Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

franco wrote:

Kimppis wrote:So does the retirement of those MiG-29s mean that the number of fighters in service will decrease? So if I understood correctly, they are getting replaced by 29SMTs, Su-30SMs and MiG-35s (in the near future), but is that enough?

There are only 3 front line squadrons (>50) left of the older Mig-29 at two bases and they are due to be replaced by at least 52 Su-30SM, Su-35S and Mig-29SMT. All of the replacements are multi-role aircraft from 2 to 5 times more effective per plane then the old ones.  

But they had something like 200-300 29s in service a few years ago... So those are going to be replaced by only 50 fighters?

Kimppis wrote:

franco wrote:

Kimppis wrote:So does the retirement of those MiG-29s mean that the number of fighters in service will decrease? So if I understood correctly, they are getting replaced by 29SMTs, Su-30SMs and MiG-35s (in the near future), but is that enough?

There are only 3 front line squadrons (>50) left of the older Mig-29 at two bases and they are due to be replaced by at least 52 Su-30SM, Su-35S and Mig-29SMT. All of the replacements are multi-role aircraft from 2 to 5 times more effective per plane then the old ones.  

But they had something like 200-300 29s in service a few years ago... So those are going to be replaced by only 50 fighters?

The Su-30SM's have already replaced the Mig-29's at Domna. Most left are with training units or in reserve now. I suspect by the end of 2016 there are 50 Mig-29SMT in front line units and about 70 other -29's left in training, testing and demonstration units.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:Great contribution Franco, enjoyed reading that. What is currently in Kalingrad?

A squadron each of Su-27P's and Su-24M/MR's.

Franco, I just read your post on page 6 (again):

franco wrote:If all goes according to present plans and schedules, expect to see the following numbers of operational Combat squadrons by the end of 2020.

Air Force

7-8 squadrons Su-25SM3
2 squadrons Su-25SM2
2-3 squadrons Su-24M2
2-3 squadrons Su-24MR
9-10 squadrons Su-34
3 squadrons Mig-29S
3 squadrons Mig-29SMT
2 squadrons Mig-35
7-8 squadrons Mig-31BM
6 squadrons Su-27SM2
1 squadron Su-27SM3
4 squadrons Su-30SM
7 squadrons Su-35S
1-3 squadrons T-50
2 squadrons Tu-22M3
2 squadrons Tu-22M3M
2-3 squadrons Tu-95MSM
1 squadron Tu-160M

Naval Aviation

2 squadrons Mig-29K
1 squadron Su-33M
3 squadrons Su-30SM
2 squadrons Tu-142M
3 squadrons Il-38N

A squadron has 12 aircraft plus 2-4 spares.

If my math is any way correct, that is around 600+ fighters (including MiG-31s, but not Su-34s). So combat squadrons will only have modernized aircraft in 2020-21? What is going to happen to the remaining Su-27Ps? Training squadrons will still have them? And is that kind of split comparable to other airforces? Like does the US Air Force have considerable amount of its fighters in training squadrons? I mean... how combat capable are they?

You don't expect them to order another 60-75 Su-30s? A total of around... 150?

1- that list was before the announcement that another 60-75 Su-30SM's would be ordered.
2- there is a contract to convert 36 Su-27P's to Su-27SM's. The Russians are focusing on having multi-role capabilities in their fighters now.
3- I would have to research your question in regards to the USAF but I suspect it would be similar. The USA is unique in it's ready reserve, in this case the Air National Guard, which would continue flying the older versions on a part time basis.
4. Remember a lot of these aircraft were made 20 years or more ago and not maintained very well until just in the last 5-8 years. In 2009, at any one moment only 48% of the aircraft in the Russian Air Force were capable of flying.

franco wrote:1- that list was before the announcement that another 60-75 Su-30SM's would be ordered.
2- there is a contract to convert 36 Su-27P's to Su-27SM's. The Russians are focusing on having multi-role capabilities in their fighters now.
3- I would have to research your question in regards to the USAF but I suspect it would be similar. The USA is unique in it's ready reserve, in this case the Air National Guard, which would continue flying the older versions on a part time basis.
4. Remember a lot of these aircraft were made 20 years or more ago and not maintained very well until just in the last 5-8 years. In 2009, at any one moment only 48% of the aircraft in the Russian Air Force were capable of flying.

4. Yeah, I know. I was still expecting some of them to stay in service until atleast 2025 or so. (And I guess that will be the case, when you include the training squadrons.)

You expect them to replace the remaining Su-24s with Su-34s by... 2025? So they would have around 200 of them in total.

And thanks for answering my questions. Some great info.

franco wrote:If all goes according to present plans and schedules, expect to see the following numbers of operational Combat squadrons by the end of 2020.

Air Force

7-8 squadrons Su-25SM3
2 squadrons Su-25SM2
2-3 squadrons Su-24M2
2-3 squadrons Su-24MR
9-10 squadrons Su-34
3 squadrons Mig-29S
3 squadrons Mig-29SMT
2 squadrons Mig-35
7-8 squadrons Mig-31BM
6 squadrons Su-27SM2
1 squadron Su-27SM3
4 squadrons Su-30SM
7 squadrons Su-35S
1-3 squadrons T-50
2 squadrons Tu-22M3
2 squadrons Tu-22M3M
2-3 squadrons Tu-95MSM
1 squadron Tu-160M

Naval Aviation

2 squadrons Mig-29K
1 squadron Su-33M
3 squadrons Su-30SM
2 squadrons Tu-142M
3 squadrons Il-38N

A squadron has 12 aircraft plus 2-4 spares.

Does anyone know how many aircraft ontop of this (and extra builds/upgrades) there would be "in reserve" with a reasonable chance of being salvageable for full combat duties?

You expect them to replace the remaining Su-24s with Su-34s by... 2025? So they would have around 200 of them in total.

Take a look at the Su-24M's left;

Naval Aviation

Novofedorivka NAB - 1 sqdn in the process of being replaced with Su-30SM. Completed in 2016.
Chernyakhovsk NAB - 1 sqdn. Expect to also be replaced with Su-30SM.

Aerospace

Monchegorsk AB - 1 sqdn. Would hope Su-34 replaces but it will not be immediate.
Marinovka AB - 1 sqdn.*
Gvardeiskyy AB - 1 sqdn.*
* After the 3 sqdns from Morozovsk were replaced with Su-34, the best aircraft were transferred to Gvardeiskyy (1 sqdn) to form a joint aviation attack regiment with a sqdn of Su-25SM's in Crimea. And a second sqdn was sent to Marinovka, which was a two sqdn regiment of the Su-24MR reconnaissance plane. Apparently there were only about 1 sqdn of these left airworthy. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Mig-35s end up at one of these units.
Chelyabinsk AB - 2 sqdns. This is the last unit I expect to see switch to the Su-34 under the present orders.
Khurba AB - 3 sqdns. Will be the next to convert to the Su-34.

Su-24MR - technically 7 sqdns still active but active aircraft would be much less. Their role is being taken over by UAV's or if manned aircraft are needed a recon pod has been developed for the Su-34. Have seen reports that the MoD doesn't see much future for them after 2020. It will probably be a little longer but they are definitely on the way out. As are the Su-24M's which are now going to wear out a lot faster with the constant action in Syria.

Does anyone know how many aircraft on top of this (and extra builds/upgrades) there would be "in reserve" with a reasonable chance of being salvageable for full combat duties?

#1 - I think anything that could be upgraded will be by then.
#2 - Don't forget that the Air Force went about 15 years getting no new aircraft and not maintaining the ones they did have properly due to financial restraints. The largest reserve of Russian aircraft is at Lipetsk. Take a look via SAT maps, the aircraft on the tarmac closest the buildings are the trainers. The rows on the next tarmac over are those in reserve and you will notice the dismantling of some. This is actually happening at most bases with aircraft in storage and others being dismantled.

Aircraft Repair JSC Aviaremont reports since 2011 have repaired 552 aircraft and 384 helicopters for the Ministry of Defense. Add the ~ 500 new and factory rebuilt aircraft plus ~ 400 new and factory rebuilt helicopters and that explains why Shoigu now claims a 85% aircraft serviceability rate up from the 48% in 2009. A disposal program for old aircraft also would contribute.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1605923.html

Always enjoying Franco's number crunching, good work as always. Speaking of numbers, i have just stumbeld upon this, the most detailed and recent OOB i've found so far. I know there are a few errors, for instance surely Kushevskaya has legacy MiG-29s, not SMTs, and not sure what to say about those Su-25SM3 listed for Primorsko-Akhtarsk, though i seem to remember reading that indeed SM3 deliveries started a few years years ago (need to check the exact year) BUT not to full standard, ie without the full self defence suite and perhaps other elements.

http://milkavkaz.livejournal.com/48665.html

mack8 wrote:Always enjoying Franco's number crunching, good work as always. Speaking of numbers, i have just stumbeld upon this, the most detailed and recent OOB i've found so far. I know there are a few errors, for instance  surely Kushevskaya has legacy MiG-29s, not SMTs, and not sure what to say about those Su-25SM3 listed for Primorsko-Akhtarsk, though i seem to remember reading that indeed SM3 deliveries  started a few years years ago (need to check the exact year) BUT not to full standard, ie without the full self defence suite and perhaps other elements.

http://milkavkaz.livejournal.com/48665.html

Again with not completely accurate but high. Great find and includes the complete Armed forces in blog. Thanks for sharing.

     

I've been perusing closely over this OOB last night, i can't find anything about the squadron at Erebuni, unless i've missed it in the text somehow?
PS: Nevermind i found it, it's on another OOB page:
http://milkavkaz.livejournal.com/50019.html

Man this site is really a gold mine.

mack8 wrote:

I've been perusing closely over this OOB last night, i can't find anything about the squadron at Erebuni, unless i've missed it in the text somehow?
PS: Nevermind i found it, it's on another OOB page:
http://milkavkaz.livejournal.com/50019.html

Man this site is really a gold mine.

It was a great find

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fmilkavkaz.livejournal.com%2F50592.html&sandbox=1


Just to be fair to everyone. Site similar to where RussianWarfare left off.

54°46'23.64"N 20°24'32.44"E on Google earth. Russian military base in Kaliningrad.

Why all these planes are outside and not in bunckers ?

Are they all in service or is it a reserve base (we can see a lot of helicopters blades) ?

Isos wrote: 54°46'23.64"N  20°24'32.44"E on Google earth. Russian military base in Kaliningrad.

Why all these planes are outside and not in bunckers ?

Are they all in service or is it a reserve base (we can see a lot of helicopters blades) ?

1. very few RuAF are in bunkers. They were built for Mig-21's and Mig-23's. Next generation wouldn't fit. New prefab hangers are planned.
2. the helos with props would be in service, the remainder mostly storage. That Google map SAT image is from a year ago while the runway was being rebuilt. The active aircraft were flying out of Chernyakhovsk at that time

Isn't it dangerous to keep most of your planes outside ?

An attack like Israel did in the 6 days war would be very significant even for a big army like russia's.

BTW, do you have some characteristics on russian bunkers ?
I've read somewhere that Iraqi's were the must solid but they were penetreted during the golf war easily by US bombs.

Isos wrote:Isn't it dangerous to keep most of your planes outside ?

An attack like Israel did in the 6 days war would be very significant even for a big army like russia's.

BTW, do you have some characteristics on russian bunkers ?
I've read somewhere that Iraqi's were the must solid but they were penetreted during the golf war easily by US bombs.

The present thinking is to disperse your aircraft over multiple airfields and appropriate highway locations in case of war. The Iraq war proved the uselessness of the harden bunkers.
The present plans for the modernization of the Russian military airfields includes prefab hangers but the redoing of the runways and facilities by 2020 has first priority.

The present aircraft won't fit into the Russian bunkers, you may see an occasional aircraft half in a bunker.

George1 wrote:Probably this base will also receive in future Naval aviation Su-30SM

Would certainly expect the Su-24M's at Chernyakhovsk to be replaced with Su-30SM's and maybe the Su-27P's at this base also.

http://eng.itogi2015.mil.ru/quality2015

REPORT ON RESULTS ON THE RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY ACTIVITIES FOR 2015

On August 1, 2015, the Aerospace Forces were established on the basis of the Air Force and the Aerospace Defence Forces.

General purpose forces have reached the higher level of quality
Necessary structure changings have already been conducted.

All the forces and means of this branch of the Russian Armed Forces have been concentrated in the unified control system for task performance in the aerospace field.

According to the State Defence Order 2015, the Aerospace Forces have been equipped with 243 modern aircraft, 90 air defence missile systems and complexes, 208 radar stations.

In total, the Aerospace Forces have been fitted with modern armament by 52%.

afaik, the current plans for 2015 deliveries are:

10mig29k
8mig29smt
16 su34
14 su35
5 su30m2
27 su30sm


What about 2016 deliveries?

su30m2 deliveries should be over, no?
anyother su35 contract hasnt been signed yet and other buyers may'be gotten the production slots.
mig29k programme will be finished,
8 more mig29smt will remain for 2016

So... roughly similar number of su34 and su30sm may be expected?
For a total of some 50-60 tactical combat aircraft delivered to air forces during 2016?

eridan wrote:afaik, the current plans for 2015 deliveries are:

10mig29k
8mig29smt
16 su34
14 su35
5 su30m2
27 su30sm


What about 2016 deliveries?

su30m2 deliveries should be over, no?
anyother su35 contract hasnt been signed yet and other buyers may'be gotten the production slots.
mig29k programme will be finished,
8 more mig29smt will remain for 2016

So... roughly similar number of su34 and su30sm may be expected?
For a total of some 50-60 tactical combat aircraft delivered to air forces during 2016?

There will be 8 Mig-29SMT and 9 Su-30SM left to deliver plus 16-18 Su-34 in 2016 on the present contracts, unless new orders are made.