The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

Report is half-filled with wishful thinking IMHO. Kiev is running out of time as they need to make a decision before the internal situation implodes and decide fast. Did you see the GDP figures? Minus 10%. Just think about that number for a second. As days go by less and less people believe that the economy is being ripped apart by the bad Russian bear. The attention on blatant corruption is getting bigger and who knows what follows next. Perhaps counter-revolutionary sentiments will break out and the SBU will have to press charges against half of the population for state treason. If anything like that happens, Donbass will be the least of their worries.

Well, it's only a scenario from a journalist, but I would prefer all of it to become true and not just half. Yeah, I see all the figures, and I do think that time runs out for them and that they need to act sooner rather than later, and I cannot go with Tkachev thinking it may last until beyond Spring 2017, much too long.

Neutrality wrote:Report is half-filled with wishful thinking IMHO. Kiev is running out of time as they need to make a decision before the internal situation implodes and decide fast. Did you see the GDP figures? Minus 10%. Just think about that number for a second. As days go by less and less people believe that the economy is being ripped apart by the bad Russian bear. The attention on blatant corruption is getting bigger and who knows what follows next. Perhaps counter-revolutionary sentiments will break out and  the SBU will have to press charges against half of the population for state treason. If anything like that happens, Donbass will be the least of their worries.

Agreed.

And there is one simple fact: ''volunteers'' units aside, UAF is not military structure capable of executing any type of large attack without collapsing under it's own weight. I would be surprised if morale is anything above abysmal.

Those are not troops that will win anything.

Yet Poroshenko has cancelled the mobilisations because he says there is the money to pay volunteers a decent wage, and that sufficient men have come forward. In Donetsk there is friction between Zakharchenko and Khodakovsky and their men brief against each other. Vladimir Timofeev, "Babai" who was with Pavel Dremov, now sits in Lugansk MGB basement and five others seem to have been dismissed and may also be arrested. Surely with all these ukrops volunteers coming forward and infighting in Donbass, now is the time for Kiev to strike. Well, maybe Poroshenko has or has not cancelled mobilisation, or that the problems in Donbass are superficial, but it is not wise to underestimate Kiev. Besides, Tkarchev has written a scenario were VSN wins, is that not good.....

Khepesh wrote:Yet Poroshenko has cancelled the mobilisations because he says there is the money to pay volunteers a decent wage, and that sufficient men have come forward.

Poroshenko is lying. All reports match in that Ukrainian forces are short of personnel. They do not call more drafts simply because they already scrapped the bottom of the recruit barrel and any further levvies would cause unrest. Ukraine forces already maxed out and now are on steady decline, not so much from casualties, though that has an impact, but on people completing their tour of duty and leaving the ranks. Again the junta shoot itself on the foot, in order to prevent unrest they had to promise to discharge those that were under the colours at the start of the war, and promise draftees would serve only for a year or so.

In material they are also past the max already. Production is not enough to cover losses of armored vehicles. Artillery barrels can be replaced, but tank engines get worn out, I recall there was some story about asking Germany for replacement engines for the BTR. Regarding ammunition, they do not produce ammunition and the big stocks are depleted. There's no one that can supply Soviet calibers ammunition, and they have no money to buy hundreds of Western artillery pieces and they shells.

They should have attacked in August last year. They have the resources for one last major offensive, but if they wait longer, they will get weaker while the novorussians would get stronger.

At least 2830 Ukrainian soldiers KIA so far.

http://memorybook.org.ua/

Ultron, I already answered that a few pages back. Search my posts:

Seems Ukrops are firing an artillery barrage tonight, from burbuja.info

pete john ‏@petejohn10 60 miin ago

#DONBAS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR HELL FROM UKIES RELEASED ON DONETSK TONITE AND EVERYNITE FROM THEM #MINSKBREAKERS
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#DONBAS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR DONBAS SHUDDERS TONITE FROM HEAVY UKIE SHELLING #MINSKBREAKERS
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---------- Post added 24-mar-2016 at 21:17 ----------

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Today's Kiev Regime Violations = 46 #donetsk #donbas #donbass #lugansk #luhansk #Debaltseve #BBCNEWS #CNN #reuters

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Ispan wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:Request from either Khepesh or Ispan,

I am glad someone asked for me, as I am a bit discouraged from posting here because I never got any feedback regarding my questions or posts.  

Khepesh already answered that. I am monitoring very closely what is being said on both sides and it seems as Misnk has outlived its usefulness as the Ukrainian side is stalling to win time and put the blame of the rupture on the Russians. Zakharchenko was even more clear, said as soon as the weather improves, Kiev will attack.

I don't answer most posts, but I do read them, and appreciate them, including yours!

Ukraine's Poroshenko bloc, Batkivshchyna, Radical Party begin new coalition talks
World
March 24, 18:43 UTC+3
On Friday, March 25, representatives of the four factions will begin working on a new coalition agreement

http://tass.ru/en/world/864946

KIEV, March 24. /TASS/. Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko Bloc, the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party, the People’s Front and the Radical Party have agreed to begin negotiations on a new coalition, Radical Party leader Oleh Lyahsko said on Thursday.

He noted though that his party’s participation depended on meeting a number of requirements. "Among our requirements are renouncing special status of Donbass, raising retirement age, abolishing pensions taxation and cancelling agricultural land sale," he said.

According to Lyashko, on Friday, March 25, representatives of the four factions will begin working on a new coalition agreement.

He added that "so far the Samopomich (Self-Reliance) party was not prepared to take part in forming a new coalition." "However, they said they would be able to vote for a candidate to the prime minister’s seat, if their proposals were taken into consideration," he said.

Lyashko also noted that a coalition comprising the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, the People’s Front and non-affiliated parliamentarians was considered, adding that he personally was opposed to this option.

Over 60,000 tons of humanitarian aid delivered to Ukraine’s south-east since August 2014
Russian Politics & Diplomacy
March 24, 13:57 UTC+3
The 50th convoy is currently being unloaded on the territory of the self-proclaimed Donbass republics


More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/864806

Fierce fighting for control over Donetsk - Gorlovka highway continuing in Donbass

https://dninews.com/article/fierce-fighting-control-over-donetsk-gorlovka-highway-continuing-donbass

Thursday, March 24, 2016 - 08:31

Ukrainian journalists report about the ongoing fierce fighting between the AFU and the DPR Army. They are fighting for control over the highway connecting Donetsk and Gorlovka. A few days ago the Ukrainians, despite the Minsk Agreements, launched an attack and took up positions in the industrial area of Avdeevka, which gave them the opportunity to shell the road.

‘Our units have actually cut the connection between Gorlovka and Donetsk here,’ said the journalist of the “1+1” TV channel Anatoly Tsaplienko.

‘Today was one of the worst nights in the industrial area of Avdeevka,’ said the journalist of the “Inter” channel Roman Bocskai, claiming that in the battle there had been used tanks and motorised artillery systems.

According to the Kiev media, the Ukrainians are still holding their positions, threatening the traffic on the highway.

DONi News Agency

Head of National Guard refused to suppress riots in Western Ukraine

Lots of news on this site.


https://dninews.com/article/head-national-guard-refused-suppress-riots-western-ukraine

Thursday, March 24, 2016 - 13:28

The commander of the National Guard of Ukraine Yury Allerov is against using the National Guard military to prevent illegal extraction of amber in the Rovno region.

The Head of the National Guard stated it at today's press conference in Kiev, reports The Politnavigator.

'There are our citizens there (in the Rovno region), and they do not have weapons, they have shovels ... The use of the troops in the country is clearly defined in the legislation. Today, probably, it will not be quite correct to use the military units directly against those people,’ said Allerov.

According to him, the police can cope with this problem if they work on the detention of the organisers of the illegal mining, not diggers.

Earlier the governor of the Rovno region Vitaly Chugunnikov appealed to the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov with the request to enter the National Guard troops in the region to stop the illegal mining of amber. The stocks of amber in Volyn are estimated as $4 billion worth.

DONi News Agency

Gallery: Latest Ukrainian terror bombing - Makeyevka, DPR, 24.3.
03 24, 2016

https://dninews.com/gallery/gallery-latest-ukrainian-terror-bombing-makeyevka-dpr-243


with a video in English

A document describing the 1926 census of Crimea/Krym, among all the ethnic groups, Ukrainians weren't represented and or listed:

Okay, but Tie Eater is a foreigner, isn't he ? He should had not accept the position of Odessa governor from the beginning.   Or cabinet position is not OK but regional governor is still OK ?

https://www.rt.com/news/337087-saakashvili-foreigners-ukraine-humilating/

Former Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, who was appointed as a governor in Ukraine and brought in several members of his Georgian team to take senior positions, says inviting a foreigner to lead the Ukrainian cabinet would be humiliating.

I really hope the "genius" Putin ,this time do not underestimate its enemies as the idiot
always does. He got caught with pants down in the overthrow of Yakunovych not one time but two fucking times. the coup in kiev in 2014 ,was the SECOND TIME yakunovych was removed from power. and he didn't armed Syria even for the Arab spring in 2011 ,neither the moron predicted the americans will not just stay happy with IRAQ invasion and the only other OBVIOUS place to move was Syria or IRAN. but IRAN was not really an option for NATO for being too big to conquer with Russia covering their rear front. arming them.  

The danger that Donetsk face now is that Islamic extremist from turkey and Syrian and IRAQ war ,ISIS like mercenaries ,suicide bombers have joined the Ukraine side. So MR PUtin the "Genius" better be prepared for a really illegal ,dirty and criminal war the next time. With Chemical weapons and Suicide bombers and modern NATO weapons too.

The ramming on the Crimean Bridge ,why im not surprised about that? but again the incompetence of Russia government in under estimating his enemies will not hesitate to use
the most illegal ,criminal and terror like tactics. So Russia better block any transit of ships to Ukraine in the Azov sea if they are not ready to have escorts to fully monitor every Cargo ship that enters there. Just imagine what will happen if the cargo ship with the Panama flag ,full with very toxic substances "Accidentaly" is sink in the Azov sea or near Crimea to sabotage the
beaches in Crimea with a lethal chemical ?  

If Ukraine start a new full scale offensive in donetsk , Russia should really help Donetsk to totally destroy the invading army. Is obvious they will try to use any military gains in Donetsk
and a Propaganda tool for creating Unity that now they dont have in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine even though is more easier on the military front ,for Russia to handle since its near its borders. Is at the same time far more complex than Syria in the political side. This is because the goal of the bastard Poroshenko and Kiev parliament is not really defeating Russia military. no no.. they know they cant do that. the real Goal is to provoke Russia to invade Ukraine and later through its propaganda media and Americans hollywood help ,show how Russia bomb civilians women and children with their airforce. And those Nuclear reactor close to Donetsk will be a highly potential target for kiev to attack. This is to affect Crimea and create a major environmental crysis later blame it on Russian airforce or Rebels.  So effectively the fight in Ukraine is way more difficult.. because literary Russophobics in Kiev are using its own citizens as hostages.  So when you have hostages in a terrorist controlled building.. you cannot just simply enter there and start shooting , the more Russia move inside Ukraine the more dangerous will be for Ukrainians ,because they will be attacked by kiev to blame Russia. A major ethnic cleansing of Russians could happen too  in all Ukraine if Russia invade. that is ultra nationalist retaliation for Russia invasion.  This is what Kiev wants , hit hard ,force Russia to invade and retreat to the minsk borders and claim Russia invasion and Russia agression.
Then with the help of a major Media operation of all western media + kiev ,demonize Russia and show how its airforce bomb civilians in Ukraine. it will be all a show. People should not forget the malasyan plane false flag incident.. that PRECISELY was shot down by Kiev and later blame it on Russia ,so to get the entire world community against Russia.

The people that realize the offensive of Ukraine ,any full scale war , its objectives is  
NOT TO HOLD Donetsk or Lugansk ,they know it will be impossible for them to hold Donetsk and lugansk for more than a week ,with Russia endless supply of volunteers and weapons .but instead to get Russia officially invade Ukraine with its airforce and start a major propaganda
campaign of how Russia airforce and Russia army ,their artillery is killing ukrainians. The target of kiev offensive is.
1)To help Ukraine boost the patriotism and public support on Poroshenko
. and increase the hate nation wide against Russia.using propaganda they will fabricate.
2) To destroy Putin ,public support in Russia and create unrest.and damage its public image.
either for allowing Donetsk and Lugansk to collapse or for killing civilians that kiev will make sure to blame on Russia.
3)New Round of more stronger Sanctions on Russia.
4)Economic warfare.. to pin down Russia inside Ukraine ,to give them a new Afgan like war.
if Russia army fully invade Donetsk they will retreat a little farther and keep provoking russia to go deeper and deeper until they forced into a vietnam like war. Then Russia will be the one that will have to feed Ukrainians in the zones they control. and not kiev.  

So as it stand down.. kiev needs to feed and pay pensions of the citizens of 95% of its main land territory and Russia only 5% and crimea.


So is not military the objectives of kiev in Donetsk and Lugansk. all the war is a diversion.
the real goal is a Political ,social ,diplomatic and Economic warfare e. Poroshenko wants to artificially create unity in all Ukraine and their propaganda after a new major offensive will do the world. So the most valuable players in any future ukraine offensive will not be the army.. but their journalist reports that will seek to totally discredit not only the Rebels but also Russia.


So the ultimate aim of Poroshenko Is NOT holding territory in Donetsk and Lugansk.
Im sure they aware they cannot defeat the full scale Russian army ,not in a million years.
So a retreat should be in their plans too , they understand they will not hold Russia army
offensive for long ,that the stand not a chance for that. The real Aim is the manipulation
of Ukrainians emotions and Russian citizens emotions , through the help of Actors ,fake
victims and even movies. and to pin down Russia into sink its economy more by
forcing Russia to invade and stay for months or years deep inside Ukraine territory.

Public Opinion is extremely important. if you have any doubt.. look no futher than Crimea.
Favorable public opinion towards Russia ,was what allowed Russia to take it ,without firing a shot. Extremely bad public opinion combined with total hate towards the government can create a revolution. Just like in Egypt ,their citizens in the millions in the streets peacefully protesting ,overthrow 2 dictators in less than a year without firing a shot.  This is what they are trying to change ,to get public support by showing "military victories" even if they are fake and never happened . but Russia needs first to invade. they are begging for Russia to invade to start running their script of Evil Russia killing civilians.


The Ukraine offensive aims at public opinion ,to raise their unity and moral with the government.  and nothing can raise more the morale of a nation that their army defeating their enemies. Why the media will be important to be in the place,to no matter what happens ,to make sure claim victory after it.  Remember how Poroshenko was cheered as Hero after losing Devaltsevo to the Rebels. he told they retreated because minsk 2 agreements .

Seeing the census figures posted has prompted me to to do the same for Odessa, not least because of the lie that continues to be circulated that Odessa is not Russian and that the people are not Russian. I made a long series of detailed posts about this on another forum a year ago, but will only give the very basics here in one post, not 32 pages of posts as before.....

Odessa census for 1897 does not show any "Ukranians" and the closest to any people that could be termed "Ukranian" are the Malorosiy, "Little RUSSIANS", and they are only 9,39% of total population


Here is a snapshot of one page of the "Memory Book" with the details of the victims of the famines in Odessa. Here the name "Ukrainian" makes an appearance, and this is from 1930s.
There are 32 names, of which 23 give ethnicity and the breakdown is below. Of the 9 names with no mention of ethnicity, 8 are either Jewish or probably Jewish. Clearly Jews at still about 30% of the population at this time, were over 50% of the victims we see on this page, which I picked at random. I don't know the reason for that, but it is important to note that "Ukrainians" are a tiny minority.
Russian 10
Jews 9
Ukrainians 2
Poles 1
Germans 1


leaping into the future and the 2001 census and we have this
Ukrainians 61,6 %
Russians 29,0 %
Bulgarians 1,3 %
Jews 1,2 %
Moldavians 0,7 %
Belorussians 0,6 %
Armenians 0,4 %
Poles 0,2 %

The reasons for the dramatic drop in Jews is obvious, and also very many left after 1991. But there is a big anomaly in that in just 70 or so years how can Russians drop to 29% and "Ukrainians" rise to 61,6%, it is not credible. The answer is that many Russians were browbeaten over that time into thinking they were "Ukrainian" when they were not.

In 2014 an informal census was made about who people were in Odessa by an Odessite whose family had lived there since early 19th Century. He asked people what they put down on census for ethnicity, and many say "Ukrainian", but he knows who these people are and gets the answers, "Because I have Ukrainian passport" and "But we have always been told we are Ukrainian so we must be". He confronts them by saying that he knows their families are Russian, have always been Russian. They admit this and cannot then give a rational response to why they say on census they are "Ukrainian", but it is the result of Ukrainianisation of people who are Russian, and simply laziness in that their passport is Ukraine, so that is what they answer, even if it is a lie as far as ethnicity is concerned. Back in 1897 nobody had any reason to lie on census, but in modern times they do, so what is the real population of Odessa...

I have said this many times before.
I will repeat it again.

"Sooner or later and one way or another, Ukraine will be back under Russian control".

The lack of Ukrainians representation in early soviet times is precisely because no one
called itself Ukrainian in those times. They were called Ruriks and Ukraine name was little Russia.
Citizens of Ukraine their passport ,the name used to identify their region under early soviet times was "little Russia" and not Ukraine. This was told by Putin himself. And this is why Putin told one time that Ukraine was not a country but a region of Russia ,just like Urals today and Siberia is.

If the Siberians one day split from moscow and younger generations brainwashed with a rewrite of history ,after  50 to 100 years they will believe they are "siberians" and not Russians.

It was only in 1918 when Ukraine name began to exist. and once soviets took control of the Russian empire ,because to split it in republics ,creating Ukraine and Belarus. Soviet bolsehvick were the ones who began the partition of Russia in sections and governors based on ethnic groups. This was done probably to make it more difficult for a counter revolution to overthrow them.

Ukrainians and Belarusians are all Russians in reality ,split by politics only. and only the ethnic tatars and other minorities muslins in Russia are not ethnic Russians ,but their territories were conquered by Russia for many generations.

Debt debt debt debt

https://www.rt.com/business/337150-russia-ukraine-court-bond/

Russia demands $683,333 daily interest on Ukraine’s $3bn overdue debt

Moscow wants Kiev to pay interest daily on its $3 billion defaulted bond, Bloomberg reports after viewing court documents. Ukraine failed to pay the debt on December 20 and the penalty fee has grown to about $66.3 million as of Friday.

Russia is demanding more than the 7.75 percent interest Ukraine offered in its debt restructuring, which also included a 20 percent debt haircut. According to the court documents, quoted by Bloomberg, Russia’s lawyers suggest returning to the original five percent rate, equivalent to $427,083 a day, if the court in London decides eight percent interest is too high.

On other news, this is not a fake, comes from a reliable source

http://debka.com/article/25319/Israeli-security-firm%E2%80%99s-advice-on-Brussels-airport-security-unheeded

After the attack, it turned out that Ukrainian security guards, who had been hired and posted at the airport, had mostly deserted their stations. The few remaining there had carried out only cursory checks.

From burbuja.info

Storm Bringer ‏@StormBringer15 2 minhace 2 minutos

#BREAKING UAF troops & armor amassing near #Dokuchayevsk. UAF offensive seems to be coming soon #ukraine #nato #
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---------- Post added 25-mar-2016 at 12:46 ----------

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pete john ‏@petejohn10 2 minhace 2 minutos

#DONBAS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR SUMMARY OF FIGHTN
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Same source

pete john ‏@petejohn10 2 h

#DONBASS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR UKIES TRIED TO CROSS RIVER WHERE REPULSED BY NAF
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---------- Post added 25-mar-2016 at 20:02 ----------

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#DONBASS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR





---------- Post added 25-mar-2016 at 20:03 ----------

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Storm Bringer ‏@StormBringer15 2 hHace 2 horas

#BREAKING UAF to infiltrate sabotage groups into DPR to carry out terrorist acts on chemical enterprizes #ukraine #donbas #ww3 #merkel #nato
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Lads, Did some research recently. Ukrainian government is likely going to launch another operation, This one may be more successful than the other attempts. Border is basically having medium intensity battles. I honestly believe that if, The Ukrainians start heavy shelling of urban areas. Putin should send the 10 battalions of Russian army guys who are claimed to have take part of the war by "trustable" western news agencies.

The western military district should pull straight forward from Luhansk and Kharkiv and cross the Dnieper river. The southern military district should land VDV and Marine battalions into Odessa, Together with the support of aviation and the navy of course. This would very satisfying to a guy a like me.

But either way, The DNR and LNR are ready for any offensives that could be launched by Ukraine.


Edit: Southern military district should deploy their forces on the border with Ukraine through Luhansk as well, of course I'm too tired forgot that the western military district lies a bit north But either way, Both these districts should deploy and pown these Cyborgs. Southern military district through Luhansk, And coast lines. Western military district through Kharkiv and Chernihiv.

^ In Rostov is being formed a new motor rifle division, name not yet given, of 10,000 and with the newest equipment. Some are calling this new division the "VSN 3rd Korps".....