Syrian Civil War: News #6

PapaDragon wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

zg18 wrote:Kurds started operation to take Azaz from Erdogan proxies.

That will stir them up over the border. I'd say Russia is trying to push as hard as it can, like CAS for Kurds, to force an early reaction.

They are definitely out for some turk blood, I give them that.


I noticed on some other forums that everyone is convinced that turks are some kind of military superpower. Su-24 ambush inflated that opinion even further. Like they could roll into Syria unopposed and take on VKS air group in Latakia.

1) Everyone ignores the fact that Su-24 was ambush from (at the time) "non-belligerent" entity.

2) Even if by some cosmic paradox turks with their whole military even partially successfully take on Latakia air group, those guys do not exist in vacuum, they are just tiny fraction of Russian Armed Forces. Those other guys will not sit on their asses.

How f*cking stupid people (FoxtrotAlpha, WarIsBoring, etc...) have to be to think that turks even stand a chance in this game? And that is without taking SAA, Kurds and rest of the crowd into account.

you pretty much voiced my irritations with some people, that think Turkey is some superpower. citing numbers that are on itself correct. but irrelevant to the arguments they make. Turkey got a lot of stuff sure, but its outdated. M-60 tanks, F-4's and f-16's, old YPR IFV's. its hardly impressive. also the Turkish Army is not ruled by motivation to get their men moving but by dictatorship.

During my time in the Millitary we had a few Turkish guys around serving in the Dutch Millitary. Turkey has mandatory conscription regardless if you live in another country or not. and Turks living abroad can actually "pay" it off so they do not have to. Turkish guys told me it was their choice to join up the Dutch millitary, but that in Turkey you do not get that choice. and that they give you like 2 weeks of training and if you are "unlucky" you get deployed against the PKK. if you are "lucky" you got to sit your service term out in Cyprus. idiots of officers that are more or less "hand picked" by the ruling government because Erdogan is so paranoid he got rid of any capable officers that has the nerve to speak up when they do not support the government line and that its corrupt to the core.

lets just say they are used shooting kurds in the back for an while.... or Russian SU-24's in the back for that matter. in retrospect Turkey is somewhat of an Backstab country. my favourite remark still is Erdogan calling Iran "and its allies" in Syria being busy with Genocide.

i mean, Erdogan as an Turk should know whats genocide is right?. *cough cough* Armenian genocide.... and oh yes, Turkey was also on the "wrong" side when WW1 kicked off and Russia pretty much showed Turkey every corner of the room. sure, past performances do not gaurantee the future. but i do know Turkey was high on its own bullshit then and today it is again believing itself as the regional "superpower"

back to the point, IF Turkey invades witch i still estimate "likely" at the moment personally. all that hardware in the border region and personell is there for an reason. if they invade, they will run into an gruesome urban warfare with the YPG forces that i'd bet want Turkish blood to flow after their latest operation suppressing the Kurds in Turkey.

Turkish Air power will be defeated in the opening of the invasion, its just an useless undertaking. you got the S-400 battery, the S-300 naval assets, Syrians using the Pantsir-S1 and BUK systems, Russians air asset's, Syrian AF migs that certainly will be there combat effective or not. but i estimate the Russians upgraded at least some to be AA capable. there are too many variables and advanced air defense assets in place to gain air superiority. the Turkish at least need's to "cycle" their air force, meaning they can not commit their full air force to attack at once otherwise they have nothing to send up to react to enemy actions.

do not even get me started on the casualty rate the Turks will take attacking defended positions and pressing into enemy territory. Air superiority is ruled out as it at the least it is contested by the Russians and Syrians. there is no calling in Airstrikes as they are occupied targeting AA sites and other aircraft. so you got artillery witch the Turks might use to pound the initial resistance fortifications they meet but i doubt retaliatory fire is far behind. Assad and the Russians are not amateurs and they propably already tough the process of invasion trough and how to let it cost the Turks dearly. as the attacker, there are rather great disadvantages.

this whole "invasion" will be an meat grinder for Turkey as soon they go across that border.

Airbornewolf wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

zg18 wrote:Kurds started operation to take Azaz from Erdogan proxies.

That will stir them up over the border. I'd say Russia is trying to push as hard as it can, like CAS for Kurds, to force an early reaction.

They are definitely out for some turk blood, I give them that.


I noticed on some other forums that everyone is convinced that turks are some kind of military superpower. Su-24 ambush inflated that opinion even further. Like they could roll into Syria unopposed and take on VKS air group in Latakia.

1) Everyone ignores the fact that Su-24 was ambush from (at the time) "non-belligerent" entity.

2) Even if by some cosmic paradox turks with their whole military even partially successfully take on Latakia air group, those guys do not exist in vacuum, they are just tiny fraction of Russian Armed Forces. Those other guys will not sit on their asses.

How f*cking stupid people (FoxtrotAlpha, WarIsBoring, etc...) have to be to think that turks even stand a chance in this game? And that is without taking SAA, Kurds and rest of the crowd into account.

you pretty much voiced my irritations with some people, that think Turkey is some superpower. citing numbers that are on itself correct. but irrelevant to the arguments they make. Turkey got a lot of stuff sure, but its outdated. M-60 tanks, F-4's and f-16's, old YPR IFV's. its hardly impressive. also the Turkish Army is not ruled by motivation to get their men moving but by dictatorship.

During my time in the Millitary we had a few Turkish guys around serving in the Dutch Millitary. Turkey has mandatory conscription regardless if you live in another country or not. and Turks living abroad can actually "pay" it off so they do not have to. Turkish guys told me it was their choice to join up the Dutch millitary, but that in Turkey you do not get that choice. and that they give you like 2 weeks of training and if you are "unlucky" you get deployed against the PKK. if you are "lucky" you got to sit your service term out in Cyprus. idiots of officers that are more or less "hand picked" by the ruling government because Erdogan is so paranoid he got rid of any capable officers that has the nerve to speak up when they do not support the government line and that its corrupt to the core.

lets just say they are used shooting kurds in the back for an while.... or Russian SU-24's in the back for that matter. in retrospect Turkey is somewhat of an Backstab country.    my favourite remark still is Erdogan calling Iran "and its allies" in Syria being busy with Genocide.

i mean, Erdogan as an Turk should know whats genocide is right?. *cough cough* Armenian genocide.... and oh yes, Turkey was also on the "wrong" side when WW1 kicked off and Russia pretty much showed Turkey every corner of the room. sure, past performances do not gaurantee the future. but i do know Turkey was high on its own bullshit then and today it is again believing itself as the regional "superpower"

back to the point, IF Turkey invades witch i still estimate "likely" at the moment personally. all that hardware in the border region and personell is there for an reason. if they invade, they will run into an gruesome urban warfare with the YPG forces that i'd bet want Turkish blood to flow after their latest operation suppressing the Kurds in Turkey.

Turkish Air power will be defeated in the opening of the invasion, its just an useless undertaking. you got the S-400 battery, the S-300 naval assets, Syrians using the Pantsir-S1 and BUK systems, Russians air asset's, Syrian AF migs that certainly will be there combat effective or not. but i estimate the Russians upgraded at least some to be AA capable. there are too many variables and advanced air defense assets in place to gain air superiority. the Turkish at least need's to "cycle" their air force, meaning they can not commit their full air force to attack at once otherwise they have nothing to send up to react to enemy actions.

do not even get me started on the casualty rate the Turks will take attacking defended positions and pressing into enemy territory. Air superiority is ruled out as it at the least it is contested by the Russians and Syrians. there is no calling in Airstrikes as they are occupied targeting AA sites and other aircraft. so you got artillery witch the Turks might use to pound the initial resistance fortifications they meet but i doubt retaliatory fire is far behind.  Assad and the Russians are not amateurs and they propably already tough the process of invasion trough and how to let it cost the Turks dearly. as the attacker, there are rather great disadvantages.

this whole "invasion" will be an meat grinder for Turkey as soon they go across that border.

Plus the very simple fact that Turkey NATO membership does not cover occupied parts of Cyprus or Duhok in Iraq. I can really see a new "Sukhoi alley" scenario transpiring over Cyprus and possibly Iraq, and that would be the just a start. Turkey is exposed even in their own (real or perceived) borders. Also Turkey is among the few countries that completely lacks any comprehensive/unified air defense network. It's I-HAWKs, Rapiers and.. Stingers. Oh and the usual euroPatriot battery that everybody knows where it's positioned.

I still ain't bought on the idea that Saudi will invade Syria for one the UN won't back it, as well as a few other countries, and then theirs the fact that the RuAF are present in Syria and i don't think the Russian's will want to give up all their hard work for the Saudi's. Then theirs Iran, Hezbollah etc. And lets face it the Saudi's have been getting their arse kicked in Yemen and they are very unlikely to fair any better with battle hardened SAA. It would be pure suicide. Not to mention costly ($$$$$$$$) and with the way oil is at the moment and Saudi currency reserves being eaten up its not a good move. I read an article the other day saying that Saudi will have to face austerity cuts and have around 4yrs left of currency reserves. If they start another war this could be reduced a lot quicker and then the report never took into account of the ongoing Yemen war and the equipment that the Saudi's have lost. Just think of the cost if Saudi were to replace every piece of equipment destroyed during the Yemen war, its must be in the billions of dollars.

d_taddei2 wrote:Just think of the cost if Saudi were to replace every piece of equipment destroyed during the Yemen war, its must be in the billions of dollars.  

For now they are quite OK though. Even before that war they were keeping many of their Abraams in storage and few M60 and AMX30 as well.
Their problem has always been competently manning their huge amount of kit, in a numerically sufficient and efficient manner.

In short, they are a big parking lot of MBTs, IFVs and APCs with a hundreds of LAV III on-order or arriving as we speak (10 bln USD order).

DerWolf wrote:"The unification war", as you previously have said. Yeh it seems the way the Masters of Universe have choosen to reach the NWO is throught a super destructive world war, makes sense.

I should clarify my views by saying that, based on my appraisal of the current world war, the war would be destructive but also "transformative", and it would lead to the victory of the forces of good.

20 Saudi jets arrived/ joined the coalition force at Incirlik base in Turkey

(unconfirmed for the moment)

Solncepek wrote:20 Saudi jets arrived/ joined the coalition force at Incirlik base in Turkey

(unconfirmed for the moment)

Saudi/Turkish/goea maidens´ jets can fly only if RussiaAF lets them...the question is what is Russian planning?


here similar:

http://www.interfax.ru/world/494517

Moscow. 13 February. INTERFAX.RU - Saudi Arabia, reportedly sent troops and fighter jets to a military base Incirlik in Turkey in anticipation of a possible ground invasion in Syria, said on Saturday the British newspaper The Independent.

Thus in the message of the publication it is noted that, according to Kurdish news service "Rudow", Turkey's foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Saturday morning confirmed the transfer of Saudi troops and equipment to Turkey.

"Saudi Arabia has said it is determined to combat "Islamic state" (ISIS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia), indicating a readiness to send and planes, and troops. At each meeting of the coalition opposing ISIS, we stress the need for a comprehensive strategy to result in the fight against ISIS. If we have such a strategy, Turkey and Saudi Arabia can start a ground operation" - quoted Cavusoglu, the Turkish newspaper "Yeni şafak".

Earlier readiness to send ground troops to Syria to combat "Islamic state" declared, in addition to Saudi Arabia, the authorities of the United Arab Emirates.

If this nazis´ green light for goat lovers to slaughter Syrians?

Moscow. 13 February. INTERFAX.RU - U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry stated that the Syrian regime of violating the agreements of the ceasefire fraught with input on Syrian territory "more ground troops".

"If Assad (Syria's President Bashar al-Assad - if) will not perform its obligations, and the Iranians and the Russians will not force him to do what they promised, the members of the international community will not just sit back like fools and watch this," said Kerry in an interview with a Dubai-based Orient TV.

However, he stressed: "There is a possibility that there (in Syria - Interfax) will be an additional ground troops".

U.S. President Barack Obama in his speeches has repeatedly ruled out the presence of the us troops on Syrian territory, but Saudi Arabia and some middle East allies have already declared that is ready to take that step.

The U.S. Secretary of defense ash Carter expressed hope that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will send to Syria the forces to repel the "Islamic state" (a group banned in Russia - if), the Eastern Syrian city of raqqa. On plans for the invasion of Saudi Arabia and Turkey to Syria warned on the eve Assad.

http://www.interfax.ru/world/494486

Saudi jets? Where from? If they were flying from NATO airspace, the bizniss would have been sniffed out by a LOT of people. These, if true, are US planes that will be lent to Soudi Clusterfuck. That's the only way they could fly and not get shot from the VKS air control. Also yeah, and where are they going to strike? over SAA positions? Lel with 20 planes that's just a good way to send your Soudi Warrior to Jennah. One way ticket...

The ceasefire in Syria might be a mistake as the Great Satan is already using it as a pretext to invade Syria: http://www.interfax.ru/world/494486

“U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry stated that the Syrian regime of violating the agreements of the ceasefire fraught with input on Syrian territory “more ground troops”.

“If Assad (Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad – if) will not perform its obligations, and the Iranians and the Russians will not force him to do what they promised, the members of the international community will not just sit back like fools and watch this,” said Kerry in an interview with a Dubai-based Orient TV.”

In my opinion this ceasefire created conditions for foreign powers to make excuses to invade Syria. When (not if, but when) the truce breaks the Syrian government will be blamed for it. And it will be used as a pretext to either officially arm the rebels with heavy weaponry (even with anti-aircraft weapons) or directly invade Syria.

The Syrian government should have kept pressing on when they were winning and not signed any ceasefire agreements that will be later used against it. This is rather similar to the Minsk ceasefire agreement that has been only used against Russia, never against Ukraine.

I expect the US to start screaming about ceasefire violation immediately that the agreement was completed. The "ceasefire" hardly included any of the terrorists groups, it was a worthless exercise, a media stunt. On the ground little will change, the SAA, and allies will keep pressing on to take Aleppo.

Erk wrote:I expect the US to start screaming about ceasefire violation immediately that the agreement was completed. The "ceasefire" hardly included any of the terrorists groups, it was a worthless exercise, a media stunt. On the ground little will change, the SAA, and allies will keep pressing on to take Aleppo.

I agree.

Why the heck did Syria, Iran and Russia agree with this? It was completely useless as it gives the West one more propaganda weapon against the pro-Syrian coalition and a pretext to escalate the situation against the interests of the pro-Syrian coalition.

This ceasefire agreement has very little pros and many cons for Syria.

Erk wrote:I expect the US to start screaming about ceasefire violation immediately that the agreement was completed. The "ceasefire" hardly included any of the terrorists groups, it was a worthless exercise, a media stunt. On the ground little will change, the SAA, and allies will keep pressing on to take Aleppo.

First part looks exactly as I guessed some poste before: no Jordania but Turkey as a  base. Second assumption: not all Syria/Iraq needed but part just ot breed terrorists primary to attack  Russia (as the main goal of  uSS politics).

Potentially also attack on Ukraine as already us doggies in Lithuania were foaming about Russian aggression and real war not a cold one.

US IMHO never will be officially at war. But "private contractors"  ,arab/nato doggie countries cannon fodder yes they will.

Now question is what Russians already planned as a welcome package?


Yet one more Buyan-M heads to Syria..

Small missile ship (IRAS) "Green Dol" project "Buyan-M" soon the black sea fleet will join the Russian group of ships off the coast of Syria, said a source in law enforcement bodies of Crimea.

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20160213/1373860426.html





you might refer to my post jus tbefor ewiht sam enwes

Karl Haushofer wrote:The ceasefire in Syria might be a mistake as the Great Satan is already using it as a pretext to invade Syria: http://www.interfax.ru/world/494486

Karl Haushofer wrote:The ceasefire in Syria might be a mistake as the Great Satan is already using it as a pretext to invade Syria: http://www.interfax.ru/world/494486

“U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry stated that the Syrian regime of violating the agreements of the ceasefire fraught with input on Syrian territory “more ground troops”.

“If Assad (Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad – if) will not perform its obligations, and the Iranians and the Russians will not force him to do what they promised, the members of the international community will not just sit back like fools and watch this,” said Kerry in an interview with a Dubai-based Orient TV.”

In my opinion this ceasefire created conditions for foreign powers to make excuses to invade Syria. When (not if, but when) the truce breaks the Syrian government will be blamed for it. And it will be used as a pretext to either officially arm the rebels with heavy weaponry (even with anti-aircraft weapons) or directly invade Syria.

The Syrian government should have kept pressing on when they were winning and not signed any ceasefire agreements that will be later used against it. This is rather similar to the Minsk ceasefire agreement that has been only used against Russia, never against Ukraine.

Bullshit. He talks to a Dubai Channel. Off course he's going to say crap.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:The ceasefire in Syria might be a mistake as the Great Satan is already using it as a pretext to invade Syria: http://www.interfax.ru/world/494486

“U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry stated that the Syrian regime of violating the agreements of the ceasefire fraught with input on Syrian territory “more ground troops”.

“If Assad (Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad – if) will not perform its obligations, and the Iranians and the Russians will not force him to do what they promised, the members of the international community will not just sit back like fools and watch this,” said Kerry in an interview with a Dubai-based Orient TV.”

In my opinion this ceasefire created conditions for foreign powers to make excuses to invade Syria. When (not if, but when) the truce breaks the Syrian government will be blamed for it. And it will be used as a pretext to either officially arm the rebels with heavy weaponry (even with anti-aircraft weapons) or directly invade Syria.

The Syrian government should have kept pressing on when they were winning and not signed any ceasefire agreements that will be later used against it. This is rather similar to the Minsk ceasefire agreement that has been only used against Russia, never against Ukraine.

Bullshit. He talks to a Dubai Channel. Off course he's going to say crap.

The same crap can and probably will be said elsewhere too.

Interesting that the SAA is getting close enough to one of these oil rat runs to shell it rather than having to attack from the air.

A spate of Daesh oil tankers has been destroyed by the Syrian Army and the country's National Defense Force (NDF) in northeastern Daraa Province in southwestern Syria, media reports said.

The Syrian troops attacked a column of tankers on the road connecting Tal Asheihib al-Janoubi and Tal Asheihib al-Shamali, army sources said, adding that several terrorists guarding the convoy were killed in the fighting.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160213/1034688484/syria-army-daesh.html#ixzz403HD0Pus

Karl Haushofer wrote:Why the heck did Syria, Iran and Russia agree with this? It was completely useless as it gives the West one more propaganda weapon against the pro-Syrian coalition and a pretext to escalate the situation against the interests of the pro-Syrian coalition.

This ceasefire agreement has very little pros and many cons for Syria.

And the question is, why did Putin propose a ceasefire in the first place? He put the date at March 1. The US wanted immediately ceasefire. So they compromised at 1 week. Smeh. Ceasefire ceasefire always ceasefire One should never propose a ceasefire when one is winning. Imagine Stalin proposed a ceasefire with Hitler in 1944 when the USSR was winning That would have given Hitler time to breathe and regroup.

BTW, 20 Saudi F-15s have arrived at Incirlik airbase in Turkey. Saudi invasion in about a day or two.

S-400 is there, I dont know what the saudis are thinking that they will achieve with those jets, easy target for Russia.

DerWolf wrote:S-400 is there, I dont know what the saudis are thinking that they will achieve with those jets, easy target for Russia.

I don't doubt that S-400 is capable of shooting down Saudi jets. But would Russia actually do it? It would be seen as a serious escalation in the West.

A look at the Syrian Army and their loyalty;

http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/why-assads-army-has-not-defected-15190

Karl Haushofer wrote:

DerWolf wrote:S-400 is there, I dont know what the saudis are thinking that they will achieve with those jets, easy target for Russia.

I don't doubt that S-400 is capable of shooting down Saudi jets. But would Russia actually do it? It would be seen as a serious escalation in the West.

If they attack the SAA or it's allies... all bets are off.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

DerWolf wrote:S-400 is there, I dont know what the saudis are thinking that they will achieve with those jets, easy target for Russia.

I don't doubt that S-400 is capable of shooting down Saudi jets. But would Russia actually do it? It would be seen as a serious escalation in the West.

I dont think Russia will tolerate the Saudi offensive. They know that saudis are there to fight Asad not Daesh.

DerWolf wrote:S-400 is there, I dont know what the saudis are thinking that they will achieve with those jets, easy target for Russia.

Assuming Russia dares to shoot down Saudi jets Russians on this forum talk big. If Russians are so tough, they wouldn't have proposed that ceasefire in the first place.

[quote="ultron"]

Karl Haushofer wrote:And the question is, why did Putin propose a ceasefire in the first place? He put the date at March 1. The US wanted immediately ceasefire. So they compromised at 1 week. Smeh. Ceasefire ceasefire always ceasefire One should never propose a ceasefire when one is winning. Imagine Stalin proposed a ceasefire with Hitler in 1944 when the USSR was winning   That would have given Hitler time to breathe and regroup.

BTW, 20 Saudi F-15s have arrived at Incirlik airbase in Turkey. Saudi invasion in about a day or two.

Deploying 20 F-15 (which is yet to be confirmed) does not mean invasion. They will simply stage a media campaign to show the world that they strike IS. And that's what they will do, but that game was lost by both Coalition and Gulf folks since October, when the RuAF deployment, cruise missile attaches and high mission tempo put everyone in their place.

Too little too late.

ultron wrote:Assuming Russia dares to shoot down Saudi jets Russians on this forum talk big. If Russians are so tough, they wouldn't have proposed that ceasefire in the first place.

If they engage IS there's no reason to shoot them down. KSA is not in NATO, so the question is whether they will engage Russian/Iranian ally. So nobody will care if their Eagles gets an S-400 malfunction.

Allowing Saudi jets is Turkey's way of trying to solve the issue of having an air force in the region because, as we all realize now, those S-400s are there itching to take down any Turkish jet. In case the invasion happens it will be interesting to see what Russia will do against this. The first logical answer is the Syrian Air Force and the AA assets on the ground. There's nothing stopping Russia from giving them very capable AA hardware other than Saudi/Turkish bluff thinking they won't do this. The Syrians will be in their full right if they decide to hunt Saudi jets.

Neutrality wrote:Allowing Saudi jets is Turkey's way of trying to solve the issue of having an air force in the region because, as we all realize now, those S-400s are there itching to take down any Turkish jet. In case the invasion happens it will be interesting to see what Russia will do against this. The first logical answer is the Syrian Air Force and the AA assets on the ground. There's nothing stopping Russia from giving them very capable AA hardware other than Saudi/Turkish bluff thinking they won't do this. The Syrians will be in their full right if they decide to hunt Saudi jets.

Another thing to add is, if the Saudis do attack Syria, expect Saudi cities and Saudi oil wells/oil refineries to be hit from Yemen.