, what is secret about that? I read that article a few days ago and got interested in the man, and instead of posting the on this forum very controversial article in order to start a flame war I went the polite way and asked about him as I assumed that there was more knowledge here. I really do not see your point here, do you WANT me to post material here that you do not like?

Dforce wrote:

auslander wrote:
You need to look up the link you posted on the other forum, your post #5129 from yesterday at 02:00PM, 24.07.2015. Don't worry, you don't have to bother going in and editing that post, I've screen shot it. I've also got the link just in case the screen shot doesn't hold. If anyone wants it and doesn't want to go the themess to get it, just PM me. I won't post that drivel here.

Yes, what is secret about that? I read that article a few days ago and got interested in the man, and instead of posting the on this forum very controversial article in order to start a flame war I went the polite way and asked about him as I assumed that there was more knowledge here. I really do not see your point here, do you WANT me to post material here that you do not like?

Quite frankly I don't care what you post. You just went to 'ignore'. Troll all you want, I won't have to see it.

LNR, 31st blockpost near Bakhmutka that was captured by LPR in January. Nearby soil stil bears the scars of a yearl long fighting
colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2306226.html

Stupid restriction on posting links. Wtf?

Ruthenius wrote:LNR, 31st blockpost near Bakhmutka that was captured by LPR in January. Nearby soil stil bears the scars of a yearl long fighting
colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2306226.html

Stupid restriction on posting links. Wtf?

Don't worry, Ruthenius, we love you even if you can't post links. Takes I think a week, maybe two, before link posting is allowed. That's to keep the spammers away I suppose.

franco wrote:Good read on the overall strategic game being played out from The Saker;

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://politobzor.net/show-59985-zaharchenko-deynego-i-pushilin-ustroili-lovushku-poroshenko.html&usg=ALkJrhiVj80yWsN4nAXcAQRynZkC0aNm8g

Saker link in English:

http://thesaker.is/zakharchenko-deinego-and-pushilin-have-set-a-trap-for-poroshenko/

Poroshenko's brain farts continue: http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201507252342-ygx7.htm

Ivan the Colorado wrote:Poroshenko's brain farts continue: http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201507252342-ygx7.htm

Sometimes you just shake your head in wonderment. Lemme see here, Rostov na Danau. I think he stands a pretty good chance of getting there and I for one urge him to seize the moment and attack immediately.