Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

GarryB wrote:Yeah... of course... they can put the Tu-160 back into production by next tuesday... just like NASA can whack out a half a dozen new Space Shuttles in 6 months... or not.

It's much more than that, hence the noted delay.

The box structure for the swing wing on the Tu-160 was made of titanium and the factory that made that box structure is now located in the Ukraine.

Of course that same factory is likely in ruins and unable to make anything at all right now... but that is irrelevant.

Actually I remember in the 1990s there was talk of restarting production of the Tu-160 simply because having 15 or 16 was never going to be a viable force and lots of so called experts said it was impossible because the technology to make them was lost and it would be too expensive to develop again.

Of course the clever part here is that they are not building a factory just to make Tu-160s... they are making a factory to make heavy bombers and large aircraft so the money invested is not just going to be used to make 50 or 60 Blackjacks, but also however many PAK DAs too.

For the Russians they are going to build a brand new factory with all the latest tooling and equipment to build new stealthy bombers and they are going to use that factory to first do a digital redesign of the Tu-160 with upgrades in composites and electronics and stealth changes and new structures and then they are going to make PAK DAs in the same factory likely with as many components unified as possible... they both should be stealthy and they both should be aerodynamic and both will be very new.

The fact that they will be making another 50 odd Tu-160s means they can delay the entry of the PAK DA so that new technologies can be added at the design stage that might have otherwise have had to have been added on later.

In my opinion by the mid 2025 period they will have greatly improved engine technology and a flying wing with a tail surface able to super cruise would offer the best of both worlds in terms of high speed without high fuel consumption and high cost...

Isos wrote:If one of these aircrafts proved its reliability in the last year, its the Su-24. Heavily used in Syria, Electronic warefare against Donald Cook, simulated attacks against Donald. Very nice Aircraft which completed the small numbers of Su-34 in the last decade and in Syria. Hope they will keep them.

The duo Cheap simple Aircraft with an exppensive and superior Aircraft is well used by Russia. They adapted this strategy for the military transition between USSR and Russia in every aspects of their military : (tanks t-72/90 + t14), aviation (Su 27/30 + Pak fa Su35 or Ka52 + Mi 24/28), naval (upcoming new frigates and destroyer with cheap corvetes and old modernized vessels) more special force with less conscripts...

With their strategy of big concentrated attacks, its better than having just small amount of very good stuff. 1000 T-72+250 T-14 is better than 400 t-14.


Do you know if there are some Tu-22 still in service franco ? It was a very good concept of cheap bomber but not very good according to pilot to fly. A modernized version with todays flight controls would make it a good bomber which could help Tu-22M in attacking naval carriers and bombing mission.


Mixing cheap in big numbers with quality in low numbers is a very good tactic. The logistic and the cost of maintenance however would be great.

I was thinking that all the Tu-22 of the oldest variant would be retired at this point, but some, a few remain still in the reserve:

http://russianplanes.net/planelist/Tupolev/Tu-22

Isos wrote:

eehnie wrote:

Isos wrote:

About the Tu-160 there are reports that talk about 50 units to be ordered.

Looking at the numbers, the reserves of Strategic Bombers are still far from a saturation. It would be necessary between 50 and 60 units to reach the saturation until the degree that today have the Interceptors. Then this the new order of production for the Tu-160 would replace the Tu-95 in the active service, but the Tu-95 (47 active and 12 in the reserve according to decent sources) would remain in the reserve, to complete the current fleet until the saturation of the reserve. The cathegory of Strategic Bomber has been in question for some decades, and the required production of Tu-160 was not completedd at the time. But the concept is proving to be still modern and useful as military concept, and the production is being restarted in the short-mid term. The new production line should be active by 2019-2020, and the production of the aircraft can remain until 2030 aproximately.

The Tu-PAK-DA needs still a lot of research and development. I hope to see the first unit by 2025, but the serial production surely will not be ready until 2030. And then yes, the orders of the Tu-PAK-DA will be likely mean a total decommission of the Tu-92, and a bigger presence of the Tu-22 in the reserve.

Tu-160 are very expensive. If the pak da is meant to replace them, it will be even more expensive. So I don't think they will replace Tu-22M with it. Their role is not the same. Tu-22M are more tactical bombers used for conventionnal bombing and Tu-160 strategic bombers armed with nuks. Actually they should make 2 pak da one "little" and one "big".

The Tu-PAK-FA will not replace the Tu-160. It will follow the Tu-160 at production level, but both aircrafts will remain together in the Russian fleet. If I would have to say which aircraft will be replaced by the Tu-PAK-FA I would say the Tu-95/142, that at the time likely will be only in the reserve.

In adition to the saturation of the current fleet of strategic bombers, it is likely to see the numbers of active and reserve strategic bombers increased by interation with the maritime patrol fleet.

That's the problem. Even the big military budget of USSR wasn't enough for a lot of Tu-160. If the Pak-Da (not Fa) is at the same price than Tu-160 Russia won't build them a lot and couldn't replace Tu-95 with them. Maybe it won't be as expensive as the Tu-160, a more conventional bomber with new technologies but not the last of te last super expensive tech.

Tu-PAK-DA yes. Russia has been finding a new ballance for its aircraft fleet after the end of the Soviet Union. In a situation of ballance Russia should be able to give enough maintenance to its fleet and to replace the oldest aircrafts by more advanced aircrafts of the same type, with the right rythm. I would say that Russia reached the new ballance in the refered to the combat aircrafts. Less sure in the refered to the military transport fleet.

franco wrote:
- 82 Su-30SM
- 89 Su-34

i have 81 Su-30SM and 91 Su-34

franco wrote:From various sources, deliveries in 2017 to include;

- 10 Su-35S
- 17 Su-30SM
- 4 Su-27SM3

and Su-27SM3 also? this means new-built Su-27SM?

Add 10 Yak-130 : http://tass.com/defense/934653

And

Add 16 Su-34 : http://tass.com/defense/934758

https://vpk.name/news/176707_vks_poluchat_17_istrebitelei_su30sm_i_10_uchebnoboevyih_yak130_v_2017_godu.html

ЦАМТО, 9 марта. Воздушно-космические силы (ВКС) России в 2017 году получат 17 новых многоцелевых истребителей Су-30СМ и 10 учебно-боевых самолетов Як-130. Об этом, как передает «РИА Новости», сообщил замминистра обороны РФ Юрий Борисов при посещении Иркутского авиационного завода.

«С заводом заключены длительные контракты, в соответствии с которыми в текущем году он должен сдать нам 17 самолетов Су-30СМ и 10 Як-130», – сказал Ю.Борисов.

RuAF will receive 17 Su-30SM and 10 Yak-130 from Irkut in 2017. I wonder how many will be delivered to NAVY in 2017.

Does anyone have the cost of the upgrade for Su-27's? And if it is low, why not just upgrade all of them?

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Does anyone have the cost of the upgrade for Su-27's?  And if it is low, why not just upgrade all of them?

Not sure about the cost. My understanding is that it will be an extensive rebuild with the present aircraft stripped down to the frame and rebuilt with as much Su-35S technology as possible. The biggest challenge will be finding enough good frames IMO.  

They are planning to introduce Pak Fa next year too. It's better to have new airframes than upgrading old ones, they also produce Su-30/35. They keep money for that and the upgrade is costly if they make them same lvl as Su-30SM, I'm not sure they can be at the same lvl than Su-35 which is totaly different from the basic Su-27.

They are forced to upgrade some of them because they thought Pak Fa would come in 2015 and they need a bigger air force than "normal" armies. It's cheaper than just buying Su-30/35.

franco wrote:Also due in 2017;

First 3 Yak-152  
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2486644.html

Plus 3 An-148's and 5 Il-76-90's.

Just 3 Yak-152 ?? Why not more it's a simple trainer aircraft, they can build hundreds of them in a year.

The problem is need.

If there was some urgent need... like all existing basic primary trainers are now in a foreign country and Russia can't get them back then they could build hundreds of Yaks to replace them really quickly... it would cost more but the alternative is no pilot training which has all its own costs.

The facts of the matter are that they already have basic trainers so they don't need or want hundreds of new ones right now.

No one is trained to fly them. There is no spare parts pool so if one gets damaged or needs maintainence then there is no one trained to work on them and no spare parts ready to fix them.

Putting three into service now and building them at a low rate means you don't need a big factory with thousands of employees that would be out of work in three years after they had made 500 aircraft. Big factories and lots of workers costs a lot of money.

A smaller factory with enough workers means they can be right for work for the next 5 years supplying the Russian AF and after that there should be some export orders too no doubt.

they can also make spare parts and train some RU AF personnel to fly and fix these planes ready for service.

As they slowly enter service older model planes can be either scrapped or passed on to allies in the hope they might eventually want new YAK trainers too.

No point in throwing out perfectly good trainers already in use... let them wear out... send them to operational units as airfield front line hacks for practise and personnel transfer.

Isos wrote:

franco wrote:Also due in 2017;

First 3 Yak-152  
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2486644.html

Plus 3 An-148's and 5 Il-76-90's.

Just 3 Yak-152 ?? Why not more it's a simple trainer aircraft, they can build hundreds of them in a year.

With the first fly of the aircraft in late 2016, it is really difficult to see serial production in 2017. A delivery of 3 aircrafts in 2017 means a fast ryth with the project in this phase.

For new combat aircraft we expect in 2017

10x Su-35
16x Su-34
17x Su-30SM (Air Force)
5x Su-30SM (Navy)

George1 wrote:For new combat aircraft we expect in 2017

10x Su-35
16x Su-34
17x Su-30SM (Air Force)
5x Su-30SM (Navy)

Good lord, only ten Su-35s? If they can't procure even half, let alone one, squadron per year then they're in big trouble.

On the other hand the strike fighter numbers are exactly right and positive.