The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

^^ But casualty figures cannot be supressed unless martial law is declared, heavy censorship of publications takes place and probably closing the internet in Donbass. If people know there were casualties and see officials deny it, or simply not report it, then the officials will come into disrepute, and are doing so. When there is another bombardment, despite any attempt to supress this information or ignore it, the people being bombarded will know it, will know who has been killed and wounded. It is better to be honest and say what has happened as regards civilian casualties. Was it not in the interests of the Bosniaks about the Sarajevo market attack, or with some curious hysteric British officer running about screaming about how "terrible" Serbs were because he had seen some bodies in some village. People will take bad news, but they need to know there will be an end and retribution. As for military casualties and were they have occured should of course be secret. There were casualties, including deaths, among VSN yesterday, but you won't find official news of this, which is correct.

Crimea is 4% the size of Ukraine. Ukraine is 3% the size of Russia. Crimea is a tiny gain for Russia, a huge loss for Ukraine. The US does not need Crimea to threaten Russia. The US can base its fleet at Odessa. The US has achieved its goal of turning Ukrainians against Russia the moment Putin fell into the US's trap and absorbed Crimea into Russia.

Crimea is strategically important and historically very important to Russia and critical to the Russian Navy.

The US couldn't do anything the Ukrainians didn't want to do... they have been anti Russian for some time... it is always easier to blame your own problems on someone else...

Russia absorbing the Crimea was certainly not in Americas plan... they crapped themselves when it happened... it was perhaps the biggest own goal in US history... comparable to their stooge Osama Bin Laden crashing planes on 11/9 after they pretty much created him to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Crimea was a trap because Ukrainians won't stop hating Russia until Russia returns Crimea to Ukraine.

Russia needs the Ukraine like it needs a retarded little brother it will have to look after for the rest of their lives... now the EU has started adoption proceedings Putin would be stupid to try to stop them...

If regions of the Ukraine want to separate then that is up to THEM. It is not for Russia or Putin to decide.

Think about it. If some country snatched Ukraine from Russia, wouldn't Russians hate that country forever until that country returns Ukraine to Russia?

Russia doesn't own the Ukraine and is better off without it.

Listen to Flaming Python... he doesn't represent all of Russia but he is Russian so his views probably count more than yours or mine in this regard.

Border. Border. Border. Moldova and Georgia and Azerbaijan hate Russia forever. The Baltic states hate Russia forever. Ukraine hates Russia forever. Which ex Soviet republic next? Belarus? Kazakhstan? Uzbekistan? Would the US tolerate a single hostile country on its border? The answers is NO.

The US tried invading Cuba... didn't work so well from memory... And guess what... it has been Cuba that has suffered... the US has gotten along just fine even with Cuba there all this time.

It all depends what Russia aims for and what Russia wants to be in the future.

Trying to take back the whole Ukraine or even Novorossiya makes no sense if it is looked in a time frame of five years or even a decade. So if Russia is content with its current borders and its current role in the world then I guess Russia can let the West have all of Ukraine, including Donbass. This would bring some security concerns for Russia though since NATO missiles would be pointing at Russia from Kharkov and Donetsk. This is a question that Russia should think long and hard.

NATO missiles in the Ukraine will not happen without a reaction... likely a withdrawl from the INF treaty and IRBMs pointing at brussels and the Ukraine and all the capitals in between.

the only reason Russia would care about Ukraine would be if they plan to recreate the Soviet Union... they don't... they don't need that crap... they have plenty of land and people... more than they know what to do with in fact... a fact that pisses of many of the Yanks...

But if we look at this with a time frame of 50 or 100 years it is a different story. Is Russia really content with losing historical Russian land, the most fertile Russian land, eternally for the enemy?

Are you kidding... in 50-100 years Russia will be able to buy farmland in lots of places around the world like China is doing right now...

With it's current borders it is not possible.

Technology to grow crops in extreme conditions would be valuable for space exploration and colonisation...

You don't dare to fight Maidan in Donbas. That makes you a coward. I'm Canadian. I'm not going to fight your Slavic battles. You should ask your leader Putin why he is watching this war as entertainment.

The only Russian army maiden will fight in the donbass is in their minds.

If the donbass wants to fight its own government it can do so... why should they expect Russia to fight for them? There is no evidence they like Russia any more than they hate their current government.

I have no alter ego. I have 1 account. If you talk out of your a that's your problem. If I see Putin myself I would throw a shoe at him for not sending peacekeepers the people of Donbas have requested last May. To me he is a coward and a sadist who enjoys seeing people die by the thousands. Putin would never have been elected a mayor in the west let alone a president. Who does he think he is? A king? An emperor? Who gives him the right to change presidential term from 4 years to 6 years?

Hahahahahaha... you are a fucking clown... Poroshenko bombs the people of the Donbass... his own people and you blame Putin.

Turks fight and die in Syria by the tens of thousands and they are beating the Syrian army. You Russians don't dare to charge Maidan's army positions because you are bunch of cowards. That's why you'll never beat Maidan.

The Turks fight because if the PKK win or ISIS win they are next.

Amusing you think bombing your neighbours has anything to do with bravery or cowardice.

You know what? NAF is not brave. They are bunch of cowards.

A few moments ago you accused Seph of being an internet warrior.

Sounds very much like the retarded Pakistani "advisers" that went to Afghanistan in the 1980s to tell the Muj that they were unislamic because they didn't fight hard enough.

Because of this I would describe your actions as Trolling... can you give me a good reason for not banning you for three days?

An apology would suffice (not to me).

Or are you too brave and want to take your porridge?

BTW calling NAF cowards is the height of stupidity... they are defending themselves from an out of control government... I am sure if it happened to you you would invade Vancouver within weeks

War is what makes a nation strong. What does not kill you makes you stronger. This is why Putin does not end this war. This war makes the Russian people stronger. A nation forged in the heat of battle is a strong nation.

Really? WWII bankrupted Europe and made them Americas bitch.

News flash for that fag. The war won't be over 50 years from now.

Tough guy... I have changed my mind... you have no choice now... you will get a three day break.

When you can post again I hope you might have learned a lesson and apologise, but if you don't that is OK too... I can't force you to be a mature grown up.

^ i read the comments under the link you posted, people are clearly not happy and the issue with casualty numbers is being noticed.

Back on that other site, i remember a lot of pro westerners arguing that the rebels were using civvilian casualties for their own propaganda purposes, so what happened to that idea? The current tactic of being the 'good guy' only works if you are simultaneously highlighting the crimes of the bad guy. Otherwise its pointless.

This is just one indication of the erroneous pr staregy of the leadership, it seems all the good stuff they were doing over the winter has gone out of the window and they no longer know how to use the media in their favour.

Rodinazombie wrote:^ i read the comments under the link you posted, people are clearly not happy and the issue with casualty numbers is being noticed.

Back on that other site, i remember a lot of pro westerners arguing that the rebels were using civvilian casualties for their own propaganda purposes, so what happened to that idea? The current tactic of being the 'good guy' only works if you are simultaneously highlighting the crimes of the bad guy. Otherwise its pointless.

This is just one indication of the erroneous pr staregy of the leadership, it seems all the good stuff they were doing over the winter has gone out of the window and they no longer know how to use the media in their favour.

I don't think we're there anymore. There's no good guy anymore. There are two separate entities which are more and more going their own merry ways. This is what is really making me worried. Because that means the guys East have lost patience and are daring Ukraine to go in the offensive, while knowing full well Ukraine is done for as an offensive group. You don't start digging trenches when you go on the offensive. This tells me one thing. Russia bet on Ukraine making a crazy run for the "gun" around July and it didn't happen, because Russia effectively broke the Ukrainian Army in those two big phases in August and Februay. Now they're faced with a beatdown Ukraine, which only acts like a boogeyman for DNR's kids, while not having an appetite to go for the kill, as it needs to consolidate its own tenure.

This now effectively became just a banal political bargaining, with the US having achieved what it needs, Russia having at least some peace of mind and Europe looking hagard and trying to pick up its own pieces.

People who refused to look at this as a geopolitical bout, should wake up and asses Round 1. Because Round 2 is way too far for now.

Rodinazombie wrote:^ i read the comments under the link you posted, people are clearly not happy and the issue with casualty numbers is being noticed.

Back on that other site, i remember a lot of pro westerners arguing that the rebels were using civvilian casualties for their own propaganda purposes, so what happened to that idea? The current tactic of being the 'good guy' only works if you are simultaneously highlighting the crimes of the bad guy. Otherwise its pointless.

This is just one indication of the erroneous pr staregy of the leadership, it seems all the good stuff they were doing over the winter has gone out of the window and they no longer know how to use the media in their favour.

I think somebody decided that as the destruction of civilan infrastucture and civilian casualties will not be reported in the west, and that is mostly the only audience that needs convincing of what really happens, then this almost monk like silence and stone face is better. The discontent behind the stone face is only seen by ukrops and on the Russian networks, it is not noticed in the west, it is not reported in the west, and only an extremely tiny number of people in the angloshere in a handful of forums such as this will know anything about all this. Say the name Gorlovka or Shakhtyorsk to any of your work colleages and they probably think you have a sore throat and not trying to say the name of a city that they know anything about or care about, yes.

Ukraine isnt going to attack.

We were correct when we all agreed that ukraine will continue the war as poroshenko needs war and an 'external' enemy to keep his regime in power. The mistake we made though was that we believed ukraine will go on the attack again, the losses in august and winter were catastrophic for ukraine and any more such adventures will cost him dearly. He wont attack because he knows what the response will be, and for him it will be more damaging than not attacking. What he can do however is to keep the war going on a small scale to keep the people focused on defending european borders from the mongol hordes.

Russia and dpr know this, hence we have the baiting ukies into the attack we have seen the past few months. I dont think ukraine will fall onto the trap however, so where we go next is anyones gues.

Regarding the casualty numbers, there is now an article on RT which states that 28 civilians have been killed in the first week of August alone. The source quoted is a DPR official.

http://russian.rt.com/article/108336

Khepesh wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:^ i read the comments under the link you posted, people are clearly not happy and the issue with casualty numbers is being noticed.

Back on that other site, i remember a lot of pro westerners arguing that the rebels were using civvilian casualties for their own propaganda purposes, so what happened to that idea? The current tactic of being the 'good guy' only works if you are simultaneously highlighting the crimes of the bad guy. Otherwise its pointless.

This is just one indication of the erroneous pr staregy of the leadership, it seems all the good stuff they were doing over the winter has gone out of the window and they no longer know how to use the media in their favour.

I think somebody decided that as the destruction of civilan infrastucture and civilian casualties will not be reported in the west, and that is mostly the only audience that needs convincing of what really happens, then this almost monk like silence and stone face is better. The discontent behind the stone face is only seen by ukrops and on the Russian networks, it is not noticed in the west, it is not reported in the west, and only an extremely tiny number of people in the angloshere in a handful of forums such as this will know anything about all this. Say the name Gorlovka or Shakhtyorsk to any of your work colleages and they probably think you have a sore throat and not trying to say the name of a city that they know anything about or care about, yes.

Exactly, and even when it was "heard", the spin was against the locals or 'rougue elements'. It was a loss of time to report it...

Rodina: Ukraine's war isn't what you think it is. Settling the situation without a continuation war, isn't about to help anyone here (anyone means UA and it's backers) restart that country. In order to become productive again, Ukraine needs a closure, even for show. There can't be any when 15% of your territory is out of reach or amidst artillery duels (Crimea and Donbass) and you have to go install Gauleiters in about a quarter or more of your "National Territory". That's just ludicrious for anyone. So there's this thing. Ukraine either backs down either tries again some years from now during some "wargames" with US or NATO. With the risk of having a "Big'Un" blowing up in our collective faces. As of now, this isn't going anywhere because UA hasn't the funds to go back to a re-armament and the MIC is at best compromised, at worse counter productive.

And did we mentioned the Winter Issue?

Are people watching what has been happening on the Volnovakha front? as ukrops are trying to say VSN launched an offensive on ukrops 72nd Brigade at Starognatovka in the early hours of this morning. It's all a bit confusing at the moment but seems ukrops lost 11 dead and VSN one, so hardly an "offensive" I think. http://dnr24.com/main/11979-boi-na-yuzhnom-fronte-grozyat-pererasti-v-novuyu-voynu.html

Rodinazombie wrote:Ukraine isnt going to attack.

But in the end it's going to attack.

If Kiev starts seeing a military defeat as an option for their political games count on it.

Telmanovo currently under artillery fire.

Ukraine has been  sliced open like a pig and left to bleed out, plain and simple.

And like any bleeding animal they might try to run away and bite at random but it only hastens the inevitable.

Honestly, does anyone really see that country surviving all this? I will be surprised if they even manage to hang on to name ''Ukraine'' without adding terms like ''confederation'' or ''federal'' or ''union''...

To add to Ghoster's post. Multiple full salvoes of Grad reported coming down on Telmanovo and casualties reported.

Some caution is needed here as to what this could mean. If reports come in of possible Smerch and Tochka-U attacks on Starabeshevo and out towards Snezhnoe, then it begins, but otherwise caution. This would apply to any potential start of something more than "random" bombardment.

Khepesh wrote:To add to Ghoster's post. Multiple full salvoes of Grad reported coming down on Telmanovo and casualties reported.

Some caution is needed here as to what this could mean. If reports come in of possible Smerch and Tochka-U attacks on Starabeshevo and out towards Snezhnoe, then it begins, but otherwise caution. This would apply to any potential start of something more than "random" bombardment.

I don't see it. If this is truly an artillery barrage before any offensive then why lay it down on civvies and not NAF positions?

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:To add to Ghoster's post. Multiple full salvoes of Grad reported coming down on Telmanovo and casualties reported.

Some caution is needed here as to what this could mean. If reports come in of possible Smerch and Tochka-U attacks on Starabeshevo and out towards Snezhnoe, then it begins, but otherwise caution. This would apply to any potential start of something more than "random" bombardment.

I don't see it. If this is truly an artillery barrage before any offensive then why lay it down on civvies and not NAF positions?

I agree, but there is something rather odd going on today. It seems that what happened this morning was ukrops attacking their own positions at Starognatovka and claiming a VSN offensive underway, then attempting an attack themselves which was beaten off with what seems dozens of casualties, mostly wounded, then claiming victory for taking the hights at Starognatovka that they already held. It's all a total mess with them.

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:To add to Ghoster's post. Multiple full salvoes of Grad reported coming down on Telmanovo and casualties reported.

Some caution is needed here as to what this could mean. If reports come in of possible Smerch and Tochka-U attacks on Starabeshevo and out towards Snezhnoe, then it begins, but otherwise caution. This would apply to any potential start of something more than "random" bombardment.

I don't see it. If this is truly an artillery barrage before any offensive then why lay it down on civvies and not NAF positions?

I agree, but there is something rather odd going on today. It seems that what happened this morning was ukrops attacking their own positions at Starognatovka and claiming a VSN offensive underway, then attempting an attack themselves which was beaten off with what seems dozens of casualties, mostly wounded, then claiming victory for taking the hights at Starognatovka that they already held. It's all a total mess with them.

How the hell is that possible? If this is true then my already low opinion on Ukrops is higher than it should be. Attacking their own positions? Seriously what? I wonder how that looked like, Ukrainian flags shooting Ukrainian flags. Must be one hell of a show I think.

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:To add to Ghoster's post. Multiple full salvoes of Grad reported coming down on Telmanovo and casualties reported.

Some caution is needed here as to what this could mean. If reports come in of possible Smerch and Tochka-U attacks on Starabeshevo and out towards Snezhnoe, then it begins, but otherwise caution. This would apply to any potential start of something more than "random" bombardment.

I don't see it. If this is truly an artillery barrage before any offensive then why lay it down on civvies and not NAF positions?

I agree, but there is something rather odd going on today. It seems that what happened this morning was ukrops attacking their own positions at Starognatovka and claiming a VSN offensive underway, then attempting an attack themselves which was beaten off with what seems dozens of casualties, mostly wounded, then claiming victory for taking the hights at Starognatovka that they already held. It's all a total mess with them.

How the hell is that possible? If this is true then my already low opinion on Ukrops is higher than it should be. Attacking their own positions? Seriously what? I wonder how that looked like, Ukrainian flags shooting Ukrainian flags. Must be one hell of a show I think.

Serious control problems. There were three ukrops formations involved, army, marines and pravy sektor, who from reports and photos from the field hospital, took the majority of the casualties. Maybe they attempted some sort of "Gleiwitz" and due to incompetance it went badly wrong, maybe they really are simply neanderthals.

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:To add to Ghoster's post. Multiple full salvoes of Grad reported coming down on Telmanovo and casualties reported.

Some caution is needed here as to what this could mean. If reports come in of possible Smerch and Tochka-U attacks on Starabeshevo and out towards Snezhnoe, then it begins, but otherwise caution. This would apply to any potential start of something more than "random" bombardment.

I don't see it. If this is truly an artillery barrage before any offensive then why lay it down on civvies and not NAF positions?

I agree, but there is something rather odd going on today. It seems that what happened this morning was ukrops attacking their own positions at Starognatovka and claiming a VSN offensive underway, then attempting an attack themselves which was beaten off with what seems dozens of casualties, mostly wounded, then claiming victory for taking the hights at Starognatovka that they already held. It's all a total mess with them.

How the hell is that possible? If this is true then my already low opinion on Ukrops is higher than it should be. Attacking their own positions? Seriously what? I wonder how that looked like, Ukrainian flags shooting Ukrainian flags. Must be one hell of a show I think.

Serious control problems. There were three ukrops formations involved, army, marines and pravy sektor, who from reports and photos from the field hospital, took the majority of the casualties. Maybe they attempted some sort of "Gleiwitz" and due to incompetance it went badly wrong, maybe they really are simply neanderthals.

If true then wow, what a bunch of retards. I hope this comes out and someone from the media covers this shenanigans.

Neutrality wrote:

If true then wow, what a bunch of retards. I hope this comes out and someone from the media covers this shenanigans.

I forgot to add that ukrops just happened to have a journalist at the scene who was quickly reporting back about the "Terrorists offensive". And how unusual and odd that there are photos from a ukrops field hospital. Were they going to show all the "victims" of this offensive as proof, and I wonder if the casualties that were actually shown were not in fact actors. Real casualties being somewhere out of sight. One of the strangest incidents of the war so far I think.

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:To add to Ghoster's post. Multiple full salvoes of Grad reported coming down on Telmanovo and casualties reported.

Some caution is needed here as to what this could mean. If reports come in of possible Smerch and Tochka-U attacks on Starabeshevo and out towards Snezhnoe, then it begins, but otherwise caution. This would apply to any potential start of something more than "random" bombardment.

I don't see it. If this is truly an artillery barrage before any offensive then why lay it down on civvies and not NAF positions?

I agree, but there is something rather odd going on today. It seems that what happened this morning was ukrops attacking their own positions at Starognatovka and claiming a VSN offensive underway, then attempting an attack themselves which was beaten off with what seems dozens of casualties, mostly wounded, then claiming victory for taking the hights at Starognatovka that they already held. It's all a total mess with them.

How the hell is that possible? If this is true then my already low opinion on Ukrops is higher than it should be. Attacking their own positions? Seriously what? I wonder how that looked like, Ukrainian flags shooting Ukrainian flags. Must be one hell of a show I think.

Serious control problems. There were three ukrops formations involved, army, marines and pravy sektor, who from reports and photos from the field hospital, took the majority of the casualties. Maybe they attempted some sort of "Gleiwitz" and due to incompetance it went badly wrong, maybe they really are simply neanderthals.

Even in the context of this conflict, this would be pretty, um... extraordinary. Can you provide sources?

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

If true then wow, what a bunch of retards. I hope this comes out and someone from the media covers this shenanigans.

I forgot to add that ukrops just happened to have a journalist at the scene who was quickly reporting back about the "Terrorists offensive". And how unusual and odd that there are photos from a ukrops field hospital. Were they going to show all the "victims" of this offensive as proof, and I wonder if the casualties that were actually shown were not in fact actors. Real casualties being somewhere out of sight. One of the strangest incidents of the war so far I think.

I am not so concerned as to what the hand I can see is doing, said hand making a lot of noise and fuss, I want to know what the hand I can not see is doing. Never forget, our little orc friends now have had for some time a pretty extensive cadre of experienced no gooodniks who are masters at staged provocations and obfuscations. Never trust them, never let your guard down for a second. In my opinion the pullback of light and heavy units was in preparation of the coming offensive. The orcs have been steadily ranging in their arty on just about every patch of grass and flowers in the front lines amongst the seemingly random attacks on civilian infrastructure and living areas . By pulling back a bit and staying totally mobile our boys have tossed a spanner in their gears in that the usual Sov arty prep won't work to any great extent beyond slaughtering more of our civilians. This ongoing slaughter will, and has, motivated our boys to the extent that when they are finally turned loose, and this will happen, it's going to closely resemble a monkey having conjugal relations with a football and it's the orcs who will be the football.

BKP wrote:
Even in the context of this conflict, this would be pretty, um... extraordinary. Can you provide sources?

http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1950552.html
http://www.politnavigator.net/pravyjj-sektor-i-72-ya-brigada-ponesli-sereznye-poteri-v-telmanovskom-rajjone.html
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2330714.html
http://dnr24.com/main/11979-boi-na-yuzhnom-fronte-grozyat-pererasti-v-novuyu-voynu.html
http://novorossiya.name/boi-pod-novoy-laspoy-i-starognatovkoy/
http://rusvesna.su/news/1439198051

Here is the skill level of the orcs and their masters. Demo Sevastopol 09 March 2014. Pick up at 4:45. The boy never got out of the SUV and yes, we recorded the number.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aHZGLJGMWw

Whether ukrops succeed or fail in what it is they are doing on the ground, they succeed in the most important area, the media, why, because of this
http://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-reports-heavy-shelling-and-warns-of-imminent-escalation/a-18638842
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-ukraine-crisis-conflict-idUSKCN0QF1B420150810

So it really doesn't matter what VSN do as they will get the blame no matter what, and Putin personally of course.

A search of DW brings no results for Gorlovka, and a search on Reuters brings only one result from all of this year, from January, but the report is worded in a very odd way, and of course the obligatory mention of MH17, so that no blame is attached to ukrops for the shelling. By the date of this report more than 100 residents of Gorlovka had been killed since the beginning of January, yet here they only mention 14 killed and do not say who by. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/ukraine-crisis-east-idUSL6N0Q41V020140729

Khepesh wrote:Whether ukrops succeed or fail in what it is they are doing on the ground, they succeed in the most important area, the media, why, because of this
http://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-reports-heavy-shelling-and-warns-of-imminent-escalation/a-18638842
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-ukraine-crisis-conflict-idUSKCN0QF1B420150810

So it really doesn't matter what VSN do as they will get the blame no matter what, and Putin personally of course.

Will those headlines bring them large amounts of fresh money?

'Cause I don't see folks lining up to empty their wallets.

Sad and desperate morons living on borrowed time...