Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

KiloGolf wrote:

George1 wrote:For new combat aircraft we expect in 2017

10x Su-35
16x Su-34
17x Su-30SM (Air Force)
5x Su-30SM (Navy)

Good lord, only ten Su-35s? If they can't procure even half, let alone one, squadron per year then they're in big trouble.

On the other hand the strike fighter numbers are exactly right and positive.

They are producing 20 per year but half are going to China right now.

The VKS commander looks ahead to 2025.

https://ria.ru/defense_safety/20170619/1496846957.html

Irkut Aviation Plant rolled out its 100th #Sukhoi Su-30SM serial 1420 which took to the sky today at Irkutsk,#Russia.Img of 95th serial 1415.

https://twitter.com/Russian_Defence/status/882701466468843521

Is this version for Russia only or they are also exporting this version?

marat wrote:Irkut Aviation Plant rolled out its 100th #Sukhoi Su-30SM serial 1420 which took to the sky today at Irkutsk,#Russia.Img of 95th serial 1415.

https://twitter.com/Russian_Defence/status/882701466468843521

Is this version for Russia only or they are also exporting this version?

They export 6 of them to Kazakhstan.

The challenges that faces Russian Airforce in 2025. Procrastination is unacceptable!

https://topwar.ru/120394-problemy-s-kotorymi-stolknutsya-vks-rossii-k-2025-godu-promedleniya-nedopustimy.html

A lot of chest thumping regarding AESA radar in that article.

Problem is, that isn't exactly true in anything they are saying.  In all AESA radars, they have (T/R Modules) a failure rate of 10% or greater, and their performance is purely based upon peak power (good luck running peak power 100% of the time.  It would have to be short bursts as the heat would destroy the T/R Modules), same like all radar.  But what it also fails to acknowledge is that the Su-35 and Su-30 would rely on their optical structure to deal with stealth more so than their radar.  AESA radar has been ready for quite some time in Russia but they have not been interested in it compared to the west.  Why is that?  I think it has more to do with what they try to make claims in.

Ultimately, all the EW capabilities of AESA can be countered with ECCM onboard systems.  They also over estimate how many 5th gen jets will actually be available, and to most understanings, most of the Typhoons and Rafale's do not sport AESA radar.

Until SAP2025 is out and what the ideal plans are, I doubt we know exactly all their plans.  So far, Mikoyan is very active in their new line of aircrafts, and a lot of emphasis on PAK FA.  Which the government may order more and less the other jets.

miketheterrible wrote:A lot of chest thumping regarding AESA radar in that article.

Problem is, that isn't exactly true in anything they are saying.  In all AESA radars, they have (T/R Modules) a failure rate of 10% or greater, and their performance is purely based upon peak power (good luck running peak power 100% of the time.  It would have to be short bursts as the heat would destroy the T/R Modules), same like all radar.  But what it also fails to acknowledge is that the Su-35 and Su-30 would rely on their optical structure to deal with stealth more so than their radar.  AESA radar has been ready for quite some time in Russia but they have not been interested in it compared to the west.  Why is that?  I think it has more to do with what they try to make claims in.

Ultimately, all the EW capabilities of AESA can be countered with ECCM onboard systems.  They also over estimate how many 5th gen jets will actually be available, and to most understanings, most of the Typhoons and Rafale's do not sport AESA radar.

Until SAP2025 is out and what the ideal plans are, I doubt we know exactly all their plans.  So far, Mikoyan is very active in their new line of aircrafts, and a lot of emphasis on PAK FA.  Which the government may order more and less the other jets.

That is why gallium nitride modules are going to be used. They have a much higher temperature tolerance and sensitivity. So they can be operated at
much lower power giving the same amplification of the signal. So much of the discussion is based on old information. Russian companies are not
sitting around and picking their noses when it comes to overcoming various problems in the hardware.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:A lot of chest thumping regarding AESA radar in that article.

Problem is, that isn't exactly true in anything they are saying.  In all AESA radars, they have (T/R Modules) a failure rate of 10% or greater, and their performance is purely based upon peak power (good luck running peak power 100% of the time.  It would have to be short bursts as the heat would destroy the T/R Modules), same like all radar.  But what it also fails to acknowledge is that the Su-35 and Su-30 would rely on their optical structure to deal with stealth more so than their radar.  AESA radar has been ready for quite some time in Russia but they have not been interested in it compared to the west.  Why is that?  I think it has more to do with what they try to make claims in.

Ultimately, all the EW capabilities of AESA can be countered with ECCM onboard systems.  They also over estimate how many 5th gen jets will actually be available, and to most understanings, most of the Typhoons and Rafale's do not sport AESA radar.

Until SAP2025 is out and what the ideal plans are, I doubt we know exactly all their plans.  So far, Mikoyan is very active in their new line of aircrafts, and a lot of emphasis on PAK FA.  Which the government may order more and less the other jets.

That is why gallium nitride modules are going to be used.   They have a much higher temperature tolerance and sensitivity.   So they can be operated at
much lower power giving the same amplification of the signal.   So much of the discussion is based on old information.   Russian companies are not
sitting around and picking their noses when it comes to overcoming various problems in the hardware.  

I am not entirely sure of Russian GaN other than some tidbits I have heard here and there. I know one company has worked on GaN modules for navy based radar.

What I find interesting was their advancement in developing GaAS modules that operate at much higher/lower temperatures and at much larger wattage (20W I believe) while also being significantly smaller so they can fit significantly more onto the same radar. This is also very very much cheaper than the GaN modules while being able to output similar performance and being smaller. If they can solve the cooling structures as well, they can have themselves an AESA radar much cheaper and better.

But of course, they are aiming at ROFAR which is something KRET will have ready by 2018/2019 for testing purposes. Sometimes I am wondering if that is what Russia is waiting for - just building new AESA based upon ROFAR technology rather than the current stuff. Although, I doubt that somewhat simply because they want an AESA radar and others are investing in newer technology in it besides photonics.

The other thing is too, while Su-35's Irbis E is indeed a PESA, it is also predominantly a hybrid radar and there are a lot of subsystems on such machine that more than likely makes the AESA radar on the western jets not as capable against it than against older mechanical steered or PESA radar.

Then there is the AESA L band elements on the Su-35.

miketheterrible wrote:

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:A lot of chest thumping regarding AESA radar in that article.

Problem is, that isn't exactly true in anything they are saying.  In all AESA radars, they have (T/R Modules) a failure rate of 10% or greater, and their performance is purely based upon peak power (good luck running peak power 100% of the time.  It would have to be short bursts as the heat would destroy the T/R Modules), same like all radar.  But what it also fails to acknowledge is that the Su-35 and Su-30 would rely on their optical structure to deal with stealth more so than their radar.  AESA radar has been ready for quite some time in Russia but they have not been interested in it compared to the west.  Why is that?  I think it has more to do with what they try to make claims in.

Ultimately, all the EW capabilities of AESA can be countered with ECCM onboard systems.  They also over estimate how many 5th gen jets will actually be available, and to most understanings, most of the Typhoons and Rafale's do not sport AESA radar.

Until SAP2025 is out and what the ideal plans are, I doubt we know exactly all their plans.  So far, Mikoyan is very active in their new line of aircrafts, and a lot of emphasis on PAK FA.  Which the government may order more and less the other jets.

That is why gallium nitride modules are going to be used.   They have a much higher temperature tolerance and sensitivity.   So they can be operated at
much lower power giving the same amplification of the signal.   So much of the discussion is based on old information.   Russian companies are not
sitting around and picking their noses when it comes to overcoming various problems in the hardware.  

I am not entirely sure of Russian GaN other than some tidbits I have heard here and there.  I know one company has worked on GaN modules for navy based radar.

What I find interesting was their advancement in developing GaAS modules that operate at much higher/lower temperatures and at much larger wattage (20W I believe) while also being significantly smaller so they can fit significantly more onto the same radar.  This is also very very much cheaper than the GaN modules while being able to output similar performance and being smaller.  If they can solve the cooling structures as well, they can have themselves an AESA radar much cheaper and better.

But of course, they are aiming at ROFAR which is something KRET will have ready by 2018/2019 for testing purposes.  Sometimes I am wondering if that is what Russia is waiting for - just building new AESA based upon ROFAR technology rather than the current stuff.  Although, I doubt that somewhat simply because they want an AESA radar and others are investing in newer technology in it besides photonics.

The other thing is too, while Su-35's Irbis E is indeed a PESA, it is also predominantly a hybrid radar and there are a lot of subsystems on such machine that more than likely makes the AESA radar on the western jets not as capable against it than against older mechanical steered or PESA radar.

Then there is the AESA L band elements on the Su-35.

The gallium arsenide material characteristics are about frequency of potential electronics. The gallium nitride material characteristics are about heat tolerance
and beat gallium arsenide hands down in this regard. Perhaps the GaAs parts have some improved heat performance characteristics but that was not
touted in the past. Nitrogen compounds with silicon, gallium and almost any other chemically compatible element such as uranium have serious heat
resistance. Using SiN would be a way to produce electronics that could operate on Venus.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:A lot of chest thumping regarding AESA radar in that article.

Problem is, that isn't exactly true in anything they are saying.  In all AESA radars, they have (T/R Modules) a failure rate of 10% or greater, and their performance is purely based upon peak power (good luck running peak power 100% of the time.  It would have to be short bursts as the heat would destroy the T/R Modules), same like all radar.  But what it also fails to acknowledge is that the Su-35 and Su-30 would rely on their optical structure to deal with stealth more so than their radar.  AESA radar has been ready for quite some time in Russia but they have not been interested in it compared to the west.  Why is that?  I think it has more to do with what they try to make claims in.

Ultimately, all the EW capabilities of AESA can be countered with ECCM onboard systems.  They also over estimate how many 5th gen jets will actually be available, and to most understanings, most of the Typhoons and Rafale's do not sport AESA radar.

Until SAP2025 is out and what the ideal plans are, I doubt we know exactly all their plans.  So far, Mikoyan is very active in their new line of aircrafts, and a lot of emphasis on PAK FA.  Which the government may order more and less the other jets.

That is why gallium nitride modules are going to be used.   They have a much higher temperature tolerance and sensitivity.   So they can be operated at
much lower power giving the same amplification of the signal.   So much of the discussion is based on old information.   Russian companies are not
sitting around and picking their noses when it comes to overcoming various problems in the hardware.  

I am not entirely sure of Russian GaN other than some tidbits I have heard here and there.  I know one company has worked on GaN modules for navy based radar.

What I find interesting was their advancement in developing GaAS modules that operate at much higher/lower temperatures and at much larger wattage (20W I believe) while also being significantly smaller so they can fit significantly more onto the same radar.  This is also very very much cheaper than the GaN modules while being able to output similar performance and being smaller.  If they can solve the cooling structures as well, they can have themselves an AESA radar much cheaper and better.

But of course, they are aiming at ROFAR which is something KRET will have ready by 2018/2019 for testing purposes.  Sometimes I am wondering if that is what Russia is waiting for - just building new AESA based upon ROFAR technology rather than the current stuff.  Although, I doubt that somewhat simply because they want an AESA radar and others are investing in newer technology in it besides photonics.

The other thing is too, while Su-35's Irbis E is indeed a PESA, it is also predominantly a hybrid radar and there are a lot of subsystems on such machine that more than likely makes the AESA radar on the western jets not as capable against it than against older mechanical steered or PESA radar.

Then there is the AESA L band elements on the Su-35.

The gallium arsenide material characteristics are about frequency of potential electronics.   The gallium nitride material characteristics are about heat tolerance
and beat gallium arsenide hands down in this regard.   Perhaps the GaAs parts have some improved heat performance characteristics but that was not
touted in the past.   Nitrogen compounds with silicon, gallium and almost any other chemically compatible element such as uranium have serious heat
resistance.    Using SiN would be a way to produce electronics that could operate on Venus.  

I understand that. I just am going based upon news I heard. If you have more info on Russian GaN modules, I would be interested in reading more about them!

Spending a fortune now to rush AESA radars into service at a time when their main interceptor (MiG-31) already has a PESA which has all the advantages of electronic scanning sounds a little short sighted.

Sure spend money to perfect the materials and improve the technology but until MiG-35s and PAK FAs actually enter service what will they put them on?

This photonic technology sounds like it will make conventional AESA radars obsolete overnight, yet I would assume they would be AESA type array radars anyway.

Existing operational radars are mature technology that works, no need to rush into service some half ready really expensive new tech when a revolution is approaching...

I half suspect that the PAK DA might have been delayed 5 years so it can have photonic AESA radar built in to its skin as both a jamming and sensor suite... the logical thing therefore being to build the factories to make them now and just boost the population of Blackjacks using all new tooling are reacquired titanium welding technology while reskilling the workers while the essential technology is prepared.

It means Russia gets a small but economically viable fleet of supersonic bombers of a proven design upgraded with technology developed over the last 30 years while the latest touches are made to the PAK DA.

For all we know progress on scramjet propulsion might change the PAKDA into a high speed super cruising bomber instead of a subsonic flying wing... the question is can they make it cheap to run and operate.

The procurement plans extending into 2025 is due to be finalized in the fall but in the interim the present orders are coming close to the end. As of the end of 2017, planned procurement's against orders will be:

Su-30SM - 104/116  (Air Force 88 and Navy 28)
Su-35S - 68/98
Su-34 - 105/124 (option for 16 more)
Yak-130 - 99/109

Already completed;

Mig-29SMT - 52/52
Mig-29K - 24/24
Su-30M2 - 20/20
Su-27SM3 - 12/12

Have read there will be an order for 24 Mig-35 signed soon but until the MoD announce it.
There is also an order for another 36 Su-27SM3's but they are rebuilt Su-27P. First 4 due in 2017.

MOSCOW, July 26 (Itar-Tass) - RIA Novosti. VKS of Russia for the second quarter of this year received more than 70 new and renovated aircraft and helicopters, Deputy Defense Minister Yury Borisov said on Wednesday.

"In the interests of the Air and Space Forces, 9 new and 45 aircraft were repaired with the modernization of the aircraft, 6 new and 11 were repaired with the modernization of helicopters," he said during the day of military acceptance.

In the part of the VKS, 9 new and 10 repairs with the modernization of radar stations, a Pantsir-S combat vehicle and four repaired anti-aircraft missile systems were delivered.

In addition, the VKS received 4 electronic warfare complexes Vitebsk.

George1 wrote:2017 Deliveries Update

Su-30SM: 6 (4 to VKS, 2 to Ru Navy)
Su-35S: 0
Su-34: 4

10 planes in over 7 months. Bad show

I think that's normal and planned. Most deliveries happen during the second half of the year, if I'm not mistaken.

That includes the Air Force ("VKS"). But this is normal, this is how they do it every year.

franco wrote:The procurement plans extending into 2025 is due to be finalized in the fall but in the interim the present orders are coming close to the end. As of the end of 2017, planned procurement's against orders will be:

Su-30SM - 104/116  (Air Force 88 and Navy 28)
Su-35S - 68/98
Su-34 - 105/124 (option for 16 more)
Yak-130 - 99/109

Already completed;

Mig-29SMT - 52/52
Mig-29K - 24/24
Su-30M2 - 20/20
Su-27SM3 - 12/12

Have read there will be an order for 24 Mig-35 signed soon but until the MoD announce it.
There is also an order for another 36 Su-27SM3's but they are rebuilt Su-27P. First 4 due in 2017.

Interesting. It is likely to see the Su-34 reaching 140.

In the following years it is likely the orders to move to Tu-160, MiG-35 and Su-PAK-FA. I also would expect more Su-34 and Yak-130.

franco wrote:The procurement plans extending into 2025 is due to be finalized in the fall but in the interim the present orders are coming close to the end. As of the end of 2017, planned procurement's against orders will be:

Su-30SM - 104/116  (Air Force 88 and Navy 28)
Su-35S - 68/98
Su-34 - 105/124 (option for 16 more)
Yak-130 - 99/109

Already completed;

Mig-29SMT - 52/52
Mig-29K - 24/24
Su-30M2 - 20/20
Su-27SM3 - 12/12

Have read there will be an order for 24 Mig-35 signed soon but until the MoD announce it.
There is also an order for another 36 Su-27SM3's but they are rebuilt Su-27P. First 4 due in 2017.

SU-34 , had three contracts:
-5 planes signed in 2006 , deployed from december-2006 to 2009 (Nº 01 , 03 Akhtubinsk and Nº 02 , 04 , 05 Lipetsk)
-32 planes signed in 2008 , deployed from 2010 (The 24 planes for Voronezh, Nº34 Akhtubinsk and first 7 planes for Morozovsk)
-92 planes (+16 options) signed in 2012 , deployed from 2013 (First plane, Nº08 of Morozovsk)
Total: 129 planes (+16 ??) , enough for 10 - 11 squadrons in 2019

A new contract for bring the total arround 190-200 should be signed for 2020-2025 period, probably of improved Su-34M , about 5-6 aditional squadrons
ABout the Navy, is not clear if the Su-24M/MR of Monchegorsk will be replaced for Su-34 or Su-30SM (or even Su-35). In Yelizovo, 865 IAP also needs a second squadron
The Su-34 deployement at Monchegorsk was cancelled in 2015 after Monche was transferred to North Joint Strategic Command and that squadron finally went to Morozovsk (3rd sq.)

Currently there are 95 Su-34  in service with the VVS (only 4 deployed this year)
At the end of the year there will be 107 in service with the VVS
Also 7 (+1) prototypes was made:
The first 4 (Nº42,43,44,45) , are out of order
Nº 46 , 47 and 48 are used for test at Voronezh University,  Novosibirsk plant and Zhukovsky
The "eighth", Nº49 , was transformed into the first plane of series = Nº01 of Akhtubinsk


Su-30SM , by the year end a total of 100 will be deployed (80 VVS + 20 Navy)
This year , 17 will be received, 12 for VVS at Kursk and 5 for the Navy at Chernyakhovsk.
The last 16 (8 for VVS and 8 for Navy) for 2018 , if there are no more changes after new State Arms Program 2018-2025 will be anounced next year, probably after Putin re-election

More contracts of Su-30SM are needed , for VVS and specially for the Navy for period 2019-2025.
Navy should have 48-50 in 2020, as it was announced, VVS about 100-110
The total spected for VVS is 120-140 and for Navy 75-100 (6-8 squadrons).


Mig-29 SMT/UBM , the total are 50 (42 SMT+8 UBM), 34 "Algerians" (28SMT+6UBM) and 16 deployed at Astrakhan (14SMT+2UBM)
"Rumors" for other contract for aditional 4 UBM´s , are uncertain , probably not more new Mig-29 for VVS


Mig-35 : The case of Mig-35 is a "political purchase" , not necesary for VVS
After change to Su-30SM in Kursk, the only places for Mig-35 are TSPAT of Kubinka and one squadron for Astrakhan , and this is about those 24 machines
The Mig-29SMT from Kursk will be transferred, probably to Erebuni, the last combat unit with Mig-29S (9-13)
If there are more Mig-35 after 2020, then is necesary to open a new regiment (Mozdok ?? , reopen Andreapol or Zernograd ??...)


About "36 Su-27SM3" is not clear, for the moment only is sure to complete the 3 IAP of Krimsk with other 10 Su-27SM3
Probably, is too late for Su-27SM3 , thinking that for 2020 several squadrons of Su-35 will be received for replace Su-27P squadrons, and for 2025 all the SU-27SM squadrons will be changed to Su-35 except this regiment with SU-27SM3