The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

Khepesh wrote:^ In Rostov is being formed a new motor rifle division, name not yet given, of 10,000 and with the newest equipment. Some are calling this new division the "VSN 3rd Korps".....

   


So the two new divisions being formed in Voronezh and Belgorod would be the  


EDIT: Also the irony of the proposed bases for the new Rostov division are those areas that housed the 1500 man tent cities that did / did not house the reported "North Wind" forces

franco wrote:


So the two new divisions being formed in Voronezh and Belgorod would be the    

VSN 4th Korps and VSN 5th Korps, collectively known as 2nd Novorossiyan Front with existing 1st and 2nd Korps reinforced by 3rd Korps at Rostov being the 1st Novorrosiyan Front. A 6th Korps will be formed in PMR as the Odessa Front

VladimirSahin wrote:Lads, Did some research recently. Ukrainian government is likely going to launch another operation, This one may be more successful than the other attempts.  

Please elaborate. The meatgrinder at Avdeyevka-Yasinovataya is just a warming up. Only place suitable for a mass armored thrust would be in the south.

I also suspect there might be a secondary attack in Lugansk. A one-two punch. Attack strongly on Donetsk to make the LPR send their reserves in support and then strike in the weakened Lugansk sector. The forces buildup there is very strong for simple fixation or distraction purposes. I assume the Ukros have no strategy beyong punching a hole somewhere and make an advance to claim a victory.

The new divisions should bring NAF strength to some 80-100,000 people, am I right?

Khepash, do you know what equipment will they receive?

Ispan wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:Lads, Did some research recently. Ukrainian government is likely going to launch another operation, This one may be more successful than the other attempts.  

Please elaborate. The meatrginder at Avdeyevka-Yasinovataya is just a warming up. Only place suitable for a mass armored thrust would be in the south.

I also suspect there might be a secondary attack in Lugansk. A one-two punch. Attack strongly on Donetsk to make the LPR send their reserves in support and then strike in the weakened Lugansk sector. The forces buildup there is very strong for simple fixation or distraction purposes. I assume the Ukros have no strategy beyong punching a hole somewhere and make an advance to claim a victory.

Lugansk is litterally the worst place to try and foray into Donbass defenses. Russia can strike every attempt from Voloshino or make another Death Trek like the one they did behind Ilovaisk.

The only limited success they could have is retaking Novoazovsk.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:The new divisions should bring NAF strength to some 80-100,000 people, am I right?

Khepash, do you know what equipment will they receive?

It is not serious, yet.....

Given up forecasting when an offensive may take place as this war is so unusual, but I still believe that my prediction of a "Battle of Telmanovo" will occur. There are a number of scenarios for any offensive, but I never include Lugansk, for as KoTeMoRe says, it is simply not possible for Kiev without huge and unsustainable losses. However, between Donetsk and Lugansk is another matter and it is not impossible for an assault between Popasnya and Slavyanoserbsk, but perhaps only to tie down Lugansk forces and cause DNR forces to maintain strength on that flank when the main assault is in the south. Cutting off all DNR from generally South of Dokuchaevsk is perhaps the only realistic chance they will have of some form of success. I believe that even limited success in splitting DNR may cause huge problems for Donetsk politically and with morale. They won't succeed, but I think they will try as options for them are limited.

I think some variant of the 4 prong assault occurs:
- one down from the NW of Lugansk to engage and tie down the 2nd Corps
- one to the east or west of Gorlivka to tie down the 3rd,7th and 11th
- main assault to the south of Donetsk City to split off the southern part and ties up the 1st,5th and 100th
- secondary assault to the south mops up the 9th and units of the 1st trapped to the south

Then scream for a ceasefire...

Khepesh wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:The new divisions should bring NAF strength to some 80-100,000 people, am I right?

Khepash, do you know what equipment will they receive?

It is not serious, yet.....

In the beginning I would have never thought NAF would have 80,000-100,000 people.
They are definitely serious.

It is about new divisions for Russian Army http://warfiles.ru/show-112806-novaya-motostrelkovaya-diviziya-poyavitsya-v-rossii.html

Ispan wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:Lads, Did some research recently. Ukrainian government is likely going to launch another operation, This one may be more successful than the other attempts.  

Please elaborate. The meatgrinder at Avdeyevka-Yasinovataya is just a warming up. Only place suitable for a mass armored thrust would be in the south.

I also suspect there might be a secondary attack in Lugansk. A one-two punch. Attack strongly on Donetsk to make the LPR send their reserves in support and then strike in the weakened Lugansk sector. The forces buildup there is very strong for simple fixation or distraction purposes. I assume the Ukros have no strategy beyong punching a hole somewhere and make an advance to claim a victory.

Ukrops are know for using artillery(Onto civilian populations), If they could locate HQs and the bases near the front they could clear a route into Donetsk. But if we remember llovaisk, Ukrainians dont like making sure they have a strong rearguard, Or flank. Nor do they realize the importance of sending reinforcements.

And I'm saying that another operation might be launched because, Military reports show that there is a build up in the Ukrainian military onto the DNR border. And as we see there are clashes daily. All I hope for is a Russian military intervention this time around, I want the minsk 3 agreement to be signed when Kiev is threatened by the 6th army.

Khepesh wrote:It is about new divisions for Russian Army    http://warfiles.ru/show-112806-novaya-motostrelkovaya-diviziya-poyavitsya-v-rossii.html

Gorka reigns supreme...who needs camouflage when you have Gorka. Seriously, those cammies are seriously good looking.

I have long thought that all these ever changing "clever" camo patterns are a waste of time, wether vehicles or uniform. A short while in the field and everything is grey anyway.

I just found the link to the old MP.net photos backup on the other thread. Mega thanks to KoTeMoRe for putting it there. I have not seen it in these thread chain so I have brought it here.

Just to remind us how things have changed in the past 18 months



BTW I just found an alternate source for the picture thread of MP.net regarding Ukraine and NVR.

http://www.hollilla.com/reader.php?action=thread&thread=2982527&offset=3090

In Finnish board.

All those long gone user names!

JohninMK wrote:I just found the link to the old MP.net photos backup on the other thread. Mega thanks to KoTeMoRe for putting it there. I have not seen it in these thread chain so I have brought it here.

Just to remind us how things have changed in the past 18 months

Is this the map from 19 July 2014?


More maps:

http://kot-ivanov.livejournal.com/

http://dragon-first-1.livejournal.com/

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

JohninMK wrote:I just found the link to the old MP.net photos backup on the other thread. Mega thanks to KoTeMoRe for putting it there. I have not seen it in these thread chain so I have brought it here.

Just to remind us how things have changed in the past 18 months

Is this the map from 19 July 2014?

Yes.

Those links are in Russian.

Kiev knows they stand no chance to hold donetsk and Lugansk for more than a week ,
if ever they are successful in penetrating all the way to Russian borders. So their strategy
is more Political and Economical.  ie. Remember the vietnam war the tet offensive.

Where the vietcong do the major assault on US army positions , when they believed that
the communist were already defeated. The whole assault failed and the americans won all the battles.. but the the new attack and some americans casualties ,created major protest in US
demanding the end of the war. So the tet offensive was the battle that forced americans to retreat to America. because they saw there was no end to the war and that the enemy could still
put at major risk their lives. So it was the negative public opinion that happened after the battle ended ,what caused American troops to simply leave Vietnam and end their war.

So kiev is seeking more than anything a Political /propaganda Victory. Possibly many of the soldiers that are in the front line are former ex-convicts ,released from Jail to serve as meat shield.  it is also fundamental the role of kiev controlled media ,in the fight. Russia will have a hard time to capture all Ukraine back and gain support in ukraine,if kiev media manage to destroy the image of Russia ,after they invade Ukraine ,(after Kiev provokes Russia to invade).

So Russia needs to be careful and what tricks Kiev will bring in their new offensive.
1)their navy could be attacked if Russia invade Ukraine.
2)Their cities like Rostov could be attacked too. and Kiev will claim it was retaliation for
Russian invasion. etc.
3)Chemical attacks on azov sea to damage Crimean beaches.
4)If Russia commit the mistake to go deep in Ukraine , their nuclear reactors will be destroyed
  and blamed in Russia.
5)Biological weapons attacks on Russia or chemical ones by kiev.  etc etc etc.

some of this attacks could be done by Americans CIA or UK MI6 or Israeli mossad to get
Russia and Ukraine in a major full scale war. Remeber the snipers in kiev shooting at both sides pro Europe and Police pro Yakunovich . thats very classic old tactics of the CIA. or it could be done by kiev .

So the whole thing ,needs to be scripted in such a way ,by Ukraine media.
to make it look it was Russia who attacked Ukraine forces and they invaded and
that kiev forces are only defending itself from "Russian agression" "Russian invasion".

I dont think is going to work..just like the Malasyan  plane shutdown trick didn't worked that was aimed at blaming Russia, ,but they still could try.  So Crimea will need to be in High Alert for terror attacks ,shelling or attacks on Russian navy ,if ukraine start a full scale offensive to retake donetk and lugansk.

also it is possible that Kiev/Americans see the imminent collapse of Ukraine and will
not like Russia to take it back without firing a shot the Crimean way. So propaganda and more
propaganda demonizing Russia will be very important for kiev . To show how "Evil Russia" is killing civilians after they are provoked to invade.


What Russia should do to pressure kiev to end its war against donetsk and lugansk.
is to provoke major protest ,in other cities like kharkiv ,Odessa ,Mariupol , and demand new elections and end the war with Russia. and force Ukraine to split its forces in many cities. But this should be the last option when they feel Europe will not move a finger to pressure kiev end its war. Perhaps a Bomb in RADA and take all the government down. that will provoke a major civil war and u never know if it will be worse that ,than having Poroshenko in power. I think it will be in the end the only option if nothing else works.

Ukrops shelling the Yasinovataya interchange. Filmed looking West with Avdeevka industrial area on the right, and the buildings seen at far right are under VSN control, it's were the Serbian sniper was.

Looks to me like the orcs are not trying to damager the road, they are denying use of it with the very near hits. Seems the orcs have gotten better with their arty.

Since it's West Easter of course OSCE is on holiday.

auslander wrote:Looks to me like the orcs are not trying to damager the road, they are denying use of it with the very near hits. Seems the orcs have gotten better with their arty.

Since it's West Easter of course OSCE is on holiday.

Yeah, artillery denial. JNA learned that way to late in 90s.

Khepesh wrote:Ukrops shelling the Yasinovataya interchange.

What is that, 122mm artillery?

Ispan wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Ukrops shelling the Yasinovataya interchange.

What is that, 122mm artillery?

Yeah, 122mm D30s most likely, and they seem to be fairly close.

New video, this time they moved the camera and look directly over Avdeevka industrial area. I think camera is on top of turret of BTR with a BMP by them, not sure, just a guess. Firing is almost non stop. This and the other video are posted today, but the action is from yesterday.

Khepesh wrote:New video, this time they moved the camera and look directly over Avdeevka industrial area. I think camera is on top of turret of BTR with a BMP by them, not sure, just a guess. Firing is almost non stop. This and the other video are posted today, but the action is from yesterday.

That's just full blown action if you ask me. Not long before it really becomes hot as someone's patience will eventually run out.

Ukrainian Navy/Marines apparently, firing a BM-21 salvo (about 12 rockets each from 6 launchers) on a test range.