The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

franco wrote:Poroshenko announced refusal of Ukraine to implement Minsk Agreements
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 - 14:34

Kiev will not fulfill the Minsk Agreements and adopt appropriate amendments to the Constitution in this session of the Parliament. It was announced from the rostrum of the Parliament by President of Ukraine Poroshenko on the occasion of the anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution.

He once again put forward his conditions for the elections in Donbass and the adoption of amendments to the Constitution in the second reading.

   'The complete and lasting ceasefire must be established. Russia, a country-aggressor, country-occupant, should withdraw all its troops, weapons and equipment from the territory of Ukraine. The OSCE special monitoring mission should be given full access to all the uncontrolled territory of Ukraine, as well as to establish a permanent monitoring of the segment of the Ukrainian-Russian state border temporarily out of the Ukrainian control.
    In addition, there is to be a real disarmament of all illegal groups in the area and the establishment of security zones... Only under these conditions I will be ready to appeal to the Verkhovnaya Rada with a call to vote for the amendments in the second reading.
    And I would like to reassure everyone that this will not happen today, or tomorrow, or even on July 4 as some are spreading here such a lie, but only when  the previous conditions of security issues are clearly fulfilled,'  Poroshenko.

Putin got tricked in Ukraine and Syria by the US. What did Putin expect? The US would live up to its word? In the west, only a SIGNED written document is valid. Nothing was signed at Minsk or in Syria. So according to western tradition, the US is not obligated to fulfill anything. Remember how Reagan tricked Gorbachev with a verbal agreement? Gorbachev dissolved the USSR and guess what, NATO expanded right to Russia's border.

Had I been Putin, I would have continued supporting rebels until they capture Poroshenko in Kiev. Look how the US and Turkey back rebels since day 1, every day, for many years. Putin's offensives last a couple of weeks, at MOST a few months, in both Ukraine and in Syria, too short a time frame to accomplish anything.

Like I said, Putin is going to have trouble in Ukraine and Syria for centuries. He is too soft a man.

JohninMK wrote:
What might constitute a 'battalion tactical group'.

Combined arms formation based around either a tank or infantry battalion. In NATO terminology it is a "battle group".

Full info on the fighting yesterday is still a bit skimpy and official info put out by both sides is not very believable. However, plenty of sources are agreeing that about 20 VSN soldiers died and at least 200 ukrops. On the offficial reports of either no VSN dead or two dead, it has to be asked how can ukrops advance 4 or 5 km and take the first and second line positions and there being only two dead at most. Even twenty dead seems low, but then the probability is that this attack was known about and ukrops allowed to advance as VSN had pulled most front line forces back. It also seems that it was an attack by at least two BtTG and a company. But plenty of all these details on the normal sources and I don't intent to repeat all of it, particulary as nothing is officially confirmed. Also reported that fighting resumed at Logvinovo this morning.

Khepesh wrote:Full info on the fighting yesterday is still a bit skimpy and official info put out by both sides is not very believable. However, plenty of sources are agreeing that about 20 VSN soldiers died and at least 200 ukrops. On the offficial reports of either no VSN dead or two dead, it has to be asked how can ukrops advance 4 or 5 km and take the first and second line positions and there being only two dead at most. Even twenty dead seems low, but then the probability is that this attack was known about and ukrops allowed to advance as VSN had pulled most front line forces back. It also seems that it was an attack by at least two BtTG and a company. But plenty of all these details on the normal sources and I don't intent to repeat all of it, particulary as nothing is officially confirmed. Also reported that fighting resumed at Logvinovo this morning.

Khepesh, you are monitoring the situation in English at a much lower level than virtually anyone else and always have done. That makes you one of the most valuable posters. Much of what you describe is never confirmed officially. Please don't stint on your updates as many/most monitoring this thread don't have the skills or knowledge to follow your 'normal sources' or just put multiple events in context like you do.

Khepesh wrote:

JohninMK wrote:
What might constitute a 'battalion tactical group'.

Combined arms formation based around either a tank or infantry battalion. In NATO terminology it is a "battle group".

To elaborate further, at minimum a tank or infantry battalion supported by a company of infantry or tanks plus an artillery battery or company. May include additional engineers, air defense, etc support also.

Khepesh wrote:Full info on the fighting yesterday is still a bit skimpy and official info put out by both sides is not very believable. However, plenty of sources are agreeing that about 20 VSN soldiers died and at least 200 ukrops. On the offficial reports of either no VSN dead or two dead, it has to be asked how can ukrops advance 4 or 5 km and take the first and second line positions and there being only two dead at most. Even twenty dead seems low, but then the probability is that this attack was known about and ukrops allowed to advance as VSN had pulled most front line forces back. It also seems that it was an attack by at least two BtTG and a company. But plenty of all these details on the normal sources and I don't intent to repeat all of it, particulary as nothing is officially confirmed. Also reported that fighting resumed at Logvinovo this morning.

Have seen several mentions that negotiations took place at the end to have all the Ukrainian forces (54th brigade) removed past the contact line. Two BtTG plus a company would constitute most of a brigade, certainly a large probe or recon in force.

JohninMK wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Full info on the fighting yesterday is still a bit skimpy and official info put out by both sides is not very believable. However, plenty of sources are agreeing that about 20 VSN soldiers died and at least 200 ukrops. On the offficial reports of either no VSN dead or two dead, it has to be asked how can ukrops advance 4 or 5 km and take the first and second line positions and there being only two dead at most. Even twenty dead seems low, but then the probability is that this attack was known about and ukrops allowed to advance as VSN had pulled most front line forces back. It also seems that it was an attack by at least two BtTG and a company. But plenty of all these details on the normal sources and I don't intent to repeat all of it, particulary as nothing is officially confirmed. Also reported that fighting resumed at Logvinovo this morning.

Khepesh, you are monitoring the situation in English at a much lower level than virtually anyone else and always have done. That makes you one of the most valuable posters. Much of what you describe is never confirmed officially. Please don't stint on your updates as many/most monitoring this thread don't have the skills or knowledge to follow your 'normal sources' or just put multiple events in context like you do.

I second this!

franco wrote:
Have seen several mentions that negotiations took place at the end to have all the Ukrainian forces (54th brigade) removed past the contact line. Two BtTG plus a company would constitute most of a brigade, certainly a large probe or recon in force.

I personally have not seen any mention of negotiations with ukrops to withdraw, but it is certainly something that could happen, and would fit in with Minsk that there is a ceasfire, or "ceasefire", to let the situation calm down. The full details are still to skimpy and surrounded by a lot of claims and counter claims, but in very general terms the essentials are. VSN front line positions were weakened due to Minsk, and the tanks and artillery held in reserve at a distance to comply with Mink. Ukrops attacked in the morning using two BtTG from 54th Brigade and a company from 59th Brigade. I said yesterday that this was either a reccon in force or a provocation, and "Abkhaz" has made an announcement that it was a reccon, but I would say there was certainly a strong element of provocation in the thinking behind this. Most of the four or five km advance made by ukrops was over the "grey zone", but they did reach and pass VSN first line directly north of Logvinovo and it seems just got to second line, but not beyond. They did take, for a short time, the two hights, and were advancing in a manner on the western side that seemed to suggest they were attempting to cut between Uglegorsk and Debaltsevo. This intial attack was made under cover of very bad weather with monsoon like rain and a lot of thunder and lightning. Precisely what then happened has to be surmised as no specific operational details have been given. It seems ukrops were surprised that the reserves moved up to the front so quickly, and tho without evidence, I believe it was because of prior intelligence that this attack was coming. Ukrops were subjected to intense artillery bombardment from tubed and rocket artillery, and the units under Givi and Abkhaz then launched counter attack on ukrops from direction of Uglegorsk. Somali was presumed to be at Zaitsevo, which is not so far from Uglegorsk. Then all we know is that ukrops were given bloody nose and forced back. About the casualties is still not clear, but ukrops would have suffered badly.

About the weather and ground conditions. I have said several times that this does not stop tracked vehicles from moving, sure you can throw a track making too sharp turns on soft ground or bog down if you are not carefull, but weather does not stop war, only hinder it, and yesterday ukrops took advantage of the bad conditions. The video shows what it was like in Donetsk yesterday, and it has been like it for several days before, and it has not stopped mobile armored warfare.



Edit: I will add that this is at least the second time that Givi has had to make a "mad dash" and charge into the enemy to make sure a situation does not get out of control. It was Givi, and Motorola, who saved the situation at Marinka in January last year from total fuck up, so probably another medal and another chapter in his saga.

10 minutes ago, at 2140 local, ukrops began bombarding residential districts of Dokuchaevsk from Novotroitskoe.

Today rail wagons loaded with tanks, artillery and Grad have been moving down to the LNR front thru Lisichansk. On this occasion OSCE have actual expressed concern...

Away from the front any hope for Kiev getting a decent deal out of the EU is slowly going down the drain as the repercussions of the Dutch peoples no ripple on

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160630/1042212178/ukraine-netherlands-eu-deal.html

Another view, from Fortruss

June 30, 2016 - Yuri Kovalchuk, PolitNavigator - Translated by J. Arnoldski

Yesterday’s UAF operation near Uglegorsk in the direction of Debaltsevo was a fairly successful reconnaissance mission for the enemy by means of battle. The military leadership of the self-proclaimed republics should soon draw necessary conclusions from the incident. The next blow by the Ukrainians could bear a more massive character and have far more serious consequences.

Blinking when the enemy is moving a sufficiently large number of units is costly. Of course, it is impossible to obtain precise information from military men, but by drawing upon information from disparate sources we can conclude that the NAF’s positions were attacked by a tank company supported by infantry and artillery. Why did no one know about this, and why did reinforcements come just at the moment when our solders were being driven back behind the first line of defense?

It is also unclear what exactly these lines of defense are if their garrison was pushed back 4km in an hour. When in winter of 2015 the UAF pulled out from Debaltsevo and Uglegorsk, they had built such fortifications that almost every strategic point had to be bombed for a day before throwing in assault troops. What prevented the NAF from digging in and building fortifications is unclear. After all, they’ve had more than a year.

However, it is very likely that the problem was an insufficient number of personnel in position or a lack of anti-tank weapons and sufficient ammunition. It must be a joke that the command is taking vitally important weapons from the front line and leaving only RPG-7’s and “Bumblebees” which can destroy armored vehicles only at a relatively close range.

As concerns personnel, the events of recent months have clearly shown that soldiers have nothing to do 40-50 km from the front line. Today, in the rear cities, an enormous number of servicemen is present which long ago should have been put at arm’s length from the front in order to avoid having to throw personnel into battle straight from trucks, which means large losses and disorder.

I’d also like to say a few words about the official version of emergency incident. When you hear reports that there are “no casualties,” there’s the impression that Tymchuk has crept here and bit everyone. Soldiers themselves, as well as medics close to them, are saying that there are losses, quite serious ones at that.

As for the losses of the enemy, they are “being counted.” There is no doubt that the UAF’s losses are also significant because a storming party, even with significant numerical superiority, always has large losses. But the whole point is that this is not important for the UAF, as to this day Kiev still possesses considerable superiority in numbers and equipment.

In the near future, we can expect new attempts at a breakthrough. Kiev has tried and realized that breaking the defense of the NAF is possible. Yesterday, the UAF did not have an intention of consolidating, but next time they could strike at a certain point and then dig in and thus create a dangerous, disturbing bulge like what happened near Yasinovataya.

It is time for the command of the 1st and 2nd corps to analyze the situation and urgently adopt the necessary measures to prevent further trouble.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/06/uaf-uglegorsk-offensive-wake-up-call.html

In the present situation it would be normal military procedure to have the front line lightly manned and armed to act primarily as a "trip wire". Heavily armed reinforcements then rush in to stop further advance.

DPR negotiator sees no chances to hold Donbass elections by year end

More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/885614

JohninMK wrote:Another view, from Fortruss

The author of that has not understood fully and IMO is ignoring the constraints of Minsk on what weapons are at the front. While it is true that at places like Yasinovataya and Zaitsevo there are heavier weapons, and Zakharchenko has stated that in parts of the front that are constantly attacked then heavy weapons will be in place, at Logvinovo there has not been much activity since February last year, and so no excuse to have heavier weapons on front line. Given that, it is not a surprise that ukrops advanced as far as they did. Had ukrops advanced much further towards Debaltsevo they would have encountered "problems". As it was, Givi and Abkhaz, acting as what could be called a forward reserve, were sufficient to force ukrops back, the main reserve did not need to move forward as the nature of the threat was not that great. Had this been part of ukrops offensive, the attack would have been made by probably at least four brigades, maybe more, and under heavy covering bombardment, including long range bombardments on the main reserve positions. It became clear very quickly that this was not THE offensive, so was dealt with in a way that, IMO, did not show a certain hand. The article is also wrong on the size of the attacking force and gives much to low an estimate. There is also the issue that when the main offensive comes, it is in the nature of these things that ukrops will have success in some places if they apply sufficient force correctly, and this will look alarming of course, but this is what the main reserve is for, and the geographics work in favor of reserves being able to move to whatever part of the front in reasonable time, excepting in the South. I'm not sure that ukrops would have gained in any way from their mini offensive, except to learn that there are no extensive minefields for them to deal with, they of course have heavily mined their rear areas, and yesterday lost some vehicles and men to their own mines, unmarked to due to their stupidity.

Edit: However, I agree with the spirit in which the article was written, even if too gloomy.

For users of Yandex maps be aware that for reasons that are difficult to understand, they are renaming cities in LDNR to the new names that Kiev wants as part of the de-communisation process. Krazny Partizan now shows as Betmanovo [Бетманово] Torez renamed to Chistyakovo [Чистяково] Telmanovo to Boikovskoe [Боиковское] Komsomolskoe to Kalmiusskoe [Кальмиусское] Stakhanov to Kadievka [Kадиевка] Kirovsk to Golybovka [Голубовка] and there are others. Google Earth still shows the correct names.

National Anthem of Novorossia

This is terrible. Ukrainians and Russians are killing each other. Americans are laughing.

Resistance wrote:This is terrible. Ukrainians and Russians are killing each other. Americans are laughing.

Is this guy? for real? A troll from the USA?

He / she knows Americans are laughing, how? He lives in America?

I live in the USA, and I know of NO Americans who are laughing.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

Resistance wrote:This is terrible. Ukrainians and Russians are killing each other. Americans are laughing.

Is this guy? for real? A troll from the USA?

He / she knows Americans are laughing, how? He lives in America?

I live in the USA, and I know of NO Americans who are laughing.

It's just Flagship Victory/Ultron/however many other aliases he had under a new name. Just ignore him

I put him on 'ignore' after reading his first post. It's obvious who he is as Ivan said.

On Saturday, Ukraine has received a consignment of counter-battery radars from the United States. Kiev is preparing to deploy the “cutting edge” equipment in the war-torn Donbass region, President Petro Poroshenko announced.

The consignment of 14 pieces of equipment includes lightweight AN/TPQ-49 and AN / TPQ-36 counter fire radars designed to detect and destroy artillery, the Ukrainian president’s website reads. The AN/TPQ-36 radar is aimed at localizing firing positions of mortars, artillery weapons and multiple-launch rocket systems. Such radars have been used by the American military for years, but are in the hands of the Ukrainian military for the first time.

With an operating range of 25 kilometers, the radars will help to detect possible attacks against Ukrainian Army in Donbas in timely fashion, allowing saving “hundreds of lives,” Poroshenko claimed during the delivery ceremony. “Ukrainians keep their powder dry, and if there’s a threat of an offensive against us, I do not advise anyone to check how much time we’ll need to deploy our artillery and rebuff an attack of an aggressor,” Poroshenko said.

Talking on the delivery, Poroshenko stressed that “this is just a small part of military assistance that the US government is expected to provide to Ukraine this year.” He added that Kiev is waiting for $500 million aid package from Washington. “We sincerely look forward to further enhancing our cooperation," Poroshenko said, adding that Ukraine “stands for freedom and democracy of the entire European continent.”

Begging with outstretched arm for financial assistance seems to have become a tradition for current Kiev authorities. It was reported earlier that the United States had approved a $335 million aid package to Ukraine that includes providing Kiev with new military technologies. The US has also trained Ukrainian troops since 2014 and provided the country’s army with defensive equipment.

With the upcoming NATO summit in Poland, the Ukrainian government hopes to receive a “comprehensive” military aid package from the alliance. Trying to heat up frenzy in the lead up to the event and apparently to secure allocation of funding, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman claimed that it is Moscow that is acting aggressively “close to NATO borders."

The NATO summit will be held in Warsaw July 8-9.

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160703/1042352534/ukraine-gets-US-radars.html

Ukrainian Navy refuses to accept two new gunboats due to flaws

Boats intended to convey the military to the Day of the Naval Forces of Ukraine, which is celebrated on 30 July.

"Unfortunately, in the course of testing and shooting identified numerous shortcomings in the armored structure, so the fleet can not take them into operation as such. Now tests are suspended to eliminate miscalculations ", - said the source publication.

"Boats today (2 July) stood at 19 berth marine station, but plaques with their names covered with a cloth. According to our data, armored boat U-174 will be called "Berdyansk", and U-175 - "Ackerman" "- resource writes.

Although the acceptance of boats and delayed, but the ceremony for the award of their names will be held, as previously assumed, on the day of Naval Forces of Ukraine with the participation Poroshenko confirmed in a publication.

The newspaper reminds that in April "Lenin smithy, laid another 4 armored boats of the same project (58155).


??Weren't they made at a shipyard owned by Poroshenko???

Bezler has said that Alexander Bushuev "Zaryar",  commander of 7th Brigade, has been killed, but without giving details. Other sources say that he was killed as his car hit a mine in Sovyetsky district of eastern Makeevka, possibly on a railway crossing. Earlier it had been reported from Makeevka that an explosion had been heard. Nothing official on this, but Bezler has no reason to lie on something like this, and for some time ukrops DRG have been active around Makeevka-Enakievo-Gorlovka. However, it is possible that "Zaryar" is critically wounded, but lack of confirmation that he still lives is not good.

Edit: Becomes more possible he is alive, but perhaps barely...

JohninMK wrote:On Saturday, Ukraine has received a consignment of counter-battery radars from the United States. Kiev is preparing to deploy the “cutting edge” equipment in the war-torn Donbass region, President Petro Poroshenko announced.

The consignment of 14 pieces of equipment includes lightweight AN/TPQ-49 and AN / TPQ-36 counter fire radars designed to detect and destroy artillery, the Ukrainian president’s website reads. The AN/TPQ-36 radar is aimed at localizing firing positions of mortars, artillery weapons and multiple-launch rocket systems. Such radars have been used by the American military for years, but are in the hands of the Ukrainian military for the first time.

With an operating range of 25 kilometers, the radars will help to detect possible attacks against Ukrainian Army in Donbas in timely fashion, allowing saving “hundreds of lives,” Poroshenko claimed during the delivery ceremony. “Ukrainians keep their powder dry, and if there’s a threat of an offensive against us, I do not advise anyone to check how much time we’ll need to deploy our artillery and rebuff an attack of an aggressor,” Poroshenko said.

Talking on the delivery, Poroshenko stressed that “this is just a small part of military assistance that the US government is expected to provide to Ukraine this year.” He added that Kiev is waiting for $500 million aid package from Washington.  “We sincerely look forward to further enhancing our cooperation," Poroshenko said, adding that Ukraine “stands for freedom and democracy of the entire European continent.”

Begging with outstretched arm for financial assistance seems to have become a tradition for current Kiev authorities. It was reported earlier that the United States had approved a $335 million aid package to Ukraine that includes providing Kiev with new military technologies. The US has also trained Ukrainian troops since 2014 and provided the country’s army with defensive equipment.

With the upcoming NATO summit in Poland, the Ukrainian government hopes to receive a “comprehensive” military aid package from the alliance. Trying to heat up frenzy in the lead up to the event and apparently to secure allocation of funding, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman claimed that it is Moscow that is acting aggressively “close to NATO borders."

The NATO summit will be held in Warsaw July 8-9.

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160703/1042352534/ukraine-gets-US-radars.html

Bad news. Looks like NAF will lose the war. NAF has no such radars and Russia won't give any equipment under the peace agreement with the Americans. Now UAF can locate and destroy NAF artillery and NAF will then be overrun.

Alexander Bushuev "Zarya" died, he had been an officer in VDV before fighting in Donbass and becoming a kombrig. He was not a prominent figure and not well known, but he had a reputation for fighting against corruption. Two guards died with him. Time will tell if he can be considered as the fifth.....