The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

Khepesh wrote:Tho it has not been posted here I presume people are aware of this on cassad -  "The DNR declared an alarm. All units are prepared for full scale offensive by ATO." etc etc http://cassad.net/vazhnoe/16232-v-dnr-obyavlena-boevaya-trevoga.html  A little alarmist and I don't think it's popcorn time just yet. We remember what we saw on the roads last year and that which is not shown this year, for obvious reasons. No video, no documentary evidence, but last night the roads were creaking under the weight, and that is why I advised to get the popcorn.

auslander wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Tho it has not been posted here I presume people are aware of this on cassad -  "The DNR declared an alarm. All units are prepared for full scale offensive by ATO." etc etc http://cassad.net/vazhnoe/16232-v-dnr-obyavlena-boevaya-trevoga.html  A little alarmist and I don't think it's popcorn time just yet. We remember what we saw on the roads last year and that which is not shown this year, for obvious reasons. No video, no documentary evidence, but last night the roads were creaking under the weight, and that is why I advised to get the popcorn.

All the indications, both public and not public, indicate an offense in the making. We'll know in anything from a few hours to days if it occurs. As you well know a 'stand to' is prudent at this time.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

auslander wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Tho it has not been posted here I presume people are aware of this on cassad -  "The DNR declared an alarm. All units are prepared for full scale offensive by ATO." etc etc http://cassad.net/vazhnoe/16232-v-dnr-obyavlena-boevaya-trevoga.html  A little alarmist and I don't think it's popcorn time just yet. We remember what we saw on the roads last year and that which is not shown this year, for obvious reasons. No video, no documentary evidence, but last night the roads were creaking under the weight, and that is why I advised to get the popcorn.

All the indications, both public and not public, indicate an offense in the making. We'll know in anything from a few hours to days if it occurs. As you well know a 'stand to' is prudent at this time.

But with what? So far so the VSU hasn't even completed it's replenishing. The word out there is that at best the VSU is at 60% of what it was in July-August. Tha would be madness for them to try anything of the kind.

This is suicide by Russia.

auslander wrote:
DNR/LNR are not the only ones going to heightened alert. Remember, we can hear Belbek very well from our digs, we are not blind to what is happening on the local roads and we can see the harbor day and night.

It's going to be a very long night.  

Ispan wrote:

auslander wrote:
DNR/LNR are not the only ones going to heightened alert. Remember, we can hear Belbek very well from our digs, we are not blind to what is happening on the local roads and we can see the harbor day and night.

It's going to be a very long night.  

On that, we went outside for a walk on the seaside at Primorski, Feodosiya, and everybody was startled by the noise of jet engines. Everybody looked up and saw a pair of Sukhoi 27  flying at a few hundred meters altitude  below the cloud ceiling. Heading north. I asked my wife's and her mom said that they haven't ever heard a jet around these parts and that's why everybody was looking, Mi 8 helicopters yes, on occasion. But jets never before.

If in this God forsaken sleepy village we see activity, I imagine Sevastopol must be like a beehive.

For those of you that know Russian, more signs of the offensive preparations

http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201508121608-3iqx.htm

rough google translationin english of key points:


Kharkov train station. Observed hundreds of military backpacks.

In the industrial zone of Novoaydar, locals noticed concealed military vehicles. From there towards Schastye observed about 30 tanks and 2 BM-21 rocket launchers. Also observed arrival of replacement recruits and an increase of new equipmente.

Gnutova village, near Donetsk, 14 cannon D-30 and AT guns Rapira. Passing through the village trucks loaded with infantry , vans and ambulances. Locals prepare cellars as refuge against bombardment.

Through Druzhovku 12 August 05:00 drove a column of tanks, 2 columns of light armor, howitzers, and many fuel trucks. One hour later a column of tanks crossed in the same way.

In Alekseevka there was a sighting of the dreaded Baltic women snipers.  



WAR REPORT, manpads, strelas at ready for ukie aviation



ukranian losses

Khepesh wrote:Instructions have been issued with all the emergency contact information, were in the districts to go for emergency medical supplies, what basic medical supplies everybody should by now have anyway, dressings etc. Also instructions on how to tape up windows on the outside and inside and what to do when you come under bombardment. People already know to take cover, lie flat on the ground etc, but these new instructions advise that the entrance doors to appartment blocks and buildings be left unlocked so if a sudden bombardment occurs people on the streets can know they can, if there is time, rush into any building and get in the basement. I think this is more for air attack were there should be a little advance warning than for artillery which is suddenly falling.

Earlier the lights were switched off in parts of Mariupol, perhaps to better see the meteor shower, or not....

Offtop, but the Moskva on fire, like a mini nuke in China, and all the other shit. It's the end of the world, were are all doomed

PapaDragon wrote:
MSM seem quiet, but I expect that to change.

Kiev really has no other options than to go for hail Mary pass. Money is gone, debts are in, coal is no more, winter is around the corner and public in the west are tired of this whole story especially since they all realised that it will be them who will pay for Ukraine for decades to come.

UAF will get slaughtered but I guess most of them are still in denial. Their are just as useful to Kiev dead in the off chance that Porky gets some pittance based on their demise.

Civilians should hit the basements or run like hell.  I hope NAF are locked and loaded. If this is it then they better be ready for some heavy lifting soon.




In the meantime, some last minute cleanup:

''49 minutes ago
#Ukrainian politician & businessman #Eremeev, main competitor of oligarch @IgorKolomoysky, died from major head trauma. #BusinessAsUsual''

https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/631534184029274112?lang=en

auslander wrote:If it comes to what it looks like I doubt this time when Merkel and Golland run to Mockba they will get anything but short shrift. Twice they saved the orcs, this, the third time, there will be no saving them.

JohninMK wrote:http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/breaking-donetsk-under-massive.html

Ukrainian occupational forces shelling Donetsk.

Around 18:00 from the direction of Pesok, UAF are massively bombarding October (Oktyabrskiy) suburb with artillery cannons. Fires are raging.

Direction: airport, Metro - firefight supported by UAF artillery. In Oktyabrskiy fires are observed.

The head of the Kubyshev district of Donetsk, Ivan Prikhodko reported to “Russian Spring” about hits on apartment houses and civilian deaths:

“Starting from 18:00 and ongoing:  Timura street 19 - direct hit, Vasilchenko street 34, 35, 37 - several homes are on fire, Luzina street, house 6, apartment 15 - direct hit on the fifth floor, Timura street - hit on the outdoor kitchen followed by fire, Kremlevskiy prospect 9 - one woman injured, one killed (Galina Sklyarova), Krasnoznamennaya street 41 - man injured.” He confirmed that such information was from 19:00.

Vkontakte wrote:"VSU launched an attack across the front line. The fighting goes across the front line. The main areas of clashes are Volnovaha, Lugansk, Mariupol, Avdeevka, Yasinovataya and Gorlovka. MAT launched an attack around 18:00. The first clash occurred in Adveevke. The fighting began immediately, using heavy artillery, small arms and large. The siloviki are not particularly aim, as under fire hit Kiev region of Donetsk. The shells lay on the street Vasil, Timur and Kurchatov. Are fixed entering the houses. It is also one of the shells flew up to Makeyevka, falling on the street Metallurgical.

The enemy continues to pull forces to the area Starognatovki. Exploration DNI fixed columns promotion APU toward White Kamenka, after which it was dealt artillery strike. At security forces heavy losses. About two dozen guns moved from Mariupol to Sahanku and October. At the same time strengthen their own positions VSU in the area Kurakhovo. It seems that the enemy fears the army troops break the NPT, which has once again defeated the security forces in the district of Donetsk airport for Marinka.

Less than an hour ago, we were attacked settlements and Spartak Yasinovataya. The shelling was carried out by the artillery krupnostvolnoy Avdeevka. About 20 minutes ago from Avdeevka also came under fire district Putilovki shell hit the house at Grove Street Putilovskaya 12.

At the moment, the militia emerged a meet Ukrainian troops from the settlement in October. Fights were fastened under Gnutova and Pavlopolem. DNR Army launched a counterattack at Gorlovka Avdeevka. Retreating, the VSU is applied randomly shelling residential areas Avdeevka. Locals report about arriving in Chervonogvardeyku.

On the territory of the LC are fighting in the village of Lugansk and Popasnaya. Both sides are actively used all kinds of weapons.

Just under a flared Chillmere and granite. Militia managed to take control of the height of 209.6. Shelling continues to suffer Gorlovka.

Thus, the fighting intensified across the front line, which indicates that the VSU transferred to the active phase of the offensive. "

Rodinazombie wrote:Im seeing reports that fighting has started in avdeevka and spread along the whole line of contact.  It began with a large artillery barrage before the attacks began. This report was at 01:11 local time, so 22:11 UK time here. Id urge caution with this as its just a report on vkontakte so we need to wait for further confirmation. Usually i dont report stuff from social media as most of it is junk, but in the current climate we can fully expect it to start at any moment.

For the record, I still doubt that the ukies will attack, but i hope im wrong and that they are stupid enough to try it.

Here is gorlovka at 23:20 local time:

Rodinazombie wrote:Heres the full report from vkontakte

Chersonesus wrote:Ukraine Independence Day is on 24 August. I suspect the military parade will be pretty thin this year. Maybe Porky is hoping for some good news from one final massive push before Ukraine ccollapses in on itself.

ATO wounded are being taken as far as Odessa for treatment. I wonder how much spare capacity the Ukrop medical system has.

Rodinazombie wrote:According to the live feed above, the OSCE mission is planning to leave donetsk city at 6am, we all know that rats flee when it gets too hot, so if true this may well be an indicator of things to come if their withdrawal isnt something that was pre-planned.

Khepesh wrote:

Chersonesus wrote:Ukraine Independence Day is on 24 August. I suspect the military parade will be pretty thin this year. Maybe Porky is hoping for some good news from one final massive push before Ukraine ccollapses in on itself.

ATO wounded are being taken as far as Odessa for treatment. I wonder how much spare capacity the Ukrop medical system has.

Military parade was cancelled. Probably if Ukraine still exists by then it will be a parade of mental defectives wearing embroidered shirts and waving EU and US flags and singing the Horst Wessel....