Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues
GunshipDemocracy wrote:Then what should be Russia<s answer to invasion? just UN? arming Kurds and more stuff to SAA (although thy have not enough manpower to fight Turks)? Nevertheless probability of a full scale war Russia-Turkey I consider low.
zg18 wrote:Militarov wrote:"Developments on the Turkish-Syrian border give serious grounds to suspect that Ankara is planning a military invasion in Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
“We have serious grounds to suspect intensive preparations by Turkey for a military invasion on the territory of the sovereign state of Syria,” Major General Igor Konashenkov, Defense Ministry spokesman, told journalists.
“We are recording more and more signs of concealed preparations by the Turkish military,” he added."
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/331278-turkey-military-invasion-syria/
Putin`s trap for Erdogan is working, you have to be blind not to see that Russian strategic goal is to force Turkish hand in Syria.
zg18 wrote:GunshipDemocracy wrote:Then what should be Russia<s answer to invasion? just UN? arming Kurds and more stuff to SAA (although thy have not enough manpower to fight Turks)? Nevertheless probability of a full scale war Russia-Turkey I consider low.
Create Afghanistan for Turkey in Syria, Erdogan has created to many enemies and a lot of "people" want too see him weakened. There is nothing better than Syrian quagmire.
zg18 wrote:GunshipDemocracy wrote:Then what should be Russia<s answer to invasion? just UN? arming Kurds and more stuff to SAA (although thy have not enough manpower to fight Turks)? Nevertheless probability of a full scale war Russia-Turkey I consider low.
Create Afghanistan for Turkey in Syria, Erdogan has created to many enemies and a lot of "people" want too see him weakened. There is nothing better than Syrian quagmire.
par far wrote:Sorry zg18, I don't get what the trap is and what you are referring to?
They at least here invested some money.
JohninMK wrote:The strategic importance of yesterday's 'closing the gap'.
KoTeMoRe wrote:Acheron's on the money.
Eastern Turkey isn some spots looks already like Syria.
BTW, Germany is set to spend well over $600 million on hosting migrants in hotels, I wonder when the legions of castrated European men will put pressure on the Turks to host migrants in their 'ghost hotels'? For that matter I wonder when the europussies will hold the Turks accountable for their carcinogenic 'Grey Wolf' network? 
Saudi troops ready to participate in the ground of anti-terrorist operation on the territory of Syria within the framework of the coalition led by the United States, said the representative of "the Arabian coalition" to assist the government of Yemen General Ahmad Asiri. It is reported TASS with reference to the media.
"Saudi Arabia is ready for ground operation as part of an international coalition in Syria led by the United States," writes the Agency.
JohninMK wrote:They would be mad if they did, but then logic has not featured in some of their recent actions. If Turkey invades Syria it will presumably be with a minimum of CAS, to reduce the risk of direct conflict with the RUAF, and its objective will be to drive a wedge south to stop the Kurds heading further west cutting off IS.
In the short term the main Syrian/Russian reaction would probably be in the UNSC. Unless a RuAF aircraft is downed, which will be regarded, after all the warnings, as a declaration of war. As such it will be Turkey on its own without NATO.
No doubt Russia would hit TAF bases hard. If they included Incirlik on the list would be interesting given the ton of NATO stuff there. Perhaps we need to watch for a drawdown there.
GunshipDemocracy wrote:All hurried to "share the pie": Saudi Arabia has declared its readiness for war in Syria
https://russian.rt.com/article/146398
Saudi troops ready to participate in the ground of anti-terrorist operation on the territory of Syria within the framework of the coalition led by the United States, said the representative of "the Arabian coalition" to assist the government of Yemen General Ahmad Asiri. It is reported TASS with reference to the media.
"Saudi Arabia is ready for ground operation as part of an international coalition in Syria led by the United States," writes the Agency.JohninMK wrote:They would be mad if they did, but then logic has not featured in some of their recent actions. If Turkey invades Syria it will presumably be with a minimum of CAS, to reduce the risk of direct conflict with the RUAF, and its objective will be to drive a wedge south to stop the Kurds heading further west cutting off IS.
In the short term the main Syrian/Russian reaction would probably be in the UNSC. Unless a RuAF aircraft is downed, which will be regarded, after all the warnings, as a declaration of war. As such it will be Turkey on its own without NATO.
No doubt Russia would hit TAF bases hard. If they included Incirlik on the list would be interesting given the ton of NATO stuff there. Perhaps we need to watch for a drawdown there.
But didn´t Putin warned afer S-400 installation: let them fly? So every Turkish plans would not cross border. as for land forces they might come as pace makers to bring relief to refugees bomber by Putin/Assad/Hitler. Regardless of facts western ministry of truth will sell such version. Now question shooting down Turkish plane will be war in hot phase?
As for trap: Turkey with nationalist support may be ready to accept couple thousand of dead bodies for capturing and holding Aleppo/Mosul/Kurdistan? what then?
"The invasion of Turkish troops in Syria could set back the situation in the years ago. First of all, it at the root will kill the very possibility of inter-Syrian negotiations. There is no doubt that the Kurds will react negatively to such a move. In short, begins "the war of all against all", the consequences of which predict no one will be taken", — said the Klintsevich reporters.
Eventually lose and Turkey, "unless, of course, does not mean parochial interests of its current ruling elite," said the Senator.
"Of course, we understand that Turkey due to its history, current circumstances is the most bratty child in the NATO family. But the founding fathers of the North Atlantic bloc quite enough leverage to talk some sense into him," said the Klintsevich.
According to the MP, the statement of the official representative of the Russian defense Ministry about the presence of covert training of the Turkish armed forces to action in Syria "should be considered not only as a warning to Turkey but NATO".
par far wrote:
As for trap: Turkey with nationalist support may be ready to accept couple thousand of dead bodies for capturing and holding Aleppo/Mosul/Kurdistan? what then?
Turkey may be ready to accept couple of thousand dead bodies but are they ready to accept couple of hundred thousand dead bodies and a major civil war for the next foreseeable future? Same goes for Saudis. I don't think Russia went into this war without a plan for each scenario, they probably have a plan for everything and then a plan A and plan B for each individual situation.
par far wrote:Turkey may be ready to accept couple of thousand dead bodies but are they ready to accept couple of hundred thousand dead bodies and a major civil war for the next foreseeable future? Same goes for Saudis. I don't think Russia went into this war without a plan for each scenario, they probably have a plan for everything and then a plan A and plan B for each individual situation.
JohninMK wrote:T......................
In the short term the main Syrian/Russian reaction would probably be in the UNSC. Unless a RuAF aircraft is downed, which will be regarded, after all the warnings, as a declaration of war. As such it will be Turkey on its own without NATO.
No doubt Russia would hit TAF bases hard. If they included Incirlik on the list would be interesting given the ton of NATO stuff there. Perhaps we need to watch for a drawdown there.
"KoTeMoRe wrote:........................
That's why you simply don't leave stray dogs like Erdogan roam around, you either put them down or kick them out.
GunshipDemocracy wrote:Klintsevich: a Turkish invasion of Syria would make negotiations impossible
http://ria.ru/syria/20160204/1369859292.html
"The invasion of Turkish troops in Syria could set back the situation in the years ago. First of all, it at the root will kill the very possibility of inter-Syrian negotiations. There is no doubt that the Kurds will react negatively to such a move. In short, begins "the war of all against all", the consequences of which predict no one will be taken", — said the Klintsevich reporters.
Eventually lose and Turkey, "unless, of course, does not mean parochial interests of its current ruling elite," said the Senator.
"Of course, we understand that Turkey due to its history, current circumstances is the most bratty child in the NATO family. But the founding fathers of the North Atlantic bloc quite enough leverage to talk some sense into him," said the Klintsevich.
According to the MP, the statement of the official representative of the Russian defense Ministry about the presence of covert training of the Turkish armed forces to action in Syria "should be considered not only as a warning to Turkey but NATO".par far wrote:
As for trap: Turkey with nationalist support may be ready to accept couple thousand of dead bodies for capturing and holding Aleppo/Mosul/Kurdistan? what then?
Turkey may be ready to accept couple of thousand dead bodies but are they ready to accept couple of hundred thousand dead bodies and a major civil war for the next foreseeable future? Same goes for Saudis. I don't think Russia went into this war without a plan for each scenario, they probably have a plan for everything and then a plan A and plan B for each individual situation.
hundred thousands? only if Kurds are well armed and trained but thenpindostanUSA would treat it as an aggression against NATO and Ukraine, Poland an Baltics.
KoTeMoRe wrote:Israel will throw any Muslim leadership to the dogs @ any given time. So really not exactly new from big Iz.
The Other issue with Turkey trying to pull a "Russia not in Ukraine" in Syria has three issues.
1. They are going to infiltrate from rather hostile areas of Turkey in hostile areas in Syria (Latakia/Afrin/Rojava). This alone is going to make a lot of noise. The Russian were ironically among their own when they intervened in Ukraine.
2. There is going to be a stray Tochka or S400 on those attempts to "infiltrate". It has already happened (Lots of MHP goons have been killed by the Russians since 4 months). This time is going to be "official".
3. There will not be a NATO approval to this non-sense. It's not shooting a Russian plane is going "all in" and getting Klub'ed' from the Caspian leaving traces of intervention. Because unlike NATO who didn't went all in for Ukraine, Russia did for Syria. If Turkey gets caught, they'll have to bite the pillow or NATO will have to doom themselves into an open "aggression". This is exactly the thing the Americans did not wanted to see happening in Syria. But as they lacked decisiveness to fight Assad openly (red lines comrades) they're now simply cornered between a pocket WW3 or utter humiliation of the same alliance that is supposed to protect America's backyard worldwide.
That's why you simply don't leave stray dogs like Erdogan roam around, you either put them down or kick them out.
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