Ispan Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:28 am
Hi, I got banned for a few days from my usual haunt at the Spanish forum for telling some filthy German that he was lying about the war in Ukraine. It was worth it. Though it makes a bit harder to update my blog and monitor the situation.
As expected, the troop buildup grows, and so does the harassing fire with mortars. now adding tank cannon fire. Perhaps our Russian friends with access to sources from the frontline can confirm this, but I have reason to believe that the situation in the front line is actually worse than what the official communiqués of the Donetsk Republic says. Simply put because the Kremlin and their "partners" cannot publish that the truce only exists on paper and they downplay the continuous fighting. The reports I get straight from Russian translated by my contact from Chile, wich are mostly reports from local residents and some from militiamen describe usually more intense fighting than the official reports from Basurin.
Indirectly, sporadic shelling and skirmishing could not inflict the numbers of casualties the Ukrainians are known to be suffering, and also the Novorussians. I mean a hundred dead and killed a day, and that is not achieved with a few mortar bombs every now and then.
Another thing is that these official reports by Basurin are only a fraction of the troop buildup and deployment going on. In intelligence, what you don't see is as important if no more than what you actually see. I do suspect that if Novorussian intel is really good, what they report is only a fraction of what they do know, so in order not to reveal their intel and recon capabilities and keep the enemy guessing about how much of their dispositions is known. It could be possible that if the fighting is downplayed, so are intelligence reports on enemy movements in order to maintain the pretense that there is a ceasefire.
Of this last report, the things I find more significant and telltale clues of an attack in the making are the following:
1 - The tanks and armored vehicles, that is an obvious clue.
2 - The depoyment of the D-30 122mm howitzers. Artillery needs gun emplacements
3 - The ammunition trucks. All the rest of the deployments may be feints and posturing but the arrival of trucks with ammunition, fuel and supplies are always the most telltale sign of a serious attack being prepared.
http://tass.ru/en/world/840373
Ukrainian army redeploys 277 tanks, heavy artillery pieces to contact line — DPR
World
November 30, 16:18UTC+3
"The military-political leadership of Ukraine, taking advantage of the ceasefire regime, is actively building up forces and redeploying the troops all along the contact line," Basurin added.
MOSCOW, November 30. /TASS/. The Ukrainian armed forces over the past week have redeployed to the contact line in the southeast of the country 277 tanks and heavy artillery pieces, spokesman for the Defense Ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Eduard Basurin reported on Monday.
"The Donetsk republic’s reconnaissance units continue to fix the movement and concentration of military hardware along the entire contact line and violation by the Ukrainian side of the Minsk agreements on the withdrawal of heavy weapons," Basurin is quoted by the Donetsk news agency.
According to Basurin, the Ukrainian forces over the past week have moved military hardware to the separation line in various settlements in the areas of the cities of Gorlovka, Mariupol and Donetsk. The Ukrainian armed forces have concentrated at the contact line a total of 111 artillery pieces (including self-propelled artillery weapons, the BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), D-30 systems, 166 tanks, 147 infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers, 26 vehicles with ammunition and more than 660 troops, including members of the Ukrainian extremist organisation Right Sector the activity of which is banned in Russia.
"The military-political leadership of Ukraine, taking advantage of the ceasefire regime, is actively building up forces and redeploying the troops all along the contact line," Basurin added.
Basurin said earlier on Monday that the Ukrainian armed forces 91 times opened fire over the past week on the DPR territory. The shelling attacks were launched from mortars and tank weapons, he said. "I would like to draw the attention to the fact that over the past week the Ukrainian forces have 91 times violated the ceasefire regime," the Donetsk news agency quoted him as saying.
According to Basurin, about 370 mortar rounds of 82 mm and 120 mm calibre were fired on the DPR settlements and positions. "All the data on the violations were handed over to JCCC (the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination of the ceasefire regime in the east of Ukraine) and the OSCE Mission," the DPR Defence Ministry official said.
The DPR Defense Ministry reported earlier on Monday that the Ukrainian forces have 9 times violated the ceasefire regime in DPR over the past day.
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JohninMK
