Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

The are called forward operation locations because they are not full time air bases. Just a few guys sitting around, keeping the place useable.

The number of 700 aircrafts including Fighters Air Superiority, Fighters Multi-Role and Fighter interceptors can be something like semiofficial. It means approximately 550 FAS+FMR and around 150 FI.

Some people has been counting in recent (2-4) years a number under this level for the total fleet of the Russian Armed Forces, but from what I observed they were overstimating the number of retirements to the reserve and decommissions. Now the people that has been understimating the real number and overestimating the retirements and decommissions may think that to reach 550 FAS+FMR is necessary to increase the fleet, but this would not be right. In the last years Russia seems to sustain the fleet around this number, and seems only doing replacements, like V Putin said, and in the following years surely will continue doing the same.

Now with the entering in production of the Su-57 some people is overestimating the total production of fighters because they are not assuming that the procurement of the rest of the Fighters (FAS and FMR) for the Russian Armed Forces will decline until 0 in the following years (between 2020 and 2025), and they are not assuming the level of stable long term production that this fleet of 550 FAS+FMR means.

The stable long term production is in a level that does not mean a total retirememt of the Su-27 and MiG-29 variants. Not even the earliest. And like for other competent aircrafts and variants, upgrade programs are likely to emerge for them. Certainly we will see modernized Su-27 and MiG-29.

By the end of 2025 the overall fleet of the Russian Armed Forces, considering the production in the stable long term level gives different options. My bet would be something between these two options that would mark the limits of the ranges:

1.- With new orders for the Su-35, for the Su-30 and the MiG-35:

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41

48 Su-57 (38 new, including production of 2018)
424 Su-27/30/33/35 (112 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 128 Su-35 (60 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 172 Su-30 (52 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
80 MiG-29/35 (30 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 32 MiG-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29

2.-With maximum production of the Su-57 (no new orders for the Su-30, and Su-35, only a initial order for the MiG-35):

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41

114 Su-57 (104 new, including production of 2018)
358 Su-27/30/33/35 (46 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 98 Su-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 136 Su-30 (16 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
80 MiG-29/35 (30 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 32 MiG-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29

The production of Su-30, Su-35 and MiG-35 would continue strong but focused on export units.

Since 2025 basically it would be to add 22 Su-57 per year, and the retirement of 22 of the oldest aircrafts per year.

miketheterrible wrote:So its combining Navy with AF that gives them large amount.

And that is not including Su-34 and Su-24, which both have Short/Med Range AA capabilities.

Still, for a nation like Russia with its massive territory/airspace, that is a small airforce, even if you account AD systems.

Su-34 is not a figther, for russians is a tactical bomber, can defend itself in mid-distance, but not in dogfigth because is very heavy. In fact Su-24 also can carry AA misiles and near sea level have a good performance because the variable wing.


Russia will have the Air Force that need, with a size like in 1998 when unified the PVO and the Frontal Aviation and remained about 850 figthers in total (340 Su-27, 255 MiG-31 and 260 MiG-29)

There is no need for more, enough to defend itself agaisnt NATO in the short term, in case of escalation we will see the M.A.D. scenario without any doubt

Other treaths as South Caucasus , Turquia (out the NATO in mid term ??) or a new-imperialist Japan for the Kuriles or a Korea scalation, can be handed by Russia perfectly

If you compare the GDP (even PPP) of Rusia with Germany , UK or France and compare the armed forces, then there are no color

Russia is not the USSR, despite the size of the country is also gigant

In 1990, USSR has more 290 million people (3º country after China and India) and had an armed forces of near 4 million people
While USA had 250 million people and 3 millions in the Armed Forces

If you compare the West Europe scenario, European Unión had about 320 million in 1990 and Warsaw Pact + Yugoeslavia 410 million people with combined armies of more 5,5 million people

Today USA has 330 million and Rusia 145 (Crimea excluded), that is in fact less than the 148,5 million that Soviet Rusia Republic had in 1990

Then Russia cannot play the same game that USSR

eehnie wrote:

1.- With new orders for the Su-35, for the Su-30 and the MiG-35:

152 MiG-31

48 Su-57 (38 new, including production of 2018)
424 Su-27/30/33/35 (112 new, including production of 2018):
- 128 Su-35 (60 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 172 Su-30 (52 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
80 MiG-29/35 (30 new, including production of 2018):
- 32 MiG-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29

2.-With maximum production of the Su-57 (no new orders for the Su-30, and Su-35, only a initial order for the MiG-35):

152 MiG-31

114 Su-57 (104 new, including production of 2018)
358 Su-27/30/33/35 (46 new, including production of 2018):
- 98 Su-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 136 Su-30 (16 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
80 MiG-29/35 (30 new, including production of 2018):
- 32 MiG-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29
The production of Su-30, Su-35 and MiG-35 would continue strong but focused on export units.

But how do you do the accounts?

That in 2025 is not possible, where does the number of 128 Su-35 come from?
If in 2020 there will be at least 98, why will only have 128 in 2025?
In fact next year, 2019, 20 Su-35s will be produced and the only buyer with a contract is Russia, given that Indonesia will receive 2 in October and 9 in 2020. Other new buyers should receive its aircraft after Indonesia, that also has option for 5 Su-35 more

Regiment that receives Su-35, regiment that stop to fly with the Su-27, it is so simple.
By 2025 only 24 Su-27SM3 will continue in service and will be relplaced by more Su-35 or Su-57

Contracts of Su-35: first 48 , second 50 and after that other similar , for complete 6 regiments. The Navy is other question that will have its own contract
Contracts for Su-30:first 30 , later other 30 , then 5+7+8 for Navy and after that other 36 both branches, and now other 36 ? and in 2020-21 will have more for complete Navy regiments. The total of Su-30SM will have 200 or more, at least 14 combat squadrons

The Su-57 will be produced in small numbers, the first 12 in 2022 for Lípetsk and Akhtubisnk, and later other  4 ? per year until 2027, so in 2026 or 2027 could be ready the first combat squadron and since 2028 about 8-10 airplanes by year until 2035

The force goal is simple: 10 air defense regiments with Su-35/57 , similar number of regiments of Su-27 that Russia had in 1998
This can be 8+2 or 7+3
Su-57 is a bridge between 4th and 6th gen., is necesary, but not the main asset for the airforce.
Over the Su-57 will be designed a new family of warplanes of 6th gen, one air defence figther (Su-67) and one strike-figther (Su-60) perhaps single seat if the technological level allows that , but this will after 2040
About the Su-34 I dont see this type of warplane after 2050, in fact is a outdated soviet design from a western point of wiew, but useful for the Russian war doctrine still today.

Russia didnt want take risk with a new developement after see the default of american F-22 program, even thinking USA started with "stealth" concept in early 80´s or late 70´s ,so Russia judiciously put the money in the triad Su-35/30/34 , a safe bet.
If USA has 160 F-22 full equiped , Russia can live with 80 Su-57, but this after 2030

All true, but the Su-34 is more maneuverable than an F-15 in a dog-fight. Compared to older front Bombers (Su-24) the Su-34 can use medium-range missiles like the R-27 and R-77-1 instead of only R-60´s (range of 3 km), therefore the Su-34 could also be used as an interceptor if the need aroses.

AMCXXL wrote:But how do you do the accounts?

That in 2025 is not possible, where does the number of 128 Su-35 come from?
If in 2020 there will be at least 98, why will only have 128 in 2025?
In fact next year, 2019, 20 Su-35s will be produced and the only buyer with a contract is Russia, given that Indonesia will receive 2 in October and 9 in 2020. Other new buyers should receive its aircraft after Indonesia, that also has option for 5 Su-35 more

Regiment that receives Su-35, regiment that stop to fly with the Su-27, it is so simple.
By 2025 only 24 Su-27SM3 will continue in service and will be relplaced by more Su-35 or Su-57

Contracts of Su-35: first 48 , second 50 and after that other similar , for complete 6 regiments. The Navy is other question that will have its own contract
Contracts for Su-30:first 30 , later other 30 , then 5+7+8 for Navy and after that other 36 both branches, and now other 36 ? and in 2020-21 will have more for complete Navy regiments. The total of Su-30SM will have 200 or more, at least 14 combat squadrons

The Su-57 will be produced in small numbers, the first 12 in 2022 for Lípetsk and Akhtubisnk, and later other  4 ? per year until 2027, so in 2026 or 2027 could be ready the first combat squadron and since 2028 about 8-10 airplanes by year until 2035

The force goal is simple: 10 air defense regiments with Su-35/57 , similar number of regiments of Su-27 that Russia had in 1998
This can be 8+2 or 7+3
Su-57 is a bridge between 4th and 6th gen., is necesary, but not the main asset for the airforce.
Over the Su-57 will be designed a new family of warplanes of 6th gen, one air defence figther (Su-67) and one strike-figther (Su-60) perhaps single seat if the technological level allows that , but this will after 2040
About the Su-34 I dont see this type of warplane after 2050, in fact is a outdated soviet design from a western point of wiew, but useful for the Russian war doctrine still today.

Russia didnt want take risk with a new developement after see the default of american F-22 program, even thinking USA started with "stealth" concept in early 80´s or late 70´s ,so Russia judiciously put the money in the triad Su-35/30/34 , a safe bet.
If USA has 160 F-22 full equiped , Russia can live with 80 Su-57, but this after 2030

Your comments about the Su-57 are totally out of the reality. In my previous comment, the minimum limit for the range of the production of Su-57 in the period 2018-2025 both included, is of 38 aircrafts, which means 4.75 aircrafts per year. This comes from a situation in 2016-2017 where Russia has been producing at a rate of 2.5 Su-57 per year. 2 in 2016 and 3 in 2017. And in your counts you even do not include the aircraft. Why? And you talk instead about the Su-67?

Do you think that with the entering in the serial production, the production of the Su-57 will decline under the level of 3 aircrafts per year of 2017? 12 in 2018-2022 means 2.4 aircrafts per year. Do you think really the production of the Su-57 will be of 2.4 per year until 2022 and will be of 4 per year until 2027?

Do not pretend to be the expert in the room and say things like these. Do not be too harsh answering me to say things like these. My projection do not include mistakes like these.

Only at the rythm of production, of pre-serial production of 2017, Russia will have 24 new + 10 current = 34 Su-57 by the end of 2025. And 49 by 2030. Everyone that talks about 50, 60, 80, even 100 Su-57 by 2030 just knows not what is talking about. This is fairly under the reality of the evolution of the serial production of every aircraft.

The 38 units new (for a total of 48) that Im giving as minimum limit of the range of production by the end of 2025 is barely above of the production of Su-57 of 2017, and is fairly conservative.

In the other side your projections for the Su-30, Su-35 and MiG-35 are totally exagerated. My numbers are clearly exposed in the message, with the number on new produced idenfied, that include the 30 ordered Su-35 and the 16 ordered Su-30 pending of delivery in both cases at the begin of 2018. As said in my previous comment there is people that is not assuming the decline of the orders of these aircrafts in favor of the orders of the Su-57.

You lost most of the answers to your questions in the text that you included not in your quote of my comment. I would recommend you to read my previous comment again.

Finally we have the size of the new order of aircrafts of the MiG-35 variant, that is lower than spected. This is important information to make the projection for the future composition of the fleet of Fighters of the Russian Armed Forces. Being lower than expected, would be right to update my projection, with some little change in the numbers.

The introduction to understand well the numbers just remains the same.

The number of 700 aircrafts including Fighters Air Superiority, Fighters Multi-Role and Fighter interceptors can be something like semiofficial. It means approximately 550 FAS+FMR and around 150 FI.

Some people has been counting in recent (2-4) years a number under this level for the total fleet of the Russian Armed Forces, but from what I observed they were overstimating the number of retirements to the reserve and decommissions. Now the people that has been understimating the real number and overestimating the retirements and decommissions may think that to reach 550 FAS+FMR is necessary to increase the fleet, but this would not be right. In the last years Russia seems to sustain the fleet around this number, and seems only doing replacements, like V Putin said, and in the following years surely will continue doing the same.

Now with the entering in production of the Su-57 some people is overestimating the total production of fighters because they are not assuming that the procurement of the rest of the Fighters (FAS and FMR) for the Russian Armed Forces will decline until 0 in the following years (between 2020 and 2025), and they are not assuming the level of stable long term production that this fleet of 550 FAS+FMR means.

The stable long term production is in a level that does not mean a total retirememt of the Su-27 and MiG-29 variants. Not even the earliest. To note that some are new. And like for other competent aircrafts and variants, upgrade programs are likely to emerge for them. Certainly we will see modernized Su-27 and MiG-29.

By the end of 2025 the overall fleet of the Russian Armed Forces, considering the production in the stable long term level gives different options. My bet would be something between these two options that would mark the limits of the ranges:

1.- With new orders for the Su-35, for the Su-30 and the MiG-35:

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41
153 TOTAL FIGTHER INTERCEPTORS

48 Su-57 (38 new, including production of 2018)
444 Su-27/30/33/35 (132 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 144 Su-35 (76 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 176 Su-30 (56 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29
548 TOTAL FIGHTERS (FAS+FMR)

701 TOTAL

2.-With maximum production of the Su-57 (no new orders for the Su-30, and Su-35, only a initial order for the MiG-35):

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41
153 TOTAL FIGTHER INTERCEPTORS

134 Su-57 (124 new, including production of 2018)
358 Su-27/30/33/35 (46 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 98 Su-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 136 Su-30 (16 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29
548 TOTAL FIGHTERS (FAS+FMR)

701 TOTAL

The production of Su-30, Su-35 and MiG-35 would continue strong but focused on export units.

Since 2025 basically it would be to add 22 Su-57 per year, and the retirement to the reserve of 22 of the oldest aircrafts per year.

To note that for me the reality can be closer to the second limit than to the first.

The order for MiG-35s might be lower than expected for a lot of different reasons.

They might just have decided to extend the acquisition period to reduce costs now and to give MiG a chance to produce domestic aircraft and export aircraft at the same time without having to expand production capacity... which would cost money.

There is no urgent reason to get a lot of MiG-35s into service now, but over time having more MiG-35s makes a lot of sense... it will be a very capable aircraft that could be bought in larger numbers than the Su-57 or Su-35, which would mean it would be a much better solution to the problem of the F-35 which is expected to be bought by NATO countries in huge numbers.

The F-35 is a much greater problem for the countries that buys them.

franco wrote:Missing the Mig-29K's but probably close overall. I don't expect to see more the 180 Su-30SM / M2's and there will be more Mig-35's after the first 6. How many is the big question? Not sure you will see the Mig-41 before 2030.

The numbers of the MiG-29K/KUB variants would be included in the data for the MiG-29 in both limits of the range.
The unit for the MiG-41 would be the prototype for the first fly of the new model also for both limits of the range.

About the MiG-35, if the timeline of the current order is until 2023, it seems difficult to see new orders after this one of 6 units. Despite it, likely the 6 units ordered new can be delivered with the first units produced. Some people is arguing that the short order can affect to the export of the aircraft, but the reality can be the inverse, and a good export prospect can also help to reduce the size of the order.

franco wrote:
Missing the Mig-29K's but probably close overall. I don't expect to see more the 180 Su-30SM / M2's and there will be more Mig-35's after the first 6. How many is the big question? Not sure you will see the Mig-41 before 2030.

But this why?

Then Russian Navy is not going to complete the Su-30SM/Su-24 regiments ?
The Su-30SM Will be the most numerous airplane
It will be the most numerous plane, as well as having a similar number of regiments that the Su-34 and Su-35 will have many other uses (display, two seater for Su-35, and probably finally also in some training centers)

About MiG-35 is calir until 2027 Will be 24, mainly for squadron of Kubinka.
Later could be for Yerevan if finally algerian SMT is discarded son.

The MiG-41 for replace MiG-31 and the replacement for Su-25, will be for 2028/2030 until 2040/2042 or so (about 1 squadron per year) just after the end of Flanker production and just before the starting ofm 6th generation full scale production

eehnie wrote:

1.- With new orders for the Su-35, for the Su-30 and the MiG-35:

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41
153 TOTAL FIGTHER INTERCEPTORS

48 Su-57 (38 new, including production of 2018)
444 Su-27/30/33/35 (132 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 144 Su-35 (76 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 176 Su-30 (56 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29
548 TOTAL FIGHTERS (FAS+FMR)

701 TOTAL

2.-With maximum production of the Su-57 (no new orders for the Su-30, and Su-35, only a initial order for the MiG-35):

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41
153 TOTAL FIGTHER INTERCEPTORS

134 Su-57 (124 new, including production of 2018)
358 Su-27/30/33/35 (46 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 98 Su-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 136 Su-30 (16 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29
548 TOTAL FIGHTERS (FAS+FMR)

701 TOTAL

The production of Su-30, Su-35 and MiG-35 would continue strong but focused on export units.

Since 2025 basically it would be to add 22 Su-57 per year, and the retirement to the reserve of 22 of the oldest aircrafts per year.

To note that for me the reality can be closer to the second limit than to the first.

But all of this, why ??
What aircraft replaces each ammount of each type you wrote?
What bases will be equiped with each airplane?
What new bases will be opened for all of those airplanes?
Why the Russian MoD would purchase that numbers?
And the most important, who is going to pilot that airplanes ?

134 Su-57 (124 new, including production of 2018)

How many pilots are available today for start to raise Su-57 squadrons ?
How many instructors are available for re-training pilots forall of this airplanes ??
Will Putin, Shoigu, Borisov and Bondarev pilot all those Su-57 ??? …. well probably yes, but then you will need other 120 pilots

No, of course, the things does not work in this way
You can take pilots of Su-27 and re-training in a few months for Su-35 that is other flanker

Did you read thye news in this forum ??, was published that the first airplanes dont will have the definitive engines
First 12 until 2022 or 2023 will be delivered only for to advance the work of the Air Force, and the instructors of Lípetsk can learn the operation and piloting of the plane

The instructors must learn the plane's handling before teaching anyone, and then elaborate the RuAF instruction manual for the handling of the Su-57 and also elaborate the pilots training protocol that will then work in the Lipetsk training center
All this will take at least 3 years (in addition to the tests that will also be the Akhtubisnk)

Once Lipetsk is ready, will receive other batch of Su-57 with the definitive engines, while the first 12 return in batches to production factory for update the engines and other systems, so the next years will continue few airplanes
When have airplanes enough it will be formed the first combat squadron, so this can be in 2025 or more
To train a squadron for get a high level and a good combat coordination for regiment level, or with other different types of airplanes can take at least other 3 years.
Then AIr Force cannot wait so many time without full combat ready units .
The purchaes of Sukhoi will continue until the replacement of soviet built aircraft
The production will only increase when Flanker's production ends, in not very large numbers waiting for the next generation

56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them: -
8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018) -
48 MiG-29

What means this ?? Why do you complicate things so much?

In first time, there are 50 MiG-29 SMT not 48

In second place there are not any MiG-35 rigth now, prototypes are not of Air Force, are of manufacturer. (In addition there are 4 prototypes , not two)
Air Force units only uses serial airplanes after test and make the "handbook" of each type of airplane operated, this exclude singular airplanes or development airplanes

And last was announced 24 MiG-25 for period 2018-2024, after 6 will come other 18  in 2023-2027 for replacement of the Kubinka squadron

franco wrote:
The Navy is "hoping" to get 50 Su-30SM and as present regiments are basically a squadron of Su-24M's along with 4-6 -24MR's, which can be replaced with the new long range UAV's coming, don't see 2 squadron regiments. Suspect production focus goes to Su-35's and -57's come 5 years time.

This is not true. Also the UAV when come will be in separate squadrons. For the momento the dornes are managed by Army, not Air Force

The Navy already has 3 regiments with 2 squadrons of Su-24M/MR/Su-30SM (discounting the third squadorn of MiG-31 of Monchegorsk)

By 2013 Navy only has 1 squadron in Saki with 10 Su-24 (old versión) and 4 Su-24MR
The older Su-24 was retired by 2015 and received 6 just repaired Su-24M form Morozovsk and Monchegorsk and also a couple of Su-24MR.
The 43 OMShAP was oficially restored (Independent Maritime Assault Aviation Regiment) and today has two complete squadorons of 12 Su-30SM and 12 Su-24M/MR

In Chernyakhovsk there are a big ammount of Su-24M as was regiment until 2012, the two dozens of shelters are full of Su-24´s
By 2013 72 AvB had operative about 10 Su-24M and 3-4 Su-27 (from Chkalovsk).
In last 3 years has been repaired a dozen of Su-24M (with new tail numbers and also registrations), also has received 8 Su-30SM that will be 12 soon and 9-10 Su-27
The 4 OMShAP was oficially restored last december, so today is regiment with 2 squadrons (8+12), while the squadron of Su-27P will return soon to Chkalovsk for restore 689 IAP

About Monchegorsk, was of Air Force until december 2014, and was projected to replace the Su-24´s with Su-34, as the rest of Air Force, but the things changed
Monchegorsk have huge ammounts of Su-24M , has more of 50 shelters with airplanes inside. Until 2008 was recon. regiment with about 30 Su-24MR numbered betwwen 1 and 35.
Also in 2009  received two squadrons of Su-24M from Siversky-Smuravyevo and Gdov regiments when those were disbanded.
Known numbers of Su-24M are near 20 between Nº36 until Nº56 in most cases also with registration number, and several other airplanes was sent to Marinovka or Crimea.
In 2011-2013 also received 1 squadron of MiG-31, so the Su-24MR below Nº18 are not in use today, remaining in the shelters

Today In Monchegorsk there are two complete squadrons of at least 12 Su-24 + 12 Su-24MR (and much other available) , all repaired in the last 2-3 years , and near all with new tail numbers near and registrations , and now also with the Navy Flag and inscription MA-VMF RUSSIA

The number of "about 50 " Su-30SM  "expected" by the media after the announce in 2013-14 of MoD for the purchase of Su-30SM by the Navy , was 24 for Crimea , 24 for Kaliningrad and 2 "two seaters" (Nº22,23) for 279 KIAP as replacement for 2 Su-27UB (Nº20,21). Probably also a couple for Yeisk Training Center

After the things changed in december 2014, North and Pacific will also receive a regiment of Su-30SM, has no sense that Navy get Su-34 if already has an airplane , Su-30SM, capable for maritime tasks and also is a figther in forward areas
The production of Su-30/34/35 will continue until the end of the replacement of soviet airplanes. If Irkut is not interested in continue with Su-30SM (and Ru. Gov. allow that) , then can be produced on any other Factory as Novosibirsk that by 2023 will be near the end of Su-34 production

AMCXXL wrote:

eehnie wrote:By the end of 2025 the overall fleet of the Russian Armed Forces, considering the production in the stable long term level gives different options. My bet would be something between these two options that would mark the limits of the ranges:

1.- With new orders for the Su-35, for the Su-30 and the MiG-35:

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41
153 TOTAL FIGTHER INTERCEPTORS

48 Su-57 (38 new, including production of 2018)
444 Su-27/30/33/35 (132 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 144 Su-35 (76 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 176 Su-30 (56 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29
548 TOTAL FIGHTERS (FAS+FMR)

701 TOTAL

2.-With maximum production of the Su-57 (no new orders for the Su-30, and Su-35, only a initial order for the MiG-35):

152 MiG-25/31 of them:
- 152 MiG-31
1 MiG-41
153 TOTAL FIGTHER INTERCEPTORS

134 Su-57 (124 new, including production of 2018)
358 Su-27/30/33/35 (46 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 98 Su-35 (30 new, including production of 2018)
- 20 Su-33
- 136 Su-30 (16 new, including production of 2018)
- 104 Su-27
56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them:
- 8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018)
- 48 MiG-29
548 TOTAL FIGHTERS (FAS+FMR)

701 TOTAL

The production of Su-30, Su-35 and MiG-35 would continue strong but focused on export units.

Since 2025 basically it would be to add 22 Su-57 per year, and the retirement to the reserve of 22 of the oldest aircrafts per year.

To note that for me the reality can be closer to the second limit than to the first.

But all of this, why ??
What aircraft replaces each ammount of each type you wrote?
What bases will be equiped with each airplane?
What new bases will be opened for all of those airplanes?
Why the Russian MoD would purchase that numbers?
And the most important, who is going to pilot that airplanes ?

134 Su-57 (124 new, including production of 2018)

How many pilots are available today for start to raise Su-57 squadrons ?
How many instructors are available for re-training pilots forall of this airplanes ??
Will Putin, Shoigu, Borisov and Bondarev pilot all those Su-57 ??? …. well probably yes, but then you will need other 120 pilots

No, of course, the things does not work in this way
You can take pilots of Su-27 and re-training in a few months for Su-35 that is other flanker

Did you read thye news in this forum ??, was published that the first airplanes dont will have the definitive engines
First 12 until 2022 or 2023 will be delivered only for to advance the work of the Air Force, and the instructors of Lípetsk can learn the operation and piloting of the plane

The instructors must learn the plane's handling before teaching anyone, and then elaborate the RuAF instruction manual for the handling of the Su-57 and also elaborate the pilots training protocol that will then work in the Lipetsk training center
All this will take at least 3 years (in addition to the tests that will also be the Akhtubisnk)

Once Lipetsk is ready, will receive other batch of Su-57 with the definitive engines, while the first 12 return in batches to production factory for update the engines and other systems, so the next years will continue few airplanes
When have airplanes enough it will be formed the first combat squadron, so this can be in 2025 or more
To train a squadron for get a high level and a good combat coordination for regiment level, or with other different types of airplanes can take at least other 3 years.
Then AIr Force cannot wait so many time without full combat ready units .
The purchaes of Sukhoi will continue until the replacement of soviet built aircraft
The production will only increase when Flanker's production ends, in not very large numbers waiting for the next generation

56 MiG-29/35 (6 new, including production of 2018) of them: -
8 MiG-35 (6 new, including production of 2018) -
48 MiG-29

What means this ?? Why do you complicate things so much?

In first time, there are 50 MiG-29 SMT not 48

In second place there are not any MiG-35 rigth now, prototypes are not of Air Force, are of manufacturer. (In addition there are 4 prototypes , not two)
Air Force units only uses serial airplanes after test and make the "handbook" of each type of airplane operated, this exclude singular airplanes or development airplanes

And last was announced 24 MiG-25 for period 2018-2024, after 6 will come other 18  in 2023-2027 for replacement of the Kubinka squadron

It is necessary to forget not that the 2 options are the limits of a range.

I begin to be not sure if you consider that the presence of the Su-57 would damage the Russian Armed Forces. Far of the reality.

First to say that there are reports from the pilots of the Su-57 saying that the aircraft is easy to guide for the pilot, easier than aircrafts of the Su-27/30/33/35 family, thanks to the higher authomatic assistance to the pilot of the own aircraft.

At the time of the Soviet Union, every process of introduction of a new combat aircraft was faster than what the higher limit considered for the Su-57. Every case, except the Tu-160 and a few more. The introduction of the Su-27, MiG-29, Su-24, MiG-31, Tu-22,... in the Armed Forces of the Soviet Union was more agressive than the most agressive scenario for the introduction of the Su-57. Even doing simoultaneusly several of these processes of introduction. How was it done? Look at how the Soviet Union did it. Today Russia has 10 flying prototypes of Su-57 and over 100 Yak-130 for it.

To produce Su-57 with the current engine is not a problem because when the engine is changed, the engines removed can remain as spare engines for the Su-35, making longer the life of this aircraft. A Su-57 with a Su-35 engine is better than a Su-35. There is not problem with that.

About the distribution of the Su-57 in the Russian Armed Forces, obviously the new Su-57 would go to the elite units of fighters the Russian Aerospace Force and the Russian Naval Aviation. The current aircrafts of these elite units, Su-35 and Su-30 would be available for other units with older aircrafts. Only the oldest aircrafts would go to the reserve, older aircrafts that in a good number of cases you are not even counting, because habitually your numbers fall significantly under 700. While your numbers remain around 150 for fighter interceptors, you rarely reach 500 for fighters, instead of 550. And with all this, the Russian fleet of combat fighters would be seriously reinforced, not only in the refered to the elite units, also in more secundary units.

In the refered to the purchase of new aircrafts, it has been stated that Russia is finding a long term stable production. Some people is going far away of what this means. Between the approximate total number, the orders can go to one model or to other, but the overall numbers very likely will make the fleet remains in stable numbers around this level of 700 aircrafts.

In the refered to the MiG-29/35 as explained to Franco, I do not expect more orders of MiG-35 if the timeline of the order of 6 goes until 2023. If the two earlier prototypes of MiG-35 are complete, then we can count 10. More explicitly, between the 48 remaining MiG-29 in the projection, 24 would be of the K/KUB variants, 16 would be the recently produced SMT/UBT, and 8 would be the youngest of the rest. I never said there are 48 SMT, in fact I said the aircrafts of the K/KUB variants were included in the number of 48. I do not expect the presence of MiG-29/35 produced before 2001 in active service by 2025.

AMCXXL wrote:and the replacement for Su-25, will be for 2028/2030 until 2040/2042 or so (about 1 squadron per year) just after the end of Flanker production and just before the starting ofm 6th generation full scale production

There are reports about a new reinforced variant of the Su-34 as replacement of the Su-25.

I expect its construction begins soon. In fact the Su-24 remains more modern, as military concept than the Su-25.

There are reports about a new reinforced variant of the Su-34 as replacement of the Su-25.

I expect its construction begins soon. In fact the Su-24 remains more modern, as military concept than the Su-25.

If that is the case then the CAS role would be disappearing... no model of the Su-34 could replace the Su-25...

Adding armour means greatly reducing performance, while the aircraft itself is too expensive for such risks as low flying CAS...

If you are not going to take it low then why waste time at all when a plane flying at 10km can drop cheap dumb bombs with reasonable accuracy... it would be cheaper to operate a medium sized transport aircraft... Il-276 or An-12... they could carry hundreds of 50kg and 100kg bombs and loiter for half a day at low speeds...

George1 wrote:

franco wrote:

George1 wrote:2018 Deliveries Update

Su-30SM: 12 (10 to VKS, 2 to Ru Navy)
Su-35S: 5
Su-34: 4

For 2018 we expect in total:

14xSu-30SM (2 for the Navy and 12 for the Air Force)
10xSu-35S
18xSu-34

Are you sure about 18 Su-34 for this year?

οk fixed

5 Su-35? when ?

About the "18 Su-34" , this was the words of Yuri Borisov in february, but probably this includes the last 6 of last year , not delivered to the destini regimemt last year. The question is that seems the production has been delayed so that next year there are still 10 aircraft to deliver , and not to sign a new contract until begining of 2020.

For the moment only were delivered 3 on July with numbers Nº70 , 71 and 72

With the last 4 Su-30SM Russian armed forces has received 400 new warplanes in the last years:
111 Su-34 , 71 Su-35 , 112 Su-30SM , 20 Su-30M2 , 12 Su-27SM(3) , 50 MiG-29SMT/UBT , 24 MiG-29K/KUB

Now minus number of Su-34 from that list, then it shows they are still having to build a lot more than enough left to reach that 700 fighters needed. Oh, forgot, then add MiG-31BM.

-1 mig 31 after a crash.