The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

Apparently UA toolmakers got orders for mortars

Looks like Yats is history

KIEV, March 21. /TASS/. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has agreed to step down on condition that his party, People’s Front, retains to ministerial posts, with Arsen Avakov and Pavlo Petrenko continuing as interior and justice ministers, respectively, Ukraine’s news outlet Apostrof said on Monday citing well-informed sources.

Apart from that, according to Apostrof, the People’s Front wants to have its speaker in the Verkhovna Rada (parliament). So far, the candidate for the latter position has not yet been named as this issue is being discussed. Possible candidates are Andrei Parubiy, the current first deputy speaker, and Maxim Burbak, the leader of the People’s Front faction.

According to the source, Yatsenyuk plans to announce his resignation at a government meeting on Wednesday. On the same day, the prop-presidential force, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, plans to hold a congress which is expected to support the candidature of Verkhovna Rada speaker Vladimir Groisman as Ukraine’s next prime minister. Parliament voting on that matter is planned for March 24.

Leader of the pro-presidential Petro Poroshenko Bloc faction in Ukraine’s parliament Yuri Lutsenko said on Sunday he hopes the parliament will hold an extraordinary session on March 24 to send the Arseniy Yatsenyuk government to resignation. "I hope next week, probably on Thursday (March 24), we will be able to hold an extraordinary session to vote for a new prime minister, a new government and a new program of actions and finally put an end to the profound crisis stemming from the inaction of the current government," he wrote on his Facebook account.

The full article at http://tass.ru/en/world/864097

I never quite understood what is the point of this ridiculous Savchenko trial, it only serves to demonise Russia and make a martyr out of a nutcase. I still believe the captured "volunteers" and paramilitaries should have been given a chance to die for their country. In combat or not, doesn't matter. Heroes 101, Peremoga last stand story.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:WWII according to #Ukraine MSM.

Yeah the Italians just weren't part of the invasion. SMH....

...Get this, Ukrying's SBU is claiming Russia is behind the Brussels attack...

https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/712317385148112896

magnumcromagnon wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:WWII according to #Ukraine MSM.

Yeah the Italians just weren't part of the invasion. SMH....

...Get this, Ukrying's SBU is claiming Russia is behind the Brussels attack...

"Head of Ukraine’s SBU Security Service Vasyl Hrytsak said he would not be surprised if it turned out later that Russia’s special services were beyond Tuesday blasts in Brussels, adding that this is may be an element of a hybrid war waged by the Kremlin."

Ooo yeah... http://www.unian.info/politics/1297164-brussels-attacks-may-be-element-of-russias-hybrid-war-sbu-chief.html

Yeah i read that...

KoTeMoRe wrote:Yeah i read that...

...It's a hellova drug...

Militarov wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:WWII according to #Ukraine MSM.

Yeah the Italians just weren't part of the invasion. SMH....

...Get this, Ukrying's SBU is claiming Russia is behind the Brussels attack...

"Head of Ukraine’s SBU Security Service Vasyl Hrytsak said he would not be surprised if it turned out later that Russia’s special services were beyond Tuesday blasts in Brussels, adding that this is may be an element of a hybrid war waged by the Kremlin."

Ooo yeah... http://www.unian.info/politics/1297164-brussels-attacks-may-be-element-of-russias-hybrid-war-sbu-chief.html

The poor people of Ukraine with persons like him in government.

Request from either Khepesh or Ispan, or anyone who can dig up the articles of how the extra-chromosone having Pukrainian Tartar savages who were boasting about bringing hell to the Russians in the Kerch Strait, because we have some Turkish shenanigans related to it which looks all too coincidental:

Turkish cargo ship collided with the bridge towers under construction worker in the Kerch Strait, the course of the construction of the bridge to the Crimea state of emergency has not affected. This was announced on Wednesday told Tass source in the Information Centre "Crimean bridge."

...Maybe the Russkies need to serve a plate of carved Turkey, with a side of beef Tartar to Ukrying...

Minsk to Host New Round of Trilateral Talks on Ukraine Wednesday

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160323/1036792455/minsk-trilateral-talks-ukraine.html#ixzz43i8hytnF

magnumcromagnon wrote:Request from either Khepesh or Ispan, or anyone who can dig up the articles of how the extra-chromosone having Pukrainian Tartar savages who were boasting about bringing hell to the Russians in the Kerch Strait, because we have some Turkish shenanigans related to it which looks all too coincidental:

I remember reading about Dzhemilev saying that they had "a plan" to close Kerch Straights. It was only last week but I don't remember where, possibly 112, but such articles I don't really pay much attention to. But in retrospect it could be seen that there is collusion between Crimean Tatar dissidents in Ukraine and Turks to wage a sort of war on Russia. Last year he had said that UA had "right to blow up the bridge", but last week it was more like a real plan and not bombastic statements. This is what he said last year http://antifashist.com/item/dzhemilev-predlagaet-vzorvat-most-cherez-kerchenskij-proliv.html

magnumcromagnon wrote:Request from either Khepesh or Ispan,

I am glad someone asked for me, as I am a bit discouraged from posting here because I never got any feedback regarding my questions or posts.

Khepesh already answered that. I am monitoring very closely what is being said on both sides and it seems as Misnk has outlived its usefulness as the Ukrainian side is stalling to win time and put the blame of the rupture on the Russians. Zakharchenko was even more clear, said as soon as the weather improves, Kiev will attack.

Zakharchenko is to appoint "political leaders" to all DNR state institutions in order to strengthen ideology while the war is still fought. This has several functions. Apart from the clearly stated function of essentially stiffening morale behind the front lines, because these new "political leaders" will be veterans who have fought and been wounded, it will give them employment, and Zakharchenko has stated that these men will not be abandoned as they are in Ukraine, and it will also give credibiilty to their new positions as they have been at the front. This is not the return of the Soviet politruk, only a sort of reminder to those who work in offices about what they work towards. http://dan-news.info/politics/zaxarchenko-sozdal-v-organax-vlasti-dolzhnost-politrukovoditelya-ee-zajmut-komissovannye-bojcy-dnr.html

Do you forum lads think that Kiev will try another ATO, Any time soon?

VladimirSahin wrote:Do you forum lads think that Kiev will try another ATO, Any time soon?

Well 100+ artillery pieces were refubrished during winter and reactivated some retired systems. And they seems have started concentrating troops last few weeks. Seems very possible.

Yeah my granduncle also dusted off his sweatpants, but i doubt he's going to run for the Olympics...on the other side this is Edina Ukraina so they're fit fo the Special Olympics. Oh well more videos for Liveleak and LostArmour.

Ispan wrote:I am glad someone asked for me, as I am a bit discouraged from posting here because I never got any feedback regarding my questions or posts.  

Khepesh already answered that. I am monitoring very closely what is being said on both sides and it seems as Misnk has outlived its usefulness as the Ukrainian side is stalling to win time and put the blame of the rupture on the Russians. Zakharchenko was even more clear, said as soon as the weather improves, Kiev will attack.

I don't answer your question because I don't know them. And regarding feedback, if we still had the reputation system we had before, I would surely vote in your posts.

Ispan wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:Request from either Khepesh or Ispan,

I am glad someone asked for me, as I am a bit discouraged from posting here because I never got any feedback regarding my questions or posts.  

Khepesh already answered that. I am monitoring very closely what is being said on both sides and it seems as Misnk has outlived its usefulness as the Ukrainian side is stalling to win time and put the blame of the rupture on the Russians. Zakharchenko was even more clear, said as soon as the weather improves, Kiev will attack.

Nowadays I follow you and Khepesh quite closely for the continuous updates. Lack of responses doesn't mean people are ignoring you. I am strapped for time these days and I don't post a lot. Same goes for PapaDragon, JohninMK, and anyone else that is on here that posts a lot of info.

Now as for the weather, are the Hohols waiting for the seasons to change or are they looking for a small break in the cold so they can press forward their attack? I'd imagine that it would depend how long the Hohols would anticipated this operation would take.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Ispan wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:Request from either Khepesh or Ispan,

I am glad someone asked for me, as I am a bit discouraged from posting here because I never got any feedback regarding my questions or posts.  

Nowadays I follow you and Khepesh quite closely for the continuous updates. Lack of responses doesn't mean people are ignoring you. I am strapped for time these days and I don't post a lot. Same goes for PapaDragon, JohninMK, and anyone else that is on here that posts a lot of info.

I value and appreciate your posts too.

JohninMK wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Ispan wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:Request from either Khepesh or Ispan,

I am glad someone asked for me, as I am a bit discouraged from posting here because I never got any feedback regarding my questions or posts.  

Nowadays I follow you and Khepesh quite closely for the continuous updates. Lack of responses doesn't mean people are ignoring you. I am strapped for time these days and I don't post a lot. Same goes for PapaDragon, JohninMK, and anyone else that is on here that posts a lot of info.

I value and appreciate your posts too.

I read all the posts in both the Ukraine and Syria thread/s, as should all members. However I am on the same irritating page as Ivan in that I am completely strapped for time these days, juggling military selections and a 10 hour a day working week has made it nigh impossible for me to even post the most rudimentary of info or feedback. I still absolutely appreciate our most active members here though, and I wish I could dedicate more of my time.

Ispan wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:Request from either Khepesh or Ispan,

I am glad someone asked for me, as I am a bit discouraged from posting here because I never got any feedback regarding my questions or posts.  

Khepesh already answered that. I am monitoring very closely what is being said on both sides and it seems as Misnk has outlived its usefulness as the Ukrainian side is stalling to win time and put the blame of the rupture on the Russians. Zakharchenko was even more clear, said as soon as the weather improves, Kiev will attack.

I hope the HaHols do attack and I hope the NAF don't just drive them out of Donetsk and Luhansk but drive them right out of the whole of NovoRossiya it would totally destroy their military complex and greatly strengthen a independent NovoRossiya and give Crimea a more friendlier neighbour

Odessa journalist Yuri Tkachev has written about when he thinks the Kiev offensive will take place, and what will happen. This is a paraphrased summary of his article with most of the colorful language removed, and I edited/added elements simply for clarity. http://searchnews.info/opinions/116209-nastuplenie-vsu-na-donbasse-kak-eto-budet.html

Tkachev says that the offensive planned by Kiev will happen sooner or later, and on a pre-arranged signal flares will rise over the front lines and the entire ATO armored armada, carefully put together and deployed over the years, will move into full scale offensive. He says that some think it will happen this April or May, but he thinks not before this Autumn, or not even until Spring, or later, next year. He says that Kiev strategists will have every reason to believe in success due to numerical advantage, at key areas a five fold advantage, excellent knowledge of VSN deployments along the front due to the constant and seemingly meaningless attacks that occur now, attacks to probe, to draw out reserves, to test reaction times etc. They will be able to make river crossings and storm defensive locations, and they will have the benefit of military intelligence of what they face. It is they who make these probing attacks going forward, not VSN, so the initiative is with them. They will also have the advantage while advancing of the information and actions of spies and DRG, some of whom will have mingled with any refugees heading to Russian border.

He says that at first everything will seem fine for Kiev, and as they have the advantage of the initiative it will be expected that they will have some success. TV audiences will see the reports of Kiev journalists standing in front of the entry signs to Donetsk, Gorlovka, Yasinovataya and Dokuchaevsk and telling how the columns of their troops are advancing to drive the invaders out. He says they will capture the airport, and some brave Kiev politicians may even go there to lay wreaths to the "cyborgs".

He says that reaction from EU will not be favorable, and that Kiev has broken Minsk will not be liked, but they will see the advancing ukrops and likely refrain from serious words of condemnation. America will be more loyal to Kiev, but not 100%. He then says about when the advance goes well initially, who will care about EU and America, but then worrying signs will be appearing for Kiev. That even while there have been losses for VSN, territory lost to the enemy, they will not be in any rout and will be withdrawing in contact in a planned manner. It will be seen that VSN artillery are firing with great accuracy and that important targets will be hit, and in ukrops rear areas there will be strange explosions. Kiev will also wonder why VSN have more tanks that intelligence has previously suggested.

He gives no time frame for how long things will seem to be going good for Kiev, personally I think between one and three days, but not longer. He says that while for a time the names of settlements in the TV broadcasts will change, then they will stop changing as no more advances are made. More and more ambulances will be seen rushing back with casualties, social media reports from ukrops at the front will begin to show signs of confusion, like "Where are the reinforcements, where are the spare parts, where is the ammunition, what happens on our flanks".

Tkachev does not see a sudden collapse such as at Ilovaisk or Krasny Luch, but that their attacks will stall, VSN DRG will attack their headquarters and cut lines of communication, creating chaos and confusion. He says that for a few days Kiev will try to pretend that all is okay, as at Debaltsevo,  but it will be the beginning of the end and events will happen so fast that their command will not have time to respond.

He continues that reinforcements will be thrown at the critical areas, but they will be destroyed in a "turkey shoot". Their communications will fail, electronic jammed, but when they attempt to reach their forces on landlines, they will only hear the mocking tones of VSN soldiers at the other end. Then suddenly reinforcements will no longer be needed and the word "evacuation" will be heard, but it will be too late and control will be lost. In Russian media will then be seen mounds of captured ammunition and columns of unkempt prisoners, and corpses, corpses, corpses.....

Then the counter offensive will start, and who knows when or where this will end....

Tkachev ends by saying that this can still be avoided.

It is not rocket science to envisage this scenario, but as far as it goes in general terms with no specifics of what may happen at any particular parts of the front, it is reasonable scenario.