Syrian Civil War: News #6

par far wrote:Another thing to add is, if the Saudis do attack Syria, expect Saudi cities and Saudi oil wells/oil refineries to be hit from Yemen.

By what? You need something like a Tochka/Scud to do that. Assuming the Houthis have them, they still need someone who can fire it at the right location.

Neutrality wrote:Allowing Saudi jets is Turkey's way of trying to solve the issue of having an air force in the region because, as we all realize now, those S-400s are there itching to take down any Turkish jet. In case the invasion happens it will be interesting to see what Russia will do against this. The first logical answer is the Syrian Air Force and the AA assets on the ground. There's nothing stopping Russia from giving them very capable AA hardware other than Saudi/Turkish bluff thinking they won't do this. The Syrians will be in their full right if they decide to hunt Saudi jets.

Russia didn't even give MiG-29M2 that Syria ordered before 2011. Is there a chance Russia will give long range air defense to SAA?

Neutrality wrote:By what? You need something like a Tochka/Scud to do that. Assuming the Houthis have them, they still need someone who can fire it at the right location.

They got all that, Scarab and Scud (soviet and nork versions).

Neutrality wrote:

par far wrote:Another thing to add is, if the Saudis do attack Syria, expect Saudi cities and Saudi oil wells/oil refineries to be hit from Yemen.

By what? You need something like a Tochka/Scud to do that. Assuming the Houthis have them, they still need someone who can fire it at the right location.

They have all that and plus more, Iran has given them mid range missiles, I don't think it would be hard to get them long range missiles, I just wish they could get the TOPOL-M, they been using them and with accuracy.

ultron wrote:Russia didn't even give MiG-29M2 that Syria ordered before 2011. Is there a chance Russia will give long range air defense to SAA?

The reason is not what you make it be. Tossing them such advanced aircraft is not that simple. Chances are the Syrians realised operating such an aircraft would beyond their means and delayed delivery. Same for Yak-130.

KiloGolf wrote:

ultron wrote:Russia didn't even give MiG-29M2 that Syria ordered before 2011. Is there a chance Russia will give long range air defense to SAA?

The reason is not what you make it be. Tossing them such advanced aircraft is not that simple. Chances are the Syrians realised operating such an aircraft would beyond their means and delayed delivery. Same for Yak-130.

Another thing is if it is captured it is going right to US, which I don't think Russia wanted that.

Its always good to see the men fighting for their nation and nice to see new vests with SAA.


Rook ‏@2Rook14  14 hours ago
#Syria: PHOTO: Reporter with T-90 "21_24" (2nd T-90 behind it) near the #Tannurah Quarries in #Aleppo.

ultron wrote:

DerWolf wrote:S-400 is there, I dont know what the saudis are thinking that they will achieve with those jets, easy target for Russia.

Assuming Russia dares to shoot down Saudi jets Russians on this forum talk big. If Russians are so tough, they wouldn't have proposed that ceasefire in the first place.

Russia already said things would escalate to a new World War, if the Saudis or anybody attack Syria, so Russia is ready and also Iran has quietly sent 6000 Special Forces to welcome the Saudis or who ever.

franco wrote:Syrians within 35 kms of Tabaqa Military Airport. From this base the main road from Turkey to Raqqa (capital of ISIS) is interdicted by artillery fire. With the Kurds taking the dam at Tishrin and crossing the Euphrates, this should almost completely cut ISIS controlled Syria in two.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-reaches-important-crossroad-in-southern-raqqa/ | Al-Masdar News

This is very good analysis of how important Al-Raqqa is to Syria and it's allies.

The Race To Raqqa Is On - To Keep Its Unity Syria Must Win

By Moon Of Alabama

February 12, 2016 "Information Clearing House" - "Moon Of Alabama" - The race to Raqqa is on. Syria and its allies are competing with the U.S. and its allies to snatch east Syria from the Islamic State.

Raqqa in eastern Syria is held by the Islamic State as are the other cities along the Euphrates towards Iraq. To defeat the Islamic State in Raqqa, Deir Ezzor and other eastern Syrian towns and to liberate them is the aim of all purported enemies of the Islamic State. But this question has to be seen in a larger context.

Could the U.S. and its allies capture Raqqa or Deir Ezzor and with it parts of eastern Syria it could use them as a bargaining chip to gain some negotiation power with Syria and its allies over the future of Syria. Alternatively it create a Sunni state in east-Syria and west-Iraq. Mosul would be part of such a Sunni state and it would probably be put under the tutelage of Turkey. There have been U.S. plans for such a "Sunnistan" and a revision of the Sykes-Picot borders for some time.

For Syria and its allies the upholding of the unity of Syria is a major objective. To leave Raqqa and the eastern oil fields to the U.S. would be a devastating loss. Syria and its allies have therefore to beat the U.S. and its allies in the race to Raqqa and the larger east Syria.

According to Southfront Syria just made the first major move. A brigade of the Syrian Arab Army attacked the positions of the Islamic State along the Ithriyah to Raqqa road. The town Tal Abu Zayhn has been taken on the way to the first objective, the Tabaqah military airport. Additional supporting forces from various allied groups are assembling in Ithriyah to later support the attack.




The U.S. move towards east-Syria is still in preparation. The first U.S. plan was to use the Syrian-Kurdish YPG forces of north-east Syria. These were labeled Syrian Democratic Forces after attaching a few fighters from Arab tribes. These forces would have attacked Raqqa from the north. But the Kurds did not want to invade the Arab lands they would not be able to hold. Their aim is to connect to the Kurdish enclave in north-west Syria along the Turkish border.

The U.S. is coming up with a new plan. There are only sketches visible so far and the following is just somewhat informed speculation.

The U.S. has extended the runway of the agricultural Rumeilan/Abu Hajar airfield (map) in the Kurdish held area in north east Syria to be able to supply larger operations in the wider area:

This location has been chosen because it's just 100 miles (160 kilometers) from ISIS frontline positions and some of its lucrative oil fields, but well within territory held by Kurdish fighters known as the YPG. The runway is being nearly doubled in length from about 2,300 feet to 4,330 feet (700 to 1,320 meters) -- long enough, say, to receive C130 transport planes. A small apron is also being paved.

Some U.S. special operation forces are said to already operate from there. This is the vanguard on a reconnaissance mission.

It was publicly disclosed that one brigade if the U.S. 101st Airborne Division would go to Iraq to train, advise and assist the Iraqi forces for an attack on Mosul.

Some 1,800 soldiers from the 101st’s Headquarters and its 2nd Brigade Combat Team will deploy soon on regular rotations to Baghdad and Irbil to train and advise Iraqi army and Kurdish peshmerga forces who are expected in the coming months to move toward Mosul, the Islamic State group’s de facto headquarters in Iraq.

But Col. Pat Lang was told that two brigades of the 101st would deploy:

I was told today that two brigades of the 101st Airborne Division are going to Iraq, not just one. This probably is related to the Saudi Juggernaut. pl

The Saudi "juggernaut" was the recent announcement that the Saudis would be willing to send troops to Syria. Nobody was, at first, taking that serious but it now starts to make some sense. The Saudis today confirmed their intent:

Saudi’s decision to send troops to Syria in an attempt to bolster and toughen efforts against militants is “final” and “irreversible,” the Saudi military spokesman announced on Thursday.

Brig. Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri, said that Riyadh is “ready” and will fight with its U.S.-led coalition allies to defeat ISIS militants in Syria, however, he said Washington is more suitable to answer questions on further details about any future ground operations.
...
The statement comes as Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman visited NATO headquarters in Brussels to discuss the Syrian civil war.

The Saudis would fight under the control of the one brigade of the 101st airborne that was not announced to go for Mosul. The Saudis would deploy from Saudi Arabia likely via a U.S. controlled airstrip in west Iraq towards Syria while the brigade from the 101st would probably deploy from the Kurdish area in north Iraq through the Kurdish areas in north-east Syria towards Raqqa. Raqqa would thereby be attacked from a north-eastern and a south-eastern. The airport of Rumeilan/Abu Hajar would be one of the major supply bases.

Such a move of forces would be quite large and over relative long distances. But most of the area is desert and modern motorized military equipment could easily cover those distances in a day or two. This would put Saudi troops into Syria. If they would take Raqqa or Deir Ezzor and the eastern Syrian oilfields they would NEVER let go of it unless Syria would bend to the Saudi demand of introducing an Islamist led government.

The plan is workable but it would also instigate a large mobilization of Shia forces and could lead to a bigger conflict. The Russian Prime Minister Medvedev warned today that new Arab forces entering the Syrian war could spark a much wider war.

The Saudi operation was said today to start within two month. The Syrian government forces and their allies will now have to rush to the east to protect the unity of the country. The U.S. for its part may want to hinder the Syrian advantage by whatever means it has, including - possibly - some "erroneous" bombing.

The race for Raqqa, and Syria's future, is on.
-------------------------------------------------------

If the SAA can choke of the rebels in the east into a surrender, at the same time blitz the east of Syria and connect with Iraq (Raqqa), then the Saudi Arabia plan of Sunnistan will be broken. The turkish plan of a buffer zone will be upheald however, the kurds will be the ones who get screwed over by this deal.

If there is a incident with Russia and and Turkish jets during the invasion process, it might also cause a world war 3. This depends on wich side chickens out first during the process.

par far wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

ultron wrote:Russia didn't even give MiG-29M2 that Syria ordered before 2011. Is there a chance Russia will give long range air defense to SAA?

The reason is not what you make it be. Tossing them such advanced aircraft is not that simple. Chances are the Syrians realised operating such an aircraft would beyond their means and delayed delivery. Same for Yak-130.

Another thing is if it is captured it is going right to US, which I don't think Russia wanted.

What would really make sense for Syria is to erect a new base altogether somewhere near Banyas (Tartous-Latakia border area) and station their all their new goodies. Start from scratch with 1 squadron of Yak-130 advanced trainers/light strikers and 1 squadron of MiG-29M. Maybe deploy some OSA-AKM and Buk-M2 and leave the rest for the S-400 or S-300/F bubble of the Russians in the north.

People are talking about Saudis as some sort of credible threat.  They are a joke that can't even handle Yemen.   The only
viable ground forces for this invasion are the Turkish ones.   The Saudis will just pay mercenaries to join them.
This invasion force will not get far into Syria if Russia bombs them.   The Turks are not used to serious resistance whatsoever.
All their raids into Iraq and elsewhere never experienced serious military opposition.  

NATO needs to work on the "save the children" propaganda a bit more to whip its masses into a hysterical frenzy before
Turdogan gets greenlighted for such an invasion.   So the focus should be on the pitch of the NATO propaganda.

Neutrality wrote:

par far wrote:Another thing to add is, if the Saudis do attack Syria, expect Saudi cities and Saudi oil wells/oil refineries to be hit from Yemen.

By what? You need something like a Tochka/Scud to do that. Assuming the Houthis have them, they still need someone who can fire it at the right location.

Saudis are still not flying over Syria. And if they do it will be because VKS chooses to allow them.

The moment Saudis even look at SAA the wrong way they will be very officially blown out of the sky by Russian assets so fast even SAA will be surprised. Period.

If that happens Saudi oil fields will be torched by Russian Navy subs, long range bombers or ballistic missiles. No need to pussyfoot with Houtis on that topic, it would be standard war and anything will go.

And we talked turk topic to death already, the moment the go over the line they are toast. Done.

Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, plan joint attack on Russian and Syrian forces

Confirmed: Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.

We have a confirmation that Saudi Arabia is moving planes to the American nuclear base in Turkey. This week US planes bombed civilians in Aleppo from this same base. Word from Saudi Arabia and Russia is that they expect a full scale Turkish invasion in response to Kurdish YPG consolidation, with American help, of new positions which would block Turkey’s access to its ISIS partners in Syria.
Both high level Russian and Syrian sources contacted this morning have confirmed that a much broader war is imminent.
Turkey has officially announced that they are ready to move into Syria against the US backed YPG who they deem as a terrorist group. Turkey has yet to attack ISIS and is only fighting Kurds with the exception of the Erbil regional group in Iraq. There is conclusive evidence that both Erbil and Ankara are fully behind ISIS.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“They (Saudi military) came, did a reconnaissance of the base. At the moment it is not clear how many planes will come.”
Turkey supplies ISIS in Iraq through the Duhok road aided by the Erbil regime, who have turned against both Baghdad and other Kurdish forces.
From RT.com:
Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country, Ankara said. The base is already used by the US Air Force for their sorties in Syria.

The deployment is part of the US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“At every coalition meeting, we have always emphasized the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group,” he said, referring to IS by an Arabic-language abbreviation.

Cavusoglu spoke to the Yeni Şafak newspaper after addressing a security conference in Munich, Germany, where the Syrian crisis was one of the top issues on the agenda.

“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev © Ekaterina Shtukina
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria

Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.

The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shared goals in Syria, as all three want the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supports Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considers them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.

Russia, which supports the government of Bashar Assad, seeing it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, has warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believes, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev called on his Western counterparts “not to threaten a ground operation” in Syria, stressing that Moscow is doing its utmost to pave the way for a lasting peace in the war-torn country.

Russia and other leading world powers have brought Damascus and a number of rebel groups to negotiations and leveraged them into agreeing to a ceasefire. The agreement, however, remains shaky, as neither side trusts the other, and the unity of the rebel delegation remains questionable. The terrorist groups IS and Al Nusra Front are not part of the talks.

KiloGolf wrote:

par far wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

ultron wrote:Russia didn't even give MiG-29M2 that Syria ordered before 2011. Is there a chance Russia will give long range air defense to SAA?

The reason is not what you make it be. Tossing them such advanced aircraft is not that simple. Chances are the Syrians realised operating such an aircraft would beyond their means and delayed delivery. Same for Yak-130.

Another thing is if it is captured it is going right to US, which I don't think Russia wanted.

What would really make sense for Syria is to erect a new base altogether somewhere near Banyas (Tartous-Latakia border area) and station their all their new goodies. Start from scratch with 1 squadron of Yak-130 advanced trainers/light strikers and 1 squadron of MiG-29M. Maybe deploy some OSA-AKM and Buk-M2 and leave the rest for the S-400 or S-300/F bubble of the Russians in the north.

This can only happen once the war is over, they cannot do something like this right now because it could take of a lot of resources.

Islamic World News ‏@A7_Mirza  15 hours ago
Military Situation in #Syria
February 13, 2016


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbGFG0MUUAATGw8.jpg:large
^^ The Kurds should not be allowed to get any further south (than what is shown with arrows) there by connecting with the other Kurdish enclave. SAA needs to take all the area between these two. Same case for Northern Syrian border. I personally dont want to see the Kurdish forces in the east and west to link up. It will only complicate matters due to the Kurdish connection with the muricans. Untill it becomes absolute necessary, the forces should not be allowed to connect.

SAA offensive in the northern sector cutting right through 'moderate terrorists' areas and making a border with the Kursish forces in the west gives me hope that SAA and allies do realise this. A parallel spear head need to form (and maybe we'll see in near future?) on the eastern side so that the ISIS area is sandwiched between these two flanks and the main column bulldozing ahead to AlBab and all the way to Turkish border.

Solncepek wrote:Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, plan joint attack on Russian and Syrian forces

Confirmed: Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.

We have a confirmation that Saudi Arabia is moving planes to the American nuclear base in Turkey.  This week US planes bombed civilians in Aleppo from this same base.  Word from Saudi Arabia and Russia is that they expect a full scale Turkish invasion in response to Kurdish YPG consolidation, with American help, of new positions which would block Turkey’s access to its ISIS partners in Syria.
Both high level Russian and Syrian sources contacted this morning have confirmed that a much broader war is imminent.
Turkey has officially announced that they are ready to move into Syria against the US backed YPG who they deem as a terrorist group.  Turkey has yet to attack ISIS and is only fighting Kurds with the exception of the Erbil regional group in Iraq.  There is conclusive evidence that both Erbil and Ankara are fully behind ISIS.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“They (Saudi military) came, did a reconnaissance of the base. At the moment it is not clear how many planes will come.”
Turkey supplies ISIS in Iraq through the Duhok  road aided by the Erbil regime, who have turned against both Baghdad and other Kurdish forces.
From RT.com:
Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country, Ankara said. The base is already used by the US Air Force for their sorties in Syria.

The deployment is part of the US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“At every coalition meeting, we have always emphasized the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group,” he said, referring to IS by an Arabic-language abbreviation.

Cavusoglu spoke to the Yeni Şafak newspaper after addressing a security conference in Munich, Germany, where the Syrian crisis was one of the top issues on the agenda.

“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev © Ekaterina Shtukina
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria

Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.

The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shared goals in Syria, as all three want the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supports Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considers them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.

Russia, which supports the government of Bashar Assad, seeing it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, has warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believes, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev called on his Western counterparts “not to threaten a ground operation” in Syria, stressing that Moscow is doing its utmost to pave the way for a lasting peace in the war-torn country.

Russia and other leading world powers have brought Damascus and a number of rebel groups to negotiations and leveraged them into agreeing to a ceasefire. The agreement, however, remains shaky, as neither side trusts the other, and the unity of the rebel delegation remains questionable. The terrorist groups IS and Al Nusra Front are not part of the talks.

Probably the above situation gave rise to the below situation.

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2 hours ago
Opp report of ~20 #RuAF warplanes in the skies of north Aleppo at the same time

kvs wrote:People are talking about Saudis as some sort of credible threat.  They are a joke that can't even handle Yemen.   The only
viable ground forces

Their infantry and mechanised forces in the region are all conscripts, their glorified M113 APCs and M60 MBTs will not get them that far. It will be a massacre. What could give them an edge initially, is airmobile (air cav) battalions, but that barely wins a war in the medium-long term. Attack helicopter-wise things are even worse (~39 incl. Cobra trainers), given both their commitments in homeland (PKK war) and low numbers of modern/twin-engines choppers (basically less than 20 Cobras/Mangustas are deployable).

Dima wrote:Islamic World News ‏@A7_Mirza  15 hours ago
Military Situation in #Syria
February 13, 2016


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbGFG0MUUAATGw8.jpg:large
^^ The Kurds should not be allowed to get any further south (than what is shown with arrows) there by connecting with the other Kurdish enclave. SAA needs to take all the area between these two. Same case for Northern Syrian border. I personally dont want to see the Kurdish forces in the east and west to link up. It will only complicate matters due to the Kurdish connection with the muricans. Untill it becomes absolute necessary, the forces should not be allowed to connect.

SAA offensive in the northern sector cutting right through 'moderate terrorists' areas and making a border with the Kursish forces in the west gives me hope that SAA and allies do realise this. A parallel spear head need to form (and maybe we'll see in near future?) on the eastern side so that the ISIS area is sandwiched between these two flanks and the main column bulldozing ahead to AlBab and all the way to Turkish border.

The Kurds don't want to come South, they were asked to do so by the US and they said no because they did not want to liberate Arab lands that they would not be able to hold onto. The Kurdish Forces are working with the SAA and Russia(I think Russia is giving the Kurds weapons) to link up the East and West.

Dima wrote:

Solncepek wrote:Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, plan joint attack on Russian and Syrian forces

Confirmed: Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.

We have a confirmation that Saudi Arabia is moving planes to the American nuclear base in Turkey.  This week US planes bombed civilians in Aleppo from this same base.  Word from Saudi Arabia and Russia is that they expect a full scale Turkish invasion in response to Kurdish YPG consolidation, with American help, of new positions which would block Turkey’s access to its ISIS partners in Syria.
Both high level Russian and Syrian sources contacted this morning have confirmed that a much broader war is imminent.
Turkey has officially announced that they are ready to move into Syria against the US backed YPG who they deem as a terrorist group.  Turkey has yet to attack ISIS and is only fighting Kurds with the exception of the Erbil regional group in Iraq.  There is conclusive evidence that both Erbil and Ankara are fully behind ISIS.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“They (Saudi military) came, did a reconnaissance of the base. At the moment it is not clear how many planes will come.”
Turkey supplies ISIS in Iraq through the Duhok  road aided by the Erbil regime, who have turned against both Baghdad and other Kurdish forces.
From RT.com:
Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country, Ankara said. The base is already used by the US Air Force for their sorties in Syria.

The deployment is part of the US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“At every coalition meeting, we have always emphasized the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group,” he said, referring to IS by an Arabic-language abbreviation.

Cavusoglu spoke to the Yeni Şafak newspaper after addressing a security conference in Munich, Germany, where the Syrian crisis was one of the top issues on the agenda.

“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev © Ekaterina Shtukina
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria

Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.

The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shared goals in Syria, as all three want the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supports Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considers them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.

Russia, which supports the government of Bashar Assad, seeing it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, has warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believes, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev called on his Western counterparts “not to threaten a ground operation” in Syria, stressing that Moscow is doing its utmost to pave the way for a lasting peace in the war-torn country.

Russia and other leading world powers have brought Damascus and a number of rebel groups to negotiations and leveraged them into agreeing to a ceasefire. The agreement, however, remains shaky, as neither side trusts the other, and the unity of the rebel delegation remains questionable. The terrorist groups IS and Al Nusra Front are not part of the talks.

Probably the above situation gave rise to the below situation.

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha  2 hours ago
Opp report of ~20 #RuAF warplanes in the skies of north Aleppo at the same time

This is why Russia sendthe SU 35s to Syria, I think we will see more Su 30SM or the SU 35s in Syria.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
Yet one more Buyan-M heads to Syria..

Small missile ship (IRAS) "Green Dol" project "Buyan-M" soon the black sea fleet will join the Russian group of ships off the coast of Syria, said a source in law enforcement bodies of Crimea.

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20160213/1373860426.html

Russia needs to have atleast two 21631 in Syrian theatre armed with Yakhonts/Klub so as to see off any NATO adventures in support for their moderate terrorists.


Ivan Sidorenko ‏@IvanSidorenko1  17 hours ago
#Syria #Lajat #SAA #SyrianArmy #Baath Brigade Forces Combing/Searching for terrorist in Lajat Area.


#Syria #Aleppo #NorthernAleppo #Syrian Reporters w/ #SAA #NDF #SyrianArmy #SyrianArabArmy near Tammurah

par far wrote:

Dima wrote:

Solncepek wrote:Breaking: Saudi Arabia moves planes to Turkey, plan joint attack on Russian and Syrian forces

Confirmed: Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.

We have a confirmation that Saudi Arabia is moving planes to the American nuclear base in Turkey.  This week US planes bombed civilians in Aleppo from this same base.  Word from Saudi Arabia and Russia is that they expect a full scale Turkish invasion in response to Kurdish YPG consolidation, with American help, of new positions which would block Turkey’s access to its ISIS partners in Syria.
Both high level Russian and Syrian sources contacted this morning have confirmed that a much broader war is imminent.
Turkey has officially announced that they are ready to move into Syria against the US backed YPG who they deem as a terrorist group.  Turkey has yet to attack ISIS and is only fighting Kurds with the exception of the Erbil regional group in Iraq.  There is conclusive evidence that both Erbil and Ankara are fully behind ISIS.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“They (Saudi military) came, did a reconnaissance of the base. At the moment it is not clear how many planes will come.”
Turkey supplies ISIS in Iraq through the Duhok  road aided by the Erbil regime, who have turned against both Baghdad and other Kurdish forces.
From RT.com:
Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country, Ankara said. The base is already used by the US Air Force for their sorties in Syria.

The deployment is part of the US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

“At every coalition meeting, we have always emphasized the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group,” he said, referring to IS by an Arabic-language abbreviation.

Cavusoglu spoke to the Yeni Şafak newspaper after addressing a security conference in Munich, Germany, where the Syrian crisis was one of the top issues on the agenda.

“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev © Ekaterina Shtukina
Russian PM warns US, Saudis against starting ‘permanent war’ with ground intervention in Syria

Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.

The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shared goals in Syria, as all three want the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supports Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considers them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.

Russia, which supports the government of Bashar Assad, seeing it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, has warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believes, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev called on his Western counterparts “not to threaten a ground operation” in Syria, stressing that Moscow is doing its utmost to pave the way for a lasting peace in the war-torn country.

Russia and other leading world powers have brought Damascus and a number of rebel groups to negotiations and leveraged them into agreeing to a ceasefire. The agreement, however, remains shaky, as neither side trusts the other, and the unity of the rebel delegation remains questionable. The terrorist groups IS and Al Nusra Front are not part of the talks.

Probably the above situation gave rise to the below situation.

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha  2 hours ago
Opp report of ~20 #RuAF warplanes in the skies of north Aleppo at the same time

This is why Russia sendthe SU 35s to Syria, I think we will see more Su 30SM or the SU 35s in Syria.

Give us the blasted source..for once..Solncepek, you've managed to copy paste it all yet your YET again unable to give us the SOURCE.

A long due but good article focusing on the the SAA.  

http://www.nationalinterest.org/print/feature/why-assads-army-has-not-defected-15190

Why Assad's Army Has Not Defected
Kamal Alam



Four years ago, Turkey’s then prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that within in a few weeks he would be praying in Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque, as Assad was about to fall. Similarly, Israel’s most decorated soldier, former Defense Minister Ehud Barak, predicted that Assad and his military would be toppled within weeks.  That was at the beginning of 2012, when there were no Iranian soldiers on the ground or Russian planes in the skies.

As another round of Geneva peace talks collapses and the world wonders what’s next for Syria, it is time to begin with the warnings of Henry Kissinger and Zbignew Brzezinski. Kissinger and Brzezinski, the most seasoned and influential U.S. policymakers on the Middle East since World War II, have gone against popular opinion and stated that President Bashar al-Assad has more support than all the opposition groups combined.

It is no secret that the Saudis and Qataris, with full U.S. support, have tried to bribe some of Assad’s innermost circles to defect. The all-important professional military cadre of the Syrian Arab Army, however, has remained thoroughly loyal.

The Syrian Arab Army was mostly a conscript force with only about eighty thousand professionals in its ranks. At the start of the war, much was made of the “defections” of thousands of officers, but these were mere conscripts who never wanted to be in the army in the first place, and would also have done anything to escape conscription in peacetime. The professional ranks, meanwhile, are still very strong and religiously pluralistic. When the Syrian opposition talks about a future pluralistic Syria, they fail to realize that while they may theoretically be pluralists in Geneva, Washington and Vienna, their representatives on the ground are allied with the most sectarian terrorist groups the Middle East has ever seen.

The Syrian Arab Army has held its own for more than five years. Its numbers might have been depleted, as is normal for any wartime military, but a close glance at its military reveals that its core, perhaps unexpectedly to many, is Sunni. The current minister of defense, Fahd al-Freij, is one of the most decorated officers in Syrian military history and hails from the Sunni heartland of Hama. The two most powerful intelligence chiefs, Ali Mamlouk and Mohammad Dib Zaitoun, have remained loyal to the Syrian government—and are both Sunnis from influential families. The now-dead and dreaded strongman of Syrian intelligence, Rustom Ghazaleh, who ruled Lebanon with an iron fist, was a Sunni, and the head of the investigative branch of the political directorate, Mahmoud al-Khattib, is from an old Damascene Sunni family. Major General Ramadan Mahmoud Ramadan, commander of the Thirty-Fifth Special Forces Regiment, which is tasked with the protection of western Damascus, is another high-ranking Sunni, as is Brigadier General Jihad Mohamed Sultan, the commander of the Sixty-Fifth Brigade that guards Latakia.

The history of the Syrian Army that Hafez al-Assad built is instructive today. As president, the elder Assad brought senior members of the Syrian Air Force into the military high command. Naji Jamil (another Sunni) served as air force chief from 1970 to 1978 and was promoted to the General Staff committee overseeing defenses on the Iraqi border. Another air force commander was Muhammad al-Khuli, who until 1993 held coveted logistical positions between Damascus and Lebanon. Other prominent officers above the rank of Brigadier in military and civil defense positions post-2000 were Sunnis, including Rustom Ghazaleh, Hazem al Khadra and Deeb Zaytoun. Since 1973, the strategic tank battalions of the Seventieth Armored Brigade, stationed near al-Kiswah near Damascus, have had rank-and-file Alawis under the command of Sunni officers. As well, two of the most decorated officers who rose to be Chief of General Staff under Bashar al-Assad were Sunnis: Hassan Turkmani and Hikmat Shehabi.

From the 1970s until the 1990s, the Syrian Arab Army had a mandate to stabilize Lebanon. During these years, it worked to outmaneuver both the IDF and the U.S. Marines by supporting various proxies in Lebanon. In post-Saddam Iraq, the Americans could never understand which elements of both the Sunni and Shia insurgencies were supported by Syrian military intelligence, much of this owing to the stealth with which the Syrian Army controlled various Iraqi agents dating back to the Lebanese civil war.

The Syrian Arab Army is also the only Arab army with multiple Christians serving as generals. The most famous of these was Daoud Rajha, the Greek Orthodox army chief of staff. The two most influential Lebanese Christian leaders, now on the verge of becoming the next president of Lebanon, are Michel Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh, who are also allies of the Syrian Arab Army and President Assad. Deir al-Zour is an entirely Sunni city which has held out against ISIS encirclement for two years—and is commanded by the Druze General Issam Zahreddine.

The fact remains: The moderate Syrian opposition only exists in fancy suits in Western hotel lobbies. It has little military backing on the ground. If you want to ask why Assad is still the president of Syria, the answer is not simply Russia or Iran, but the fact that his army remains resilient and pluralistic, representing a Syria in which religion alone does not determine who rises to the top. The military also represent as challenge against the spread of terrorism, which is why three of the top British generals of the last five years have openly called for the recognition that the Syrian Arab Army, loyal to President Assad, is the only force capable of defeating ISIS and Al Qaeda in the Levant.

Kamal Alam is a Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London and a Syrian Military Analyst advising several Damascus-based family offices.

@ par far

Russia need to bring in their MiG-29SMTs as they have been in service for pretty good years and the pilots will be well versed with it.




Btw, is there anyone who believe (I'd already expressed it a few times earlier) that Russia needs to have a forward operating base in Iran to cater for the Saudi's and Qatari's in support of the Syrian counter-terrorist campaign and for supporting the Yemeni's?

The response to Saudi incursion near Syrian border should not be just to bolster the forces to fight the Saudi's along the Syrian border or inside Syria (in both of these cases anyway, Russia/Syria/Iran will act), but the response to such an escalation should be near the Saudi border and on Saudi soil/airspace!

One thing is for sure, once the Saudi's enter the ring, oil price will be rising, and once F-15 start falling out of sky due to technical error, the oil prices will shoot up further....it will progress as such...