The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Dforce wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Let's recall Debaltsevo...

Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it  happened just after the Minsk II deal.

The same conditions are not there now.

Deal done fast? It took Almost two months to react to idiotic probe attacks from Ukropia at Donetsk Intl and break the wedge at Debalstevo. Are you guys following the same war as I or is this senile amnesia?

The conditions now are even better, Ukraine is shelling civilians and international organizations just reported in the simplest terms Ukraine's breach of Minsk agreement.
Idiot Turchynov goes on the Line of Contact parading in front of heavy weaponry that's supposed to be some 30 km out of there.

... Not really ideal conditions for an innocent self-defense scheme...

I don't know what's going to happen or when, but I feel like Ukraine has to just make one mistake, or conditions have to be more favorable to rebels, not more favorable than now, but they just have to be in a position where conditions favor them, or whatever objectives the rebels wish to gain...
but IDK what objectives rebels wish to gain.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:but IDK what objectives rebels wish to gain.

IDK what NAF's objectives are either. I thought NAF aims to liberate all of Donbas from Maidan. But it appears NAF is not willing to sacrifice so many men to do that, considering Maidan by now have 60,000+ soldiers in fortified bunkers and trenches all over the place.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Dforce wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Let's recall Debaltsevo...

Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it  happened just after the Minsk II deal.

The same conditions are not there now.

Deal done fast? It took Almost two months to react to idiotic probe attacks from Ukropia at Donetsk Intl and break the wedge at Debalstevo. Are you guys following the same war as I or is this senile amnesia?

The conditions now are even better, Ukraine is shelling civilians and international organizations just reported in the simplest terms Ukraine's breach of Minsk agreement.
Idiot Turchynov goes on the Line of Contact parading in front of heavy weaponry that's supposed to be some 30 km out of there.

... Not really ideal conditions for an innocent self-defense scheme...

I don't know what's going to happen or when, but I feel like Ukraine has to just make one mistake, or conditions have to be more favorable to rebels, not more favorable than now, but they just have to be in a position where conditions favor them, or whatever objectives the rebels wish to gain...
but IDK what objectives rebels wish to gain.

What the rebels wish to gain is irrelevant, whats important is what russia will allow them to gain. Russia isnt interested in having donbass as a separate state so size of territory it holds is not important, russia only needs to to exist, it doesnt care about in what size or shape its in as its only a temporary entity.

The only priority they should have is pushing back ukie arty as far back as possible.

The 'aims' of this war are long out of the rebel hands now, and they arent the end game. End game is in kiev.

Neutrality wrote:

Cassad wrote:На ресурсах хунты сообщают с ссылкой на ОБСЕ, что в Донецк переброшены 11 РСЗО "Град" ВСН.

Translation: Junta's sources report (quoting OSCE) that the NAF has positioned 11 "Grad" installations near Donetsk.

Always nice to see the confirmation that OSCE is acting as a de facto spy organization. I think we've never been closer to resuming the war as today.

EDIT: Judging by this map ( http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivanov/71733898/42710/42710_original.jpg ) it'd be wise to completely destroy VSU's positions at Svetlodarsk. It's got a cauldron written all over it.

That's a good post. If there was a like button, I'd certainly like it.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Dforce wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Let's recall Debaltsevo...

Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it  happened just after the Minsk II deal.

The same conditions are not there now.

Deal done fast? It took Almost two months to react to idiotic probe attacks from Ukropia at Donetsk Intl and break the wedge at Debalstevo. Are you guys following the same war as I or is this senile amnesia?

The conditions now are even better, Ukraine is shelling civilians and international organizations just reported in the simplest terms Ukraine's breach of Minsk agreement.
Idiot Turchynov goes on the Line of Contact parading in front of heavy weaponry that's supposed to be some 30 km out of there.

... Not really ideal conditions for an innocent self-defense scheme...

I don't know what's going to happen or when, but I feel like Ukraine has to just make one mistake, or conditions have to be more favorable to rebels, not more favorable than now, but they just have to be in a position where conditions favor them, or whatever objectives the rebels wish to gain...
but IDK what objectives rebels wish to gain.

The objectives are actually easy, make sure that Ukraine has no means to restart a war in Donbass for a while and gaining in the process enough economic room as to force Ukraine to stop this war and start dealing with NVR. That can't be done with the current NVR territory, which is a nuisance for Ukropia at best.

on liveuamap this is said to be outgoing artillery from Donetsk

Rodinazombie wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Dforce wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Let's recall Debaltsevo...

Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it  happened just after the Minsk II deal.

The same conditions are not there now.

Deal done fast? It took Almost two months to react to idiotic probe attacks from Ukropia at Donetsk Intl and break the wedge at Debalstevo. Are you guys following the same war as I or is this senile amnesia?

The conditions now are even better, Ukraine is shelling civilians and international organizations just reported in the simplest terms Ukraine's breach of Minsk agreement.
Idiot Turchynov goes on the Line of Contact parading in front of heavy weaponry that's supposed to be some 30 km out of there.

... Not really ideal conditions for an innocent self-defense scheme...

I don't know what's going to happen or when, but I feel like Ukraine has to just make one mistake, or conditions have to be more favorable to rebels, not more favorable than now, but they just have to be in a position where conditions favor them, or whatever objectives the rebels wish to gain...
but IDK what objectives rebels wish to gain.

What the rebels wish to gain is irrelevant, whats important is what russia will allow them to gain. The only priority they should have is pushing back ukie arty as far back as possible.

The 'aims' of this war are long out of the rebel hands now, and they arent the end game. End game is in kiev.

Well, the rebels, or Russia, or both together, may have more objectives other than just pushing back ukie arty as far as possible.

I'm not sure that the "aims" of this war are out of the rebels hands, because they are essential to whatever whomever wishes to do. If whomever wishes to use them, or work with them to do it. That means both the rebels, both military, and all the civilians are not unimportant to Russia. Yes, a lot of civilians have been killed by Ukrainian Armed Forces shelling, but there is a core of civilians still living there, and who refuse to leave, and Russia, or whomever has invested a lot. Many or most say not enough, or very little, but you can see all the aid sent, all the infrastructure, etc. re-built, seeds, farm equipment, school supplies, etc. sent, all the training, etc. etc. etc.

Do you think that this war will be the first war in human history that never ends?

Sweden and Germany fought a war in 17th century that lasted something like 30 years. Do you see this war outlasting that? Do you see the junta still shelling downtown Donetsk in 2050 while the NAF is still adhering the Minsk agreement in 2050 and the West is still threatening Russia with new sanctions if the NAF advances?

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Cassad wrote:На ресурсах хунты сообщают с ссылкой на ОБСЕ, что в Донецк переброшены 11 РСЗО "Град" ВСН.

Translation: Junta's sources report (quoting OSCE) that the NAF has positioned 11 "Grad" installations near Donetsk.

Always nice to see the confirmation that OSCE is acting as a de facto spy organization. I think we've never been closer to resuming the war as today.

EDIT: Judging by this map ( http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivanov/71733898/42710/42710_original.jpg ) it'd be wise to completely destroy VSU's positions at Svetlodarsk. It's got a cauldron written all over it.

That's a good post. If there was a like button, I'd certainly like it.

Svitlodarsk was a good cauldron "lid" then, now it's a hindrance, since NAF would have to cross it.

What should happen, though, should be a clearing of Krasniy Partizan and a definite streamlining of the border area near Stanitsa Luhanska.

A complete rectification of the line of contact all along the Volnovakha-Makedonova axis.

Flagship Victory wrote:on liveuamap this is said to be outgoing artillery from Donetsk

I smell baloney. The shockwave from cannon fire is very different from a shell explosion. Yet we hear the typical
car alarm response far from the alleged firing point. Looks to me like this video is misdirection and the actual shell
impacts are not being filmed (i.e. the camera is pointing towards the darkest point with the least amount of light
from the shell explosions).

The Kiev regime is desperate to prove that the rebels are using civilians as cover and to justify their own war criminal
shelling. So this video is Kiev's attempt at propaganda via the web.

KoTeMoRe wrote:The objectives are actually easy, make sure that Ukraine has no means to restart a war in Donbass for a while and gaining in the process enough economic room as to force Ukraine to stop this war and start dealing with NVR. That can't be done with the current NVR territory, which is a nuisance for Ukropia at best.

I agree. Look at Syria. Devastated by more than 4 years of nonstop full scale war and it's still going strong. In Ukraine war is very very small and no ground offensive. To think that Ukraine can collapse, even within a few years time, is pipe dream. Ukraine is a pretty big country and it's not going to collapse, economically or otherwise. Even if NAF goes on the offensive and the war is in full swing, it is unlikely Maidan would collapse considering Assad is still going strong despite now reduced to a small part of Syria.

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:Yeah, it is better to stop caring about Donbass civilians. It does no good and just gets your blood pressure up.

You and I are not ethnic Russians, so why should this war have anything to do with our blood pressures?

We have our western way of fighting war, shock and awe, an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth. Em Russians have their eastern way of fighting war, a way we can never understand. Let them fight their way and stop worrying about it.

I was really sad and pissed off over a year ago when the first civilians died in Mariupol and Sloviansk. Now I can't bring myself up feeling sad about it anymore. Too much has happened. Maybe if there will be a mass civilian casualty I will be angry again and wishing Kiev and Lvov to be nuked.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Dforce wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Let's recall Debaltsevo...

Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it  happened just after the Minsk II deal.

The same conditions are not there now.

Deal done fast? It took Almost two months to react to idiotic probe attacks from Ukropia at Donetsk Intl and break the wedge at Debalstevo. Are you guys following the same war as I or is this senile amnesia?

The conditions now are even better, Ukraine is shelling civilians and international organizations just reported in the simplest terms Ukraine's breach of Minsk agreement.
Idiot Turchynov goes on the Line of Contact parading in front of heavy weaponry that's supposed to be some 30 km out of there.

... Not really ideal conditions for an innocent self-defense scheme...

I don't know what's going to happen or when, but I feel like Ukraine has to just make one mistake, or conditions have to be more favorable to rebels, not more favorable than now, but they just have to be in a position where conditions favor them, or whatever objectives the rebels wish to gain...
but IDK what objectives rebels wish to gain.

The objectives are actually easy, make sure that Ukraine has no means to restart a war in Donbass for a while and gaining in the process enough economic room as to force Ukraine to stop this war and start dealing with NVR. That can't be done with the current NVR territory, which is a nuisance for Ukropia at best.

Are you saying that you think the rebels need more territory?

No means to re start a war.....no conscripts? no money? no backing by USA, and EU? or NATO? citizens protesting war and conditions of country? Ukraine Armed Forces defeat...?

economic room...Ukraine in the toilet, and rebels doing better...???

Karl Haushofer wrote:Do you think that this war will be the first war in human history that never ends?

Sweden and Germany fought a war in 17th century that lasted something like 30 years. Do you see this war outlasting that? Do you see the junta still shelling downtown Donetsk in 2050 while the NAF is still adhering the Minsk agreement in 2050 and the West is still threatening Russia with new sanctions if the NAF advances?

This is a frozen conflict. So it is very likely it will not end even 100 years from now. But of course, by then Donetsk would be a pile of trash from bombardment with no one living there.

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:Do you think that this war will be the first war in human history that never ends?

Sweden and Germany fought a war in 17th century that lasted something like 30 years. Do you see this war outlasting that? Do you see the junta still shelling downtown Donetsk in 2050 while the NAF is still adhering the Minsk agreement in 2050 and the West is still threatening Russia with new sanctions if the NAF advances?

This is a frozen conflict. So it is very likely it will not end even 100 years from now. But of course, by then Donetsk would be a pile of trash from bombardment with no one living there.

So the West created an eternal war in Russia's backdoor and Russia's sphere of influence which will drain Russian resources for the next 100 years and give the West an excuse to sanction Russia for the next 100 years?

Greatest western success ever?

Well, hopefully the West will be finished by third world immigration in 100 years.

Karl Haushofer wrote:So the West created an eternal war in Russia's backdoor and Russia's sphere of influence which will drain Russian resources for the next 100 years and give the West an excuse to sanction Russia for the next 100 years?

Greatest western success ever?

Well, hopefully the West will be finished by third world immigration in 100 years.

100 years? Should be longer than that. If Russia is strong, Russia would send peacekeepers and that would end the war within a day. However Ukraine is backed by the US so that is not an option. The concerts shall continue. For sure in my lifetime I will not see the end of this war.

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:So the West created an eternal war in Russia's backdoor and Russia's sphere of influence which will drain Russian resources for the next 100 years and give the West an excuse to sanction Russia for the next 100 years?

Greatest western success ever?

Well, hopefully the West will be finished by third world immigration in 100 years.

100 years? Should be longer than that. If Russia is strong, Russia would send peacekeepers and that would end the war within a day. However Ukraine is backed by the US so that is not an option. The concerts shall continue.

But in 100 years the West will be finished by third world immigration (unless Trump is elected in 2016) so Russia can finally send in the peacekeepers in 2115 when the West has become too weak and irrelevant. It will be worth the wait. Too bad none of us will witness it though.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:So the West created an eternal war in Russia's backdoor and Russia's sphere of influence which will drain Russian resources for the next 100 years and give the West an excuse to sanction Russia for the next 100 years?

Greatest western success ever?

Well, hopefully the West will be finished by third world immigration in 100 years.

100 years? Should be longer than that. If Russia is strong, Russia would send peacekeepers and that would end the war within a day. However Ukraine is backed by the US so that is not an option. The concerts shall continue.

But in 100 years the West will be finished by third world immigration (unless Trump is elected in 2016) so Russia can send in the peacekeepers in 2115 when the West has become too weak and irrelevant. It will be worth the wait.

The west will never collapse from immigration. In the US alone there are more than 200 million non Hispanic whites and this number is slightly increasing.

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:So the West created an eternal war in Russia's backdoor and Russia's sphere of influence which will drain Russian resources for the next 100 years and give the West an excuse to sanction Russia for the next 100 years?

Greatest western success ever?

Well, hopefully the West will be finished by third world immigration in 100 years.

100 years? Should be longer than that. If Russia is strong, Russia would send peacekeepers and that would end the war within a day. However Ukraine is backed by the US so that is not an option. The concerts shall continue.

But in 100 years the West will be finished by third world immigration (unless Trump is elected in 2016) so Russia can send in the peacekeepers in 2115 when the West has become too weak and irrelevant. It will be worth the wait.

The west will never collapse from immigration. In the US alone there are more than 200 million non Hispanic whites and this number is slightly increasing.

Is it really so? I thought the number of whites is decreasing, not increasing. But it is the fact that the share of non-hispanic whites is decreasing fast and it will force the United States to spend more resources on wellfare which also makes them weaker economically and forces them to spend less on military.

And even if this proves to be false there is a chance that Yellowstone erupts or that a giant meteorite hits northern Atlantic.

EDIT: But yes, I agree that the non-Western world is too weak and lackadaisical to take out the West. It has to be either by internal weakening (through immigration) or a major natural disaster.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Is it really so? I thought the number of whites is decreasing, not increasing. But it is the fact that the share of non-hispanic whites is increasing fast and it will force the United States to spend more resources on wellfare which also makes them weaker economically and forces them to spend less on military.

And even if this proves to be false there is a chance that Yellowstone erupts or that a giant meteorite hits northern Atlantic.

EDIT: But yes, I agree that the non-Western world is too weak and lackadaisical to take out the West. It has to be either by internal weakening (through immigration) or a major natural disaster.

The proportion is decreasing, at 60% of US population, but the number is slightly increasing.

Russia is not weak. Only Putin is weak because he has two daughters no son and that made him soft. If I were Putin I would not do what he does. In fact, if I were Putin, there would have been no Maidan in the first place.

Flagship Victory wrote:
The proportion is decreasing, at 60% of US population, but the number is slightly increasing.

Well, white deaths outnumbered the white births in USA for the first time in 2013: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/white-deaths-outnumber-births-for-first-time/2013/06/13/3bb1017c-d388-11e2-a73e-826d299ff459_story.html

But I guess white immigration can offset this, right?

Anyway, the mestizo and asian population is increasing a lot faster than the white population in the USA. Hopefully the whites will be extinct in the USA by 2115 so Russia can finally send in the peacekeepers to Donbass.

Flagship Victory wrote:
Russia is not weak. Only Putin is weak because he has two daughters no son and that made him soft. If I were Putin I would not do what he does.

Russia acted in Crimea and South Ossetia. To be frank the Kremlin doesn't give too much value for Donbass. Therefore Kiev is permitted to destroy Donbass infrastructure and kill its population because Russia is not going to the one to rebuild it. Russia cannot send its peacekeepers because if Russia does that then the rebuilding of Donbass would be Russia's responsibility because Russian peacekeepers would be controlling the region.

Russia wants Donbass to stay in Ukraine but in Russia's own terms. The problem is that nobody knows how this will happen or how it is even possible. I doubt even Russia knows it. My opinion is that there are no cunning plans. Russia is maybe just waiting for Kiev to get tired of war and give up. Not gonna happen. Not in 100 years. Not ever.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Russia acted in Crimea and South Ossetia. To be frank the Kremlin doesn't give too much value for Donbass. Therefore Kiev is permitted to destroy Donbass infrastructure and kill its population because Russia is going to the one to rebuild it. Russia cannot send its peacekeepers because if Russia does that then the rebuilding of Donbass would be Russia's responsibility because Russian peacekeepers would be controlling the region.

Russia wants Donbass to stay in Ukraine but in Russia's own terms. The problem is that nobody knows how this will happen or how it is even possible. I doubt even Russia knows it. My opinion is that there are no cunning plans. Russia is maybe just waiting for Kiev to get tired of war and give up. Not gonna happen. Not in 100 years. Not ever.

And absorbing Crimea was a good thing for Russia? It was out of last resort. The world will never recognize Crimea as Russian territory. Sanctions on Crimea will never end. I can't imagine life in Crimea.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Dforce wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Let's recall Debaltsevo...

Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it  happened just after the Minsk II deal.

The same conditions are not there now.

Deal done fast? It took Almost two months to react to idiotic probe attacks from Ukropia at Donetsk Intl and break the wedge at Debalstevo. Are you guys following the same war as I or is this senile amnesia?

The conditions now are even better, Ukraine is shelling civilians and international organizations just reported in the simplest terms Ukraine's breach of Minsk agreement.
Idiot Turchynov goes on the Line of Contact parading in front of heavy weaponry that's supposed to be some 30 km out of there.

... Not really ideal conditions for an innocent self-defense scheme...

I don't know what's going to happen or when, but I feel like Ukraine has to just make one mistake, or conditions have to be more favorable to rebels, not more favorable than now, but they just have to be in a position where conditions favor them, or whatever objectives the rebels wish to gain...
but IDK what objectives rebels wish to gain.

The objectives are actually easy, make sure that Ukraine has no means to restart a war in Donbass for a while and gaining in the process enough economic room as to force Ukraine to stop this war and start dealing with NVR. That can't be done with the current NVR territory, which is a nuisance for Ukropia at best.

Are you saying that you think the rebels need more territory?

No means to re start a war.....no conscripts? no money? no backing by USA, and EU? or NATO? citizens protesting war and conditions of country? Ukraine Armed Forces defeat...?

economic room...Ukraine in the toilet, and rebels doing better...???

The problem with most of the elements you point forward is this. To relaunch hostilities, Ukraine needs two things:

1. Russia needs to drop NVR. Not going to happen...
2. Having a competent corps of officers. Far easier than point 1.

All the rest isn't going to change much here. If the current "Friends of Ukropia" (FU) were down to that tune, they would have shelled the said money and weapons...IN NUMBERS.

NAF needs to render useless the whole economic tissue of Eastern Ukraine. It is really a problem now that they control a chunk of the coal production, imagine controlling the whole of Donbass. That's the only way to have this done.

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:Russia acted in Crimea and South Ossetia. To be frank the Kremlin doesn't give too much value for Donbass. Therefore Kiev is permitted to destroy Donbass infrastructure and kill its population because Russia is going to the one to rebuild it. Russia cannot send its peacekeepers because if Russia does that then the rebuilding of Donbass would be Russia's responsibility because Russian peacekeepers would be controlling the region.

Russia wants Donbass to stay in Ukraine but in Russia's own terms. The problem is that nobody knows how this will happen or how it is even possible. I doubt even Russia knows it. My opinion is that there are no cunning plans. Russia is maybe just waiting for Kiev to get tired of war and give up. Not gonna happen. Not in 100 years. Not ever.

And absorbing Crimea was a good thing for Russia? It was out of last resort. The world will never recognize Crimea as Russian territory. Sanctions on Crimea will never end. I can't imagine life in Crimea.

Yes, absorbing Crimea was a good thing for Russia. Russia gained a lot and lost only 100-200 years worth of sanctions. After 100-200 years Crimea will still be Russia and sanctions have hopefully been lifted.

Karl Haushofer wrote:"Yes, absorbing Crimea was a good thing for Russia. Russia gained a lot and lost only 100-200 years worth of sanctions. After 100-200 years Crimea will still be Russia and sanctions have hopefully been lifted.

Fair enough